Maybe they dump the story about 20 minutes before the start of the 1st semifinal game tonight? It'd be hard for ESPN and CBS to shift gears when they are running a countdown to tip off clock.
#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
Just because it hasn't been dumped on a Friday yet, doesn't mean that it won't be a Friday news dump. Based on Goodell's history, it's a good bet.E5 Yaz said:
We have to remember, we are talking about potentially slightly deflated footballs here. The investigation is going to take some time.
Just watched the replay of the Super Bowl. Michaels and Collinsworth both have a conversation about how they are glad they story took a back seat for 3 hours so everyone could focus on the game, then I think they said, "but its going to be big in a few days." That was February 1st. A few days? Not on Wells' hourly.
Can we get a poll to predict outcome?
My vote: Wells report says no evidence of Patriots misconduct. No punishment. Kensil and other league employees fired for disrupting the game at halftime and bungling the measurements.
My vote: Wells report says no evidence of Patriots misconduct. No punishment. Kensil and other league employees fired for disrupting the game at halftime and bungling the measurements.
I'm due to re-watch it yet again soon...but IIRC, I thought they (at least Collinsworth) kept bringing it up during the game as it got into the 4th quarter. I think I kept thinking that if it amounts to nothing, then they should edit out that audio for future replays as it would keep the non-story from ever going away.PaulinMyrBch said:
I like the poll idea. And this is the best possible outcome, although I fear some type of punishment just because of how big it got. But if there's no evidence, I agree this should be the result. And I don't see Kraft letting this go, as the Patriots brand is at stake in his mind. I really hope this is the case. The longer it drags out, the better these chances are I think.crystalline said:
This one was ill-attendedValek123 said:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/87731-ballghazi-or-ballmageddon-news-only-thread/#entry5889762
(Possibly because of the orders-of-magnitude gap between the amount of news available, and the amount of commentary)
Florio states my fear that the Ex Jets/Rams in high NFL positions will steer any findings to be antagonistic to the Patriots. My hope has always been that the Wells investigation/report would uncover any bias in the office of the NFL towards the Patriots and fairly conclude the Patriots simply submitted their footballs at the lowest legal PSI.
"Even though the Patriots remain steadfast regarding their innocence, they’re smart enough to realize that what they believe and what the league concludes may conflict, especially given the strong possibility that one or more employees of the league office will feel compelled to find wrongdoing in order to justify the entire excursion."
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/06/with-draft-approaching-deflategate-ruling-becomes-more-important/
"Even though the Patriots remain steadfast regarding their innocence, they’re smart enough to realize that what they believe and what the league concludes may conflict, especially given the strong possibility that one or more employees of the league office will feel compelled to find wrongdoing in order to justify the entire excursion."
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/06/with-draft-approaching-deflategate-ruling-becomes-more-important/
So Florio is saying that Goodell will ignore whatever is in the Wells report solely to satisfy the ambitions of an insignificant number of fungible league operatives? That doesn't seem very smart unless you have ambitions of taking a dysfunctional organization and making it more dysfunctional.
Who knows. But I doubt that Goodell thinks of the league as dysfunctional or is concerned about his position within it. Despite all the bad press (and perhaps, perversely, as a consequence of it) the league continues to print money. Its strategy of stonewalling until it cannot stonewall, and then making hollow, condescending gestures of recalcitrance seems to be working like a charm.lexrageorge said:
Soooo .. Silly question (I think .. Maybe not) .. Throughout this thread the incident is referred to by posters as either deflategate or ballghazi .. Now .. I am wondering as to the reasons for favouring one or the other.
Is it a political choice (republican scandal vs. A democratic one) or an age/generational thing? Or some combination of the two? Inquiring minds would like to know.
Is it a political choice (republican scandal vs. A democratic one) or an age/generational thing? Or some combination of the two? Inquiring minds would like to know.
I think it's more likely the Wells report will be influenced by the NFL than the NFL will punish the Pats if the report says they are clean.lexrageorge said:
Remember a NFL VP is a co-investigator. If Goodell really wanted to influence the report he could presumably do so.
I still think Goodell is not going to punish Kraft barring strong evidence. If the Wells report is selectively reported to make the Pats look bad, I think Kraft is going to make Roger's life difficult.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Having lived here since Page 1, it was definitely "generational". Appending "gate" to every scandal is pathetically non-original, and was so noted.
Political or generational? This is a silly football scandal...I don't think either apply. Watergate is so famous and Benghazi so recent that everyone knows both.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
From my point of view, Deflategate was picked up early in the media. Ballghazi is a bit more creative, as Kull points out, but it came along slightly later when Deflategate had a full head of steam. I could have gone either way, but if you mention Ballghazi outside of this forum, 95% of people are going to wonder what you are talking about.
I voted Draft Day because it will be completely buried. If it's not Draft Day, it wouldn't surprise me to do it the day after. You get the Friday news dump and everyone will be talking about the first round and getting ready for Friday night's portion of the draft.
Ballghazi fits better because it's a nothingburger blown out of proportion by agenda-driven arm waving. Watergate was an actual scandal.
Post draft.
They will concoct some finding on the Patriots and take away one of their picks in next year's draft (a FA compensatory pick? Tampering pick awarded for Revis?) to give the public impression that the Pats are culpable in some way without incrementally hurting their number of draft selections. Clean up multiple investigations in one fell swoop. Good for Goodell/NFL; bad for everyone else.
(I am not saying this is proper AT ALL... I'm merely describing a plausibly screwball NFL action)
They will concoct some finding on the Patriots and take away one of their picks in next year's draft (a FA compensatory pick? Tampering pick awarded for Revis?) to give the public impression that the Pats are culpable in some way without incrementally hurting their number of draft selections. Clean up multiple investigations in one fell swoop. Good for Goodell/NFL; bad for everyone else.
(I am not saying this is proper AT ALL... I'm merely describing a plausibly screwball NFL action)
The more I look at this, the fewer options Wells actually has.
1. Patriots DEFLATED balls after they were inspected by the refs (Unlikely) - PATRIOTS ARE GUILTY
2. Patriots submitted UNDER INFLATED balls, but the refs did not use a gauge to check the balls and they slipped through inspection. - EVERYONE IS GUILTY
3. Patriots submitted PROPERLY INFLATED balls, refs checked them with gauge, and atmospheric conditions accounted for the under inflation at halftime. - NOBODY GUILTY
4. Patriots likely submitted PROPERLY INFLATED ball, refs did not use a gauge to check them, and atmospheric conditions likely accounted for under inflation. - EVERYONE LOOKS BAD.
Is there another possibility?
1. Patriots DEFLATED balls after they were inspected by the refs (Unlikely) - PATRIOTS ARE GUILTY
2. Patriots submitted UNDER INFLATED balls, but the refs did not use a gauge to check the balls and they slipped through inspection. - EVERYONE IS GUILTY
3. Patriots submitted PROPERLY INFLATED balls, refs checked them with gauge, and atmospheric conditions accounted for the under inflation at halftime. - NOBODY GUILTY
4. Patriots likely submitted PROPERLY INFLATED ball, refs did not use a gauge to check them, and atmospheric conditions likely accounted for under inflation. - EVERYONE LOOKS BAD.
Is there another possibility?
PaulinMyrBch said:
Maybe I have't had enough caffeine, but why do the NEPs look bad in Scenario 4? They're not responsible for step 2 (refs screwed up) and step 3 (atmospheric deflation).
Christ, Wells will find Judge Crater before he resolves this fiasco.
This seems about right, although I am not sure # 2 is really possible as a conclusion for the report. If the Patriots submitted under inflated balls there would be no way to confirm the initial submission problem precisely because it is the responsibility of the refs to confirm the ball pressure, not the team.
So isn't #2 related to #3 and should read: "The Patriots properly submitted footballs, but the refs did not use a gauge to check the balls and so there is no evidence that the balls were under inflated until halftime at which point atmospheric conditions are a possible factor."
I suppose that you could imagine that the Patriots were willfully submitting balls under 12.5, employing a gauge to get under the limit, but it makes far more sense to imagine that the Patriots don't use a gauge at all since it is the officials who are responsible for the gauging. The Patriots are responsible for picking balls they want and submitting them in a timely fashion, nothing else. This is the whole, 'just do your job' organization right? It is not the Pat's job.
So isn't #2 related to #3 and should read: "The Patriots properly submitted footballs, but the refs did not use a gauge to check the balls and so there is no evidence that the balls were under inflated until halftime at which point atmospheric conditions are a possible factor."
I suppose that you could imagine that the Patriots were willfully submitting balls under 12.5, employing a gauge to get under the limit, but it makes far more sense to imagine that the Patriots don't use a gauge at all since it is the officials who are responsible for the gauging. The Patriots are responsible for picking balls they want and submitting them in a timely fashion, nothing else. This is the whole, 'just do your job' organization right? It is not the Pat's job.
The idea that the NFL, if it gets a report from Wells that cannot establish the Patriots did anything wrong and still crush them is odd to me. If they were going to do that they didn't even need an investigation.
Oh, and I may not be around Friday, can someone help me out and post "Friday news dump?" for me now? Thanks.
Oh, and I may not be around Friday, can someone help me out and post "Friday news dump?" for me now? Thanks.
DrewDawg said:
It was their first big scandal since Ray Rice. Their first priority was establishing to the public that they would now go about its investigations the right way. In that regard, it's entirely plausible that even if they had smoking gun evidence of wrongdoing or absolution, Goodell would have commissioned the report, anyway.
Also: Wells has no authority to punish, or suggest punishment. The NFL will get his report (co-drafted by the NFL) and the NFL will weigh the pros and cons of punishing the Patriots in light of it. Wells isn't a judge or an arbitrator. The NFL can still be as draconian or lenient as they want to be, regardless of the report. The report will merely provide them with the cover to say that the decision was based on a thorough investigation, and so is therefore sufficiently supported.
Isn't a 5th possibility that someone in the NFL FO (Kensil) went rogue and kept any investigation / complaints leading up to the game between himself, the Referee and the Colts front office? Kensil had to know Ginger was having dinner the night before with Kraft and sponsors, so perhaps he didn't want to let the Commish know for fear of a leak to Kraft.
It's been speculated that only one ball was dramatically under and the rest were marginally and that ball was the one intercepted by the Colts and handed off to Kensil.
Being from RI, I am used to and frankly expect those in power to abuse it somehow, so I am clinging to the hope that the delay in announcing the findings is the NFL is trying to figure out a way to save face in light of one of their own manipulating rules or "evidence." Has anyone working for the NFL ever been fired, outside of the kid stealing and selling game balls, for abusing their position or breaking rules?
It's been speculated that only one ball was dramatically under and the rest were marginally and that ball was the one intercepted by the Colts and handed off to Kensil.
Being from RI, I am used to and frankly expect those in power to abuse it somehow, so I am clinging to the hope that the delay in announcing the findings is the NFL is trying to figure out a way to save face in light of one of their own manipulating rules or "evidence." Has anyone working for the NFL ever been fired, outside of the kid stealing and selling game balls, for abusing their position or breaking rules?
#2 is the Bill Nye option. It takes into account Wells doesn't believe the science and that the balls must have been under 2 hours before gametime.wiffleballhero said:
My speculation on that one is that Wells basically says Pats "likely" submitted the balls at correct pressure and that the NFL drops ball on confirming that fact. But anything that clouds the picture is going to look bad because the media and haters will go off and just discount the possibility that we could have followed the rules properly.Otis Foster said:
The Patriots had under inflated balls on the field. How that came to pass, was there intent and other questions are important for the severity of the punishment. But, at the end, they will get some sort of a punishment no matter what, IMO, and that is what will be pointed to. I think there is a 0.1% chance that they get nothing short of the measurements being wrong... which is impossible to know because they don't track such things.
I'm actually pretty surprised at how well the NFL is keeping this under wraps without any significant leaks.
There's little doubt that the NFL knows the results of investigation, at least preliminarily, and has for some time -- the bulk of the information that matters has probably been known for a month or more. At this point, I'm sure it's just tying up loose ends and wordsmithing, all of which can take time. Every witness you talk to has the potential to lead to two more you didn't know about -- even if it's on a minor point -- and then you have to coordinate schedules, look at e-mails and documents, etc. Part of me hopes that if the Patriots were going to get severely whacked, they'd have sent that up as a trial balloon because if there's anything close to a smoking gun, the NFL would have known about it for months now. Ultimately, though, this sort of tea leaf reading is useless. We'll know when we know.
There's little doubt that the NFL knows the results of investigation, at least preliminarily, and has for some time -- the bulk of the information that matters has probably been known for a month or more. At this point, I'm sure it's just tying up loose ends and wordsmithing, all of which can take time. Every witness you talk to has the potential to lead to two more you didn't know about -- even if it's on a minor point -- and then you have to coordinate schedules, look at e-mails and documents, etc. Part of me hopes that if the Patriots were going to get severely whacked, they'd have sent that up as a trial balloon because if there's anything close to a smoking gun, the NFL would have known about it for months now. Ultimately, though, this sort of tea leaf reading is useless. We'll know when we know.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Why would you assume this?
I kind of assume the opposite. If the NFL knew something, the public would know something. I assumed that the lack of leaks means that the Wells crew is doing their job appropriately.
Exactly.yecul said:
The level of proof will affect the severity of the punishment. But Goodell will do something here unless there is direct evidence that someone other than the Pats deflated the balls.
The ONLY hope I have for there being no penalty absent smoking gun evidence in the Pats' favor is if Wells spends a lot of time in the report on the notion that the entire testing process was flawed, not recorded in an organized way and as a result, inherently unreliable. Wells could do this. It would be a lawyerly way to analyze the situation. But Wells also wants the next assignment and so organizing the report could jeopardize that.
Absent a smoking gun that directly implicates either the Pats (ballboy deliberately deflated balls after refs measurement) or the NFL (some random NFL dude or Colts/Jets fan snuck onto sidelines with needle and depressurized the game balls), I would guess the best case scenario from the Pats perspective is that the Wells report basically concludes:
- no evidence of wrongdoing or tampering with the balls by any party; and
- based on expert analysis, the difference in atmospheric conditions between field and locker room could plausibly cause the balls to be under pressure, and likely did in this case.
In that case, Goodell could theoretically use his "I don't need hard evidence to punish violators when it comes to the integrity of the game" meme and still punish the Pats. But I still say in that case Kraft could use the Wells report to fight the punishment, and will do so, even if it means going nuclear.
I still say that Goodell doesn't have to go down the punishment path in those circumstances. The Wells report can put enough cover to absolve the game officials and league office of any negligence or incompetence, and can suggest new procedures to avoid any questions going forward. There's really no need for Goodell to pander to the Jets fans that park the cars for the VIP visitors to the league office.
The problems start if the Wells report concludes that "while it's possible for the balls to deflate due to atmospheric conditions, we find that the degree of deflation that occurred means that some tampering was likely". Then it gets ugly.
- no evidence of wrongdoing or tampering with the balls by any party; and
- based on expert analysis, the difference in atmospheric conditions between field and locker room could plausibly cause the balls to be under pressure, and likely did in this case.
In that case, Goodell could theoretically use his "I don't need hard evidence to punish violators when it comes to the integrity of the game" meme and still punish the Pats. But I still say in that case Kraft could use the Wells report to fight the punishment, and will do so, even if it means going nuclear.
I still say that Goodell doesn't have to go down the punishment path in those circumstances. The Wells report can put enough cover to absolve the game officials and league office of any negligence or incompetence, and can suggest new procedures to avoid any questions going forward. There's really no need for Goodell to pander to the Jets fans that park the cars for the VIP visitors to the league office.
The problems start if the Wells report concludes that "while it's possible for the balls to deflate due to atmospheric conditions, we find that the degree of deflation that occurred means that some tampering was likely". Then it gets ugly.
yecul said:
We're really going in circles now, but if that's the route he wanted to go, he wouldn't have brought Wells in. If science backs the Patriots theory, and that much is found in the Wells report, he's not going to punish the Patriots based solely on footballs being underinflated. He just won't. Kraft would win the appeal in a heartbeat.
I doubt you'd see a tampering was likely line, but there may well be something like "the footballs, as measured at halftime, were below what scientists found should have been at a 12.5 PSI level. However, without any documentation by officials pregame, it's impossible to say whether the footballs were intentionally deflated before or after after being measured, or whether the Patriots unknowingly handed the footballs a bit below the PSI limit and the officials never properly inflated them. It's also possible that human error in measuring the footballs contributed to lower PSI levels than should have been recorded."
I think that is the worst case scenario the Pats are looking at right now, in terms of facts. Quite frankly, I tend to doubt any pubishment from that type of conclusion would be upheld on appeal, either. Maybe he'd still try it to save face with the public (I don't think he will), but he'd probably have to go severe in that case if he wants to help his case. Either he goes all in and concludes they cheated, or he doesn't. It would like bad on appeal if it was kind of a halfway punishment, because it gives credence to the Pats on appeal that the guy was just taking a complete guess.
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
I assume the lack of leaks also means that Kensil has been remove from the loop and (fanboy now speaking) has become a person of interest and the investigation which should have been completed sometime ago is trying to figure out how to handle the conspiracy.
Goodell had no choice but to bring in a third party to render a report. After the Ray Rice fiasco and in light of the Miami investigation, and given the magnitude of the public and media reaction to the deflated balls story, the NFL conducting its own investigation would have been a screaming PR disaster. Goodell also needed distance between himself and one of the owners. As a result, drawing conclusions from the fact that Goodell went the only route he could possibly go is weird science, indeed.Ed Hillel said:
Goodell could be of the mindset that the only way the Pats will escape punishment is if Wells totally exonerates them and still have ordered the report. Those two things hang together just fine.
Assuming otherwise ignores the context within which he ordered it in the first place. It also presumes that he is looking at the report as something that will bind him if Wells does not unearth clear evidence in any direction, and there's no reason to believe he is looking at the report in that manner.
Ed Hillel said:
Irrelevant. The Colts balls were not underinflated. There is no recorded evidence of the PSI to start the game. So there is no way to prove that they started lower than the Colts and so forth.
I will be surprised if they skate. I will be surprised if intent is found.
The Patriots' undoing here is the complete lack of a process and recording of said process. It's half assed and hardly understood. That will be the discovery more than anything IMO, but it will only serve to shield them from a severe punishment. At the end of the day NE's balls were low and Indy's were not. Something will be handed down even if it's just a token fine. Just my opinion on the matter.
That's where I've been since Day 1. The Pats will somehow be held responsible for the under-inflation, by way of "spirit of the rules"/"spirit of the game"/"Pats should have known better" regardless of what is specifically written or not written in the rules.yecul said:
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
I guess I'm assuming it because it's a joint investigation between Wells and the NFL's General Counsel, Jeff Pash, who sits down the hall from Goodell. Also, it's not uncommon to keep the client apprised of major developments during an internal investigation, unless there's some concern of illegal conduct or disclosure could compromise the investigation. I wouldn't be surprised if, after the early leaks, the control group with access inside the NFL is small -- although everyone who gets interviewed has information at least about what questions are being asked -- but I would be extremely surprised if Goodell has not received frequent updates from Pash.
In recent discussion here everyone seems to be forgetting about the NFL employee who was fired for trying to steal the kicking ball, which apparently led to the halftime Kensil check of the balls. Likewise, what about the Shefter report that only one ball was significantly below and all the other balls were "just a few ticks under," easily explained by atmospheric conditions? What about that the only ball that was significantly under pressure was last held by the Colts after it was measured? What about the fact that the Panthers/Vikings (not remembering now whether those were the two teams) got no punishment from the NFL for warming the balls on the sideline in November, clearly as equally egregious as letting air out of balls? None of what I just wrote is new information, but I can't see how the Pats get ANY punishment with just one of what I just recounted is fact. If all of these items are correct, and absent a "smoking gun" like video of someone letting air out of the balls on the sideline but maybe even then, there's just no way.
While we'd all be shocked if the NFL found the proverbial smoking gun evidence of ball tampering, I could definitely see the Patriots getting dinged for their ball attendant taking the balls into the bathroom, even if it was for just 90+ seconds. That could very well prove to be all the league needs to say that while they can't prove the Patriots tampered with the balls, the fact that this guy took them to the bathroom and then they measured under regulation at halftime is enough to cast doubt as to whether the Patriots did or did not do something.
If its 2.....isnt it the Refs responsibility (per the rule) to Say "Hey....these are under inflated.....we better pump them up". if they didnt, thats on them. You cant use a game as a "Sting Operation" certainly not a playoff game. Thats like using your Prod for Test purposes (for all us IT geeks).
If they found that every game the Pats did this....then they shouldnt have said "ok....THIS time we will catch them....we will let them through and then slam them!" They SHOULD have said in a memo...."Look...you guys are repeatedly submitting under inflated balls. Knock it off. The Refs are getting tired of catching you and having to fix it (which they SHOULD have been doing). If we continue to have to have the Refs rectify this there will be a $50K fine for every game we notice you submitting under inflated balls.....AND they will be inflated to the correct amount anyway."
This ALL comes back to the Refs. The had the ULTIMATE responsibility to ensure that the Balls used in the games met regulations. If they didnt do it.....its not the Pats fault.
Too me this is like Holding.....if they do it....its up to the Refs to catch it and or call it/rectify it. In this case the "punishment" per the rule was to have the Refs insure that the Pressure was within the rule before the game.
Why even have the pregame check if they dont use it to rectify issues. "Hey this is wrong......Guess we let them play..."
So if its 2 then
The only way the Pats are guilty is if they did #1.
I mentioned awhile back if I where the Patriots from here on out I would do the following. Submit totally deflated Balls. Like literally flat. Have Tom pick his 12 Balls....then Remove all the Air, put them in a bag and bring them to the refs. If they gave me grief I would say "Look I want to make sure that the Balls we use are within the Guidelines prescribed. If you, the Refs, fill them to the Proper Legal PSI then I know there can be no question that I am within the rules. No question about Gauges or temperature differences in dressing rooms. No possibility of Saunas or Dryers. No question that any discrepancy has to be either environmental or a punctured ball. Fill them to what you mandate. We simply play with them."