This.
When proposing trades it's much more than matching up WAR. People really need to explain how the proposed trade would benefit all of the teams involved. It's not up to everyone else to do the research.
Moves I'd Make
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
- Start date
When proposing trades it's much more than matching up WAR. People really need to explain how the proposed trade would benefit all of the teams involved. It's not up to everyone else to do the research.
Why does Miami?
They just got into the WC last year. They want to immediately upgrade their offense, but they're not going to maybe upgrade it in the future for two of their five starting pitchers today.
edit - misread what you wrote re Jansen.
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My unexplained premise was that the weak AL Central means that most of that division (MIN, CLE, KC, DET) is both on a budget and at least plausibly contending. That makes them seem like candidates to acquire a heavily subsidized name brand closer to deepen their pen. They can also use as many hitting prospects as possible, and seem to grow young pitchers on trees. Maybe we need to send another prospect to Cleveland, or one of the outfielders instead of Yorke.
Miami makes the deal because they get a blue chip SS prospect in Mayer, a blue chip pitching prospect (Espino is a top 100 guy, but presently injured), a very young, very high-ceiling prospect in Bleis, and Pivetta to eat innings in the short term. That’s a *haul,* even for two good pitchers.
Miami makes the deal because they get a blue chip SS prospect in Mayer, a blue chip pitching prospect (Espino is a top 100 guy, but presently injured), a very young, very high-ceiling prospect in Bleis, and Pivetta to eat innings in the short term. That’s a *haul,* even for two good pitchers.
But is it a haul for two good, young, cost controlled arms who are starting to prove themselves at the major league level? Maybe they get the Sox or someone to slightly overpay for one, but if they move both the better play might be to different teams. I wonder how much just one year of innings eating by Pivetta may actually be worth to them.
Cleveland does seem like a reasonable trade partner. They are slated to start Kwan, Straw and Laureano in the OF so you would think one of Abreu/Rafaela/Duran would be of interest especially Abreu in RF. I wonder about Eli Morgan or Xzavion Curry as options to come back on the premise that we would try to make them a starter in the short to mid term.
Just eyeballing this and it seems like Cleveland is getting the shaft here. I don't know why they'd trade a highly regarded prospect for a pretty good closer and an MI prospect who has lost some of his luster recently.
Espino has been hurt a bunch if memory serves, so not such a great prospect. Bigger issue is why would they want Jansen when they have one of MLB's best closers at a fraction of the price?
Because when posters use the Trade Simulator or other such equivalency methods for coming up with deal suggestions, they're thinking only about what would be the best benefit to the Red Sox -- and, if challenged, they respond with some surface-level justifications for claiming their proposal works for all sides.
That's why such tools are basically nonsense. This isn't exchanging money, where if you give me $50 and I give you a $20, a $10, three $5s and five $1s, it's an even deal. The players with the most value are likely to remain that way -- especially if you staple a bunch of flotsam together just so the trade value of 50 equals 50.
This is a fair criticism, but I settled on Espino as a top pitching prospect in the AL Central who might possibly be attainable (because of the injuries) on a team with which we could conceivably match up. Leiter, whom we were just discussing, could be another.
Since today is the day to talk Marlins trades it seems, here are two I'd like to see the Sox pursue. Listed in (strong) order of preference.
Miami gets Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, Miguel Bleis and Josh Winckowski (BTV gives this a 109 value).
Boston gets Jesus Luzardo, takes on AGarcia.
Why do the Marlins do this?
1) It's a massive overpay in terms of value - which I think the Red Sox will need to massively overpay in terms of value if they want a young cost controlled starter since they don't have pitching prospects of any consequence to give up. For what it's worth, BTV rejects the trade (and the Red Sox are giving up, according to BTV, 3x the value).
2) As @Rovin Romine mentioned, they were a WC team last year, however Alcantara is out this year with TJS and they have a desperate need for offense. Duran becomes pretty quickly one of their best offensive players and should be at least a capable LF moving off center (I'd assume). They also were looking for BP help last year (and I'm sure would be again) and Wicnkowski gives them someone in there for cheap with some upside. They also get a top 15 prospect in baseball.
3) It also leaves them with a still pretty good rotation of Perez, Garrett, Cabrera, Pivetta and Max Meyer coming back off TJS. Pivetta helps them bridge the gap to Alcantara returning next year.
4) They get out from the rest of the Garcia deal, and the Marlins are nothing if not cheap, so I have to assume this holds some appeal to them.
Why does Boston do this?
Jesus Luzardo.
As an aside, I don't necessarily think the Marlins would even go for this, but I think the ostensible value is so high, they'd at least consider it. Assuming they aren't willing to take a deal like this (and Seattle isn't for Gilbert and Chi aren't for Cease) then I'd pivot to:
Miami gets Wilyer Abreu, Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and $10m.
Boston gets Max Meyer
Why do the Marlins do this?
1) Again, massive overpay, and the deal is rejected (Boston is giving up 2x the value relative to BTV).
2) The Marlins still need offense, and Abreu is a good fit for them as he is under control for the next 6 seasons, and should be able to fit into a corner OF spot for them.
3) Gives the Fish a rotation of Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Pivetta and Cabrera, which is still pretty darn good, and still bridges the gap for them to Alcantara coming back.
4) Allows them to have a pretty good bullpen to go with it, with in Jansen, Scott, Martin and they get to do it relatively cheaply because they're the Marlins.
Why does Boston do this?
Meyer (pre TJS) was one of the top pitching prospects in the game and on the cusp of reaching the majors (got hurt in his 2nd game). He would easily be the best pitching prospect in Boston and it wouldn't be close. The Sox are two top half of the rotation starters from being a playoff contender, but if they don't get two top half of the rotation starters, they're probably going to win about 75 games. Based on the Red Sox having a ton of young players and prospects at middle infield and OF positions, the pitching prospects stink.
Meyer should much more valuable to the 2026+ Red Sox than Abreu; Pivetta, Jansen and Martin would be gone after next year anyway.
Miami gets Marcelo Mayer, Jarren Duran, Miguel Bleis and Josh Winckowski (BTV gives this a 109 value).
Boston gets Jesus Luzardo, takes on AGarcia.
Why do the Marlins do this?
1) It's a massive overpay in terms of value - which I think the Red Sox will need to massively overpay in terms of value if they want a young cost controlled starter since they don't have pitching prospects of any consequence to give up. For what it's worth, BTV rejects the trade (and the Red Sox are giving up, according to BTV, 3x the value).
2) As @Rovin Romine mentioned, they were a WC team last year, however Alcantara is out this year with TJS and they have a desperate need for offense. Duran becomes pretty quickly one of their best offensive players and should be at least a capable LF moving off center (I'd assume). They also were looking for BP help last year (and I'm sure would be again) and Wicnkowski gives them someone in there for cheap with some upside. They also get a top 15 prospect in baseball.
3) It also leaves them with a still pretty good rotation of Perez, Garrett, Cabrera, Pivetta and Max Meyer coming back off TJS. Pivetta helps them bridge the gap to Alcantara returning next year.
4) They get out from the rest of the Garcia deal, and the Marlins are nothing if not cheap, so I have to assume this holds some appeal to them.
Why does Boston do this?
Jesus Luzardo.
As an aside, I don't necessarily think the Marlins would even go for this, but I think the ostensible value is so high, they'd at least consider it. Assuming they aren't willing to take a deal like this (and Seattle isn't for Gilbert and Chi aren't for Cease) then I'd pivot to:
Miami gets Wilyer Abreu, Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and $10m.
Boston gets Max Meyer
Why do the Marlins do this?
1) Again, massive overpay, and the deal is rejected (Boston is giving up 2x the value relative to BTV).
2) The Marlins still need offense, and Abreu is a good fit for them as he is under control for the next 6 seasons, and should be able to fit into a corner OF spot for them.
3) Gives the Fish a rotation of Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Pivetta and Cabrera, which is still pretty darn good, and still bridges the gap for them to Alcantara coming back.
4) Allows them to have a pretty good bullpen to go with it, with in Jansen, Scott, Martin and they get to do it relatively cheaply because they're the Marlins.
Why does Boston do this?
Meyer (pre TJS) was one of the top pitching prospects in the game and on the cusp of reaching the majors (got hurt in his 2nd game). He would easily be the best pitching prospect in Boston and it wouldn't be close. The Sox are two top half of the rotation starters from being a playoff contender, but if they don't get two top half of the rotation starters, they're probably going to win about 75 games. Based on the Red Sox having a ton of young players and prospects at middle infield and OF positions, the pitching prospects stink.
Meyer should much more valuable to the 2026+ Red Sox than Abreu; Pivetta, Jansen and Martin would be gone after next year anyway.
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Fair. But counter point - Miami is giving up someone that was at worst a top 20 pitcher in baseball last year and is still very young (10th in bWAR; 17th in fWAR) for two prospect centerpieces with shoulder injuries that haven't shown an ability to handle AA ball yet and an OF that has some health concerns of his own.
I have thought about getting a starting pitching prospect a lot. I think a prospect swap might be the way to go. The first call you make is to the Giants for Kyle Harrison.
When you start diving in though, there is just a complete dearth of starting pitching prospects around baseball. It's spooky.
Dylan Cease, to me, is the most overrated guy on the trade market. Luzardo is a comfortable second. I would not trade Anthony, Mayer, Teel or Bleis for them.
The targets I like now are Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo in Seattle, Trevor Rogers in Miami, Tyler Anderson (salary dump) and Griffin Canning in LAA, Dustin May in LAD, and Bieber.
I'm stilli thinking about these parameters for a three-team trade, playing off Seattle's reported interest in trading for Josh Naylor:
BOS gets: Shane Bieber, Ty France and Anthony DeSclafani
CLE gets: Ceddanne Rafaela, Cade Marlowe
SEA gets: Josh Naylor, Bobby Dalbec
Boston gets a former ace / 28-year-old reclamation project in Bieber, two years of a Justin Turner-type ten years younger, and one year of an expensive Tony Disco, who Andrew Bailey knows well from rebuilding him in San Francisco. They add about $31.2 million in salary, which they can do.
Cleveland turns one year of a $12 million Bieber into an elite defensive center fielder with an interesting bat who can take over for Myles Straw as soon as this year, plus a strong-side platoon bat to DH and pair with Laureano. (The M’s have a surplus of these on the 40 in Marlowe, Canzone, and DeLoach).
Seattle upgrades their first base offense and defense and trims $19.2 million in 2023 salary. Maybe they use it toward Blake Snell.
The targets I like now are Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo in Seattle, Trevor Rogers in Miami, Tyler Anderson (salary dump) and Griffin Canning in LAA, Dustin May in LAD, and Bieber.
I'm stilli thinking about these parameters for a three-team trade, playing off Seattle's reported interest in trading for Josh Naylor:
BOS gets: Shane Bieber, Ty France and Anthony DeSclafani
CLE gets: Ceddanne Rafaela, Cade Marlowe
SEA gets: Josh Naylor, Bobby Dalbec
Boston gets a former ace / 28-year-old reclamation project in Bieber, two years of a Justin Turner-type ten years younger, and one year of an expensive Tony Disco, who Andrew Bailey knows well from rebuilding him in San Francisco. They add about $31.2 million in salary, which they can do.
Cleveland turns one year of a $12 million Bieber into an elite defensive center fielder with an interesting bat who can take over for Myles Straw as soon as this year, plus a strong-side platoon bat to DH and pair with Laureano. (The M’s have a surplus of these on the 40 in Marlowe, Canzone, and DeLoach).
Seattle upgrades their first base offense and defense and trims $19.2 million in 2023 salary. Maybe they use it toward Blake Snell.
I don't see any reason for the Red Sox as composed to lose a QO pick/IFA money to sign an expensive closer for too many years.
The simulator ls are good to spur discussion but your point is great. Equals most times doesn’t really equal.
I also feel similar when people talk about excess value early in contracts and $ per WAR.
Robert Stephenson is considerably better than Hader, in my book, and should cost much, much less. Swap those guys and this kind of thing makes sense.
Stephenson’s rank in these 2023 stat categories (min. 40 IP):
O-swing: 1st of 410
Z-contact: 5th …
Contact rate: 1st …
First pitch strike: 28th …
K%: 3rd …
K%-BB%: 2nd …
xFIP: 11th … (2.84)
In no way, shape or form am I against the idea of trading Jansen, Martin or both and signing anyone on a one year deal to replace them because as things stand today for what the team looks like in 2024, I kind of think that is what needs to happen, however I've got to ask.
You honestly think that:
A 30 year old relief pitcher with a career line of a 4.64 ERA/4.59FIP/1.337whip/2.55 k/bb ratio is "considerably better" than...
A 29 year old relief pitcher with a career line of a 2.50ERA/2.73FIP/0.944whip/4.13 k/bb ratio.
(I'm not saying signing Hader makes any sense for Boston, and I'm not really arguing that if it was directly tied to a move of Jansen or Martin to buy a prospect and then signing Stephenson doesn't, but you honestly think Stephenson is "considerably better" because of one season at age 30?)
Of course Stephenson is cheaper. Just like Seth Lugo was a lot cheaper than Aaron Nola and Adam Duvall was a lot cheaper than Aaron Judge.
I'm starting to talk myself into Jorge Soler (.341 OBP, 36 HR last year) on a short deal (2yr/26m) and am resigned to the fact they aren't paying up for Snell or Montgomery. Instead go the short term route to fill out the rotation, preferably with a LHP (Paxton or Ryu), not ideal but I'd rather keep the prospects at this point. Trade Kenley for whatever you can get, even eating some money for a better prospect. Make Houck the closer. I see no need for Refsnyder anymore.
Duran CF
Grissom 2b
Devers 3b
Soler DH
Casas 1b
Story SS
Yoshida LF
Wong C
Abreu/O'Neil RF
Mcguire C
Rafaela SU (should play somewhere 5 times a week and hit at bottom of order)
Abreu/O'Neil OF
Dalbec CI
Giolito
Bello
Paxton/Ryu
Crawford
Pivetta
Houck Closer
Martin
Whitlock
Bernadino (L)
Winckowski
Campbell
Schreiber
Murphy (L)
Go the route of the Braves, Phillies, D-Backs of the last few years and just try to keep above .500 for the first half. Hope some things break right, Bailey and Breslow are pitching whisperers, Cora pushes most of the right buttons, the clubhouse gels a bit better w/ no Dugie and his antics and Sale and his injuires, stay relatively healthy and see where you are in July. Plenty of money to buy if you are in it, and I'm sure Bres will be more aggressive than Chaim was. If the wheels fall off, there are pieces to sell, we've kept our chips and hopefully they've developed accordingly.
Duran CF
Grissom 2b
Devers 3b
Soler DH
Casas 1b
Story SS
Yoshida LF
Wong C
Abreu/O'Neil RF
Mcguire C
Rafaela SU (should play somewhere 5 times a week and hit at bottom of order)
Abreu/O'Neil OF
Dalbec CI
Giolito
Bello
Paxton/Ryu
Crawford
Pivetta
Houck Closer
Martin
Whitlock
Bernadino (L)
Winckowski
Campbell
Schreiber
Murphy (L)
Go the route of the Braves, Phillies, D-Backs of the last few years and just try to keep above .500 for the first half. Hope some things break right, Bailey and Breslow are pitching whisperers, Cora pushes most of the right buttons, the clubhouse gels a bit better w/ no Dugie and his antics and Sale and his injuires, stay relatively healthy and see where you are in July. Plenty of money to buy if you are in it, and I'm sure Bres will be more aggressive than Chaim was. If the wheels fall off, there are pieces to sell, we've kept our chips and hopefully they've developed accordingly.
What kind of starter can they get for one or both of those aged and expensive relievers?
No. He's not considerably better, but I do think Stephenson is better at this point and I'd certainly rather have him given the cost in money and draft picks.
Hader is a great pitcher. He walks a lot of guys, not really my thing for a closer, but we got away with it with Barnes and Kimberly. He's been tied to the Rangers a bunch, and reportedly wants to break Edwin Diaz's record contract. He's also, in my eyes, not an option for the Red Sox because of some old racist and homophobic tweets dug up awhile back from when he was 17 (which he apologized for, in an obviously media-coached sort of way).
Broadly speaking though, I don't think career stats are especially predictive. Major leaguers go through swing changes and pitch arsenal tweaks pretty often, and we never know who's playing hurt when. Hader's looks like kind of a scary profile to me.
I think they're going to have to overpay by a significant margin in any top of the rotation type starting pitcher trade. Even if they are not the centerpiece of the deal, teams are almost always looking to get some cost-controlled pitching in return.
The Sale deal worked because not only did you give up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (Moncada), you were able to throw in a high-ceiling top 100 pitcher (Michael Kopech). Same with the Beckett deal (Hanley as the headliner + Anibal Sanchez was a top 100 pitching prospect).
In more recent deals, Toronto built a trade for Jose Berrios around a top 20 position player prospect in Austin Martin, but they also had a top 100 pitching prospect to add in Simeone Woods-Richardson. The Blake Snell trade was headlined by a top 20 pitching prospect in Luis Patino.
Luis Castillo was a rare position player prospect heavy deal. 1.5 years of Castillo cost Seattle SS Noelvi Marte (No. 18 in MLB) + SS/2B Edwin Arroyo (recently drafted teenager to begin the year, but broke out during the season in Seattle and was ranked No. 44 by the end of the year). They still had to include a pitcher, who while not a top 100 guy, was in their top 10 prospects in RHP Levi Stoudt + another relief prospect.
A somewhat comparable Red Sox package with the current system is:
- Marcelo Mayer = Noelvi Marte (top organizational prospect and top 20 prospect in baseball)
- Roman Anthony = Edwin Arroyo (breakout top 50 prospect, high ceiling teenage bat)
- Wikelman Gonzalez = Levi Stoudt (a top 10 organizational pitcher in AA)
- Christopher Troye = Andrew Moore (older, high K% relief prospect outside the team's top 30)
Not a perfect comparison because Roman Anthony is worth more than Edwin Arroyo was now. Same age, both 2nd round picks, but Anthony had his breakout across three minor league levels and reached AA. I suppose the better comparison would be "Miguel Bleis if he didn't hurt his shoulder and didn't lose a season." But still that's just 1.5 years of Castillo.
The Sale deal worked because not only did you give up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (Moncada), you were able to throw in a high-ceiling top 100 pitcher (Michael Kopech). Same with the Beckett deal (Hanley as the headliner + Anibal Sanchez was a top 100 pitching prospect).
In more recent deals, Toronto built a trade for Jose Berrios around a top 20 position player prospect in Austin Martin, but they also had a top 100 pitching prospect to add in Simeone Woods-Richardson. The Blake Snell trade was headlined by a top 20 pitching prospect in Luis Patino.
Luis Castillo was a rare position player prospect heavy deal. 1.5 years of Castillo cost Seattle SS Noelvi Marte (No. 18 in MLB) + SS/2B Edwin Arroyo (recently drafted teenager to begin the year, but broke out during the season in Seattle and was ranked No. 44 by the end of the year). They still had to include a pitcher, who while not a top 100 guy, was in their top 10 prospects in RHP Levi Stoudt + another relief prospect.
A somewhat comparable Red Sox package with the current system is:
- Marcelo Mayer = Noelvi Marte (top organizational prospect and top 20 prospect in baseball)
- Roman Anthony = Edwin Arroyo (breakout top 50 prospect, high ceiling teenage bat)
- Wikelman Gonzalez = Levi Stoudt (a top 10 organizational pitcher in AA)
- Christopher Troye = Andrew Moore (older, high K% relief prospect outside the team's top 30)
Not a perfect comparison because Roman Anthony is worth more than Edwin Arroyo was now. Same age, both 2nd round picks, but Anthony had his breakout across three minor league levels and reached AA. I suppose the better comparison would be "Miguel Bleis if he didn't hurt his shoulder and didn't lose a season." But still that's just 1.5 years of Castillo.
So… the issue with this team is that we are extremely “ordinary” but unfortunately we are stuck with a relatively high payroll for mediocrity.
Thanks to Bloom and company we are stuck with an untradable Devers contract. I love Raffi but jeez, $300 million for a guy who can’t run or field his position is such a bad overpay. He is historically bad at 3b. Given that we don’t want $300 million tied up in a DH (plus, Yoshida) I do wonder if our only recourse is to give serious thought to trading Casas for pitching and moving Raffi to 1B. I’m not sure who replacement 3b could be, but it’s likely a 2 year transition out this mess. Moving Raffi can help our pitching as well.
I think we are also stuck with Yoshida at LF/DH so I think we’ll have to let that run out (again, I like Masa, but another poor decision to sign him at that contract given the D)… the rest if the OF is a million questions. Just not really digging it but maybe there something there.
Depending on how Grissom pans out at 2b we might be ok there. Story is so good on D that it might make up for the bat (unless a full season will fuel a rebound)
catching is fine… ordinary but fine.
Starting pitching… ugggg…. Bello looks good but I need to see more. And then what? I know people like to dream on improvement from Crawford (I’m not banking on it) but I’m kinda of the mindset that having 6 “mediocre but not great” starting pitchers isn’t really a path to winning baseball. I don’t love the FA options so I think our saving grace needs to be a trade (Casas, above). I like Pivetta as 5th starter or you commit to the bullpen with him.
Bullpen? Trade Jansen. Trade Martín. Run Houck, Whitlock, Wincky, Schrieber, Bernadino out as your back-end and supplement as needed.
Thanks to Bloom and company we are stuck with an untradable Devers contract. I love Raffi but jeez, $300 million for a guy who can’t run or field his position is such a bad overpay. He is historically bad at 3b. Given that we don’t want $300 million tied up in a DH (plus, Yoshida) I do wonder if our only recourse is to give serious thought to trading Casas for pitching and moving Raffi to 1B. I’m not sure who replacement 3b could be, but it’s likely a 2 year transition out this mess. Moving Raffi can help our pitching as well.
I think we are also stuck with Yoshida at LF/DH so I think we’ll have to let that run out (again, I like Masa, but another poor decision to sign him at that contract given the D)… the rest if the OF is a million questions. Just not really digging it but maybe there something there.
Depending on how Grissom pans out at 2b we might be ok there. Story is so good on D that it might make up for the bat (unless a full season will fuel a rebound)
catching is fine… ordinary but fine.
Starting pitching… ugggg…. Bello looks good but I need to see more. And then what? I know people like to dream on improvement from Crawford (I’m not banking on it) but I’m kinda of the mindset that having 6 “mediocre but not great” starting pitchers isn’t really a path to winning baseball. I don’t love the FA options so I think our saving grace needs to be a trade (Casas, above). I like Pivetta as 5th starter or you commit to the bullpen with him.
Bullpen? Trade Jansen. Trade Martín. Run Houck, Whitlock, Wincky, Schrieber, Bernadino out as your back-end and supplement as needed.
I don’t really think it’s needed. I think between Whitlock and Houck we have our closer in-house.
Is it? A prospect just outside the top ten and a bunch of pieces, a starting OF with less than six years of services time,. a middle reliever, and C prospect. I think that is probably a little too thin to be realistic for Luzardo.
If I'm Miami sitting on one of the few young, controllable, top-of-the-rotation arms available on the trade market, there's no way I'm trading Luzardo without getting at least one premium prospect (Mayer/Anthony/Teel) and stapling Avisail Garcia's contract to the deal. It's not like the Marlins are in a full rebuild and Luzardo could stick around for three more seasons. They have zero pressure to trade him and it's a seller's market by a mile.
By the way, both things can be true: that the trade proposal discussed above would be the asking price for Luzardo, and it's also way too rich a price for the Red Sox to pay. But as has rehashed on this board many times, you either overpay for top starting pitching in free agency, or you overpay in prospects, or you sign guys like Paxton/Lorenzen/Ryu/Clevinger and cross your fingers.
Sure. Luzardo definitely gets you Meyer +. But Bleis is still a borderline top 100 prospect and Duran and Winckowski are both valuable players worth about 2 wins each last year, both have 5 years of control left. And Luzardo is a very good pitcher, but not a franchise cornerstone.
You can have Meyer, one of Duran/Wink, and Emmanuel Valdez.
I think the Sox need to be realistic at this point. Best chance to win is likely 3-5 years from now, maybe two years if they get really strong development from all of the kids. With that in mind it makes sense to trade for players particularly starting pitchers whom the Sox believe will still be good or who will develop into good pitchers within the next two to five years. Relief pitching is hard to project 2 or 3 three years down the road, starters are also for that matter, but I think the Sox are by far the weakest team in the AL East now and I don't see a path to improve that without spending huge on Snell and Montgomery, neither of who are sure fire locks to be true aces, but if paired with our current roster gives us a fighting chance in the division. At this point I think the best shot is to trade assets on major league roster for young, long term controllable starters, maybe a jack Leiter type with Texas if the Sox think they can help him regain his form. Take our lumps for a couple more years and pray the kids pan out. I am always weary on waiting for young players to reach their potential. IMO nothing gets a manager fired faster than platers with potential who fall short. I think we are in a very bad spot unless we develop a lot of pitching.
The odd inverse of this is to argue that the deal won't be a loser for Boston, yet at the same time is too good for Miami to pass up. And I don't think that works.
Regardless, the reporting is they kicked the tires on Luzardo and there is no deal to be had with Miami. Meaning, one supposes, the sides were too far apart to continue discussing it.
This is interesting. I do think that both Duran and Rafaela are a bit too valuable to move for Curry or Morgan, but Abreu for one of them is an interesting idea. Curry has some surface level comparisons to Kutter Crawford (as in their numbers and ages at the AA and AAA level, as well as their first real exposure to the big leagues). Curry's first real exposure doesn't look that far off from Crawford's (95ip, 4.07ERA/4.50FIP/1.347whip/2.23k to bb ratio for Curry at age 24 vs 77ip, 5.47ERA/4.34FIP/1.422whip/2.66k to bb ratio). They also both have a (different) but fairly deep arsenal with Curry featuring a 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) and Crawford a 5 pitch mix (fastball, cutter, curve, change, slider). Good call.
Totally agree. I just got admittedly caught up on your line calling Steph considerably better. Probably shouldn't have. Agree though. Since it appears as though the Sox are at this point, lets at least say "unlikely" to do anything to upgrade their rotation for the 2024-2026 period, I'd also much rather take a one year flier on some BP pitcher and hope to flip him at the deadline, and Steph is as good a bet as any. If you're going to stink anyway, at least "stink" with the kids in the rotation based on there being a higher (but small) likelihood of them all becoming really good than of getting anything of value out of Mike Lorenzen and Ryu. (I say *all* because I think from Crawford, Houck and Whitlock you're likely going to get one that is fine as a back of the rotation starter, one a good bullpen piece and possibly two that are good bullpen pieces long term, but expecting more than one decent SP from them seems way too much like Oakland saying "and we're going to be really good because we have all of Waldichuk, Medina, Mason Miller, Kyle Muller, JP Sears and Joe Boyle."
Edited down for responses (please let me know if this takes anything out of context from what you meant, that is not my intention).
1 - I'd certainly consider Devers (or Casas) to DH and the other to 1b, however that works out. But I don't think the answer is trading Casas (unless you're talking about getting George Kirby or Logan Webb type pitchers and control in return). However, I do think this is where the idea of trading Yoshida makes sense. There are teams that have ostensibly at least been calling on him to see what his availability is like. So let's assume you could move him for a "decent" prospect and covering about 1/3 of his remaining salary. I'd far rather do this than deal Casas.
2 - Mostly agree with the SP take, though I am a big fan of Montgomery, so while clearly I don't "love" the FA options either (that was Nola for me), I "really, really, really like the SP option and want to spend more time with" Montgomery. But no way I'm trading Casas short of Kirby/Webb type pieces. I'd literally rather Devers at DH, Casas at 1b and Yoshida as a bench bat than deal Casas for 1 year of anyone.
3 - As it stands, agree totally on the bullpen. Though I do think you could get a really interesting, high level and advanced pitching prospect if you found a team that needed bullpen help and packaged Jansen, Martin and Pivetta for said piece (think Max Meyer, Jack Leiter, No way DDski gives up Painter for that, but I'd make the call, maybe you can pry Misiorowski from Milwaukee, but they do already have DWilliams, is StL in a place now where they'd consider that for Hence, probably wouldn't need to give up quite THAT much but the D'backs for Yu-Min Lin, Seattle for Emerson Hancock).
4 - Admit that it's "still too early" for that, but once Montgomery and Snell sign with "not the Red Sox" it won't be too early any more.
I really do get your point about it being an overpay @moondog80, and it is. But I think it needs to be that kind of overpay to get Miami to consider it as others have alluded to. There is no "Sanchez", "Kopech" or even "Espinoza" in the system to deal to get a starting pitcher back. So you are faced with three choices - none of which I envy Breslow having to make, mind you - but a) overpay for FAs (which is clearly not happening) b) overpay in terms of hitting prospects to get pitching (which I don't think will happen but hope it does) ; c) sign guys willing to take one year deals and stink for the 3rd consecutive season; d) go with what you have and highly likely stink for the 3rd consecutive season - but at least with more upside than option c; e) deal off anyone on a one year deal and hope to hit on those prospects, which should be part of c and d, I suppose.
Personally (in order of preference) I'm hoping for a, then b, then e.
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agree and my thought about Casas trade would be impact for impact. I was looking at a Bieber+ extension scenario… but I just feel like we cannot go for award with a team built of DH types playing the field. What pitcher wants to throw in front of that?
I love Raffi but I really wish we hadn’t given him all that money… unless his bat gets into rarefied air it was way too reactionary. (My point about Bloom just being way over his head stands)
Totally agree on the DH types.
If that were Casas for someone like Kirby, I'm totally on board. I'd just rather straight up DFA Yoshida than move Casas for one or two years of someone (and I don't think they should DFA Yoshida, obviously).
What to do at 3b is tough though. Not that I've seen him play a minute of defense, but the write up on Blaze Jordan from Sox Prospects doesn't sound like he's on the horizon for that position (more of yet another 1b/DH type, but at least he's a right handed hitter). Meidroth also seems untenable there as a starting option - again, according to SP. "Field: Has split time defensively between third base and first base, and likely will end up at first. Showed improved agility and mobility later in high school, but is not a natural defender at third. Lacks fluidity in the field, footwork needs work. Below-average range. Hands work much better at first base than third. Shows confidence picking balls in the dirt and lack of range is not as much of an issue there. Potential above-average defender at first base and below-average defender at third."
I wonder if there is any thought at all to having Mayer at 3b. Story didn't have the arm for it in Colorado and I can't imagine he will following modified Tommy John (but who knows). Grissom doesn't either. Mayer ostensibly should. I get that a lot of Mayer's value is tied to being a short stop, but with no real 3b prospect in the system and roughly 500 middle infielders, maybe...
The Astros are definitely not freaking out about losing Graveman for the year on top of all their other bullpen departures while being $1m under CBT, I wonder what a full freight Jansen or Martin could get from them?
Filed under “totally unrealistic, but I’d ask”:
Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, $30m (covering all their salaries) to Houston
Hunter Brown and Jose Abreu (we pay his full freight) to Boston
It checks out on BTV. Houston does it because this gives them another honest crack at it while they have Bergman, Altuve, Verlander and Valdez all under contract.
Boston does it because Hunter Brown. (I still don’t think Houston does it, but I’ll hope for the best).
Far more realistic - Boston pays the full freight on the two and gets Spencer Arrighetti. Houston’s top pitching prospect. He’d be Boston’s also.
Split time between AA and AAA last year. Had a 4.50ish ERA in AAA, but it’s the PCL, so very large grains of salt.
I really hope Breslow makes a bunch of these kind of deals in the next month.
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There is no reason why Houston would trade away for their top pitching prospect for freight. Absolutely zero chance. Cmon
Hi, La ? Listen, I'll trade you 2 prospects of your choice and 3 guys off my roster for Ohtani. Deal? Great, I knew you would jump at the opportunity.
You really don’t think Houston would deal Arrighetti for a fully paid for Jansen and Martin?
Possibly not, but I don’t think based on where they are now it’s laughable. Could be wrong, of course.
Edit - realized I wrote one of the two previously. Got caught up typing on an iPad.
Possibly not, but I don’t think based on where they are now it’s laughable. Could be wrong, of course.
Edit - realized I wrote one of the two previously. Got caught up typing on an iPad.
Houston’s farm system is horrible right now too. Arrighetti isn’t even that good of a prospect. I don’t seen them as great trade partners.
I’d expect you could get more some place else.
I’d expect you could get more some place else.
Anyone with thoughts of what bullpen package + might be able to get Chas McCormick in return. RH power in the OF, very good defender in CF. Locked down for 2.85
This season with 2 more years of arbitration eligibility.
This season with 2 more years of arbitration eligibility.
Why is Houston trading players that are young, cheap, and good when they’re looking to compete this year and most of their core are up for new deals in the next 2 years?
For whatever reason, Chas McCormick has never gotten the playing time his talent would suggest he should. That may have been a Dusty Baker thing and perhaps he'll be more full time with Baker gone; there was an athletic article last fall that suggested others in the organization disagreed with Baker's usage of him. But if not, I think he'd be a good target.
The question of why Houston would be motivated to move valuable pieces to shore up the bullpen really comes down to whether they're willing to go over the CBT, which is something they've only done once. If they won't, they're very limited in what they can add without dumping salary, so getting freight payed might be meaningful to them.
The question of why Houston would be motivated to move valuable pieces to shore up the bullpen really comes down to whether they're willing to go over the CBT, which is something they've only done once. If they won't, they're very limited in what they can add without dumping salary, so getting freight payed might be meaningful to them.
Why did they do it last deadline when they made a very similar deal for Verlander? I think that's a pretty interesting offer actually.
They traded 2 prospects for Verlander - one in AA and one in A+. It’s unlikely either one of those guys will make an impact within the next couple of years. People are talking about trading for Hunter Brown and Chas McCormick. Brown was a consensus top 50 prospect who had a good rookie season and McCormick put up nearly 4 WAR last year. Not only would the cost be astronomical but both figure to contribute significantly to their team this year. I don’t see how it’s comparable at all.
They didn’t give up major league players, though, and that was to get Verlander, who they saw as a difference maker in the post-season. I suspect if they were willing to move Chas they could get a lot more than a subsidized Martin or Jansen (the latter really doesn’t fit anyways since they have Pressly).
Martin and Jansen are both projected to be <1 win players this year. I doubt there’s a huge market for them, even if they are subsidized.
The Astros lost about 250 bullpen innings between Graveman's surgery and FAs. If they're willing to go over CBT, that's an easy enough problem to solve. If not, they may need to get creative and/or desperate.
How about something like Martin, cash TBD and Duran? Full disclosure, I've no idea how trade evaluators work so I've no idea how this might match up. I also have no idea what the Astros have in the minors, but since this is mostly a "what if" thread let's use this as a jumping off point. Houston gets a pen piece that should fill a need and a cost controlled MLB ready (YMMV) outfielder as well as cash. McCormick adds RH power and strengthens the OF defensively. Martin addresses an immediate need for Houston, Duran fills a roster hole that McCormick would leave and adds two more years of control. The Sox could also throw in cash.
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