Exactly.
And despite all the armchair analysis, we know that the numbers add up to nothing.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
And despite all the armchair analysis, we know that the numbers add up to nothing.
The Celtics has options other than Kyrie to defend Walker. Kyrie was +6 for the night. He wasn’t the problem. At all.
You can twist plus/minus all you'd like. Marcus Smart was -12, the worst on the team...….because he was forced into a defensive mismatch against Kemba because our PG can't check the opponents PG. This doesn't show on Kyrie's plus/minus though. Kyrie on the floor was crippling in our attempt at slowing down the Hornets offense as it forced the mismatch.
So the powers that be left me to here to do the thinking.
In all seriousness, the debate about the slow start relative to expectations is fun but I have little concern that this team will figure it out. So much talent and potential. It will be fun to watch this team grow.
I just saw her at Joni Mitchell's birthday show ... wait, what thread?
Oh, well what bigq just said.
Kyrie's Defensive Win Shares (1.0, projects to about 4 over the season), DBPM (1.5), and DRtg (103) are all at or trending to career highs. All teams switch defensive assignments all the time; there is no rule that says your PG has to defend the other team's PG if another player on the team is more suited for that role. Marcus Smart is normally more suited for that role; he just had a really bad game.
Again, Kyrie's defense is nowhere near the top of this team's problem list. Both the stats and the eye test bear that out.
Just stop dude. Saying the Celtics are “stuck” with Kyrie is like saying Tom Brady is “stuck” with Gisele. It was always going to take some time to integrate. They’ll figure it out. All that matters is the playoffs and those are a long way away.
Although through three games we all wanted to trade him to make room for Rozier or some nonsense like that haha. Hopefully Hayward gets a buzz cut soon too!
The offense is like the Lilith Fair tour before the Indigo Girls showed up. Lethargic and no fun.
All teams switch when offenses run actions to create the matchup of their choice. The issue with Kyrie last night, as I pointed to previously, was that he was not working hard or even attempting to contest shots which has been consistent all season as Kyrie is 7th on the team in contested 3's per game (thank you hustle stats) despite defending the perimeter......regardless of what his "individual" defensive metrics falsely claim which are heavily skewed toward our overall team defense. We saw this last year as well.
Yes absolutely. Brad knows his players and knows what Kyrie has been bringing defensively this year. The fact that he put Smart in a bad matchup speaks volumes on his feelings of Kyrie on that end of the floor.
This one is DVR'd and no idea when I'll get to it. Who is checking Trey Burke and Is anyone contesting his 3's or keeping him out of the lane?
So have we cooled on this Aron Baynes thing being a fix? The problem with this team isn't rotations......the problem is an awful personnel fit with redundancy on spots on the floor along with too much redundancy in skillsets.
So have we cooled on this Aron Baynes thing being a fix? The problem with this team isn't rotations......the problem is an awful personnel fit with redundancy on spots on the floor along with too much redundancy in skillsets.
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The problem is missing 3pt shots, intensity of play, and a weird inability to defend two guards.
You can delete your recording now.
Which are all characteristics of a bad personnel fit. The team is a mental trainwreck right now. Jaylen's play at the end is a microcosm of this Celtics team right now. Hey at least Aron Baynes is starting in the Amir "one rotation and sit for the night" role.
The Hornets spanked the Pacers 127-109 with 9 players scoring between 8 and 21 points. Kemba had 16.
In an otherwise bleak few pages of a thread, this is a beacon of brilliance. And its even better given that its 2018 and virtually nobody under the age of 30 has a clue what you are referring to...
Be careful; you don't want to throw up your turkey.
Good news is that Hayward looked a lot more fluid and mobile on both ends of the floor. This is called looking at the glass as one-tenth full.
Flicked back and forth; Bruins have half of their lineup fresh up from the AHL and scratched and clawed their way to a point (frustrating it wasn't 2, but oh well). I'll leave that there.
Would Rozier even bring us anything back at this point? The end of the third (?) quarter stood out as particularly brutal to me, he forced up a layup into three guys that got easily blocked and then follows it up with a bad missed three. Didn't even look to get anyone else involved.
Also, shout out Kyrie Irving. Dude took a big charge and an elbow to the face and clearly left it on the floor tonight. It's inexcusable that he's playing harder than Jaylen, Tatum, and Rozier. The guy is an established superstar with a ring.
Also, shout out Kyrie Irving. Dude took a big charge and an elbow to the face and clearly left it on the floor tonight. It's inexcusable that he's playing harder than Jaylen, Tatum, and Rozier. The guy is an established superstar with a ring.
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If the Celtics are looking to make any moves, its an addition by subtraction thing versus maximizing a return. Furthermore, I am not sure Rozier's value can rebound from here given his usage and decision making. Ainge isn't likely to be impulsive (this board would have dealt away most of the roster before the start of the fourth tonight) so I wouldn't expect a fire sale on whomever he deals but if its Rozier, he isn't getting anything great unless the partner is a contender looking to fill a void that results from an injury.
You know it's not one person checking Burke. Issue was that they kept switching Burke into favorable matchups and he kept hitting shots. I assume that's the same with Kemba but I haven't watched that game yet.
I can remember Burke hitting several 3P shots over Horford; one over Tatum; one over Kyrie; and one over JB when he couldn't get around a pick. I can remember a bank shot over Al in the 4Q that was pretty well contested; a floater in the lane when he had someone (JB?) on his hip; and a drive to the basket when JB overplayed the pick and Tommy said that JB was showing Burke how to get to the rim. JB was pulled right after that play.
Burke also hit a few step-backs that probably would have called for carrying in the 90s but I can't remember all of the defenders.
Speaking of which, one thing I think I am seeing is that the opponents are exploiting mismatches than the Cs are. Not sure why that is. Maybe it's because the Cs have too many people who think they have mismatches but other teams limit who is handling the ball.
If Draymond Green were to be made available - and I don't expect him to be - the Cs could kick the tires on something like a Brown, Rozier, Smart (when he can be moved) and Yabusele package for Green and Livingston. It wouldn't solve the Cs shooting woes but it would allow the team to clarify roles and give them a backup PG who isn't trying to show out every time he gets a touch.
As I said, don't think the Warriors are looking to deal Green but if they think that by doing so they can resign Durant, they will have to explore a trade. The Cs check a few boxes in that they are out of the conference and with young talent in Brown that can help extend their window as well as a replacement for some of the defensive things Draymond does in Smart. Rozier would essentially be a throw in back up G with some upside.
As I said, don't think the Warriors are looking to deal Green but if they think that by doing so they can resign Durant, they will have to explore a trade. The Cs check a few boxes in that they are out of the conference and with young talent in Brown that can help extend their window as well as a replacement for some of the defensive things Draymond does in Smart. Rozier would essentially be a throw in back up G with some upside.
it's like they fell into the trap, which should be obvious to avoid, that they could just show up this year and waltz to the finals.
Maybe that was the start but not now. Now I wonder if they’re in their own heads. At least as far as 3’s go. It just doesn’t make sense how so many guys miss so many open shots they’ve historically made.
The Celtics “won” tonight in shots taken, free throws taken, offensive rebounds, turnovers, and assists. They won each of these categories comfortably. So how did they lose by 8??
They lost in 2pt FG% 49% to 44% and 3pt FG% 50% to 30% (they also lost in ft% 80%-70%)
If you equalize 2pt% at 46.5% the Celtics still lose by a couple.
If you swap 2pt fg% the Celtics win by a couple. Ugh.
If you equalize 3pt % at 40% the Celtics win by ~10.
If you swap 3pt% the Celtics win by 26!
I don’t know how to make them a better two point team. I’m not sure effort or shot selection fixes their problems entirely. To score more consistently at the rim they need their current payers to get better (Tatum is clearly trying), current players to play better together (also seem to be improving in assisted shots And free throws taken lately), or they need better players. They seem like they’ve really been trying in this area and I think we’ve seen results recently...there were actually encouraging things the past two games...
...But the 3’s!!! Was effort really the difference in the 4th quarter or was it that they made ~6/9 3’s vs practically oh Fer the rest of the game? Defensively they keep getting torched by mobile guards from behind the arc. Offensively they continue to take open 3’s but they keep missing!! Why? Is it mental?
With teams now putting up 30+ 3’s a game you spot them 18 points if you lose 3pt percentage by 20% as they did tonight. That can’t happen. It’s too deep a hole. With this roster construction the Celtics actually need to be winning 3pt % most nights to be a good/great team.
I like this teams components. I like its defense. I’m not sure you really want to trade out a 2017/18 Jaylen Brown for a Brad Beal. But they gotta figure out the shooting somehow.
I’m definitely frustrated after every game and becoming impatient but thoughtful analysis continues to suggest working it out is best.
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I don't think this team assumed they could just screw around and make it to the finals at all. Instead, I think there are a number of factors at play.
First, as has been well documented, their open/good shots simply aren't falling at career average rates for many of the players. For someone like Hayward its more than likely a byproduct of him finding his rhythm after his injury. For others its may just be a cold streak or perhaps even a tentativeness due to the extended rotation with the addition of Kyrie and Hayward.
That latter factor also seems to be impacting the entire team - unlike last spring when the team was essentially Horford, Morris and the young guns, they now have to work in and defer to Irving and Hayward. The knock on effect is that the younger guys are struggling with their narrower roles after being given immense freedom during the playoffs.
Finally, I happen to think HRB is on to something with contract years being a factor - I don't agree that Smart isn't playing as hard given that he has a new deal as his numbers don't support that view at all. However Rozier clearly appears to have changed his style of play and shot selection in response to his shorter leash as well as his impending free agency.
I don't know what the answer is and the Celtics may yet work it out without making any drastic changes. However if it continues you have to expect that they will explore a few moves with Rozier being sent elsewhere as the most obvious transaction. Given that the C's are run by Ainge, almost nothing would surprise me. I don't think anyone outside of Tatum is totally safe on the roster.
First, as has been well documented, their open/good shots simply aren't falling at career average rates for many of the players. For someone like Hayward its more than likely a byproduct of him finding his rhythm after his injury. For others its may just be a cold streak or perhaps even a tentativeness due to the extended rotation with the addition of Kyrie and Hayward.
That latter factor also seems to be impacting the entire team - unlike last spring when the team was essentially Horford, Morris and the young guns, they now have to work in and defer to Irving and Hayward. The knock on effect is that the younger guys are struggling with their narrower roles after being given immense freedom during the playoffs.
Finally, I happen to think HRB is on to something with contract years being a factor - I don't agree that Smart isn't playing as hard given that he has a new deal as his numbers don't support that view at all. However Rozier clearly appears to have changed his style of play and shot selection in response to his shorter leash as well as his impending free agency.
I don't know what the answer is and the Celtics may yet work it out without making any drastic changes. However if it continues you have to expect that they will explore a few moves with Rozier being sent elsewhere as the most obvious transaction. Given that the C's are run by Ainge, almost nothing would surprise me. I don't think anyone outside of Tatum is totally safe on the roster.
I’m obviously impulsive but I would pull the trigger on that one. Beal is my top target but Green is #2. The Celtics are one of the few teams where Green makes some sense.
Two years ago, I was at the Celtics-Cavs game late in the regular season with a friend who promotes youth groups at games, and we were on the floor for warmups. Here was the convo with Kyrie
My friend: Sorry about Duke losing in the tournament
Kyrie: I don't give a fuck about no fucking Duke.
It was a few days after Thanksgiving in 2010 that Duke played Butler again (after the natty) in which Kyrie messed up his toe by stepping on the foot of a Butler guy - and then was out for 30 games before trying to reintegrate into a lineup that had won the natty a year before. That foot has continued to bother him since. No surprise he probably wishes he could have gone straight to the league. That was a tough time for him. No surprise he hates Thanksgiving - in any other situation he probably (if NBA had straight to the league back then) he wouldn’t still be dealing with that foot.
Just let it go.
Maybe you should watch the 1st half, when the game was decided. Aron walked off the court with 3:33 left in the first quarter. Celtics down 4pts (18-14). At that point, it was time to go with the small ball circus. 12 minutes later they were down 26pts. Game Over.
Baynes counting stats are garbage but he is one of the few guys willing to set a pick or screen, help on defense, block a shot, take a charge, box anybody out or play physical.
The Baynes/Horford combo isn't the problem.
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11/21/18, 8:28 PM
Hi @danielrainge is Janos. I am NOT HAPPY OK . What you are do for fix on this garbage perform ? I am see rat guy win . I am see jaz guy win. I AM PISS . SO PISS . is no title perform is humailiate for all fan . thank you is Janos .
Ok, which one of you guys is Janos.Janos (@isjanosnba)
11/21/18, 8:28 PM
Hi @danielrainge is Janos. I am NOT HAPPY OK . What you are do for fix on this garbage perform ? I am see rat guy win . I am see jaz guy win. I AM PISS . SO PISS . is no title perform is humailiate for all fan . thank you is Janos .
Of course it isn't. It has never been the problem just as it was never the solution. The only positive is that our worst rotation player now gets fewer minutes in the old Amir role with Theis taking those 2nd unit big minutes.
It isn't about Smart not playing as hard as it is him being less focused on "putting up numbers" in advance of his contract negotiations. He has been over 11 FGA/36 each of the past 3 years to much to our dismay however this season with new deal in hand he's closer to where he should be at 7.8 FGA/36. This isn't a coincidence. Rozier isn't himself as he's looking to force everything knowing that he only has a 8-9 minute rotation to get his numbers. He is correct in that he needs to move on sooner rather than later as he's an awful fit for his role on a championship driven team this year.
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Something's not right. My first suggestion was start Rozier and Baynes and have Hayward and Jaylen come off the bench but now I have know idea what's wrong. Hopefully they fix it. I MEAN THE KNICKS!!!!!!!!!!! R U FRIGGIN KIDDING ME!!!!! I don't like booing your own team but I hate to say it was deserved.
Shooting isn't about wide open looks it's about good looks in rhythm. They have not have a rhythm to their offense all season.
Why would open looks preclude them from being in rhythm? Do you have any sort of data or any evidence to explain why we shouldn’t expect them to hit open shots at their historical averages?