Pitching Targets

[j44thor]

In the "catch lightning in a bottle" category I would take a look at Ross Ohlendorf who is having a good season for an otherwise historically bad CIN team. At age 33 he somehow has increased his FB velo up to a career high 94 (perhaps by scrapping his 2 seamer).

His peripherals are very good (9K/9, 2BB/9, 1.12 WHIP) and should cost very little. Perhaps a Bryce Brentz or similar fringe older prospect likely to lose anyways should get it done.

He is a big upgrade over Ramirez and gives you some depth in case Koji or Taz breaks down or Barnes implodes.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Despite Shaw entering a mini-slump, I was kicking around in my head an improbable Yankee trade that involved trading the LHH Shaw to play 1B this this year and move to 3B next year when Bird comes back. In return, the Red Sox receive Miller and Headley. The Yankees reduce salary substantially by acquiring the cost-controlled ($515K, FA in 2022) Shaw and dumping Miller ($9M/yr through 2019) and Headley ($13M/yr through 2018) for a net reduction of $21.5M / year (with equivalent gain to the Red Sox). Headley takes over 3B as Sandoval insurance (or perhaps Pablo moves to 1B and Hanley to DH) with Moncada in the 3B wings (2017 or 2018) and/or Devers (projected around 2018).

Why in the world would they want to dump Miller? He's probably the best reliever in baseball right now, and having him locked up at that price for three more years is not a problem, it's something you build around. It's not like the Yankees are the kind of franchise that can't afford a big contract even if it's a good one.

 

[Rasputin]

This seems to be something I would be very comfortable with. Would it be possible or worth it to try and add Josh Roddick to this deal? It would require a shift to LF but he hits righties well and if Young returns to normal splits, could be a good platoon partner. Free agent at the end of the year with a low salary this year. HR's are down but does have some potential pop off the bench.

Dont me to derail but tying to Gray probably would only increase the asking price a little bit and if Beane wants to gamble lets see if he wants to Gamble on Rusney as well.

Everything is possible for the right price, but there are two caveats here. One, I really hate the idea of just renting someone for the season. Any outfielder we get, I want them to be a bridge to Benintendi, which means they need to be under control through 2017 as well. Also, I don't think Rusney is going to be an attractive piece to gamble on. Buchholz has a history that includes some absolute dominance, and Kelly has tremendous stuff. There are things to hang your hat on and I don't think Rusney has that.

 

[YTF]

Why would CHI trade a pitcher in his prime on a team friendly contract? I'm sure they expect to contend in the next 3yrs which Quintana will still be around for.

Why would the Sox not kick the tires? Why would Chicago not listen to offers? Why would Oakland trade Sonny Gray who's not FA eligible until 2020? Yes Quintana is likely a big part of their future, but depending on what's being offered things can change. If you can get a couple of desirable pieces back that are cost controlled beyond what you have Quintana signed for you don't consider it? If a third team gets involved and you end up with yet another potential need, you don't consider it? Chris Sale is often mentioned by folks here and elsewhere as a possible trade target. He's signed for one year less with similar options for 2018 and 2019 for a couple of million more per year. If, BIG if the Chi Sox were willing to part with one, which doo you think they would be most likely to keep? I'm Guessing Sale.

 

[Rasputin]

Excellent post and although all the players bolded above have somewhat struggled this season, this time last season guys like JBJ, Wright and Shaw would have been categorized like that. The Sox always seem to have an abundance of unpolished/undiscovered gems in their system. It wasn't so long ago that Owens was considered the top LH pitching prospect (with Johnson close behind) or that Buchholz was a #2 (his $13MM '17 option has quite a bit of value, especially if the Sox agree to subsidize it if exercised- pushing that cash liability to next season). Beane has fared well picking the Sox pockets before (Moss, Reddick etc), he could absolutely "buy low" on the Sox assets with the idea of a couple year window to see them blossom. The Sox are all in now (and short time value) and need what Oakland has: Gray, Reddick, Doolittle, Hill. Beane or any opposing GM with pitching could gather several of the Sox assets that just need time/patience to develop (and arbitrage the Sox situation).

That's part of the problem. Enough of the guys who would have value haven't been having great seasons that if we're going to avoid trading Benintendi, Moncada, and Espinoza, we pretty much have to sell low on someone. Maybe we could make a deal with Buchholz and/or Kelly, but if you look at the #4-10 prospects (soxprospects.com list), you've got Devers who has struggled some, Travis who has a torn ACL, Kopech who hasn't pitched yet, Johnson who is having anxiety issues, Lakins, Hernandez, and Chavis who came off the DL a week ago.

There's almost two months and Devers has been hitting well lately, so maybe come the deadline we can sell high on him and do a deal that looks something like Devers, Kelly, Dubon, Basabe.

Even though starting pitching is our biggest issue, I underlined Doolittle, since if we can't get a top tier starting pitcher, the next best route is solidifying the bullpen.

I would be all over Doolittle. If we could somehow get Gray and Doolittle, I'd be giddy.

Reddick is extremely attractive but I'd rather solve the LH conundrum with a combo of Young, Holt and whatever comes the way of a DFA, and not use our undervalued assets bolded above on OF.

You wouldn't think it would be that hard to find someone to play left who can be adequate against righties so Holt can go back to being the supersub.

 

[Maximus]

Sonny Gray is one of the few pitchers I think are worth getting. My one fear here is that Dombrowski will get into "Get it done" mode and trade one of Benintendi, Moncada, and Espinoza, but I think something like Devers, Chavis, Dubon, and Raudes might do it. It certainly wouldn't get laughed at. I'd be willing to include any of Owens, Johnson, or Elias considering Gray would settle the rotation. Gray, Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez. That rotation is set until Price's opt out.

I think we also have to consider that Beane has a tendency to do unorthodox things. Both Buchholz and Kelly could be interesting investment opportunities. Neither of their salaries are particularly erroneous, and both have the potential to offer a significant return. Kelly could conceivably be kept until they have a relevant team and Buchholz could potentially be a significant trade target next year. Of course, that's predicated on them pitching better, but that's why they call it gambling. If I were Beane, the thought of turning Kelly into a relief ace in that big ballpark with all the foul territory would be pretty attractive. Something like Devers, Kopech, Kelly might be interesting for Beane. I don't think I'd make that trade if I were Beane, but his trades don't always make sense to anyone but him.

I fully agree with Rasputin and I think that Gray should be the primary target. He would settle the rotation with Price, Wright, Edro and Porcello in the near and long term. My biggest concern is that DD has a history of once he decides upon a target, he is laser focused on getting it done and will trade resources to make it happen. Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza should not be used in this deal. DD can get creative with other resources mentioned by Rasputin with Beane who does have a track record of doing unorthodox deals. I also like Doolittle and Jake McGee as potential upgrades to the pen.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I would like to get Grienke too but doesn't he have a no-trade clause and a fixation for the NL? Moreover, while the Diamondbacks are a joke this year, and will probably suck next year too, I suspect that LaRussa and Stewart believe that they will put it all together next season. In other words, I doubt they are ready to give up and trade Grienke for prospects and salary relief.

I was wrong about Sabathia's velocity, but we are still talking about a guy who was in rehab less than a year ago with a drinking problem. That is a huge red flag--alcoholics often relapse--and Sabathia is owed 25 million next season. If the Yankees pick up a significant portion of Sabathia's 2017 salary, I think they can move him for a prospect. Otherwise, I presume he is untradeable.

Upon reflection, the cost for Gray is difficult to figure out, and Beane is a bit of a wild card, but the idea that the A's would want dog crap like Joe Kelly or Clay Buchholz is absurd. Instead, the A's are more likely to ask for an extra prospect, like a Chavis or Ockimey. Devers is a great young talent, but do the A's want a prospect closer to the major leagues? Would a package built around Devers and Kopech beat the package the Red Sox gave up for Kimbrell, who has less value than Gray? The other important consideration here is what would other teams be willing to give up for S.Gray? If the A's can get an elite prospect who is very close to major league ready the Red Sox will have a tough time beating that kind of offer.

 

[jon abbey]

I always stay away from trade speculation. But with the Yankees 1B woes in the news, I considered the following (note: considered) for critique.

Despite Shaw entering a mini-slump, I was kicking around in my head an improbable Yankee trade that involved trading the LHH Shaw to play 1B this this year and move to 3B next year when Bird comes back. In return, the Red Sox receive Miller and Headley. The Yankees reduce salary substantially by acquiring the cost-controlled ($515K, FA in 2022) Shaw and dumping Miller ($9M/yr through 2019) and Headley ($13M/yr through 2018) for a net reduction of $21.5M / year (with equivalent gain to the Red Sox). Headley takes over 3B as Sandoval insurance (or perhaps Pablo moves to 1B and Hanley to DH) with Moncada in the 3B wings (2017 or 2018) and/or Devers (projected around 2018).

This only makes sense of the Yankees are looking to reduce payroll and cover themselves at 1B / 3B while getting rid of Headley's bonehead contract. It also only makes sense if the Yankees move to the National League...or at least out of the AL East.

{A Kimbrel, Miller, Uehara, Tazawa bullpen would be sick. A Kimbrel, Miller, Carson back end in 2017 would be sicker}

You put in enough caveats that I won't give this idea too hard of a time, but it should also be noted that Headley is playing well since his horrific start, .830 OPS since May 9 and consistent defense all year.

 

[j44thor]

Why would the Sox not kick the tires? Why would Chicago not listen to offers? Why would Oakland trade Sonny Gray who's not FA eligible until 2020? Yes Quintana is likely a big part of their future, but depending on what's being offered things can change. If you can get a couple of desirable pieces back that are cost controlled beyond what you have Quintana signed for you don't consider it? If a third team gets involved and you end up with yet another potential need, you don't consider it? Chris Sale is often mentioned by folks here and elsewhere as a possible trade target. He's signed for one year less with similar options for 2018 and 2019 for a couple of million more per year. If, BIG if the Chi Sox were willing to part with one, which doo you think they would be most likely to keep? I'm Guessing Sale.

Who was the last #1 tier pitcher traded with 3+yrs of control on a team friendly contract still left? It would cost at least 2 of the big 4 and probably additional assets. I guess in theory anyone is available but what cost are you willing to pay?

 

[FinanceAdvice]

I would like the trade to Mets for Matt Harvey. The Mets desperately need hitting and we need pitching.(Footnote in today's 6/12 loss, yes high-WHIP Barnes took the loss to the lowly Twins (worse offense in AL) but to me the real loss was in Porcello's arm. No way should he have given up 4 runs to the Twins. But long season and 2 of 3 on road and 4 of 6 overall is good. But we still need pitching. Devers + an arm to Mets for Harvey.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I would like the trade to Mets for Matt Harvey. The Mets desperately need hitting and we need pitching.(Footnote in today's 6/12 loss, yes high-WHIP Barnes took the loss to the lowly Twins (worse offense in AL) but to me the real loss was in Porcello's arm. No way should he have given up 4 runs to the Twins. But long season and 2 of 3 on road and 4 of 6 overall is good. But we still need pitching. Devers + an arm to Mets for Harvey.

On the list of people to pin today's loss on, Porcello doesn't even appear. He pitched well.
And the Mets need hitting today, not in three years. Devers doesn't help their situation at all.

 

[Byrdbrain]

OK
Matt Harvey is a good target but as you said the Met's need offense now, even assuming Devers plus an arm was enough(it isn't), what good would it do the Mets this year? Maybe Swihart, Devers and a good arm works for them near the trade deadline if Swihart comes back healthy but other than that they'd be looking at one of the big 3 in order to get Harvey.

Edit: Posted a smidge late, also agreed on Porcello he wasn't the issue today.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I would like the trade to Mets for Matt Harvey. The Mets desperately need hitting and we need pitching.(Footnote in today's 6/12 loss, yes high-WHIP Barnes took the loss to the lowly Twins (worse offense in AL) but to me the real loss was in Porcello's arm. No way should he have given up 4 runs to the Twins. But long season and 2 of 3 on road and 4 of 6 overall is good. But we still need pitching. Devers + an arm to Mets for Harvey.

The Mets need hitting but Devers does not improve the Mets hitting this year. The Mets are trying to win the W.S. this year and so they aren't trading Harvey for prospects. In contrast, the A's are in or will be in sell mode and so there is a chance that S.Gray becomes available. For the Mets to trade Harvey, they will want a bat that helps them now -- like Jackie Bradley.

I was thinking about some kind of T.Shaw for Z.Wheeler exchange with the understanding that Shaw would immediately upgrade the Mets offense. With that said, if Shaw continues to slump like this, the Mets aren't going to want him.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I was thinking about some kind of T.Shaw for Z.Wheeler exchange with the understanding that Shaw would immediately upgrade the Mets offense. With that said, if Shaw continues to slump like this, the Mets aren't going to want him.

Another way to put this is that I don't think Shaw has established his true talent level yet. Until the last few weeks he pretty clearly had been playing over his head, but it's not clear yet quite how far over his head. So if the Sox trade him now we may well be disappointed at the return. And since we don't have a good in-house replacement knocking at the door, there's no particular reason to trade him.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I'm not surprised that Moncada and Benintendi are off the table for most people here - Benintendi's Portland struggles notwithstanding, the two of them are looking like future regulars, and it's not difficult to envision them at Fenway in the not-too-distant future. Not a guarantee by any means, but more plausible than the average top prospect.

I'm not surprised that a lot of you are offering up Devers in a deal for, say, Gray. On the one hand, you have to give quality to get quality, and Devers has some impressive potential. But, that said, based on his performance this year, there's still a significant enough gap between what he could be and what he is now to make him a little bit less appealing than those other two guys for a team looking to win now-ish.

I am a little surprised that more people aren't at least considering making Espinoza available in a theoretical trade for someone like Gray. Yes, he's a great pitching prospect, but he's 18 and pitching in Low-A. There are a lot of things that could happen between there and the Majors. Not saying I'd do it, necessarily, but I would think about it.

 

[NoXInNixon]

I think Espinoza is untradeable precisely because he's so young. No team is going to give up an ace for an 18 year old, because TINSTAAPP. And yet, there's no denying he has future ace potential, so despite TINSTAAPP, the Red Sox really shouldn't be trading him away for anything less than an ace.

If the White Sox want to part with Sale, or the Marlins with Fernandez, anybody's on the table. But it's not going to happen.

 

[#1GreenwellFan]

The Mets need hitting but Devers does not improve the Mets hitting this year. The Mets are trying to win the W.S. this year and so they aren't trading Harvey for prospects. In contrast, the A's are in or will be in sell mode and so there is a chance that S.Gray becomes available. For the Mets to trade Harvey, they will want a bat that helps them now -- like Jackie Bradley.

I was thinking about some kind of T.Shaw for Z.Wheeler exchange with the understanding that Shaw would immediately upgrade the Mets offense. With that said, if Shaw continues to slump like this, the Mets aren't going to want him.

I hate the idea of letting Bradley go. I hated it in the Spring and I hate it more now but he'll bring more back now. The ONLY way I consider it is if he's the piece that makes a trade for a guy like Harvey go. The problem then becomes how to fill the outfield. Not only do we have a hole in left, we have one, presumably, in right too. Any ideas how to fill those?

 

[#1GreenwellFan]

And I guess my main point above was that without a plan for that, JBJ has to be off the table for DD.

 

[MadStork]

I hate the idea of letting Bradley go. I hated it in the Spring and I hate it more now but he'll bring more back now. The ONLY way I consider it is if he's the piece that makes a trade for a guy like Harvey go. The problem then becomes how to fill the outfield. Not only do we have a hole in left, we have one, presumably, in right too. Any ideas how to fill those?

MHarvey is a hall of fame talent. Why, why would the Mets consider a trade, because of a few bad starts? The great Pedro had a few as well. No chance.

Dombrowski should have let the injury prone and inconsistent CBuc walk and gone after a legit #2 much like SF did with Cueto, Shark and they already had a #1.

The ship has sailed. Dombrowski was left on the dock

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Shark was mediocre with the White Sox, same for Cueto with the Royals. Don't think either would have translated to a #2 in the AL East.

 

[nvalvo]

Why trade Bradley, exactly? He's on a 6+ WAR pace, and that's still including putatively negative defensive value.

We have a window here with a fantastic pre-arb core through 2020 or so, and people want to break that up?

 

[jon abbey]

MHarvey is a hall of fame talent. Why, why would the Mets consider a trade, because of a few bad starts? The great Pedro had a few as well. No chance.

He is arguably their 4th starter at this point behind Syndergaard/DeGrom/Matz, Colon is still somehow doing well (3.08 ERA) and Zach Wheeler is aiming to return after the All-Star break (http://nypost.com/2016/06/03/mets-put-off-zack-wheeler-return-with-all-star-break-in-mind/). Then factor in that Harvey is a Boras client who has rubbed management and his teammates the wrong way more than once, and who is only under contract for two seasons after this, and it starts to make a lot of sense.

Also contrary to what someone else said above, I think the Mets could be convinced to go for the right package of prospects for Harvey. They have to feel somewhat burned by losing the now dominant Fulmer for Cespedes (even though they don't make the WS last year without Cespedes) and I think that moving Harvey for prospects wouldn't be much of a step back in terms of them going for it now, plus they could turn around and move similar prospect packages to try to fill their bigger holes, like bullpen or 1B or 3B.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The only way Harvey is coming to the Sox w/o giving up one of our Big Three prospects or one of our Big Three B's is getting a third team involved. I honestly have no idea... but would Cincinnati moving Votto or someone else to the Mets with the Sox eating some of his contract while sending the prospects to the Reds be possible? But yeah... the Mets need help now- they're not looking to move sideways. The Reds need to rebuild (along with other teams obviously) but it looks like all the teams that need rebuilding have crap for pitching and are bad matchups with the Sox.
Tossing this out without any serious consideration as a conversation starter more than anything....

Mets send Harvey to Sox
Sox send Devers, Travis, Kopech to the Reds
Reds send Votto (?) to the Mets.

Sort of a win for the Reds to get out from Votto's contract and to rebuild some potential. Obviously none of those guys are as sure a thing as our Big 3, but they're looking to stock up on potential I'd guess.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

You put in enough caveats that I won't give this idea too hard of a time, but it should also be noted that Headley is playing well since his horrific start, .830 OPS since May 9 and consistent defense all year.

Yeh, I'm actually high on Headley. I have no idea if the Yankees are seeking to reduce payroll. Still, they need to pick up a viable 1B soon, ideally one that can move when Bird comes up next year. I've also read that the Yankees will listen to offers for Miller. Don't know if that's true and if they'd demand a high upside prospect or 2 for the privilege of dumping salary.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

In the beginning of 2003, the Sox rotation was Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Fossum, and Burkett. An ace, a knuckleballer, a sinker baller who'd had ups and downs in their career and nobody knew what to expect from them, a young lefty, and a shitty veteran. Their "closer" was Brandon Lyon. Their offense was historically good. By May, it was clear that the team needed another pitcher. Theo traded Hillenbrand for Kim. That move gets derided because of the way Kim ended 2003 and started 2004, but for most of the season he was an important part of the Red Sox pitching, first as a stabilizing force in the rotation and then as their closer. Obviously Theo made a few other trades at the deadline, but this move is under appreciated for how important it was to get consistent pitching in the middle of the rotation - Theo bought himself time for the trade market to develop. People were ecstatic at the time it was made.

If Travis Shaw hadn't fallen off a cliff, he could have been our Hillenbrand. If Swihart didn't run into the wall, he could have been a more valuable Hillenbrand. If Holt wasn't concussed, he could be Shea. Regardless, that's the kind of move I think DD needs to make right now. Doug Fister is the guy who seems like the closest fit. You probably wouldn't ever move him to the bullpen, but it might let you finally give up on Kelly as a starter.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

In the beginning of 2003, the Sox rotation was Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Fossum, and Burkett. An ace, a knuckleballer, a sinker baller who'd had ups and downs in their career and nobody knew what to expect from them, a young lefty, and a shitty veteran. Their "closer" was Brandon Lyon. Their offense was historically good. By May, it was clear that the team needed another pitcher. Theo traded Hillenbrand for Kim. That move gets derided because of the way Kim ended 2003 and started 2004, but for most of the season he was an important part of the Red Sox pitching, first as a stabilizing force in the rotation and then as their closer. Obviously Theo made a few other trades at the deadline, but this move is under appreciated for how important it was to get consistent pitching in the middle of the rotation - Theo bought himself time for the trade market to develop. People were ecstatic at the time it was made.

If Travis Shaw hadn't fallen off a cliff, he could have been our Hillenbrand. If Swihart didn't run into the wall, he could have been a more valuable Hillenbrand. If Holt wasn't concussed, he could be Shea. Regardless, that's the kind of move I think DD needs to make right now. Doug Fister is the guy who seems like the closest fit. You probably wouldn't ever move him to the bullpen, but it might let you finally give up on Kelly as a starter.

Fister would have been a great fit a few years ago...in fact, Theo apparently had a chance to trade Lavarnway for Fister in 2011 (ah, what might have been). at this point, though, Fister doesn't seem very valuable...he does have a nifty 3.34 ERA but that comes with a FIP of 4.67 and xFIP of 4.65. he's never been a big strikeout guy, but he's dropped to 5.45 K/p this year (with 3.10 BB/9--his career numbers are 6.03 K/9 and 1.85 BB/9). doesn't seem very tempting.

I'd like to see Elias get a shot as an internal candidate to help the rotation...I've been away for a few days, so maybe I missed it (I'm wondering if he is lined up to take the next turn for the 5th starter)? But of course he's far from a sure thing....

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If Travis Shaw hadn't fallen off a cliff...
If Swihart didn't run into the wall...
If Holt wasn't concussed...

This right here is the main problem.

With all of these three options down, plus Sam Travis also done for the year, the Sox have no enticing young position players at or above AAA -- who also aren't essential -- whom DDski could trade off the 40-man roster to a contender looking for a little immediate offensive help. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley are too important to this team's current and future success. Brentz, Coyle, and Marrero are too unimportant to any team's.

And if the Sox had any enticing pitchers at all, they wouldn't need another starter so badly.

Which leaves three options -- trade for someone on the cheap, overpay for a non-ace improvement with diamonds from the lower minors, or stand pat.

I'm fine with standing pat and letting the chips fall. But that's because I don't see any Sabathia-to-the-Brewers difference makers available out there this deadline, and I don't see any probable improvements who might be available but wouldn't cost at least two of the Big Four.

 

[ZMart100]

Reddick has a broken thumb. Thumb injuries tend to sap power, at least in the short term. I'm not sure how useful Reddick would be without his power.

As far as Gray, I don't think he is a great pitcher. I certainly wouldn't put him in the "#1 starter" tier, but I suspect that would be his price. Over the last three years, he has had a xFIP of 3.66. That ties him for 36th with Matt Shoemaker among qualified starters. Jason Hammel and Collin McHugh have had 3.63 and Jeff Samarzdjia has had a xFIP of 3.69. Porcello has had a 3.73. That puts him solidly among "#2/3 starter" types. Gray's breaking stuff is good, but his fastball is average. He had a very good ERA in Oakland for 3 years, but his peripherals and stuff suggest that he is not an ace as some here claim.

He is certainly better than other options who are suspected to be on the market. However, there is no indication that Gray is currently on the market and little reason for him to be. Obviously, there is a price where I think Gray would make sense, but I doubt Oakland would accept.

There aren't many good options who are likely to be available. Cashner may be the best out there, but with so many likely bidders, his price will be high too. I would probably prefer if the Red Sox sat this market out.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The only way Harvey is coming to the Sox w/o giving up one of our Big Three prospects or one of our Big Three B's is getting a third team involved.

Mets send Harvey to Sox
Sox send Devers, Travis, Kopech to the Reds
Reds send Votto (?) to the Mets.

The Mets aren't sellers and so this is how you would get a deal done for Harvey: a 3 way trade that gives the Mets an immediate offensive upgrade. The Red Sox would have to pick up so much of Votto's remaining contract to entice the Mets, however, and I don't think the Red Sox would do it. Under Cherington, the Red Sox recklessly invested big money in some players (Sandoval's contract, Hanley's contract, Castillo's contract, Craig's contract) and Votto makes over 20 million dollars each year through 2023 (including 25 million from 2018 to 2023 plus a 7 million buyout for 2024). John Henry is rich, but even he must have an economic limit.

I'm inclined to see 3b and CF (allowing the Mets to move Cespedes to LF) as bigger areas of need than first base for the Mets. I'm looking for a starting 3b or CF who can hit in the middle of the lineup and is playing for a team in sell mode, with 3b being the Mets highest priority. The Mets could then let Wright and Duda split time at 1b (there are growing concerns about Wright's defense at 3b especially his weak arm).

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Milwaukee would be another target team in a hot 3 way....

 

[dynomite]

Milwaukee would be another target team in a hot 3 way....

Interesting. For whom? Chris Carter isn't worth Harvey. Braun doesn't play 1B and is an injury liability. Lucroy is getting moved before the deadline, so he's a candidate, but would the Mets be willing to part with Harvey for a meh defensive catcher with a career .780 OPS?

 

[flymrfreakjar]

Interesting. For whom? Chris Carter isn't worth Harvey. Braun doesn't play 1B and is an injury liability. Lucroy is getting moved before the deadline, so he's a candidate, but would the Mets be willing to part with Harvey for a meh defensive catcher with a career .780 OPS?

Lucroy is leading all catchers in WAR, and is usually among the very elite in framing (as evidenced by MIL leading mlb in balls-called-strikes vs strikes-called-balls). I don't know if he can be dismissed as a 'meh defensive catcher with a career .780 OPS'

 

[dynomite]

Lucroy is leading all catchers in WAR, and is usually among the very elite in framing (as evidenced by MIL leading mlb in balls-called-strikes vs strikes-called-balls). I don't know if he can be dismissed as a 'meh defensive catcher with a career .780 OPS'

Yeah you know the more I look at him the better his defense looks (great caught stealing %).

Still, with D'Arnaud on his way back and the Mets in need of a bat, is Lucroy the answer?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yeah you know the more I look at him the better his defense looks (great caught stealing %).

Still, with D'Arnaud on his way back and the Mets in need of a bat, is Lucroy the answer?

I think the Mets are starting to get a little concerned with D'Arnaud's inability to stay healthy, but Lucroy certainly wouldn't be their primary target. However, a heavily subsidized Braun + Lucroy might interest them.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Is Votto really an answer (in the other proposed machinations?). I know he returned to form last year, but he's not exactly being his usual self this season and he's 32 with a TON left on that deal.

I don't think that there's much chance of prying a Harvey away without giving up something that hurts, but guys like Votto and Lucroy are most probably not the answer on how to do that, for varying reasons.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I think the Mets are starting to get a little concerned with D'Arnaud's inability to stay healthy, but Lucroy certainly wouldn't be their primary target. However, a heavily subsidized Braun + Lucroy might interest them.

See, I don't think you're getting the Mets to give up any of their young guys for long term commitments, especially older ones, like Braun or Votto, unless the sox subsidize them to the point it becomes a bad deal for BOS. I don't find this whole scenario to be all that plausible to begin with, but i would think something along the lines of someone like Carlos Gonzalez, still performing and on a decent deal, that you could send prospects to COL, $ and a lesser prospect to NYM and then get a guy.

Trouble is, the guys BOS has that are perfect to be "good prospect that combined with cash is enough" are all hurt or don't exist. The farm currently consists of "stud" or "18 YO who won't fetch much because too far away and also don't want to give away because turn into stud".

Which is to say nothing of the fact that is Harvey our answer right now? I'll grant that I'm scouting box scores and BRef pages, but an 84 ERA+ isn't something I'm cool paying a $10M a year subsidy on Joey Votto for until 2023.

 

[pdub]

Just going to post my thoughts on some random ideas touched on in this thread...

1. Greinke
Definitely not on board with this idea at all. I do think he'll be a good pitcher for the duration of his deal, but I'm just not comfortable with having ~$400M invested in 2/5th's of our rotation. Its not my money, of course, but we must remember that the team always has a budget. Bogaerts and Betts will eventually both require mega deals to stay around. Just saying!

2. S. Gray
Good pitcher, really like him. Young, too. But I'm mostly convinced that he's a #2 instead of a true ace. Don't get me wrong, we could definitely find use for a #2 in our rotation. But isn't Steven Wright holding that down this year? Furthermore, Porcello has been solid enough to be a #3 this year, no? Our back-end of the rotation is what requires work. I'd rather make a play for an innings eater. Or, bring up Owens at some point and see if he strikes lighting in a bottle. Then again, it all really depends on what we'd be giving up for Gray. If Beane can be convinced to take a quantity-over-quality package based around Devers, I'd probably do it. But then, I'm also thinking that Devers' power would be great to have eventually in the post-Ortiz era.

3. Sale/Quintana/Fernandez
The first two are not happening. Chicago just spent money and 'specs on James Shields, there is no point in them moving their superior, cost-controlled options. As for Fernandez? I'd rather just sign him as a free agent when the time comes. I also can't see Florida trading him, I have a feeling they'll ride it out until he leaves through free agency.

On another note, I see that the Dodgers just released Carl Crawford. Any chance he can pitch?

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I think the Mets are starting to get a little concerned with D'Arnaud's inability to stay healthy, but Lucroy certainly wouldn't be their primary target. However, a heavily subsidized Braun + Lucroy might interest them.

But Braun and Lucroy do not solve the Mets main weaknesses: corner infield and center field. The Mets already have too many left fielders on their roster--they need a true center fielder. Even though Conforto is struggling, the Mets aren't going to block him in left field with Braun. Braun is not a fit for the Mets and while they would like Lucroy, they aren't going to trade Harvey without getting a more significant upgrade, i.e., D'Arnaud isn't going to miss the entire season.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Is Votto really an answer (in the other proposed machinations?).

I agree. In actuality, a team should be able to get Votto for nothing since he is owed so much money and Reds would be happy to dump the contract. I suspect Votto never gets moved unless the Reds pick up a lot of the remaining money or take on a bad contract in return, e.g., the Tulo/Reyes trade last season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The Rockies also seem like a good matchup with CarGo the man the Mets take on. Obviously this stuff is pretty fantasy league scheming but there's not one starting pitcher on a struggling team that's worth a trade. It likely will require a third team. I'm pretty out of it when it comes to any teams other than the Sox this year- but who else? The Twins? Rangers? Any of these teams that aren't going anywhere have an expensive good outfielder with plus offensive skills that said struggling team could dump to the Mets for Sox prospects with Harvey going to the Sox?

 

[simplicio]

The Rockies also seem like a good matchup with CarGo the man the Mets take on. Obviously this stuff is pretty fantasy league scheming but there's not one starting pitcher on a struggling team that's worth a trade. It likely will require a third team. I'm pretty out of it when it comes to any teams other than the Sox this year- but who else? The Twins? Rangers? Any of these teams that aren't going anywhere have an expensive good outfielder with plus offensive skills that said struggling team could dump to the Mets for Sox prospects with Harvey going to the Sox?

The Rangers lead the AL by 2 games and their division by 4.5, so I'm pretty sure they aren't selling this year unless someone really wants Prince Fielder for some reason.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Mets aren't sellers and so this is how you would get a deal done for Harvey: a 3 way trade that gives the Mets an immediate offensive upgrade. The Red Sox would have to pick up so much of Votto's remaining contract to entice the Mets, however, and I don't think the Red Sox would do it. Under Cherington, the Red Sox recklessly invested big money in some players (Sandoval's contract, Hanley's contract, Castillo's contract, Craig's contract) and Votto makes over 20 million dollars each year through 2023 (including 25 million from 2018 to 2023 plus a 7 million buyout for 2024). John Henry is rich, but even he must have an economic limit.

I'm inclined to see 3b and CF (allowing the Mets to move Cespedes to LF) as bigger areas of need than first base for the Mets. I'm looking for a starting 3b or CF who can hit in the middle of the lineup and is playing for a team in sell mode, with 3b being the Mets highest priority. The Mets could then let Wright and Duda split time at 1b (there are growing concerns about Wright's defense at 3b especially his weak arm).

Do you think that, with Wheeler due to come back, the Mets might look to move Colon? He's been good, but he's obviously not in their long-term plans. Wheeler replaces Colon; Colon is moved for hitting. I wonder what the Sox would need to give up for him, if that's a direction they wanted to go. Obviously I wouldn't want them to give up much, but some team might.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

But Braun and Lucroy do not solve the Mets main weaknesses: corner infield and center field. The Mets already have too many left fielders on their roster--they need a true center fielder. Even though Conforto is struggling, the Mets aren't going to block him in left field with Braun. Braun is not a fit for the Mets and while they would like Lucroy, they aren't going to trade Harvey without getting a more significant upgrade, i.e., D'Arnaud isn't going to miss the entire season.

They've been working Conforto out at 1st. If they get a big bat, they'll find a place for him.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The Rockies also seem like a good matchup with CarGo the man the Mets take on. Obviously this stuff is pretty fantasy league scheming but there's not one starting pitcher on a struggling team that's worth a trade. It likely will require a third team. I'm pretty out of it when it comes to any teams other than the Sox this year- but who else? The Twins? Rangers? Any of these teams that aren't going anywhere have an expensive good outfielder with plus offensive skills that said struggling team could dump to the Mets for Sox prospects with Harvey going to the Sox?

Not that it's difficult to look up the current standings, but I'd break it down this way as of this second:

Buyers - BOS, BAL, TOR, KC, CLE, TEX, SEA, WAS, NYM, CHC, STL, SFG, and probably LAD even though their record is .500ish

Sellers - MIN, OAK, LAA, ATL, PHI, CIN, MIL, COL, SDP, ARI, maybe TBR

Everyone else is in a murky holding pattern for the time being.

 

[Rasputin]

I agree. In actuality, a team should be able to get Votto for nothing since he is owed so much money and Reds would be happy to dump the contract. I suspect Votto never gets moved unless the Reds pick up a lot of the remaining money or take on a bad contract in return, e.g., the Tulo/Reyes trade last season.

It makes me wonder if he should be the Red Sox target in the offseason to replace Ortiz. Votto and Ramirez could split first and DH. I was thinking it might be better to pay for him than Bautista or Encarnacion, but holy crap, he's got seven guaranteed years left and he's turning 33 in September.

Honest to god, the more I look at things the better doing nothing looks. If Benintendi, Espinoza, Devers, and Moncada were all already doing well at AA, I think I would be adamantly against any trade that involves any of them.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

What about a guy like Tyler Chatwood? He's not as good as his 2.89 ERA suggests (FIP 3.83) but could be a mid-rotation guy for us. Would the Rox give up his two years of control (I think he's signed but then arb-eligible for 2 more years) for a package of pitching quantity if not quality? They always have a hard time signing FA pitchers. So send them Kelly, Owens, and another non-top 4 prospect? Or expand the deal and get McGee. Seems like there could be a trade there that happens without giving up Moncada et al.

Also, just rummaging around, but Dan Straily would be a similar kind of target.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

They've been working Conforto out at 1st. If they get a big bat, they'll find a place for him

I think this idea got started with Keith Hernandez making the suggestion. Since that time, the Mets have said that they aren't moving Conforto to first base:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/119260/mets-nix-michael-conforto-at-first-base

If there is more recent news on this matter, I would like to hear it.

There is talk that the Mets are getting close to promoting Nimmo. He can play center field and is OK there according to reports. Again, this would be more evidence that the Mets have a sufficient number of outfielders and aren't going to make a move for Braun or C.Gonzalez. They need a third baseman who can hit.

Do you think that, with Wheeler due to come back, the Mets might look to move Colon?

Probably not. I suspect that they can't get enough for Colon to make it worthwhile for them. They like Colon in the clubhouse and he has no problems moving to the bullpen if necessary. They are also taking it slow with Wheeler and so Colon will continue to get plenty of starts.

 

[nothumb]

Just going to post my thoughts on some random ideas touched on in this thread...

1. Greinke
Definitely not on board with this idea at all. I do think he'll be a good pitcher for the duration of his deal, but I'm just not comfortable with having ~$400M invested in 2/5th's of our rotation. Its not my money, of course, but we must remember that the team always has a budget. Bogaerts and Betts will eventually both require mega deals to stay around. Just saying!

2. S. Gray
Good pitcher, really like him. Young, too. But I'm mostly convinced that he's a #2 instead of a true ace. Don't get me wrong, we could definitely find use for a #2 in our rotation. But isn't Steven Wright holding that down this year? Furthermore, Porcello has been solid enough to be a #3 this year, no? Our back-end of the rotation is what requires work. I'd rather make a play for an innings eater. Or, bring up Owens at some point and see if he strikes lighting in a bottle. Then again, it all really depends on what we'd be giving up for Gray. If Beane can be convinced to take a quantity-over-quality package based around Devers, I'd probably do it. But then, I'm also thinking that Devers' power would be great to have eventually in the post-Ortiz era.

3. Sale/Quintana/Fernandez
The first two are not happening. Chicago just spent money and 'specs on James Shields, there is no point in them moving their superior, cost-controlled options. As for Fernandez? I'd rather just sign him as a free agent when the time comes. I also can't see Florida trading him, I have a feeling they'll ride it out until he leaves through free agency.

On another note, I see that the Dodgers just released Carl Crawford. Any chance he can pitch?

Wait, so your main concern with acquiring Sonny Gray is that we might have a #2 quality guy as our 4th starter?

My main concern with acquiring Sonny Gray is that Billy Beane would be part-owner of the Red Sox by the time we got it done.

 

[nighthob]

Wait, so your main concern with acquiring Sonny Gray is that we might have a #2 quality guy as our 4th starter?

My main concern with acquiring Sonny Gray is that Billy Beane would be part-owner of the Red Sox by the time we got it done.

I think that's his point, the price you'd pay this year for a guy that isn't an ace might not be worth it if you can find a reasonable upgrade for the end of the rotation.

 

[soxhop411]

I guess this would fit here?
“‪@PeteAbe‬: #RedSox have a minor league deal with righthanded reliever Casey Janssen. He’ll report to Lowell at first before going to Pawtucket.”