Passan reporting Lester/Gomes to the A's for Cespedes

[IdiotKicker]

I understand the desire to get prospects, but I think that sometimes we tend to overvalue exactly how good those prospects are actually going to be in the majors.  Look at BA's 2007 top 10 list:
 
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. Alex Gordon
3. Delmon Young
4. Phil Hughes
5. Homer Bailey
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Evan Longoria
8. Brandon Wood
9. Justin Upton
10. Andrew Miller
 
A couple studs come out of there, and a few other good major leaguers, but it's not like it's anywhere near certain that you're actually going to get production.  We've seen that from our own prospects this year as they've experienced growing pains and tried to produce at the major league level.  In my mind, if you can't get 2-3 prospects in a trade, I would absolutely prefer to get a guy like Cespedes, just because there is still so much uncertainty with prospects.
 
Cespedes is a known commodity.  Is he perfect?  Nope.  He probably doesn't get on base quite enough, and even with his throwing arm, he clearly seems to have some lapses in the field sometimes.  But he is very much an above-average major leaguer who should be good for around 3 WAR a year at a very reasonable cost.  That's a pretty good return for 2 months of Jon Lester.
 
Do I love how the club handled the whole situation?  Definitely not.  I would make the case that this should have been wrapped up a long time ago.  But given the situation they have gotten themselves into, I think this is a very good outcome, and I'm pretty happy with the end result.

 

[redsahx]

 

Ben made the best deal he could, but I can't do cartwheels over this trip back to the future. Trading a top pitcher for a putative bopper is a formula repeatedly tried and found lacking by the Red Sox since Fenway was built.
 
Lester for the new Rob Deer is indeed meh. Hopefully Cespedes is the exception and puts up a 2015 akin to Esasky's one year in Boston.

Rob Deer was a career .220 hitter, and was finished by the time he came to the Red Sox. Even at his peak he was putting up some pretty low OPS+.

Deer's career .220/.324/.442
Cespedes thus far: .262/.318/.470

Cespedes for two months of Lester when you are out of contention is a different story. Does this dramatically change their odds of resigning Lester anyways?

(EDIT: SHould have added that I expect Cespedes to see at least some improvement at Fenway vs. the Coliseum)

 

[Orange Julia]

In September when they're mathematically eliminated Cespedes is going to fill fenway. Only thing that matters to fans is WINNING

Because the internet has no tone and you didn't use emoticons, I don't know what you're saying exactly. If you're saying that all fans care about is winning, there are 22 ball parks across the country that have better attendance this year than the A's who seem to be doing a lot of winning.  Perhaps the Red Sox fans from 2004 only care about winning but I would suggest that many fans (including the 1,000,000 reading this topic right now) really care about baseball, winning being a really big part of that. My point is that to assume that the front office doesn't give a  rat's ass about the fans and that they don't ever consult with the people in marketing is probably not accurate.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Right, but it's: (a) two months of Lester, in what was widely (and perhaps incorrectly) portrayed as a massive seller's market,

 
So, because the media may have misread the market, we then judge the return based on that misreading?

 

[dylanmarsh]

The Red Sox traded 2 MONTHS of Lester

This. They retained a draft pick and received a good outfielder, who is signed at a reasonable rate and will dominate in LF. For two months of Lester.

I also think they did Lester a favor by eliminating his QO. I don't know if he'll re-sign in Boston but he doesn't have to deal with the QO.

 

[Luis Taint]

Wow, that looks like my pants, as well.

 

[brandonchristensen]

I'm very lukewarm based on his stats. I know he has RH power, but I will need to see him play.

I can understand liking it, but it's weird to be thrilled to me.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

There's no way to know right now whether this could be prologue or epilogue to our Stanton dreaming.  But there have been rumors of Miami's interest in trading for players this week suggesting that they're in GFIN mode.  They certainly wouldn't trade Stanton for prospects if that's the case.  BUT... they MIGHT trade him for a cheap Lackey, Cespedes (a decent mid-order bat replacement for Stanton, who would also play well to their fan base), and a top prospect or two that would allow them to improve now and in the future, without it costing them much.  This might not be likely, but I don't see why others think that's inconceivable.
 
And in any event, Cespedes himself gives us hard-to-find RH power and an extra year to see if we can extend him on reasonable terms.  He and the comp pick represent solid value in return for two months of Lester.

 

[RochesterSamHorn]

per MLB Rumors

Latest On Rusney Castillo
By Steve Adams [July 29, 2014 at 1:18pm CDT]

TUESDAY: Castillo, who worked out for the Phillies today, has set up a private workout with the Mariners on Sunday as well, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). His one-on-one workout with the Red Sox is still set for Friday.

Let's not forget the implications this could have going forward.

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I don't think teams were willing to part with their top 1-3 guys for 2 months of Jon Lester.  That is just the reality of today's game. This trade suggests that the best deal on the table was an established Major League player over a smattering of A-AA players, who may or may not break out.  I don't think this has a ton to do with "the plan" (whatever that is) or with being competitive in 2015 versus full blown rebuilding.  This was about taking the best deal they could for 2 months of their best pitcher.  Whiffing on prospects would add insult to injury - at least the front office is getting a known entity while making a minor gamble that Fenway will help boost his power numbers. 

 

[benhogan]

Nava would now seem to be the odd man out. Does Ben now trade him to a contender looking for a fourth outfielder who can handle righties? 
 
But maybe they don't trust Vic to stay healthy, which I wouldn't blame them for.

I'd think CARP is the odd man out. 

 

[xjack]

If only I'd left out the emoticon
 


Snodgrass'Muff, on 30 Jul 2014 - 4:04 PM, said:

 
I don't see how the A's can put together a competitive offer for Lester unless there is just no market for him, which doesn't appear to be the case. 
 
Where is the match here?

 
Cespedes 

 

[bosockboy]

Such an outside the box deal for both sides.  Have to admire Beane--he sees this year with no NY or Boston superpowers to deal with and only Detroit in the way, so goes and gets a rotation that can beat them.

 

[JimD]

 
Right, but it's: (a) two months of Lester, in what was widely (and perhaps incorrectly) portrayed as a massive seller's market

 
A massive seller's market which a.) ends this afternoon, and b. ) apparently did not exist in reality when the buyer's were unwilling to relinquish their top prospects.

 

[TOleary25]

Dave Cameron likes it:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lester-and-the-as-fascinating-big-bet-on-2014/
 

 
For the Red Sox, this trade makes all the sense in the world. They don’t want to rebuild, and now they have a power-hitting right-handed corner outfielder under contract for next year’s shot at redemption. They’ll likely still make another run at re-signing Lester, and they’ll get at least one draft pick from this deal, and maybe two if they let Cespedes walk after giving him a qualifying offer next year. A couple of draft picks and an underpriced year of a quality big league outfielder is a nice return for a couple of a rental.

 
 
With Cespedes only making $10.5M next season, offering him an extension while giving him more money in 2015 seems like a good option.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Well, does Cespdes play caroms well or does he have a power arm that can make up for his fielding gaffes? That remains to be seen. And we should stop projecting 40HRs because he will absolutely be pitched to differently once he gets to Fenway.

 
No player is likely to hit 40 home runs in any season. Those days are gone. I'd be comfortable putting money on Cespedes hitting 30 next year, though. The one thing about him that is undeniable is his power.
 

per MLB Rumors Latest On Rusney Castillo
By Steve Adams [July 29, 2014 at 1:18pm CDT]

TUESDAY: Castillo, who worked out for the Phillies today, has set up a private workout with the Mariners on Sunday as well, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). His one-on-one workout with the Red Sox is still set for Friday.

Let's not forget the implications this could have going forward.
 

 
Interesting thought. I'd argue it makes them more likely to go after Tomas than Castillo, since Thomas could be convinced to start in Pawtucket and Castillo is likely looking to hit the ground running at the major league level. Signing Tomas with the hope that he replaces Victorino in 2016 makes sense.

 

[Dogman]

I'm very lukewarm based on his stats. I know he has RH power, but I will need to see him play.

I can understand liking it, but it's weird to be thrilled to me.

 
You need to see him play?  
 
Holy shit. The man has played in the league for a few years, is a known power hitter and is moving from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to an easily reachable LF wall in Fenway. Oh and his 162 game projection in Fenway: 29 HR.  Throw in the fact that Ortiz and Napoli are in some way going to sandwich him in the lineup and he is gonna see a fuckton of pitches to drive.
 
But, yeah, let's cry that his OBP is low coming from a cavernous park with zero lineup protection.

 

[Fred in Lynn]

 
Rob Deer was a career .220 hitter, and was finished by the time he came to the Red Sox. Even at his peak he was putting up some pretty low OPS+.

Deer's career .220/.324/.442
Cespedes thus far: .262/.318/.470

Good point, and they're not all that comparable as hitters. Deer had plus plate discipline, he just couldn't make contact very often.

 

[Tim Salmon]

 
So, because the media may have misread the market, we then judge the return based on that misreading?

 
I was referring to the emotional reaction, i.e., the reasons for disappointment.  I'm not grading the front office here... I'm simply pointing that, after listening to the media hype for a couple days, one year of an undisciplined OF for a team that may or may not be in rebuilding mode is underwhelming.

 

[Seven Costanza]

 
You need to see him play?  
 
Holy shit. The man has played in the league for a few years, is a known power hitter and is moving from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to an easily reachable LF wall in Fenway. Oh and his 162 game projection in Fenway: 29 HR.  Throw in the fact that Ortiz and Napoli are in some way going to sandwich him in the lineup and he is gonna see a fuckton of pitches to drive.
 
But, yeah, let's cry that his OBP is low coming from a cavernous park with zero lineup protection.

 
I'm going to quote this so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

 

[redsahx]

 

So, because the media may have misread the market, we then judge the return based on that misreading?

 
The media's reporting on the entire Lester saga has been atrocius. In keeping with their narrative, I'd expect most of the stories about this trade to have a contrived negative slant. CHB is a given, but I'm sure the warts of Cespedes will be topic #1 on the afternoon drive shows.

 

[Plympton91]

I guess with the competitive balance pick included this is better return than they got for Peavy, but not by as much as I was expecting.  Given the SABR orientation of the A's front office, it's probably the case that the difference between league average (Peavy) and great (Lester) over 12 starts just isn't all that big, so maybe that isn't a surprise.
 
Here's one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things:
 
Career vs. right handed pitchers (you know, the ones who pitch 70 percent of the games)
 
Player A:  222 / 307 / 415
Player B: 257 / 306 / 459
Player C: 291 / 387 / 428
 
Player B's BABip may rise about 20 points, Player C's BABip may or may not fall about 20 points.
 
Who do you want playing the 70 percent of the games against righthanders in 2015?

 

[IdiotKicker]

I guess with the competitive balance pick included this is better return than they got for Peavy, but not by as much as I was expecting.  Given the SABR orientation of the A's front office, it's probably the case that the difference between league average (Peavy) and great (Lester) over 12 starts just isn't all that big, so maybe that isn't a surprise.
 
Here's one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things:
 
Career vs. right handed pitchers (you know, the ones who pitch 70 percent of the games)
 
Player A:  222 / 307 / 415
Player B: 257 / 306 / 459
Player C: 291 / 387 / 428
 
Player B's BABip may rise about 20 points, Player C's BABip may or may not fall about 20 points.
 
Who do you want playing the 70 percent of the games against righthanders in 2015?

 
B

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I understand the desire to get prospects, but I think that sometimes we tend to overvalue exactly how good those prospects are actually going to be in the majors.  Look at BA's 2007 top 10 list:
 
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. Alex Gordon
3. Delmon Young
4. Phil Hughes
5. Homer Bailey
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Evan Longoria
8. Brandon Wood
9. Justin Upton
10. Andrew Miller
 
A couple studs come out of there, and a few other good major leaguers, but it's not like it's anywhere near certain that you're actually going to get production.  We've seen that from our own prospects this year as they've experienced growing pains and tried to produce at the major league level.  In my mind, if you can't get 2-3 prospects in a trade, I would absolutely prefer to get a guy like Cespedes, just because there is still so much uncertainty with prospects.
 
Cespedes is a known commodity.  Is he perfect?  Nope.  He probably doesn't get on base quite enough, and even with his throwing arm, he clearly seems to have some lapses in the field sometimes.  But he is very much an above-average major leaguer who should be good for around 3 WAR a year at a very reasonable cost.  That's a pretty good return for 2 months of Jon Lester.
 
Do I love how the club handled the whole situation?  Definitely not.  I would make the case that this should have been wrapped up a long time ago.  But given the situation they have gotten themselves into, I think this is a very good outcome, and I'm pretty happy with the end result.

agreed.  In fact, it would be nice to see if some of the prospects could be converted into better known quantities--e.g. by dealing Coyle, a couple of the top pitching prospects, Margot, or Rijo, could they get a known commodity?  That may be a question to be answered in the off-season.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
If only I'd left out the emoticon
 


Snodgrass'Muff, on 30 Jul 2014 - 4:04 PM, said:
 
Cespedes 



 

 
To be fair, if you'd suggested Lester would be swapped for Cespedes at 4pm yesterday, you'd have been laughed off the site. It's amazing how often huge deals like this come out of nowhere.

 

[ivanvamp]

Cespedes should be a 30-hr, 90-rbi, 120 ops+ guy with Boston, while also providing plus defense (mainly because of his arm). If they want, they can probably extend or re-sign him for $18 million a year or so.

Stanton, who we all would prefer, probably ends up being a 40-hr, 110-rbi, 150 ops+ guy with Boston, but he'd not only cost a ton in terms of prospects, he'd also likely command a contract in the neighborhood of 8-10 years and $30 million.

So yeah I'd rather have Stanton, no question about it. And maybe it's still possible when all is said and done. But for a little more than half the money, Cespedes provides pretty solid performance (much better than half of Stanton's production).

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I can't believe some people are complaining about getting a proven All Star caliber OF for 2 months of Lester.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's funny - people were complaining about what the Red Sox were planning on doing next year and how they were going to field a competitive team.  So they trade their top pitcher for an All-Star level, 28-year-old OF with power and they complain that the Red Sox didn't get any prospects?
 
I'm not saying that Red Sox are going to be favored for anything next year, but they do have financial flexibility, and if their young players (including X and JBJ) start performing to projections or even exceed them, they could have an exciting team next year.

 

[threecy]

From a fan's perspective, I hate this.  Especially with Pedroia's offensive decline, Lester has been far and away my favorite player to follow.
 
From a business perspective, it's too soon to tell.  If they somehow get Lester back (pretty low odds I suspect), then it could be quite a deal.

 

[Tim Salmon]

I can't believe some people are complaining about getting one year of a proven All Star caliber OF for 2 months of Lester.

 
Fixed this for you.  Also, much of the disappointment stems from the fact that it's not clear whether the Sox will even field a competitive team next year.  Cespedes will make another All-Star game next year if he's playing for a team that wins 75 games.  And that does nothing for me.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Link to the Cespedes spray chart on baseballsavant.com. It also has his other plate tendencies in easy to read graphs.
 

I had to go fangraphs version to double check that the solid diamonds in the legend above were the "hollow" diamonds in the graphic. So, yes, he hits them to all fields like a Miguel or a Manny (not that he's nearly the hitter that those guys are/were). Heck, even in his two home run derby showings, he hit some out to dead center, which is about as far to the right as anybody is going to hit a batting practice throw. He is so strong he doesn't care which way he hits it. 

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Beane obviously has a plan in place.....trade for platoon with Gomes with extra pitching



 

Jerry CrasnickVerified account ‏@jcrasnick

Yes, it's Sam Fuld who's been traded for Tommy Milone. Sorry about that. #athletics #twins

 

[nvalvo]

It's funny - people were complaining about what the Red Sox were planning on doing next year and how they were going to field a competitive team.  So they trade their top pitcher for an All-Star level, 28-year-old OF with power and they complain that the Red Sox didn't get any prospects?
 
I'm not saying that Red Sox are going to be favored for anything next year, but they do have financial flexibility, and if their young players (including X and JBJ) start performing to projections or even exceed them, they could have an exciting team next year.

 
Different people are making the different complaints, I think. 

 

[StuckOnYouk]

A Cespedes-Bradley Jr - Victorino outfield, in terms of both range and OF arms is going to be incredible to watch next year. Let's enjoy it because it's only gonna last one year.
 
But damn will it be fun.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
You need to see him play?  
 
Holy shit. The man has played in the league for a few years, is a known power hitter and is moving from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to an easily reachable LF wall in Fenway. Oh and his 162 game projection in Fenway: 29 HR.  Throw in the fact that Ortiz and Napoli are in some way going to sandwich him in the lineup and he is gonna see a fuckton of pitches to drive.
 
But, yeah, let's cry that his OBP is low coming from a cavernous park with zero lineup protection.

Cespedes has a .293 OBP on the road. It's not all Safeco either; he has a career .381 OPS in Tampa, a .641 OPS in Baltimore and a .668 in Fenway. He's actually nearly 100 points of OPS lower on the road.
 
There are sample size issues but it's not clear that Oakland really hurt him.

 

[johnnywayback]

It's funny - people were complaining about what the Red Sox were planning on doing next year and how they were going to field a competitive team.  So they trade their top pitcher for an All-Star level, 28-year-old OF with power and they complain that the Red Sox didn't get any prospects?
 
I'm not saying that Red Sox are going to be favored for anything next year, but they do have financial flexibility, and if their young players (including X and JBJ) start performing to projections or even exceed them, they could have an exciting team next year.

 
Exactly.  They are going to have to get a starter or two this off-season, no doubt about it.  But I'd rather be in that position than needing to find a power-hitting corner outfielder, because, as has been exhaustively covered in the Stanton thread(s), they are extraordinarily hard to come by, and that will be especially true this year.  Lester, Scherzer, Shields, and Masterson aren't exactly a deep pool of free agents, but it's way deeper than the market for plus-offense outfielders.
 
As a side benefit, if Cespedes proves he can be the RH power hitter we need now and will desperately need when Napoli leaves, it saves us from having to sell the farm for Stanton -- we can just pay Cespedes (less than what Stanton would have required) and save the prospect depth for someone else.  Like a front-line starter in his 20s.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Fixed this for you.  Also, much of the disappointment stems from the fact that it's not clear whether the Sox will even field a competitive team next year.  Cespedes will make another All-Star game next year if he's playing for a team that wins 75 games.  And that does nothing for me.

Oh no, one year? Better we get 5-6 years of some prospect who may contribute 2 years from now? Cespedes is a great start to fielding a competitive team for 2015.

 

[URI]

I guess with the competitive balance pick included this is better return than they got for Peavy, but not by as much as I was expecting.  Given the SABR orientation of the A's front office, it's probably the case that the difference between league average (Peavy) and great (Lester) over 12 starts just isn't all that big, so maybe that isn't a surprise.
 
Here's one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things:
 
Career vs. right handed pitchers (you know, the ones who pitch 70 percent of the games)
 
Player A:  222 / 307 / 415
Player B: 257 / 306 / 459
Player C: 291 / 387 / 428
 
Player B's BABip may rise about 20 points, Player C's BABip may or may not fall about 20 points.
 
Who do you want playing the 70 percent of the games against righthanders in 2015?

 
Which ever one is Jacoby Ellsbury...swoon

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I can't believe some people are complaining about getting a proven All Star caliber OF for 2 months of Lester.

right you are.  I'm happy about this.  and there should be more to come--both now and in the offseason.  This is a good start, though. 

 

[bankshot1]

Such an outside the box deal for both sides.  Have to admire Beane--he sees this year with no NY or Boston superpowers to deal with and only Detroit in the way, so goes and gets a rotation that can beat them.

Yup, who would have thought that using a pennant contender's demand for Lester and expanding the trade, could get a RH-power OF for the Sox.

 

[pedroia'sboys]

Because the internet has no tone and you didn't use emoticons, I don't know what you're saying exactly. If you're saying that all fans care about is winning, there are 22 ball parks across the country that have better attendance this year than the A's who seem to be doing a lot of winning.  Perhaps the Red Sox fans from 2004 only care about winning but I would suggest that many fans (including the 1,000,000 reading this topic right now) really care about baseball, winning being a really big part of that. My point is that to assume that the front office doesn't give a  rat's ass about the fans and that they don't ever consult with the people in marketing is probably not accurate.

The other 22 teams are not the Red Sox, even in this down year they have been drawing. If you think the marketing department had even a 5 percent influence in this trade you're insane. If you put 9 JD Drew personalities out there and they won 95 games it wouldn't make a difference. Again no ones going to the ballpark in September for Cespedes. Maybe I'm wrong, but I highly doubt the team cares about WEEI or negative articles, because in the end winning cures everything. They of course are not the patriots in that dept, but if Cherington was influenced to get a "big name", then that's an abomination. Teams are smarter now a days, you're not getting a Tavarez, Pederaon, or a Seager for a rental.

 

[Dogman]

Cespedes has a .293 OBP on the road. It's not all Safeco either; he has a career .381 OPS in Tampa, a .641 OPS in Baltimore and a .668 in Fenway. He's actually nearly 100 points of OPS lower on the road.
 
There are sample size issues but it's not clear that Oakland really hurt him.

 
Why the hell did you completely ignore the lineup protection line?  Oh, that's right, because then you have nothing to hang your hat on.  

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

 
Fixed this for you.  Also, much of the disappointment stems from the fact that it's not clear whether the Sox will even field a competitive team next year.  Cespedes will make another All-Star game next year if he's playing for a team that wins 75 games.  And that does nothing for me.

 
Well fortunately, the front office has a whole off season to fill in gaps.  There are still a surplus of prospects to deal, and a logjam of pitchers in AAA that will likely get auditions with the ML club. I mean, if they get Josh Bell back, they are making a bet that he will be as good in 2-3 years as Cespedes is now. Why not take the known quantity, even if its for a year and a half?  

 

[Jaylach]

I guess with the competitive balance pick included this is better return than they got for Peavy, but not by as much as I was expecting.  Given the SABR orientation of the A's front office, it's probably the case that the difference between league average (Peavy) and great (Lester) over 12 starts just isn't all that big, so maybe that isn't a surprise.
 
Here's one of those Player A, Player B, Player C things:
 
Career vs. right handed pitchers (you know, the ones who pitch 70 percent of the games)
 
Player A:  222 / 307 / 415
Player B: 257 / 306 / 459
Player C: 291 / 387 / 428
 
Player B's BABip may rise about 20 points, Player C's BABip may or may not fall about 20 points.
 
Who do you want playing the 70 percent of the games against righthanders in 2015?

 
Just jump to the chase and tell us which one is Ellsbury already.

 

[rembrat]

I can't believe some people are complaining about getting a proven All Star caliber OF for 2 months of Lester.

 
So that's the criteria then? Should we be happy fielding Jeter at SS?
 
The Cespedes we are getting is a nice player but not a great one. He ranks 14th out of 20 eligible LF in wOBA and has no other hitting skill besides power. It's not a slam dunk that he will revert back to his rookie campaign just because there is a wall 300ft down to LF, it's also a possibility that the Monster could throw off his already very limit approach.

 

[brandonchristensen]

 
You need to see him play?  
 
Holy shit. The man has played in the league for a few years, is a known power hitter and is moving from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to an easily reachable LF wall in Fenway. Oh and his 162 game projection in Fenway: 29 HR.  Throw in the fact that Ortiz and Napoli are in some way going to sandwich him in the lineup and he is gonna see a fuckton of pitches to drive.
 
But, yeah, let's cry that his OBP is low coming from a cavernous park with zero lineup protection.

I've seen him play off and on when the Sox play them, but I haven't watched him a ton. I'd like to get a better look, and hopefully everyone is right. I'm just looking at stats and some knowledge of his pedigree when he first signed.

 

[redsahx]

I think this point needs clarification. For those who are upset that they dealt Lester, is it because
A) You feel their chances of resigning him are dramatically less now
or
B) You're upset that his Red Sox career might end two months earlier?

The return is a separate issue. I'm pretty sure that if a team existed who was willing to part with a top flight prospect for renting Lester, then that team would have emerged by now and the deal would have been done.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
Why the hell did you completely ignore the lineup protection line?  Oh, that's right, because then you have nothing to hang your hat on.  

Because lineup protection is a myth?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

From a fan's perspective, I hate this.  Especially with Pedroia's offensive decline, Lester has been far and away my favorite player to follow.
 
From a business perspective, it's too soon to tell.  If they somehow get Lester back (pretty low odds I suspect), then it could be quite a deal.

 
I don't think this is the right way to look at it, even though many people are doing it. You can't judge this trade by whether Lester comes back or not. Unless they have a deal worked out in principle that Lester will sign once the season ends, where he ends up this winter is irrelevant in evaluating this trade. It's 2 months of Lester for 1 and 1/3 seasons of Cespedes and a comp round pick. I think that's a good deal whether Lester is back next year or not. And if they do have a deal worked out behind the scenes, we'll never see that confirmed.
 

 
Fixed this for you.  Also, much of the disappointment stems from the fact that it's not clear whether the Sox will even field a competitive team next year.  Cespedes will make another All-Star game next year if he's playing for a team that wins 75 games.  And that does nothing for me.

 
But Cespedes makes it far more likely they will be competitive. You have to expect improvements from Bogaerts and Bradley as young players who are getting settled in. Both are showing flashes of that improvement already. Pedroia is better than he's looked at the plate this year and is a good bet to improve. They have nowhere to go but up at catcher (from the first half at least), and should get more of Victorino on the field next year which will lengthen the lineup and improve the outfield defense a bit. Mookie Betts should see more time at the major league level which helps with depth. Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Marrero and Holt should all be available as infield depth. So adding Cespedes goes a long way toward lengthening the lineup and also improves outfield defense. He's clearly a net gain on a roster that was looking at a lot of likely improvements going into 2015 already.
 
It's going to come down to what they do on the free agent market. A good starting pitcher pick up might be all they need.

 

[Toe Nash]

Oh no, one year? Better we get 5-6 years of some prospect who may contribute 2 years from now? Cespedes is a great start to fielding a competitive team for 2015.

He a 3 WAR guy. He has major strengths but flaws as well. He needs to take a big step forward at age 29 to be more than a decent regular. 
 
It's an improvement over what we got this year and may have been the best deal out there but it's pretty reasonable to be "meh" about it, especially when the emotional connections to Lester are factored in.