Player Development: How are the Sox vs. Other Teams?

[EyeBob]

I wrote this whole post in the Yamamoto thread without realizing it was closed, I'm dumb. But I think it makes sense in here.

There is no real precedent of any pitcher costing two prospects of Mayer and Anthony's pedigree. I also think the "total lack of pitching" in the farm system is overblown. This is a bit of a grey period for pitching prospect development. There were only 3 pitchers younger than 26 in MLB last year that achieved 3 fWAR and the "top" pitching prospects have significant warts. Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball by a mile and he just went number 1 overall. There isn't a single other pitcher in pipeline's top 20. The second highest rated pitcher, Kyle Harrison, cant throw strikes. The third, Andrew Painter, just had TJS.

To give some context. Here are the teams who have multiple top 100 pipeline pitching prospects in their stable:

Braves - Smith-Shawver (53), Waldrep (100)
Dodgers - Frasso (65), Stone (79)
Phillies - Painter (28), Abel (45)
Pirates - Skenes (3), Jones (69), Solometo (84)
Padres - Snelling (60), Lesko (63), Thorpe (99)
Giants - Harrison (20), Whisenhunt (70)

That's it. 10 other teams lack a top 100 pitching prospect.

Pitching development has evolved significantly over the past 5 years. The number of pitchers taken in the first round of the MLB draft has dropped every year for 4 straight drafts and the most successful organizations at developing young pitching are taking a lot of mid round college pitchers and seeing who can stay healthy. The sox system isn't strong in pitching, for sure, but their top 5 (Gonzales, Fitts, Perales, Bastardo, Monegro) are all on positive development paths and all five will likely be in AA or above by the end of this year and 4 of the 5 will be 22 or younger. That's extremely young for pitching these days. Pepiot, for example, will turn 27 in August. 27 year old Nick Yorke is probably in his arb years. The Red Sox in 2023 got 7.29 fWAR by graduated pitching prospects age 27 or younger. That's the 9th most in MLB (average per team 5.6).

I'm meandering a bit but the point is this - we don't actually know where the sox pitching development is yet because pitchers develop later. In MLB last year these are the players who were 25 or younger who pitched 75+ innings as a starter and had an FIP < 4.00.

View attachment 75493

So I get that people are frustrated by the lack of pitching prospects and frustrated by the lack of pitching in general but its a sport wide issue right now and while I'd put the sox organization in the bottom half of the league, I don't see it as dire as other people in this thread because the context of the league as a whole shows that pitching has changed significantly over the past 5 years and context is extremely important. I think a lot of people are comparing the Red Sox current state of pitching as an organization to an ideal that doesn't exist.

This post feels like it should be mandatory reading. Great perspective.

 

[YTF]

I dunno, I read on here for the last few years that Bloom had completely rebuilt the farm system- it was the envy of baseball and was on the cusp of cranking out prospects, and that this year was the year that the Sox were really going to open up the purse strings and flex our financial muscle. But now, there seems to be a pivot to- well, our system doesn’t actually have guys with trade value or that are ready to join the bigs, and other teams still have a lot more money or are more appealing destinations. Oh, and the Sox don’t want to trade for guys with just a year left- which are usually when guys get moved.

The YY situation was always the most likely outcome, of course the odds were always against landing any one specific highly sought after free agent, but where do we think the org goes from here- is next year one in which they plan to seriously contend, or is that delayed a bit?

After the last few years, this off-season, so far looks like more of the same (of course it’s not yet Christmas- but we did this last year too). They could give Montgomery, Imanaga, or Snell the bag and / or trade Mayer for Burnes- whether that’s good idea or not, I’m not so sure.

I think you would be hard pressed to show us where for "the last few years" posters have been saying that Bloom has "completely rebuilt the farms system". He's made great strides in turning it around, but I don't think anyone here thinks that the pitching part of this equation has been "completely rebuilt" and while Bloom has drafted some position players that we're quite hopeful about, they also play positions of need at the organization's MLB level. That's not to say that any of them are untouchable, but the team is not yet at the point where they have valuable assets that can be considered, excess, redundant or blocked. And if I'm to be honest here, I think you understand this.

 

[YTF]

Bloomers have absolutely made this argument.

I gotta tell you, this "Bloomer" shit is getting old. It was a cutesie sort of moniker a couple of seasons ago that was meant as a jab to those who supported Bloom, but honestly it just reflects the same divisive shit that we see outside of these forums.

 

[sezwho]

I wrote this whole post in the Yamamoto thread without realizing it was closed, I'm dumb. But I think it makes sense in here.

There is no real precedent of any pitcher costing two prospects of Mayer and Anthony's pedigree. I also think the "total lack of pitching" in the farm system is overblown. This is a bit of a grey period for pitching prospect development. There were only 3 pitchers younger than 26 in MLB last year that achieved 3 fWAR and the "top" pitching prospects have significant warts. Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball by a mile and he just went number 1 overall. There isn't a single other pitcher in pipeline's top 20. The second highest rated pitcher, Kyle Harrison, cant throw strikes. The third, Andrew Painter, just had TJS.

To give some context. Here are the teams who have multiple top 100 pipeline pitching prospects in their stable:

Braves - Smith-Shawver (53), Waldrep (100)
Dodgers - Frasso (65), Stone (79)
Phillies - Painter (28), Abel (45)
Pirates - Skenes (3), Jones (69), Solometo (84)
Padres - Snelling (60), Lesko (63), Thorpe (99)
Giants - Harrison (20), Whisenhunt (70)

That's it. 10 other teams lack a top 100 pitching prospect.

Pitching development has evolved significantly over the past 5 years. The number of pitchers taken in the first round of the MLB draft has dropped every year for 4 straight drafts and the most successful organizations at developing young pitching are taking a lot of mid round college pitchers and seeing who can stay healthy. The sox system isn't strong in pitching, for sure, but their top 5 (Gonzales, Fitts, Perales, Bastardo, Monegro) are all on positive development paths and all five will likely be in AA or above by the end of this year and 4 of the 5 will be 22 or younger. That's extremely young for pitching these days. Pepiot, for example, will turn 27 in August. 27 year old Nick Yorke is probably in his arb years. The Red Sox in 2023 got 7.29 fWAR by graduated pitching prospects age 27 or younger. That's the 9th most in MLB (average per team 5.6).

I'm meandering a bit but the point is this - we don't actually know where the sox pitching development is yet because pitchers develop later. In MLB last year these are the players who were 25 or younger who pitched 75+ innings as a starter and had an FIP < 4.00.

View attachment 75493

So I get that people are frustrated by the lack of pitching prospects and frustrated by the lack of pitching in general but its a sport wide issue right now and while I'd put the sox organization in the bottom half of the league, I don't see it as dire as other people in this thread because the context of the league as a whole shows that pitching has changed significantly over the past 5 years and context is extremely important. I think a lot of people are comparing the Red Sox current state of pitching as an organization to an ideal that doesn't exist.

I also want to compliment this post, particularly as someone who expressed concerns addressed by the bolded.

Who knows how trends will play over the next couple years but I won’t be surprised if the difference in value between a young quality SP and even a young quality SS widens.

Maybe I’m just too focused on the Sox situation.

 

[tims4wins]

I gotta tell you, this "Bloomer" shit is getting old. It was a cutesie sort of moniker a couple of seasons ago that was meant as a jab to those who supported Bloom, but honestly it just reflects the same divisive shit that we see outside of these forums.

I disagree. This group still exists in full force. The guy was a failure and still gets vehemently defended by a certain faction.