Going into this offseason with a huge SP need and only swapping out Sale with Giolito (and getting zero long-term upside) would be pretty disappointing. We, again, have to wait and see what is done but I’m not sure where it leaves us if we pass on the remaining top FA SPs and refuse to make any trades for rentals. You’re basically left with maybe Luzardo and Cease? And both of those guys are probably costing you a top 3 guy.
Like you said, is this ownership group really going to sign on to the 30s of Burnes, Fried, etc. at likely higher dollar amounts than what Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga, Stroman, etc. will receive?
I’m less anxious and more just curious. I really have no idea where this is heading but have a feeling some more surprises are on their way.
Agree that Cease or Luzardo would cost a top 3 guy. But since the Red Sox have Story, Grissom, Yorke, Cespedes and roughly 212 middle infield type prospects in the next tier down (ok, that is an exaggeration, but an additional 4) and have basically nothing in terms of pitching, I'd move Mayer in a deal for Cease or Luzardo in a second. Miami or ChW would need significantly more coming with him. I'd add anything else they wanted with Mayer that isn't Devers, Bello, Casas, Grissom, Anthony or Teel in any number. I'm not even sure that gets it done, but I would.
There will probably be surprises, but that doesn't necessarily mean good. I was very surprised when they didn't offer Bogaerts an extension of 6/$175m right after Story signed (because if they had and Boras rebuffed them, we'd have heard about it by now). I was surprised when the team didn't make more sell moves at the 2022 deadline. I was surprised that they didn't sign any mid tier SPs last off-season. I was surprised we didn't go out and get some pitching at last year's trade deadline. Once that became evident, I was incredibly shocked they didn't at least sell the one year hitters at last season's trade deadline. I'm surprised they're apparently out (well, not being more aggressive) on Montgomery, Imanaga or Stroman.
But here we are.
Before I lean fully into the idea of starting to try and trade every MLB piece that isn't under contract for 2025+ (and it's coming) since "there is still a lot of off-season left" I've decided to look for some candidates I'd be interested in trying to buy on a "bad" contract.
Top of the list for me:
1) Jameson Taillon, ChC. I was interested in him last year (hey, so was Breslow!) and there are some very smart people on this board that have implied that ChC would get rid of that deal if they could. I don't know that I believe that, but I trust the intelligence of those people so lets say they'd consider it. Taillon was not good last year on balance, but in his second half he started 14g with a 3.70ERA and a 4.05 k/bb ratio, which are right in line with his career numbers. He was a durable (30 starts per season) exactly average pitcher in the AL East for the Yankees and is on (in essence) a 3/$54m/$18m deal right now. No idea what ChC would want, or if they're willing to move him, but I'd be totally on board with taking over that deal.
1a) Deal Pivetta for whatever you can get - which is probably a pretty decent(ish) prospect but more importantly for the purposes of this saves about $6m.
2) Nick Castellanos, Phi. There were at least some rumors earlier in the year that Philly was open to moving him. As a RHH OF (and not a terribly good one) I'd at least take the shot of seeing what it looked like in LF in Fenway Park. He has 3/$60m/$20m left. He's a 113 career OPS+ hitter (112 last year). To be clear, he is an abysmal right fielder, but I could see playing LF in a small park helping him at least a little, and at least (per BB Savant) he looks no worse in RF than Yoshida did in LF, so maybe he'd be a bit less horrendous. Low bar to clear, but it would also free up trading one of Duran or Abreu for something cost controlled that pitches or allowing Rafaela to be in AAA while not giving starts every game to O'Neill and Refsnyder (and I have no interest in a full season of those two sharing "starting RF duties"; neither are part of the core / combined they're not good enough to be a "starting" RF on a playoff team from the AL East). Both are fine as bench pieces, if you "pencil them in" for more, your team probably stinks.
Bonus - 3) Would SD (and Joe Musgrove) be interested in a move. For starters, Musgrove is from the San Diego area and took less on an extension to stay in San Diego. He might not be open to leaving and as such SD might not be at all willing to talk about moving him. But I'd make the call and see if anything has changed for Musgrove based on the Padres seemingly going back to a mid market team. This is pretty doubtful, but I'd try.
I'm not going to pretend to know what a trade would look like. BTV has all those deals as somewhere between "underwater" and "holy crap this is bad" for their teams. However, Boston is a bad team right now and looks that way for 2024 and 2025. At least "prior year" bad deals are less expensive than this year's bad deals (yay inflation), would be short term and would likely cost very little in terms of prospect capital. If some on this site (and I sincerely respect their opinions) think those teams would love to just "get out from those deals", I'll allow that it's certainly possible smart executives might feel that way too (or they might not).
However, that would give up nothing of consequence from the prospect pile and would probably look something like:
Rafaela / Duran - CF *at least Rafaela would probably get strikes to hit.
Devers (L) - 3b
Castellanos (R) - LF
Casas (L) - 1b
Story (R) - SS
Yoshida (L) - DH
Grissom (R) - 2b
Abreu (L) - RF
Wong (R) - C
O'Neill, Refsnyder, McGuire, Reyes
Bello, Giolito, Taillon, Crawford, Houck.
Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, whatever else.
Sox payroll has the team at roughly $200m right now. Adding Castellanos and Taillon at their full salaries while moving PIvetta puts them at $232m. Still far enough below the $Lux Tax Threshold that it would be feasible based on even last year's apparent $225m mandate and leave a little room for the deadline.
It's not exactly "good" but I think it's a heck of a lot more likely to make a playoff push than what we have now. Also doesn't take on anything too ludicrous in terms of contracts. This is highly unlikely, but it's more fun than thinking about another three years of rotations with whatever that year's version of Corey Kluber are.
