Pats vs Texans: The buildup

Saints Rest

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24-10? That would suck.

In all seriousness, I am predicting a 24-7 score that "feels like" a 124-7 game.
I thought you were going to say I am predicting a 24-7 score by halftime.
Which sounds about right to me.
A garbage time drones half leaves us around 37-17.

We may think there is motivation for BB and the Pats against DG-related teams, but I think BB cares more about BO'B than that and will this forego the proverbial FUTD
 

mwonow

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If you consider "hey this as favorable a road game as the Pats could have , not a gimme but I feel pretty good about the Pats chances" to be similar to "they're playing a bad team at home. It would be the greatest upset in NFL playoff history if the Pats lose" then I can't help you.
If you can't see the parallels between the two quotes - or own your braggadocio down the stretch and into Denver last year - then you're right, you're not equipped to be of help.

This is the point where SoSH tradition would suggest a little something benefiting the Jimmy Fund, but astute SoSH readers know better than to take your action on something like that.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This is a 38-3 type game. BB isn't holding shit back because of BoB. And he doesn't care about McNair and DG. He plays foot down on gas and no other way this time of year.
 

Stitch01

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If you can't see the parallels between the two quotes - or own your braggadocio down the stretch and into Denver last year - then you're right, you're not equipped to be of help.

This is the point where SoSH tradition would suggest a little something benefiting the Jimmy Fund, but astute SoSH readers know better than to take your action on something like that.
Lol. That's fully paid, but keep firing. You miss 100 percent of shots you don't take. You want to light your money on fire with Houston have at it hoss, someone will take your action.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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If you can't see the parallels between the two quotes - or own your braggadocio down the stretch and into Denver last year - then you're right, you're not equipped to be of help.

This is the point where SoSH tradition would suggest a little something benefiting the Jimmy Fund, but astute SoSH readers know better than to take your action on something like that.
You are trying really hard to be a hardass here and I'm not sure why. I see what Stitch is saying and I can see the difference between his two statements, not particularly difficult. What kind of bet are you talking about making here for this game? That the Pats won't win? Won't win by X? Let me know, I'd happily make a small bet with you to benefit the Jimmy Fund.
 

mwonow

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You are trying really hard to be a hardass here and I'm not sure why. I see what Stitch is saying and I can see the difference between his two statements, not particularly difficult. What kind of bet are you talking about making here for this game? That the Pats won't win? Won't win by X? Let me know, I'd happily make a small bet with you to benefit the Jimmy Fund.
Sorry, not trying to be a hardass (and sorry Stitch, the bet comment was over the top), just not a fan of the "we're the bestest, no one else can tough us" smack that bubbles up this year, especially after having to watch PeyPey get a hideously undeserved ring a year ago.

I don't have any actual desire to bet against the Pats (or Pats dominance) in any way. That said, I'm generally up for ways to benefit the Jimmy Fund. Is there a way to structure something so that I'm happy to pay if I lose? Having the Pats lose would DEFINITELY not meet that criterion! A squeaker probably wouldn't, either. Gross point differential for the balance of the playoffs, maybe? I don't know, but happy to consider a (as you say, modest) bet if we can come up with something...
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The other alternative is just making a donation and shutting the fuck up about trying to parse levels of confidence of an anonymous message board poster.
 
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DJnVa

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If you can't see the parallels between the two quotes - or own your braggadocio down the stretch and into Denver last year - then you're right, you're not equipped to be of help.
I think you're off a bit. "A favorable road matchup" is similar to "would be greatest playoff upset" in the sense that the poster thinks the Pats will/would win both games, but that's about it.

I'm not sure this is the hill to die on here.
 

mwonow

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Sorry, not trying to be a hardass (and sorry Stitch, the bet comment was over the top), just not a fan of the "we're the bestest, no one else can tough us" smack that bubbles up this year, especially after having to watch PeyPey get a hideously undeserved ring a year ago.

I don't have any actual desire to bet against the Pats (or Pats dominance) in any way. That said, I'm generally up for ways to benefit the Jimmy Fund. Is there a way to structure something so that I'm happy to pay if I lose? Having the Pats lose would DEFINITELY not meet that criterion! A squeaker probably wouldn't, either. Gross point differential for the balance of the playoffs, maybe? I don't know, but happy to consider a (as you say, modest) bet if we can come up with something...
I set up a pool along these lines in another thread. Hope to see y'all there!
 

mwonow

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I think you're off a bit. "A favorable road matchup" is similar to "would be greatest playoff upset" in the sense that the poster thinks the Pats will/would win both games, but that's about it.

I'm not sure this is the hill to die on here.
Agreed, and in the spirit of moving ahead, I've set up a separate prognostication pool thread
 

Tyrone Biggums

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If someone is willing to put money on Houston straight up then I'm game haha. No chance that clown show covers
 

Tony C

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Per the below, it seems there's a wide open betting market for those that insist being termed an "overwhelming favorite" with an over 90% chance of winning understates the Pats' chances and is being unduly pessimistic. Go to it, boys!
Just saw that Football Outsiders' DVOA-based predictions are now up as well:

--New England: 89.5%
--Atlanta: 69.4%
--Dallas: 66.9%
--Kansas City: 55.8%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Pinnacle, which is the best representation of the betting market, currently has the Pats just under 91% (~14.5-1.5 if you played it 16 times) by merging the +858 you'd get betting the Texans ML and -1150 you have to lay on the Pats. There's still a lot of time for the market to mature though.
 

nothumb

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Put me in the camp that expects a comfortable win but perhaps not an easy cover, as the Pats may be looking for a low risk / low variance kind of game. I still suspect they cover with something like a 28-10 final.
 

InstaFace

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That kid telling ESPN to get f*cked totally made my day. Pats fans are the absolute best.
He went with his initial gut reaction, and didn't make a bad decision, but I bet if he'd given it a little thought he might have come back with something like, "you can only use it if you agree to the stipulation that any presentation of it has to be accompanied right next to it by a disclaimer that the Pats were railroaded in Ballghazi and no deflation of anything actually happened".

Think of the angst in the ESPN media room deciding whether to go with a hilarious picture of Belichick looking like a hobo, or deny themselves that joy because they don't want to make any proclamations about that incident during NFL playoff season (and half of them probably think Brady "did it" anyway). They'd never run it, in the end, but they'd spend way more time agonizing about it.
 

SMU_Sox

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I am at work and can't get online to 5dimes but if anyone wants to post prop bets from the HOU-NE game I would be up for some charitable bets that way.
 

Al Zarilla

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Maybe it wasn't a "blizzard," but it was a whiteout when the Patriots played the Titans in 2009.

Do you know Brady's stat line that game, where he had (an) arguably less talented overall receiving corps?

29/34 380 yards 6 TD 0 INT. He had a near-perfect QBR.

I'm not saying it would happen again, and I know Houston's defense is better than the Titans were that year, but these Texans are the exact kind of team that completely turtles in this type of game.

It would be much worse than if it's played on a clean field.
That was a wet snow and not a lot of wind IIRC. By definition, a blizzard includes high winds. I think Tom, like all QBs, abhors high winds.
 

Blue Monkey

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That was a wet snow and not a lot of wind IIRC. By definition, a blizzard includes high winds. I think Tom, like all QBs, abhors high winds.
I was at this game and as I recall it was played in a nor'easter and I remember it being pretty windy. Not blizzard wind but quite high. Probably the most miserable experience I've ever had watching a live game. The temps we're right around 40 but it felt so much worse.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I am at work and can't get online to 5dimes but if anyone wants to post prop bets from the HOU-NE game I would be up for some charitable bets that way.
I don't have 5dimes so can't log in there but the only prop I can find using google is first half NE -10 (-105) o/u 22.5
 

Al Zarilla

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I was at this game and as I recall it was played in a nor'easter and I remember it being pretty windy. Not blizzard wind but quite high. Probably the most miserable experience I've ever had watching a live game. The temps we're right around 40 but it felt so much worse.
OK, I stand corrected about the wind. All the more remarkable performance by Tom then.
 

RIrooter09

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Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss 3m3 minutes ago


Starting DT Alan Branch the lone Patriots player not spotted at practice today. Was not spotted during a bye-week practice as well.
Is anyone else concerned about our DT depth? We currently have only three on the roster. I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but if we end up playing Dallas in the Super Bowl, is that enough to hold up against the run for four quarters?
 

E5 Yaz

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Is anyone else concerned about our DT depth? We currently have only three on the roster. I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but if we end up playing Dallas in the Super Bowl, is that enough to hold up against the run for four quarters?
Apparently, you don't
 

djbayko

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I don't have 5dimes so can't log in there but the only prop I can find using google is first half NE -10 (-105) o/u 22.5
Online sports books don't post props until the day of the game. They also have lower max bets. It's their way of limiting exposure since the lines usually aren't as tight.

First half score is always an exception because it's early action on the game total O/U and so closely related.
 
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Super Nomario

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Is anyone else concerned about our DT depth? We currently have only three on the roster. I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but if we end up playing Dallas in the Super Bowl, is that enough to hold up against the run for four quarters?
There are two DT on the PS, so if Branch can't go there's a good chance they make a roster move.
 

kelpapa

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Edelman's reaction after the throw and the comment by BB about Edelman icing his shoulder after practice kill me every time.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Man, Amendola really should get some credit there.

It's the little things, right? They were on the ropes against Baltimore. Danny signaling the team to scratch the lateral against Kansas City kept it in the play book to keep it alive for Baltimore. Who knows what happens if they don't have it there.
 

SMU_Sox

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So sorry completely forgot that the lines are not yet released for player props. Last year we did projections and Wednesday was the day we put expected production out. Well... Saturday then I will be at home and ready to rumble. I'll take the under for Hopkins probably. Also the under for Miller... probably.
 

DJnVa

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Man, Amendola really should get some credit there.

It's the little things, right? They were on the ropes against Baltimore. Danny signaling the team to scratch the lateral against Kansas City kept it in the play book to keep it alive for Baltimore. Who knows what happens if they don't have it there.
Yeah, not only does calling it off because it's not the right defense keep it off film, it also means that they don't run it against a bad look and possibly scrap it all together because it didn't work.
 

BigJimEd

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I was at this game and as I recall it was played in a nor'easter and I remember it being pretty windy. Not blizzard wind but quite high. Probably the most miserable experience I've ever had watching a live game. The temps we're right around 40 but it felt so much worse.
According to Pro Football Reference, temp was 39 and wind was 13 mph.
 

Carlos Cowart

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Houston's < 10% chance of winning this game rides on
You mean this, in the divisional? (9:57 mark)

Holy crap. Around 9:00 mark of that thing Welker says he's not feeling well, then Edelman takes one to the house around 9:40 - Belichick says into his headset: "Hey Ernie, what was that guy's name who played before Gehrig?" Then goes over and asks Welker if he's ever heard of Wally Pipp.

Edit: Actually it's the next video, Belichick's football life vol 1.
 
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Blue Monkey

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According to Pro Football Reference, temp was 39 and wind was 13 mph.
Well it sure felt a lot windier in the 300 level haha. It's the coldest ive ever been during a sporting event. Completely soaked. I went to the Broncos game when it was in the teens and it was so much more comfortable.
 

Al Zarilla

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Well it sure felt a lot windier in the 300 level haha. It's the coldest ive ever been during a sporting event. Completely soaked. I went to the Broncos game when it was in the teens and it was so much more comfortable.
Sure, and the coldest I've ever been was on a day skiiing at Alpine Meadows when it was about 35 with rain/sleet mix all day. That shit penetrates all clothing. Too new at skiing at the time to just go inside the lodge and drink.
o_O
 

steveluck7

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NBC 10 in Providence just had their sports report. They indicated that Brady practiced but has a thigh injury.
He reported it like it was something that's been talked about but it's the first I heard
 

tims4wins

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NBC 10 in Providence just had their sports report. They indicated that Brady practiced but has a thigh injury.
He reported it like it was something that's been talked about but it's the first I heard
He's missed the Wednesday practice for the last month
 

Super Nomario

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For the record, Brady has been listed with the knee since the 49ers game (he missed two days of practice the following week, before the Jets game, and then one day before the Rams game). Then he was off the injury report for two weeks (Ravens and Broncos). After the Broncos game, he went back on for a thigh. He was limited all week before the first Jets game, and missed the Wednesday practice before the Dolphins game.
 

ShaneTrot

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He's been nursing it since he got hit by Chancellor.
Wow, that game was November 13th. Is it more likely his knee or hip? Find it hard to believe a thigh bruise would linger for almost 2 months. Then again, he is tough, he played the Denver playoff game in 06 with a sports hernia.
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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Wow, that game was November 13th. Is it more likely his knee or hip? Find it hard to believe a thigh bruise would linger for almost 2 months. Then again, he is tough, he played the Denver playoff game in 06 with a sports hernia.
That shit lingers