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Celtics in 18-19

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by RedOctober3829, May 28, 2018.

  1. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Yes, if AD wants the Lakers, he'll refuse to negotiate an extension with the Celtics. Does Ainge give up Tatum for one year of AD? I suppose the Celtics could gamble in the same way that Toronto is gambling with Kawhi, but the Raptors had less to lose after their playoff fail in 2018 (in which DeRozan played himself onto the bench).
     
  2. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    No. Ainge doesn't make that trade unless he's got a reasonable feeling that Davis could be extended.
     
  3. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. What we do need is for AD to reject the extension but for New Orleans to say "F LA" and refuse to trade him to the Lakers. At that point, a Jaylen + package probably gets it done and then you're gambling Jaylen's career on Kyrie's ability to convince AD to sign an extension the following summer, which I would do 100 times out of a 100.

    On the flip side, if AD rejects the extension but is open to LA or BOS, then you have a full out bidding war and I would like our chances there.
     
  4. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    And Derozan is expensive and almost 30 and an ineffcient scorer and a terrible defender. The difference between trade value of Tatum and Derozan is about as large as there is in the league.
     
  5. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The X factor here is that Jaylen in May and Jaylen Now are different things. If (with the disclaimer that this is the biggest if ever) Jaylen from the Spurs game starts showing up regularly, he beats anything LAL can offer.

    Again, that's an incredibly optimistic scenario, but it shows once again how critical his development is for all scenarios going forward.
     
  6. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The problem is that in 2019 business isn't done this way between Owners/GM and Agents especially when that agent is quickly becoming the top power broker in todays game. Not every Klutch client ends up with the Lakers or LeBron (only KCP, JR, and Tristan from my count) but then again not every Klutch agent has Anthony Davis talent either.

    Off topic some but the Lakers could be an interesting landing spot for Klutch client Marcus Morris if LeBron fails to lure any of the top tier guys there. If history means anything this would be an enormous payday for MaMo.
     
  7. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    I cannot buy that a GM (or an owner) would make a trade that would be detrimental to his team both short and long term just to appease an agent. The GM is going for the best deal he can get for his team. Doesn't mean he will get equal value, but if the Celtics were indeed offering Tatum, Brown, and picks (plus any required salary filler), while the Lakers were offering Ball and Ingram, AD is not getting traded to LA.
     
  8. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Where did I ever say that? I responded to the post suggesting that the Pelicans "say F LA and refuse to trade him to the Lakers." That isn't the way you do business or how to create a bidding war. I've always said the advantages LA has is that Klutch has the ability to aggressively and actively engage a 3rd team to supply the Pelicans with additional assets from the Lakers vantage point and/or announce that their client is not interested in extending with Boston.

    Rich Paul has the ability and power to do things aside from getting the Lakers to trade prospects. If Anthony Davis wants to be in LA with LeBron that is where he will end up because he has the leverage to force his way there. I'm not saying that he will only that Davis will end up playing where it is he wants to be.
     
  9. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    That makes more sense. The Pelicans would be foolish to exclude the Lakers from bidding for Davis it comes to that, and there are a variety of possible trade options if Davis makes it clear to his agent that he only wants to play for the Lakers. And I'm guessing Davis isn't going to tip his hand with regards to extending unless and until his agent tells him that it's advantageous to do so.
     
  10. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I mean the Spurs essentially said "Fuck the Lakers" and refused to trade Leonard there.
     
  11. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    What I was getting at is that I think the Knicks and Clippers are dark horse candidates in the Unibrower sweepstakes at the moment, but if Davis says Lakers or bust, they might stay out of the bidding.

    I'm not sure that Boston does have a huge problem beating out the Lakers because I don't think very much of Kuzma (seriously, he couldn't defend Kobe to a room full of Laker fans), and think that Ingram is far closer to a poor man's DeRozan than a future star (at least Brown's upside is poor man's Jimmy Butler, which is a much better player). Ball would be the crown jewel, I'm not sure that he fits all that well with Ingram (to be brutally frank he'd be a much better fit with a transition player like Brown), and his upside, I think, is third star.

    Boston always has the option of moving Hayward to a third team to accumulate more talent for the offer (say to the Pacers for Myles Turner and a pick or Utah for Exum/filler/Utah's late lottery pick). You can build a contender around Irving and Davis with Morris returning to play the 4, Tatum the 3, and Smart/2019 lottery wing (since you know that's going to happen) to plump the rotation.
     
  12. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Not really. The rumor was that the Spurs would not trade Kawhi to ANY Western Conference team......and New Orleans could act in the same manner as teams typically look to trade their stars out of conference when forced to do so. Like Kawhi however, Davis will control where he decides to sign long term even if an EC team takes a chance on him as a rental.
     
  13. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    To be clear, I wasn't saying that the Pelicans will do this or that they should but that is something that would be helpful to the Celtics. Didn't Sarver reportedly refuse to trade Ariza to LA? He's obviously not a star but sometimes owners act irrationally.

    If AD says no to extension and I'm going to sign with LA, then Lakers will be able to put together a package that can top a Tatum-less Celtics offer. It may require them to deal more of the young guys than they'd prefer but it'd get done. They are not going to wait a year to pair AD with LeBron when the latter will be 35 in the middle of next season.

    As everyone agrees, this all depends on AD. If he's open to multiple locations, you've got an all out bidding war. If he strongly prefers LA, then they'll get him this summer because nobody else will part with more than the Lakers. We just have to hope that AD's reported connection with Kyrie is real.
     
  14. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The Sarver thing wasn't totally irrational. LeBron's BFF James Jones is the Suns GM and he basically gifted them Tyson Chandler. Sarver didn't want anything to do with collusion accusations so they asked for Josh Hart in return knowing that the Lakers would never make that move.
     
  15. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I can’t imagine a team will take Hayward until he shows a lot more. And if (when) he does then he’s gonna be what we signed him to be.
     
  16. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I don’t think Gordo’s cut out to be a third option, which is all there’d be for him with Davis & Irving.
     
  17. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yup, I'd rather have him fetch assets to juice up an AD deal and give up less in said deal. Trading him back to Utah is actually not crazy, and solves the optics/player relations issue, while putting him in the other conference.
     
  18. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    Better trade him now.
     
  19. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I mean Utah pretty clearly needs their Paul George to go along with their poor man’s Westbrook, and they don’t have many avenues there. So a trade for Hayward makes a lot of sense for them.
     
  20. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    And what assets would we get back from Utah in this hypothetical? They have plenty of options to match the salary but are they giving up future picks for this version of Gordon Hayward?
     
  21. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I was responding to the hypothetical in which he's good-ish again.
     
  22. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    It's pretty weird to see people give up on this team already. There's nobody in the NBA who is comfortable right now, not even the Warriors. The Celtics are currently inconsistent but they can also beat anybody without touching their ceiling. The notion that Hayward and Brown can't get better because they're both on the team seems...pretty off base. We'll see how things look in May.

    https://www.masslive.com//celtics/2...ing-this-time-without-marcus-smarts-help.html

     
    #1972 amarshal2, Jan 3, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2019
  23. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Let's say Davis goes to LA. Any chance KAT becomes available as a potential Celtics target?
     
  24. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I don’t know which teams will be involved, but I would be surprised if KAT isn’t in Anthony Davis’ position in two years.
     
  25. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    He definitely would. The only issue is that it's unclear what assets the Celtics would be using to target him--the state of the Memphis pick and the development of anyone drafted this year would start to matter a lot.
     
  26. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is more suited for the draft pick thread but...….

    Assuming that we have those 3 #1's where they are currently slotted I can envision Ainge working a similar deal with a couple of these picks that he did with Brooklyn and Memphis in projecting a timeline for their demise or in this case continued demise as he isn't going to be adding 3 mult-year guaranteed contracts to this team to sit and watch. Find a GM looking to improve (errrrr, save his job) by offering two of these picks for an Unprotected or lightly protected future 1st a few years down the road.

    Maybe a Cleveland or Atlanta on the continual path play but Minnesota or New Orleans would fit right into Danny's wheelhouse if he projects Towns and/or Davis leaving the cupboard bare just as the pick conveys to us. I can't wait for this summer leading up to the draft!
     
  27. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    17,000
    Sounds like KAT and Al are pretty close as well. Interesting option to consider if AD goes west.
     
  28. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Then I'm confused--because Ainge brought in Kyrie AND Hayward AND has lusted over AD. Do you think he signed Hayward as a big FA splash to flip for assets?
     
  29. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    The Celtics Relative ORating and DRating this year net out better than they did last season.
     
  30. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    If AD goes to the Lakers, the KAT to Boston thread starts within 24 hours.
     
  31. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Rubio and Ingles?

    I mean, thats pretty much what they'd offer, right?
     
  32. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    In this hypo, it isn't happening until next year - for AD to BOS this year is impossible. So...Rubio is a free agent next year, so that isn't happening
     
  33. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The future is unpredictable, and so Ainge always targets optionality and asset value. Kyrie wasn't just a talent play; he was a bet that the Celtics would be able to get more out of him than other teams could. Hayward isn't just valuable as a player; he's valuable as a $30M expiring with high ability.

    Planning for one exact future is a fool's game in sports, and in the NBA in particular. Ainge is better at navigating the chaos of sports randomness than almost anyone out there.
     
  34. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Semi-random question: How significant is +/- in the NBA? I look at yesterday's game and I see this:

    Tatum: 31 min, 3-11, 8 points, +8
    Hayward: 32 min, 14-18, 35 points, -7

    In any given game, +/- seems wacky. But over the course of a season, wouldn't you expect the better players to have a greater effect on +/-? How long of a period of time do you think is necessary for +/- to have any real significance?
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    It's wacky on a game to game basis. The reason for last night is that Hayward came in when the T'Wolves were down 20 and outscored the Celtics 35-21 to end the quarter, coinciding with the Marcus Smart injury--at a time he wouldn't normally enter the game.

    Now, on the surface, that looks bad. However Hayward scored 15 of those 21 points, shooting 7 of 8 from the floor and without him it could have been much worse.

    Tatum was taken out of game midway through the run, and Hayward was manning the floor with Yabusele and Ojeleye--no Horford or Smart for most of it. Defense is gonna be a struggle at that point.
     
  36. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Right, I get that's why on an in-game basis it's wacky and not useful. So how many games do you need before it becomes useful? At SOME point it has to tell us something about a player, no?
     
  37. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, you're independently discovering the trickiness of basketball metrics. There are a couple of approaches for this, for example:
    1. It usually makes more sense to break a player down in terms of lineups that he's in, rather than just as raw +/- (for the reasons DrewDawg noted above).
    2. People often try to note if something unsustainable is happening in certain minutes for a lineup (high/low 3pt %s and so on)
    That's just scratching the surface, but you get the general idea.
     
  38. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Jaylen can get much better than he has been. He's already getting better. He also gets to play against second units more so if anything he should be able to exceed what he'd be doing as a starter. He's taking 1 less shot per game with the same usage as 2017/18. Coaches in the playoffs were calling him a "first quarter player" so he should be okay with a few less minutes and using the same energy to play even better. Just needs his head right which it seems like is coming.
     
  39. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Your post kinda proves the point I was trying to make. Last night Kyrie WASN'T there taking his 18 FGA while dominating the ball. There was much greater movement, one less mouth to feed (and the biggest one at that), and what do ya know......Hayward and Jaylen thrived! As I've harped on from the beginning.....it isn't the number of shots it is the rhythm and flow of the shots that make them high quality. In those other games Jaylen scored well with Kyrie out there we saw Hayward an afterthought and/or out of sync as there is only one ball to go around so "hero ball" becomes a problem.
     
  40. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Jaylen has been shooting .366 on 3Ps in his last 12 games. In his last 13 games (since he sat three games), his EFG% is .554 and his ORtg is 106.

    It hasn't just been with KI not playing.
     
  41. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Agreed.....but whoever the next scorer is it eliminates the other wings from getting touches and in flow. The other night Jaylen had 30 which is awesome.....but it also resulted in Hayward being out of whack and posting a goose egg. That is great for Jaylen but doesn't do much for the team as Hayward's performance offset Jaylen's and we lost to the Spurs.

    You can't have 3-4 wings and them all play at a high level at the same time when they all need to ball to be effective. Multiple posters questioned this in the game thread the other day (or yesterday I forget which) asking why one is god awful when the other shines. That's just basketball and the flow of the game.....when one or two are on a roll the other doesn't have the opportunity to do so and it also often affects other areas of the game for the non-engaged player. That's just the game.
     
    #1991 HomeRunBaker, Jan 3, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2019
  42. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    Heard a stat on ESPN this morning which confirms what we were saying in the game thread. The Celtics average 30 more passes per 100 possessions with Kyrie off the floor. Which makes sense since without Kyrie the remaining pieces play hot potato in search of an easy shot.
     
  43. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think that "hot potato" is entirely fair. Sure, sometimes it's hot potato. But other times, you have Rozier, Brown, Tatum, and Hayward prodding, trying to penetrate, and rotating when that dries up. It's good ball--take the open shot/lane when it's there, kick when it's not.

    Kyrie and now Morris kinda have carte blanche, and for good reason. They're creating lots of good looks without needing ball swing to do it.
     
  44. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Whatever they intended when they brought Gordo in, he's been pretty poor in the third option role. Some players just aren't cut out for it. It happens.
     
  45. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I still remember that 2017 preseason though--the upside with Kyrie and him as #1 & #2, surrounded by Horford and 2 role-playing wings, is really high.

    I suppose that means the best lineup, if Hayward gets healthy, ends up being Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Morris, Horford, just because of Tatum's ability to spot-up and play D.
     
  46. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I think we have enough evidence now to know that you're right in terms of the issues of having too many shot creators on the floor.

    The question now is how Danny & Brad handle it. Addition by subtraction is always easier than addition by addition, but Danny (correctly) hates giving away assets for nothing. For example, the Avery deal would have been an afterthought for most GMs, and he went out and cheaply filled a huge need.
     
  47. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    So, every 3 possession there's 1 more pass. I know it seems like a lot when you say "30 more passes" but it's really not.
     
  48. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    It's a lot easier for catch & shoot guys to operate down the scoring ladder. That's why it was so easy for Ray Allen during the second Big3 era. The Warriors two primary scorers are great catch & shoot players and their third option is one of the best catch & shoot guys in the league.

    Hayward is more a scoring rhythm guy, which makes it tough for him to hang on the perimeter waiting for his shot. I don't think it's a coincidence that he's done his best work off the bench when he's the major cog. I just don't see much of a fit for him with Irving and Davis.
     
  49. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Other 3rd option guys like Allen, Bosh, Love, Thompson etc. still managed to get 13-17 shots / game. Gordon is currently around 9 coming off the bench. He peaked around 16 his last year in Utah. Right now, it's not much of an issue because he's still feeling his way through his injury but if he makes a full or near full recovery, I can't imagine he'll be very happy for long getting so few shots / game.

    Like you have mentioned, this problem only gets worse if the AD chase is successful.
     
  50. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Right--I wasn't clear. I meant that while I could see him functioning well as a #2 to Kyrie, it has to be as #2, not #3. He clearly plays much better when he's handling the ball and playing in rhythm. Those 1/3 PnRs he and Kyrie did before the 2017 season had him fully engaged and looking great.
     

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