Red Sox announce Dave Dombrowski is their new president of baseball operations.

[EricFeczko]

 
Under Dombrowski, the Tigers were one-year wonders with an ace and a superb #3 hitter. They became a dominant team once they got two aces and two superb hitters hitting 3-4. This is also the formula used by the Theo.

I'm not trying to pick on you here, but I think people are forgetting/ignoring DD's earlier history with the marlins and the expos. In both cases he did a pretty good job building the farm system. Most of the players on the 2003 Marlins team were drafted by him during his tenure between 1993 and 2001.

In the case of the Tigers, he took over when they were one of the worst teams in baseball; in his first two seasons the tigers had 100+ losses. DD was the guy who drafted verlander, granderson, nate robertson. He traded for Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister for basically peanuts (best player in the deals was Jacob Turner, IIRC).

He may not be analytical, but DD has an excellent track record for assembling both farm and MLB talent.

 

[WenZink]

The Dombrowski hiring is just bad news.  Horrible.  I suppose if 2004, 2007 and 2013 had never happened, I'd be such a desperate Red Sox fan that I'd see him as the last, best chance to win it all before the franchise went 0-100, but 3 world championships has brought me peace.
 
As bad as the consensus opinion of the contracts given to Hanley, Panda and Porcello, Dombrowski has given out 3 of the worst long-term contracts ever.
 
7 yrs/$180 million to, then, 30 year old Justin Verlander.
8 yrs/$248 million to Miguel Cabrera that begins, NEXT year, when Fatty turns 33.
9 yrs/$214 million to SUPER-fatty, Prince Fielder for his years aged 28-37.
 
Based on those contracts, I'd say the first thing Dombrowski does is give 4 year contract extensions to Panda, Porcello and Hanley.
 
Johnny Cueto, David Price Come on Down!  8 year deals for 30 year old pitchers.. No problem!
 
At best we get at least a couple legitimate runs at another world championship.
 
Ben Cherington must be in complete agony, turning over the farm system to Dombrowski.  He also must be kicking himself in the pants, for too much hoarding of the kids, knowing that in the short run John Henry & Co want results.  But I don't think a guy like Dombrowski gives two craps about a kid like what Anderson Espinoza might be in 2019.  The future is now.  He's looking for one more big score before he retires and trades quips with Harold Reynolds and Dan Plesac on MLB.TV.

 

[twibnotes]

Is he very old school/stats-adverse or something? 

Wren is said to be more traditional, and you could worry that Sox ownership is making a reactionary swing from saber to traditional.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Time to be concerned.  According to Dave Cameron, the hiring of Dombrowski suggests a probable shift away from sabermetrics, a change in organizational philosophy:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-hire-dave-dombrowski-signal-change-in-philosophy/

 

[moondog80]

Just curious: why is everyone so scared of Frank Wren? The Upton/Uggla deals were bad, but they weren't really panned at the time. Can't you say the same thing about the Hanley/Sandoval deals that Cherington made?
 

 
Unless you avoid major long term commitments altogether like Oakland or Tampa, it is impossible to avoid deals like Upton's.  You simply can't guess right all the time, especially when FA deals almost exclusively with guys on the wrong end of the aging curve.  Theo gave 50 million to Edwin Jackson and then released him halfway through year two with a nifty ERA+ of 71 to show for it.

 

[grimshaw]

Time to be concerned.  According to Dave Cameron, the hiring of Dombrowski suggests a probable shift away from sabermetrics, a change in organizational philosophy:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-hire-dave-dombrowski-signal-change-in-philosophy/

I don't think a move away from a complete emphasis on sabermetrics is necessarily cause for concern.
 
The Giants and Royals have done really well in recent years and they aren't known as cutting edge in that department.  The Royals have won by developing their farm system, having a bunch of base runners who wreak havoc, playing defense and having a ton of 95 mph chuckers in the pen. 
 
Regardless of how the board feels about Dombrowski and Wren, they were both successful during their runs.  Wren was 2nd in winning percentage behind the Cards during his term in the NL, and we all know how competitive the Tigers have been.  The Red Sox scraped by that team by the skin of their teeth.  There aren't any executives out there available who have had more success than the current regime.
 
Dombrowski wasn't my first choice, but I'm just saying that there is more than one way to win a championship.

 

[21st Century Sox]

I am not wringing my hands over Wren, or whomever DD brings in as GM.
 
End of the day, DD is pulling the strings....GM job will be weak under him.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I am not wringing my hands over Wren, or whomever DD brings in as GM.
 
End of the day, DD is pulling the strings....GM job will be weak under him.

I agree with this. Does anyone think that Jed Hoyer is really pulling the strings for the Cubs?

 

[twibnotes]

I wonder if Henry sees using sabermetrics as table stakes now. Everyone does it, even more traditionally run teams. Maybe being a bit more of a scouting-lean is a potential opportunity to outperform other teams in the same way that being more numbers-driven was the differentiator in the past.

Think we all agree the best clubs use the right mix of both - just trying to get inside Henry's head on this one.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I am not wringing my hands over Wren, or whomever DD brings in as GM.
 
End of the day, DD is pulling the strings....GM job will be weak under him.

This is what I don't get. Why would any experienced GM want to come in to this situation knowing that Dombrowski is going to be calling the shots.

 

[mfried]

They won't make a move to replace Ben till probably after the last out of the World Series.  There's only two weeks left of any meaningful changes a GM can make before then (or whenever the waiver deadline is), so I'm sure they'll take their sweet time and really examine all avenues open to them.  Same goes with manager.

Ben opted out because Dombrowski would limit GM territoriality.  This move is definitely a no confidence vote in Ben.  I also anticipate a very compliant GM who would enjoy a second fiddle job. A balancing philosophy (DiPoto?) could work, but the offer to Ben was strictly a public gesture. 
 
Ed: (Sorry I missed other posts which said the same thing.)

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

 
He had problems with the Giants organization, less problems with teammates, right?  It is my understanding he was a bit of a leader with the Giants.  That isn't correct?
 
And then I read this earlier in the 2015 season:

 
That article's from March, dude. That's your rebuttal on Pablo? I mean, he had to come out of a game in the 6th inning due to dehydration. He's fucking Instagramming on the shitter during games. Team leader?
 

So basically you mean you're going to speculate wildly without any evidence of any unwillingness on the part of either?

 
So contrarian of you! Except for the fact that he presented some.
 
Defending the leadership qualities of Hanley and Pablo. Now I've seen it all.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I would be really surprised if Dipoto stays with Boston or is offered the GM position.  Look what happened with the Angels: Dipoto had to share power with baseball traditionalists and wanted no part of it.  The Tigers don't use defensive shifts all that much (comparatively speaking) and Dipoto had problems with Mike Scioscia on this issue.    

 

[SoxLegacy]

 
Regardless of how the board feels about Dombrowski and Wren, they were both successful during their runs.  Wren was 2nd in winning percentage behind the Cards during his term in the NL, and we all know how competitive the Tigers have been. 
 

While this is true, both of those divisions were very weak over the course of Dombrowski's and Wren's tenures.

I have an overall negative vibe on this hire. Dombrowski gave out stupidly long & expensive contracts that got him pilloried (and rightly so) on here as well as by other analysts, has no connection to anyone in the Red Sox organization (perhaps leading to no loyalty to either established players or prospects), is not known as an analytics guy, and is old by baseball standards.

What I really hope we don't regret is seeing Cherington's vision of a perennial playoff contender fed by one of the best minor league systems disappear. While this season is a great disappointment, hiring Dombrowski seems like an overreaction by ownership.

 

[shepard50]

It's fair to say that there will always be bad FA signings. It's also fair to say that Uggla and BJ Upton where beyond anything that the Red Sox have on the books at the moment. Wren signed two guys who were terrible on both sides of the ball, and who were (not insignificantly) negative value for their tenures as Braves. Ultimately, the Braves paid other teams to take them.

That said, he drafted pretty well.

Notable Winners:
2007 Heyward, Freeman
2008 Kimbrel, Zeke Spruill, Brett Oberholtzer
2009 Mike Minor, David Hale
2010 Andrellton Simmons, Evan Gatis, Joey Terdaslovich
2011 Tommy Lastella
2012 Alex Wood

 

[HomeRunBaker]

People evolve in their stances. Hopefully DD has.

I doubt DD would ever do a 180 and be patient with someone elses prospects.....actually I'm certain he wouldn't. He wasn't hired to not make changes. Be prepared for fireworks as they seem to be inevitable with these young kids.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I would be really surprised if Dipoto stays with Boston or is offered the GM position.  Look what happened with the Angels: Dipoto had to share power with baseball traditionalists and wanted no part of it.  The Tigers don't use defensive shifts all that much (comparatively speaking) and Dipoto had problems with Mike Scioscia on this issue.    

 
John Henry is not Arte Moreno, and Dombrowski is not likely to retain John Farrell as team manager.  Developing a successful hedge fund business requires a fundamentally more advanced understanding of quantitative data than building a billboard/advertising business. 
 
And I don't see that many similarities, or many reasons that Dipoto or any other "junior" GM candidates would refuse to work under Dombrowski. Beane's surely out of the running with this move, of course.  However, how much worse would it be to report to Dombrowski than to Moreno? Or Lucchino, for that matter?

 

[threecy]

Here's a question...do we have any reason to believe that Cherington liked being General Manager and the schedule/work that goes into that?  It sort of seems like he ended up as GM in 2011 by default, after over a decade with the team.  While there's little doubt that Theo enjoys his job, did Cherington ever seem to be enjoying his role?
 
With a young family, perhaps the rough last few seasons and recent shake up were enough for him to decide to look for a less demanding position?

 

[irinmike]

The hand wringing here about the plight of the Sox has been overwhelming recently.  The cries for the firing of Farrell and Cherington have been just as loud.  Now that the ownership has made a change, its the wrong one, according to many who post here regularly.  How about letting this settle in for a while to see where it goes?  One thing is clear, the Sox  were on a path to perennial mediocrity, if no changes were made.  A change of leadership at the top, was obviously needed.  I for one will let these changes, and the many others with player personnel this off season play out, before criticizing them. 

 

[jimbobim]

I think I agree most with what Passan wrote http://sports.yahoo.com/news/short-sightedness-of-the-red-sox-will-work-only-if-they-give-dave-dombrowski-autonomy-long-065034098.html
 
Most notably I think Henry would theoretically be attracted to the idea of Ben sticking around because he does love how the farm has produced. However, most every significant ML move this year has not turned out well. I do think Henry shares a big share of the pitching staff blame. Remember, he was the last Red Sox visitor to Lester and he wasn't going to Theo land. Cherington in response attempted to build an offense that would support an average staff. Well, the offense was extremely disappointing in large part to Napoli, Vic, ( Ortiz and Pedroia to lesser but still important extents). Additionally, this put all the offensive pressure on Hanley and Pablo to carry the team which while they may being paid that way is not the type of players they are. 
 
DD will inevitably be dealing and he's done very very well in that area. The quotes from Henry at the Presser will be must hear/read. One wonders how the deadline would have been handled if Ben knew he wasn't going to see the 2016 opener....  

 

[joe dokes]

And I don't see that many similarities, or many reasons that Dipoto or any other "junior" GM candidates would refuse to work under Dombrowski. Beane's surely out of the running with this move, of course.  However, how much worse would it be to report to Dombrowski than to Moreno? Or Lucchino, for that matter?

 
Maybe the GM-does-it-all model is almost done. I think DiPoto, for example, would have a lot less trouble being directly under Dombrowksi than taking orders directly from a billionaire baseball know-nothing like Moreno, who has been more hands-on than Henry will every be. (I think).  Doesn't mean he'd do it.  Who knows, maybe his first recommendation in his new job was to hire a guy to whom the GM reports.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Seems to me that about 95% of sabermetric analysis is a commodity at this point. The Sox used their sabermetric edge to accumulate and draft middle infielders who are good athletes and can defend but had little hitting projection. the idea being the PED era would render defense and baserunning and strike throwing/ground ball pitching more valuable. That theory has failed miserably. There is countless other analyses that we don't know about, of course, but getting upset because they are maybe deemphasizing sabermetrics seems misguided 
 
Does anyone really believe John Henry team is going to totally move away from sabermetric analysis? The weakness of the Sox has been major league player analysis. and perhaps the last couple drafts (TBD). I'm guessing Henry sees an opportunity to take what the Sox have analytically and combine it with one of the more successful talent evaluators in the past 25 years.

 

[moondog80]

It's fair to say that there will always be bad FA signings. It's also fair to say that Uggla and BJ Upton where beyond anything that the Red Sox have on the books at the moment. Wren signed two guys who were terrible on both sides of the ball, and who were (not insignificantly) negative value for their tenures as Braves. Ultimately, the Braves paid other teams to take them.
 

 
 
In his last season with Tampa, Upton had an OPS+ of 108, WAR of 2.8.  His numbers showed him to be around average defensively, maybe a touch below.  And he was only 27, seemed to be fairly durable and in good shape.  I don't know anyone who expected he would drop off a cliff the way he did in Atlanta.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

Seems to me that about 95% of sabermetric analysis is a commodity at this point. The Sox used their sabermetric edge to accumulate and draft middle infielders who are good athletes and can defend but had little hitting projection. the idea being the PED era would render defense and baserunning and strike throwing/ground ball pitching more valuable. That theory has failed miserably. There is countless other analyses that we don't know about, of course, but getting upset because they are maybe deemphasizing sabermetrics seems misguided 
 
Does anyone really believe John Henry team is going to totally move away from sabermetric analysis? The weakness of the Sox has been major league player analysis. and perhaps the last couple drafts (TBD). I'm guessing Henry sees an opportunity to take what the Sox have analytically and combine it with one of the more successful talent evaluators in the past 25 years.

 
The problem is that, like I alluded to earlier, over the past 10 years or so, the Red Sox have a history of wild overreactions. So its easy to see the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.
 
If you have it right - that JWH is trying to get a Dombrowski and a DiPoto and get some league of extraordinary gentlemen set up in the front office - then I'm going to be thrilled. But handing Dombrowski the keys and having him run the organization the same way he did Detroit would be disappointing.

 

[soxhop411]

I doubt DD would ever do a 180 and be patient with someone elses prospects.....actually I'm certain he wouldn't. He wasn't hired to not make changes. Be prepared for fireworks as they seem to be inevitable with these young kids.

Eh. I doubt that DD will raid the farm.

 

[OCD SS]

I wonder if Henry sees using sabermetrics as table stakes now. Everyone does it, even more traditionally run teams. Maybe being a bit more of a scouting-lean is a potential opportunity to outperform other teams in the same way that being more numbers-driven was the differentiator in the past.

Think we all agree the best clubs use the right mix of both - just trying to get inside Henry's head on this one.

 
The other side to this was bringing in Dipoto to do the team-wide evaluation; he clearly had an analytical bent. Now if we completely believe the press reports and he was Ben's hiring, then maybe this ship has sailed, but those same reports had DD asking Ben to stay, so maybe he sees that the FO is invested in sabermetrics and working with this data is part of the job with the Sox (I certainly hope). If we start to see news that Bill James is quitting, then we're in trouble.
 
I hope Dipoto is the new GM; hopefully he can bring a balance to the FO with DD. It has to at least be better than working with Mike Scioscia.

 

[shoebox91]

I have a hard time believing that they don't at least give JF a chance to come back and manage this team if he's healthy. I think the players would be pissed if they fired him while on medical leave for cancer.

 

[Toe Nash]

  One thing is clear, the Sox  were on a path to perennial mediocrity, if no changes were made.  

This is 100% wrong. The Sox have the top 1 or 2 collection of minor league talent in the majors and multiple young players who have already broken in and look to have star potential. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Seems to me that about 95% of sabermetric analysis is a commodity at this point. The Sox used their sabermetric edge to accumulate and draft middle infielders who are good athletes and can defend but had little hitting projection. the idea being the PED era would render defense and baserunning and strike throwing/ground ball pitching more valuable. That theory has failed miserably. There is countless other analyses that we don't know about, of course, but getting upset because they are maybe deemphasizing sabermetrics seems misguided 
 
Does anyone really believe John Henry team is going to totally move away from sabermetric analysis? The weakness of the Sox has been major league player analysis. and perhaps the last couple drafts (TBD). I'm guessing Henry sees an opportunity to take what the Sox have analytically and combine it with one of the more successful talent evaluators in the past 25 years.

Great point. There is a fundamental strategy for keeping Ben around to "assist in the transition" which appears to be getting DD up to speed on how Henry wants his analytics to be interpreted and applied.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

 
The problem is that, like I alluded to earlier, over the past 10 years or so, the Red Sox have a history of wild overreactions. So its easy to see the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.
 
If you have it right - that JWH is trying to get a Dombrowski and a DiPoto and get some league of extraordinary gentlemen set up in the front office - then I'm going to be thrilled. But handing Dombrowski the keys and having him run the organization the same way he did Detroit would be disappointing.

 
Let's talk baby and bathwater. Given the OF glut (and assuming Hanley is immovable), whose trade has SoSH reaching for the pitchforks?
 
Betts
Rusney 
JBJ
Benintendi
Margot
 
Okay, Betts is pitchfork time. But brace yourselves for any of the others to move.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

 
Let's talk baby and bathwater. Given the OF glut (and assuming Hanley is immovable), whose trade has SoSH reaching for the pitchforks?
 
Betts
Rusney 
JBJ
Benintendi
Margot
 
Okay, Betts is pitchfork time. But brace yourselves for any of the others to move.

And if it returns legit major league pitching, which is something DD has a strong track record with, then it won't be a bad move.  This team is in good shape from a positional standpoint.  They need dudes who can throw the pill.  I think DD can help with that greatly. 

 

[GreyisGone]

I think I agree most with what Passan wrote http://sports.yahoo.com/news/short-sightedness-of-the-red-sox-will-work-only-if-they-give-dave-dombrowski-autonomy-long-065034098.html
 
Most notably I think Henry would theoretically be attracted to the idea of Ben sticking around because he does love how the farm has produced. However, most every significant ML move this year has not turned out well. I do think Henry shares a big share of the pitching staff blame. Remember, he was the last Red Sox visitor to Lester and he wasn't going to Theo land. Cherington in response attempted to build an offense that would support an average staff. Well, the offense was extremely disappointing in large part to Napoli, Vic, ( Ortiz and Pedroia to lesser but still important extents). Additionally, this put all the offensive pressure on Hanley and Pablo to carry the team which while they may being paid that way is not the type of players they are. 
 
DD will inevitably be dealing and he's done very very well in that area. The quotes from Henry at the Presser will be must hear/read. One wonders how the deadline would have been handled if Ben knew he wasn't going to see the 2016 opener....  

This is a real strange article. You can't ignore the MLB team has sucked 3 of the last 4 years and basically every move made the last 2 years has been awful. It's the GMs job to win MLB games, not the top prospects rankings. The article basically says Ben should run a minor league scouting department not build an MLB roster.

 

[rembrat]

Time to be concerned.  According to Dave Cameron, the hiring of Dombrowski suggests a probable shift away from sabermetrics, a change in organizational philosophy:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-hire-dave-dombrowski-signal-change-in-philosophy/

 
This would be horrific. People wanted change, well here it is. 

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I have a hard time believing that they don't at least give JF a chance to come back and manage this team if he's healthy. I think the players would be pissed if they fired him while on medical leave for cancer.

 

How do you think they might feel if Farrell gets shifted to a Front Office pitching evaluation job instead, where he rarely has to leave Boston and its incredible cancer-care centers, while not having to take a pay cut?
 
I have a hard time thinking there's anything to be pissed off about. And there's likely to be at most five core players from Farrell's 2013 championship season remaining on the team (Ortiz, Pedroia, Buchholz, Uehara, and Tazawa). 
 
And it probably won't even be that many who report to Ft. Myers next spring.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

 
Let's talk baby and bathwater. Given the OF glut (and assuming Hanley is immovable), whose trade has SoSH reaching for the pitchforks?
 
Betts
Rusney 
JBJ
Benintendi
Margot
 
Okay, Betts is pitchfork time. But brace yourselves for any of the others to move.

 
The baby in this analogy was more the scouting department that has stocked the cupboard. I don't mind trading a Manny Margot, I mind getting rid of the people with a strong track record of finding Manny Margots.
 
Prospects exist to be traded, sure. But the simple math of winning 90 games with $180M is that a large percentage of your production has to come from homegrown players. You can't pay market rates for your production and get to 90 wins. Ain't gonna happen. Look at any half decent team. The majority of their talent comes from within. Trades and FA just put the finishing touches.

 

[shepard50]

 
 
In his last season with Tampa, Upton had an OPS+ of 108, WAR of 2.8.  His numbers showed him to be around average defensively, maybe a touch below.  And he was only 27, seemed to be fairly durable and in good shape.  I don't know anyone who expected he would drop off a cliff the way he did in Atlanta.

 
 
In his last season with Tampa, Upton had an OPS+ of 108, WAR of 2.8.  His numbers showed him to be around average defensively, maybe a touch below.  And he was only 27, seemed to be fairly durable and in good shape.  I don't know anyone who expected he would drop off a cliff the way he did in Atlanta.

His peripherals screamed "stay away"! He was striking out three or four time for every walk. His OBP had been low .300s for years and he had an OPS over .800 once in the seven years he had been in the majors, that one time was 6 years previous. Like Uggla, he earned his contract on a great season rather than on a sustained pattern performance.


Read this thread. (Where did the formatting box go?)

http://tinyurl.com/orbmvbj

 

[SoxLegacy]

This is a real strange article. You can't ignore the MLB team has sucked 3 of the last 4 years and basically every move made the last 2 years has been awful. It's the GMs job to win MLB games, not the top prospects rankings. The article basically says Ben should run a minor league scouting department not build an MLB roster.

Well, that is apparently Ben's strength--minor league scouting and acquisition. I for one am sorry to see him leave the Sox because he built quite a farm system. I am not on board the Dombrowski wagon. I hope I am wrong, but I fear we will regret his hiring. 

 

[shepard50]

This is 100% wrong. The Sox have the top 1 or 2 collection of minor league talent in the majors and multiple young players who have already broken in and look to have star potential. 

While I agree with your assessment, I disagree with your language.

It might be more fair to say that "this is 100% UNPROVEN"

The Red Sox have finished last 3 out of 4 years, which is, in fact, perennial mediocrity.

 

[SoxLegacy]

 
How do you think they might feel if Farrell gets shifted to a Front Office pitching evaluation job instead, where he rarely has to leave Boston and its incredible cancer-care centers, while not having to take a pay cut?
 
I have a hard time thinking there's anything to be pissed off about. And there's likely to be at most five core players from Farrell's 2013 championship season remaining on the team (Ortiz, Pedroia, Buchholz, Uehara, and Tazawa). 
 
And it probably won't even be that many who report to Ft. Myers next spring.
 
 

Way to put an even greater negative spin on the Dombrowski deal.....I kid......somwhat.

 

[joe dokes]

 I have a hard time believing that they don't at least give JF a chance to come back and manage this team if he's healthy. I think the players would be pissed if they fired him while on medical leave for cancer.

 
I understand the optics, but I think the players might just as easily figure that, but for the cancer, Farrell was gone already. And now he and the team have a chance to make his exit more graceful if they choose that route.

 

[grimshaw]

 
How do you think they might feel if Farrell gets shifted to a Front Office pitching evaluation job instead, where he rarely has to leave Boston and its incredible cancer-care centers, while not having to take a pay cut?
 
I have a hard time thinking there's anything to be pissed off about. And there's likely to be at most five core players from Farrell's 2013 championship season remaining on the team (Ortiz, Pedroia, Buchholz, Uehara, and Tazawa). 
 
And it probably won't even be that many who report to Ft. Myers next spring.

Not to mention, it isn't really fair to Dombrowski to keep a guy around who wasn't his first choice (assuming he actually isn't).
I would bet they do everything they can to keep him in the organization but away from the managers seat given the man love from above.

 

[JimBoSox9]

 
Under Dombrowski, the Tigers were one-year wonders with an ace and a superb #3 hitter. They became a dominant team once they got two aces and two superb hitters hitting 3-4. This is also the formula used by the Theo.
 
The Sox have none of those things presently, except for the 40-year old DH who hits 4th. That's why they're in last place. 
 
Now, the Sox do have two handfuls of 20-25 year old kids with promise, who may yet become some of these things that great teams need. However, it's not going to happen overnight. Trying to build for 2016 ignores the trainwreck in the bullpen, the disaster of the left-side corner defense, and the sham for the rotation. 

 
I actually quite agree with this.  Logically speaking, with the nascent lineup core but pitching contributions still in the early stages of ripening, the absolute best thing DD could do walking in here is say "OK, how do we win the AL East in 2017?" and approach everything with that endpoint.  I suspect that's not a satisfactory date to hear for much of the fanbase and this board, though.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Food for thought: If ownership / DD was sincere in their attempts to retain Ben, and really wanted to keep him around, would we even know Ben has decided to move on at this point?
 
The rapid departure of Cherington makes it seem like the conversation went something like:
 
DD: I'd like to keep you on as a special assistant. You'll keep your title, but I'll be making all of the important decisions except maybe draft picks. Does that sound like something you would be interested in?

BC: Not really.
 
DD: Oh, okay. Well good luck then.
 
I'd think if they were still intent on keeping him on board, they'd still be negotiating something. Not to say they're NOT still negotiating something, but I don't think it'd become immediately public that Ben is out.

 

[soxhop411]

Food for thought: If ownership / DD was sincere in their attempts to retain Ben, and really wanted to keep him around, would we even know Ben has decided to move on at this point?
 
The rapid departure of Cherington makes it seem like the conversation went something like:
 
DD: I'd like to keep you on as a special assistant. You'll keep your title, but I'll be making all of the important decisions except maybe draft picks. Does that sound like something you would be interested in?

BC: Not really.
 
DD: Oh, okay. Well good luck then.
 
I'd think if they were still intent on keeping him on board, they'd still be negotiating something. Not to say they're NOT still negotiating something, but I don't think it'd become immediately public that Ben is out.

He accepted the job on Sunday. So it's possible they were negotiating up until yesterday.

 

[JimBoSox9]

7 yrs/$180 million to, then, 30 year old Justin Verlander.
8 yrs/$248 million to Miguel Cabrera that begins, NEXT year, when Fatty turns 33.
9 yrs/$214 million to SUPER-fatty, Prince Fielder for his years aged 28-37.

 
None of those contracts are even close to having the book written on them.  Did everyone here just stop paying attention to Fielder after one down year, or do you realize he's murderizing the ball this year?

 

[czar]

While I agree with your assessment, I disagree with your language.

It might be more fair to say that "this is 100% UNPROVEN"

The Red Sox have finished last 3 out of 4 years, which is, in fact, perennial mediocrity.

 
But by this argument, they've won the WS using a FO will little turnover 3 out of the last 12 years, which is quadrennial superiority?

 

[tomdeplonty]

I've been thinking about the "three of the last four years" and "wild overreactions" narrative. It's actually six of the last seven years.
 
2009 and 2010 were lackluster seasons. Maybe you discount 2010 when the team was just decimated by injury. But 2011 must have come as a nasty shock. That team spent the summer destroying everything in sight, and we all know how it ended. Out with Theo. As always we can only speculate about how the FO actually works, but my guess is that there was a fair amount of tension between Theo and Lucchino; Henry decided to end it and have Lucchino call the shots at the point. (I'm assuming that the Sox have been following the "strong President of Baseball Operations/weak GM" model since 2012.)
 
After four years of that regime, with terrible results in three of them - as well as some glaring long-term problems with contract commitments and the pitching staff - Henry has now decided to make a more radical move.
 
From the slightly longer perspective, I'm not sure it's fair to say the FO has been overreacting at all. This is actually pretty conservative and slow moving.

 

[czar]

 
None of those contracts are even close to having the book written on them.  Did everyone here just stop paying attention to Fielder after one down year, or do you realize he's murderizing the ball this year?

 
He's "murdering" the ball enough that he *might* be worth his salary at age 31 if things break well for him the last 6 weeks of the season.
 
There is not a GM in baseball that would sign Verlander and Fielder to their deals. I guess someone could be crazy enough to do the Cabrera thing, but the other 29 GMs are probably thinking the same thing.
 
Could the three perform well w/r/t contracts? Yes. Given what we know about aging curves, no.

 

[ehaz]

Fivethirtyeight on Dombrowski
 

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Fivethirtyeight on Dombrowski
 

 
FTR, the paper from which this is generated lists Larry Beinfest as the best GM in baseball. It also breaks abilities into "Trade Investing Abilities," where Dombrowski ranked sxith, and "Free Agent-Investing Ability," where Dombrowski ranked 50th with a negative Z-score.