All the Way with JBJ - 2016

[alwyn96]

This seems like a great coach-player relationship:

“Last time I talked to him about something, we were talking about hitting the outside pitch and how . . . it should feel like you make contact and you’re still hitting it because you’re driving it now,” Davis said. “And it goes back to working through the ball. And he did a drill, and every day he comes in there, he does the same drill.

“He does the drill, he does the drill, he does the drill. And what he notices about the drill is, ‘I hit the ball the other way well, but I also pull the ball well.’ And to him, that clicked.”

Recently, Davis said, Bradley showed him video in which he felt he was swinging under the ball.

“I said, ‘Let’s do a drill to keep the barrel above the ball,” Davis said. “He did the drill, and he took it to a game that night, and I think he hit two triples and a double that night.”

Awesome. I kinda wonder what the drills were, but they seem to be working.

 

[grimshaw]

Awesome. I kinda wonder what the drills were, but they seem to be working.

He probably uses one of those fat wiffle ball bats, and Davis feeds him super balls because that's pretty much what's happening.

 

[rodderick]

I know the .600 slugging isn't for real, but the -14.5 UZR isn't either. If he can settle into a .800 OPS CF with elite defense he'd be a top 10 player in the AL. And that is looking increasingly more likely.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The .600 SLG isn't for real, but JBJ was a .294/.391/.460 (.853 OPS) hitter throughout his minor league career, with age-appropriate placements. So settling in with .800-.900 OPS peak seasons was always a real possibility.

If JBJ's abject failure in MLB during 2014 was based on something that he and Chili Davis corrected -- both in his approach and in his mechanics (the dreaded toe-tap?) -- it's still remarkable that he bounced back mentally from that epic beat-down.

I can't even imagine the schadenfreude around here, if the Red Sox were stuck with Charlie Furbush while watching JBJ do this for Seattle.

 

[moondog80]

I can't even imagine the schadenfreude around here, if the Red Sox were stuck with Charlie Furbush while watching JBJ do this for Seattle.

FWIW, Ben Cherington says that offer was never made, and Gordon Edes (who reported it in the first place) seems to believe him, based on the comments.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Uh....yeah. Sure it wasn't.

Just like every other trade that doesn't get done.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

nm

 

[moondog80]

We'll never know the truth for sure, but JBJ was definitely not looking like a star or even a major league regular on 5/15/15, so it's not like Ben had some huge incentive to lie about it.

 

[Huntington Avenue Grounds]

Pretty much sums up how JBJ, and Red Sox Nation, feels right about now.

I was willing to defend him to the end if he could just hit .225, can shelf that for a few months at least.

 

[AB in DC]

At what point do people talk about him as a 2016 All-Star? Other than Trout, I don't see any obvious shoo-ins this year in the AL outfield; Gordon and Cain have been good-not-great for the Royals; Mark Trumbo may be having a career year, but he's little more than a journeyman off to a hot start. Nelson Cruz maybe? One of the Blue Jays?

 

[DJnVa]

At what point do people talk about him as a 2016 All-Star? Other than Trout, I don't see any obvious shoo-ins this year in the AL outfield; Gordon and Cain have been good-not-great for the Royals; Mark Trumbo may be having a career year, but he's little more than a journeyman off to a hot start. Nelson Cruz maybe? One of the Blue Jays?

Bradley is currently second among AL OFers with an OPS of .977. There's only 9 AL OFers with an OPS over .800.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Noted in the other thread. Baseball Ref has Bradley listed as the 3rd-ranked WAR CF in the League, behind Trout and Pillar.

Can someone explain to me how that works?

 

[RetractableRoof]

Noted in the other thread. Baseball Ref has Bradley listed as the 3rd-ranked WAR CF in the League, behind Trout and Pillar.

Can someone explain to me how that works?

I had the same question. JBJ is getting crushed on the defensive side of the equation.

 

[DJnVa]

Noted in the other thread. Baseball Ref has Bradley listed as the 3rd-ranked WAR CF in the League, behind Trout and Pillar.

Can someone explain to me how that works?

Are you questioning why JBJ is behind those 2? It's because JBJ's dWAR is -0.5.

 

[BroodsSexton]

Let's just hope he can show enough in the field so we can watch his offense for years to come.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Are you questioning why JBJ is behind those 2? It's because JBJ's dWAR is -0.5.

I guess that's why so many here discount dWAR analyses.

 

[alwyn96]

I guess that's why so many here discount dWAR analyses.

That number doesn't seem wildly off to me. To my eyes, Bradley has made a few more miscues than usual and a few less insanely amazing plays than I'm pretty sure he's usually capable of making, but just didn't for some reason. Part of that may be due to small sample size, part of that may be due to a defensive slump or something. Either way, I'm not worried about it. His hitting will almost certainly come down to something lower than 'elite hitter' and his defense with probably stabilize at 'really good defensive CF'. SSS warnings apply in defensive and offensive stats. Although moreso in defensive ones, just because of fewer opportunities.

 

[Rasputin]

I guess that's why so many here discount dWAR analyses.

It shouldn't be. He hasn't had that good a season defensively. It doesn't mean he's gotten worse, it just means that in the games played so far, he hasn't made the spectacular plays we know he can make and he has fucked up on a couple occasions.

 

[BestGameEvah]

It shouldn't be. He hasn't had that good a season defensively. It doesn't mean he's gotten worse, it just means that in the games played so far, he hasn't made the spectacular plays we know he can make and he has fucked up on a couple occasions.

I have looked at my better half many times this year and said "he would have caught that ball last year".
Just doesn't seem to want to go get it...Maybe, now that he's hitting, he's a little cautious about his body.
Here are some quotes from asst. Hitting coach Victor Rodriguez on Bradley's approach to hitting
(compares JBJ & Middlebrooks!):

"I think he got enough at-bats at this level and he feels so comfortable that all the things that we saw, all the ability, knowing the strike zone, the ability to hit the ball to all fields, now it's working out for him," Rodriguez said. "He showed it last year. And then this year so far he's been very consistent, very productive.

"Guys like me who saw him in the minor leagues being a very good, productive hitter knew that it was only a matter of time before he could put it all together," Rodriguez added.

Rodriguez said every hitter needs a different amount of time to adjust.

"There's other guys (who) struggle and never get it," Rodriguez said. "Like Will Middlebrooks. Guys that had all the tools, did real good, came up and went the other way around (from what Bradley is doing). He did real good, lot of expectations, but he really never put it together.

"It's how they adjust to this level from the mental side more than anything," Rodriguez added. "Because when they get here, they're pretty good. Solid mechanics. They must show something to be at this level. To stick here, that's the problem."


http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/05/jackie_bradley_jr_boston_red_s.html#incart_river_index

 

[semsox]

Batting second in the line-up today with Pedroia sitting. He doesn't stay there when Pedroia plays, but I'd like to at least see him hitting about Holt and whoever is catching.

 

[Darnell's Son]

This thread needs a bump, so iayork wrote an article about the changes that JBJ that dear, old JBJ has made since his hot streak started, way back in 2015. It's loaded with iayork's usual fantastic charts, I'll even leave you a sample below:

 

[mauidano]

Yes! JBJ, AL Player Of The Week!!! Helluva week and congrats Jackie!!!

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This thread needs a bump, so iayork wrote an article about the changes that JBJ that dear, old JBJ has made since his hot streak started, way back in 2015. It's loaded with iayork's usual fantastic charts, I'll even leave you a sample below:

View attachment 2229

Great article. If JBJ can keep up at least a moderate level of success, for the next fifty years, anytime a hitter is having a bad start to his career, JBJ is going to be be used a comp for still managing to have a good outcome.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Last week, Bill James was asked a question about Bradley on his website (subscriber-only site but I think some of the most recent questions are viewable to all?):

"Is Jackie Bradley Jr. a streakier hitter than most?

First 24 games of 2015 (78 PA): .121/.254/.172/.426
Next 25 games of 2015 (90 PA): .446/.489/.952/1.441
Next 25 games of 2015 (94 PA): .138/.247/.263/.510
First 16 games of 2016 (50 PA): .222/.271/.315/.586
Next 17 games of 2016 (69 PA): .406/.449/.859/1.309
Asked by: jgf704
Answered: 5/13/2016
There is something unusual going on there. Jackie's career batting average is just .229 with a .687 OPS, but he has had two absolutely phenomenal hot streaks. He has a 17-game hitting streak, and he just drove in 13 runs in a three-game series, which is kind of an unusual thing. And he was red hot before the series. This could be the optimist in me speaking, but it seems to me, intuitively, that these phenomenal hot streaks must be a kind of proof that Bradley's actual hitting ability is much better than his career to this point demonstrates. It seems to me that if you took a hitter whose batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage were close to Bradley's career norms (that would be Brandon Inge, John Buck, Kevin Elster or Bob Tillman), it seems to me that there would be zero random clusters in there (zero hot streaks) which matched what Bradley has done, not once but twice. It would seem to me that only a much better hitter than this would ever get THIS hot due to the natural clustering of events. Thus, I take it as proof that he is actually a much better hitter than he has demonstrated over a sustained period of time, but just has been held back by some sort of unusual hickeys."

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Edit: double post, sorry.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

From Speier's 108 Stitches email today:
"It appears that the ability to collect hits in 20 straight games is a testament to a broader ability to hit for average and to be, at the least, a solid offensive performer. That’s not a guarantee – it’s worth noting that the longest hitting streak of the decade was a 33-gamer by Dan Uggla, a career .241 hitter (with a 107 OPS+ in his career). Even so, of the 37 players who have posted a hitting streak of 20 or more games since 2010, 31 have career averages of .270 or better, and 30 have a career OPS+ of 100 or better.

In other words, focusing on a .250 average is no longer a sensible standard for Bradley’s offensive production. At the least, in his bursts of exceptional productivity (both last August/September and during this streak), he’s shown the ability to produce at a level that rarely appears for players who aren’t at least solid/league-average offensive performers over their careers."

 

[joe dokes]

With the Bradley-level defense we saw last year, a 107OPS+ is still a really good player.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

"In other words, focusing on a .250 average is no longer a sensible standard for Bradley’s offensive production. At the least, in his bursts of exceptional productivity (both last August/September and during this streak), he’s shown the ability to produce at a level that rarely appears for players who aren’t at least solid/league-average offensive performers over their careers."

Kind of an odd way to frame the contrast there from Speier. After all, last year Bradley was a well-above-average offensive performer (121 OPS+) with a .250 average (actually .249). Until this year he has always seemed like exactly the kind of high-BB, high-K, middling-BABIP-but-pretty-good-ISO hitter who is likely to have high wOBAs despite low BAs; in short, the anti-Michael Young.

This year, everything we thought we knew about him is out the window because he's been so aggressive (as iayork notes in his .com post). Here are some of his "approach" numbers from BBref--first number in each pair is his average from 2013 through 2015, the second is league average over his career, the third is his 2016 number:

P/PA -- 3.99, 3.83, 3.54
I/Str (percentage of strikes put in play) -- 24.1%, 29.1%, 31.1%
1stS (percentage of 1st pitches swung at) -- 25.6%, 27.8%, 31.8%
L/SO% (Ks looking as percentage of total Ks) -- 27.6%, 23.9%, 19.4%

So he's gone, this year, from having above-average patience (or, as it sometimes appeared, passiveness) to above-average aggressiveness. This has hurt his BB rate, but actually helped his K rate and quality of contact (as measured by LD% and Hard%). It looks as if he had been letting pitchers get ahead of him by taking too many hittable strikes early in the count, and he decided to stop doing that--with fabulously successful results so far. Presumably at some point pitchers will start pitching him more cautiously early in the count, and at that point, either his P/PA and walk rate will go back up, or his K rate will (or both). It'll be interesting to watch.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Thanks for that Savin - that's exactly the sort of stuff people miss when they just look at K% and BB% and decide whether or not something is luck. There's much more going on here than a lucky streak - we're seeing a young player adjusting, and we're waiting to see if he can handle the league's adjustment to him.

 

[ALiveH]

2013-14 really negatively skews his career numbers.

We now have 2/3 of a season between 2015-16 with well above-average offensive production (119 and 161 OPS+). I think something between those 2 numbers is what to expect going forward.

 

[Van Everyman]

Really good piece by Pete Abraham on JBJ. Sounds like the guy did a lot of work to get to the point he's at now ... and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder about it.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/05/19/this-jackie-bradley-looking-like-real-thing/zNhzmBEkX4IVzPGgdeh1eO/story.html

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Really good piece by Pete Abraham on JBJ. Sounds like the guy did a lot of work to get to the point he's at now ... and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder about it.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/05/19/this-jackie-bradley-looking-like-real-thing/zNhzmBEkX4IVzPGgdeh1eO/story.html

A little reminiscent of early Pedroia there. Lots of good quotes about knowing he stunk, working hard to get better afterward, and honestly enjoying shutting up the doubters with performance.

I also really have liked reading all the supportive quotes from Betts about Bradley, and vice versa, this year. Very positive.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Wow, thanks, that's a fabulous read. I particularly love this:

“I don’t like to hear constant encouragement,” said Bradley. “It gets annoying. I was fine. Y’all think something is wrong is me. I’m a grown man. I’m not down and out. I’m not going to do anything harmful to myself. You can stop encouraging me."

Like you said, Van, a bit of a chip on his shoulder, but in what seems like a really grounded and self-aware way.

 

[luckysox]

The chip on his shoulder reminds me a little of Papi's, which has always been there, and really, still is. I like that chip. Keep mashing, JBJ.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

This seems like a great coach-player relationship:

“Last time I talked to him about something, we were talking about hitting the outside pitch and how . . . it should feel like you make contact and you’re still hitting it because you’re driving it now,” Davis said. “And it goes back to working through the ball. And he did a drill, and every day he comes in there, he does the same drill.

“He does the drill, he does the drill, he does the drill. And what he notices about the drill is, ‘I hit the ball the other way well, but I also pull the ball well.’ And to him, that clicked.”

Recently, Davis said, Bradley showed him video in which he felt he was swinging under the ball.

“I said, ‘Let’s do a drill to keep the barrel above the ball,” Davis said. “He did the drill, and he took it to a game that night, and I think he hit two triples and a double that night.”

Awesome. I kinda wonder what the drills were, but they seem to be working.

Side note: remember last year when everyone wanted to fire Davis after Pedroia supposedly "fixed" Napoli's swing?

 

[Plympton91]

I'm up to 15 votes for Bradley (and Betts, Pedroia, and Ortiz). Let's show the Royals fans how to stuff a ballot box northeast style.

Should start throwing in some for Hanley too; f:&k Hosmer.

 

[keninten]

I`ve always had mixed feelings about all star voting. It would be nice to see the players get a little time off, especially the pitchers. Of course it`s nice to see our players get the recognition. Loved seeing Wakefield get to go and even Holt last year. I always end up voting for Sox players I think are deserving but have always had reservation about it.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Only at the quarter pole... but did anyone here predict that JBJ would be tied for 6th in MLB with a .340 batting average? Disclaimer, disclaimer, yada yada yada. But damn.

Only at the quarter pole... but did anyone here predict that JBJ would be 7th in MLB with an OPS of 1.025? Damn.

I mean damn. I had hoped for him to reach a 2016 ceiling of maybe .275 (and thought I was being a fanboy) and I wasn't willing to hazard a guess at a decent OPS with the previous MLB strikeout/walk ratio.

Daaaaayuuuuumn.

 

[BaseballJones]

JBJ since last August 9:

91 g, 347 pa, 310 ab, 59 r, 98 h, 27 2b, 8 3b, 17 hr, 72 rbi, 30 bb, 84 k, 4 sb, 0 cs, .316/.376/.619/.995

That's pretty incredible for anyone, never mind a guy who's also as good defensively as he is.


EDIT: That would put him on pace for this line over a 600 ab season:

600 ab, 114 r, 190 h, 52 2b, 15 3b, 33 hr, 139 rbi

 

[Niastri]

100 xbh in 600 at bats!

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

JBJ since last August 9:

91 g, 347 pa, 310 ab, 59 r, 98 h, 27 2b, 8 3b, 17 hr, 72 rbi, 30 bb, 84 k, 4 sb, 0 cs, .316/.376/.619/.995

That's pretty incredible for anyone, never mind a guy who's also as good defensively as he is.


EDIT: That would put him on pace for this line over a 600 ab season:

600 ab, 114 r, 190 h, 52 2b, 15 3b, 33 hr, 139 rbi

It's now reached the point where you can go back farther than that, well into the 2014 suck zone, and still come out with a decent-looking line.

Bradley since the 2014 All-Star Break, in 157 games (136 starts), 535 PA:

.248/.316/.457, 30 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR

A little OBP-shy, but respectable, and God knows how we would have longed for it at the 2014 ASB. And that's more than half his MLB career you're looking at there. I think it's reached the point where we can say he's over the hump. While there's still plenty of room for uncertainty about just how good he'll be when the dust settles and the streaks and slumps balance out, there's no longer reason to fear that he won't hit well enough to be a viable starting OF.

 

[BaseballJones]

It's now reached the point where you can go back farther than that, well into the 2014 suck zone, and still come out with a decent-looking line.

Bradley since the 2014 All-Star Break, in 157 games (136 starts), 535 PA:

.248/.316/.457, 30 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR

A little OBP-shy, but respectable, and God knows how we would have longed for it at the 2014 ASB. And that's more than half his MLB career you're looking at there. I think it's reached the point where we can say he's over the hump. While there's still plenty of room for uncertainty about just how good he'll be when the dust settles and the streaks and slumps balance out, there's no longer reason to fear that he won't hit well enough to be a viable starting OF.

Agreed. And if he hits at an above average level he's a tremendous player.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

100 xbh in 600 at bats!

So, pretty much what Boston expects from its #9 hitter.

 

[Rasputin]

I would like you to cast your minds back to the most recent off season. I would like you to imagine for a moment that someone told you--and you believed them--that on May 21, Jackie Bradley, Jr would have a higher OPS than David Ortiz.

In that situation, how many of you are disappointed that Papi is going out with a sub par season?

And yet, JBJ is currently fourth in the majors with a 1.035 OPS and Ortiz is fifth at 1.033.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Bradley now has a 1.035 OPS (.342, .411, .624.)
Mike Trout is at .986. Bryce Harper is at 1.027. Giancarlo Stanton is at .806. Andrew McCutchen is at .804. Posey, .757, Donaldson .856, Bautista .865, Rizzo .947, Miguel Cabrera .884.

 

[Pilgrim]

The crazy thing is he has made major improvement to his contact skills even while his power explodes. JBJ's K rate is now under 20% this year, to go along with his normally excellent BB rates. Hes just an all around terrific hitter right now:

Spoiler

 

[snowmanny]

I would like you to cast your minds back to the most recent off season. I would like you to imagine for a moment that someone told you--and you believed them--that on May 21, Jackie Bradley, Jr would have a higher OPS than David Ortiz.

In that situation, how many of you are disappointed that Papi is going out with a sub par season?

And yet, JBJ is currently fourth in the majors with a 1.035 OPS and Ortiz is fifth at 1.033.

Here's something you said on July 15, 2014 in that year's JBJ thread..I'm guessing "totally fine" is no longer in play:

[In a world where everyone in the AL who plays a defensive position hits for a .698 OPS, yes, a gold glove caliber fielder at an important defensive position is totally fine if their OPS approaches .700.QUOTE]

 

[Rasputin]

Here's something you said on July 15, 2014 in that year's JBJ thread..I'm guessing "totally fine" is no longer in play:

If you're suggesting I might have a sportsboner, you might be right.

His OPS is higher an Mike Trout's and he plays defense like we've rarely seen. I've generally been pretty high on Bradley's chance to be a productive major leaguer, but I was envisioning a guy who got on base and hit some doubles, not a guy who would be in the top 10 in the league in OPS.

Between Bradley and Shaw, we are being given gifts by the baseball gods the like of which we don't often see.

 

[Devizier]

I was actually pretty excited about Bradley becoming the next iteration of Darren Lewis, but I will settle for Ken Griffey if need be.

 

[Reverend]

Side note: remember last year when everyone wanted to fire Davis after Pedroia supposedly "fixed" Napoli's swing?

I do not, and please do not indicate to me who they are because I might well suspend them on general principle.

What I remember is talk of Davis teaching Bogaerts to hit to the opposite field and working with JBJ on the many adjustments.

As another member of this forum recently said of him, "Gotta think he's got job security." Yeah, it's only a quarter of the season, but, as they say, baseball is a game of small adjustments, and it's really heartening to see so many guys doing what they need to do. I'm pretty sure they're not paying Chili enough.