Passan reporting Lester/Gomes to the A's for Cespedes

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Count me as relatively unimpressed.  I just don't see one year of Cespedes, especially in a year that the team will struggle mightily to contend anyway, being all that valuable.  He also doesn't actually fit our needs that well in the OF.  It would be a significant mistake IMO to play Cespedes over Nava in LF against RHP, so you're either doing that (which basically makes his acquisition neutral, improving our LF spot against LHPs but degrading it against RHP), playing him part time, or moving him around from LF to RF.  The last option seems like the best plan but then where does that leave Victorino and Betts.  Is Cespedes in RF even an upgrade over those guys once you factor in defense?

 

[RIrooter09]

So if we cannot get a QO for him I would think they try to extend him this offseason.


Also what does this mean for Mookie? Trade?

 
I think it's more likely we try to trade Victorino. 

 

[DJnVa]

So if we cannot get a QO for him I would think they try to extend him this offseason.


Also what does this mean for Mookie? Trade?

 
Uh, RF?

 

[soxhop411]

 
Uh, RF?

We would need to trade victorino though.

 

[redsahx]

 

Count me as relatively unimpressed.  I just don't see one year of Cespedes, especially in a year that the team will struggle mightily to contend anyway, being all that valuable.

I can see people not being excited about Cespedes. I just think it is worth pointing out that he probably represents the best return available to them. When you have the best asset available, and over a half dozen teams were in on it, I have to assume that gave Cherington a pretty good read on the market.  

 

[soxhop411]

 
Cespedes plays every position Mookie could?
 
Good grief.

if Cespedes signs long term both LF and CF will be taken for the foreseeable future. So the only open OF spot would be RF. But we would need to trade or bench Shane.

 

[brandonchristensen]

With the A's having an off day, does Lester start their next game (since he will be pitching on like...6-7 days of rest)?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

We would need to trade victorino though.

 
Or Mookie is a super sub in 2015 and they look to make him a full time right fielder in 2016.

 

[j44thor]

We would need to trade victorino though.

 
Or just wait for him to get hurt which might happen by the time I finish this post.

 

[Drek717]

We would need to trade victorino though.

Why?  Betts is the "deep depth" in AAA to start 2015, his time on the ML roster will be dictated by how well Bradley, Vic, and Cespedes are doing.  He then takes over RF to start 2016 if Bradley is holding down center.
 
Pretty easy transition path, gives Betts ample time to get comfortable playing the OF and develop in AAA, and ensures the big club of not being completely devoid of a worthwhile OF prospect in early 2015 if that turns into an Achilles heel again.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

 
Maybe they figured, "we got lots of prospects....this is a chance to get a major leaguer."

yes.  I hope they do some more of that.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 

I can see people not being excited about Cespedes. I just think it is worth pointing out that he probably represents the best return available to them. When you have the best asset available, and over a half dozen teams were in on it, I have to assume that gave Cherington a pretty good read on the market.  

 
That very well may be true. Or they could just be placing more value on remaining marginally competitive in 2015 than is warranted.  But its probably the case that none of the truly elite prospects were coming our way under any scenario.
 
Theo's trade of Matt Garza last year looks pretty amazing in comparison.  But you need a sucker on the other end of the deal and it seems like maybe we couldn't find one.

 

[dynomite]

It's funny - people were complaining about what the Red Sox were planning on doing next year and how they were going to field a competitive team.  So they trade their top pitcher for an All-Star level, 28-year-old OF with power and they complain that the Red Sox didn't get any prospects?
 
I'm not saying that Red Sox are going to be favored for anything next year, but they do have financial flexibility, and if their young players (including X and JBJ) start performing to projections or even exceed them, they could have an exciting team next year.

It's especially confusing because the Sox have a dearth of in-their-prime major league talent but perhaps the biggest glut of prospects in my lifetime.

Cespedes filled the Sox' legitimate need: a major league RH power bat.

I remain concerned about the top of the 2015 rotation, but that was true whether we traded Lester or not, and we filled another pressing need in the interim.

 

[Moosey]

 
Or Mookie is a super sub in 2015 and they look to make him a full time right fielder in 2016.

 
I would be behind this plan.  Makes sense, Mookie's positional flexibility makes him more of a piece going forward I believe, not less.

 

[DJnVa]

We would need to trade victorino though.

 
 
You don't just carry 3 OFers, plus Mookie can play multiple positions.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's especially confusing because the Sox have a dearth of in-their-prime major league talent but perhaps the biggest glut of prospects in my lifetime.

Cespedes filled the Sox' legitimate need: a major league RH power bat.

I remain concerned about the top of the 2015 rotation, but that was true whether we traded Lester or not, and we filled another pressing need in the interim.

 
That's a very simplistic way of looking at the situation.  Nobody ever really needs power per se.  You just need players that will contribute to the scoring and prevention of runs.  The first problem with Cespedes is that its unclear whether, if played in his natural position of LF, he will actually contribute more to the scoring and prevention of runs than Nava when the other team starts a RHP on the mound.  The second problem is that, whatever he does contribute, we only get that contribution for one season.  So even if you think he fills a legitimate need he only does so in the very short term, during a season that we're not otherwise very well primed to contend anyway.
 
Cespedes might have been the best we could do but its hard to see the acquisition as much more than a very slight improvement for a single year that will likely make the 2015 team marginally more competitive during another otherwise largely down season given the franchise's overall location in the success cycle.

 

[pokey_reese]

 
I am sure that over the years this has been beaten to death here in SoSH, but is it really a total myth?  If you put a quality hitter in front of a guy with a .600 ops, do you think the chances of him seeing a good pitch to hit are higher or lower than if that quality hitter was in front of a guy with an .850 ops?  
 
Big spot in the game, two outs, this quality hitter is up, and the pitcher faces the prospect of pitching to him or the guy after him, and the guy after him either sucks or is terrific, what's happening?
 
I can see how it wouldn't matter in the fifth inning of a 9-3 game in mid April.  And so maybe there aren't that many situations like I described above.  But I gotta believe that in this case, conventional wisdom has *some* merit, no?

I think it was BP who did this for Miguel Cabrera when Fielder left, looking at pitchF/X data for every pitch the years before Fielder left, and as many as they had after.  I believe that they actually found that Cabrera saw MORE fastballs in the zone after fielder left.
 
But there are a lot of different opinions and conclusions, because most examinations are looking at one player's experience.  Here is one that finds the issue is more that it changes the batter's approach, rather than the pitcher's: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20232
 
Here's one that basically says, no, protection isn't a big deal generally, at least for Cano: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21102
 
I would say it should help the OBP if a guy gets a ton more intentional walks because there is no one hitting behind him, but that would have the opposite effect than people think of.
 
Plus, you know, Stanton.  He ruins every conversation about lineup protection.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Looks like a reasonable deal for both sides.  I'm relieved the Sox didn't get the king's ransom in cost-controlled prospects anticipated by some, but I really didn't expect that anyway.  I really thought the Sox would end up resigning Lester.  Maybe they still will.  I'm sure Lester will at least give them the opportunity to match whatever he's offered.

 

[rundugrun]

We would need to trade victorino though.

Based on Vic's health record, Betts might get plenty of time in RF.

 

[Dogman]

A fair response. I admit to being guilty of looking for reasons to doubt Cespedes, given my bummed-outedness at getting to this point. This is also very game-thready, so I didn't think things through.
 
Your voice of reason may be needed in the "Getting to know Cespedes" thread, there is definitely some low information being thrown around there. (And everywhere on the board the last oh, few months).

 
FTR, I'm not thrilled about losing Lester either.  I'm also not driving on the "he is gonna hit like Manny train".  I'm just thinking in context of what he did do in 2012 when he had lineup protection and taking a positive position on a down day for the team I root for.
 
The team received a RH power bat, a draft pick and will have the opportunity to sign Lester in the offseason. I can't really ask for more given the current outlook that the Red Sox may very well have gotten zero for him when he could have potentially walked.

 

[Devizier]

If the Red Sox weren't going to extend Lester, this is about as good a return as I could have hoped for. Cespedes is the kind of player you hope prospects turn out to be, and his contract is very team friendly. Given how the Sox have fared this year, I don't think anyone can argue that they have a problem with surplus outfielders.

 

[bosoxsue]

From my  friend out in Oakland, FWIW,
 
"You're gonna like him. He can hit for power in all fields (the shift is useless). Those missing the days of Dewey will see he's got a rifle for an arm. One caveat: he is fragile and will go on the DL occasionally."

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Sympathy for a guy who just went from a World Series contender to a last place team.
 
Baseball...

 

[Rudy's Curve]

 
Yep, a myth.  
 
In 2012 when Josh Reddick was hitting behind him (32 HR, .463 slg), Cepedes' OBP was .356.  
 
It ain't no myth, Flash.

 
In 2014 with Brandon Moss hitting behind him (~35 HR pace, .503 SLG), Cespedes' OBP is .303. In 2013 with a mix of Moss (30 HR, .522 SLG) and Josh Donaldson (24 HR, .499 SLG) hitting behind him, Cespedes' OBP was .294.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
That's a very simplistic way of looking at the situation.  Nobody ever really needs power per se.  You just need players that will contribute to the scoring and prevention of runs.  The first problem with Cespedes is that its unclear whether, if played in his natural position of LF, he will actually contribute more to the scoring and prevention of runs than Nava when the other team starts a RHP on the mound.  The second problem is that, whatever he does contribute, we only get that contribution for one season.  So even if you think he fills a legitimate need he only does so in the very short term, during a season that we're not otherwise very well primed to contend anyway.
 
Cespedes might have been the best we could do but its hard to see the acquisition as much more than a very slight improvement for a single year that will likely make the 2015 team marginally more competitive during another otherwise largely down season given the franchise's overall location in the success cycle.

 
The problem with your analysis is that it ignores that by putting Nava on the bench, they are getting back to that deep depth they coveted in 2013. The 2015 outfield is incredibly deep now, especially if you consider Betts as someone who can cover an outfield position as well, whether he's in Pawtucket or playing the super sub in Boston. Adding Cespedes is potentially a huge improvement for the team over all.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I guess what the Sox have bought themselves is 3-4 wins for the cost of about 1.75 wins for 2015.  That's not too bad.  They also get to give the guy a tryout for 18 months to see how he fits the club and the park, with the possibility of maybe extending him at a favorable price.   Do I wish Lester brought more?  Of course.  But getting nothing for him would have been worse.  The fact that he's gone to a team that cannot sign him, making the exclusive negotiation period worthless, also is good, because it puts the Sox in no worse position for potentially signing him as a FA than if they hadn't moved him.
 
Papi, Cespedes, Napoli is a nice core to start the year with, along with the younger players who did some growing up this year, such as it was.

 

[LesterFan]

This is funny.
 
Joon Lee ‏@iamjoonlee
Chris Archer and David Price probably won’t be happy that the #RedSox just acquired this guy.
https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Bt4RBZrCQAIV3ys.mp4

 

[CaskNFappin]

I love this deal. If you're looking for a middle-of-the-order guy, it's much more palatable extending Cespedes than pillaging the farm for a trade, or hoping a legit threat reaches FA. He's no Stanton, but he takes the sting out if we can't get him. I wouldn't mind an OF with him and another Cuban comrade, which truly frees us to include JBJ or Betts in a deal for front-line pitching. If it was the years Boston sneezed at for Lester, and the controlled years that makes Hamels so expensive, I think Cliff Lee could be the best case scenario - maybe only costing 2 top 10 guys. If you can also flip Lackey and Miller for a Danny Hutzlen or James Taillontype, I think you're really cooking with gas in 2015

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Is it possible that there is an agreement already in place between Cespedes and the Red Sox on an extension?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
The problem with your analysis is that it ignores that by putting Nava on the bench, they are getting back to that deep depth they coveted in 2013. The 2015 outfield is incredibly deep now, especially if you consider Betts as someone who can cover an outfield position as well, whether he's in Pawtucket or playing the super sub in Boston. Adding Cespedes is potentially a huge improvement for the team over all.

 
Added depth is nice but a "huge improvement" is massive hyperbole.  They basically go from four decent-but-not-great OF options (JBJ/Nava/Vic/Betts) to five, adding a guy whose primary value over other options will be his ability to hit well against LHP.  There's value there but we're talking marginal improvements, not huge ones.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is it possible that there is an agreement already in place between Cespedes and the Red Sox on an extension?

 
In a matter of a couple hours?  Extremely doubtful.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

So is it definitively correct that Cespedes cannot be offered arbitration, and he cannot be given a qualifying offer (meaning no draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere)?

 

[Puffy]

 
Added depth is nice but a "huge improvement" is massive hyperbole.  They basically go from four decent-but-not-great OF options (JBJ/Nava/Vic/Betts) to five, adding a guy whose primary value over other options will be his ability to hit well against LHP.  There's value there but we're talking marginal improvements, not huge ones.

 
Cespedes is like a rich man's Gomes.

 

[rodderick]

 
Added depth is nice but a "huge improvement" is massive hyperbole.  They basically go from four decent-but-not-great OF (JBJ/Nava/Vic/Betts) to five, adding a guy whose primary value over other options will be his ability to play hit against LHP.

 
In both 2014 and in his career Cespedes has a .765 OPS against RHP, and this year his BA and SLG are both better against RHP than against LHP. He's more dangerous versus LHP, sure, but you're kind of making him sound like a platoon player, and that isn't the case.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
Cespedes is like a rich man's Gomes.

 
Yeah, exactly.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Added depth is nice but a "huge improvement" is massive hyperbole.  They basically go from four decent-but-not-great OF (JBJ/Nava/Vic/Betts) to five, adding a guy whose primary value over other options will be his ability to play hit against LHP.

 
You are focusing too narrowly on the one player he is displacing. Adding that depth means we don't spend significant time dealing with a severe downgrade in the outfield after an injury and Cespedes lengthens the lineup considerably. His addition has a wide reaching effect on this team and that's before we consider the possibility that he'll improve the defense in left field considerably. He has much better range than Nava and their arms aren't even comparable. He'll probably have a few ridiculous gaffes while getting used to the Monster, but he's going to be a significant upgrade defensively over Nava and Gomes.
 
Offensively, you are overstating his splits. He has a 115 wRC+ against lefties and a 113 against righties this year. Over his career he is at 132 (vs LHP) and 111 (vs RHP). He's not a bad hitter against right handed pitchers.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
In both 2014 and in his career Cespedes has a .765 OPS against RHP, and this year his BA and SLG are both better against RHP than against LHP. He's more dangerous versus LHP, sure, but you're kind of making him sound like a platoon player, and that isn't the case.

 
He's not a platoon player.  But he's not necessarily a guy you want starting in LF instead of Nava against RHP either.

 

[Joshv02]

So is it definitively correct that Cespedes cannot be offered arbitration, and he cannot be given a qualifying offer (meaning no draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere)?

Its been reported everywhere that he cannot be offered arbitration (and was reported that way at the time of the signing), which means he'll be non-tendered.  As I read the CBA, only players with more than 6 years of service time can be made a qualifying offer (for those who read at home, it is the interplay of XX(B)(3) and XX(B)(1)), but it is not 100% clear.  Speier says he has a Red Sox source that indicates that the Sox agree.

 

[Puffy]

So is it definitively correct that Cespedes cannot be offered arbitration, and he cannot be given a qualifying offer (meaning no draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere)?

 
Yes, it's been widely confirmed that there will be no QO or compensation for Cespedes. He must be a free agent after 2015.

 

[Puffy]

 
He's not a platoon player.  But he's not necessarily a guy you want starting in LF instead of Nava against RHP either.

 
If he can play RF, we should shift him back and forth and settle into some kind of Nava/Victorino platoon. Or some similar rotation. This might be a more realistic expectation for Victorino in 2015 anyway. He can play less, try to stay healthy, and backup JBJ in CF when necessary.

 

[rodderick]

 
He's not a platoon player.  But he's not necessarily a guy you want starting in LF instead of Nava against RHP either.

 
Which Nava? If you're talking 2013 Nava, I'm not sure there are five players in baseball who would start over him against RHP. 2014 Nava has a worse OPS against righties than Cespedes does.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
You are focusing too narrowly on the one player he is displacing. Adding that depth means we don't spend significant time dealing with a severe downgrade in the outfield after an injury and Cespedes lengthens the lineup considerably. His addition has a wide reaching effect on this team and that's before we consider the possibility that he'll improve the defense in left field considerably. He has much better range than Nava and their arms aren't even comparable. He'll probably have a few ridiculous gaffes while getting used to the Monster, but he's going to be a significant upgrade defensively over Nava and Gomes.
 
Offensively, you are overstating his splits. He has a 115 wRC+ against lefties and a 113 against righties this year. Over his career he is at 132 (vs LHP) and 111 (vs RHP). He's not a bad hitter against right handed pitchers.

 
Sure, he's got some skills and will increase our depth and there's some value to that.  But at the end of the day he's a decent-but-not-great player who will improve our team marginally for one season.  If you want to pretend that's a "huge improvement" and that Cherington has achieved some kind of coup with this deal, then be my guest. 

 

[joe dokes]

 
Added depth is nice but a "huge improvement" is massive hyperbole.  They basically go from four decent-but-not-great OF options (JBJ/Nava/Vic/Betts) to five, adding a guy whose primary value over other options will be his ability to hit well against LHP.  There's value there but we're talking marginal improvements, not huge ones.

 
The only player in this deal whose primary value is the ability to hit LHPs is Gomes.
Putting aside the comp between Nava and Cespedes for RH HR power -- something the Sox lack and which is in generally short supply -- how do you include Betts in that scenario.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I can't see how they could have done much better. Knowing the quirky Cespedes contract, I am guessing the Sox would have been all-in for signing him after next season anyway. This gives them a season to figure out what the number should be and whether or not he's a fit here.

Carp or Nava have to be gone soon, no?

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Wow. Now Cespedes is a rich mans Gomes and we need to figure out how to get Nava playing time. This place has lost all grip on reality. Put the stat books and the SABR guides down. Crack a beer, poor a cocktail and relax.

 

[Shamus74]

Tom Caron tweeted:
 
"Source w/ #RedSox told me team wanted to deal Lester to "team we didn't think could re-sign him." Said Sox will make offer this off-season."

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
The only player in this deal whose primary value is the ability to hit LHPs is Gomes.
Putting aside the comp between Nava and Cespedes for RH HR power -- something the Sox lack and which is in generally short supply -- how do you include Betts in that scenario.

 
Admittedly, that was not artfully said and hyperbolic.
 
Irregardless, I'll definitely double down on the overall assessment that Cespedes represents a one year marginal improvement, not a "huge" one as others are claiming. 

 

[Plympton91]

 
Why the hell did you completely ignore the lineup protection line?  Oh, that's right, because then you have nothing to hang your hat on.  

 
Oakland is leading the league in runs scored; last year they were 4th.  He had plenty of protection.  He's a hacker with power.  A marginal improvement at best over Daniel Nava in that he doesn't need to be platooned and has a good arm.  Somebody else posted it earlier; the 2013 platoon of Gomes and Nava put up a WAR of 3.0; Cespedes, if he's healthy, will put up a WAR of 2.5 to 3.0.   Ho hum.  Getting production out of LF was not going to be a problem for 2015.  I'd be much happier about this trade if he could play CF.  That would be a big improvement in offensive production.

 

[DJnVa]

From the A's perspective:  http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/7/31/5955307/yoenis-cespedes-trade-jon-lester-oakland-athletics-red-sox

Yoenis Cespedes trade is a punch in the stomach for A's fans
 
Yoenis Cespedes, fan favorite, derby slayer, inspirer of homemade signs, is on that team now, the one with the boisterous, obnoxious fans who scurry out from cracks in the sidewalk when they come into town. There's the business of what came back (rotation-leading ace, playoff tested, can match up with any pitcher in baseball), but until he makes a start or five, that's secondary. Until then, this trade is a week-long excuse to say, "They traded who?"
 

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Oakland is leading the league in runs scored; last year they were 4th.  He had plenty of protection.  He's a hacker with power.  A marginal improvement at best over Daniel Nava in that he doesn't need to be platooned and has a good arm.  Somebody else posted it earlier; the 2013 platoon of Gomes and Nava put up a WAR of 3.0; Cespedes, if he's healthy, will put up a WAR of 2.5 to 3.0.   Ho hum.  Getting production out of LF was not going to be a problem for 2015.  I'd be much happier about this trade if he could play CF.  That would be a big improvement in offensive production.

Cespedes has played plenty of CF. he was the other CFer for the A's, besides the oft-injured Crisp, before  they got Craig Gentry. He's passable in center.