AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup

Super Nomario

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That's definitely true but that affects every road team in the NFL, including the Patriots' road teams in 2016-17 when they went 15-1.

If the claim is that the 2018 Patriots are particularly bad on the road in a way that is predictive for this game - such that the standard 3 points or so that Vegas assigns to HFA doesn't capture the full extent of their disadvantage - then logically the theory must revolve around some factor that is particular to the 2018 Patriots, not just to football teams on the road in general and not to the 2016-17 Patriots either.

I don't think we'll resolve this, but "shit happens/bad luck/who-the-fuck-knows-but-don't-lose-sleep-over-it" still seems a lot more compelling to me.
Well, hopefully you're right and I'm wrong. I don't think there's a consensus on what actually causes home field advantage generally, so it's difficult to pinpoint ways that this particular Patriots team might be especially disadvantaged by playing on the road (or maybe it's advantaged by playing at home, or maybe both). That doesn't mean they aren't though, and there are certainly plenty of changes from 2017 to 2018 that could cause the interaction of road-suckitude factors to be different with this Pats team than in years past. There are a lot of unknowns here.

What I will say is I don't see a pattern of stuff that I easily explain away with "stuff happens": turnovers, ST meltdowns, fluky big plays (other than the one against Miami), close losses, tough slate of opponents. I see blowout losses to bad teams, random big plays actually working in NE's favor (their three longest TDs of the year were all in road games), a positive turnover differential, etc.

Also, while you're right to note that this road ineptitude would be a change from 2016/2017, I would argue that clearly something did change from 2016/2017. Even if it's not road woes, they lost two games by multiple scores in those two seasons (and one of those was the "Jacoby Brissett with a broken thumb" game), and three this year. Those kind of non-competitive performances are uncharacteristic; they've lost to bad teams in the past, but it's usually been more the kinds of reasons good teams lose to bad teams: turnovers, ST hiccups, injuries, etc. If you want to say it's just variance and the home / road split is coincidence, the wild inconsistency in defensive and offensive performance is uncharacteristic, especially when you consider how poorly they played on a snap-to-snap basis against teams that aren't very good.

Its like a self fulfilling prophecy. Maybe Matty P, or not have Jules for 2 of those losses would have also happened had they played at home.
Also If I was going to bet on a portion of this team improving as the season went on and proving out to be dependable it would be the Offense.
Is it really fair to say we couldnt score on the road when in Miami we scored 33 and Chicago 38 (granted with some special teams help).
I agree there's more reason to be optimistic about the road offense than the road defense. You can kind of explain away the Jax and Detroit's offensive ineptitude with no Edelman, Gordon and Michel not factors yet, etc. Even the Pittsburgh wasn't the same kind of totally futile performance they had at Detroit or Tennessee; they moved the ball against the Steelers, they just fizzled out and shot themselves in the foot with penalties.

So scoring only 10 pts in 3 of the 5 losses could almost be looked at as aberrations whether home or road.
Had those losses been "on the defense" (Lets say 38-30 losses or 41-34 etc etc) then that would make me worry more that we would lose even if its a shootout with KC.
I don't know why you're giving the defense a pass on the Jacksonville, Detroit, or Tennessee games. The Jaguars, who finished the year with the league's 31st-ranked scoring offense, put up 24 points in their first five drives. The Lions, who had the 25th-ranked scoring offense, put up 13 on their first 3 drives and had their first 100-yard rusher in ages. The Titans, who had the 27th-ranked scoring offense, put up 17 in their first three drives en route to their season-high in points. Three terrible offenses, three even worse defensive performances. That the offense also played terrible in these three games (and thus they weren't "shootouts") does not mean the defense played well. Then you've also got 31 points to the Bears (who had a decent O) and 34 to the Dolphins (who were the 26th-scoring O).
 

Bowhemian

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Regarding the weather and the noise, it was pretty cold in Foxboro yesterday, no? And from what I heard on the tv, it was pretty loud. So I am not sure that I buy the narrative that it won’t be loud at Arrowhead due to cold weather.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't mind chalking the first two road losses up to the Pats viewing the first four weeks mainly as extended training camp. Not that they're trying to lose obviously, or not trying to win, but there's a lot of experimentation going on and they are ALWAYS far far far from a finished product at that point.

The Miami game - they always play crappy there and there was the once in a generation fluke play. Aberration.

The Steeler game...man they really shot themselves in the foot in that one and the refs were terribly inconsistent with the calls. Plus Brady's terrible interception. Very un-Patriot like game. Same for the Titans loss. They just got manhandled and that was pretty eye-opening.

So I'm ok with saying that SOME of their road woes were due to things that I just wouldn't worry about. But some of them...were very worrisome.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
In discussing hurricanes, comedian Ron White proclaims, "It's not THAT the wind blows, it's WHAT the wind blows." The analogy to football is: it's not as much THAT X player is on the field, it's WHAT that player is asked to do, and are they put in a position to succeed. Despite the undeniable impact of strategy, game planning, the ability to adjust on the fly, and coaching, these always seem under-represented in pregame discussions. Versus KC, the Patriots have a clear and massive advantage preparing for playoff games: As a postseason head coach, Andy Reid is 12-13, while BB is 29-11.

Sub .500 versus the GOAT.
 

DJnVa

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Regarding the weather and the noise, it was pretty cold in Foxboro yesterday, no? And from what I heard on the tv, it was pretty loud. So I am not sure that I buy the narrative that it won’t be loud at Arrowhead due to cold weather.
It was 30 degrees yesterday with little to no wind.

KC is expected to be around 5 degrees. That's a substantial difference.
 

RedOctober3829

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I can’t really come up with good reasons for why they’ve stunk on the road. I won’t put much thought in predicting how much will or will not carry over from the RS struggles since the playoffs are such a different animal. The one thing I will worry about carrying over however is the lack of focus and mental toughness from the Pittsburgh game. There is no way they’ll win if they commit the volume of self-inflicted penalties they did that day. It will be a complete bitch to communicate on offense so all players must have laser focus and all on the same page.

I almost hope they take the ball first and try to do what they did yesterday. Seize control early and try to take the crowd out of it.

Remember, all the pressure is on KC. They’re the 1 seed and have the MVP. I wonder if they put a lot into last week with all the talk of not winning at home and this week they could be just a bit relaxed and “happy to be here”.
 

RedOctober3829

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Clete Blakeman is the referee per Football Zebras on Twitter. He had last year’s AFCCG as well.

His history with the Pats is not great. He was the referee in the famous MNF game at Carolina where Gronk got mugged in the end zone. Also worked the Jets game in 2015 where he screwed up the coin toss

Pats are 3-5 with him as referee.
 
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DJnVa

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Clete Blakeman is the referee per Football Zebras on Twitter. He had last year’s AFCCG as well.
Didn't we have a game last year in postseason where we were under .500 with the ref? Seems odd that a team that wins all the damn time ends up with refs that turn those numbers around.
 

j44thor

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Clete Blakeman is the referee per Football Zebras on Twitter. He had last year’s AFCCG as well.

His history with the Pats is not great. He was the referee in the famous MNF game at Carolina where Gronk got mugged in the end zone. Also worked the Jets game in 2015 where he screwed up the coin toss

Pats are 3-5 with him as referee.
Worked out pretty well for NE last AFCCG given NE was called for 1 penalty for 10yds vs 6-95 against JAX, also the controversial Myles Jack fumble recovery blown dead that could have virtually ended the game.
 

ObstructedView

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Regarding the weather and the noise, it was pretty cold in Foxboro yesterday, no? And from what I heard on the tv, it was pretty loud. So I am not sure that I buy the narrative that it won’t be loud at Arrowhead due to cold weather.
Agreed. And I don’t understand why people keep talking about gloves muffling clapping since it seems to me that most of the noise is from yelling. Anyway, it’s not exactly a hot take but getting out to a strong start and thereby taking the edge off the crowd would be huge.
 

j44thor

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Agreed. And I don’t understand why people keep talking about gloves muffling clapping since it seems to me that most of the noise is from yelling. Anyway, it’s not exactly a hot take but getting out to a strong start and thereby taking the edge off the crowd would be huge.
Yeah I'd be shocked if it wasn't loud AF Sunday. Cold is going to keep everyone on their feet for 3+hours and a 6:30 kickoff means plenty of time to get "lubed up" for the game.
 

j44thor

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Temps will have a much bigger impact on the kicking game than the fans, will be interesting to see what NE draws up to keep the ball out of Hill's hands on ST.
 

CantKeepmedown

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Assuming it's going to be very loud, no matter the weather, hopefully David Andrews will figure out how to snap more efficiently than Bryan Stork did back in the 2015 AFCC. No more head bobbing, please. Houston, Ford, and Co. are good enough as is.
 

Pandemonium67

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This would be a really good game for the Pats to grab an early lead and keep the pressure on the Chiefs to not fall too far behind. In the second half, when temps are in single digits, that football will feel like a brick. In the 4th quarter it will not be easy to throw or catch long passes, so I hope the Pats have a lead and can smash away on the ground to kill clock.
 

simplyeric

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Temps will have a much bigger impact on the kicking game than the fans, will be interesting to see what NE draws up to keep the ball out of Hill's hands on ST.
I don't think the fans will have much impact on the kicking game.
Unless they wear rally caps.

With the temps so low, do we want it in Hill's hands, and hope for a muffed catch?


Chargers starting field position yesterday: 33, 25, 25, 21, 25, 31, 28, 24, 20, 2, 20 -> average of 23 yr line. Their season average was over 28
Patriots starting position was average of 32.4, and that's excluding the interception, the fumble, and the onside kick that were in Chargers territory.

Obviously certain things beget other things...score lead to kick offs, often worse starting position. But it's feedback, because the worse starting position leads more often to punts, which lead to better field position, which lead to scores.

This isn't news, but that's a pretty big contrast in yesterday's game. Seemed like their kicker couldn't put it deep, but Ghost could.

KC's average staring position was over 30 this year. (Patriots was just under 29).

KC's opponent average starting position was over 25. Patriots was over 29. LAC: over 28.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Repeats of the two AFCCG in Denver are my biggest concern. False start penalties, Brady having two seconds before the rush gets home, just getting blown up on the lines with the noise.
 

Red Averages

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There is a 45 minute condensed replay of the KC@NE game from earlier this year on youtube. Highly recommend watching it. Some things that stuck out:

-- The Patriots had a lot of success running it.
-- The Patriots kicking game coverage was awful. An early squib kick gave the chiefs the ball near the 40 and then later in the game KC ran it back to the Pats 4 yard line.
-- Brady had an absolutely horrible sack fumble. Up by 8 with 2 min left in the 3rd and plenty of pass protection, he tried to keep the play alive and instead of throwing it away ended up getting sacked and fumbling at their own 30 yard line. Up 8 with 17 min left, that's a really tough turnover.
-- Patriots looked to have success chipping Kelce at the line (Hightower) several times, including one that led to an INT.
-- Mahomes was much better when he got out of the pocket. They really need to contain him in the pocket. Chip Kelce, keep Mahomes in the pocket are my two "easy" things to do.
-- They gave up a lot of big plays. In addition to the bad kicks and the Brady turnover at their own 30, they gave up a long TD to Hunt and a long TD to Hill. Also some longer passes. That needs to be prevented as much as possible.
-- The chiefs didn't have many long drives. Of course they didn't need to given the long plays and great field position.... but let's make them earn it this time.
-- The Pats were well ahead for most of the game, including up 15 at the half. Really frustrating to give it back.

Re-watching the game had me more confident in the Pats winning on Sunday.
 

wiffleballhero

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Whew!

Well, I just surfaced from a few minutes reading something called "chiefsplanet"

caveat emptor
: https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320346&page=61

It is, let's say, interesting.... like a Jets discussion, only less grammatically clear.

Lots of confidence and paranoia all rolled up into one big mess. Funny mix really.

A running observation is that -- shocker -- the Pats cheat their way to the home record, 3-5 on the road is the real story.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Whew!

Well, I just surfaced from a few minutes reading something called "chiefsplanet"

caveat emptor
: https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320346&page=61

It is, let's say, interesting.... like a Jets discussion, only less grammatically clear.

Lots of confidence and paranoia all rolled up into one big mess. Funny mix really.

A running observation is that -- shocker -- the Pats cheat their way to the home record, 3-5 on the road is the real story.
Aaron Hernandez jokes, cheating allegations, memes, and no in depth analysis. They make Gang Green look good.
 

Al Zarilla

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Whew!

Well, I just surfaced from a few minutes reading something called "chiefsplanet"

caveat emptor
: https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320346&page=61

It is, let's say, interesting.... like a Jets discussion, only less grammatically clear.

Lots of confidence and paranoia all rolled up into one big mess. Funny mix really.

A running observation is that -- shocker -- the Pats cheat their way to the home record, 3-5 on the road is the real story.
Also, that site makes you appreciate SOSH if for nothing else than readability. People post big, ugly pictures and there is a lot of space wasted on avatars and sigs. Result is not much space left for text and a very hard to read site on an iPhone. There is no multiple big enough to express how much I want to beat these morons compared with beating the Chargers.
 

pvg44

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Also, that site makes you appreciate SOSH if for nothing else than readability. People post big, ugly pictures and there is a lot of space wasted on avatars and sigs. Result is not much space left for text and a very hard to read site on an iPhone. There is no multiple big enough to express how much I want to beat these morons compared with beating the Chargers.
C'mon, you can find idiots everywhere on the internet without having to look too hard. I've been a Chiefs fan for more years than I'd care to count and participate in discussions and game/film breakdowns that are filled with people knowledgeable about the sport, much like SoSH. Arrowhead Pride is a site & twitter feed that has the usual fan stuff, but it focuses on some excellent film review. Frankly, reading the game thread of the Chiefs-Colts game here was filled with a lot of moronic & whiny shit, too.
 

johnmd20

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C'mon, you can find idiots everywhere on the internet without having to look too hard. I've been a Chiefs fan for more years than I'd care to count and participate in discussions and game/film breakdowns that are filled with people knowledgeable about the sport, much like SoSH. Arrowhead Pride is a site & twitter feed that has the usual fan stuff, but it focuses on some excellent film review. Frankly, reading the game thread of the Chiefs-Colts game here was filled with a lot of moronic & whiny shit, too.
Of course, this is SoSH, where Sean McVay is a golden boy but an idiot and Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck suck. Because acknowledging greatness in any form on another team is impossible to do.

Every message board is great and awful at the same time. It's the internet.
 

Boston Brawler

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It’s gonna be colder than a witches titty. Projected high for Sunday now 11 degrees.
I (unfortunately) am stationed at Fort Leavenworth for a year. 30 mins from KC. Local forecaster just said a high of 8, low of -3. We’re supposed to get snow on Saturday as well with a low around -10.
 

ObstructedView

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There is a 45 minute condensed replay of the KC@NE game from earlier this year on youtube. Highly recommend watching it. Some things that stuck out:

-- The Patriots had a lot of success running it.
-- The Patriots kicking game coverage was awful. An early squib kick gave the chiefs the ball near the 40 and then later in the game KC ran it back to the Pats 4 yard line.
-- Brady had an absolutely horrible sack fumble. Up by 8 with 2 min left in the 3rd and plenty of pass protection, he tried to keep the play alive and instead of throwing it away ended up getting sacked and fumbling at their own 30 yard line. Up 8 with 17 min left, that's a really tough turnover.
-- Patriots looked to have success chipping Kelce at the line (Hightower) several times, including one that led to an INT.
-- Mahomes was much better when he got out of the pocket. They really need to contain him in the pocket. Chip Kelce, keep Mahomes in the pocket are my two "easy" things to do.
-- They gave up a lot of big plays. In addition to the bad kicks and the Brady turnover at their own 30, they gave up a long TD to Hunt and a long TD to Hill. Also some longer passes. That needs to be prevented as much as possible.
-- The chiefs didn't have many long drives. Of course they didn't need to given the long plays and great field position.... but let's make them earn it this time.
-- The Pats were well ahead for most of the game, including up 15 at the half. Really frustrating to give it back.

Re-watching the game had me more confident in the Pats winning on Sunday.
I re-watched some of it too, and on balance it boosted my confidence - though I agree that the kick coverage and the big plays were maddening. It was also tough to be reminded that at one time Josh Gordon was a key part of the game plan, but they seem to have rediscovered an offensive identity over the past few weeks.
 

pappymojo

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I don't mind chalking the first two road losses up to the Pats viewing the first four weeks mainly as extended training camp. Not that they're trying to lose obviously, or not trying to win, but there's a lot of experimentation going on and they are ALWAYS far far far from a finished product at that point.

The Miami game - they always play crappy there and there was the once in a generation fluke play. Aberration.

The Steeler game...man they really shot themselves in the foot in that one and the refs were terribly inconsistent with the calls. Plus Brady's terrible interception. Very un-Patriot like game. Same for the Titans loss. They just got manhandled and that was pretty eye-opening.

So I'm ok with saying that SOME of their road woes were due to things that I just wouldn't worry about. But some of them...were very worrisome.
For the Titans game, weren't they down players on the OL? I did some googling and only found the injury report from that game.

TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle/back): Not expected to play
RB Sony Michel (knee): Questionable
LB Dont’a Hightower (knee): Questionable
OT Trent Brown (illness): Questionable
OG Shaq Mason (calf): Questionable
 

tims4wins

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For the Titans game, weren't they down players on the OL? I did some googling and only found the injury report from that game.

TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle/back): Not expected to play
RB Sony Michel (knee): Questionable
LB Dont’a Hightower (knee): Questionable
OT Trent Brown (illness): Questionable
OG Shaq Mason (calf): Questionable
Yeah and Brown missed time during the game. Cannon may have.

Honestly I can explain away all of their troubles on offense on the road. The first couple losses were somewhat personnel related (Sony / Edelman / Gordon), the Titans loss was also personnel / injury, and Pittsburgh was the (uncharacteristic) penalties. What can't be explained away is the road defense. They did play ok in Pittsburgh though.
 

normstalls

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Yeah and Brown missed time during the game. Cannon may have.

Honestly I can explain away all of their troubles on offense on the road. The first couple losses were somewhat personnel related (Sony / Edelman / Gordon), the Titans loss was also personnel / injury, and Pittsburgh was the (uncharacteristic) penalties. What can't be explained away is the road defense. They did play ok in Pittsburgh though.
I'll explain away the Detroit road D with injuries - Trey Flowers and Chung were out that game. Rowe was also out and I don't think Jackson had hit his groove yet.
 

DJnVa

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I'll explain away the Detroit road D with injuries - Trey Flowers and Chung were out that game. Rowe was also out and I don't think Jackson had hit his groove yet.
That was his first game, he only played 16% of the snaps on defense while Jonathan Jones played 75%. Against the Chargers, Jackson played 96% and Jones 11%, so yeah---complete reversal.

Jackson graded out at PFF as their #21 CB, while Jones was #73. Add in Gilmore being their #1 CB, and McCourty being #6, and that's a strength of ours now.
 

geoduck no quahog

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This guy says no correlation between offense and temperature:


The trendline shows a very low correlation (R-squared = 0.0082), which means that X-axis (Gametime Temp) has very little effect on the values in the Y-axis (Total Points). Moreover, the trendline has a negative slope so, if anything, total points scored drops a bit as temperatures rise.

At 4for4, we do adjust our projections for high winds (20+ MPH), but generally ignore precipitation and temperature, unless the forecast calls for a blizzard or a downpour. Unfortunately, gametime wind speed and precipitation data are not available at PFR.
Small sample size for games played in temps below 20F (I count something like 34). Why only 1 game below zero?
 

j44thor

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The emergence of JC Jackson is probably the most underrated story on the NE defense. Seems KC has a similar late season find CB in Chavarious Ward who we should probably get to know better.
 

joe dokes

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This guy says no correlation between offense and temperature:




Small sample size for games played in temps below 20F (I count something like 34). Why only 1 game below zero?
Daytime (when most games start) subzero temps just are pretty rare. Even the Titans game that everyone remembers wasn't below zero.
 

InstaFace

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Wish I could share the confidence that others seem to have. They have been generally awful on the road this year, against much lesser teams, with the exception of the Bears game. If the Pats play like they did yesterday they can absolutely win. They have not shown the ability to play that way on the road this year, though.
I wouldn't call myself "confident", I'd say rather that we're playing with house money. Given how things looked throughout much of the season, they are now fun to watch and playing their best football, as per usual. All I wanted from this season as of about October was to be back in the AFCCG, so they have delivered on my expectations. Beating the Chiefs, nevermind winning the SB, would be huge gravy. Could they do it? Sure. Will I be disappointed if they don't? Very briefly and not very much. The Chiefs are a worthy opponent and Andy Reid a brilliant strategic coach (if questionable tactically).

All that said, they have improved tremendously since Miami, and looked very focused on sunday until they took their foot off the gas a bit. I worry a bit about the OL holding up, I worry a bit about our linebackers being exploited (but thankfully, our secondary appears to be great this year, muting KC's #1 strength a bit), but I feel like we're in a position to give them our best shot and the risk of a total dud is minimal.

I'm mostly hoping that if this is indeed Gronk's last game, that our offense goes out on its shield. Use Gronk to attack the Chiefs' undersized CBs (who are all 5'10 or 5'11), or see if pro bowl OLB Dee Ford can keep up with him (6'2" 252lbs). Try a lot of play-action bombs or deep crossers that force the FS to decide quickly. There are people here who want to see a big running game or screen game but I think that plays to the strengths of the KC D (front 7 lateral quickness). I say light 'em up. Fake a punt, try the back-pages-of-the-playbook stuff.
 

wiffleballhero

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I wish I had seen more of the Chiefs games this year. These observations are more in the spirit of open questions rather than hot takes. But I've been watching enough Chiefs condensed games to start to have some opinions or questions:

1. If you have to pass, you're doomed! It seems the Chiefs defense really looks like a different beast if it is relatively obvious that you have to pass. If the Pats get into a situation where scoring is also a time sensitive affair, they are in trouble.
2. But the Chiefs do not tackle all that well. Is this true? In what I've been seeing, I see a fair number of broken tackles, above and beyond the call of duty.
3. Imagining some Achilles heel that Belichick is going to discover in Mahomes' game seems like just wishful thinking. He's really good! But in particular, Mahomes seems atypically capable of handling pressure up the middle? If every quarterback forever has been vulnerable to pressure up the middle, he seems less so, as if pressure up the middle comes at a cost at the second level (where he seems to quickly dump the ball for then big gains in that newly open field just past the now vacant line of scrimmage) or it comes at a cost out wide where he can simply out run the linemen. I wonder if this is true or just my fear while watching too many highlights.
4. But, when teams -- I noticed this in the Arizona game -- put only a few guys down in a three point stance and leave a fair amount of texture to the defense in the first few yards, and especially if they can get an edge rush, Mahomes looks a little more mortal.
5. Following up from #4 here, I wonder about where this conversation started with RedOctober arguing that the Pats need to blitz! Maybe, but it sure looks like blitzing needs to be of the zone blitz or delayed blitz variety, or else Mahomes is going to pick it apart.
6. Tyreek Hill is really, really scary. Do the Pats have anyone playing defense that fast?
 

jablo1312

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Sep 20, 2005
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Something to keep an eye on- the Pats have busted out a trick play (flea flicker, double pass, pass to the QB, etc) in their last 4 championship games. Wonder if we'll see another one on Sunday.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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If the game was being played in semi-normal conditions, my strong suspicion is that BB would lean toward a fairly conservative defensive gameplan, trying to minimize big plays and playing a lot of sub packages that tempt the Chiefs to run more than they normally do.

But the weather is a real X factor here. There may be no correlation between overall points and temperature (as nicely illustrated above) but I have to think extremely cold temperatures make it more difficult to execute longer passes, on both the throwing and receiving ends. So the weather argues for the opposite of BB's likely tendency, to play a more high risk game in which you force the other team to try to beat you over the top with some low percentage throws.
 

Al Zarilla

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C'mon, you can find idiots everywhere on the internet without having to look too hard. I've been a Chiefs fan for more years than I'd care to count and participate in discussions and game/film breakdowns that are filled with people knowledgeable about the sport, much like SoSH. Arrowhead Pride is a site & twitter feed that has the usual fan stuff, but it focuses on some excellent film review. Frankly, reading the game thread of the Chiefs-Colts game here was filled with a lot of moronic & whiny shit, too.
My main problem was with the board’s layout and lack of readability. Have you tried reading it on an iPhone? I think if I were a Chiefs fan I’d be using my laptop to gamethread.

So, what’s with the tomahawk chop? I would have thought that chant/rant would have been PC’d out of existence by now. I know, Atlanta Braves, FSU, but even the Cleveland Indians have gotten rid of Chief Yahoo.
 

DJnVa

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So the weather argues for the opposite of BB's likely tendency, to play a more high risk game in which you force the other team to try to beat you over the top with some low percentage throws.
That's kind of what they did against the Chargers. The Ravens Cover 0 defense. Leaves CBs on an island and tries to generate really quick pressure to force quick throws under duress. Rivers was pressured on something like 55% of his dropbacks Sunday.
 

Mystic Merlin

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If the game was being played in semi-normal conditions, my strong suspicion is that BB would lean toward a fairly conservative defensive gameplan, trying to minimize big plays and playing a lot of sub packages that tempt the Chiefs to run more than they normally do.

But the weather is a real X factor here. There may be no correlation between overall points and temperature (as nicely illustrated above) but I have to think extremely cold temperatures make it more difficult to execute longer passes, on both the throwing and receiving ends. So the weather argues for the opposite of BB's likely tendency, to play a more high risk game in which you force the other team to try to beat you over the top with some low percentage throws.
I think that’s the issue really: does Bill think balls 30-50 yards downfield are low percentage for Mahomes?

If it’s Rivers, out there, a healthy dose of Cover 1 and some Cover 0 don’t bother me too much because I know he’s not getting the ball 50 yards downfield, or 40 with zip.

If Hill burns a corner without safety help, I think it’s a touchdown. Mahomes’ arm is just that good.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I wouldn't call myself "confident", I'd say rather that we're playing with house money. Given how things looked throughout much of the season, they are now fun to watch and playing their best football, as per usual. All I wanted from this season as of about October was to be back in the AFCCG, so they have delivered on my expectations. Beating the Chiefs, nevermind winning the SB, would be huge gravy. Could they do it? Sure. Will I be disappointed if they don't? Very briefly and not very much. The Chiefs are a worthy opponent and Andy Reid a brilliant strategic coach (if questionable tactically).
Since you were responding to me, to be clear, I agree with every word of this. Someone up-thread said something like "this feels like a game the Pats should win". I'm not nearly that confident, but I completely agree they are playing with house money at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do win.
 

bakahump

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I don't know why you're giving the defense a pass on the Jacksonville, Detroit, or Tennessee games.
Not a pass per se. But I feel that had the Offense not been stymied (for whatever reason) like they were and scored what they are normally capable of for points of around 30. (28.1 Including these bad games). Then the D doesnt look as bad.
So IF they had scored on more drives (and not given the ball back or turned it over) then the Defense isnt put into so many bad situations, they dont give up 31/26/34 to the Jags Lions and Titans.
Instead if they give up 24/20/27 and the Offense does its job there is a good chance that they win 2 or more of those games.

Offense needs to do its job, so Defense can do its job. (you can say the reverse about a team built around a defense. But this team is obviously built around the offense and has been for 10 or so years.)

Obviously the Offense didnt do its job in 3 (4 if you count Pitt) of those games. But blaming the defense for not carrying the offense also seems disingenuous.

At the end of the day they lost these games and they are gone. I just think that a simple "lost on the road/Suck on the road" viewpoint does not convey the whole story when you account for Injurys, Absences, learning curves and "X Factors" like Patricia and Vrabel.

I know I keep referring to them and I cant prove anything, but something is weird that 2 of their 5 losses came from guys who were intimate with the system. Not saying any cheating. Just That Patricia and Vrabel knew the best and EXACT ways to attack this patriot team that only comes with intimate knowledge, and their teams did it flawlessly. Kudos to them.

But I dont think an impartial observer should or could count on a similar situation happening with the remaining Playoff teams.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Sep 10, 2017
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Something to keep an eye on- the Pats have busted out a trick play (flea flicker, double pass, pass to the QB, etc) in their last 4 championship games. Wonder if we'll see another one on Sunday.
I would expect it, although if a trick play is not unfurled they could very well have practiced one and just decided the defensive formation or game situation did not allow for it. In fact as shown by the Eagles last year and other Pats opponents, a lot of teams bring these plays to the biggest games. Seems like the preparation of trick plays serves more purpose than the one play it is executed, in that: a) players who feel the preparation over the course of the long season has gotten stale and they are "going through the motions" now have a new set of actions to practice and it gets them re-engaged in all practice activities; and b) it gives confidence to the entire team going in, like a feeling of "we know something you don't know".

It's kind of like the excitement when you and your buddies plan some elaborate practical joke, the feeling of giddiness going in yet you can't tip your hand so the focus has to be there...
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
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That's kind of what they did against the Chargers. The Ravens Cover 0 defense. Leaves CBs on an island and tries to generate really quick pressure to force quick throws under duress. Rivers was pressured on something like 55% of his dropbacks Sunday.
I think that’s the issue really: does Bill think balls 30-50 yards downfield are low percentage for Mahomes?

If it’s Rivers, out there, a healthy dose of Cover 1 and some Cover 0 don’t bother me too much because I know he’s not getting the ball 50 yards downfield, or 40 with zip.

If Hill burns a corner without safety help, I think it’s a touchdown. Mahomes’ arm is just that good.
I think both of you are absolutely right. And I'd add that Mahomes is also deadly when getting out of the pocket and extending plays and that's a big concern for Cover 1 or Cover 0 coverage schemes - there's only so long you can expect one guy to hold up, especially once a downfield WR starts freelancing and moving in unpredictable ways to get open.

These are the things that I think probably give BB nightmares and make him particularly prone to favoring a much more conservative approach than we played against San Diego, all else equal. But if its -5 degrees and even a guy with the arm talent of Mahomes is having trouble gripping and spinning a football, how does that change the calculus?