Pats vs Texans: The buildup

[Super Nomario]

Peyton Manning's Colts were worse than the Giants. The Giants won the NFCCG b/c their defense dominated every drive in the second half and OT. Alex Smith looked like a high schooler in that game and the Giants capitalized on mistakes. The 1991 Giants were probably worse, too. Now that was an upset.

Those Colts were 12-4 and the #1 seed in their conference, with a +67 differential. They are similar to the Giants in that they were much improved defensively in the playoffs (in fact, Indy finished with the #1 scoring D the following year, 2007). The '90 Giants were 13-3 and had the #1 scoring D.

The '01 Pats deserve mention here; they were only the second five-loss champ, and they were 19th in yards offensively and 24th defensively. All the six-loss champs are since: '07 Giants, '10 Packers, '11 Giants (the only seven-loss champ), '12 Ravens.

 

[Stitch01]

1990 Giants were 13-3, were the best team in the league by DVOA, and had a +124 point differential. They dont belong anywhere near a list of worst teams to ever win a Super Bowl.

 

[dynomite]

As far as that 2012/13 loss to Baltimore goes...The Pats were the better team (I didn't consider NE to be better in 2009/10 because of the Welker injury). But losing Talib right off the bat made that a much harder game.

Especially without Gronk I think the 12 Ravens and Patriots were essentially even teams (indeed, the Ravens ended up beating the Pats in both matchups that year). I don't think it's fair to call them "inferior."

Also, those Ravens dealt with injuries all year -- Suggs went on PUP, Ray Lewis's season was over until healed by deer antlers, Webb was their best CB and went on IR, Ngata missed a game and was not healthy, etc. Without those injuries that team would have been better than 10-6 and ranked higher than 8th in DVOA, in my opinion.

1990 Giants were 13-3, were the best team in the league by DVOA, and had a +124 point differential. They dont belong anywhere near a list of worst teams to ever win a Super Bowl.

Agreed. That said they were playing with a backup QB in the Super Bowl -- pretty remarkable achievement.

 

[djbayko]

Per CBS:

Under Belichick, they've been a favorite of 15 or more points a total of 13 times, including regular-season games, and they've gone 13-0 straight-up in those games. Belichick's Patriots don't lose to inferior teams. However, when it comes to covering the spread, things are a bit more dicey with the Patriots going 7-6 ATS.

Not surprisingly, all 13 of those games have come since the beginning of the 2007 season.

Let's go further...

• The Patriots are 21-0 in games where they were favored by 14 or more points (all games since 2007).
• They are 28-1 in games where they were favored by 13 or more points (only 2 games prior to 2007).

Finally, Belichick's Patriots have only once been dogs by 13 or more points (+14 to be exact). It should be obvious which game that was.

 

[jsinger121]

Pete Morelli is the ref for the divisional game.

http://www.footballzebras.com/2017/01/09/steratore-morelli-cheffers-corrente-are-divisional-playoff-referees/

 

[soxhop411]

Pete Morelli is the ref for the divisional game.

http://www.footballzebras.com/2017/01/09/steratore-morelli-cheffers-corrente-are-divisional-playoff-referees/

How did he get a playoff assignment?

 

[Royal Reader]

Peyton Manning's Colts were worse than the Giants. The Giants won the NFCCG b/c their defense dominated every drive in the second half and OT. Alex Smith looked like a high schooler in that game and the Giants capitalized on mistakes. The 1991 Giants were probably worse, too. Now that was an upset.

The team with an inner circle HOFer at QB, two Canton quality wideouts, a pro bowl left tackle, a fearsome pass rush and a healthy Bob Sanders, which went 14-2 the following year, in the conversation for worst SB team? Not close.

 

[tims4wins]

If Morelli has to ref a Pats playoff game at least it is this one. Hopefully better assignments going forward

 

[edmunddantes]

Is this the round where the Super Bowl Ref gets pulled from?

I always thought there was a weird thing where the refs from the Championship games are not the Super Bowl refs to avoid any "championship game errors/bad calls" to carry over into the Super Bowl.

or I'm just making that up. It's been a long day.

 

[jsinger121]

If Morelli has to ref a Pats playoff game at least it is this one. Hopefully better assignments going forward

Morelli has a chance to work the Super Bowl. One of the 4 refs from divisional weekend usually works the Super Bowl. This year we have Morelli, Gene Steratore, Tony Corrente and Carl Cheffers.

 

[jsinger121]

Is this the round where the Super Bowl Ref gets pulled from?

I always thought there was a weird thing where the refs from the Championship games are not the Super Bowl refs to avoid any "championship game errors/bad calls" to carry over into the Super Bowl.

or I'm just making that up. It's been a long day.

You are correct. See my post above.

 

[dbn]

It could snow hydrofluoric acid, lawn darts and mosquitos and the Pats would still win by plenty. Unless you're going to the game, who cares about the weather?

 

[tims4wins]

Dear god Corrente and Morelli are horrible. But that being said the crews are all star crews so at least it's not the normal crews

 

[jsinger121]

Dear god Corrente and Morelli are horrible. But that being said the crews are all star crews so at least it's not the normal crews

Hope its Gene Steratore for the Super Bowl or Carl Cheffers.

 

[phenweigh]

Not surprisingly, all 13 of those games have come since the beginning of the 2007 season.

Let's go further...

• The Patriots are 21-0 in games where they were favored by 14 or more points (all games since 2007).
• They are 28-1 in games where they were favored by 13 or more points (only 2 games prior to 2007).

Finally, Belichick's Patriots have only once been dogs by 13 or more points (+14 to be exact). It should be obvious which game that was.

538 has the Pats at 85% favorites. Given the above, that seems low.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Dear god Corrente and Morelli are horrible. But that being said the crews are all star crews so at least it's not the normal crews

"All star" is a relative term

 

[Tony C]

538 has the Pats at 85% favorites. Given the above, that seems low.

Given the raw memory of the Pats losing to 9 point underdog Jets and Hillary losing after being 99% assured of victory by certain stats' guys (not Nate Silver), forgive the Chicken Littles among us to be a bit wary of all the "there is no way they lose this game" proclamations. Shit happens. Of course they are and should be overwhelming favorites, but it's not just that it's bad karma to assume victory....those assumptions are sometimes/occasionally wrong. Save our sanity by adding that minor caveat to the confidence.

 

[Stitch01]

Come on, there has to be some sort of limit on healthy pessimism. The Pats losing to the Jets is about the equivalent level upset as the Pats losing to Houston this week if Jimmy G starts over Brady. Elections and football games are apples and bowling balls. Sure, they could lose the game, but it would take the greatest upset in playoff history.

I wont be offended if you put me on ignore, but Im not going to post all week pretending the Texans have a 15% chance of winning this game to placate worries about bad karma. The Pats roll barring Eagles game in '15 level stupidity/giveaways (and they'll probably still have a chance to win just like in that game).

 

[RG33]

I am almost considering not watching this game live and instead going to a wine-tasting event with my wife.

The Patriots are not coming anywhere close to losing this game. 44-10, or along those lines.

Like others, I much prefer the one-dimensional, big-play reliant Chiefs (coupled with Andy Reid making clock decisions) than going anywhere near Bell & Bryant.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

whoever ref'd the BAL divisional game and the SEA super bowl two years ago was a solid ref. Wher'es that guy

 

[tims4wins]

Vinovich

 

[phenweigh]

Given the raw memory of the Pats losing to 9 point underdog Jets and Hillary losing after being 99% assured of victory by certain stats' guys (not Nate Silver), forgive the Chicken Littles among us to be a bit wary of all the "there is no way they lose this game" proclamations. Shit happens. Of course they are and should be overwhelming favorites, but it's not just that it's bad karma to assume victory....those assumptions are sometimes/occasionally wrong. Save our sanity by adding that minor caveat to the confidence.

I agree that victory is not certain, but I think the probability is more like 90% rather than 85%. Optically, that doesn't look like a big difference (only 5%), but put it as 9 of 10 instead of 5 of 6 and the optics are bigger.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I am almost considering not watching this game live and instead going to a wine-tasting event with my wife.

The Patriots are not coming anywhere close to losing this game. 44-10, or along those lines.

Like others, I much prefer the one-dimensional, big-play reliant Chiefs (coupled with Andy Reid making clock decisions) than going anywhere near Bell & Bryant.

I just want to say that it's awesome that we've come to the point that some Pats playoff games bore us before they are even played. (I'm not being sarcastic. If I had something better to do, I might punt this one, too.)

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I too think the Pats would have to lay a colossal egg to lose this game, but not watch? Wine tasting? WTF?

I cannot fucking wait for this game. Someday we might be like the Bills again and a decade and a half might go by without us having a playoff game period, never mind a home playoff game.

I get being confident that the Pats will win, but if you aren't going to even watch the playoff games what's the point of even following the team?

Apologies in advance if I am overreacting to posts made in jest.

 

[j-man]

NE Shouild win Easy but If weather is bad and u come out slow i couild see like only a 24-10 win

 

[j-man]

but as a fan of another team enjoy this time u get at the top

 

[Ferm Sheller]

NE Shouild win Easy but If weather is bad and u come out slow i couild see like only a 24-10 win

24-10? That would suck.

In all seriousness, I am predicting a 24-7 score that "feels like" a 124-7 game.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I just want to say that it's awesome that we've come to the point that some Pats playoff games bore us before they are even played. (I'm not being sarcastic. If I had something better to do, I might punt this one, too.)

If this was the AFCCG I'd watch it live. But Houston, in Gillette? I'll be DVRing it so I can play in my miserable B league hockey game, thank you.

But I will watch it, for sure.

 

[Oppo]

but as a fan of another team enjoy this time u get at the top

16 years and counting

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Given the raw memory of the Pats losing to 9 point underdog Jets and Hillary losing after being 99% assured of victory by certain stats' guys (not Nate Silver), forgive the Chicken Littles among us to be a bit wary of all the "there is no way they lose this game" proclamations. Shit happens. Of course they are and should be overwhelming favorites, but it's not just that it's bad karma to assume victory....those assumptions are sometimes/occasionally wrong. Save our sanity by adding that minor caveat to the confidence.

These days, whatever infuriates the greatest number of people is what will happen. Ergo, Brady and Bill shaking Trump's hand at the White House in 2017.

It all starts Saturday!

 

[Moog]

Bill Belichick on Texans (via WEEI interview): "You have to work for everything. ... Good kicker. They've won all their 3-point games, and 8 of the 12 one-score games."

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0610239242865480515-4

This is an extremely Belichickian way of saying "only won 2 games by more than 7 points."

 

[j-man]

These days, whatever infuriates the greatest number of people is what will happen. Ergo, Brady and Bill shaking Trump's hand at the White House in 2017.

It all starts Saturday!

it is going to be a NE-DAL Super Bowl barring a alltime performance by Pitt or any of the NFC

 

[Devizier]

Given the raw memory of the Pats losing to 9 point underdog Jets and Hillary losing after being 99% assured of victory by certain stats' guys (not Nate Silver), forgive the Chicken Littles among us to be a bit wary of all the "there is no way they lose this game" proclamations.

I'm the same way, except that I'm not so much worried about a loss as wary about the fact that it could happen. There have been bigger upsets in football.

 

[Tony C]

Come on, there has to be some sort of limit on healthy pessimism. The Pats losing to the Jets is about the equivalent level upset as the Pats losing to Houston this week if Jimmy G starts over Brady. Elections and football games are apples and bowling balls. Sure, they could lose the game, but it would take the greatest upset in playoff history.

I wont be offended if you put me on ignore, but Im not going to post all week pretending the Texans have a 15% chance of winning this game to placate worries about bad karma. The Pats roll barring Eagles game in '15 level stupidity/giveaways (and they'll probably still have a chance to win just like in that game).

I agree that victory is not certain, but I think the probability is more like 90% rather than 85%. Optically, that doesn't look like a big difference (only 5%), but put it as 9 of 10 instead of 5 of 6 and the optics are bigger.

I didn't say anything in my post about only 85% chance of winning. I said the Pats are overwhelming favorites. Just don't say there's "no way" they'll lose. It'd be a huge upset if they lost -- I'd give it even more than a 90% chance of winning -- but saying "shit happens" is not unhealthy pessimism.

 

[djbayko]

538 has the Pats at 85% favorites. Given the above, that seems low.

I'm kicking myself for not putting more money on the Pats when they opened at -13.5 yesterday.

I realize those records aren't against the spread but I, still regretting it.

 

[djbayko]

Bill Belichick on Texans (via WEEI interview): "You have to work for everything. ... Good kicker. They've won all their 3-point games, and 8 of the 12 one-score games."

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0610239242865480515-4

This is an extremely Belichickian way of saying "only won 2 games by more than 7 points."

I'm sure Bill didn't mean it as a backhanded compliment, but it's a backhanded compliment.

 

[Stitch01]

I didn't say anything in my post about only 85% chance of winning. I said the Pats are overwhelming favorites. Just don't say there's "no way" they'll lose. It'd be a huge upset if they lost -- I'd give it even more than a 90% chance of winning -- but saying "shit happens" is not unhealthy pessimism.

Sorry, the only thing the post you quoted said was that 85 percent was low so wasn't sure how else to read it your post other than saying you disagreed with that.

That said lol karma in this game. There's no way the Patriots will lose .

 

[CantKeepmedown]

I think others have alluded to the same thing, but from a confidence level, I'm viewing this in the same light as the divisional playoff game against the Tebow led Broncos back in 2011-2012 (also a Saturday night game). I can't remember what the spread of that game was, but I know most people (rightfully so) were pretty confident.

 

[mwonow]

Sorry, the only thing the post you quoted said was that 85 percent was low so wasn't sure how else to read it your post other than saying you disagreed with that.

That said lol karma in this game. There's no way the Patriots will lose .

Aren't you the same guy who was raving about not being afraid of Denver in Denver a year ago?

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

That kid telling ESPN to get f*cked totally made my day. Pats fans are the absolute best.

 

[Stitch01]

Aren't you the same guy who was raving about not being afraid of Denver in Denver a year ago?

Sure, if you ignore these are two completely different situationsand that my comments about the Patriots chances were completely different for each game that's an astute observation.

 

[mwonow]

Sure, if you ignore these are two completely different situationsand that my comments about the Patriots chances were completely different for each game that's an astute observation.

Well, there's a bit of a common thread. Let's see if you can spot it...this is just one example, but IIRC, there were many others.

Denver is a modestly above average team.

Pats were head and shoulders above the AFC when healthy and are now healthy.

Feel pretty good about this one. Not a gimme but about as favorable a road game as the Pats could have.

The words are different...but an 'astute' observer might not agree with you when you claim that "my comments about the Patriots chances were completely different for each game"

 

[RG33]

I too think the Pats would have to lay a colossal egg to lose this game, but not watch? Wine tasting? WTF?

LOL -- I said "almost considering".

The mere fact I thought about it is really impressive though.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

That kid telling ESPN to get f*cked totally made my day. Pats fans are the absolute best.

Didn't that also happen earlier this season when there was a cell phone video of TB12 filming a commercial posted to social media: WWL asked for clearance, owner told WWL to pound sand?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Didn't that also happen earlier this season when there was a cell phone video of TB12 filming a commercial posted to social media: WWL asked for clearance, owner told WWL to pound sand?

Yep, someone with the camera phone caught Brady practicing and posted it on Twitter. All the local media outlets asked for permission and he said absolutely. ESPN did and he said they were absolutely not permitted to use the footage because DG was their fault. Classic.

 

[Stitch01]

Well, there's a bit of a common thread. Let's see if you can spot it...this is just one example, but IIRC, there were many others.



The words are different...but an 'astute' observer might not agree with you when you claim that "my comments about the Patriots chances were completely different for each game"

If you consider "hey this as favorable a road game as the Pats could have , not a gimme but I feel pretty good about the Pats chances" to be similar to "they're playing a bad team at home. It would be the greatest upset in NFL playoff history if the Pats lose" then I can't help you.

 

[j44thor]

24-10? That would suck.

In all seriousness, I am predicting a 24-7 score that "feels like" a 124-7 game.

So you are saying we would be better off with Jacoby Brisset under C???

It will be an upset if NE doesn't hit 24 by halftime. 38-6 feels about right.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

So you are saying we would be better off with Jacoby Brisset under C???

It will be an upset if NE doesn't hit 24 by halftime. 38-6 feels about right.

I mean, if they needed to score that many points, they probably would. I just don't think they'll be motivated to destroy them. A lower scoring game that's never in doubt. Like the game against the Rams this year.

 

[j44thor]

I mean, if they needed to score that many points, they probably would. I just don't think they'll be motivated to destroy them. A lower scoring game that's never in doubt. Like the game against the Rams this year.

A playoff game against one of the outspoken owners on DFG. I think they have more than enough motivation to destroy them. They put up 41 against a hapless NYJ team.

 

[tims4wins]

I mean, if they needed to score that many points, they probably would. I just don't think they'll be motivated to destroy them. A lower scoring game that's never in doubt. Like the game against the Rams this year.

I kind of agree with this. Pats will score, but will also be held to a few FGs instead of TDs. 27-13 or so.