Pitching Targets

[YTF]

I think that's his point, the price you'd pay this year for a guy that isn't an ace might not be worth it if you can find a reasonable upgrade for the end of the rotation.

Only using Gray for discussion sake as he's the pitcher mentioned here. Why can't Gray be THAT upgrade? Honestly if he gets the same number of starts wouldn't that be considered a HUGE upgrade? Slot guys however you want, I use terms like top or bottom of the rotation and #1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 just because that's sort of how we relate skill levels when discussing different pitchers, but it doesn't mean you can't replace a "#5" or "bottom of the rotation guy" with a Sonny Gray. A guy with Gray's skills replacing someone like Buchholz strengthens your rotation as a whole. Price, Wright, Porcello and Gray in no particular order plus one more starter (ideally Rodriguez) gives me less concern than Price, Wright, Porcello, a questionable Rodriguez and ? One more thought, the price for a "reasonable upgrade for the backend of the rotation" won't be going down anytime soon. With the shitty class of FA pitchers coming up there's not going to be a whole lot of separation between those available and backend of the rotation guys.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Gray had another bad start yesterday. His ERA is 5.54, his WHIP is 1.50, his OPS against is .833. Something is going on with him, and it ain't good.

 

[simplicio]

Gray had another bad start yesterday. His ERA is 5.54, his WHIP is 1.50, his OPS against is .833. Something is going on with him, and it ain't good.

Yeah, stay away, and hope Edro and Elias can make something of the season.

 

[IpswichSox]

 

[Maximus]

Pedro hits the nail on the head but Jose Fernandez would be a very difficult deal to do since the asset cost would be overwhelming, even for DD.

 

[Toe Nash]

Gray doesn't get enough Ks for me to want to give up what it would take to get him (aside from whatever's wrong this year). 21st in fWAR last year, 40th in K% and his xFIP and SIERA were in the mid-high 3s. Seems generally overrated by people who see the shiny ERA and his "projectable" age.

He can obviously succeed like this and that's an upgrade on what we have, but I'd worry about a transition period to Fenway a la Porcello apart from just general regression. This year his HR rate has skyrocketed and his strand rate cratered, plus his periphs are worse.

 

[simplicio]

Pedro why you hate our farm?

 

[The Filthy One]

I might be the only one who would do it, and I have no idea if it's even remotely possible, but I would give up any minor league asset to get Fernandez. No Bogaerts, no Betts, but if they wanted Swihart, Benintendi, and Moncada, I'd do it. It would be an "All In" move not just for this year but for 2017 and 2018 as well. This team has the offense to swap Moncada and Benintendi and not feel it too much, but what they don't seem to have is top-flight pitching talent anywhere near the majors. And next year's free agent pitching crop looks depressing.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Is Fernandez even available? Miami is decent this year and, while unlikely, could contend for a WC.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I might be the only one who would do it, and I have no idea if it's even remotely possible, but I would give up any minor league asset to get Fernandez. No Bogaerts, no Betts, but if they wanted Swihart, Benintendi, and Moncada, I'd do it. It would be an "All In" move not just for this year but for 2017 and 2018 as well. This team has the offense to swap Moncada and Benintendi and not feel it too much, but what they don't seem to have is top-flight pitching talent anywhere near the majors. And next year's free agent pitching crop looks depressing.

Here's the thing, though. Miami has Osuna, Yelich and Stanton in the outfield. There's questions over whether Moncada will be able to stay in the infield, so what does Benintendi offer them that they don't already have? Swihart makes some sense for them, although Realmuto is no slouch behind the plate. Plus, if they're trading Fernandez, they're going to want a pitch of some promise in return ... and that means Espinoza.

I guess I'm saying that to follow your premise, Moncada, Espinoza and Devers might be your starting blocks -- if that would be of interest to Miami -- and you'd better hope that leads to a title, because the trade chip pile becomes much smaller if you put them all in for one elite pitcher

 

[IpswichSox]

Who knows of course but I think it would be two of the four plus others not three of the four plus. I'd do Moncada and Devers plus others right now.

 

[pdub]

I'd rather not blow the farm for Fernandez, as great as he is. He will absolutely test free agency - its not like Florida is going to have another $300M man on the payroll. I'm hesitant to deal guys like Moncada, Devers, and co. because I think the offense is going to go undergo change very soon. Consider:

1. Ortiz - he's retiring.
2. Vazquez - his offense is crap.
3. Pedroia - playing great but only getting older.
4. Ramirez - getting there slowly but not exactly close to what he once was. But I'm at least very happy with his enthusiasm this year, struggles be damned.
5. Sandoval - dead weight. For now.
6. Castillo - more dead weight.

And given how much of a luxury a good power hitter is at this point, I'd like to see what we have with guys like Devers. But this isn't to say that we don't need more pitching, because we definitely do.

 

[nvalvo]

What do you think Anaheim would want for Lincecum?

 

[Al Zarilla]

What do you think Anaheim would want for Lincecum?

You can't tell anything until he faces an AL East team (SOSH mantra). Good to see him beat the A's.

 

[soxhop411]

Mlb to Pedro "that's tampering"


“‪@jtomase‬: Full Count » Source: MLB plans to remind Pedro Martinez that Jose Fernandez tweet is technically tampering https://t.co/UUq2U64uM5 via @WEEI”

 

[Rasputin]

Mlb to Pedro "that's tampering"


“‪@jtomase‬: Full Count » Source: MLB plans to remind Pedro Martinez that Jose Fernandez tweet is technically tampering https://t.co/UUq2U64uM5 via @WEEI”

He's not even going to be a free agent until 2019.

In a hypothetical world where the Sox are getting Jose Fernandez now instead of three years from now, I think I'd rather give up Espinoza than Moncada and believe me, it freaks me right the fuck out to be saying that.

Fernandez is what we hope Espinoza can be. Meanwhile, we're pretty set for a while at center, right, short, second, catcher and one of first/third. We need someone to play third or first, someone to play left, and someone to DH. Benintendi and Moncada fit those positions. Sure, we have to figure out where Ramirez and Shaw are playing, but I'm pretty sure Moncada can play third or first adequately.

That would be an excellent offense backed up by a rotation of Price, Fernandez, Wright, Porcello, and Rodriguez. We'd have at least Kimbrel and Smith in the bullpen and people would be talking about us being the best team in baseball until Price opts out.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

He's not even going to be a free agent until 2019.

In a hypothetical world where the Sox are getting Jose Fernandez now instead of three years from now, I think I'd rather give up Espinoza than Moncada and believe me, it freaks me right the fuck out to be saying that.

I'm at the point where Moncada is the only untouchable prospect(for the record, the B's aren't prospects and aren't getting traded).

 

[Rasputin]

I'm at the point where Moncada is the only untouchable prospect(for the record, the B's aren't prospects and aren't getting traded).

I'm generally of the opinion that pitchers who have a chance to be aces are the ones you just don't get rid of because aces are the single hardest thing to find in this game.

 

[RedOctober3829]

No prospect is untouchable when it comes to Jose Fernandez. He is the player you empty the farm for as he's uber talented, young, and cost controlled for another few years. Outside of Betts and Bogaerts, I'd give up any 3-4 players in the Red Sox organization for him.

 

[IpswichSox]

I'm generally of the opinion that pitchers who have a chance to be aces are the ones you just don't get rid of because aces are the single hardest thing to find in this game.

Not sure what you're saying here, Ras. Are you referring to Espinoza? As Smas wrote earlier, Fernandez is what we hope Espinoza will become. We include him in that trade all day long.

Look, as presently constructed we may get to October this year, but we're not built to win in October. The drop off after Price is too steep and with far too many uncertainties. We're in a window now for a few years with presumably Price's prime seasons, Kimbrel and a young core. We have to make big moves now to address a glaring need. That doesn't mean giving up all four of the top prospects or everyone in Greenville. But it means enduring some pain now to get a top of the rotation starter to go with Price and position us to win in October, not just this year but for several seasons to come.

 

[Rasputin]

Not sure what you're saying here, Ras. Are you referring to Espinoza? As Smas wrote earlier, Fernandez is what we hope Espinoza will become. We include him in that trade all day long.

Look, as presently constructed we may get to October this year, but we're not built to win in October. The drop off after Price is too steep and with far too many uncertainties. We're in a window now for a few years with presumably Price's prime seasons, Kimbrel and a young core. We have to make big moves now to address a glaring need. That doesn't mean giving up all four of the top prospects or everyone in Greenville. But it means enduring some pain now to get a top of the rotation starter to go with Price and position us to win in October, not just this year but for several seasons to come.

I think you need to go back and read that again.

I would also point out that no matter who you get to pair with Price, they are only going to be paired with Price until the 2018 opt out.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I would also point out that no matter who you get to pair with Price, they are only going to be paired with Price until the 2018 opt out.

Price has an opt out in 2018
Fernandez would be a free agent in 2019
Theoretically, they could try to retain Fernandez using money that would have gone to Price.
Ergo, the opt-out would be good for the team

 

[keninten]

Ergo, the opt-out would be good for the team

And away we go!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Price has an opt out in 2018
Fernandez would be a free agent in 2019
Theoretically, they could try to retain Fernandez using money that would have gone to Price.
Ergo, the opt-out would be good for the team

This is a game changer.

 

[Rasputin]

Price has an opt out in 2018
Fernandez would be a free agent in 2019
Theoretically, they could try to retain Fernandez using money that would have gone to Price.
Ergo, the opt-out would be good for the team

This is a game changer.

I am not above hunting you both down and killing you both in your sleep.

 

[Remagellan]

What do you think Anaheim would want for Lincecum?

You should read this before contemplating offering anything for him:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/06/18/tim-lincecum-return-debut-los-angeles-angels

I love Timmy but let's wait and see how he does against a team other than the A's.

 

[j44thor]

Lincecum has also spent his entire career in CA. Something tells me he would prefer not to leave the West Coast since he choose the LAA's offer which I don't believe was the only one he received.

 

[TheYaz67]

Well, thank God DD stayed far, far away from the James Shields experience - since his recent return to the AL he has shelled to a tune of 21 ER in three starts, not surprisingly only lasting 8.2 innings total in those 3 starts...

 

[E5 Yaz]

They have been scouting and inquiring about virtually every starter on the market. According to multiple baseball sources, the Sox have not shied away from asking about a few of the most elite names in the game — Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, Gerrit Cole of the Pirates are two such prime talents — even if the teams have no plans of moving that player. This is exactly what the Red Sox did in the offseason, when they spoke with the White Sox about Chris Sale, the Mets about Matt Harvey and the A’s about Sonny Gray. The responses over the winter tended to be along the lines of “Let’s start with the names of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts,” a conversational non-starter if there ever was one.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/06/silverman_names_for_red_sox_to_consider_to_boost_pitching_staff

 

[Maximus]

I'm at the point where Moncada is the only untouchable prospect(for the record, the B's aren't prospects and aren't getting traded).

Agreed. Moncada is now the only untouchable prospect for me if it is a Jose Fernandez deal. I see him @ 3rd and Shaw at first going forward.

 

[FinanceAdvice]

I might be the only one who would do it, and I have no idea if it's even remotely possible, but I would give up any minor league asset to get Fernandez. No Bogaerts, no Betts, but if they wanted Swihart, Benintendi, and Moncada, I'd do it. It would be an "All In" move not just for this year but for 2017 and 2018 as well. This team has the offense to swap Moncada and Benintendi and not feel it too much, but what they don't seem to have is top-flight pitching talent anywhere near the majors. And next year's free agent pitching crop looks depressing.

I agree. The Sox main weakness is starting rotation. My first choice is Teheran but if not available Fernandez would be lights out and believe he could handle AL East. Teheran or Fernandez would get them deep in October. Sox only really have 3 reliables, in Price, Wright Porcello. Need 4.

 

[simplicio]

Or how about we see how Buc and Edro progress over the next month? Cause the upside of either is as good as or better than Teheran without costing a thing.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I agree. The Sox main weakness is starting rotation. My first choice is Teheran but if not available Fernandez would be lights out and believe he could handle AL East. Teheran or Fernandez would get them deep in October. Sox only really have 3 reliables, in Price, Wright Porcello. Need 4.

Just out of curiosity--if the prospect cost is drastic, which it will be for both of them, how does the younger, better Fernandez become your second choice? The injury history? If I'm pushing my chips in, I want the better, younger pitcher.

 

[mfried]

Wanting Fernandez is fine but the cost will be too high. We can get Teheran for Espinoza, Devers et al. (Keeping Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, and probably Benitendi)

 

[FinanceAdvice]

Maybe my premise is wrong but while cost is steep for both, I think the Braves are more likely to negotiate than the Marlins as Braves are going nowhere for this year while Marlins still have an outside chance for WC

 

[Byrdbrain]

You state that with far too much certainty. I doubt Atlanta is interested in any trade that doesn't include Moncada or Bienitendi.

 

[BaseballJones]

They have been scouting and inquiring about virtually every starter on the market. According to multiple baseball sources, the Sox have not shied away from asking about a few of the most elite names in the game — Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, Gerrit Cole of the Pirates are two such prime talents — even if the teams have no plans of moving that player. This is exactly what the Red Sox did in the offseason, when they spoke with the White Sox about Chris Sale, the Mets about Matt Harvey and the A’s about Sonny Gray. The responses over the winter tended to be along the lines of “Let’s start with the names of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts,” a conversational non-starter if there ever was one.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/06/silverman_names_for_red_sox_to_consider_to_boost_pitching_staff

I could understand asking for both Betts and Bogaerts if the Sox came to them in the winter. Both had shown obvious promise, but now, nearly halfway through the 2016 season as well, they are proving they are completely for real... Bonafide all-stars, young, and cost controlled for years. To actually expect the Sox to give up both these guys for anyone - even if they inquired about Kershaw - would be ludicrous.

 

[johnnywayback]

-- Jose Fernandez has never pitched more than 172.2 innings in a major league season. And, in fact, the season after he pitched that many innings, he broke. Now he's up to 80.2 innings in his first full year back from Tommy John. I love the guy and would at least want to be in on him if the Marlins are shopping him, but: a) you only get him for two and a half years, and b) there's a huge question mark about whether he can handle a full season plus playoffs in any of those three seasons (especially this one, his first full season since TJ).
-- I don't think Julio Teheran is nearly as good as people think. The Braves have been trying to trade him for two years, with no luck. And given that he's on a reasonable contract, they have no incentive to drop their demands -- they can just continue to keep the price at whatever too-high level it's been for two years, and have him lead their pitching staff into the new stadium (although, by then, he may well be their #4 starter).
-- Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray were interesting targets in the off-season. And they're still interesting -- but as buy-lows. You tend not to get those in the July trade market. If Oakland will take Swihart, Owens, Chavis, and Rijo for Gray, Valencia, and Reddick or something like that, then great. Otherwise, meh.

Me, I wouldn't trade Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, or anyone on the major league roster for any of those guys. I'm not even sure I'd want to do more than one of Swihart, Devers, or Kopech for anyone but Fernandez. This changes if Chris Sale (more durable, three and a half years of control) becomes available, but I don't think the market is right for a big, splashy trade. I'd rather give E-Rod and Buchholz a couple turns through the rotation, and if it isn't working, trade Owens, Chavis, and Rijo for Drew Pomeranz or something like that.

 

[simplicio]

-- Jose Fernandez has never pitched more than 172.2 innings in a major league season. And, in fact, the season after he pitched that many innings, he broke. Now he's up to 80.2 innings in his first full year back from Tommy John. I love the guy and would at least want to be in on him if the Marlins are shopping him, but: a) you only get him for two and a half years, and b) there's a huge question mark about whether he can handle a full season plus playoffs in any of those three seasons (especially this one, his first full season since TJ).
-- I don't think Julio Teheran is nearly as good as people think. The Braves have been trying to trade him for two years, with no luck. And given that he's on a reasonable contract, they have no incentive to drop their demands -- they can just continue to keep the price at whatever too-high level it's been for two years, and have him lead their pitching staff into the new stadium (although, by then, he may well be their #4 starter).
-- Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray were interesting targets in the off-season. And they're still interesting -- but as buy-lows. You tend not to get those in the July trade market. If Oakland will take Swihart, Owens, Chavis, and Rijo for Gray, Valencia, and Reddick or something like that, then great. Otherwise, meh.

Me, I wouldn't trade Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, or anyone on the major league roster for any of those guys. I'm not even sure I'd want to do more than one of Swihart, Devers, or Kopech for anyone but Fernandez. This changes if Chris Sale (more durable, three and a half years of control) becomes available, but I don't think the market is right for a big, splashy trade. I'd rather give E-Rod and Buchholz a couple turns through the rotation, and if it isn't working, trade Owens, Chavis, and Rijo for Drew Pomeranz or something like that.

Cosign on all of this.

I also think people are way too quick to want to trade Devers here - in the post-Ortiz era we're going to be looking for power wherever we can find it, doubly so if Hanley isn't really a power guy. Unless we want to overpay for Encarnacion after this year (I hope not) we should be weighing internal options, and Devers projects to be a really good one.

 

[NoXInNixon]

I wonder if the Sox could buy low on Keuchel. He's got two years of arbitration eligibility after this year, which means he's about to get expensive and maybe the Astros would prefer someone more cost controlled. Maybe a package centered around Edro and Swihart if and when both get back to complete health?

 

[simplicio]

I wonder if the Sox could buy low on Keuchel. He's got two years of arbitration eligibility after this year, which means he's about to get expensive and maybe the Astros would prefer someone more cost controlled. Maybe a package centered around Edro and Swihart if and when both get back to complete health?

Velocity warning: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&pitch=FT

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Cosign on all of this.

I also think people are way too quick to want to trade Devers here - in the post-Ortiz era we're going to be looking for power wherever we can find it, doubly so if Hanley isn't really a power guy. Unless we want to overpay for Encarnacion after this year (I hope not) we should be weighing internal options, and Devers projects to be a really good one.

I feel a little less antsy about giving up Devers now that Ockimey and Chavis are stepping up their game in Greenville. But only a little.

 

[dynomite]

Also, after their disastrous April (7-17) the Astros have gone 27-19 and are only 4.5 out of the 2nd Wild Card. They might not be sellers at this point.

 

[NoXInNixon]

Being 4.5 games out of the second wild card is hardly a reason not to be sellers. If they're not any closer a month from now, they should sell, and in that time we'll probably have a much better idea how Swihart is coming back from his ankle injury. The Astros don't have good catcher on their current roster, and there isn't one in their top ten prospects, so I think they'd really want him.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Is Fernandez even available? Miami is decent this year and, while unlikely, could contend for a WC.

Exactly. If the season ended today, the Marlins would be in the playoffs. Zero chance they move Fernandez. Since starters like Grienke and Fernandez aren't available, should the Red Sox trade top prospects for a lesser starter? I'm against that kind of move--I would rather hold on to my prospects and hope that one of my own starters, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, etc., can turn it around.

I would upgrade the offense with a LHB in LF. The Red Sox might be able to upgrade LF without giving up a top prospect especially if they take on an unwanted contract.

 

[BaseballJones]

Cosign on all of this.

I also think people are way too quick to want to trade Devers here - in the post-Ortiz era we're going to be looking for power wherever we can find it, doubly so if Hanley isn't really a power guy. Unless we want to overpay for Encarnacion after this year (I hope not) we should be weighing internal options, and Devers projects to be a really good one.

I really want the Sox to keep their prospects, each one for different reasons. But they do need to upgrade the pitching. And if they're going to trade for someone really good, the price is going to hurt. They're going to have to pay a ton, in currency I really don't want to give up. Though if you get a Fernandez, yeah, I guess you get rid of Espinoza to make it happen. But Benintendi has a real future here. And Moncada looks like he's going to be a monster. Imagine a long-term left side of the IF with Moncada and Bogaerts, with Bradley, Betts, and Benintendi in the OF? Yikes. Young. Cost-controlled. Very talented. Then spend $$$ on pitching in the offseason. But that won't help them this year.

 

[foulkehampshire]

We can get Teheran for Espinoza, Devers et al. (Keeping Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, and probably Benitendi)

I wouldn't trade an blue-chip type prospect for Teheran at all.

He's a fly-ball pitcher with mediocre command and strikeout ability (for the NL). His stuff isn't all that impressive outside of his change-up and the only thing attractive about him would be he's under control fairly cheaply until 2020. I don't think he'll solve the issue with more crap pitching. He'd get absolutely crushed in this division.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I really want the Sox to keep their prospects, each one for different reasons. But they do need to upgrade the pitching. And if they're going to trade for someone really good, the price is going to hurt. They're going to have to pay a ton, in currency I really don't want to give up. Though if you get a Fernandez, yeah, I guess you get rid of Espinoza to make it happen. But Benintendi has a real future here. And Moncada looks like he's going to be a monster. Imagine a long-term left side of the IF with Moncada and Bogaerts, with Bradley, Betts, and Benintendi in the OF? Yikes. Young. Cost-controlled. Very talented. Then spend $$$ on pitching in the offseason. But that won't help them this year.

Well, yeah. We're in pretty great shape as a franchise!

But have you seen the options for spending money on pitching this offseason? The best starter available may be Gio Gonzalez, depending on how you feel about Rich Hill.

If you think the Red Sox could really use another top of the rotation starter, it's not coming via free agency until 2018 at the earliest. Which means that I think the team has to be exploring these kinds of options this season.

 

[CoolPapaLaSchelle]

I think it is reasonable to assume that the asking price for a top-end starter (Fernandez representing the high end of that category, Teheran the low end) will be prohibitive. Considering that Wright, Price, and Porcello (in that order) have pitched reasonably well as our Top 3, and that EdRod is at best a wild card for the remainder of this year, I would be content with a backend starter who had a reasonable chance to keep us in the game every 5th day. In short, a rich man's Wade Miley. I am envisioning an Andrew Cashner type, mentioned upthread. He is a pending FA, on a deadend team with a bunch of holes. He is on the DL now with a strained neck, but will be back shortly.

 

[BaseballJones]

Well, yeah. We're in pretty great shape as a franchise!

But have you seen the options for spending money on pitching this offseason? The best starter available may be Gio Gonzalez, depending on how you feel about Rich Hill.

If you think the Red Sox could really use another top of the rotation starter, it's not coming via free agency until 2018 at the earliest. Which means that I think the team has to be exploring these kinds of options this season.

If Price is back to being Price, and if Wright is the real deal, then the Sox don't need another top of the rotation starter. Porcello appears (and I'm not his biggest fan, mind you) to be a pretty useful #3. It's the back two that are killing this team. So I think what they need is another solid arm; doesn't have to be a stud. Though it would be nice to trade for, or acquire, what you think is a solid arm but turns out to be a stud.

Don't love Gio but he'd be pretty decent. Of course, if he's the best arm on the market, he'll probably command #1 money and someone will likely pay it. CJ Wilson could be another decent guy maybe for a reasonable price.

In fact, you could probably trade for Wilson this year. He's currently 8-8 with a 3.89 era (4.02 fip), 1.24 whip, and a 7.5 k/9. He's not an ace, obviously, but he's better than what they have been putting out there in the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation this year. And because his contract is up after this year, his cost shouldn't be prohibitive. And the Angels are going absolutely nowhere.


EDIT: Thanks DanoooMe for the clarification on Wilson. Looks like he's on the 60-day DL and I misread his stats as being for this year. Good catch.