I'd note that we also had all those multi-inning relievers this year and it wasn't exactly a fix when we had starter problems.
Well the multi-inning relievers in 2024 I mean include Whitlock and possibly Houck, who were themselves injured starters last year. There's also Schreiber, who’s more of a one-inning guy but missed about 2 1/2 months.
But in a repeat scenario of widespread injuries across the pitching staff, then we probably won’t be in contention anyway, and wouldn't need an expiring free agent like Pivetta soaking up innings in August and September.
Here’s an exercise. Sox pitchers threw 1430 innings last year. Let's allocate those innings from what we have. Here’s how Steamer projects the staff in 2024 by IP, minus the relevant variables (Pivetta and another starter TBA), and assuming a Jansen trade (for someone who doesn’t contribute to this list).
Giolito - 181
Bello - 169
Crawford - 145
Houck - 80 (he’s projected for 142 as a starter, but let’s say he’s a full-time reliever)
Winckowski - 67
Whitlock - 68
Schreiber - 64
Martin - 66
Bernardino - 58
Murphy - 63
Slaten - 53
Campbell - 48
Total: 1062
That group throws 1062 innings, so we need 368 innings left to hit the 1430 mark. Normal caveats apply about injuries, but we’ll get to that.
Like everyone, I think we’re going to acquire another starter, so let’s conservatively plug in 150 for that guy. It could be much more, but 150 brings us down to roughly 220.
Now, the back of the 40-man. There, we’ve got Walter, Weiss, Weissart, Criswell, Castillo, Mata, Llovera, Kelly and Jacques. All are bound to soak up some innings, or step in for someone hurt. You don’t want them pitching
too many innings but they’re all projected in the 4.30-4.75 ERA range, all (except Mata and Llovera) have options, and every team’s got ‘em. They’re not gonna hurt you too badly.
So we’re at 220 left to fill, allocating zero to those guys but with the understanding that they’ll throw some unknown number of innings. (Barraclaugh, Bleier, Dermody, Faria, Garza, Kelly, Lamet, Littell, Llovera, Robertson, Joely Rodriguez, Scott, Sherriff, Walter and Weiss threw 194 last year.)
Here, we may opt replace Jansen with a guy like Stephenson or Hicks, who would conservatively throw about 50 IP. That would take us down to 170. I’d love that kind of move, but maybe we anoint Martin as the closer.
So, 220 innings, assuming the new guy throws only 150, assuming Houck throws only 80, assuming we don't sign a Jansen replacement and we don't allocate any to the Walter-Weiss flotsam. That factors things down to a decision between this:
A) 160 innings of 1/$8M Pivetta at 4.39 ERA + 60 innings of the Walter-Weiss crew
or
B) 140 innings of 1/$12 Paxton (probably 2/$24M) + 80 innings from the Walter-Weiss crew, + whatever return we get for Pivetta
Of course, there will be injuries. But we’ve also got Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski and Criswell all stretched out as starters to step in.
A lot depends on what that Pivetta return is, but in almost every case, I choose side B. We also need a starter with more upside than Pivetta. I think we’ll get one, perhaps in a trade with a package that includes Pivetta himself.