Everything Zen: 2023 Michigan Football

CFB_Rules

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If in-person advanced scouting provides “minimal competitive advantage” in the digital age of live streaming, according to the NCAA, then why is it still prohibited? The NCAA considered changing the rule in 2021. Why didn’t it?

And does the rule apply to coaches and other “institutional staff members” only? Or fans too? IOW, if a fan taped an opponents’ sideline and, unsolicited, sends the video to a team, is that a violation of the rule?
It doesn't even apply to the players, much less the fans. Basically just school employees.
 

CFB_Rules

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If in-person advanced scouting provides “minimal competitive advantage” in the digital age of live streaming, according to the NCAA, then why is it still prohibited? The NCAA considered changing the rule in 2021. Why didn’t it?
Because schools don't want to pay for more staff. If it's allowed they need to hire people to advance scout or else look like they aren't keeping up with the Joneses to boosters. They think it's a waste of money, but they can't convince every school to not do it. So just outlaw the things that are expensive (most technology, for example) and you'll never have to worry about spending money on things that is better off in your paycheck.
 

joe dokes

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Michigan law professor Barb McQuade weighs in and says the court case was basically lost last week when the TRO hearing wasn't scheduled immediately--essentially the court telling Michigan and JH that it didn't accept that JH missing games constitutes irreparable harm (the standard for the TRO, but also likely the PI). While I understand the logic there, 2 things come to mind. First, while the school might not be able to show irreparable harm, it seems obvious to me that JH individually should meet that standard.
https://x.com/BarbMcQuade/status/1725498938277482913?s=20

https://x.com/BarbMcQuade/status/1725516958324469829?s=20
Was Harbaugh a plaintiff?
 

Zososoxfan

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Was Harbaugh a plaintiff?
Yes:

LINK

The latest info indicates that a Michigan booster was financing Stalions (people previously believed his family was merely wealthy and Stalions was using personal funds) and Partridge was fired for trying to cover Stalions' transgressions. Once the Michigan Regents learned about the new evidence, they settled with the Conference.

The Conference's statement also states that there's been no connection showing that JH knew about the sign-stealing. And it's worth reiterating that most teams have the same sign information, but it's gleaned from fellow conference coaches, not advanced scouts like Stalions' minions.

Regardless of where you stand on this matter, this has been a fascinating scandal to follow. It'll make for a great movie someday, starring US President Tom Brady of course.

Edit: President Tom Brady
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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Yes:

LINK

The latest info indicates that a Michigan booster was financing Stalions (people previously believed his family was merely wealthy and Stalions was using personal funds) and Partridge was fired for trying to cover Stalions' transgressions. Once the Michigan Regents learned about the new evidence, they settled with the Conference.

The Conference's statement also states that there's been no connection showing that JH knew about the sign-stealing. And it's worth reiterating that most teams have the same sign information, but it's gleaned from fellow conference coaches, not advanced scouts like Stalions' minions.

Regardless of where you stand on this matter, this has been a fascinating scandal to follow. It'll make for a great movie someday, starring US President Tom Brady of course.

Edit: President Tom Brady
If “fellow college coaches” are stealing signs during the games they’re involved in, then passing those stolen signs to other programs, aren’t they then, in effect, conducting advanced, in-person scouting?

What I mean is what difference does it make if the person doing the scouting and then passing on the info is a random fan (edit: or pal of Stalions) or another team’s coach?
 

CFB_Rules

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If “fellow college coaches” are stealing signs during the games they’re involved in, then passing those stolen signs to other programs, aren’t they then, in effect, conducting advanced, in-person scouting?

What I mean is what difference does it make if the person doing the scouting and then passing on the info is a random fan (edit: or pal of Stalions) or another team’s coach?
It makes a difference in how much money it costs the university. That's what the rule is put in to prevent.
 

Awesome Fossum

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I'd have to do some research to answer that honestly. The only instances I can think of for similar issues is Wakeyleaks. That resulted in the ACC fining Louisville and 1-2 other schools $25K.
Considering the reason the rule exists is to prevent schools from spending money on this function, addressing a violation with a fine seems like it would be completely backwards.
 

Zososoxfan

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If “fellow college coaches” are stealing signs during the games they’re involved in, then passing those stolen signs to other programs, aren’t they then, in effect, conducting advanced, in-person scouting?

What I mean is what difference does it make if the person doing the scouting and then passing on the info is a random fan (edit: or pal of Stalions) or another team’s coach?
It makes a difference in how much money it costs the university. That's what the rule is put in to prevent.
@CFB_Rules is correct--the rule was implemented in 1994 ostensibly as a cost-control mechanism. But I think your post reflects why Michigan fans are mostly incredulous of this whole thing--there was little competitive advantage gained by this. So while a coach might gain some additional benefit from video focused directly on the future opponent, getting the same information but compiled and synthesized by an actual football coach is likely more effective from a competitive perspective.
 

Awesome Fossum

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I'm not sure I follow why it's completely backwards, but I was just trying to find and use some precedent.
I get why you were looking for precedent, that part makes sense. My point is: The rule exists for cost-control mechanism. The Michigans of the world are fine funding this operation, but that puts a burden on the Purdues, the Eastern Michigans, etc. to do the same or operate at a disadvantage. So when a school like Michigan violates it, addressing it with a fine misses the whole point. The idea is to prevent Michgan from spending the money on advance scouting. So when they're caught advancing scouting, making them hand over money is what would be backwards. Not sure if I'm doing a good job explaining my point.
 

Awesome Fossum

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@CFB_Rules is correct--the rule was implemented in 1994 ostensibly as a cost-control mechanism. But I think your post reflects why Michigan fans are mostly incredulous of this whole thing--there was little competitive advantage gained by this. So while a coach might gain some additional benefit from video focused directly on the future opponent, getting the same information but compiled and synthesized by an actual football coach is likely more effective from a competitive perspective.
Why do you say "ostensibly"? What do you think the real reason is?
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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I'm not sure I follow why it's completely backwards, but I was just trying to find and use some precedent.
Can’t find a link, but I read somewhere that a Baylor assistant coach was suspended for a game for violating the advanced in-person scouting rule.

Not sure how that’d apply in the Michigan case because (AFAIK) no actual Michigan coaches or staffers were conducting advanced scouting.* Stalions was farming that off to non-staff friends or fans. And Stalions’ scheme involved multiple games, not just one.

A commensurate penalty to Baylor’s might be to suspend Stalions for the number of games he arranged for others to record signs. But he’s quit already so that’s not much of a penalty.And of course there the NCAA thing about how coaches are responsibleregardless of complicity, so you could apply that penalty to Harbaugh. It’d set a terrible precedent, though.

*Which again raises the question: was the rule actually broken?
 

Awesome Fossum

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That's such a weak argument I'm honestly surprised you're advancing it. But even still, Stalions is suspected of being at the CMU/Michigan State game, right? Or was that debunked?

Here's an article on the Big 12 suspending a Baylor coach for a half for being on the sidelines during a future opponent's game:

Baylor assistant coach Jeff Lebby was reprimanded by the Big 12 on Wednesday and will be suspended for the first half against Oklahoma on Nov. 14.

Lebby, Baylor's passing game coordinator and the son-in-law of head coach Art Briles, was on the sidelines for Saturday's Tulsa-Oklahoma game in violation of NCAA rules.

Briles called the situation "embarrassing" earlier this week and Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery, a former Baylor assistant, apologized for credentialing Lebby and his wife.
https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/2015/09/23/baylor-assistant-reprimanded-suspended-for-a-half-against-ou/
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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That's such a weak argument I'm honestly surprised you're advancing it.
Is this directed at me? What argument?

But even still, Stalions is suspected of being at the CMU/Michigan State game, right? Or was that debunked?
I don’t know. If he was, I think he was working for CMU, helping them decipher MSU signs. (Several CMU coaches used to coach at Michigan). Regardless, if that was Stalions on the sidelines, that’s a clear violation of the rule.

Here's an article on the Big 12 suspending a Baylor coach for a half for being on the sidelines during a future opponent's game:
Thanks. I’d read it but couldn’t find it. Anyway, there’s the precedent folks were looking for: 1/2 game per infraction applied to the person who violated the rule. How would that apply to Stalions or Harbaugh? Note that Big Ten says it has no evidence Harbaugh knew about Stalions’s scheme (which may have been legal.) That suggests the NCAA doesn’t have any evidence against Harbaugh either.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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If in-person advanced scouting provides “minimal competitive advantage” in the digital age of live streaming, according to the NCAA, then why is it still prohibited? The NCAA considered changing the rule in 2021. Why didn’t it?
If in-person advanced scouting provides minimal competitive advantage, why did Michigan do it?
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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Michigan
If in-person advanced scouting provides minimal competitive advantage, why did Michigan do it?
First, “minimal competitive advantage” isn’t my analysis. It’s the NCAA’s.

Second, it’s not clear that Michigan did it. Right now it appears to have been a scheme carried out by a low-level recruiting analyst, perhaps with financing from a booster. But it’s a good question. Every team steals signs, or tries to, but maybe it’s easier to steal signs using fans in the stands than watching film.So maybe it provides a slight competitive advantage.

Why did Rutgers and Ohio provide in-person advanced scouting sign-stealing info to Purdue ahead of last year’s B10 championship game?
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Why did Rutgers and Ohio provide in-person advanced scouting sign-stealing info to Purdue ahead of last year’s B10 championship game?
See, this is important.

1) There is footage of Stalions literally being on the sidelines on multiple instances next to the coordinators and the head coach holding laminated sheets. So you called him a "low level recruiting analyst." To show how out of touch with reality you are, find one person standing next to a coordinator during a game who would fit the description of a "low level recruiting analyst." Let me help you - you won't. Ever.

2) The Rutgers and Ohio State info: a) Came from Michigan, submitted to the Big10. b) Used anonymous sources c) Were not taken seriously by the conference as Michigan has worn clown pants throughout this process

You are losing your grip. Get your grip back, this thing has made one mediocre poster go bananas, don't have it take down two.
 

Mystic Merlin

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First, “minimal competitive advantage” isn’t my analysis. It’s the NCAA’s.

Second, it’s not clear that Michigan did it. Right now it appears to have been a scheme carried out by a low-level recruiting analyst, perhaps with financing from a booster. But it’s a good question. Every team steals signs, or tries to, but maybe it’s easier to steal signs using fans in the stands than watching film.So maybe it provides a slight competitive advantage.

Why did Rutgers and Ohio provide in-person advanced scouting sign-stealing info to Purdue ahead of last year’s B10 championship game?
Are you suggesting that whatever intel Stalions gleaned was not passed on to the Michigan coaching staff, and that he acted independently and for no apparent gain for Michigan football? The ineffectual rogue wolf theory isn’t very compelling.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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Is it possible that Stalions and whoever else knew about his sign-stealing scheme thought it was legal, i.e. that it exploited loopholes in the NCAA rules instead of violating them? That might explain why the scheme was so brazen, with no attempt to hide it.

NCAA Rule 1-11-h prohibits recording an opposing team’s signals using any audio or video means. However, the rule explicitly applies to people in the "team area" — coaches, players, etc. — during a game. It doesn’t apply to people on the stands.

NCAA Bylaw 11.6.1 prohibits off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents within the same season (with some exceptions.) But the context of the rule strongly suggests it applies to “institutional staff members,” not to spectators or fans.

Furthermore, in 2013, the NCAA removed a ban on paying for third-party scouting services. Isn’t that, in effect, what Stalions was doing? Paying third-party fans with tickets and travel expenses (probably bought with with booster money) to scout opponents?

Stealing signs is legal. Recording signs is legal as long as you don’t do it from a restricted area (the sidelines.) Paying third parties for scouting services is legal.

All that said, if Stalions himself went to opponents’ games to conduct in-person scouting, as it appears he did at least once, the CMU-MSU game, that’s a clear violation of NCAA Bylaw 11.6.1.
 

B H Kim

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Is it possible that Stalions and whoever else knew about his sign-stealing scheme thought it was legal, i.e. that it exploited loopholes in the NCAA rules instead of violating them? That might explain why the scheme was so brazen, with no attempt to hide it.

NCAA Rule 1-11-h prohibits recording an opposing team’s signals using any audio or video means. However, the rule explicitly applies to people in the "team area" — coaches, players, etc. — during a game. It doesn’t apply to people on the stands.

NCAA Bylaw 11.6.1 prohibits off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents within the same season (with some exceptions.) But the context of the rule strongly suggests it applies to “institutional staff members,” not to spectators or fans.

Furthermore, in 2013, the NCAA removed a ban on paying for third-party scouting services. Isn’t that, in effect, what Stalions was doing? Paying third-party fans with tickets and travel expenses (probably bought with with booster money) to scout opponents?

Stealing signs is legal. Recording signs is legal as long as you don’t do it from a restricted area (the sidelines.) Paying third parties for scouting services is legal.

All that said, if Stalions himself went to opponents’ games to conduct in-person scouting, as it appears he did at least once, the CMU-MSU game, that’s a clear violation of NCAA Bylaw 11.6.1.
I don't think either of the bolded statements is correct. (See my post back on page 2 of this thread.)
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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I don't think either of the bolded statements is correct. (See my post back on page 2 of this thread.)
Maybe, but I’m less interested in whether Stalions actually broke the rules than I am in whether he and others believed they were violating the rules or exploiting loopholes. I think if they were knowingly breaking the rules they’d have made an effort to hide it. It’s relevant with regard to penalties.
 

Zososoxfan

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Michigan squeaked one out on the road @Maryland this weekend. Mikey Sainristil (of Milton, MA!) had 2 more picks this game--he's been tremendous all season. Michigan's DL continues to be absolute monsters all the way thru the 2-deep, but the LBs and the CBs are showing cracks. The hope is that Michigan was playing their OSU D regardless of how Maryland lined up, and Michigan otherwise kept their fun stuff in the barn for next week.

On O, the biggest issue is OT health, as Henderson (LT) didn't travel with the team, and Hinton who replaced him came out of the game with an injury. They shifted Barnhardt over to LT and inserted Trente Jones at RT. Both OTs are excellent run blockers but not as adept against the pass. The OGs are OGs, and Drake Nugent at C has been solid. Roman Wilson came out injured early in the game but that was hopefully precautionary as he's easily Michigan's best deep threat. The TEs made some plays, not as many as usual, and CJ played alright (missing the big play action shot though). Semaj Morgan and Tyler Morris are both really fun pieces (Morgan's TD was awesome) but also still a year away. Blake Corum led the O with 94 yards and 2 TDs. JJM had a below par game, only going 12/23 for 141 yards and an INT. He needs to play much much better against OSU. But he should be able to do that if they activate him running, which was very clearly a no-go against MD.

OHHOWIHATE!!
 

Zososoxfan

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HAIL. There's always next year, Third Base.
But will there, be?

I read an article this weekend that OSU should probably hang onto him for one more year considering the playoff expansion, and the fact that OSU has lost 4 games over the last 3 seasons, with one of those losses to UGA in the semis. I generally agree, but with the caveat that he's on the shortest of leashes next season. But the real question for OSU (in my mind) is whether Day can take this obviously top 10 program, and make them into a top 2-3 TEAM.

What I mean by that is that OSU's recruiting, facilities, following, etc. are clearly top 10. You could probably even make the argument it's top 5. But is that enough? We haven't seen the 2 previous Michigan losses affect OSU recruiting at all (OSU is consistently top 5, and would be the envy of every team not named UGA and Bama, including Michigan), and it's very relevant that Michigan is usually in the 10-20 range. IOW, Michigan is beating OSU on the field, while OSU is beating Michigan is the usual metrics we look at to predict on-field success. And while this year's game was closer, the previous 2 contests were not terribly competitive (relatively speaking). And this year we should take into account that Michigan was missing their HC and didn't have the VAUNTED SIGN STEALING ADVANTAGE.

But OSU's success or failure against Michigan (and vice versa) is about to become a whole lot less important. Michigan has really made hay these last 3 seasons by building outstanding teams (and reinforcing the program's ethos) but also by spending the majority of the season preparing for OSU. MGoBlog, a very astute Xs and Os blog, frequently talks about the meta-game of The Game. i.e., the teambuilding strategy vis-a-vis the rival. JH brought in Don Brown ahead of the '16 season and in his 4 years against OSU, Michigan entered The Game with a top 10 ranking and top 10 statistic defense in 3/4 years. Yet, only one of those games was competitive (2016) and after the 2016 game, OSU seemed to figure out Brown's more college-y defensive approach by going to a pro offense. Well, JH went to his brother over in Baltimore and set about building a pro-style defense. First with Mike Macdonald, and now with Jesse Minter. That approach (paired with a possession-dominating efficiency monster offense) really stifled OSU in '21 and '22. Michigan was better than OSU this year, but if OSU was qualifying for the CFB playoffs, I think it's fair to say they'd care a lot less.

All of this is to say that I think Michigan and OSU are about to start caring about each other a whole lot less. Coaches and programs will still care about conference titles, but in the same way bball teams do. But making a Final 4 run and winning it all, will become the new benchmarks. And when your regular season opponents become less of a can't-miss obstacle, I think coaches will become more concerned with how their game travels, especially against top 5-10 teams, than about one specific team--like Michigan and OSU do now.

I will write out my full thoughts about The Game (2023 Edition) soon, but for now, I'll just say IT'S GREAT, TO BE, A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!
 

Jason Bae

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But will there, be?

I read an article this weekend that OSU should probably hang onto him for one more year considering the playoff expansion, and the fact that OSU has lost 4 games over the last 3 seasons, with one of those losses to UGA in the semis. I generally agree, but with the caveat that he's on the shortest of leashes next season. But the real question for OSU (in my mind) is whether Day can take this obviously top 10 program, and make them into a top 2-3 TEAM.

What I mean by that is that OSU's recruiting, facilities, following, etc. are clearly top 10. You could probably even make the argument it's top 5. But is that enough? We haven't seen the 2 previous Michigan losses affect OSU recruiting at all (OSU is consistently top 5, and would be the envy of every team not named UGA and Bama, including Michigan), and it's very relevant that Michigan is usually in the 10-20 range. IOW, Michigan is beating OSU on the field, while OSU is beating Michigan is the usual metrics we look at to predict on-field success. And while this year's game was closer, the previous 2 contests were not terribly competitive (relatively speaking). And this year we should take into account that Michigan was missing their HC and didn't have the VAUNTED SIGN STEALING ADVANTAGE.

But OSU's success or failure against Michigan (and vice versa) is about to become a whole lot less important. Michigan has really made hay these last 3 seasons by building outstanding teams (and reinforcing the program's ethos) but also by spending the majority of the season preparing for OSU. MGoBlog, a very astute Xs and Os blog, frequently talks about the meta-game of The Game. i.e., the teambuilding strategy vis-a-vis the rival. JH brought in Don Brown ahead of the '16 season and in his 4 years against OSU, Michigan entered The Game with a top 10 ranking and top 10 statistic defense in 3/4 years. Yet, only one of those games was competitive (2016) and after the 2016 game, OSU seemed to figure out Brown's more college-y defensive approach by going to a pro offense. Well, JH went to his brother over in Baltimore and set about building a pro-style defense. First with Mike Macdonald, and now with Jesse Minter. That approach (paired with a possession-dominating efficiency monster offense) really stifled OSU in '21 and '22. Michigan was better than OSU this year, but if OSU was qualifying for the CFB playoffs, I think it's fair to say they'd care a lot less.

All of this is to say that I think Michigan and OSU are about to start caring about each other a whole lot less. Coaches and programs will still care about conference titles, but in the same way bball teams do. But making a Final 4 run and winning it all, will become the new benchmarks. And when your regular season opponents become less of a can't-miss obstacle, I think coaches will become more concerned with how their game travels, especially against top 5-10 teams, than about one specific team--like Michigan and OSU do now.

I will write out my full thoughts about The Game (2023 Edition) soon, but for now, I'll just say IT'S GREAT, TO BE, A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!
Not true, that 2017 game was very competitive. OSU didn't get a lead until late in the 3rd quarter and Michigan had opportunities in the 4th quarter, but O'Korn's inability to throw an accurate pass to wide open receivers doomed them. Michigan did have issues with OSU's running game and the passing game once Haskins came in, but they still held OSU to 350 yards and 31 points.

But other than that, great post.
 

Granite Sox

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Just got back from Indy and the B1G Championship. Michigan crowd was really into it, even though the game wasn’t the most exciting. It was probably 70/30 Michigan/Iowa fans. I went with a buddy who is from Iowa. Iowa fan expectations were very, very low. Basically all they talked about was how good their punter is. Somehow they overlooked just how good Iowa’s defense played. They flow to the ball as a unit, are very disciplined for the most part, and they are an outstanding tackling team.

I don’t think the Wolverines played particularly well on offense (OL was mediocre) and Iowa’s defense had something to do with that, but there was never even a single moment where the crowd felt the outcome was in doubt. After the Corum touchdown off the Morgan punt return, everyone basically called game.
 

Jason Bae

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This OL really needs a healthy Zinter and Nugent.

McCarthy didn't have the most impressive statline, but the receivers struggled to get separation all night. He made some really tough throws and managed to complete 66% of his passes, but Iowa did a great job limiting YAC. There were a few crucial drops (namely that Loveland drop on 3rd down). My only real complaint with him was that he could have gotten rid of the ball a few times instead of eating the sacks. Playcalling was pretty conservative, but I'm fine with that against a team like Iowa that eagerly waits for you to do something stupid.

Bama will be tough, but this is the 5th top 10 SP+ defense they've faced all year (Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska). Struggled with Iowa, held their own against OSU, ran well against PSU, and bulldozed Nebraska.
 
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twibnotes

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Agree we miss a healthy Zinter and Nugent. Obviously Zinter is done, but I’m holding out hope we can tap into some of the O line depth and clean things up a bit. If the blocking is solid, I think this team can keep winning. Big IF obviously.
 

Zososoxfan

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This OL really needs a healthy Zinter and Nugent.

McCarthy didn't have the most impressive statline, but the receivers struggled to get separation all night. He made some really tough throws and managed to complete 66% of his passes, but Iowa did a great job limiting YAC. There were a few crucial drops (namely that Loveland drop on 3rd down). My only real complaint with him was that he could have gotten rid of the ball a few times instead of eating the sacks. Playcalling was pretty conservative, but I'm fine with that against a team like Iowa that eagerly waits for you to do something stupid.

Bama will be tough, but this is the 5th top 10 SP+ defense they've faced all year (Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska). Struggled with Iowa, held their own against OSU, ran well against PSU, and bulldozed Nebraska.
QFT. I think JJ played very well overall and people would be talking about his performance very differently if Loveland and Barner don't make the 2 drops. Those were key plays and JJ hit them both in stride for explosive plays. You leave those on the table and yes, the statline obviously takes a hit, but more importantly the defense likely doesn't think twice about their approach (if they even would in the first place **cough, cough 2022 OSU, cough, cough**).

I gotta give props to Cornelius Johnson too. The man is basically forgotten for the first 11 games, and then comes up huge when the yards are harder to come by against OSU and Iowa. He has excellent hands and a good catch radius, even if he can't get great separation. On that note, I love Roman Wilson and think he's a big talent, but his limitations were on full display in this one.

Lots of credit goes to Iowa's D. That's a really strong unit ranked #2 in SP+ (behind your Michigan Wolverines!). Looking ahead to Bama a bit, Defensive SP+ rankings (thru CCGs) is as follows:

1. Michigan - 7.4
2. Iowa - 8.1
3. OSU - 8.8
4. PSU - 9.4
5. UGA - 13
...
9. Bama - 15.4

FWIW, on offense Michigan is 10th (37.6) and Bama is 11th (37.1). Overall SP+, Michigan is 1st (32.1) and Bama is 7th (23.7). So the stats like Michigan more than Bama, but those stats are all about telling you how a team would be expected to perform against an average team on a neutral field. Matchups play a much bigger part and aren't terribly insightful with respect to a single game.

With Bama, I want to take a look at how they performed once they turned it on (after Milroe's benching, I think?). Especially against top 10 and top 20 units. So their game against Texas might expose a weakness, but I think it's equally important to check and see if that weakness has been tightened up, especially if looking at their O.

Edit: I also have to add that Iowa got utterly screwed by the fumble call that led to a Michigan TD. While I think the play was in fact a fumble, once the play was ruled dead it's the team in Michigan's position who usually gets screwed and rightfully so. I don't think it affected the outcome, but that was nonetheless asinine. Apparently the refs gave Michigan credit for the recovery, even though it was after the whistle blew the play dead. Crazy town.
 
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Zososoxfan

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Also, Kyle McCord is entering the transfer portal, so OSU must have a blue chip QB transferring in. Still pretty surprising to me. McCord looks good for a Frosh and was very good against Michigan. Moreover, he was Ryan Day's GUY, and I don't think OSU is firing Day.
 

Jason Bae

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QFT. I think JJ played very well overall and people would be talking about his performance very differently if Loveland and Barner don't make the 2 drops. Those were key plays and JJ hit them both in stride for explosive plays. You leave those on the table and yes, the statline obviously takes a hit, but more importantly the defense likely doesn't think twice about their approach (if they even would in the first place **cough, cough 2022 OSU, cough, cough**).

I gotta give props to Cornelius Johnson too. The man is basically forgotten for the first 11 games, and then comes up huge when the yards are harder to come by against OSU and Iowa. He has excellent hands and a good catch radius, even if he can't get great separation. On that note, I love Roman Wilson and think he's a big talent, but his limitations were on full display in this one.

Lots of credit goes to Iowa's D. That's a really strong unit ranked #2 in SP+ (behind your Michigan Wolverines!). Looking ahead to Bama a bit, Defensive SP+ rankings (thru CCGs) is as follows:

1. Michigan - 7.4
2. Iowa - 8.1
3. OSU - 8.8
4. PSU - 9.4
5. UGA - 13
...
9. Bama - 15.4

FWIW, on offense Michigan is 10th (37.6) and Bama is 11th (37.1). Overall SP+, Michigan is 1st (32.1) and Bama is 7th (23.7). So the stats like Michigan more than Bama, but those stats are all about telling you how a team would be expected to perform against an average team on a neutral field. Matchups play a much bigger part and aren't terribly insightful with respect to a single game.

With Bama, I want to take a look at how they performed once they turned it on (after Milroe's benching, I think?). Especially against top 10 and top 20 units. So their game against Texas might expose a weakness, but I think it's equally important to check and see if that weakness has been tightened up, especially if looking at their O.
Bama did a really good job keeping the Texas running game in check (37 carries for 105 yards, held Brooks to 57 on 14 carries), but they got picked apart by Ewers (24/38, 349 yards, 3 TDs). Bama also failed to record a sack in that game (Texas sacked Milroe 5 times in comparison). Alabama has given up 3.7 YPC on the year, but they gave up 206 yards on just 24 carries to LSU and 244 yards on 42 carries to Auburn... but held UGA to only 78 yards on 31 carries and Ole Miss to 56 yards on 29 carries. They're giving up 4.9 yards per play and 18.4 PPG (17th in FBS), good figures but they don't really stack up to the elite defenses of the Saban dynasty.

The offense looks good (35.1 PPG, 6.4 yards per play), but not quite as explosive as the Bryce Young/Tua offenses. Michigan will have to deal with a good running QB, something they haven't really had to deal with much of this year (save for Haarberg and Wimsatt, but neither of them are functional passers). Michigan did have some issues containing Allar. Apart from that, Bama's running game doesn't look like it's anything special. They're averaging 4.3 YPC and there is some sack yardage to account for (43 for 311 yards), but McClellan and Wiilliams are averaging around 5 YPC and one of those guys is injured. Bama had under 3.5 YPC against Texas/Ole MIss/A&M/Tennessee/UGA. Alabama's passing game struggled early, but it's been pretty steady since the Milroe benching (did go 10/21 against Arky, but it still came with 238 yards and 2 scores). As stated before, they have struggled to keep Milroe protected so hopefully the DL can make an impact there. This isn't the Alabama of 2019 where you had to account for Jeudy/Smith/Ruggs/Waddle and Najee Harris (that offense averaged 7.9 yards per PLAY), nor is this the stubborn and overmatched Don Brown defense of 2019.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/alabama/2023/gamelog/
 
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Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
73,521
Ann Arbor received NCAA notice for a Level
I violation and four Level II violations about recruiting during Covid-19 dead period.
Per Rittenberg/ESPN
 

Granite Sox

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2003
5,069
The Granite State
i believe these were the official letters. This has been known for a while. Nothing the staff hasn’t been managing for months. Did not deter the team during the early signing period.
 

thehitcat

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2003
2,385
Windham, ME
What a team! What a win! Won the game in the trenches. I thought after Auburn ran all over ‘Bama that they were susceptible and our D was even better than I thought they’d be.
 

Eric1984

my real name is Ben
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2001
2,870
I'm elated. At the same time, the awful special teams play and the screwups have me a little nervous. But if they stick to what's worked all year and avoid the temptation to get gimmicky like the offense did most of the 2nd half, I've got big optimism for next week.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,612
Hingham, MA
I'm elated. At the same time, the awful special teams play and the screwups have me a little nervous. But if they stick to what's worked all year and avoid the temptation to get gimmicky like the offense did most of the 2nd half, I've got big optimism for next week.
Hopefully by finally winning a CFP game, they can relax a bit and feel like they can just play their game.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,272
Hopefully by finally winning a CFP game, they can relax a bit and feel like they can just play their game.
Texas ran the ball well. I think Mich should be able to play a ball control game with Corum and force Penix to basically throw a Deshaun Watson game up there to win. Really like the Wolverines’ chances in this one.
 

Eric1984

my real name is Ben
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2001
2,870
Me too. Bama's receivers had a very hard time getting open downfield. Penix has an absolutely elite arm, but if Michigan's secondary can bottle up the U-Dub receivers the same way, Penix isn't the same kind of running threat as Millroe when everyone is coveres.

I'm still already nervous.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
9,245
South of North
What a fucking game! I started rewatching last night and still got nervous before kickoff. On the rewatch, I'm opting for the skycam broadcast and I have to say that it's 3563586356x better than the traditional broadcast. This is in no small part to the fact that there's no announcers (I think Herbstreit is OK, but at this point he's MILES behind Klatt), and you hear the college bands instead. The bands are a big reason why I prefer the college game to pro.

I also stayed up and watched the other semi because I was still wired to the hilt. What stood out to me about Washington is that the O gets the ball out FAST. And they do it successfully because their receivers get separation early and Penix didn't have to read defenses much.

I also think I just secured my ticket for next Monday, so I'll be in the house. Let me know if any other Wolverines or SoSHers are in Houston!
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
9,245
South of North
Through meditation, McCarthy said, he has found a calm before the game that has transferred over into the game. He doesn't dwell on mistakes, stays positive no matter the situation and relishes in his teammates' success around him instead of focusing on his own accolades.

But it might be the only thing Harbaugh and McCarthy disagree about.

"I brought [meditation] up to him once and I was like, yeah, he's not going to buy into it at all," McCarthy said. "He said, 'It's pretty much just listening to your thoughts the whole time?' I said yes, but you want to quiet your thoughts as much as possible and the observation and awareness of them quiets them. He was just like, 'Yeah, I think I do enough of that already.'"
[gigglesnort]