All the Way with JBJ - 2016

[BroodsSexton]

I opened up my Facebook feed to see this lovely 2-run double by JBJ today.
Spring is here, and I want to be the guy who starts the JBJ thread (here is last year's thread), because it promises to have some of the defensive highlights of the year. I'm excited to watch his defense for a full season--and I want to be bullish on his offense, despite projections saying he's unlikely to repeat last year's break-out effort. I hope the outfield will be one of the positive stories of the year for the Sox, and that we'll see some friendly competition between Bradley and Betts.

JBJ looks a little bulked up to me, compared to last year, and seems to be having a pretty good spring for himself, .391/.462/.565 with a home run, in 26 preseason plate appearances, as of a couple days ago.

So let the .gifs and the webgems commence, and here's to a year of offensive elation.

 

[rmaher]

So is this one of those colorblindblind games again? I'm seeing Red.

Nice hit, Jackie.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sorry I don't know who is doing the new play calling... but his voice is eerily similar to Ted Cruz...


But back to JBJ. I'm feeling like he'll finish the season with a decent OPS- around .760 but with cold cold cold streaks and hot hot hot streaks. I know conventional wisdom is that it doesn't matter how you end up there, but extreme streakiness I've always felt (feeeelings!!!!) is not as valuable as steady productivity. Is there any truth to this- I realize it's unlikely (or unprovable) but my worry with JBJ is that he'll suffer some serious cold streaks that will cause the overall team to struggle, and then when he's hot, that his highs won't be as net positive to a win. Totally irrational I'm sure.

 

[santadevil]

Sorry I don't know who is doing the new play calling... but his voice is eerily similar to Ted Cruz...


But back to JBJ. I'm feeling like he'll finish the season with a decent OPS- around .760 but with cold cold cold streaks and hot hot hot streaks. I know conventional wisdom is that it doesn't matter how you end up there, but extreme streakiness I've always felt (feeeelings!!!!) is not as valuable as steady productivity. Is there any truth to this- I realize it's unlikely (or unprovable) but my worry with JBJ is that he'll suffer some serious cold streaks that will cause the overall team to struggle, and then when he's hot, that his highs won't be as net positive to a win. Totally irrational I'm sure.

So you feel he won't contribute, because his lows will drag the team down and his highs won't be good enough to help us win.

Sure makes me excited.

 

[Average Reds]

Sorry I don't know who is doing the new play calling... but his voice is eerily similar to Ted Cruz...


But back to JBJ. I'm feeling like he'll finish the season with a decent OPS- around .760 but with cold cold cold streaks and hot hot hot streaks. I know conventional wisdom is that it doesn't matter how you end up there, but extreme streakiness I've always felt (feeeelings!!!!) is not as valuable as steady productivity. Is there any truth to this- I realize it's unlikely (or unprovable) but my worry with JBJ is that he'll suffer some serious cold streaks that will cause the overall team to struggle, and then when he's hot, that his highs won't be as net positive to a win. Totally irrational I'm sure.

Not really.

It's like investing, in the sense that if you knew when to sell right before the dips and buy right before the recoveries you'd make a fortune. Of course, no one has been able to do this and it's foolish to think this way, which is why the only rational analysis is to analyze the cumulative return over time and make your judgments based on that.

Hitting is similar. So long as the cumulative numbers put up by each player provide value, you roll out your starters, hope the collective peaks/valleys are such that the team avoids brutal slumps and that the team's performance will reflect their true talent level.

I'd hope for better, but if Bradley puts up an OPS of .760 with his defense, he's doing all right.

 

[smastroyin]

If JBJ has a 760 OPS (105-110 wOBA) then the only disappointment is going to be how much time he sits on the bench while Castillo and Young play.

 

[Darnell's Son]

That's without taking into account his fielding which will keep him at least league average, assuming he doesn't hit like he did in 2014 for an extended period. So if he slumps for 3 weeks, it's ok because of the tremendous CF he plays. Also while he's slumping, you can give him an extra day off here or there by having Holt or Shaw play left field against righties while sliding Rusney into center if need be.

 

[Al Zarilla]

How long was that home run he hit yesterday? Opposite field, hit a guy wire or something way up there. Madone. He seems to like the high outside pitches and taking them to LF. I haven't seen enough of his ABs to know what he does with low outside pitches. Dude has plenty of power anyway.

 

[Biggs]

I live in Boston now after 38 years of my life in South Carolina. I attended the University of South Carolina and was fortunate enough to be witness to JBJ as a college kid who helped USC win back to back college world series rings in 2010 and 2011. He was a winner then and is a winner now! It is with great pride that he is developing into the anchor of the outfield for the Sox. I will be attending my first game at Fenway May 1st against the evil empire with seats in the bleachers near center field. I will be in full Gamecocks gear to support JBJ and the Sox. I will be full on fanboy and not ashamed of it. Go Cocks! Go Sox! and Go JBJ!

 

[flymrfreakjar]

Another HR today, this time pulling an offspeed pitch deep on a line. I've been burned by a scorching spring training by JBJ before, but to see him consistently hitting with power to all fields is really exciting. He looks much like he did during his hot stretch last year.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Can anyone who has seen the games answer whether JBJ has been able to lay off (or not strike out) on pitches down (and particularly away).

This recent article has a good description of how JBJ has been handled in the past and how good he could be if he could stop K'ng on these pitches: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/can-jackie-bradley-jr-stop-striking-out/

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Is he still trying to switch hit or is that over? Haven't been able to watch at all this spring.

 

[Green Monster]

I would say the experiment is over since he has never had an AB from the right side of the plate. You might be thinking of Sandoval or Victorino who both briefly suspended their switch hitting while members of the Red Sox

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

He's thinking of JBJ. As discussed in another thread, before the games stated he was talking about and working on switch hitting as he had done growing up. It appears dead as he hasn't done it at all in ST.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Yeah, I'm definitely thinking about JBJ.

 

[DJnVa]

That's without taking into account his fielding which will keep him at least league average, .

The average OPS for a CFer is about .775 or so I think (that # might be a few years old). If he's at .760 he's nearly league average with the bat WITHOUT his otherworldly defense.

 

[Drek717]

Is he still trying to switch hit or is that over? Haven't been able to watch at all this spring.

It was only ever brought up in an article from early in ST referencing him being a natural RH and that he still takes a few practice swipes from the right side before settling in on the left. Davis mentioned that it was "interesting" but they've never suggested that he would try to incorporate switch hitting at the ML level.

And for good reason: Bradley had a .918 OPS last season against LHP from the LH side at the ML level last season. While he has historically been a traditional split guy there is enough variability and LHB on LHP success to avoid major changes when they might not be beneficial or even needed. If we get through 2016 and Bradley sports a substantial split maybe he and the club consider adding switch hitting to his winter and spring 2017 workload, but until then I'm sure everyone is just excited to see if the JBJ from spring of 2013, the second half of 2015, and spring of 2016 is something he can replicate.

 

[shaggydog2000]

The average OPS for a CFer is about .775 or so I think (that # might be a few years old). If he's at .760 he's nearly league average with the bat WITHOUT his otherworldly defense.

Last year, the average OPS for an AL CF was .735, with a WRC+ of 101. A .760 OPS would have put him in between the 5th and 6th place among qualified AL CF in terms of OPS, Adam Jones (.782), and Brett Gardner (.742). So it would make him a pretty good offensive CF. If he's over .700 I think he's playing every day for a while.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

[smastroyin]

Yeah, that was really my point. If we are considering 760 to be a disappointing result from him, then expect disappointment, unless you are also expecting a 20th anniversary reunion tour of the 1996 AL offense.

 

[pantsparty]

He's thinking of JBJ. As discussed in another thread, before the games stated he was talking about and working on switch hitting as he had done growing up. It appears dead as he hasn't done it at all in ST.

In the NESN All-Access that they did for JBJ it showed him doing some hitting from the right side in what looked like warm-up exercises in the batting cage - it really confused me at first as I had no idea it was something he had ever tried. Maybe it's something he still works on from time to time in drills, who knows if he'll ever use it in games.

 

[BuellMiller]

Hopefully it will only be in the same type of game that Larry Walker also once switched to bat from the right side.

 

[shaggydog2000]

In the NESN All-Access that they did for JBJ it showed him doing some hitting from the right side in what looked like warm-up exercises in the batting cage - it really confused me at first as I had no idea it was something he had ever tried. Maybe it's something he still works on from time to time in drills, who knows if he'll ever use it in games.

When I was a hammer thrower in college, we used to practice rotating in the opposite direction and throwing, just to reinforce the mechanics. And prevent our upper bodies from permanently rotating a few degrees, which actually happens to olympic level throwers but I severely doubt would have ever happened to me considering the difference in practice time. He might be doing it for mechanics purposes, or maybe since he was a switch hitter when younger he always started his drills this way and just never changed when he dropped the switch hitting because that's what he is comfortable with. I don't think it increases his chances of ever switch hitting in the majors, although I'm sure it piques the interest of writers who see it for the first time.

 

[Seabass]

It's weird that this thread is on the second page, as JBJ's hitting .303/.353/.550 this season. Since 2015 he's slashed .267/.340/.515 in 374 PAs over 105 games. That's really, really good. There's been a lot of (deserved) talk about Xander and Mookie being on the cusp of stardom, but it might be time to expand that talk. The biggest single improvement I can see is that Bradley's gone from a 15.5 LD% to a 23.5 mark this season, while hitting grounders at literally the exact same rate as last year. His hard contact rate is up from 32.1% to 40.7%. Yes, his BABIP is high at .377, but you'd expect a higher BABIP given all of the line drives and whatnot discussed earlier. He's not going to slug .550 this year, but we're looking at an extended sample of above average offensive performance from an elite defensive center fielder. That's a great thing.

 

[RetractableRoof]

For the guys who know WAR well, anyone care to explain why Pillar has a current WAR of 2.0 and JBJ is at 0.7? JBJ's batting numbers are better, and I don't believe Pillar to be a substantially better outfielder.

I know the usual caveats and I'm not actually comparing them - just curious where Pillar is getting the uptick. Thanks for the ELIF answer.

 

[phenweigh]

It's weird that this thread is on the second page, as JBJ's hitting .303/.353/.550 this season. Since 2015 he's slashed .267/.340/.515 in 374 PAs over 105 games. That's really, really good. There's been a lot of (deserved) talk about Xander and Mookie being on the cusp of stardom, but it might be time to expand that talk. The biggest single improvement I can see is that Bradley's gone from a 15.5 LD% to a 23.5 mark this season, while hitting grounders at literally the exact same rate as last year. His hard contact rate is up from 32.1% to 40.7%. Yes, his BABIP is high at .377, but you'd expect a higher BABIP given all of the line drives and whatnot discussed earlier. He's not going to slug .550 this year, but we're looking at an extended sample of above average offensive performance from an elite defensive center fielder. That's a great thing.

In the post game interview on NESN yesterday, Jackie said he's just trying to hit the ball hard. The numbers show he's doing just that.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

For the guys who know WAR well, anyone care to explain why Pillar has a current WAR of 2.0 and JBJ is at 0.7? JBJ's batting numbers are better, and I don't believe Pillar to be a substantially better outfielder. I know the usual caveats and I'm not actually comparing them - just curious where Pillar is getting the uptick. Thanks for the ELIF answer.

JBJ's defensive metrics are terrible this year, terrible.

Last year 1 ball fell in that was hit into his zone, so far this year 9. Getting big knock for only 12 out of zone plays.

 

[pokey_reese]

JBJ's defensive metrics are terrible this year, terrible.

Last year 1 ball fell in that was hit into his zone, so far this year 9. Getting big knock for only 12 out of zone plays.

I was just noticing this this morning, JBJ is, by the numbers this year, rating out similar to guys like Trumbo and Braun in the OF, which is shocking. I know that we don't trust the numbers to be meaningful in small samples, but it does seem strange. I feel like I've seen a few plays that I was surprised he hasn't made this year compared to previous years, but these numbers suggest that he is way off. Obviously, he hasn't been making good throws, so the fact that the arm component of his defense would be down makes sense.

As far as plays made in zone, however, does anyone know if this is being calculated based only on plays that he is making, or on balls in his zone which were converted into outs? I ask about that distinction because if JBJ is taking the back-up role more on balls into the right-center gap, we could be seeing situations where Mookie is actually getting to balls that are theoretically in JBJ's territory. I don't know exactly how the zones line up/overlap, but I do see that Betts has 22 OOZ plays (compared to JBJ's 12), and it would be logical that balls out of Betts's zone would be in JBJs zone.

Obviously, defensive metrics at this point have zero predictive value, but do we think that they are at least correctly reflecting what has happened so far? Has JBJ not been making the plays that we would expect him to make, if he truly were a top-tier CF?

 

[Bergs]

Well, he dropped a pop-up last night. That's not gonna help the numbers. Apart from that, there have been a couple of balls near the fences that people in game threads thought he could/should have turned into outs and didn't (none were easy at all, but did "fall into his zone"). That said, that "9" number sure seems like it must be at least somewhat artifactual, and I imagine your premise vis a vis Mookie is as likely a culprit as any.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Continuing some thoughts. Last year the standings allowed Bradley to just gamble on anything without truly hurting the team..Also he was trying to make/stay on the roster as well - top 10 plays keep you on the field. As to throwing he was tailing all his throws early in the season, but markedly more so now that he slid back into third - if I'm not mistaken he had a splint on his throwing hand for a couple days after.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's weird that this thread is on the second page, as JBJ's hitting .303/.353/.550 this season. Since 2015 he's slashed .267/.340/.515 in 374 PAs over 105 games. That's really, really good. There's been a lot of (deserved) talk about Xander and Mookie being on the cusp of stardom, but it might be time to expand that talk. The biggest single improvement I can see is that Bradley's gone from a 15.5 LD% to a 23.5 mark this season, while hitting grounders at literally the exact same rate as last year. His hard contact rate is up from 32.1% to 40.7%. Yes, his BABIP is high at .377, but you'd expect a higher BABIP given all of the line drives and whatnot discussed earlier. He's not going to slug .550 this year, but we're looking at an extended sample of above average offensive performance from an elite defensive center fielder. That's a great thing.

It's a particularly good thing since most of the chatter on this board about JBJ circa 2014 was about how there were virtually no precedents of players starting their career as poorly as JBJ did and coming back to have productive MLB careers. People were pretty ready to get rid of him both in 2014 and probably in 2015.

Good for him.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

And I love the guy, but I need to see if the improvement at the plate is sustained before splooging. We're pretty secure that Betts is going start reverting to something closer to last year's performance...the hope is that Bradley's reversion is substantially higher than last year's. Bogaerts keeps improving in ways that look wholly sustainable.

 

[koufax32]

Assuming a normalization in his defensive metrics, how valuable would a cheap, controllable, .850ish ops-ing JBJ be? Imagine getting 11-12 WAR out of two minimum wage OF positions...

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Incredibly valuable. Particularly one that looks like he won't age 6 years every 2, like some dreamboats we know.

 

[nvalvo]

And I love the guy, but I need to see if the improvement at the plate is sustained before splooging. We're pretty secure that Betts is going start reverting to something closer to last year's performance...the hope is that Bradley's reversion is substantially higher than last year's. Bogaerts keeps improving in ways that look wholly sustainable.

How sustained is sustained? Bradley's track record with the bat is quickly catching up with Betts', which remains pretty short. Granted, Bradley had concerns about contact, but (shh...) Betts' contact numbers are markedly worse in 2016 than in his earlier seasons.

I would have tried to extend Bradley in the offseason, but I was probably more confident than most that his offensive breakout would survive the offseason. I think we want to buy out his arb years in exchange for some team options *before* he posts a five WAR season.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If you look at JBJ's track record including the minors, the anomaly is 2014. If he reverts to form on defense, and he is a .300/.350/.500 player, he's the best player on the Redsox and a perennial MVP candidate.

 

[pokey_reese]

And I love the guy, but I need to see if the improvement at the plate is sustained before splooging. We're pretty secure that Betts is going start reverting to something closer to last year's performance...the hope is that Bradley's reversion is substantially higher than last year's. Bogaerts keeps improving in ways that look wholly sustainable.

Are we though? And is it much more believable than JBJ's improvements? I'm as bullish as anyone long-term for Betts, but I'm not sure that it makes him immune to the sophomore slump, and the Bogaerts reference just calls to mind how recently we saw this play out with another top prospect. Betts has seen his walk rate rate drop and Ks rise, though his BABIP has dropped a bit even though he is making the same amount of hard/soft contact and has the same batted ball profile as last year (which is good news). Still, given that it's his second full year in the league and how well he performed last year, it wouldn't be that shocking if this year was about making adjustments as pitchers are less likely to throw him that inside fastball. By the same token, JBJ has spent a lot of time adjusting to the majors and had a great half-season at the plate last year, so it doesn't seem so hard to believe that he is good now (even if his OPS falls .100 - .150 points, he would still be good). I

I can't wait to see Betts improve, but I don't know that it is much more likely than JBJ continuing to be a .700-.800 OPS hitter.

 

[DJnVa]

Are we though? And is it much more believable than JBJ's improvements.

Well, Betts is based on about 900 major league plate appearances and the level established, while JBJ's improvement is on about 300 or so.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

His throw from the outfield was nearly 99 MPH tonight. His arm is fine.

I will say, the "eye" test agrees with the metrics on his defense. It hasn't been very good.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Incredibly valuable. Particularly one that looks like he won't age 6 years every 2, like some dreamboats we know.

Well, he doesn't have to share space with Beltre, so that makes it easier to stay on the field.

 

[Rasputin]

Assuming a normalization in his defensive metrics, how valuable would a cheap, controllable, .850ish ops-ing JBJ be? Imagine getting 11-12 WAR out of two minimum wage OF positions...

Plus Bogaerts. Plus Vazquez. Plus Eduardo Rodriguez. That's a lot of value for not a lot of money.

Plus four of the top 30ish prospects in the game.

Giggity.

 

[simplicio]

His throw from the outfield was nearly 99 MPH tonight. His arm is fine.

I will say, the "eye" test agrees with the metrics on his defense. It hasn't been very good.

Velocity was there, but once again it's about a full body length up the first base line. '14-'15 JBJ puts that at the plate, which really matters if the runner isn't Billy Butler.

 

[Max Power]

He's gotten himself in-between on a lot of balls in front of him or off the wall this year. They've skipped past or over his head for extra bases. It's almost like he's expecting himself to make a play and then panicking when he realizes it's not going to happen. If defense can go into slumps, this must be what it looks like.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Perhaps an over-obvious interpretation of the situation, but worth throwing out there: maybe he's been so focused on getting his offensive game together that it's affected his concentration in the outfield. If so, then I think it's a good tradeoff, especially if it's a temporary one, which seems likely.

 

[Van Everyman]

Exactly what I was thinking. Or that he's simply doing more reps at the dish as opposed to the outfield.

Would also add that defense can be as streaky as hitting in many respects tho we don't tend to think of it that way – including from one year to the next. Until JBJ's prowess the last few years I thought I wouldn't see another CF glove as good in the Sox uniform as Coco Crisp in 2007 – I remember being absolutely blown away at the quality of the guy's fielding that year and how I was even a little depressed when he would be lifted for Ellsbury during the playoff run, as exciting of a player as the latter was. But by 2008, Coco wasn't the same guy in the field – and his hitting had only marginally recovered so that was really that.

Point being: defense is less about raw talent that we probably imagine it is – just as hitting does, sustained excellence requires reps and health and everything else. Just as Wade Boggs.

 

[grimshaw]

Exactly what I was thinking. Or that he's simply doing more reps at the dish as opposed to the outfield.

Would also add that defense can be as streaky as hitting in many respects tho we don't tend to think of it that way – including from one year to the next. Until JBJ's prowess the last few years I thought I wouldn't see another CF glove as good in the Sox uniform as Coco Crisp in 2007 – I remember being absolutely blown away at the quality of the guy's fielding that year and how I was even a little depressed when he would be lifted for Ellsbury during the playoff run, as exciting of a player as the latter was. But by 2008, Coco wasn't the same guy in the field – and his hitting had only marginally recovered so that was really that.

Point being: defense is less about raw talent that we probably imagine it is – just as hitting does, sustained excellence requires reps and health and everything else. Just as Wade Boggs.

As amazing as JBJ was a few years ago (12 defensive runs saved), Crisp was at 15 that year. And then he did drop to -1. Blah, blah 3 year stabilization.
Both of those rate about a 7 on the fielding scouting scale. I can't even imagine how rare 8's are.

 

[Van Everyman]

Wow, that's a good get.

My sense w JBJ is that if you were to break down his defensive value you would also find far more of it tied up in his arm than with Crisp, who was a lot closer to Ellsbury on that front. Not sure exactly how plays out but it certainly another variable that could explain the changing grades.

 

[grimshaw]

Wow, that's a good get.

My sense w JBJ is that if you were to break down his defensive value you would also find far more of it tied up in his arm than with Crisp, who was a lot closer to Ellsbury on that front. Not sure exactly how plays out but it certainly another variable that could explain the changing grades.

It looks that way. Bradley rated 4 runs above average with his arm to Crisp's -1. Bradley had 13 assists and 8 double plays to Crisp's 7 and 4.

Maybe there will be a bit of Deion Sanders effect down the line when teams stop running on him as much, though I think holding runners going 1st to 3rd or scoring is factored in.

For reference, the 4 runs saved is considered very good, but not top 10. Cespedes was at 14 (which is probably what drove a lot of his value that year, since he looked kind of clueless on fly balls at times). Ichiro hit 6 twice and 7 in his prime.

 

[nvalvo]

I was wondering if the three consecutive Sunday Night Baseball appearances and resulting red eye flights might be affecting his ability to sustain the kind of concentration that's required to play high-level outfield. Maybe he just needs a few full nights of sleep.

Of course, he's been doing great at the plate, so who knows.

 

[Stitch01]

Well I think he's worth more than Charlie Furbush now.

 

[cahlton]

If his defensive slump continues he can just replace Ortiz as DH next year.