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Celtics in 18-19

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by RedOctober3829, May 28, 2018.

  1. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. And I think you accurately called out Rozier's lack of commitment on defense as a part of that. I think that having two 6'9" bigs with short arms has been a real factor as well, but at least this should get better as AB and TL come back.
     
  2. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    p.s., no idea what Theis and Yabusele measured for reach, but they both seem to lack length and certainly have gotten eaten up by everyone 6'10" or greater recently.
     
  3. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Yabusele has a pretty giant wingspan. It was considered one of his strengths in the draft
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm curious why you think he's improving faster than Tatum in playmaking? I haven't seen much improvement from either in that category. At least not consistent.
     
  5. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    7'1 wing span, 8'9 standing reach. He's plenty long enough.
     
  6. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I mean, he's not great, but he's been making an effort to look for passes a lot more on drives, and has started to execute better, gradually. Tatum is completely head-down dribbling right now.
     
  7. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    Kyrie will be back tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if Jaylen and Hayward continue playing with confidence or not.

    Boston Celtics‏Verified account @celtics 2m2 minutes ago
    #NEBHInjuryReport update Kyrie Irving (eye) and Marcus Morris (neck) we’re both full participants in practice today. Brad Stevens says, “Every indication is that [Kyrie] will play” tomorrow, and Morris’ availability will be based on how he feels.
     
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Rozier is fine as 8th man off the bench and essentially the same player he was last year. People just want him to be more than that and he isn't. I agree the team would be better with a real, pass first PG in his place though. Rozier isn't a PG. He's mostly just a volume scorer and if his shot isn't falling, he's not offering much value. He's also a terrible fit in Boston alongside Kyrie and 5 other scorers.

    He's a 6'1 guard with a career shooting % of .378/.356/.772. He's extremely limited.
     
  9. mostman

    mostman Member SoSH Member

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    Wrong thread.
     
  10. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Yeah but he plays with his feet stapled to the ground so he plays much smaller than his length suggests.
     
  11. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    My overall point was that the second unit was giving up rebounds and getting dominated near the rim with Al sitting down and TL/AB out. Theis brings stuff to the table, and Yabusele has been surprisingly ok a couple of times. But I think that a shortage of size and shot-threatening ability hasn't helped the second unit recently.
     
  12. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Rozier's splits suggest that no, he isn't fine off the bench or the same player as last year. We'd love for Rozier to be a computer game where we can plug his starting numbers into his bench minutes but it doesn't always work this way in real life. Rozier will be a starting PG wherever he signs next year for his play as a lead guard over the past two years and is going to be paid pretty handsomely. GM's recognize the predicament he's been in this season.

    .525 TS%, 3.55 Ast/TO ratio, 110 ORtg as a starter
    .483 TS%, 2.72 Ast/TO ratio, 101 ORtg as a reserve
     
  13. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I didn't realize his ORtg was that good as a starter. That's really solid, especially since he only starts when the team's best offensive player by far, Kyrie, is out.
     
  14. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    20 starts. Most of which was the 2 month period last year.
     
  15. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If you include the playoffs, that adds another 19 games to the sample. (Don't have his playoff numbers handy atm)
     
  16. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Correct. And?

    Let me guess....small sample, right?

    I didn't even include those 19 games when Rozier showed that he was clearly NBA starting PG timber.
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Extremely. His TS% last year as a starter was actually worse. .503 to .527. So his numbers are being inflated by his 4 starts this year where his TS% is .652 as a starter and .477 as a bench player.
     
  18. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Yes, very small sample of mostly bad games skewed by just a couple of very good ones as a starter last year.
     
  19. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    If this is how you feel what do you think his market will be this summer? I’ve got him at 4/$60m to run one of the several teams who need to upgrade the position.
     
  20. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Which is what you’d expect when playing playoff defensive intensity. His increased numbers in Ast/TO ratio, scoring and rebounding were same as starter in the reg season.
     
  21. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    He started 16 games last season. He had two great games, the 30+ point games. In the other 14, he shot .330 from the floor. Those two games were the only ones in which he shot at least 50% from the floor, and he had 11 games where he shot less than 40%. The idea that he’s been some kind of consistent performer as a starter is not grounded in reality.
     
  22. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    This if fair. His TS% in the playoffs in those 19 games was .531, his A:TO ratio was 4.95. ORtg of 115.

    One thing he definitely doesn't do is turn the ball over.
     
  23. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Slightly more consistent in the playoffs, but not really. Here's the game log. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roziete01/gamelog/2018
     
  24. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    39 games with an ORtg of 112ish, without a really strong offensive supporting cast, is quite solid tbh. It's not a huge sample, but it's not nothing either.

    He's also a plus defender in the right lineups.
     
  25. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Of course nobody called him a consistent performer as a young PG where generally only the elite fit into that role. The only point made was his dramatic increase in numbers as a starter.
     
  26. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    And my point made in response is that this “dramatic increase” is explained by a very small sample in which two outlier games greatly skewed those numbers.
     
  27. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The playoffs count too. In fact, they count more in evaluating players, because of the increased gameplanning and defensive intensity from the opposition.
     
  28. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Things weren’t too much different in the playoffs. A few gems surrounded by a bunch of stinkers.
     
  29. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    You can make any player look bad by throwing out his good individual games, keeping the bad ones, and ignoring team performance while he's on the floor.

    I'm not saying Rozier is an elite PG, but there's a lot of evidence that he's an average to above-average starter who retains his value in playoff situations and plays strong defense in the right lineups.
     
  30. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    If you think it’s possible to be an above average player while having 6 bad games for every good one, we’ll just have to disagree about the importance and value of consistency out of a point guard.
     
  31. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    NBA.com has different stats than basketball reference.

    They have him at 106.8 ORtg and 104.9 DRtg during those 19 playoff games.
     
  32. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah if that's the case, I'd weight my evaluation of him down significantly.
     
  33. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    He doesn't elevate much, but he's pretty quick laterally. When matched up against other smaller bigs he's looked good.
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I always thought the numbers were way too high on basketball reference for players. Don't know why I used it when I had the NBA site up. They have his 16 games as a starter last year at 108.9/101.9. His 64 games on the bench, 101.4/100.3.

    This year, his 4 games as a starter 111.7/113.7 and 100.8/100.1 34 games off the bench.

    You could actually argue he's been better off the bench this year. Go figure.
     
  35. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    This is what I get for discussing things while watching football, my bad
     
  36. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Not sure which playoffs you were watching but Rozier was at worst one of our top 3 players in the Milwaukee and Philly series wins.....most likely top 2.

    Now it's a 6-to-1 ratio? I shouldn't even respond to nonsense like this but it's so outrageously biased that I couldn't resist.
     
  37. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Oh I agree he's looked better this year in that he can actually now compete against second unit guys. I was referring specifically about his reach measurements which while impressive are offset by his inability to take advantage of them due to his lack of hops.
     
  38. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    37 assists last night with no one having more than 7. Both Tatum and Brown with 4 is a great sign.
     
  39. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    Independently was looking at this: in 39 games so far this season, Tatum has had 4 or more assists 7 times. Three of those games have been in the last five games. Last night was Jaylen's only game with four or more assists -- he also had four turnovers. I take his willing passing as a good sign, obviously, but a couple of his passes last night were easy ones on the break and Jaylen's had a lot of turnovers lately (10 in the last three games). He did have a nice dish to Kyrie in the paint.

    Much more excited about Tatum's willing passing: just last night there was a nice no-look pocket pass in the paint to Horford, a kick out of the paint to Smart for a three, and a couple of alley-oop attempts (one successful one with Theis.) He's got the ball in his hands a lot more and is already a very talented passer when he's decisive and wiling. I'm hoping he'll come on strong in the second half.
     
  40. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    I can't find the quote but Tatum recently said he thinks the next evolution in his game is making his teammates better. His attention to passing seems intentional.
     
  41. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019_ratings.html

    Don't look now, but the Celtics have the 2nd best net rating in the league. Even if you treat the Bulls game as a 30 point win, they're still in 2nd (and you really should adjust other teams' best win down if you start down that road).

    Pretty impressive given that they're clearly still experimenting heavily with lineups and play styles.
     
  42. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    So how about old friend RJ Hunter randomly finding his way back on the roster?

     
  43. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    There were people here who sounded like they gave up after the Spurs game.

    And they missed Horford, Baynes, Irving, Morris, and Brown for stretches of this last 20.

    Lately almost everyone is playing well and playing well together. They’re one game away from tying the franchise record for 30+ assist games in a row. They scored more points in regulation than they have in over a decade against the #2 defense in the league. Three straight wins by >20, and four by double digits. There’s nobody regularly having horrible nights that come with big minus ratings. We can let go of all the nonsense about Irving looking slow (a real thing people here said in like the second week), Al losing a step, or Brown/Hayward not fitting in or whatever else people have claimed. The Pacers game is probably the third toughest game of the month — they look like they’re going to cruise through January. Hopefully they can beat one or both of Tor and GSW for the cherry on top. This is the team we all expected from the get go.
     
    #2093 amarshal2, Jan 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
  44. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The pace against Indy was impressive.
     
  45. Strike4

    Strike4 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    A lot of players making that extra pass and also getting the ball moving when stuff isn't working. There were multiple occasions in the game against the Pacers last night where earlier in the season:
    1. Tatum would have kept dribbling, driven to the basket, thrown up a wild shot and held his arms up in the air when there was no call;
    2. Brown would have been fouled, missed a layup and got no call;
    3. Smart would have actually shot the early-shot clock three instead of just pump faking;
    4. Rozier would have taken an off-balance shot after doing nothing with the ball.
    In almost all cases, each player passed the ball or reset. You could almost see a thought bubble pop up above their heads - "wait, coach says pass in this situation". JB made some great passes to Theis under the basket when he went up. Smart did a great job of faking and dishing instead of chucking. Rozier was so active without the ball, rather than just letting it stagnate with him, and that gave him that little bit of space he needs.

    I wonder if it was a Brad adjustment or he has been preaching it all along, and it's just taken time to come together.
     
  46. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Brad has been preaching this ever since he got here. Ball has to move side-to-side and can't stick. The issue was earlier in the year that everyone - and I mean everyone - except for Al figured that they were better than the defender so they'd just take it one-on-one. And that's when Brad starting saying that the team isn't as good as they thought they were.

    Even Al said it in the pre-game: When the team moves the ball and plays with pace, they can be pretty good.

    Oh and one more thing - it's nice that they are hitting open shots.
     
  47. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    #2097 DrewDawg, Jan 10, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
  48. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Nice stats. One other thing with respect to shots that are > 10 feet

    Games 1-20; wide open shots (closest defender > 6' away):
    • 2P FG = 4.4% of shots / 2.1-4.0 = 52.5%
    • 3P FG = 21.1% of shots / 6.6-19.0 = 34.7%
    • Total = 25.5% 8.7-23.0 = 37.8% (EFG% = 52.2%)
    Games 21-40; wide open shots (closest defender > 6' away):
    • 2P FG = 4.3% of shots / 1.9-3.9 = 47.4%
    • 3P FG = 21.6% of shots / 8.3-19.6 = 42%.
    • Total: 25.9% / 10.2-23.4 = 43.5% (EFG% = 61.3%)
    Games 1-20; open shots (closest defender = 4'-6' away):
    • 2P FG = 11.3% of shots / 4.0-10.2 = 39.2%
    • 3PFG = 15.1% of shots / 4.6-13.6 = 33.8%
    • Total: 26.4% / 8.6-23.8 = 36.1% (EFG% = 45.8%)
    Games 21-40; open shots (closest defender = 4'-6' away):
    • 2P FG = 9.6% of shots / 3.9-8.8 = 44.6%
    • 3P FG = 14.8% of shots / 4.8-13.4 = 35.7%
    • Total = 24.5% of shots / 8.7-22.2 = 39.2% (EFG% = 50.0%)
    I.e., they are making 1.7 more wide open 3P FG per game on virtually the same shot numbers. That's like 5 points more per game.
     
  49. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    I wasn't able to watch a whole lot of those first 20 games; I well exceeded my budgeted sports TV time during the MLB playoffs. However, every time I did watch, it appeared the players were shooting when they should have been driving, driving when they should have been passing, and passing when they should have been shooting. Yeah, they were missing shots, and some of that is random. But they never seemed to be in great position when taking those "open shots".

    I was at the Dallas game, and it was the first time I saw the team simply click the entire game (again, I know there were earlier times, but I missed them). Hayward was everywhere, and, more importantly, he seemed to be dictating the flow of the offense. I know Tatum got some heat here for having zero assists, but few of his shots that night were what I would call ill-advised. The concern then was how the team would gel when Kyrie and Morris returned from injury. And now Tatum is passing the ball.

    So it has been refreshing to see the team continue to click and dominate their opponents in the process. Now let's see them continue their progress with 3 straight on the road. Granted against sub-.500 teams, but they still count in the standings. They do have a tough schedule 2nd half of February into mid-March, so they need to take advantage of this current stretch and try to move up in the conference standings.
     
  50. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    One other thing. Looking at shot distribution, they have more shots inside 9' over the last twenty games and have decreased the number of shots 2P shots inside 24 feet. All which is good. But the biggest thing to me is how much better they are shooting from 3P range.

    Games 1-20 stats: 788-1,803 = 43.7% / 3P = 245-715 = 34.3% (EFG% = 50.5%) / 61.7% assisted (38.3% unassisted).
    • Less Than 5 ft. = 313-526 = 59.5% / 52.4% unassisted
    • 5-9 ft. = 61-138 = 44.2% / 49.2% unassisted
    • 10-14 ft. = 67-167= 40.1% / 34.3% unassisted
    • 15-19 ft. = 79-189 = 41.8% / 57.0% unassisted
    • 20-24 ft. = 116-361 = 32.1% / 87.9% unassisted
      • 2P = 23-68 = 33.8%
      • 3P = 93-293 = 31.7%
    • 25-29 ft. = 150-417 = 36.0% / 80.7% unassisted
    • 30-34 ft. = 2-2 = 100.0% / 50% unassisted
    Games 21-40 stats: 878-1,814 = 48.4% / 3P = 289-737 = 39.2% (EFG% = 56.4%) / 64.6% assisted (35.4% unassisted).
    • Less Than 5 feet: = 365-549 = 66.5% / 62.5% unassisted
    • 5-9 feet: 67-170 = 39.4% / 40.3% unassisted
    • 10-14 feet: 74-158 = 46.8% / 43.2% unassisted
    • 15-19 feet: 68-154 = 44.2% / 50.0% unassisted
    • 20-24 feet: 101-267 = 37.8% / 82.2% unassisted
      • 2P = 15-46 = 32.6%
      • 3P = 86-221=38.9%
    • 25-29 feet: 201-510 = 39.4% / 81.1% unassisted
    • 30-34 feet: 2-4 = 50.0% / 0.0% unassisted
     

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