Pats vs Texans: The buildup

[j44thor]

Cannon and Solder are probably the two most important players this week. Only way HOU has a punchers chance is if they can force multiple turnovers/short fields. Clowney & Mercilus are by far HOU best bet at making that happen but if Solder/Cannon continue to play the way they have all season they should be relative non-factors.

I'd take a Pats team lead by Jimmy G, Dola and Floyd comfortably over HOU so long as Solder/Cannon are on the field.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

I agree with the consensus that this should be a blowout. The refs are the X factor in this game being kept close. A few key drive killing offensive holding calls and a couple of well timed DPI penalties and this game could remain competitive into the 4th quarter.

 

[j44thor]

I agree with the consensus that this should be a blowout. The refs are the X factor in this game being kept close. A few key drive killing offensive holding calls and a couple of well timed DPI penalties and this game could remain competitive into the 4th quarter.

NFL is going to save those for next week when they might actually matter.
If anything I think this will be a pro-NE officiated game.

 

[Oppo]

The Patriots lost to Buffalo after a bye and lost to Sea after the Thursday game mini bye. Logical conclusion is they will lose after the bye against Hou.

 

[bankshot1]

IMO the X factor in this game is the chance of a blizzard, where almost all Pat advantages get neutralized.

 

[H78]

IMO the X factor in this game is the chance of a blizzard, where almost all Pat advantages get neutralized.

So you think a team that plays in a dome in Texas would somehow benefit?

You think they'd cover Bennett and Edelman and Hogan and possibly 'Dola better in snow?

Blount would somehow become less effective?

It would be the Titans snow game 2.0.

If there's a blizzard the Pats are going to win something along the lines of 41-3. I promise you that.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Yeah a blizzard changes the game somewhat, but not in a way that benefits the Texans. There is an extremely good chance they would be even more adversely affected by snow than the Patriots would be.

 

[H78]

FWIW, I hope there's a blizzard. I feel like it'll cut down on high impact hits and keep them fresher for the AFCCG.

 

[H78]

Yeah a blizzard changes the game somewhat, but not in a way that benefits the Texans. There is an extremely good chance they would be even more adversely affected by snow than the Patriots would be.

Yeah, if there's a blizzard and you don't take the over and the Pats you're pissing away free money.

 

[bankshot1]

So you think a team that plays in a dome in Texas would somehow benefit?

You think they'd cover Bennett and Edelman and Hogan and possibly 'Dola better in snow?

Blount would somehow become less effective?

It would be the Titans snow game 2.0.

If there's a blizzard the Pats are going to win something along the lines of 41-3. I promise you that.

You can't throw the ball in a blizzard (extreme wind/blowing snow)

the game becomes a wholly run game in miserable conditions.Houston has a D.

The great equallizer is a blizzard.

 

[Curt S Loew]

IMO the X factor in this game is the chance of a blizzard, where almost all Pat advantages get neutralized.

One of the huge advantages is Osweiler is probably the worst QB in the league. That's not getting neutralized.

 

[eustis22]

>You can't throw the ball in a blizzard (extreme wind/blowing snow)

Ref: one Thomas Faloolah Brady, Tuck Game.

 

[bankshot1]

One of the huge advantages is Osweiler is probably the worst QB in the league. That's not getting neutralized.

Oz just has to hand off the ball.

The shitty weather conditions neutralzied the huge advantage the Pats have at QB.

This game in normal conditions is a blow-out.

In a blizzard, the Pats should still win, but I'm less confident.

 

[H78]

You can't throw the ball in a blizzard (extreme wind/blowing snow)

the game becomes a wholly run game in miserable conditions.Houston has a D.

The great equallizer is a blizzard.

Maybe it wasn't a "blizzard," but it was a whiteout when the Patriots played the Titans in 2009.

Do you know Brady's stat line that game, where he had (an) arguably less talented overall receiving corps?

29/34 380 yards 6 TD 0 INT. He had a near-perfect QBR.

I'm not saying it would happen again, and I know Houston's defense is better than the Titans were that year, but these Texans are the exact kind of team that completely turtles in this type of game.

It would be much worse than if it's played on a clean field.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Here's what DVOA says:

Pats Overall/Offense/Defense/St - 1/2/16/7 (the Patriots defense has been top 10 in the second half of the season too - so maybe 1/2/8/7 in reality)
HOU overall/offense/defense/ST - 29/30/7/32

Houston has a better than average defense. Despite that, they are one of the worst teams in the NFL (let alone the playoffs). If Derek Carr doesn't get Joe Theismann'd, (and Oakland doesn't end up with the 2 seed), Houston loses by 30 points and we're playing a tough game against Oakland this weekend.

This is the best team in football playing one of the worst - Osweiler puts up that 270/1/1 line and Houston still loses big. For them to win, a lot of things need to go wrong for the Patriots - this needs to be one of those 5 turnover days.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I'd feel pretty good about playing this game in the snow given Tom's effectiveness historically and the dappening effect it has on elite pass rushers like Clowney.

Rain/sleer, on the other hand, would be problematic.

 

[5dice]

I need to research last 2 seasons in snow, but as of 3/5/15, Belichick teams were12-0 in snow.
http://www.patriots.com/galleries/2015/03/05/new-englands-other-snow-record

 

[Silverdude2167]

Re: Snow.

Everyone needs to remember that snow kills the pass rush. If it snows that takes away Houstons one strength. Snow is better for the Pats than it is for Houston.

 

[bradmahn]

Re: Snow.

Everyone needs to remember that snow kills the pass rush. If it snows that takes away Houstons one strength. Snow is better for the Pats than it is for Houston.

I wouldn't say "one strength." They do have a pretty good defensive backfield but the snow can also make it harder for DBs to make reactive cuts on a WR's route.

 

[Marciano490]

I need to research last 2 seasons in snow, but as of 3/5/15, Belichick teams were12-0 in snow.
http://www.patriots.com/galleries/2015/03/05/new-englands-other-snow-record

Does that count his time with LT and the Giants?

 

[Stitch01]

There's a difference between some snow and a full out blizzard. Pats don't want a blizzard and wouldn't want a driving windy rainstorm either, either would be a relative advantage for Houston. The biggest detriment to passing games/offenses is strong winds.

The Patriots-Titans game in '09 wasn't in anything close to a blizzard/whiteout conditions, wind was only 10-15 MPH.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Weather conditions like a Blizzard introduces an element of randomness. When you have the consensus better team and should win 10/10 on a neutral field in perfect conditions then anything that introduces randomness should be seen as bad.

I agree that snow is 99.9% more likely to adversely affect Houston more then the Pats, but from a pure "get the teams on the field and be done with it" type of view snow/wind/blizzard is more inherently risky to the better team.

 

[staz]

Wunderground has kickoff at 26 degrees, snow showers, 3mph wind. Probably more picturesque than nuisance. My mind's eye has Gronk on the plow, clearing the lines in a Santa hat, to the delirium of the huddled masses.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Weather conditions like a Blizzard introduces an element of randomness. When you have the consensus better team and should win 10/10 on a neutral field in perfect conditions then anything that introduces randomness should be seen as bad.

I agree that snow is 99.9% more likely to adversely affect Houston more then the Pats, but from a pure "get the teams on the field and be done with it" type of view snow/wind/blizzard is more inherently risky to the better team.

I used to believe the same thing, but their record in snow makes me think there's an advantage to practicing in the conditions and Brady's ability to throw in it that at least mitigates the randomness. I actually wonder if it increases their advantage, especially with the way the team is made up now with a stout OL and Blount. Plus Houston is a dome team from a hot climate.

 

[staz]

Per CBS:

Under Belichick, they've been a favorite of 15 or more points a total of 13 times, including regular-season games, and they've gone 13-0 straight-up in those games. Belichick's Patriots don't lose to inferior teams. However, when it comes to covering the spread, things are a bit more dicey with the Patriots going 7-6 ATS.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I just want everyone to know that I am not going to mention that time they lost as 14 point favorites.

 

[johnmd20]

I just want everyone to know that I am not going to mention that time they lost as 14 point favorites.

They were -12.

edit - just to add, they did win as 14 point underdogs in 2002.

 

[DJnVa]

With all the blizzard back and forth, I think it's important to note that there's, you know, not going to be one.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

It could snow hydrofluoric acid, lawn darts and mosquitos and the Pats would still win by plenty. Unless you're going to the game, who cares about the weather?

 

[loshjott]

I just want everyone to know that I am not going to mention that time they lost as 14 point favorites.

At first I thought you were referring to the Jets playoff loss in 2011 but Pats were only -9 then.

 

[Ed Hillel]

They were -12.

edit - just to add, they did win as 14 point underdogs in 2002.

Ah, I think they may have started -14 and moved a couple points because of Brady's foot.

 

[joe dokes]

Game prep:
http://deadspin.com/bill-belichick-seen-sleeping-on-boat-1790980106

 

[BaseballJones]

Playoff losses under BB/TB:

2005/06 - 27-13 at Den in Divisional Round
2006/07 - 38-34 at Ind in AFCCG
2007/08 - 17-14 vs NYG in SB
2009/10 - 33-14 vs Bal in Wild Card Round
2010/11 - 28-21 vs NYJ in Divisional Round
2011/12 - 21-17 vs NYG in SB
2012/13 - 28-13 vs Bal in AFCCG
2013/14 - 26-16 at Den in AFCCG
2015/16 - 20-18 at Den in AFCCG

A few things to note...

- It's been SIX seasons since the Pats were eliminated before the AFCCG. Remarkable.

- Of these 9 losses, 4 were road games, 3 were home games, and 2 were neutral site games.

- I don't know where to find the betting lines of these games, but I would argue that the "inferior" teams the Patriots lost to over these nine games were:

- 2007/08 loss to the Giants in the SB
- 2010/11 loss to the Jets in the divisional round
- 2011/12 loss to the Giants in the SB
- 2012/13 loss to the Ravens in the AFCCG

I do not consider losing at Denver to be losing to an inferior team. Same as in both 2013/14 and 2005/06. I think the Pats COULD have won all those games, but playing in Denver, against really good Bronco teams...well, it's tough to call those situations playing against inferior teams.

The two Giants losses were brutal, no other way around it. And the loss to the Jets was obviously the worst one of all.

As far as that 2012/13 loss to Baltimore goes...The Pats were the better team (I didn't consider NE to be better in 2009/10 because of the Welker injury). But losing Talib right off the bat made that a much harder game.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats were 3 point favorites in the second Giants Super Bowl. It was brutal given the history and the Giants were the "inferior" team, but that loss is closer to losing the wild card game at home vs. the Ravens then the other losses mentioned.

Pats were 3 to 4.5 point underdogs for all the Denver games.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Pats were 3 to 4.5 point underdogs for all the Denver games.

The Pats closed as 2.5 point favorites last year. That's quite a big difference.

 

[Stitch01]

You are right, I had read that as 3 point underdogs. So that goes in a similar category as the Giants and Ravens losses.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Pats were 3 point favorites in the second Giants Super Bowl. It was brutal given the history and the Giants were the "inferior" team, but that loss is closer to losing the wild card game at home vs. the Ravens then the other losses mentioned.

Pats were 3 to 4.5 point underdogs for all the Denver games.

Pats were 3 points because Gronk was playing, despite the uncertainty. With the version of Gronk that showed up on gameday, Giants were the better squad.

 

[Saints Rest]

I had a dream last night that the Pats lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants again. This time 90-69. Good thing Big Blue was eliminated last night.

 

[BillMuellerFanClub]

Game prep:
http://deadspin.com/bill-belichick-seen-sleeping-on-boat-1790980106

That's not even the best part: a Patriots fan refuses to let ESPN use photo of sleeping Belichick.

 

[moondog80]

Game prep:
http://deadspin.com/bill-belichick-seen-sleeping-on-boat-1790980106

ESPN asked if they could use this photo and the guy said no because of deflategate:

 

[Super Nomario]

Pats were 3 points because Gronk was playing, despite the uncertainty. With the version of Gronk that showed up on gameday, Giants were the better squad.

That Giants team was 9-7 and had a negative point differential. Banged-up Gronk obviously hurt, but if they played 10 times or something, I think the Pats would come out on top.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I had a dream last night that the Pats lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants again. This time 90-69. Good thing Big Blue was eliminated last night.

Absurd. No way Pats score 69 without Gronk.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats were 3 points because Gronk was playing, despite the uncertainty. With the version of Gronk that showed up on gameday, Giants were the better squad.

Non-QB, even Gronk, being worth 3.5 points....I dont know, I dont think markets would agree. But I wouldnt call any of these games upsets or losing to inferior teams. Ravens AFCCG, Giants 1, Jets Divisional is my full list of losses that shouldnt have happened with only one real obvious atrocity.

 

[DJnVa]

ESPN asked if they could use this photo and the guy said no because of deflategate:

This is funny, but couldn't ESPN just retweet it? You don't need permission for that do you?

 

[loshjott]

This is funny, but couldn't ESPN just retweet it? You don't need permission for that do you?

They asked for permission to use it on all platforms.

 

[DJnVa]

They asked for permission to use it on all platforms.

I understand that part of it. But you can RT something, then add your own tweet above it, so they could still drive traffic.

Or whatever.

 

[Ed Hillel]

That Giants team was 9-7 and had a negative point differential. Banged-up Gronk obviously hurt, but if they played 10 times or something, I think the Pats would come out on top.

They were 12-7 at that point and playing very well on D. That Pats secondary was absolutely brutal; if you want a good lol go take a look at the roster. It was just a bad matchhp with how well Eli was playing that year.

 

[Super Nomario]

They were 12-7 at that point and playing very well on D. That Pats secondary was absolutely brutal; if you want a good lol go take a look at the roster. It was just a bad matchhp with how well Eli was playing that year.

The Pats were 15-3 by the Super Bowl. Their defense wasn't good, but it allowed 60 fewer points than Giants. The Pats were coming off a lucky win over the Ravens, but the Giants' NFCCG victory over SF was ridiculous - 10 of their 20 points were on muffed punts by the 49ers. By pretty much any empirical measure that Giants team was the worst team ever to win a Super Bowl. Better to be the worst SB winner than the best loser, I guess ...

 

[johnmd20]

I understand that part of it. But you can RT something, then add your own tweet above it, so they could still drive traffic.

Or whatever.

But that won't help them if someone goes to ESPN.com.

 

[johnmd20]

The Pats were 15-3 by the Super Bowl. Their defense wasn't good, but it allowed 60 fewer points than Giants. The Pats were coming off a lucky win over the Ravens, but the Giants' NFCCG victory over SF was ridiculous - 10 of their 20 points were on muffed punts by the 49ers. By pretty much any empirical measure that Giants team was the worst team ever to win a Super Bowl. Better to be the worst SB winner than the best loser, I guess ...

Peyton Manning's Colts were worse than the Giants. The Giants won the NFCCG b/c their defense dominated every drive in the second half and OT. Alex Smith looked like a high schooler in that game and the Giants capitalized on mistakes. The 1991 Giants were probably worse, too. Now that was an upset.