Player Development: How are the Sox vs. Other Teams?

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I dunno, I read on here for the last few years that Bloom had completely rebuilt the farm system- it was the envy of baseball and was on the cusp of cranking out prospects, and that this year was the year that the Sox were really going to open up the purse strings and flex our financial muscle. But now, there seems to be a pivot to- well, our system doesn’t actually have guys with trade value or that are ready to join the bigs, and other teams still have a lot more money or are more appealing destinations. Oh, and the Sox don’t want to trade for guys with just a year left- which are usually when guys get moved.

The YY situation was always the most likely outcome, of course the odds were always against landing any one specific highly sought after free agent, but where do we think the org goes from here- is next year one in which they plan to seriously contend, or is that delayed a bit?

After the last few years, this off-season, so far looks like more of the same (of course it’s not yet Christmas- but we did this last year too). They could give Montgomery, Imanaga, or Snell the bag and / or trade Mayer for Burnes- whether that’s good idea or not, I’m not so sure.

 

[lexrageorge]

I dunno, I read on here for the last few years that Bloom had completely rebuilt the farm system- it was the envy of baseball and was on the cusp of cranking out prospects, and that this year was the year that the Sox were really going to open up the purse strings and flex our financial muscle. But now, there seems to be a pivot to- well, our system doesn’t actually have guys with trade value or that are ready to join the bigs, and other teams still have a lot more money or are more appealing destinations. Oh, and the Sox don’t want to trade for guys with just a year left- which are usually when guys get moved.

The YY situation was always the most likely outcome, of course the odds were always against landing any one specific highly sought after free agent, but where do we think the org goes from here- is next year one in which they plan to seriously contend, or is that delayed a bit?

After the last few years, this off-season, so far looks like more of the same (of course it’s not yet Christmas- but we did this last year too). They could give Montgomery, Imanaga, or Snell the bag and / or trade Mayer for Burnes- whether that’s good idea or not, I’m not so sure.

Don't know why you're discounting the possibility of Iamanaga; his signing would not represent more of the same.

Also, trade market is expected to open up soon, probably as soon as the calendar rolls.

 

[TomRicardo]

I dunno, I read on here for the last few years that Bloom had completely rebuilt the farm system- it was the envy of baseball and was on the cusp of cranking out prospects, and that this year was the year that the Sox were really going to open up the purse strings and flex our financial muscle. But now, there seems to be a pivot to- well, our system doesn’t actually have guys with trade value or that are ready to join the bigs, and other teams still have a lot more money or are more appealing destinations. Oh, and the Sox don’t want to trade for guys with just a year left- which are usually when guys get moved.

Absolutely not. Stop with this shit. No one is envious of the Red Sox system. There is literally no pitching. None. Bloom ran the team into the ground and got high draft picks. That is not a genius move.

 

[tims4wins]

Absolutely not. Stop with this shit. No one is envious of the Red Sox system. There is literally no pitching. None. Bloom ran the team into the ground and got high draft picks. That is not a genius move.

Bloomers have absolutely made this argument.

 

[chawson]

Do we have to do the "people upset with the team are stupid/reactionary/ungrateful/sports radio callers" schtick on every thread concerning every sport?

When did "smart, reasonable fans are the ones who never question ownership" become the official mantra of SoSH? God, the hand wringing.

There's plenty of room to question ownership but how is this stuff (below) not reactionary?

Absolutely not. Stop with this shit. No one is envious of the Red Sox system. There is literally no pitching. None. Bloom ran the team into the ground and got high draft picks. That is not a genius move.

Bloomers have absolutely made this argument.

The Sox farm system is #2 per FanGraphs and #5 per Baseball America.

 

[tims4wins]

There's plenty of room to question ownership but how is this stuff (below) not reactionary?




The Sox farm system is #2 per FanGraphs and #5 per Baseball America.

How much of that is due to Mayer? Genuine question.

 

[chawson]

How much of that is due to Mayer? Genuine question.

I don't know why it'd matter, but seeing how he's not even our #1 prospect I don't think it's a strike against them.

 

[BringBackMo]

[

How much of that is due to Mayer? Genuine question.

Mayer is not even the Sox top-rated prospect at this point. Roman Anthony has passed him. Teel is right there below him. The Red Sox have a very good system.

 

[sezwho]

[
Mayer is not even the Sox top-rated prospect at this point. Roman Anthony has passed him. Teel is right there below him. The Red Sox have a very good system.

...of position players.

 

[chawson]

...of position players.

You're right. I forgot that position players don't contribute to the score.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

...of position players.

I mean it’s a very uneven system but the top three of Anthony, Mayer, Teel rivals anyone in baseball.

Those are all up the middle players who could reach AAA next year. They are right there.

Shitting on the system because it isn’t perfect is stupid. It’s a very good to great system with difference making talent at key positions knocking on the majors.

And just to belabor the point… all three of those guys are a good/great season away from getting top 10 consideration in ALL OF BASEBALL.

 

[BringBackMo]

...of position players.

All complaints about whether the Sox deserve to be a highly ranked minor league system should be lodged with the moron publications that keep ranking them highly.

 

[Ale Xander]

You're right. I forgot that position players don't contribute to the score.

Other than Bello, what pitcher of note have the Red Sox developed post-Lester/Clay?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

...of position players.

Right. The Sox positional farm system is excellent. The starting pitching (at all upper levels of the organization, MLB, AAA and AA) is garbage. That's why I happen to be closer to the MLB view of the Sox farm system (15/16 area) as opposed to FanGraphs or BA (2/5).

Bloom did an excellent job building up the stock of positional prospects.

He did a pretty bad job of it at the minor league level (Perales and Gonzalez were already in the system, he added Monegro).

He did a horrible job of it at the MLB level. He also misread the market (it seems) on being able to trade positional prospects for MLB starting pitching.

I suppose that last point is technically TBD but to this point it's appeared a pretty massive misread. Hopefully more MLB execs follow FanGraphs and BA than MLB when evaluating prospects (this is tongue in cheek, they all obviously use far more than those sites - I'm saying HOPEFULLY they view our system more robustly, but I doubt it.)



However, there are a lot of ways that this off-season can be seen as a success toward making the Red Sox a true playoff contender again. Now the off-season can actually start and we can judge Breslow's plan. Because if an idiot like me can figure out there was no way that YY was coming to Boston weeks ago, it's an absolute certainty that Craig Breslow could.

If he fails to add any starting pitching of consequence for the next 3/4 seasons before the season starts, I'll criticize him as fervently as I did Bloom. But his one "big move" (Verdugo for Fitts) and the fact that he happened to play here with Beckett and Schilling in one stint and behind Lester, Lackey and an old Jake Peavy in the other leads me to believe that (unlike his predecessor) he actually realizes that you need to invest in good starting pitching to win in Fenway Park and in the AL East and will go out there and acquire it.

I mean, in literally two months Breslow has done more to address the long term pitching at the top levels of the organization that Bloom had done in the prior 3 years (since the Pivetta deal) so I'm willing to see what he does.

 

[BringBackMo]

Other than Bello, what pitcher of note have the Red Sox developed post-Lester/Clay?

Other than the guy who literally just got developed, who have the Red Sox developed lately?

Methinks thou dost protest too much, I simply observe the fact that essentially all prospect value is derived from position players. Unbalancing this to maximize performance falls to Breslow, and I'm a genuine fan of the prospects and ready to watch them warts and all at the big club in '24, but how many Meyers would (will) it take to exchange for his equivalent pitcher? Three?

I think Breslow agrees with you. He’s already made explicit comments that the system needs pitching, and seemed to imply that he’d be open to trading position player prospects to acquire it. It will be interesting to see whether he’s willing to include Mayer in a package to get pitching.

The only thing I’ll point out is that the Sox top three prospects aren’t just your average run of the mill mashers. They are above-average to plus defenders at premium up the middle positions: CF, SS, C. So there’s any argument that IF they all pan out they help the pitching effort with their defense. Anyway, many interesting questions we can expect to be addressed this offseason.

 

[Ale Xander]

Other than the guy who literally just got developed, who have the Red Sox developed lately?

A decade

 

[chawson]

Other than Bello, what pitcher of note have the Red Sox developed post-Lester/Clay?

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Bello are all among the top 10 pitchers the Sox have developed this century. Each of them are different, but I think people are writing off the other three too quickly.

 

[Ale Xander]

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Bello are all among the top 10 pitchers the Sox have developed this century. Each of them are different, but I think people are writing off the other three too quickly.

Sorry I meant SP. I consider Crawford and Houck as RP but I will take your point.
Yankees developed Whitlock (also a better RP than SP) (And because they did a good job with their other pitching prospects, they stupidly let him go).

 

[joe dokes]

Unbalancing this to maximize performance falls to Breslow, and I'm a genuine fan of the prospects and ready to watch them warts and all at the big club in '24, but how many Meyers would (will) it take to exchange for his equivalent pitcher? Three?

It's an interesting question. At some level, I wonder if there are FOs that have (or will) conclude(d) internally that developing pitching is such a crapshoot, that it's no less sound to draft-focus and develop (theoretically) more predictable hitters, then trade the excess for somewhat less-crapshooty pitchers who are a few years post-draft?

 

[simplicio]

Methinks thou dost protest too much, I simply observe the fact that essentially all prospect value is derived from position players. Unbalancing this to maximize performance falls to Breslow, and I'm a genuine fan of the prospects and ready to watch them warts and all at the big club in '24, but how many Meyers would (will) it take to exchange for his equivalent pitcher? Three?

I'm not sure I follow. Why would a good pitching prospect be three times as valuable/valued as an equally good SS prospect?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It's an interesting question. At some level, I wonder if there are FOs that have (or will) conclude(d) internally that developing pitching is such a crapshoot, that it's no less sound to draft-focus and develop (theoretically) more predictable hitters, then trade the excess for somewhat less-crapshooty pitchers who are a few years post-draft?

I think it's almost a foregone conclusion at this point actually. I still think the best strategy is to draft with your high picks positional players and then cast a very wide net all over the place for anyone that can throw a baseball and as they develop through the lower minors you just sort of hope to find a few that you can focus on into High A, AA and not fuck them up when they get to AAA. The rare "can't miss" and almost ready for ML service time pitchers almost never work out- maybe as tough as drafting a high end QB that's not in the top 5 picks or so. I again don't totally (and not letting him completely off the hook here) fault Bloom for this. He did actually grab a few close-to-ML ready pitchers and they worked out in some way (Whitlock and Winchowski and Pivetta) but the upper minors were pretty barren when he came in and the philosophy to cast a wide net means you're selecting young, far from ready arms. He gambled that Houck and Whitlock were going to be mid rotation quality guys and failed. He also probably should have brought more Winchowski types in trades rather than more of the Jeter Downs types..... or (forgetting the name of the guy he got back from Benintendi with power but little else). JUST GET PITCHERS!!!

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I'm not sure I follow. Why would a good pitching prospect be three times as valuable/valued as an equally good SS prospect?

Because they are more rare, and more in demand. Sox have a good system but probably a mediocre one in terms of making deals for what they need- pithcing. Bad teams are anlmost always bad because they don’t have pitching. So those that are willing to dump cost controlled pitchers pitching are usually looking for pitches with more control in return.

 

[TomRicardo]

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Bello are all among the top 10 pitchers the Sox have developed this century. Each of them are different, but I think people are writing off the other three too quickly.

Lester
Papelbon
Masterson
Buchholz
Bard
Ryan Pressly
Kopech
Bello
Houck
Barnes


So Bello and Houck I guess.

 

[chawson]

Lester
Papelbon
Masterson
Buchholz
Bard
Ryan Pressly
Kopech
Bello
Houck
Barnes


So Bello and Houck I guess.

Let's give Crawford a minute. Here's the class of pitchers he's ranked among since he began starting games in July '22.

Since 7/1/22

Musgrove: 186 IP, 3.2 fWAR
Wacha: 191 IP, 3.2
Eovaldi: 185 IP, 3.1
Crawford: 187 IP, 3.0
Lugo: 182 IP, 2.9
McClanahan: 190 IP, 2.9
Bello: 214 IP, 2.9
Hunter Brown: 176 IP, 2.4

 

[nighthob]

Other than Bello, what pitcher of note have the Red Sox developed post-Lester/Clay?

Maybe, just hear me out here, this is why Boston hired a pitching guru to run an organization with a bunch of live arms in the low minors?

 

[Ale Xander]

Maybe, just hear me out here, this is why Boston hired a pitching guru to run an organization with a bunch of live arms in the low minors?

For sure
hopefully everyone is patient (myself included)

 

[nighthob]

Bloom did an excellent job building up the stock of positional prospects.

OK, we can agree on this much.

He did a pretty bad job of it at the minor league level (Perales and Gonzalez were already in the system, he added Monegro).

Here’s a dirty little secret of baseball, pitchers take longer to develop. So given that Bloom had three real drafts, you really shouldn’t expect there to be a bunch of pitchers in the high minors from them. But, hey, Boston actually does have a couple of guys from those drafts moving quickly. Albeit relievers. But every good arm counts

He also misread the market (it seems) on being able to trade positional prospects for MLB starting pitching.

Teams don’t trade cost controlled starters for guys in A ball. That’s a cold hard reality. If Boston put any two of Mayer/Anthony/Teel on the market they could have their choice of cost controlled starters. Unfortunately they actually need those guys.

I am not a pro-Bloom guy, I’ve been critical of his moves at the major league level and was not a fan of many of his trades, but credit where it’s due, he did a good job re-stocking the system.

 

[simplicio]

I omitted Dalbec cause he's never going to have a significant role on a good team. I think jury's out on Duran but he also didn't make a positive contribution until this year either.

 

[Ale Xander]

I omitted Dalbec cause he's never going to have a significant role on a good team. I think jury's out on Duran but he also didn't make a positive contribution until this year either.

Premature

 

[simplicio]

Premature? He's looked worse every time he's come back to Boston. I realize he was very exciting for 20 games four years ago, but this year he showed up for 20 games, struck out half the time and had a 570 ops on a 450 BABIP. He's going to be 29,what future do you see?

 

[jbupstate]

Premature? He's looked worse every time he's come back to Boston. I realize he was very exciting for 20 games four years ago, but this year he showed up for 20 games, struck out half the time and had a 570 ops on a 450 BABIP. He's going to be 29,what future do you see?

How about a career like Refsnyder? Strictly platoon player put in a position to succeed. He does have some positional versatility and hit lefties.

This team needs RH power. Is Refsnyder that much better in the field?

 

[simplicio]

Casas had a 121 WRC+ vs LHP this year, Devers a 119. Do they need to be platooned?

Refsnyder made/makes a lot more sense because Verdugo was terrible vs LHP, and Abreu appears to be well served by a platoon too.

How about a career like Refsnyder? Strictly platoon player put in a position to succeed. He does have some positional versatility and hit lefties.

This team needs RH power. Is Refsnyder that much better in the field?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Lester
Papelbon
Masterson
Buchholz
Bard
Ryan Pressly
Kopech
Bello
Houck
Barnes


So Bello and Houck I guess.

You forgot Eduardo Rodriguez.

I'd also put Junichi Tazawa in there. 7 years in Boston with a 119 ERA+ as a relief pitcher. I'd take that from any of Whitlock, Houck or Crawford and call it a massive win.


@nighthob - that is kind of my point. And I know that teams don't trade cost controlled pithing for guys in A Ball.

But because there aren't any pitching prospects, the Sox would have to overpay in terms of hitters. I agree, if they chose to put two of Mayer, Teel and Anthony on the block they could get a lot of cost controlled pitchers (I disagree with "their choice", but I think that was hyperbole anyway, it's not like they're getting Spencer Strider for those two, but I agree they'd get Jesus Luzardo).

My point was more that I don't think they could take Mayer and anyone else in the system (besides Teel or Anthony) in any number and get any of Cease, Luzardo, Gilbert (and those are the only names I'm familiar with even being somewhat available). The top 3 are incredibly strong, zero disagreement.

But Rafaela was in AAA (and MLB); Yorke was in AA; Abreu was in MLB and AAA, Gonzalez was in AA. That is 4 of the top 9 in the system (per Sox prospects). Bleis and Perales were, as you noted, in A ball and probably not worth much in the market.

I don't think the Sox could put Mayer with any number of those players and get any of Cease, Luzardo or Gilbert. The top 3 ARE incredibly strong, but I don't think there is much in terms of trade value FOR PITCHING beyond those, which I think was a market miscalculation on Bloom's part (and possibly that of many others in the organization as well).

We'll see. Hope I'm wrong and someone like Gilbert, Cease, Luzardo (my personal preference order) ends up on the Sox.

 

[burstnbloom]

Methinks thou dost protest too much, I simply observe the fact that essentially all prospect value is derived from position players. Unbalancing this to maximize performance falls to Breslow, and I'm a genuine fan of the prospects and ready to watch them warts and all at the big club in '24, but how many Meyers would (will) it take to exchange for his equivalent pitcher? Three?

What is happening here? The only pitcher pipeline rates as higher than MAYER is Skenes. the next is Kyle Harrison, who the giants would have to add to get MAYER for Kyle Harrison. There is no precedent for any starting pitcher costing three top 15 prospects in a trade. I think the "Boston Farm system sucks bc no pitching" brigade isn't really looking around at where pitchers come from or what kind of pitching prospects are around these days.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I'm pulling some posts out of the Yamamoto thread to add here to seriously discuss player development. How they do compared to other systems. What they are good at. What they aren't good at. How things have changed based on who's running the team since Theo.

 

[nighthob]

But because there aren't any pitching prospects, the Sox would have to overpay in terms of hitters. I agree, if they chose to put two of Mayer, Teel and Anthony on the block they could get a lot of cost controlled pitchers (I disagree with "their choice", but I think that was hyperbole anyway, it's not like they're getting Spencer Strider for those two, but I agree they'd get Jesus Luzardo).

How many pitching prospects drafted from 20-22 are lighting up MLB? How many are lighting up AAA? Not many. Pitching takes longer to develop, especially given the state of minor league instruction in 2019. That's before we get into the lost minor league season. This is why guys they signed 4 years ago are still in A Ball. People seem bound and determined to forget that weird covid year happened, but I can assure you that it did.

 

[burstnbloom]

I wrote this whole post in the Yamamoto thread without realizing it was closed, I'm dumb. But I think it makes sense in here.

There is no real precedent of any pitcher costing two prospects of Mayer and Anthony's pedigree. I also think the "total lack of pitching" in the farm system is overblown. This is a bit of a grey period for pitching prospect development. There were only 3 pitchers younger than 26 in MLB last year that achieved 3 fWAR and the "top" pitching prospects have significant warts. Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball by a mile and he just went number 1 overall. There isn't a single other pitcher in pipeline's top 20. The second highest rated pitcher, Kyle Harrison, cant throw strikes. The third, Andrew Painter, just had TJS.

To give some context. Here are the teams who have multiple top 100 pipeline pitching prospects in their stable:

Braves - Smith-Shawver (53), Waldrep (100)
Dodgers - Frasso (65), Stone (79)
Phillies - Painter (28), Abel (45)
Pirates - Skenes (3), Jones (69), Solometo (84)
Padres - Snelling (60), Lesko (63), Thorpe (99)
Giants - Harrison (20), Whisenhunt (70)

That's it. 10 other teams lack a top 100 pitching prospect.

Pitching development has evolved significantly over the past 5 years. The number of pitchers taken in the first round of the MLB draft has dropped every year for 4 straight drafts and the most successful organizations at developing young pitching are taking a lot of mid round college pitchers and seeing who can stay healthy. The sox system isn't strong in pitching, for sure, but their top 5 (Gonzales, Fitts, Perales, Bastardo, Monegro) are all on positive development paths and all five will likely be in AA or above by the end of this year and 4 of the 5 will be 22 or younger. That's extremely young for pitching these days. Pepiot, for example, will turn 27 in August. 27 year old Nick Yorke is probably in his arb years. The Red Sox in 2023 got 7.29 fWAR by graduated pitching prospects age 27 or younger. That's the 9th most in MLB (average per team 5.6).

I'm meandering a bit but the point is this - we don't actually know where the sox pitching development is yet because pitchers develop later. In MLB last year these are the players who were 25 or younger who pitched 75+ innings as a starter and had an FIP < 4.00.



So I get that people are frustrated by the lack of pitching prospects and frustrated by the lack of pitching in general but its a sport wide issue right now and while I'd put the sox organization in the bottom half of the league, I don't see it as dire as other people in this thread because the context of the league as a whole shows that pitching has changed significantly over the past 5 years and context is extremely important. I think a lot of people are comparing the Red Sox current state of pitching as an organization to an ideal that doesn't exist.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Great post. Really fascinating perspective.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Agreed, great information. Txs.

 

[cantor44]

Let's give Crawford a minute. Here's the class of pitchers he's ranked among since he began starting games in July '22.

Since 7/1/22

Musgrove: 186 IP, 3.2 fWAR
Wacha: 191 IP, 3.2
Eovaldi: 185 IP, 3.1
Crawford: 187 IP, 3.0
Lugo: 182 IP, 2.9
McClanahan: 190 IP, 2.9
Bello: 214 IP, 2.9
Hunter Brown: 176 IP, 2.4

Word! Gotta second this. Thank for showing is fWAR comps. Crawford passes the eye test, too - good quality stuff, and he's still young. I'm bullish on him as a reliable 4/5 (rather than a fringe starter).

 

[Cassvt2023]

Excellent post. It puts it in some perspective. I believe this is exactly why the Red Sox chose Breslow to lead the organization, and he in turn brought in Bailey. They both have a track record with their previous teams of developing their guys that were already there.

 

[CalSoxGal]

Agreed, @burstnbloom, this was a very interesting and informative post.

I am not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here. The intensity of my fandom waxes and wanes with the excitement level of the team and the demands of my life outside baseball, and the last few years there's been too little of the former and too much of the latter. So I guess I'm more of a casual, or perhaps average, fan.

This quote answered some questions I've had in my head:

Pitching development has evolved significantly over the past 5 years. The number of pitchers taken in the first round of the MLB draft has dropped every year for 4 straight drafts and the most successful organizations at developing young pitching are taking a lot of mid round college pitchers and seeing who can stay healthy. The sox system isn't strong in pitching, for sure, but their

I'm curious if anyone has thoughts as to why these changes have occurred, whether it's leading to better pitching at the MLB level, and how the Sox' approach fits in with the trend. Or maybe it's too soon to tell.

 

[burstnbloom]

Excellent post. It puts it in some perspective. I believe this is exactly why the Red Sox chose Breslow to lead the organization, and he in turn brought in Bailey. They both have a track record with their previous teams of developing their guys that were already there.

thanks. Ya the hope is Willard and then Bailey can maximize the young arms and help identify those middle round pitch shape guys they can draft and develop. I don’t actually think the Sox will lack for relievers or mid level starters over the next 4-5 seasons but they could use a little good fortune with someone turning into Zac Galen or Spencer strider (mid rounders who turned into aces) because that’s where they come from these days.

 

[burstnbloom]

Agreed, @burstnbloom, this was a very interesting and informative post.

I am not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here. The intensity of my fandom waxes and wanes with the excitement level of the team and the demands of my life outside baseball, and the last few years there's been too little of the former and too much of the latter. So I guess I'm more of a casual, or perhaps average, fan.

This quote answered some questions I've had in my head:



I'm curious if anyone has thoughts as to why these changes have occurred, whether it's leading to better pitching at the MLB level, and how the Sox' approach fits in with the trend. Or maybe it's too soon to tell.

I think it has mostly changed because pitching is fickle and arms break. The Sox approach under bloom was to draft mid round college arms (Blaylock, Walter, dobbins, olds and on and on) but my guess is there is some difference in identification this regime will use going forward.

 

[CR67dream]

I wrote this whole post in the Yamamoto thread without realizing it was closed, I'm dumb. But I think it makes sense in here.

You're not, and it does. Great post and it fits perfectly here. Thanks for putting in the work.

 

[BaseballJones]

Related to this: Just how good is Kutter Crawford, anyway?

Crawford (93.7 4-seam velocity)
129.1 ip, 4.04 era, 3.83 fip, 113 era+, 1.11 whip, 9.4 k/9, opponents hitting .221/.281/.388/.669, with a babip of .269 and a hard hit % of 35.3%

Compare that to the following pitchers, just for fun.

Montgomery (93.3 4-seam velocity)
188.2 ip, 3.20 era, 3.56 fip, 138 era+, 1.19 whip, 7.9 k/9, opponents hitting .247/.295/.393/.688, with a babip of .295 and a hard hit % of 38.1%

Stroman (91.6 4-seam velocity)
136.2 ip, 3.95 era, 3.58 fip, 113 era+, 1.26 whip, 7.8 k/9, opponents hitting .231/.304/.335/.640, with a babip of .283 and a hard hit % of 41.6%

I mean, these numbers show Crawford to be a pretty solid pitcher - at least in 2023. Who knows moving forward. But a healthy Crawford that gives you 150 innings of these numbers is a pretty helpful starting pitcher - quite comparable to Montgomery and Stroman at a fraction of the cost of those guys.

 

[simplicio]

He'd apparently be a lot better if he pitched for another team:

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I wrote this whole post in the Yamamoto thread without realizing it was closed, I'm dumb. But I think it makes sense in here.

There is no real precedent of any pitcher costing two prospects of Mayer and Anthony's pedigree. I also think the "total lack of pitching" in the farm system is overblown. This is a bit of a grey period for pitching prospect development. There were only 3 pitchers younger than 26 in MLB last year that achieved 3 fWAR and the "top" pitching prospects have significant warts. Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball by a mile and he just went number 1 overall. There isn't a single other pitcher in pipeline's top 20. The second highest rated pitcher, Kyle Harrison, cant throw strikes. The third, Andrew Painter, just had TJS.

To give some context. Here are the teams who have multiple top 100 pipeline pitching prospects in their stable:

Braves - Smith-Shawver (53), Waldrep (100)
Dodgers - Frasso (65), Stone (79)
Phillies - Painter (28), Abel (45)
Pirates - Skenes (3), Jones (69), Solometo (84)
Padres - Snelling (60), Lesko (63), Thorpe (99)
Giants - Harrison (20), Whisenhunt (70)

That's it. 10 other teams lack a top 100 pitching prospect.

Pitching development has evolved significantly over the past 5 years. The number of pitchers taken in the first round of the MLB draft has dropped every year for 4 straight drafts and the most successful organizations at developing young pitching are taking a lot of mid round college pitchers and seeing who can stay healthy. The sox system isn't strong in pitching, for sure, but their top 5 (Gonzales, Fitts, Perales, Bastardo, Monegro) are all on positive development paths and all five will likely be in AA or above by the end of this year and 4 of the 5 will be 22 or younger. That's extremely young for pitching these days. Pepiot, for example, will turn 27 in August. 27 year old Nick Yorke is probably in his arb years. The Red Sox in 2023 got 7.29 fWAR by graduated pitching prospects age 27 or younger. That's the 9th most in MLB (average per team 5.6).

I'm meandering a bit but the point is this - we don't actually know where the sox pitching development is yet because pitchers develop later. In MLB last year these are the players who were 25 or younger who pitched 75+ innings as a starter and had an FIP < 4.00.

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So I get that people are frustrated by the lack of pitching prospects and frustrated by the lack of pitching in general but its a sport wide issue right now and while I'd put the sox organization in the bottom half of the league, I don't see it as dire as other people in this thread because the context of the league as a whole shows that pitching has changed significantly over the past 5 years and context is extremely important. I think a lot of people are comparing the Red Sox current state of pitching as an organization to an ideal that doesn't exist.

Awesome post burst!

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

How many pitching prospects drafted from 20-22 are lighting up MLB? How many are lighting up AAA? Not many. Pitching takes longer to develop, especially given the state of minor league instruction in 2019. That's before we get into the lost minor league season. This is why guys they signed 4 years ago are still in A Ball. People seem bound and determined to forget that weird covid year happened, but I can assure you that it did.

Lets look at 2020.

30 players taken in the first three rounds have made the bigs so far. 14 pitchers and 16 hitters, with varying degrees of success, of course. Ranked by bWAR: Detmers - P (4.3); BMiller - P (2.1); Crochet - RP (1.8); G Mitchell - OF (1.6); E Carter - OF (1.6), L Allen - (1.6) Westburg - SS (1.2). So of the 7 most valuable players to this point, 4 have been pitchers. (Carmen Mlodzinski, another pitcher, is next at .8, fwiw).

From 2021

12 have made the majors. 6 and 6. Leaders by bWAR: M McLain - SS (3.7); A Abbott - P (2.7); Z Gelof - IF (2.6); G Williams - P (1.8), S Frelick - OF (1.2); M Miller - P (.6). 3 and 3 (that year I capped at .5).

Only one player has made it from 2022 - Z Neto - SS (1.6)

So of 43 players, 20 pitchers and 23 hitters. 7 of the top producers have been pitchers, 7 hitters.



I‘m also explicitly using the first three rounds to omit Spencer Strider (4th round, 2020), Bryce Miller (4th rd 2021), Tanner Bibbee (5th round in 2021), and Bryan Woo (6th round 2021) because these are admittedly cherry picking guys taken late in those years you mentioned that I knew had been extremely good and taken late in those drafts.

I assume there are 4 (or more) hitters taken late from those drafts that I have no idea on having not looked that would be really good too.

 

[nighthob]

Lets look at 2020.

30 players taken in the first three rounds have made the bigs so far. 14 pitchers and 16 hitters, with varying degrees of success, of course. Ranked by bWAR: Detmers - P (4.3); BMiller - P (2.1); Crochet - RP (1.8); G Mitchell - OF (1.6); E Carter - OF (1.6), L Allen - (1.6) Westburg - SS (1.2). So of the 7 most valuable players to this point, 4 have been pitchers. (Carmen Mlodzinski, another pitcher, is next at .8, fwiw).

So Boston missed on Bobby Miller. There’s one. Of course, as he was drafted at the end of the round, so did the rest of the league. And lamenting 2nd round guys, when Boston had lost that pick and the bonus money that went with it, seems a little obtuse. Personally I think Jordan Walker’s the one to lament.

From 2021

12 have made the majors. 6 and 6. Leaders by bWAR: M McLain - SS (3.7); A Abbott - P (2.7); Z Gelof - IF (2.6); G Williams - P (1.8), S Frelick - OF (1.2); M Miller - P (.6). 3 and 3 (that year I capped at .5).

Yeah, not passing on Mayer for a mid rotation starter. Not sure why you’d think it was a good idea either. There’s a zero percent chance that anyone with a prospect at the Mayer level would do anything but split a gut laughing if the Reds offered them Abbot straight up for their top 20 (in baseball) prospect.