Let me say that I am nothing but amused by all of the off-field (and some on field) antics of Manziel, and even more so by the reaction by everyone to it. The kid is a douche, but there have been plenty of douches who weren't fully committed to their craft that ended up with some form of success in the NFL.
However, I'm completely in agreement with BigSoxFan on this. Manziel is simply not that good. He was a fantastic college QB, because his athleticism was enough to make some miracle plays and lead his team to some improbable wins, while he put up insane numbers. But, that shit don't fly in the NFL. Talk to guys like Doug Flutie about it. I was literally floored when his draft stock kept going up and he ended up going where he did. I didn't have him in the top 5 of QB's coming out, in what was a pretty weak class last year. He doesn't have a strong arm, he's inaccurate, makes poor decisions because he's not very bright and probably most importantly, he's too fucking small. I think there is a very good chance that Manziel's career flames out in less time than Ryan Leaf's and may actually end up with a worse career QB rating than Leaf's 50.0 (Manziel is at 42.0 right now).
People are talking about Winston's 17 interceptions this season as a reason why he may not be successful in the NFL. However, there is a big difference between Manziel and Winston. Winston is a winner. Manziel was 9-4 his final season and basically lost every big game they played. They lost to LSU, Alabama, Auburn and Missouri that year. In those first three losses, Manziel threw two interceptions in each game. He finished with 13 on the season. Sure, some of those teams were way more talented than A&M, but I think there is some mythical belief out there that Johnny Football led his team to win after win after win, when it's just not true. Like Winston, Manziel actually had a better freshman season, in which he did win a few big games, and the Heisman, and ultimately, I think that overshadowed how opposing teams learned how to defend him the following year and he struggled and came up small in some big spots. Bottom line is he's just not that good. Never was, never will be. Fun to watch? Absolutely. And like I said, I enjoy the hell out of the theatre he brings and the way folks react to that theatre, but I'm not only not buying low on Manziel as a football player, I never bought high and would sell at a loss if I did and get out while I could.