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Celtics in 18-19

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by RedOctober3829, May 28, 2018.

  1. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    35,488
    Kyrie
    Hayward
    Brown
    Tatum
    Horford

    Rozier
    Morris
    Theis
    Ojeleye
    Yabu
    Nader

    Major Cap Holds
    Smart $13.6 million
    Monroe $6 million
    Baynes $5.2 million
    Larkin and Gibson just over a million each.

    The Celtics have no room to add with the cap. They can go over to re-sign Smart. I believe they’ll have a MLE to use. I’m not sure how much they could add to the team unless they trade a big salary.

    Is there anyone who would take a MLE that would help?

    It’s hard not to be excited about how good they can be next season.
     
  2. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I feel there will be significant changes to our second unit but we're going to enter the year as the heavy EC favorites even if LeBron stays in Cleveland. I don't feel that both Smart and Rozier will be here, I've got at least one of them gone. Larkin and Monroe are surely gone, I feel Yabu will get moved to clear a roster spot, while Baynes could be as well unless he's open to a one-year Amir-style overpay (only if Smart is moved, can't see us paying both of them). I wouldn't be surprised to see Morris ask for a trade, similar to Crowder last summer, as he'd otherwise be entering his big FA year being buried on the bench.
     
  3. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Overall, prices should be fairly deflated given a couple years of drunken sailor-level spending league wide and a cap that suddenly isn’t growing this offseason. Lou Williams took that deal mid-season that everyone thought was nuts but should be more or less representative of what that type of player should expect.

    You know Danny will sniff around Tyreke, and he only made $3mil and change so almost anything will be a big raise for him. There will be guys in MLE range, it just depends who wants a shot at a ring vs. who wants to chase the contract after this one by landing somewhere with a steadier role.

    A lot of this depends on Ainge’s master plan for the summer and especially what he’s thinking vis a vis Smart and Rozier.
     
  4. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    The Celtics don't have Baynes's Bird rights so I believe they can only offer him a deal with a starting salary of about $5.2 million if I did the math right. I suspect at least one team will offer more than that so the only way Baynes stays is if he is willing to take less to stay with the Celtics - he strikes me as the type of guy who would consider that but I guess it depends on from whom and for how much his competing offers are.

    If they aren't able to resign Baynes (I agree they will likely not resign Monroe as he doesn't really fit their style), they will need another big man beyond Theis, and they'll probably have to use some or all of their MLE to do so. I think since they will be sufficiently under the luxury tax "apron" they will be able to use the "full" MLE, which should be somewhere around $8.5 million. Dwayne Dedmon is someone who could definitely a useful piece and would seem to be a good fit with the Cs, although he'll likely be getting offers from multiple teams, including some who can offer more than the MLE on a short contract, so he'll probably have to agree to a ring-chasing discount if the Cs want him.

    Of course, this ignores all the various trade options - obviously trading Rozier has been discussed ad nauseum, and Morris is a tradeable piece regardless of whether he asks for a trade or not, especially since he is an expiring contract (albeit not a particularly large one).

    Edit: I suppose if they really like Baynes they could use some or all of their MLE to re-sign him to a deal beyond the normal non-Bird exception.
     
  5. lars10

    lars10 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    They also add at least one player from the draft..no?
     
  6. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    I think they dump Nader. He was almost comically bad in some short stints I saw. Maybe Yabusele as well? He has some skills, but doesn't seem like a very high basketball IQ guy. My guess is Ainge dangles Rozier in the off-season -- the team got taller from last year, and it seemed to help, and Rozier is so streaky you can't count on him. Not sure how that crappy game 7 hurts his trade value though. I bet Ainge tries to resign Smart; who knows re: the money, but Marcus says he likes it in Boston, so maybe that helps close a deal. I think Jabari Bird is in green this fall.
     
  7. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    What do we think Smart is going to fetch on the open market? Am I wrong to think he’s not going to command materially more than a 4-year deal for the full MLE?
     
  8. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    19,362
    That is going to be one of the minor mysteries of this offseason. The odds are against it, but I could see there being one team.
     
  9. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Nader and Yabu are end-of-the-bench guys who play like end-of-the-bench guys. On a heathy Celtics team, neither would have dressed for even one playoff game. They aren't a problem in need of a solution.
     
  10. Reardons Beard

    Reardons Beard Member SoSH Member

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    Smart is an unconventional game changer that impacts the a team way above his salary range dictated by conventional statistics.

    Other than health ensuring he sticks around would be my number one priority.
     
  11. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    My hope is that Smart's value was depressed some by these awful shooting performances. In this series he shot:

    4-12 (1-5)
    3-9 (1-3)
    2-9 (0-4)
    2-8 (1-5)
    5-9 (3-6)
    4-7 (1-4)
    1-10 (0-4)

    TOT: 21-64 (32.8%), 7-31 (22.6%)

    I want Smart on this team. I just want him to not shoot as much. You can live with 1-3 each night. You can't live with him hoisting 10 shots in an elimination game.

    By the way, Rozier, who had had such distinct home/road splits in the playoffs, did this the last three games:

    G5 home: 3-15 (1-7)
    G6 road: 10-16 (6-10)
    G7 home: 2-14 (0-10) - so... 5-29 (1-17) total the last two home games

    Crazy. Absolutely crazy.
     
  12. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Might there be a Harden type deal (Not Harden) where a very good player ( Not Harden) decides he wants to play on the next “Superteam” and does something like Harden did (but not Harden) and signs with the Celtics for less to play for a Stevens and have a better chance of winning?

    But not Harden. And maybe not quite at his level but a nice unexpected upgrade not named Harden.
     
  13. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    The superteam in that scenario would be Philadelphia since Boston is already capped.
     
  14. Boston Brawler

    Boston Brawler Member SoSH Member

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    Smart thinks he is worth 12-14 mil per ESPN.
     
  15. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Hopefully there’s a team out there that feels the same way.
     
  16. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Hopefully there isn’t and we get him back for 8-10ish.
     
  17. splendid splinter

    splendid splinter Member SoSH Member

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    Smart thinks he is worth MORE than 12-14 mil, actually.
     
  18. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'm guessing he thinks he's a max player.
     
  19. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Since Brad refuses to coach him on the offensive end, I’d prefer he get an outrageous offer that the Cs can facilitate with a sign and trade for frontcourt depth. Failing that I would rather let him walk and use the MLE to sign someone who isn’t a historically bad shooter with a gunner’s mentality.
     
  20. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Hyperbole alert!

    I want him back because a more typical player of comparable value would be worth less to this team.
     
  21. splendid splinter

    splendid splinter Member SoSH Member

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    I think it’s silly to say that Stevens is unwilling to coach him. But I find the fact that he’s so ready to talk about his contract, and particularly the fact that he referred to himself as the “heart and soul” of the team, kind of worrisome. It makes me think he might believe that he can chuck up 9 bricks out of 10 shots and it shouldn’t matter because of everything else he does. Maybe the problem is he’s not coachable, not that Brad won’t coach him.
     
  22. 4 6 3 DP

    4 6 3 DP Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Brad has said in press conferences that he will not talk to players about shot selection, that it screws them up to do so.

    It's a double edged sword. It's the thing about this team that probably made it successful and also killed it's season.

    The 80s Celtics had every critical possession go through Larry bird. They had hall of famers on those teams who knew the ball only went to Larry late and he decided what works happen. If Marcus smart or Marcus Morris were on those teams they'd be chucking bricks late until Larry went over and choked them. Which is really what is needed. An alpha male who tells these chuckers to know their role. And hopefully with Kyrie and Hayward back we will have that. Whether smart can coexist with that is up to Danny and Brad.
     
  23. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Let's be clear in what we are talking about here. On shot attempts per 36 minutes, Marcus Smart rated 8th on the team among guys who played minutes (7th if you excelude Greg Monroe). In the playoffs, he was slightly higher, 5th of of the 7 guys who played. His reputation for bombing away is not exactly matched by the actual numbers. In game 7 only Baynes (who did not have an attempt) took fewer shots, and only Baynes and Horford attempted fewer threes. Smart's 0-4 from three was far less damaging to the Celtics than Rozier's 0-10.

    In the end, this team had 7 players, one of whom, Baynes, is not really an offensive player at all. Two guys, Horford and Tatum, were productive offensively, combining to shoot 16-29 from the field and score 41 points. Everyone else sucked. That just ain't going to get it done. Smart's an easy target but the real blame lies elsewhere.
     
  24. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    The one shot I will absolutely kill a player for is the pull up three after walking up the dribble.

    Rozier had one last night but mostly the looks were good. We all know Smart can't shoot and it was one of my big concerns when the Celtics drafted him. But he takes shots because a lot of other dudes won't. Obviously having a healthy Kyrie and Hayward will help and some more improvement from Tatum/Brown will help a lot, too. He can fit in the system if the Celtics can afford him.
     
  25. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Smart should be 7th out of 7 in shot attempts, and not close to 6th. Obviously 0-10 is worse than 0-4, but Rozier has hit shots all year, he just had a bad game. I wanted him to take #11 if he was open. Smart has sucked forever. I love what he brings to the table and even last night he made some plays that helped keep them in the game. He's a net positive, but he'd be a bigger net positive if someone told him to shoot threes only when wide open and less than 6 seconds on the shot clock. I'm going to have nightmares about that shot near the end of the 3rd quarter.
     
  26. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    I would love if we could add a Redick or Korver type (not them specifically) who is a 3pt assasin, even if he provides little else. I feel like that is something we dont necessarily have, a gun for hire type off the bench. Not sure if that would be an overpay if we use the MLE though.
     
  27. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    19,362
    I'd argue that the fault there lies with the other players, not with Smart. (Also that any argument that they need to have Baynes taking more shots than Smart is just dumb - force feed him that much offense and he's likely to have worse numbers).
     
  28. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    6,796
    Spotrac has the tax threshold estimated at $123M. The "apron" would therefore probably be around $130M. All of these subject to change, of course. Assuming these numbers hold, the Celtics would about $15.5M in space before the tax threshold, and about $21-22 before the apron.

    They have 11 players under contract, assuming the 3 non-guaranteed players (Semi, Theis, and Nader) are retained. They'll have one first round pick to sign, which will chew up about $1.5M. They have no second rounders to worry about. At this point, it seems safe that Semi and Theis are kept, while Nader is on the bubble.

    Among UFA's, Monroe and Gibson are gone. If Baynes was willing, he could resign here for $5.2M. He'll also turn 31 next season, so I don't see the Celtics dipping into the MLE to keep him if it comes to that.

    Speaking of the MLE, my thought right now is that Ainge will want to stay below the apron at all costs so he can use most if not all of the non-taxpayer MLE. Not sure who'll be available, but the Celtics would be on most veteran free agent's lists (when it comes to MLE players). That could mean that Smart's contract will be capped at about $13M AAV (assuming Baynes returns).

    There is also the biannual exception available to them if they should choose to use it.

    Players on expiring deals include Marcus Morris and Yabusele. Both Horford and Kyrie will have player options the following season, so Kyrie could potentially also be considered an "expiring" contract.

    Should be interesting.
     
  29. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    4,889
    Fair enough, but the point is that even though he doesn't shoot as much as Brow/Tatum/Horford, it's still too much. And he should be able to recognize that. I don't see why he can't eliminate ill-advised 3 pointers and still do all the other things he does.
     
  30. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    As 4 6 3 said, Brad is on record saying he won’t talk to players about shot selection. I don’t care that Smart took fewer shots than other people; he is literally a historically bad shooter, he should never hit double digit shot attempts in a game. It’s rich to say it’s other people’s fault that he takes so many shots when he runs the offense. It doesn’t matter that his looks are open, they’re open because he can’t fucking shoot so teams don’t cover him.

    Listen I love the guy, I would never question his heart or his effort. But his value is overrated by Celtics fans; a lot of his “winning plays” would be totally unnecessary if he were subbed out for a player who could actually put the ball in the basket at a better than terrible rate. I have no faith that he’s ever going to realize he’s the worst option on the court and should never shoot.
     
  31. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    32,842
    Right, Tony Allen made a career of this while shooting less than one 3pa per game and around 5-7 shots per game, usually slashing. That isn’t Marcus’ game so much because of the athleticism difference, but he also brings playmaking that Allen couldn’t dream of.

    He can run a pretty nice pick and roll, can back down smaller guards on the block, is pretty good at drawing fouls, and has in the past has been very credible from the corner three spot. It should be enough without having him approach 10 shots per game, especially in the playoffs where you’re typically dealing with razor thin margins to the point that even a small sample of godawful shooting can be enough to send you home. You live with your good shooters having bad games mostly in the flow of the offense. It shouldn’t be okay to live with a worst guard shooter of all time type of player missing shots he shouldn’t even be taking.
     
  32. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This team didn't lose because Smart attempted 10 shots last night.
     
  33. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    So they shouldn’t try to optimize their offensive opportunities because in this instance a worst guard shooter of all time type wasn’t the precise reason they lost. Got it.

    I’m going to go ahead and drop this line now before the thread derails over a guy who is 50/50 to be on another team come the actual season in the thread title.
     
  34. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    This isn’t about last night but continue to be intentionally obtuse. He takes 9.5 shots per game at a historically bad success rate, that number should be cut in half at most and he has no self awareness. He’s a net positive but not by much because he has no self awareness that he’s a terrible offensive player. Paying one dimensional players role players real money is a bad investment when you have the top heavy roster the Cs do and can fill out the rotation with draft picks and cheap vets.
     
  35. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Reminder: this team, without its two best offensive players, came 6 minutes away from a trip to the finals.
     
  36. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    I can easily see a situation where they come back and he still shoots ten times a game. It's just his game. At any given point in games next year, assuming health, one or two of Kyrie, GH, Jaylen, Tatum or Horford will be on the court at all times. Jaylen and Tatum should be getting nearly all the second unit scoring chances to support their growth assuming they'll be the bridge type players between the two units.
     
  37. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Two things can be true:
    a) they didn't lose because he took 10 shots (Brown and Rozier's off nights had a lot more to do with that)
    b) his shooting volume is a problem

    This isn't a theoretical discussion: we already have the example of a similar player, who is an incredible defender, good playmaker, with a high BBIQ, who gets paid, who also sucks royally at shooting. Draymond isn't even as bad a shooter as Smart, but he shoots about 25% less on a per minute basis, even less from 3. He knows what he's good at.

    There were times in the regular season at the end of quarters when Smart would freeze out Kyrie in order to take the last shot. It's a problem.
     
  38. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Hopefully with KI and GH on the floor with Tatum there won’t be enough shots to go around for Smart to take 10.
     
  39. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Is the shot you're going to have nightmares about the quick pull-up 3 he took to preserve the 2 for 1? Because, that was the right decision.
     
  40. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Obtuse it is! I guess we’re done here.

    Edit: They were 6 minutes from the Finals, to their great credit. That means as much to Smart’s value moving forward as if they had lost to Washington in 6 in the first round. They have to fill 40-45 minutes in the playoffs outside of Kyrie/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford. Paying a one dimensional role player $10M+ to fill 20 of them just makes it harder to keep those guys long term.
     
    #40 Manzivino, May 28, 2018
    Last edited: May 28, 2018
  41. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Can we please focus this thread on the titled season and definitely not the last game of the previous season?
     
  42. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly. We had roughly 48-50 PPG out. That takes care of itself. I suspect that with Davis now a pipe dream, Ainge tries to package Rozier and picks to get as high as possible and maybe draft Bagley or Porter.
     
  43. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    16,666
    I disagree with the fault being on anyone in todays NBA when a gameplanning defense can determine who is shooting the ball on the other team in many sets combined with Smart aggressively searching out his shots. In a perfect world, Smart would shoot as much as Bruce Bowen did in SA (roughly 35% less that Smart) but there is this thing about FA and a contract and numbers and that stuff. If you are presented an open shot in a halfcourt offense you must take it or the entire set breaks down, this is a required FGA......when LeBron knocks down a 3 and you race upcourt to launch a 25-footer with 16 on the shot clock it is a major flaw in the players decision making process. There is no basketball reason for Smart to be taking nearly 10 FGA/g when you have so many better options but this has always been his game.
     
  44. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    How are the Celtics going to improve from this past season?

    1. Get Kyrie Irving back. We saw in this series how desperately Boston could use another great scorer. Kyrie, if he's nothing else, is a great scorer. Moreover, he can create his own shot and doesn't need an "offense" to do it. We saw it when he killed the Celtics, and we saw it this past year with the Celtics.

    2. Get Gordon Hayward back. Lest we forget, Hayward is a freaking stud. In 2016-17 (his last actual year playing) he shot nearly 40% from three. 22 points a game on 16 FGA. He can shoot, he can drive, he can certainly finish at the rim. He's going to be a major offensive force for them next year.

    3. Improvement from Brown and Tatum. Both were outstanding this year. Brown had a bad game 7, but his game 6 was awesome. Tatum showed the goods all year and especially in game 7. They get better and the whole team gets better.

    4. Improved depth. Someone mentioned it already but adding Kyrie and Hayward makes this team not only much better at the top end, it makes it much DEEPER too. Instead of a 7-man rotation, they can run 9-10 deep, with quality players.

    (1) and (2) are basically automatic, and significant, improvements. (3) should happen as a normal course of development. (4) should happen automatically if the first three do. In other words, I don't really think they need to do MUCH in order to be a much, much better basketball team next year.

    Would like to draft well and see the other younger guys get better (Semi, Yabu, Rozier...though they may deal him, who knows, etc.). But really, this short list is probably all they'll need to be significantly improved from a team that was one game away from the NBA finals.
     
  45. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This goes back to my point I've been making all season that when you have Kyrie, Gordon, Tatum, and Jaylen out there (and Rozier)........the minutes available to Smart don't necessitate anything close to a $10m per year deal when you can fill those minutes with Rozier on his rookie deal or a low-cost FA to fill 2nd unit minutes as Ainge has a history of doing during his tenure.

    The only scenario I see Smart possibly returning is with a Rozier trade and a slightly higher than MLE deal (if MLE is all he gets on the open market which should sensibly be the case). I'm guessing at this point that Smart faces a dry market, settles for a full MLE somewhere while feeling disrespected by Ainge, as Danny covers his bases with typical Danny speak about this offer they had and how Smart deserves to be a starter somewhere, yada yada yada. Lather rinse repeat Tony Allen, Posey, Perkins, Isaiah, Crowder, on down the line.
     
  46. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Was it really though? I felt it was a TERRIBLE decision. Two 25-foot desperation heaves (Rozier's was closer to 35-40 feet) over running our set in getting one quality shot doesn't appear to be the best way to approach a 2-for-1 with only a 6 second differential in the clocks and the ball in Smart's hands. You must factor LeBron in iso on the other end getting a shot off with 1-2 remaining on their clock along with time to rebound, and get quick shot against a retreating defense with the game clock in front of them. I cringed the second Smart pulled up screaming "No this is not a 2 for 1 spot!!"
     
  47. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    All good points. Using the MLE for a designated gunner is the final piece IMO.
     
  48. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    Am I the only one very concerned about Hayward's level of play post injury? If he can't cut or move laterally as well as he used to he is reduced to a spot up shooter who can't defend well. And yeah, those players are valuable, but not nearly what we'll need from him.

    I know the organization keeps saying his career won't be affected, but the team's never been super honest about injuries int he past.
     
  49. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Expectations should be tempered for Hayward next year. He’s coming off a horrific injury and an entire year away from playing meaningful basketball. It’s probably 2020 before we see him back to 100% of whatever he’s going to be post-injury.

    I’m more bullish on Kyrie’s recovery for next year but even that is a question mark.
     
  50. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Absolutely true, and the Cavaliers gameplanned to leave Smart open a fair bit (much as the Celtics gameplanned to leave Jeff Green open in the corner). The Celtics were unable to punish the Cavaliers for doubling Horford in the post and that will be a limitation as long as Smart is on the floor unfortunately.
     

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