Devers called up to Majors

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Historically, Devers' plate discipline has been rather poor. Plus he's 20, and has never faced MLB quality breaking pitches.

I frankly do not expect more than a .260/.300/.380 line from Devers this season. Sadly, that's better than I expect out of any of the other options than Lin, whose swing path looked good for contact in MLB, although it also looked like it would limit him to 3-5 HR per 600 PA.

I don't really understand this move, to be honest. The Sox need a middle of the order bat, but it's unreasonable to think a 20 year old just out of AA is going to provide that.
I agree, but I'm hoping the plan is to get a middle of the order bat in addition to fixing third base. Bruce? Duda? That way, we can sit the fetid corpse of Mitch Moreland, use Hanley at 1st, and still have better production at third then what we've been getting.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Rutledge would head to Albuquerque and would not even have to be on Colorado's 40 man roster. I think he's easily worth a spot on their AAA team, so if the Sox want to keep him their have to work out a trade.
I didn't realize he doesn't have to go on the 40 man if returned. In that case, yeah, Colorado will want him.

To stay in Boston, they'll have to send down Marrero and/or DL Boegarts.
 

drbretto

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I'm pretty sure when BrandonChristiansen said "that's nuts", he means "That's very impressive".

You guys are like piranhas. Have some faith in your fellow SoSHers.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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But where is the middle of the order bat who can play 3rd? That person just isn't out there. I think the move is for a 1B now.
If the move will be for a 1B, why not recall Lin, who was quite decent in a platoon role with Marrero in the 9th spot as table-setters for Mookie?

Devers is definitely the best long-term 3B option out there, by far. But I don't see why the point of emphasis hasn't remained where it was earlier in the season -- on the long-term.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Because Lin doesn't hit for power which the team needs? There's also a decent likelihood that Lin isn't able to maintain his offensive output and becomes an offensive black hole like Marrero once the book is out on him.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Historically, Devers' plate discipline has been rather poor. Plus he's 20, and has never faced MLB quality breaking pitches.

I frankly do not expect more than a .260/.300/.380 line from Devers this season. Sadly, that's better than I expect out of any of the other options than Lin, whose swing path looked good for contact in MLB, although it also looked like it would limit him to 3-5 HR per 600 PA.

I don't really understand this move, to be honest. The Sox need a middle of the order bat, but it's unreasonable to think a 20 year old just out of AA is going to provide that.
What is the bold based on? He's consistently had strikeout rates in the 16-17% range in the minors, and for walk rates, last year in Salem he was at 7.3% and this year in Portland he got that up to 9.7%. That's trending in the right direction. I don't see any evidence that he's had trouble with discipline since 2015 when he posted a 4.7% walk rate in Greenville over 508 PAs. Am I missing a report from this year that suggests his increase in walk rate is due to something other than an improvement in discipline, like him being passive at the plate (doesn't jive with the increase in HRs) or pitchers staying much further away from the plate against him this year making it easier to lay off non-strikes?

9.7% would put him in the same range as JBJ, Kole Calhoun, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Altuve for walk rates in the majors. Even if he dips a bit (which is probably not unlikely) you're looking at hitters like Ozuna, Villar, and Lindor. I don't think I'd classify any of them as poor discipline hitters.

As for what to expect, I think setting the bar higher than a league average bat (100 wRC+ or OPS+) is probably setting yourself up for disappointment, but I think he has a pretty good chance to be in that range (so between 90 and 110 somewhere). The power will show up here and there, but probably won't be consistent until next year some time, and even then, maybe not until late in the year.

Anyway, as it looks like he'll be platooned, I wrote a quick article about the pros and cons of that approach for the dot com. It can be found here for anyone interested:

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/red-sox-platoon-rafael-devers/

Also, Jessica Brand was at McCoy for his last game there and wrote about the experience. That can be found here:

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/my-day-with-rafael-devers/
 

geoduck no quahog

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Question:

If the choice were:

(1) Improve 3B, particularly with power, live with Moreland's decline and keep Marrero as the defensive infield backup...or

(2) Improve 1B (absolutely with power), live with Marrero as the everyday 3B and lose Moreland to some transactional thing

which makes more sense? I know there are a thousand other iterations.

Given the marketplace (and no Moustakas) - I'd go for the 1B replacement as the only realistic way to get some more power into the lineup and protect the 1-4'ish hitters.
 

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snowmanny

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As was pointed out up thread, this team does not have a history of using the Longoria/Bryant strategy of calling up a top prospect a few weeks into a season to save an extra year of team control, although the front office (but not ownership, which may be the determining factor here) has turned over since X came up. Is the likely incremental difference between Devers and Holt, for the rest of this year, worth losing a year of team control? And as for X, one could argue, given his 2014 season, that he was rushed.
Re:Bogaerts he wasn't rushed in that it was good he was on the team in 2013 and helped them win a title. The issue was in 2014 in that, yes, given how poorly he hit AND that the team finished last AND that there was/is a 0.01% chance of an extension, it is too bad they chose to not send him down for awhile and instead they burned control of Xander's 2020 season for essentially nothing.

So maybe Devers comes up now and goes back down for the start of next year. (I think the White Sox delayed Moncada's promotion enough to keep him under a service year at the end of this year even with his time in Boston in 2016, for example).
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Snod, your expectation that Devers will maintain his average walk rate as a 20 year old in his first call up is totally unreasonable. Taking two of your examples - JBJ had an .097 isoD in MiLB that included a .115 isoD in A-A+ in 2012. Lindor had an .075 isoD in MiLB that included a .079 isoD in A+-AA in 2013.

As a 24 year old rookie JBJ's isoD dropped to .067, approximately .030 worse than his career MiLB line. That has risen to .075 this season after almost 1500 MLB plate appearances.

As a 21 year old rookie, Lindor's isoD dropped to .040, or .035 worse than his career MiLB line. That has risen to .060 this season after about 1000 MLB plate appearances, so improved but still not at baseline.

Currently, Devers has accumulated a .058 isoD. Dropping that by .030 makes it a .028 isoD. For reference, Pablo Sandoval had a .047 isoD in his terrible 2015.

I have long thought Devers would, if given sufficient time and opportunity to struggle and develop at the MLB level, become Big Papi's successor in the lineup. However, David Ortiz had a .082 isoD in the minors before his rookie season at age 22.

To this point, Devers' .058 is most comparable to Will Middlebrooks' career MiLB .055 isoD. I'm a believer, but would have liked to see him get more time to mature as a hitter in AAA.
 

BaseballJones

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So hard to predict what he will do with the major league club. But I think it's not unreasonable to think that he will at least represent a decent upgrade offensively from what they've had all year long.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Snod, your expectation that Devers will maintain his average walk rate as a 20 year old in his first call up is totally unreasonable. Taking two of your examples - JBJ had an .097 isoD in MiLB that included a .115 isoD in A-A+ in 2012. Lindor had an .075 isoD in MiLB that included a .079 isoD in A+-AA in 2013.

As a 24 year old rookie JBJ's isoD dropped to .067, approximately .030 worse than his career MiLB line. That has risen to .075 this season after almost 1500 MLB plate appearances.

As a 21 year old rookie, Lindor's isoD dropped to .040, or .035 worse than his career MiLB line. That has risen to .060 this season after about 1000 MLB plate appearances, so improved but still not at baseline.

Currently, Devers has accumulated a .058 isoD. Dropping that by .030 makes it a .028 isoD. For reference, Pablo Sandoval had a .047 isoD in his terrible 2015.

I have long thought Devers would, if given sufficient time and opportunity to struggle and develop at the MLB level, become Big Papi's successor in the lineup. However, David Ortiz had a .082 isoD in the minors before his rookie season at age 22.

To this point, Devers' .058 is most comparable to Will Middlebrooks' career MiLB .055 isoD. I'm a believer, but would have liked to see him get more time to mature as a hitter in AAA.
He's also seen a steady increase in that number over the last three years as he's moved up from level to level, as they've been aggressively pushing him through the system.

2015 (Greenville) - 0.042
2016 (Salem) - 0.053
2017 (Portland) - 0.069

You'll forgive me for not including his 8 games in Pawtucket as a meaningful sample. And no, I'm not suggesting it will go up again at the major league level, but I think assuming a .030 drop is fairly ridiculous given how he's progressed the last three years.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Because Lin doesn't hit for power which the team needs? There's also a decent likelihood that Lin isn't able to maintain his offensive output and becomes an offensive black hole like Marrero once the book is out on him.
Things you might not be considering: (a) Devers won't provide the power the Sox are need as he'll be platooned and hitting in the bottom of the lineup; (b) Marrero is actually improving at the plate as he gets more at bats and is being used in a platoon role more often; or (c) there will be a book out soon on Devers, too.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Things you might not be considering: (a) Devers won't provide the power the Sox are need as he'll be platooned and hitting in the bottom of the lineup; (b) Marrero is actually improving at the plate as he gets more at bats and is being used in a platoon role more often; or (c) there will be a book out soon on Devers, too.
Are you arguing that his power is negated because of his placement in the lineup?

I see the platoon as an enormous positive for this year.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Are you arguing that his power is negated because of his placement in the lineup?

No, I'm saying that his good power, if it is coupled with (as I expect) below league average OBP numbers and placed in the bottom of the lineup, will have less overall impact on the run-scoring performance of this year's Red Sox than adding a high-BA high-OBP hitter in the middle of the lineup would (for example like a Buster Posey type hitter -- not that he is or should be a target).

Batting lower in the order should have little if any effect on Devers' power. But what the Sox need this season is someone who approximates what they hoped Hanley would be. Devers appears to me the round peg for a square hole in 2017, although I (again, repeating myself) am high on his long-term future in MLB.
 

Lowrielicious

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No, I'm saying that his good power, if it is coupled with (as I expect) below league average OBP numbers and placed in the bottom of the lineup, will have less overall impact on the run-scoring performance of this year's Red Sox than adding a high-BA high-OBP hitter in the middle of the lineup would (for example like a Buster Posey type hitter -- not that he is or should be a target).

Batting lower in the order should have little if any effect on Devers' power. But what the Sox need this season is someone who approximates what they hoped Hanley would be. Devers appears to me the round peg for a square hole in 2017, although I (again, repeating myself) am high on his long-term future in MLB.
He will have less overall impact than adding Mike Trout too. Fortunately the bar isn't quite that high for him to have a positive impact on the offensive output of the team.
The 2017 team has had terrible offense from 3B and lack power overall. Devers plays 3B and has a lot of power potential. There are questions about whether his bat and his glove are ready yet, but at best it's a round peg not yet the same size as the round hole.
 

nothumb

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I don't love this. I have all the hope in the world for Devers but I don't think getting a SLG-heavy .750 OPS with bad defense at 3B will make the difference for this club, and I think that's probably more or less what we'll get this year from him.

If you have Devers as the strong side of the platoon and a bench of Young, backup C, Holt and Marrero, your best lineup vs. RHP right this minute is probably with Holt at 3B and Devers at DH, unless Moreland manages to un-fuck himself rather expeditiously. Meanwhile vs. RHP you are probably rolling with Hanley at 1B and Young at DH with Marrero at 3B.

You've got X looking like he might fade badly due to injuries / whatever. You've got a total black hole at C. At any given time you have maybe one good PH on your bench, and that guy will most likely have a big platoon split. You gain a bit more flexibility once rosters expand, but in the meantime, what you really need, even with Devers, is another IF/DH type with some pop, and you can't add him without stashing somebody on the DL (plus you have to figure out what to do when the playoffs come and you have like 6 guys who need platooning).

I mean I guess the upside is maybe Devers and several others guys get hot at the right time and you add a bit more depth to the pen and you have just enough to ride your starters deep into the playoffs. It could happen, and I'd love to be wrong.
 

Sampo Gida

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Nobody can predict what Devers will do the next 2 months. Nobody. But I boldly predict he will range somewhere between 2016 Gary Sanchez to 2016 Yoan Moncada.

I like his chances better than the Marrero/Holt combo and nobody else out there gets me all that excited (including Todd Frazier).

Hopefully taking care of 3B internally allows DD to use what chips he has to acquire a power bat for 1B/DH and/or even LF (sorry Benny/Chris). Hoping for positive regression from some of these guys is not enough except maybe against the Orioles rotation
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I don't love this. I have all the hope in the world for Devers but I don't think getting a SLG-heavy .750 OPS with bad defense at 3B will make the difference for this club.
It doesn't have to make the difference in order to be a good move. It just has to make a difference (and the difference has to be positive).

You've got X looking like he might fade badly due to injuries / whatever. You've got a total black hole at C. At any given time you have maybe one good PH on your bench, and that guy will most likely have a big platoon split.
Assuming this is all true, how does bringing up Devers make it worse, or make it harder to address?
 

nothumb

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It doesn't have to make the difference in order to be a good move. It just has to make a difference (and the difference has to be positive).


Assuming this is all true, how does bringing up Devers make it worse, or make it harder to address?
I get your point, it's not like they're trading him, and I'm not one of those people who thinks prospects should be cased in glass to avoid spoiling their development. But I do think it's likely he could use a bit more seasoning, and in the long run, rushing him means you replace a low-cost season (or half season, or whatever) of presumably prime production down the road with a half season of hopefully a bit better than a Marrero / Lin platoon now. And there is the possibility that it negatively affects him - I don't want to overstate that because it's not my primary concern, but it's a factor.

I'm not in the hate camp or anything, and like I said, I could easily be wrong and would be happy about it if so. I just think it's a potentially incremental improvement to a team that actually needs three or four of them, and unless those can also be made without mortgaging the future, we'll be paying an opportunity cost with little upside potential.
 

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I get your point, it's not like they're trading him, and I'm not one of those people who thinks prospects should be cased in glass to avoid spoiling their development. But I do think it's likely he could use a bit more seasoning, and in the long run, rushing him means you replace a low-cost season (or half season, or whatever) of presumably prime production down the road with a half season of hopefully a bit better than a Marrero / Lin platoon now. And there is the possibility that it negatively affects him - I don't want to overstate that because it's not my primary concern, but it's a factor.

I'm not in the hate camp or anything, and like I said, I could easily be wrong and would be happy about it if so. I just think it's a potentially incremental improvement to a team that actually needs three or four of them, and unless those can also be made without mortgaging the future, we'll be paying an opportunity cost with little upside potential.
OTOH, if 3B can be upgraded even a little at no cost, that would allow other resources to be allocated to upgrading the other areas in need of improvement, be that 1B, bench, or bullpen.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I'm thinking this is where the Red Sox really miss a guy like Ortiz. Who's the veteran that's going to take this young Dominican under his wing...show him how to act...protect him from the inevitable distractions...

I'm thinking David Ortiz was that guy for most of the kids, particularly (but not exclusively) the Dominican ones. Who's that guy today?
 

nvalvo

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I'm thinking this is where the Red Sox really miss a guy like Ortiz. Who's the veteran that's going to take this young Dominican under his wing...show him how to act...protect him from the inevitable distractions...

I'm thinking David Ortiz was that guy for most of the kids, particularly (but not exclusively) the Dominican ones. Who's that guy today?
Well, Devers was playing cards yesterday in the clubhouse with Bogaerts, Rodriguez and Vazquez.
 

Rasputin

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Based solely on one west coast game most of y'all are missing:

He doesn't seem to have a discipline problem. He's not afraid to attack pitches he thinks he can hit but he's not just hacking.

He seems to be an aware baserunner. He took third on a ball in the dirt that didn't get very far away.

He's made all the plays he's had to including one really hard hit ball that could have eaten him up.

It's one game, yada yada, afternoon game tomorrow.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Fastball outside part, goes straight away, its just insane the amount of raw power he has to all fields. Can't teach that stuff.
 

shaggydog2000

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Fastball outside part, goes straight away, its just insane the amount of raw power he has to all fields. Can't teach that stuff.
That would have been out of every MLB park, except possibly Houston's. But that is debatable because of where exactly it landed. It was definitely not a cheapy.
 

terrynever

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Devers looks a lot like young Robbie Cano, both in body type and batting mechanics. Long way to go but the upside is enormous.
 

Sampo Gida

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Small sample of course but I was impressed with the plate discipline and overall AB's these 2 games. The power is real. Nunez not going to help much power wise i dont think unless he can take advantage of Fenway (which is possible). That said I think if Devers gets sent down that the team has taken a step back.

I'd like to see Nunez take some AB away from XB (hand) and Benintendi (against LHPers) and of course Holt (who looks like a pale skinny Panda out there since his return). Maybe spell Devers at 3B against tough LHPers and as defensive replacement. Doubt this happens
 

SouthernBoSox

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Maybe even more importantly, he looked very nimble in the field.

Far from the disaster that some painted the defense to be.
 

Sprowl

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Devers' toe pivot and ankle turn seem unusually smooth, coherent and well-timed in launching his swing. I'm no keen observer of hitting, but it reminds me of pre-injury Adrian Gonzalez. Toe to ankle to hip to torso to over the centerfield fence.
 

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He obviously loads really well. He's got what I call "controlled violence", meaning he swings as hard as effort allows and is still in control of his swing. All the moving parts, specifically hips and hands are connected through the swing. His timing moves with that toe and getting the foot down are very consistent. Contrast that with swings we see every day, like Vazquez and Marrero, who seem to be swinging about 60% and protecting zones to make contact, and its pretty impressive to see in a young guy. He's a confident hitter. He's got no problem taking those hacks his first week in the bigs, but he probably doesn't know any other way.
 

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He obviously loads really well. He's got what I call "controlled violence", meaning he swings as hard as effort allows and is still in control of his swing. All the moving parts, specifically hips and hands are connected through the swing. His timing moves with that toe and getting the foot down are very consistent. Contrast that with swings we see every day, like Vazquez and Marrero, who seem to be swinging about 60% and protecting zones to make contact, and its pretty impressive to see in a young guy. He's a confident hitter. He's got no problem taking those hacks his first week in the bigs, but he probably doesn't know any other way.
I'm going to steal your 'controlled violence' as it explains Dever's swing perfectly. I showed the HR to my buddy who made it to A+ with the Angels and he literally jumped backwards when he saw the swing. His first comment was "how can a kid that young swing that hard with that bat speed and still control the barrel of the bat?"
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interestingly enough, since I'm sure they'll be compared incessantly throughout their careers, Moncada also hit his first home run Wednesday night. Moncada's drive to center carried 417 feet per Statcast (tm), with an exit velocity of 104.8 mph. He became the first White Sox player to hit his first career homer off of a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher since Josh Phegley against some guy named David Price on July 5, 2013.