Maybe playing in 12 degree weather is it. Can't imagine he has much experience in it.
Granted, no one really does, but still, that's cold.
AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Granted, no one really does, but still, that's cold.
Kareem Hunt last 2 Pats game Totals
228 Yards Rushing 27 Carries 8.4ypc
203 Yard Rec 10 Catches 20.3 per
4 TDs
1 Fumble (his very first carry of his career LOL).
He is no longer a concern.
BB can game plan to stop Kelce or Hill. Which one he chooses may decide the game.
228 Yards Rushing 27 Carries 8.4ypc
203 Yard Rec 10 Catches 20.3 per
4 TDs
1 Fumble (his very first carry of his career LOL).
He is no longer a concern.
BB can game plan to stop Kelce or Hill. Which one he chooses may decide the game.
I don't love Mahomes as much as everyone else. He reminds me too much of Favre and try's to make to many plays.
He makes more than a few throws a game that are insanely risky and should not be attempted. He almost let the Colts back into the game by making cross-field throws that if they were a few inches higher or wider would have been picked off.
The guy is in a great system with amazing talent around him and one of the best offensive play callers in the league. If he just played within the system and did not attempt so many risky throws he would be a much better QB.
Mahomes has great talent, but that is his biggest flaw in my opinion as well.
Why does it have to be either? We've seen how they've done this in the past, having a DE jam the TE at the line for a second or two before rushing the QB (unless they split him out wide) to mess up the timing and then for Hill using a safety over the top.
Hot take.
Gordon and Michel. Both guys were basically learning on the fly.
Michel has had time and Dorsett/Hogan has displaced Gordon.
My simplistic belief/hope is that the 2 new guys were having trouble on the road. Now that Michel has more experience and Gordons talent has been replaced by D/Hs experience (in this offense) that we are seeing the next gear. And that road woes will be lessened. That along with No Hunt gives us a better then avg chance.
Need to avoid the kind of scheme mishap that resulted in the long Hill touchdown late in the first matchup. They are going to put up points but you can't give them touchdowns for free. Gave them two 60+ yarders, a short field off a strip sack, and a 97 and KO return for an easy score. Punts would be optimal, of course, but at the very least they'll need to force some FGs.
If they do something akin to what we saw yesterday (lots of blitzing) then it's certainly possible they hit us for a long gain. That's the downside to that type of pressure. Going to be interesting to see what we cook up.
Hunt and Hill have done most of the damage against the Pats in the previous two meetings. No Hunt will help. Hill had 14 catches (20 targets), 275 yards in the 2 games, with a 75 yard touchdown in each game. Probably obvious, but eliminating the big play is important.
I agree with the narrative on making Mahomes beat you with his arm. Don't let them run it with either RB or QB. Mahomes has a few passes get away from him every game...whether they are ducks or just bad decisions. Increase the throwing volume and don't miss your couple chances at a pick.
Then throttle their defense. That's how to win.
Then throttle their defense. That's how to win.
Is anyone really worried if Eric Berry returns? He got in the opener against the Pats last season and then didn't play this year until Week 15. He played 99 total snaps of football in Week 15 and 16, sat out 17 and missed the Divisional. I for one would like to see him in there.
Ugh, this again. They still had the one seed after blowing the Denver game. Then they lost three of their last five.
This too. They lost four other games (three badly), and if they had played a lick of defense before that final lateral play they wouldn't have been in position to blow the game.
Their home / road splits were so extreme, I have trouble chalking it up as just variance. They were 2nd in defensive DVOA at home and 31st on the road. All their worst offensive performances (other than Week 16 vs BUF) were on the road, too. And they played a tougher schedule at home - KC, HOU, IND, MIN, now LAC - while playing awful against dreadful opponents like JAX and DET on the road. And they caught their road opponents at the right time. TEN beat the Pats in the middle of a 2-5 stretch, MIA beat the Pats in a 2-5 season-ending skid, and the Steelers were on a three-game losing streak before beating the Pats (and then lost the game after).
I don't have an explanation, but the performance was so extreme I think the burden of proof is on the idea that it's just variance.
Also a not insignificant percentage of folks will have ski masks or something covering their faces / mouths
This answer is basically the equivalent of Sean Payton deciding to use Taysom Hill at QB over Drew Brees when he's carving up the Eagles defense.
If he could be a "much better QB", then we're talking about hands-down the greatest of all time ever to play the position. I mean, he just put up a 66%, 5,097 yds, 50 td, 12 int, 113.8 rating season, tacking on 272 rushing yards as well. As a 23-year old. I don't know how it's even possible to be "much better" than that. Part of what makes him great are those risky throws - he has the talent to pull them off. It's like Michael Jordan's ability to make circus shots, even when the D is playing great on him. Yeah for anyone else those would be insane to try, but it's Michael Jordan so, yeah. Mahomes is just 23 and obviously this isn't really a Jordan comp, but it's at least the same idea. I've never seen anyone run full sprint to his right and throw across his body to the left - a frozen rope to a guy in a tight window - yet Mahomes has the talent to make that play. Yes he can make mistakes, but for all his mistake-ability, he had just one INT more than Brady this season.
Yet I still think the play is to take away the run and make Mahomes consistently beat you through the air. He'll still likely put up 30+ but still...that's the best chance I think.
Bingo. You can't clap and screaming is reduced as your face is literally frozen. And it just saps energy in general.
It doesn't completely eliminate it, and at 20-30 degrees it probably doesn't matter. But -5 is abnormally cold and the crowd will be out of their comfort zone too, so it will minimize the advantage somewhat.
I suspect KC will come out with press coverage all over the field and make NE's receivers get separation. Indy's couldn't. And then hope their pretty solid 4-man pass rush can get to Brady before he can find an open guy.
The counter to this is just pound the ball down their throats, then run play action.
The counter to this is just pound the ball down their throats, then run play action.
Its pretty difficult to prove a negative in this case.
I think its important to underline that its not just variance, as in poor luck, but also what I termed "shit happens" that could be accounting for the bad road performance this year (bad game plan, bad matchups, various other one time problems cropping up in different games). As long as those things aren't predictive of the future, they can just be lumped in with variance.
I just don't see what the explanation would be and in the absence of a compelling explanation for why this team is all of a sudden likely to perform relatively worse on the road than your average team, I'm not going to get worried about it.
For a good example of the dangers of worrying about these small performance subsamples, look at the Chargers, the league's best road team this year who just laid a total egg on the road.
Oh, I thought he meant the cold air would suppress the sound too.
Another topic, on NFLN Good Morning Football one of the four people (Kyle Brandt?) they have was wearing nothing but a barrel, I think because he’d bet the Colts would handle the Chiefs or he’d show up that way. So, Rick Burleson says that was a new definition of “morning wood”. Kay Adams exclaimed “oh my god.” So one of the other guys (Peter Schrager?) said he’d wear the barrel only next Monday but I didn’t get if it was if the Pats or the Chiefs win. Fun show they have there.
I thought this was an interesting point as well, so I looked it up. Turns out Mahomes' one start last year was a 17 degree day in Denver. His stat line was meh (284 yards, 1 pick, 0 TD) but it was his first start as a rookie.
Also, Reid is saying Eric Berry is day to day. I'd be surprised if he plays much and is effective on that heel.
That's always been the formula for beating Brady: cover the primary guys long enough to get pressure rushing four. All the while containing the run game and screen passes well enough to keep them from doing much damage.
Just that it's very difficult to pull it off for 4 straight quarters.
If KC is playing press coverage, then they are likely giving safety help over the top. No doubt the Patriots will try and pound the football inside if they do that.
If there is no safety help and they bring them down to play the run, I'd expect guys like Edelman could burn the pressing corners on hitch and go routes or other double moves.
KC's defense sucks and running the football is one way to exploit them. IND and their 20th ranked rushing attack wasn't up to the task and they really didn't even try. I'd expect the Patriots' 5th ranked rushing attack to test them plenty.
If there is no safety help and they bring them down to play the run, I'd expect guys like Edelman could burn the pressing corners on hitch and go routes or other double moves.
KC's defense sucks and running the football is one way to exploit them. IND and their 20th ranked rushing attack wasn't up to the task and they really didn't even try. I'd expect the Patriots' 5th ranked rushing attack to test them plenty.
I'm encouraged that they took James White out of the bubble wrap he's been mostly stashed in since the Minnesota game. That's an outlet that is almost always available that provides a guaranteed 3-5 yards at minimum, which doesn't sound like a lot but makes a huge difference if it's turning 2nd and 10s into 3rd and 5s or better.
That field in Arrowhead looked messy. Hopefully another week of snow/ice may be able to slow Mahomes, who looked a bit gimpy as well.
Damien Williams has looked pretty good. Against the Colts, he had 129 rushing (with a TD) and 5 receptions for an additional 25 yards.
It is funny how the home-road thing sets the narrative, even more than the head-to-head.
Some things I keep thinking:
1. The Pats had three road losses before their bye week. Admittedly it was a late bye, but the Pats re-invent themselves as the season unfolds. The Miami loss was a miracle, and they shit the bed at Pittsburgh. Whatever. The past is hardly destiny here. As BB says over and over again, the team that plays better on Sunday is gonna win. So I am going to put exactly as much stock in the Pats' road record as I put in the Chargers 'awesome' record 'outside LA' (as the phrasing went last week).
2. I want to hear people throughout America saying "dink-and-dunk" in fits of rage all next Monday. It seems like KC's defense is pretty terrible unless they manage a pass rush and they are only going to manage that if they have a lead, or have a team afraid to run or take short yardage passes. Run the ball and get rid of it quickly in short yardage passing. I want to see Andy Reid's head explode as Rex Burkhead plows for yet another six yards. I'd also like all of Georgia to go into a James White PTSD shock experience. I don't want to see 3rd and 7 at all.
3. Be careful what you wish for with a muddy, bad track. It seems to me that the offensive player knows where he is going, can shoulder fake and keep his footing, and the defender has to react. I'd rather my defender had some footing trying to grab Tyreek Hill, for example, than not.
4. But like everyone else, I'll take a full serving of cold weather, thank you. Some of this stuff seems overly mystified, but HFA in football seems real enough, and mostly boils down to noise. Somewhere out there is a decibel record for all NFL games, where the issue of temperature can be tracked against noise. I can't find it myself. I even tried to find, for example, the crown noise #s for the 2007/08 Giants-Packers NFC Championship game that was cold as could be. Google and watching YouTube did not turn up much, but the road team did win that game....
Some things I keep thinking:
1. The Pats had three road losses before their bye week. Admittedly it was a late bye, but the Pats re-invent themselves as the season unfolds. The Miami loss was a miracle, and they shit the bed at Pittsburgh. Whatever. The past is hardly destiny here. As BB says over and over again, the team that plays better on Sunday is gonna win. So I am going to put exactly as much stock in the Pats' road record as I put in the Chargers 'awesome' record 'outside LA' (as the phrasing went last week).
2. I want to hear people throughout America saying "dink-and-dunk" in fits of rage all next Monday. It seems like KC's defense is pretty terrible unless they manage a pass rush and they are only going to manage that if they have a lead, or have a team afraid to run or take short yardage passes. Run the ball and get rid of it quickly in short yardage passing. I want to see Andy Reid's head explode as Rex Burkhead plows for yet another six yards. I'd also like all of Georgia to go into a James White PTSD shock experience. I don't want to see 3rd and 7 at all.
3. Be careful what you wish for with a muddy, bad track. It seems to me that the offensive player knows where he is going, can shoulder fake and keep his footing, and the defender has to react. I'd rather my defender had some footing trying to grab Tyreek Hill, for example, than not.
4. But like everyone else, I'll take a full serving of cold weather, thank you. Some of this stuff seems overly mystified, but HFA in football seems real enough, and mostly boils down to noise. Somewhere out there is a decibel record for all NFL games, where the issue of temperature can be tracked against noise. I can't find it myself. I even tried to find, for example, the crown noise #s for the 2007/08 Giants-Packers NFC Championship game that was cold as could be. Google and watching YouTube did not turn up much, but the road team did win that game....
gloves v. bare hands, yeah.
Don't discount all the puffy coats and blankets. They likely absorb a ton of sound, and also limit the exposure of hard surfaces (concrete and seats and such) where sound can bounce off of.
That's a lot of acoustically absorptive material.
(yeah I know, that's not Arrowhead)
Swarm tackling on the QB. HE's not "so" used to the cold, and maybe even more than it affecting his arm or accuracy, he's going to feel those hits in the cold. Too bad the field is warmed....an ice-hard field would make tackles hard on him when he scrambles.
The tickets for the chiefs general public sale were outrageously expensive today. I “scored” a single in the upper level for $340. Yes this from the chiefs box office and not on the exchange thing. I think they must be doing this to discourage people from buying and reselling. Not thrilled with that. I feel like I got conned a bit by getting a ticket at “face value”. Anyway it’s my own fault but I got caught caught up in the whole wait room and presale hoopla that I just bought without really looking or thinking. Did anyone else have this experience?
They may have overplayed their hand. Right now there are nosebleeds for ~280. We ended up finding lower bowl end zone seats for not too much more than the nosebleed seats. Bundle up!
Not sure how the NFL works it. MLB yes. I know season ticket holders paid about half of what I did...
Mahomes winning a game this weekend was the first time a Big 12(est. 1996) quarterback has won a playoff game. Kind of an insane stat.
The Chargers I think are easier to explain with variance / shit happens - they went as their turnover differential took them. They were -2 at home vs Baltimore and lost; they were +2 at Baltimore in the divisional round and won. They were -2 in all three of their home losses. Turnovers are exactly that sort of unpredictable / high variance / shit happens that leads to weird stuff.
But the Patriots didn't lose the turnover battle in any of their five losses, remarkably. They just got beat.
I guess if you wanted to isolate a cause, it would be that hearing the snap count on offense and limiting the opposing offense's ability to adjust pre-snap is vital to winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots' six worst rushing performances were all on the road (they went 1-5). Five of their worst six run defense performances were on the road (the one exception: Houston Week 1, if you're curious). Although really, you could do this with just about any stat. They played like the best or one of the best teams in the league at home all season and like a bad team on the road, even though they played a weak road schedule.
They only played three away games after the bye, and went 1-2. They were closer than the three pre-bye road losses, so ... improvement, maybe? But their only quality road win (at Chicago) was pre-bye, and the only post-bye road win was @ the hapless Jets with a backup QB.
The good thing is that the game yesterday was pretty clearly their best game all season - best in offense by EPA, fewest rush yards allowed, 2 off their season high in points and yards, against a very good LAC team. And Week 17 they allowed their fewest points and had the greatest margin of victory, albeit against an awful Jets squad. So maybe they're peaking at the right time - as long as you don't go back any earlier (Week 16 - worst passing game by far, losses Weeks 14 and 15).
Does it make sense to Break down our losses.
1. Jacksonville- At the time considered a real power in the AFC. Game temp was also 97 Degrees. Not much else I can remember. OL seems like it was in flux. Cannon was out, and Jacksonville had a very strong Dline.
2. Detroit-I keep wondering how Matty P fits into the equation. How much did he "know". Hard to believe that the Pats staff didnt mix things up sufficiently but it was a weird loss. No Edelman. No Gordon.
3.Tennesse- I also keep wondering how Vrabel fits into the equation. Ok maybe a mediocre to bad Detroit team caught us on a bad day. But when you also add in that Vrabel and his mediocre team also caught us on a bad day I get skeptical. No Gronk...not even Blocking Gronk
4. Miami-House of horrors, hot day, last minute miracle. Chalk it up to a bad day on all involved.
5.Steelers- Good team, great talent. Practically a division game for as often as we play.
This is totally not "the patriot way" (ie i am "Making excuses"). But when I look at this I can convince myself that this team isnt as bad on the road as I think. Especially now that they are as healthy(full roster) as they have been. And I will go to my grave believing that Matty P and Vrabel keyed in on something (Snapcount, defense, etc etc). Familiarity and all that.
Am i way off base in any of these "excuses"?
1. Jacksonville- At the time considered a real power in the AFC. Game temp was also 97 Degrees. Not much else I can remember. OL seems like it was in flux. Cannon was out, and Jacksonville had a very strong Dline.
2. Detroit-I keep wondering how Matty P fits into the equation. How much did he "know". Hard to believe that the Pats staff didnt mix things up sufficiently but it was a weird loss. No Edelman. No Gordon.
3.Tennesse- I also keep wondering how Vrabel fits into the equation. Ok maybe a mediocre to bad Detroit team caught us on a bad day. But when you also add in that Vrabel and his mediocre team also caught us on a bad day I get skeptical. No Gronk...not even Blocking Gronk
4. Miami-House of horrors, hot day, last minute miracle. Chalk it up to a bad day on all involved.
5.Steelers- Good team, great talent. Practically a division game for as often as we play.
This is totally not "the patriot way" (ie i am "Making excuses"). But when I look at this I can convince myself that this team isnt as bad on the road as I think. Especially now that they are as healthy(full roster) as they have been. And I will go to my grave believing that Matty P and Vrabel keyed in on something (Snapcount, defense, etc etc). Familiarity and all that.
Am i way off base in any of these "excuses"?
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/afc-title-game-buildup-pats-at-chiefs.25989/page-2#post-3236687
That's one way to look at it.
You can also say that their only three road wins were 1) at Chicago in a game where the Pats had 14 special teams points and won by 7 2) at Buffalo with their third-string QB 3) at the Jets with their backup QB.
EDIT: I'm being a little flip here, but the striking thing to me is not just their road record, but how badly they played. Three of the games they got blown out. Miami was a fluky loss but it was also a horrible defensive game against a team they had throttled earlier in the year. Pittsburgh looks close but the Pats' only TD was on a spectacular blown coverage; that was their longest scrimmage play of the year. The Chicago win, as mentioned above, was keyed by 2 ST TDs; their only two all year. They earned that 3-5 on the road.
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How different is this Chiefs offense without Kareem Hunt?
Watching the longish set of highlights from that earlier game, Hunt was a genuine menace. With him no longer in the equation, and with say, Patterson now a more meaningful wrinkle in the Pats running game, I wonder if this looks and feels like a really different game on both sides of the ball. I know, the Pats lost Gordon too, but man, Hunt was scarry.
Watching the longish set of highlights from that earlier game, Hunt was a genuine menace. With him no longer in the equation, and with say, Patterson now a more meaningful wrinkle in the Pats running game, I wonder if this looks and feels like a really different game on both sides of the ball. I know, the Pats lost Gordon too, but man, Hunt was scarry.
That's definitely true but that affects every road team in the NFL, including the Patriots' road teams in 2016-17 when they went 15-1.
If the claim is that the 2018 Patriots are particularly bad on the road in a way that is predictive for this game - such that the standard 3 points or so that Vegas assigns to HFA doesn't capture the full extent of their disadvantage - then logically the theory must revolve around some factor that is particular to the 2018 Patriots, not just to football teams on the road in general and not to the 2016-17 Patriots either.
I don't think we'll resolve this, but "shit happens/bad luck/who-the-fuck-knows-but-don't-lose-sleep-over-it" still seems a lot more compelling to me.
I will say the first part of BaseballJones Post is one of the finest posts I have ever seen 
OK I get that they didnt score well. But couldnt that be a result of Matty P knowing the team, Missing Edelmen/Gordon, Vrabel knowing the team, playing a tough Jacksonville D etc etc.
Its like a self fulfilling prophecy. Maybe Matty P, or not have Jules for 2 of those losses would have also happened had they played at home.
Also If I was going to bet on a portion of this team improving as the season went on and proving out to be dependable it would be the Offense.
Is it really fair to say we couldnt score on the road when in Miami we scored 33 and Chicago 38 (granted with some special teams help).
Jacksonville and Detroit could also almost be looked at as 2 very different offenses from the end of the season.
So scoring only 10 pts in 3 of the 5 losses could almost be looked at as aberrations whether home or road.
Had those losses been "on the defense" (Lets say 38-30 losses or 41-34 etc etc) then that would make me worry more that we would lose even if its a shootout with KC.
Pitt and Tenn hurt and Miami is a WTF.
Back to this game. No Hunt isnt getting nearly enough attention. And I saw where someone mentioned Williams, but I dont seem him putting up 150+ Yards from Scrimmage that Hunt has done to us recently.
I am waiting on the prediction thread. Pats 34-KC24
OK I get that they didnt score well. But couldnt that be a result of Matty P knowing the team, Missing Edelmen/Gordon, Vrabel knowing the team, playing a tough Jacksonville D etc etc.
Its like a self fulfilling prophecy. Maybe Matty P, or not have Jules for 2 of those losses would have also happened had they played at home.
Also If I was going to bet on a portion of this team improving as the season went on and proving out to be dependable it would be the Offense.
Is it really fair to say we couldnt score on the road when in Miami we scored 33 and Chicago 38 (granted with some special teams help).
Jacksonville and Detroit could also almost be looked at as 2 very different offenses from the end of the season.
So scoring only 10 pts in 3 of the 5 losses could almost be looked at as aberrations whether home or road.
Had those losses been "on the defense" (Lets say 38-30 losses or 41-34 etc etc) then that would make me worry more that we would lose even if its a shootout with KC.
Pitt and Tenn hurt and Miami is a WTF.
Back to this game. No Hunt isnt getting nearly enough attention. And I saw where someone mentioned Williams, but I dont seem him putting up 150+ Yards from Scrimmage that Hunt has done to us recently.
I am waiting on the prediction thread. Pats 34-KC24
I think the big difference is that you probably don't have to worry quite as much about Williams coming out of the backfield. He has been catching plenty of passes but they have been more of the short dump-off or screen variety. Hunt is more likely to be outrunning one of our LBs on a wheel route downfield and to take one of those short passes 20+ yards instead of the 5 to 7 yards the average RB would get.
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KC averaged 36.7 points a game with Hunt (5 of the 11 games were at home). 32.0 points a game without him (4 of the 6 games were at home).
KC averaged 434.3 yards a game with Hunt. 411.0 yards a game without him.
So yes, his absence has made a difference. Maybe the weather too, but 4.7 points a game is a big difference.
KC averaged 434.3 yards a game with Hunt. 411.0 yards a game without him.
So yes, his absence has made a difference. Maybe the weather too, but 4.7 points a game is a big difference.
If they're going to choose to bottle up either Kelce or Hill, my money is on Hill. I'd much rather have KC throwing/running the ball more to get a score. With that cold, the chances of a dropped catch, bad handoff is better. Someone also mentioned earlier upthread that one common denominator in Mahomes' worst games was an increase in attempts.
I think that also goes hand in hand with limiting the amount of times KC has the ball which BB will certainly want to limit. I love the blitzing yesterday but can't decide if they'll do the same given the run threat that is Mahomes. I'm assuming that at age 23 whatever gimpiness he had yesterday will be long gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hightower thumping on Kelce off the line and then joining a rush. There was 1 insane sequence yesterday where the camera above showed Hightower flattening a slot receiver about to cross and then moving horizontally to smash a 2nd receiver. He looked his best yesterday and this Hightower arrives just in time. I'd love to see the all-22 and what he did all game.
I think that also goes hand in hand with limiting the amount of times KC has the ball which BB will certainly want to limit. I love the blitzing yesterday but can't decide if they'll do the same given the run threat that is Mahomes. I'm assuming that at age 23 whatever gimpiness he had yesterday will be long gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hightower thumping on Kelce off the line and then joining a rush. There was 1 insane sequence yesterday where the camera above showed Hightower flattening a slot receiver about to cross and then moving horizontally to smash a 2nd receiver. He looked his best yesterday and this Hightower arrives just in time. I'd love to see the all-22 and what he did all game.