Kevin Love News and Rumors

[Leather]

You are comparing major media markets and big city living for young millionaires.......with Minnesota and Milwaukee? I agree Boston is not on the top of the list for FA as I've stated this on many occassions as to why remaining above the salary cap ADDS flexibility in our case.

Small markets + frigid winters are not great selling points. Anyone arguing this is either blind, completely closed minded or a resident of these cities. This wasn't me slamming the city (i enjoyed my time in Minny......when i was indoors) only stating the obvious. Hey, Ramon $essions sure liked it!

 
If you can provide a link to support your assertion, I'll stand corrected.  It just sounds like speculative bullshit to me, and you're already backing off by moving the goalposts from Minnesota being "the one team" to lumping it with Milwaukee.

 

[wutang112878]

Their superstar is letting the team and everyone in the NBA know he can't get out of town soon enough. At this point if the team can tread water in a return they are a massive winner in this deal as opposed to taking back 50 cents on the dollar.

It's about expectations......the Wolves goal isn't to win a Championship like an OKC or a Miami. Making the playoffs is a monumental accomplishment with the obstacles they face in acquiring players and they know this.......and their fans know this!

 
Let me clarify my view of treading water.  They will be treading water with Thompson who is 25, Pekovic who is 28 and Lee who is 31.  Lee's performance is only going to go down, Pekovic has topped out as a player and Thompson probably doesnt have that much more improvement in him.  So your core is going to be decaying not growing and you are not gaining any financial flexibility.  This is if you go a trade for some veterans route.
 
Alternatively, look at the Celts offer they get Sully who probably has some improvement left in him, the #6 who should be a building block who will be cheap and improving, and the #17 who should get you a cheap role player.  Now if I was Flip to make the money match (Love is at ~$16M) I would ask for Sully ($1.4M) Bass ($7M expiring) and Bogans ($5.3M non-guaranteed deal) and I would ask for Jeff Green at $9.4M bringing the total intake to ~$23M and I would demand that the Celts also wipe out a Minny mistake like Budinger, Barea or Brewer.  So then they would have at least $12M coming off the cap next year (Bass & Bogans) and if Green opts out a total of ~$22M coming off the cap bringing their total to ~$44M in 14/15 which is a much healthier situation.
 
So in one scenario you have no financial flexibility and a core of Thompson, Pekovic and Lee that is decaying.  Or you have $44M in salary, Sully the #6 and #17 picks, which is a healthier cap situation and a younger player situation.  The difference between the 2 situations are Thompson, Lee & no financial flexibility or Sully, #6, #17 and financial flexibility.  Personally I would want a bit of a reboot for that franchise so thats a freaking no brainer to me.  But Flip is Flip and doesnt seem to be a big picture, risk taker type of guy so I wont be shocked if he goes with the GS deal and thinks he can make it work but man is that amazingly shortsighted.

 

[Devizier]

M/SP is a great place, in my book superior to many, if not most current NBA cities. But they just had a winter where they had >50 days below zero. It was also cold as fuck in Chicago, Cleveland, etc. So that's worth mentioning, too. All this is besides the point, because the real reason no one wants to play in Minnesota is that the team has been historically awful. Maybe if they stopped making moves that put them in that category - like overpaying for Klay Thompson - they'll actually become a viable free agency destination.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

It is? With the exception of the Pacers, who play in a city which is not as cold as Minneapolis and has been considered a contender for a few seasons now, has any one of the teams from the cities you mentioned attracted a top free agent? If so, please name them.

The only way those teams will convince a marquee free agent to sign is if they happen to be close to contending for a title.

 
This isn't always a fair way to approach the issue though. Realistically, you'd have to isolate how many times any of those teams had the cap space to sign a top free agent (after defining what constitutes a top free agent) and failed to do so. A lot of organizations in the NBA work under the assumption that free agency isn't a viable means of acquiring top notch talent, and thus rarely enter offseasons with space or intention of signing stars.

 

[Leather]

The average temperature in January in Minnesota is 9-12 degrees colder than those other cities. There's cold and then there's really fucking miserable cold that you find in Minneapolis. I used to take weekly flights from Boston to Minneapolis in the winter and the difference is noticeable. As HRB pointed out, i think small market plus cold winter puts teams like Minny and Milwaukee at a disadvantage.

What qualifies as a "small market"?

L-

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

 
What qualifies as a "small market"?  
 
Look, naturally some cities are a more appealing place to spend winter.  No doubt.   But that factor also applies to places like Cleveland,  Milwaukee, Indy, Detroit, etc...  It's not exclusive to Minneapolis, which is, after all, a far bigger market than Milwaukee, Cleveland, and  Indy.  So even on the "small market/cold weather" sliding scale, it doesn't make sense that it's the only team that players won't consider.   As has been stated, players don't look to Minnesota as a destination because they always fucking suck, play in kind of a shitbox, and they have nothing to offer on the court.   You can't tell me that if the Wolves were legit contenders the past couple of years and primed to make a move, that this Kevin Love situation would be the same.  It wouldn't. 
 
The Minnesota Wild have no problem attracting free agents (despite also kind of sucking
), so this is just pseudo-scientific bullshit.

The Minnesota Wild are a professional hockey team - a sport that is traditionally played in cold weather climes and also one that draws talent from similarly cold or colder places (e.g. the Canadaian Prairies). Its not a good comparison imho.

GnMB does make a good point in that cap room may have also limited some of the aforementioned teams ability to sign top FAs. That said, I still suspect that a lot of top players in the NBA would need to see the team as a legitimate contender before signing to play in one of those cities.

 

[bowiac]

The Minnesota Wild have no problem attracting free agents (despite also kind of sucking), so this is just pseudo-scientific bullshit.

After doing some googling, I discovered that the Minnesota Wild are a hockey team. They are presumably staffed with a whole lot of Canadians, who largely grew up with this weather. I think people agree that Cleveland, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit, etc... all each also have trouble attracting free agents as well however.
 
I don't think this is really a major factor however to be honest. As GMB points out, NBA free agency is a strange beast to begin with. There have only been a handful of max salary free agents ever, since the modern CBA structure came into effect. That's where you'd expect to see most of this "cold weather" effect, when the money is otherwise the same. Maybe it has a big impact with veteran minimum guys as well I suppose. Otherwise, most players just take the money. Minnesota hasn't attracted many free agents, but neither have New Orleans, Orlando, or the Clippers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
What qualifies as a "small market"?  
 
Look, naturally some cities are a more appealing place to spend winter.  No doubt.   But that factor also applies to places like Cleveland,  Milwaukee, Indy, Detroit, etc...  It's not exclusive to Minneapolis, which is, after all, a far bigger market than Milwaukee, Cleveland, and  Indy.  So even on the "small market/cold weather" sliding scale, it doesn't make sense that it's the only team that players won't consider.   As has been stated, players don't look to Minnesota as a destination because they always fucking suck, play in kind of a shitbox, and they have nothing to offer on the court.   You can't tell me that if the Wolves were legit contenders the past couple of years and primed to make a move, that this Kevin Love situation would be the same.  It wouldn't. 
 
The Minnesota Wild have no problem attracting free agents (despite also kind of sucking), so this is just pseudo-scientific bullshit.

What actual evidence are you looking for? The last time (only time) the Wolves were legit contenders Latrell Sprewell choose to leave $30m on the table and retire than remain in Minnesota. JJ Redick turned down 4/$30m. Sessions had to be guaranteed 4 years when the Knicks had only had one on the table.

And on and on and on.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Why are we talking about MIN not being able to sign top free agents? This whole thing got started when HRB said MIN has to overpay BENCH PLAYERS to fill out their roster. 
 

In a vacuum yes.....but this is Minnesota who are the one team who really has to overpay FA backups to play up there and live up there in the winter. I've spent weeks in Minnesota during each winter month.....you'd have to overpay me to spend my winters there when I can live in Phoenix, Miami, Texas, or California instead.

It's also not crippling to them as they aren't going to be spending/luring big name FA to Minnesota. It's the price of doing business so long as an NBA team plays in that city during the winters.

 
No big name FA is going to sign in MIN if he has better alternatives in a big city with better weather. It just won't happen.
 
But if you can draft another Kevin Garnett, you'll get free agents bench guys/role players to come. 
 
 
And if you don't have a Kevin Garnett, you're a stupid moronic dumb GM if you spend your money overpaying for backups. It's a terrible strategy. They'd be better off with min. salary guys than overpaying for a bench on a team that likely won't make the playoffs. 

 

[Leather]

Nevermind. Derailing thread.  

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

What actual evidence are you looking for? The last time (only time) the Wolves were legit contenders Latrell Sprewell choose to leave $30m on the table and retire than remain in Minnesota. JJ Redick turned down 4/$30m. Sessions had to be guaranteed 4 years when the Knicks had only had one on the table.

And on and on and on.

 
Redick ended up getting 4/27 from a legit contender. He also, famously, spoke of how during the Bucks playoff series the year prior their head coach didn't speak to him at all. There was much more going on there than weather. Sprewell turned down the offer from Minnesota because he felt the money wasn't enough (the whole "I've got a family to feed" thing)--not because he hated the cold weather. He's from Milwaukee, after all, and still lives there now. And your facts are wrong on Sessions. He was a RFA in Milwaukee, and signed in Minnesota. Milwaukee chose not to match.

 

[The Social Chair]

Sure it did. They were looking to add a stud PG and use the other one to bring back a star frontcourt player since there wasn't any available in that backcourt-rich draft. Let's not forget that MANY people had questions about Curry being able to succeed at this level due to him being so frail at the time and whether he could defend his position......hindsight is 20/20.

 
It's not hindsight. There's not one mock draft that had Flynn ranked over Curry. That pick was a big reach at the time.

 

[moondog80]

 
It's not hindsight. There's not one mock draft that had Flynn ranked over Curry. That pick was a big reach at the time.

 
 
The first one that came up after I googled it has Flynn over Curry.
 
http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft
 
EDIT:
 
So does this one from Chad Ford (it's insider but it has Flynn and 6 and Curry at 8).
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MockDraft-090625

 

[bbc23]

 
It's not hindsight. There's not one mock draft that had Flynn ranked over Curry. That pick was a big reach at the time.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft
This is literally the 1st one I found (DraftExpress had him going #10 in their final mock).  
Flynn was a consensus lotto pick at worst from what I can remember. The guy was extremely good at Syracuse and had a solid rookie season.  Sucks his hip injury totally derailed his career, but that was certainly not the reach you make it out to be.  

 

[swingin val]

First link when I type in "2009 NBA mock draft"

http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft

 

[Devizier]

Let's look at this the other way:
 
Name a major free agency signing by the Miami Heat before Dwyane Wade was drafted (note: Mourning, Hardaway, Jones were all acquired by trade).
Moreover, have the Clippers signed any major free agents away from someone else?
 
We can play this all day.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Redick ended up getting 4/27 from a legit contender. He also, famously, spoke of how during the Bucks playoff series the year prior their head coach didn't speak to him at all. There was much more going on there than weather. Sprewell turned down the offer from Minnesota because he felt the money wasn't enough (the whole "I've got a family to feed" thing)--not because he hated the cold weather. He's from Milwaukee, after all, and still lives there now. And your facts are wrong on Sessions. He was a RFA in Milwaukee, and signed in Minnesota. Milwaukee chose not to match.

Sessions was a RFA whose other offer was 1-yr in NY that Minny had to go 4 yrs to get him after whiffing on every other target that summer. Minny also could not get anyone to come during any of their KG years without overpaying to fill out their rotation. Frankly I'm kinda surprised people are actually debating this.

 

[wutang112878]

Sessions was a RFA whose other offer was 1-yr in NY that Minny had to go 4 yrs to get him after whiffing on every other target that summer. Minny also could not get anyone to come during any of their KG years without overpaying to fill out their rotation. Frankly I'm kinda surprised people are actually debating this.

 
Its unclear how much of the problem was 'cant attract anyone' and 'McHale didnt know what he was doing'.  McHale had so many prime KG years and he could just never complimentary talent around him.  I also dont think they were ever under the salary cap enough to actually go get anyone of consequence, and typically those moderate FA signings are overpays unless you are a top 5 team in the NBA just about every MLE type FA signing really isnt a 'great value' situation.

 

[The Social Chair]

Chad Ford had Curry at 8, Flynn at 13
 
Draft Express had Curry at 6, Flynn at 10
 
Yahoo had Curry at 10, Flynn at 13
 
Inside Hoops had Curry at 5, Flynn at 8
 
If somebody drafts Elfrid Payton before Aaron Gordon or Marcus Smart tomorrow we'd call it a reach.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Sessions was a RFA whose other offer was 1-yr in NY that Minny had to go 4 yrs to get him after whiffing on every other target that summer. Minny also could not get anyone to come during any of their KG years without overpaying to fill out their rotation. Frankly I'm kinda surprised people are actually debating this.

 
I'm not sure what you're arguing, exactly. The Knicks refusal to go longterm was about cap space in 2010 and finalizing a deal with Nate Robinson, not about Sessions value. D'Antoni wanted Sessions badly, as he'd played AAU ball for his brother, Donnie Walsh just refused to take on salary before the summer of LeBron. There's no indication that Sessions ever seriously considered New York's offer, or that Minnesota had to bid him up to 4 years 16 million to pry him away from the warm, warm winters of New York.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Let's not forget that the "secret deal" with Joe Smith cost the T-Wolves their next FIVE first round draft picks!
 

The Timberwolves were fined $3.5 million, and forfeited their first-round draft picks for the next five years (the team’s 2003 pick was eventually restored). Not only was Smith’s newly-signed contract voided, his previous two were as well, meaning he would no longer retain his Bird rights with the Timberwolves. Additionally, Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor was suspended through August 31, 2001, and VP of basketball operations Kevin McHale took a leave of absence through July 31.
 

 
Talk about crippling the franchise during KG's entire prime. 

 

[Devizier]

Let's not forget that the "secret deal" with Joe Smith cost the T-Wolves their next FIVE first round draft picks!
 
 
Talk about crippling the franchise during KG's entire prime. 

 
Yep. The Joe Smith deal really cemented McHale's status as the worst GM in 'Wolves history. Not that others haven't tried to snatch the title away from him.

 

[Brickowski]

Losing 5 first round picks in the Joe Smith fiasco didn't exactly help McHale to rebuild, although they got one pick back (2003).

The biggest issue for FAs is money. The second biggest issue is the state of the franchise. Geography is way down the list. San Antonio is a small market with some pretty lousy weather (unless you like 110 degrees in the shade) and so are OKC and Indiana. But no one says "Oh free agents wont go there."

 

[swingin val]

Yea, I think HRB in particular is way overstating the weather as a reason. Yea, it's cold. It's cold in CHI, DET, OKC, BOS, etc. Players will generally go where the money is. If there is more of it in DET or MIN, then they will most likely go there. If the money is close, they will go to LA or NY or MIA.

 

[DJnVa]

Chad Ford had Curry at 8, Flynn at 13
 
Draft Express had Curry at 6, Flynn at 10
 
Yahoo had Curry at 10, Flynn at 13
 
Inside Hoops had Curry at 5, Flynn at 8
 
 

 
So?
 
You said not one had it the other way.

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/ThompsonScribe/status/481826044924944384

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

https://twitter.com/ThompsonScribe/status/481826044924944384

Baghdad Bob by the Bay

 

[67YAZ]

Josh Smith is a good data point for the "weather doesn't matter" argument.

 
The issue is getting FAs to sign in Minny.  The winter weather is miserable.  The franchise has been a mess for a long while.  Combine that with the national media attention given to the Twin Cities, and it's a hard place to make the leap to stardom and beyond-local endorsements.  The state income tax on earnings over $74, 651 are 7.85%!  And Minny is not known as a hub for Black culture.  (How many NBA players are regular "Prairie Home Companion" listeners?  Maybe Tim Duncan...)

 

[Devizier]

 
The issue is getting FAs to sign in Minny.  The winter weather is miserable.  The franchise has been a mess for a long while.  Combine that with the national media attention given to the Twin Cities, and it's a hard place to make the leap to stardom and beyond-local endorsements.  The state income tax on earnings over $74, 651 are 7.85%!  And Minny is not known as a hub for Black culture.  (How many NBA players are regular "Prairie Home Companion" listeners?  Maybe Tim Duncan...)

 
The template for a bad franchise in a non-premier market should be the Sonics/Thunder. Accumulate the draft picks, do your best to nail them, and build from within. The Spurs would be a good template, too, but banking on a fortuitous injury to a generational player so that you can tank and get another generational player is kind of a shot in the dark.

 

[moondog80]

 
The template for a bad franchise in a non-premier market should be the Sonics/Thunder. Accumulate the draft picks, do your best to nail them, and build from within. The Spurs would be a good template, too, but banking on a fortuitous injury to a generational player so that you can tank and get another generational player is kind of a shot in the dark.

 
 
Drafting Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden all in three years is probably even more unlikely.
 
The template is the Celtics -- there is no particular template, just accumulate assets whenever the opportunity arises, in any way possible.  They got rid of Antoine Walker at the exact right moment and ended up, indirectly, with Rondo (because they got that extra first rounder for Jiri Welsch).  They got Tony Allen because they helped Detroit facilitate the Rasheed Wallace trade -- who cares if they helped Detroit win a title, Boston wasn't going to win it at that point anyway.  They saw the writing on the wall this year and got future picks for Doc/Pierce/KG.  

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Chad Ford had Curry at 8, Flynn at 13
 
Draft Express had Curry at 6, Flynn at 10
 
Yahoo had Curry at 10, Flynn at 13
 
Inside Hoops had Curry at 5, Flynn at 8
 
If somebody drafts Elfrid Payton before Aaron Gordon or Marcus Smart tomorrow we'd call it a reach.

Fwiw I've got Payton ahead of Smart. Is it a reach? I dunno I see it more as simply projecting one player to be a better pro than another regardless of what these "mock guys" opinion is.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Fwiw I've got Payton ahead of Smart. Is it a reach? I dunno I see it more as simply projecting one player to be a better pro than another regardless of what these "mock guys" opinion is.

 
A month ago it seemed like all the mocks had him in the back half of the first and I was reasonably hopeful we could get him at 17.  Is there anyone who's stock has risen more recently?

 

[knucklecup]

RT @basketballtalk: Report: Timberwolves have interest in Chandler Parsons, may attempt to get him in trade for Kevin Love http://t.co/iQlLSGLWf4

 

[bbc23]

RT @basketballtalk: Report: Timberwolves have interest in Chandler Parsons, may attempt to get him in trade for Kevin Love http://t.co/iQlLSGLWf4

The issue with this is that Parsons has to want to go to a crumbling Minny team while other, much more attractive teams woo and offer him.  There's not a lot Houston/Minny can do aside from promising him he'll be totally overpaid if he sits around waiting for them to finish a deal.  

 

[Cellar-Door]

The issue with this is that Parsons has to want to go to a crumbling Minny team while other, much more attractive teams woo and offer him.  There's not a lot Houston/Minny can do aside from promising him he'll be totally overpaid if he sits around waiting for them to finish a deal.  

No he doesn't, he isn't a FA at all right now. He only becomes a FA if his option is declined, and Minny would make the trade before the deadline, decline his option sending him into restricted free agency and matching his best offer.

 

[bowiac]

No he doesn't, he isn't a FA at all right now. He only becomes a FA if his option is declined, and Minny would make the trade before the deadline, decline his option sending him into restricted free agency and matching his best offer.

I believe his option has officially been declined.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I know nobody here likes David Lee but would you really prefer Chandler Parsons to him, contract cost aside (I know its hard to assume that away)?  I don't think I would.  Lee has elite offensive skills, is a superior rebounder and a better defender.  He is also more versatile in that he can play the three through five.  Of course, Parsons is a better outside shooter and is a touch more than five years younger so there is that.   

 

[Devizier]

I like Lee a lot more than Parsons, too. But I don't really like either for Minnesota right now.
 
If the Timberwolves can get Parsons to commit to an extension for presumably less than what Thompson is asking for, then sure, why not. At least they'd have something to hang on to.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I believe his option has officially been declined.

Marc Spears says they did it yesterday, but the league doesn't have it listed as an official transaction, so I don't know.
 

I know nobody here likes David Lee but would you really prefer Chandler Parsons to him, contract cost aside (I know its hard to assume that away)?  I don't think I would.  Lee has elite offensive skills, is a superior rebounder and a better defender.  He is also more versatile in that he can play the three through five.  Of course, Parsons is a better outside shooter and is a touch more than five years younger so there is that.   

Totally different players but I'd prefer Parsons. He's 5 years younger and Lee appears to be in decline. They play totally different positions Lee is a PF who doesn't stretch the floor, Parsons is a SF who shoots 37% of his shots from 3 so obviously Lee will rebound better. They don't guard the same position so it is tough to compare there, Parsons defends wings, Lee doesn't. Lee can not play 3 well, he's a 4 who can play 5. Parsons is a better passer by a solid margain.
Lee is probably as good or better than Parsons right now, but considering age I'd rather trade for Parsons than Lee if I was a GM of a team that wasn't a title contender.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Marc Spears says they did it yesterday, but the league doesn't have it listed as an official transaction, so I don't know.
 
Totally different players but I'd prefer Parsons. He's 5 years younger and Lee appears to be in decline. They play totally different positions Lee is a PF who doesn't stretch the floor, Parsons is a SF who shoots 37% of his shots from 3 so obviously Lee will rebound better. They don't guard the same position so it is tough to compare there, Parsons defends wings, Lee doesn't. Lee can not play 3 well, he's a 4 who can play 5. Parsons is a better passer by a solid margain.
Lee is probably as good or better than Parsons right now, but considering age I'd rather trade for Parsons than Lee if I was a GM of a team that wasn't a title contender.

 
I think all of your points are valid except the bolded part.  I know Lee is 31 but his skill set is one that ages fairly well (creating shots under the basket).   He just put up a PER of 19.1 after posting 19.7 and 19.2 respectively so I suppose you could refer to that as a decline.  That said, he is more of a replacement for Love than Parsons is in that he can rebound and play around the basket.  Parsons clearly has a better outside shot, as does Love but that is about it.  That said, I am admittedly probably one of only three or four David Lee fans (not counting his relatives and dry cleaner) on the planet so what do I know....

 

[bowiac]

I know nobody here likes David Lee but would you really prefer Chandler Parsons to him, contract cost aside (I know its hard to assume that away)?  I don't think I would.  Lee has elite offensive skills, is a superior rebounder and a better defender.  He is also more versatile in that he can play the three through five.  Of course, Parsons is a better outside shooter and is a touch more than five years younger so there is that.   

I slightly prefer Parsons to Lee. I'm very skeptical of the idea that Lee is a better defender than Parsons in particular, mostly because of stuff like this from Kirk Goldsberry:
 

The paper’s main point is that new kinds of analytics can reveal the abilities of the NBA’s interior defenders with newfound clarity. But as I did the analyses I couldn’t believe how bad David Lee’s numbers were. My analysis was saying that opponents hit 61 percent of their shots when David Lee was defending near the basket. This is a really high number.

Now, Goldsberry's stuff isn't gospel. He's got a real black box issue, and other analytics, both sophisticated (RPM) and not so sophisticated (drtg) don't support this critique (which is basically that Lee is among the worst defenders in the NBA, probably the worst seeing regular minutes).
 
But on the the other hand, it's not a binary analysis. If RPM and win shares are correct, then Lee vs. Parsons is close to a tossup overall. If Goldsberry is correct, the Lee is basically so awful defensively that he's unplayable. I don't know which it is, and Lee hasn't missed enough games for my SRS-methods to reveal if he's good or bad. But if there's any real chance that Goldsberry is correct, then you have to take Parsons, simply because it mostly looks like a tossup otherwise.

 

[luckiestman]

I don't like that stat. Lee may very we'll be an awful defender but I don't think they should use a rate stat on attempts. Maybe a guy is good at ball denial maybe a guy is good at making the offensive player pass. I'd much rather see points scored against in the paint vs minutes

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I slightly prefer Parsons to Lee. I'm very skeptical of the idea that Lee is a better defender than Parsons in particular, mostly because of stuff like this from Kirk Goldsberry:
 
Now, Goldsberry's stuff isn't gospel. He's got a real black box issue, and other analytics, both sophisticated (RPM) and not so sophisticated (drtg) don't support this critique (which is basically that Lee is among the worst defenders in the NBA, probably the worst seeing regular minutes).
 
But on the the other hand, it's not a binary analysis. If RPM and win shares are correct, then Lee vs. Parsons is close to a tossup overall. If Goldsberry is correct, the Lee is basically so awful defensively that he's unplayable. I don't know which it is, and Lee hasn't missed enough games for my SRS-methods to reveal if he's good or bad. But if there's any real chance that Goldsberry is correct, then you have to take Parsons, simply because it mostly looks like a tossup otherwise.

 
Empirical evidence suggests that Lee is a pretty bad defender.  I would say the same of Parsons though I have not watched nearly as much of his game.  That said, Lee's dRting has improved in each of the last three seasons whereas Parson's seems to have, at best, plateaued.   I would also add that Lee has had to guard guys like Duncan, ZBo, Aldridge, Love and Griffin each for four games over the past few seasons.    That's 20 games or one quarter of the season versus guys who are absolute beasts to defend and make most of their shots around the cup, where the percentages are higher.    Again, his defense sucks but there are some mitigating circumstances.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 I know Lee is 31 but his skill set is one that ages fairly well (creating shots under the basket).

For which team?


Thank you and don't forget to tip your waitress.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

For which team?


Thank you and don't forget to tip your waitress.

Very funny. But one thing I wont concede is that Lee is a very good offensive player. He can score with both hands and if he gets his midrange shot back (a big if) he will be a valuable offensive asset for whichever team he is playing for next season.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
 
Now, Goldsberry's stuff isn't gospel. He's got a real black box issue, and other analytics, both sophisticated (RPM) and not so sophisticated (drtg) don't support this critique (which is basically that Lee is among the worst defenders in the NBA, probably the worst seeing regular minutes).

 
RPM has its own black-box issues, of course.   All three of these are imperfect, and it's at best a guess which of them is more accurate in a given situation.   We'd need more than just those three to really do an assessment of who is the outlier and whether it's an indicator they are capturing the 'fog' better or missing it worse.  

 

[bowiac]

Empirical evidence suggests that Lee is a pretty bad defender.  I would say the same of Parsons though I have not watched nearly as much of his game.  That said, Lee's dRting has improved in each of the last three seasons whereas Parson's seems to have, at best, plateaued.   I would also add that Lee has had to guard guys like Duncan, ZBo, Aldridge, Love and Griffin each for four games over the past few seasons.    That's 20 games or one quarter of the season versus guys who are absolute beasts to defend and make most of their shots around the cup, where the percentages are higher.    Again, his defense sucks but there are some mitigating circumstances.

I think Lee is certainly interesting. His dRating is fine. His RPM (which I think deserves a lot of defensive credence) is fine. The Warriors had the 4th best defense in the NBA, with a pretty big gap between them and 5th. In some ways, it may be implausible that the 4th best defensive team had the worst defensive player in the league be third on the team in minutes. This is more or less a descriptive way of explaining why Lee's dRating and RPM are solid. Both those stats start with team defense as a starting point for defensive quality, and then use box score and +/- techniques respectively to assign credit for those results. Because the Warriors were so good defensively, it would be weird if someone on the team were truly unbelievably awful.
 
I don't really have a thesis here, just that I find Lee's defensive impact hard to understand in light of the various data points.

 

[bowiac]

RPM has its own black-box issues, of course.   All three of these are imperfect, and it's at best a guess which of them is more accurate in a given situation.   We'd need more than just those three to really do an assessment of who is the outlier and whether it's an indicator they are capturing the 'fog' better or missing it worse.  

RPM is a good deal less black box than is often suggested. While ESPN doesn't really provide the methodology, it's been described at lengthy by Eli Witus at his blog, and by the various posters at APBRmetrics. We basically know what's going into that stat and anyone can replicate it. The issue with Goldberry's stuff is that he relies on access to Synergy data that most people do not have, and we more or less need to take him at his word that he's doing it correctly. That's fine, but it's something to be aware of.
 
As for your broader point, I agree, although it's always a guess. My point is really that there's a wide disparity between two of the more respected analyses in the business on Lee, and that we can't really tell what's going on. Given that we don't know, I think we should be careful about taking a "binary" stance.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I think Lee is certainly interesting. His dRating is fine. His RPM (which I think deserves a lot of defensive credence) is fine. The Warriors had the 4th best defense in the NBA, with a pretty big gap between them and 5th. In some ways, it may be implausible that the 4th best defensive team had the worst defensive player in the league be third on the team in minutes. This is more or less a descriptive way of explaining why Lee's dRating and RPM are solid. Both those stats start with team defense as a starting point for defensive quality, and then use box score and +/- techniques respectively to assign credit for those results. Because the Warriors were so good defensively, it would be weird if someone on the team were truly unbelievably awful.
 
I don't really have a thesis here, just that I find Lee's defensive impact hard to understand in light of the various data points.

Well some of it may be explained by Lee playing with an elite (when healthy) rim protector and other very good defenders like Iguodala, Thompson and Draymond Green. They can and do make up for a lot of defensive deficiencies. Their presence is also a major factor in why Love would fit so well with Golden State.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

RPM is a good deal less black box than is often suggested. While ESPN doesn't really provide the methodology, it's been described at lengthy by Eli Witus at his blog, and by the various posters at APBRmetrics. We basically know what's going into that stat and anyone can replicate it. The issue with Goldberry's stuff is that he relies on access to Synergy data that most people do not have, and we more or less need to take him at his word that he's doing it correctly. That's fine, but it's something to be aware of.
 
As for your broader point, I agree, although it's always a guess. My point is really that there's a wide disparity between two of the more respected analyses in the business on Lee, and that we can't really tell what's going on. Given that we don't know, I think we should be careful about taking a "binary" stance.

 
Agree on the last point---I just think (and as you know have been counseling this for about a decade on here) that we need to remember what we don't know rather than use a particular metric that fits with what we come in with as a preconception.  My reaction was to the idea that we should be skeptical about Goldsberry's conclusion because two other metrics had a different one...I think we should be skeptical about all three and try to figure out why they come to different conclusions.