Red Sox acquire Fernando Abad
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
“@SmittyOnMLB: Boston Red Sox trade: New acquisition Fernando Abad expected to be trade, won’t be used primarily vs. lefties https://t.co/MRTjgHcu4Q
I think they should use him in a low leverage situation in his first appearance, just to get his feet wet.
In high-leverage situations, OPS allowed:
2016: .858
2015: 1.169
career: .945
I don't believe much in "clutch" but I think this could be meaningful. Relievers may feel the pressure that would cause them to pitch differently, leading to bad results. I guess the Red Sox have some reason to not believe this, so we will see if it continues (or if he gets any more high leverage situations).
I don't really get why DD has to move every young player for a mildly more experienced version. I get we need a lefty, but Light's major issue is walks and Abad's major issue is... walks.
Well, the move is Abad for Layne and Light. They replaced a guy with a 130 ERA+ for one with 109. A .181/.281/.226 line against lefties for a .246/.293/.403 line. Oh, and three years of player control. And another young player who could be a decent 7th inning guy down the road.
Stellar analysis.
I actually think the problem with Layne was the irregular usage, which is not in his control. It must be hard to be that 11th guy in the pen if you don't have someone like Showalter or Girardi as a manager.
They weren't looking for the guy with the best career numbers, they were looking to upgrade the guy who's been the weakest link in the bullpen in 2016. They did that, and gave up a 25 year old who looked like just about the furthest thing from a major leaguer in his chances this year. I don't mind that at all.
I liked Layne, wish we could have kept him through a phantom DL or something, but he's an excellent LOOGY in a division without a lot of left handed threats. He's had a mid 7s ERA against right handers this year so it makes sense to go with a more versatile choice.
Layne's (or any RP's) ERA isn't really a good measure of his performance, especially when it's broken down to just vs. RHP.
Anyway, Layne had a .711 OPS allowed vs. RHB this year and a .688 vs LHB, but unless he's doing something very different he's likely to regress towards his career splits of .835 / .507. Abad is .694 / .548 this year and .745 / .696 career. Depends how much weight you put on this year vs his whole career. Abad went from .457 to .548 last night...I'm thinking he might be regressing.
Layne also doesn't have the leverage issues that Abad has shown, if you put weight in that. Career .584 OPS allowed in high leverage with what looks like an increase in walks at the expense of hits and slugging. My guess is this comes from pitching around any RHP he might have faced in a tight spot.
There's a lot of ways to cut the stats but it looks like Layne is a true LOOGY, but a pretty decent one, while Abad offers more versatility.
Anyway, Layne had a .711 OPS allowed vs. RHB this year and a .688 vs LHB, but unless he's doing something very different he's likely to regress towards his career splits of .835 / .507. Abad is .694 / .548 this year and .745 / .696 career. Depends how much weight you put on this year vs his whole career. Abad went from .457 to .548 last night...I'm thinking he might be regressing.
Layne also doesn't have the leverage issues that Abad has shown, if you put weight in that. Career .584 OPS allowed in high leverage with what looks like an increase in walks at the expense of hits and slugging. My guess is this comes from pitching around any RHP he might have faced in a tight spot.
There's a lot of ways to cut the stats but it looks like Layne is a true LOOGY, but a pretty decent one, while Abad offers more versatility.
From today's Glob:
That's all well and good, but hopefully starters will keep going long enough so that hitters like Davis (LHH who wont get PH for) dont get 2 ABs against the bullpen. Last night, Davis was going to get one shot at each of them no matter which order it was in.
I was thinking lefty Gagne, but Gagne came with much higher expectations, so Sauerbeck is absolutely the right comp. Didn't he end up with elbow surgery?
I understand the questioning of his usage, but Farrell gave a guy DD acquired for a specific purpose two weeks of rope and basically has cut him loose from hi-leverage situations. I know we can all say, "it should have been sooner," but 7 appearances is pretty quick. I think he's in mop-up land now.
Any way they can get the extra two years of Layne and 6 years of Light back a la the rework of the Sauerbeck trade?
And looking back on Sauerbeck, Theo really rolled the dice hoping he'd get 2002 Sauerbeck, not 1999-2001, or 2003 Sauerbeck.
And looking back on Sauerbeck, Theo really rolled the dice hoping he'd get 2002 Sauerbeck, not 1999-2001, or 2003 Sauerbeck.
I think at this point we're saying FernanDOH!
Just seemed like a six of one, dozen of another trade on its face, or DD trying to catch lightning in a bottle in a seller's market. His inability to build strong bullpens is nothing new, though, and Smith's injury really created a ripple effect.
