Celtics in 18-19

[benhogan]

1 game or 82....when your defense is 2nd in the league during that timeframe and someone posts how you've been physically dominated on defense it's worth mentioning. For the record, I've spoken extensively how this team could very well underachieve (not dominate) since the summer due to a number of factors. Most notably the number of players in contract years coupled with not having enough balls to keep everyone engaged.

Fair enough, we'll use 4 games of stats. Rozier and Baynes have the best +/- on the team so far. I'll go back to my original point, start Baynes and we can play Rozier more for good measure.

Using Horford at the 5 will only create more wear and tear on him, which is by far my biggest issue. If the small ball lineup isn't dominating, I'd rather have Aron go toe to toe with the Kanter/Vucevic types. If you don't believe me, listen to Kareem

 

[DJnVa]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see their issues as the kind that are easily correctible. They're systemic.

Is it a different system than last year?

 

[Big John]

Is it a different system than last year?

That's a good question. When there's one pass and a shot, I'm not sure what system they're playing. When a guys gives up the ball, makes a cut and no one even looks for the cutter, what system is that?

 

[amarshal2]

You're wrong. I have no idea how long it will take or exactly what they need to get on track. It could be as simple as shots starting to fall and guys settling back into a better rhythm as a result. It could be a bigger adjustment to figuring out how to keep the ball moving while players are looking to create for themselves. Either way, the issue isn't a system or systemic issue. We can pretty well know that because this is a virtually identical roster to last year. They were a perfectly good team with Kyrie a year ago, so the big change is just adding Hayward. That should be a small adjustment, not a seismic system change. And, they are running a similar offense to last year too. It just hasn't been working great.

As others have pointed out, the defense remains solid and there is little reason to think it is a concern.

As for winning games by 25-30 points, no one should be winning any category of games by that type of margin. They should have a few wins like that, but even bad teams play a lot of close games, even against good teams. For example, at one point last year that Warriors lost 7 of 10 including dropping a home game against the Kings.

Also, despite the current narrative, the Celtics played very well in their first 2 games. They blew out the Sixers despite poor shooting performancds from several key players and played Toronto (who are most likely the best team in the East and a true contender) reasonably close on the road despite poor shooting from pretty much everyone.

I'm not happy about the last 2 games either, but the sky isn't falling. This is still a top 2 team in the East and a top 5 team in the league.

Tatum is a fundamentally different player than when Kyrie was playing. He was so passive last year; his usage is way up. Brown looks like he’s not sure where he fits in just yet where last year he looked aggressive, comfortable, and confident from the get go (had like 25 points in game 1 or 2). Kyrie is taking fewer shots as other people handle the ball more. There’s a lot of change.

Most people expect this team to be better than Toronto. And the really strong NBA teams do win games against bottom 5 NBA opponents by 25. The average margin of victory for the Warriors is often in double digits against all teams, not just the dregs.

If this team ends up 2nd best in the east and 5th in the nba they’ll have underachieved. Of course we got a long way to go.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That's a good question. When there's one pass and a shot, I'm not sure what system they're playing. When a guys gives up the ball, makes a cut and no one even looks for the cutter, what system is that?

It's the "system" where you have multiple players on the floor in contract years knowing they have a limited number of minutes to get their numbers. The players are the same as last year but their mindset and motivations may be very different.

 

[lexrageorge]

It's the "system" where you have multiple players on the floor in contract years knowing they have a limited number of minutes to get their numbers. The players are the same as last year but their mindset and motivations may be very different.

While I understand that this could be a problem, I don't see this being a problem over these first 4 games. It looks to me they are still adjusting to a bunch of (mostly internal) changes.

 

[Big John]

When they were putrid in the preseason, folks said so what? Nobody cares about the preseason. Now they've underachieved in 4 regular season games. If what ails them were easy to fix, it would have been fixed already.

 

[DJnVa]

When they were putrid in the preseason, folks said so what? Nobody cares about the preseason. Now they've underachieved in 4 regular season games. If what ails them were easy to fix, it would have been fixed already.

How many practice days did they have?

Some of you folks have unrealistic expectations about how things work.

 

[Mloaf71]

When they were putrid in the preseason, folks said so what? Nobody cares about the preseason. Now they've underachieved in 4 regular season games. If what ails them were easy to fix, it would have been fixed already.

And the Pats were going to lose the AFC East 4 games into the season.

Nothing gets fixed in 4 games when there is little practice time.

They’ll be fine but it’ll take time and reps.

 

[the moops]

GSW lost the 3rd game of the year last year to MEM

When they were putrid in the preseason, folks said so what? Nobody cares about the preseason. Now they've underachieved in 4 regular season games. If what ails them were easy to fix, it would have been fixed already.

So you are definitely a glass is half empty kind of guy, right?

We are 4 games into the season. There is absolutely zero reason to panic

 

[Big John]

Who said panic? But I'd be surprised if this team wins the Atlantic division or gets home court throughout the EC playoffs, given some of the issues we've seen in the first 8 games.

 

[the moops]

You really need to drop the 8 game thing. Preseason is preseason. They have played 4 games and have won two of them. Even good teams struggle but find ways to win when they are not playing their best.

We get it - they look not good. What we don't get is your insistence that these problems are systemic and are unlikely to be fixed anytime soon.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

They were mostly excellent against Philly so suddenly we're down to a 3 game sample of underachievement.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I don't even know if they looked that bad last game. They got a lot of good shots and they missed them. In fact, I'm not doing the math but I suspect that if this team were shooting normally, they'd certainly be 3-1 and maybe 4-0.

Just take 3P%.
JT = .263.
KI = .182
JB = .333
AH = .333

Gordan is at .455 but was at .333 before last game. He also missed a very good look to tie the game at the buzzer.

Rozier at .429, Morris at .375, and Smart at .250 are probably the only guys shooting normally.

Note that the only Celtic regulars with an EFg% over .500 is Al (.513) and Morris (.556) with Gordon at .500 even. I'm guessing that's not going to last all season.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Who said panic? But I'd be surprised if this team wins the Atlantic division or gets home court throughout the EC playoffs, given some of the issues we've seen in the first 8 games.

You’d be surprised if the Celtics made up a 2 game deficit with 78 games to play?

 

[Jimbodandy]

You’d be surprised if the Celtics made up a 2 game deficit with 78 games to play?

I think that BigJohn's posts are simply a transcription of whatever is on 98.5 at that moment. Good to know what's being said.

 

[JCizzle]

I don't even know if they looked that bad last game. They got a lot of good shots and they missed them. In fact, I'm not doing the math but I suspect that if this team were shooting normally, they'd certainly be 3-1 and maybe 4-0.

Just take 3P%.
JT = .263.
KI = .182
JB = .333
AH = .333

Gordan is at .455 but was at .333 before last game. He also missed a very good look to tie the game at the buzzer.

Rozier at .429, Morris at .375, and Smart at .250 are probably the only guys shooting normally.

Note that the only Celtic regulars with an EFg% over .500 is Al (.513) and Morris (.556) with Gordon at .500 even. I'm guessing that's not going to last all season.

Greenie has a good article with some stats to back up your point.

https://bars.tl/a7l7NLEqhR

For example:

The Celtics lead the NBA in wide open shots

So far this season, they are 51-103 (49.5%) on wide open looks, where a defender is 6+ feet away. The next closest team is PHI with 91 FGA. That FG% ranks 5th in the league. So you could say, as brutal as the loss against the Magic was, so far this season when the Celtics have been wide open, they’ve converted. Well, against the Magic, the Celtics went a brutal 9-24 on these type of wide open shots, including 6-19 from deep. A classic situation where one game is a bit of an outlier with how they’ve shot when wide open this season. You look at the biggest offenders, and you had Al Horford at 2-8 and Jayson Tatum 1-5. How different is this from their norm?

2017-18 Season on wide open looks: Tatum (51.9%) and Horford (45.7%)

 

[DJnVa]

So the "systemic" thing isn't an issue if it's getting folks wide open shots? Good to know. Seems almost like bad BABIP luck.

 

[Big John]

Yes, they missed 3 pt shots. But they weren't all wide open. Many were forced. There's just too much bad basketball. They haven't learned to play together. You would expect that from a bunch of rookies, but there are no rookies in the rotation on this team.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Yes, they missed 3 pt shots. But they weren't all wide open. Many were forced. There's just too much bad basketball. They haven't learned to play together. You would expect that from a bunch of rookies, but there are no rookies in the rotation on this team.

The other teams are also trying. Every shot can't be wide open.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Who said panic? But I'd be surprised if this team wins the Atlantic division or gets home court throughout the EC playoffs, given some of the issues we've seen in the first 8 games.

You are holding the Cs to a level of expectations that even most of the other top teams in the league would also fail. Let's just look at the other teams projected before the season to be in the top five in wins:

The Sixers are also 2-2 and also almost lost to the Magic (and lost to the Cs, of course). Golden State is 2-1 and would only be a half-game up on the Celtics if they were in the same conference. The Rockets are 1-2. Toronto, yes, is 4-0 and looks pretty good.

So if your point is that it looks like the Celtics will be battling for position all year with Toronto, sure, but that was the case last year too. If your point, which you've suggested in other posts, is that the C's 2-2 record is somehow emblematic of structural/systemic problems, you need to explain why there is something to "fix" with the Celtics but not with Golden State, Houston or the Sixers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

And the Pats were going to lose the AFC East 4 games into the season.

Nothing gets fixed in 4 games when there is little practice time.

They’ll be fine but it’ll take time and reps.

This is true. The one good thing we've got going for us is that effort on the defensive end has been there. You need to begin the season with a foundation and for us it begins on the defensive end. As long as we have that our floor remains pretty high and at the end of the day these early season games mean diddly squat for a team whose goal is to peak in the spring. This is Brad's most challenging team to manage imo. His value will be tested this season.

 

[DJnVa]

Yes, they missed 3 pt shots. But they weren't all wide open.

Well, the wide open shots that I'm referencing were, in fact, wide open. That's what was meant by the stat that they were 9 of 24 on wide open shots. And they missed them at a much larger rate than expected.

 

[Big John]

I think that BigJohn's posts are simply a transcription of whatever is on 98.5 at that moment. Good to know what's being said.

Just for the record, I stopped listening to Boston sports radio when Eddie Andelman went off the air. I don't watch the pre and post game TV shows either.

I don't care what the Sixers, Warriors or Raptors are doing. I don't follow those teams. You can cite all the statistics you want, but the fact is that the quality of the team's play is substantially below what I expected. Maybe my expectations were too high, but I'm sure I was not alone. I've lowered those expectations considerably based on what I've seen so far.

 

[the moops]

There aren't too many expectations that should be altered significantly after 4 games

 

[amarshal2]

It's the "system" where you have multiple players on the floor in contract years knowing they have a limited number of minutes to get their numbers. The players are the same as last year but their mindset and motivations may be very different.

Meh, I think this is likely to be overrated.

Kyrie -- no matter what he's getting a max contract, the only think that matters is who gives it to him. We know he wants to stay a celtic, so it's in his best interest to do everything he can to make the celtics as a team the best they can be.

Baynes - Could've taken a lot more somewhere else. This is where he wants to be.

Mook - Announcers or some writer recently said that he recognizes he needs to do less to create shots and more to make open looks this year. To prepare, he spent time working on spot up shooting over the offseason. Realistically, he is strong 3 and D player and that likely maximizes his value to other teams. He really hurts himself dragging down his FG% on all his moving mid-range jumpers. It's good he can create those looks but he doesn't hit them at a high rate to make it the focal point of his game. The point here is that the role he's facing already maximizes his earnings.

Rozier -- Okay, maybe. But he's clearly a bench player. His job is to play his ass off every minute he gets on the court to show his value. That's what the celtics want too.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

John Karalis had an interesting comment (talking about yesterday's awful first half) on Locked On Celtics pod. He was talking about the Celtics' passing this year, and noted that, yes, they pass a lot, but there's no purpose to it. Instead of passing to move defenders and open up a high percentage scoring opportunity, they'll have a guy try to take his man 1-on-1 then pass out of that if it is defended well, then another guys will get that ball and try the same thing, then a third will try it and end up forcing up a bad shot to avoid a shot clock violation. That and the brickfest makes this team all but impossible to watch. Fortunately the shots fell in the third.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

John Karalis had an interesting comment (talking about yesterday's awful first half) on Locked On Celtics pod. He was talking about the Celtics' passing this year, and noted that, yes, they pass a lot, but there's no purpose to it. Instead of passing to move defenders and open up a high percentage scoring opportunity, they'll have a guy try to take his man 1-on-1 then pass out of that if it is defended well, then another guys will get that ball and try the same thing, then a third will try it and end up forcing up a bad shot to avoid a shot clock violation. That and the brickfest makes this team all but impossible to watch. Fortunately the shots fell in the third.

Sorry, this is stupid. The Cs have guys who can break down the defense and draw other defenders and they are unselfish enough to try to find the open shooter. That's the way the game is supposed to be played.

The Cs are not to my mind (and to the stats cited above) taking bad shots on a regular basis. They are taking decent to good shots but they are not making them. I just posted in the game thread that in the first 6 minutes alone of last night's game, GH, KI, and JT each missed WIDE open 3P shots. If those go in, people aren't talking about the Cs offense.

The only guy I think who is regularly forcing a few shots per game is JT and I think that's because he occasionally tries out moves to see what works. Plus he's basically the best shooter on 2P jump shots on the team gives him some leeway IMO:

 

[the moops]

That is not a Boston Celtic thing though. With teams switching everything now, ISO is the norm. You can run lots of action and still be forced into taking your man one on one. And it is better to pass out of it and give someone else a go than take a contested shot with 15 seconds on the shit clock.

 

[Jimbodandy]

John Karalis had an interesting comment (talking about yesterday's awful first half) on Locked On Celtics pod. He was talking about the Celtics' passing this year, and noted that, yes, they pass a lot, but there's no purpose to it. Instead of passing to move defenders and open up a high percentage scoring opportunity, they'll have a guy try to take his man 1-on-1 then pass out of that if it is defended well, then another guys will get that ball and try the same thing, then a third will try it and end up forcing up a bad shot to avoid a shot clock violation. That and the brickfest makes this team all but impossible to watch. Fortunately the shots fell in the third.

Despite some of the pushback that this post is getting, there is some truth to it. When all of their actions on offense are in place and flowing, the passing has more purpose to it. Even the most basic two-man game between Kyrie and Al isn't clicking regularly yet, never mind any cool stuff. And since Brad basically has a rule of making your move or kicking the ball, you will see a lot of purposeless passing.

The actions will come, and the offense will evolve. For now, most of the looks will ride off the ISO. It seems to be intentional, since even Jaylen is looking for guys at the 3pt line after defense rotates to his drive.

 

[lexrageorge]

67 points in the second half tells me that this is a team that is still looking to find its rhythm as opposed to one that has fundamental flaws.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

That is not a Boston Celtic thing though. With teams switching everything now, ISO is the norm. You can run lots of action and still be forced into taking your man one on one. And it is better to pass out of it and give someone else a go than take a contested shot with 15 seconds on the shit clock.

Good point. I remember a coach talking about this (was it Kerr?) last season. Particularly given all of the switching, a player gets a mismatch and he has to exploit it and draw defenders, otherwise every shot will be contested.

Because the actions are so good these days that teams that don't switch give up a ton of layups - a la GSW from a few seasons ago.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

That really isn’t the point, though. I’m not objecting to people going 1 on 1. The problem is that this iteration of the Celtics looks like an exclusively perimeter-oriented team that is going shoot open and contested 3s, open and contested long 2s, and little else.

Things they are not doing with any consistency:

• Getting to the rim, via any of the many ways to do it
• Running the pick and roll (or pop)
• Working the ball inside, and back out to open shooters
• Focus on creating scoring chances for teammates

At the same time, they are doing a lot of purposeless whipping the ball around, a lot of sets characterized by 2 or 3 unsuccessful attempts to go 1 on 1, and, while they are getting (and missing) open looks they are also settling for a lot of contested shots.

Kyrie left the game for a possession or two in the first quarter. Smart replaced him and immediately got into the paint and then kicked to a teammate who hit a short jumper. It wasn’t anything special at all, but it stood out as something that just isn’t happening this year, at least not with any kind of consistency.

 

[TripleOT]

I think they need to play more two man basketball and get the ball to the hoop, as opposed to using P/R action to hit the paint and then hot potato the ball from player to player before hoisting a three. Against Orlando, they were in the bonus in a two possession game with 8:30 left and they didn't take advantage of it by driving to the hoop and getting fouled even once.

Kyrie is one of the best at getting layups. Tatum is great at taking the ball to the bucket. Rozier is a strong driver. Smart is a mid'post driving beast. Morris is quick enough to get by bigger PFs and strong enough to bully smaller covers.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I've been shouting into the void about it since he got here but the offense almost always runs best when Al Horford is making decisions with the ball from the top of the key. Anybody who wants to credibly defend it has to pull their center way out of the paint which should be opening up a ton of space for the entire offense to operate at a faster pace.

 

[DJnVa]

I imagine Brad is doing experimenting in early going as well. Plays, lineups, etc. But if he’s happy with the 2nd half, then I am too.

 

[bellowthecat]

There are a lot of good points brought up about why the Cs offense is struggling. To me the most glaring issue is that Celtics ball-handlers are unable to get the ball to Al at the top of the key on the PNR when Al pops with enough time to capitalize. Last year this was a staple for this team. Kyrie and Al were nearly unstoppable. This year there have already been many times where Al is wide open when both defenders follow the ball-handler, but the ball-handler can't get the ball to Al. Seems like a timing and rhythm issue that can be corrected with practice and more in-game reps. Once they get this rolling this team will look dominant.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

That really isn’t the point, though. I’m not objecting to people going 1 on 1. The problem is that this iteration of the Celtics looks like an exclusively perimeter-oriented team that is going shoot open and contested 3s, open and contested long 2s, and little else.

Things they are not doing with any consistency:

• Getting to the rim, via any of the many ways to do it
• Running the pick and roll (or pop)
• Working the ball inside, and back out to open shooters
• Focus on creating scoring chances for teammates

At the same time, they are doing a lot of purposeless whipping the ball around, a lot of sets characterized by 2 or 3 unsuccessful attempts to go 1 on 1, and, while they are getting (and missing) open looks they are also settling for a lot of contested shots.

Kyrie left the game for a possession or two in the first quarter. Smart replaced him and immediately got into the paint and then kicked to a teammate who hit a short jumper. It wasn’t anything special at all, but it stood out as something that just isn’t happening this year, at least not with any kind of consistency.

Whipping the ball from side to side gets the defense moving and is a staple of Brad's offense.

As for getting a lot of contested shots, that just isn't so. As posted above, they are getting a lot of uncontested shots - more than average - they just weren't making them until the 2nd half of yesterday's game.

 

[TripleOT]

There are a lot of good points brought up about why the Cs offense is struggling. To me the most glaring issue is that Celtics ball-handlers are unable to get the ball to Al at the top of the key on the PNR when Al pops with enough time to capitalize. Last year this was a staple for this team. Kyrie and Al were nearly unstoppable. This year there have already been many times where Al is wide open when both defenders follow the ball-handler, but the ball-handler can't get the ball to Al. Seems like a timing and rhythm issue that can be corrected with practice and more in-game reps. Once they get this rolling this team will look dominant.

Against OKC last night, I think he drained four threepointers on this action.

 

[bellowthecat]

Al hit 3 threes last night and the first came off pnr action from Kyrie. The second and third he got wide open looks as the trailer in transition. That pass from Kyrie came easily because Adams moved to help by the rim instead of the passing lane back to Al. A lot of the action I'm talking about takes place further out by the 3 point line where the guy getting screened goes over it and blocks the passing lane back to Al. It's been well defended for the most part, but there is space available to beat the defense once these guys get into a better rhythm.

 

[DJnVa]

Morris said he is motivated to beat the Thunder, and Paul George, because he thinks George disrespected him in a commercial a few years ago.

The NBA is awesome.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

So that was their best wire-to-wire effort and they kicked the crap out of Detoit, who went into the game at 4-0 led by Blake's 33.8 points per game.

Good things:

• Blake was held to 7 points on 2-13 shooting.
• Jaylen Brown played his best game of the season, mostly looking like the guy from last year at both ends of the court. He did occasionally force his offense, but not nearly so badly as in previous games.
• Like Brown, Daniel Theis played his best game of the season. Maybe the best game of his Celtic career. 17-8 in 19 minutes off the bench. Horford, who had to match up against the Drummond/Blake frontcourt, only needed to play 21 minutes.
• Marcus Morris (18 points) and Terry Rozier (14 points) also provided steady offense off the bench.
• Gordon Hayward did some nice things. Hit a couple of threes, made a couple of aggressive moves to the hoop.
• The bench outscored the starters, even if you ignore the 4 guys who played only garbage minutes.
• Nine assists for Smart in 23 minutes.
• There just seemed to be more of a purpose to their offense. Using ball movement to open things up for others.

On the downside, Kyrie, Horford, and Tatum combined for 13 points on 5-22 shooting.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

I missed most of the first half, but it seemed like they were using dribble handoffs more, often two to start an offensive set, which opened things up a bit on that end.

 

[benhogan]

I missed most of the first half, but it seemed like they were using dribble handoffs more, often two to start an offensive set, which opened things up a bit on that end.

If you DVR'd it, try to watch the first half, it was a clinic.

Jaylen Brown's ball denial defense on Aaron Gordon was tremendous. Jaylen looked focused from the opening whistle.

Theis had a huge first half. Hopefully, this leads to more minutes for him at the 5 (along with Baynes) and lets Al play more big wing.

 

[the moops]

Jaylen Brown's ball denial defense on Aaron Gordon was tremendous. Jaylen looked focused from the opening whistle.

Who now?

 

[Big John]

Actually I thought Kyrie played reasonably well against Detroit. He only took 5 shots, found open teammates, helped on the glass and played some defense.

 

[TripleOT]

Blake Griffin tearing it up so far this season. Brad's solution - play your SG on him, make it tough for him to catch the ball, don't double till after he makes his move, and make him make contested shots, which he did only twice in 13 attempts, with only 3 assists to 3 TOs. Brad Stevens just Belickicked Blake Griffin.

 

[TripleOT]

This is how this Celtics team is supposed to play. Blanketing defense, combined with smart, team oriented offense, breaking down the other team where ever they have the best advantage. Use your deep, talented bench to bludgeon the other team's subs, 62-34. Bust the game open early, and just toy with the team the rest or the way, and let your third stringers play extended garbage time.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Given the sample size of just five or six games, statistics don't tell us much right now. That said, its nice to see the Celtics leading the league in defensive rating (they are second in adjusted defensive rating to the Bucks) thus far. Their net-rating is pretty low but that is a function of them continuing to figure it out on offense.

In short, we know they have multiple scoring threats so if they can maintain this level of defensive intensity throughout the season and into the playoffs, they are going to be tough no matter whom they face.

 

[joe dokes]

When they were putrid in the preseason, folks said so what? Nobody cares about the preseason. Now they've underachieved in 4 regular season games. If what ails them were easy to fix, it would have been fixed already.

That is not how it works.