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2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by jon abbey, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Corbin isn't Scherzer or Sale, he's had one ace caliber season and that was in the NL West. I am not judging this postseason until Cashman is done, and he has a long way to go still.
     
  2. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    30,511
    They are. And the ones who throw 100 and have worse K/9 rates than Porcello are even rarer.
     
  3. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    To clarify, I'm not really happy or unhappy, but I know that Cashman has about a billion times more info than I do and he has been preparing for this offseason for more than two years now (in sharp contrast to the 2014 one, where they changed their plan on a dime and started throwing money at whoever would take it, a bit like the Phillies this winter). I will wait and see his entire plan before judging it.
     
  4. patoaflac

    patoaflac Member SoSH Member

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    907
    He better should, because I'm not certain the Steinbrenner's are very pleased that they have won 1 World Series since 2001 (the same as KC, Anaheim, White Sox, D-Backs, Marlins and Phillies, besides the Cubs and Astros; not great company).
     
  5. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, too bad none of us remember the five years before that. Can you please stop your occasional semi-trolling in this section as I've asked before? Thanks.
     
  6. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    it's not just money anymore, it's draft picks and international FA slotting.
     
  7. RIrooter09

    RIrooter09 Member SoSH Member

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    I understand how it works, but if Cashman truly has been ramping up to this off-season for several years why get cheap with the best player available at their biggest position of need?
     
  8. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    It's a legitimate question but pretty hard to answer until we see what he does instead.
     
  9. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Damned if you do and damned if you don't. If he signs with NYY at that contract, we all criticize it. If he doesn't, we all wonder what additional pitcher the Yankees will be left with. Cashman has been masterful the past couple of years and I've just come to trust that he has a plan b and c. If the Yankees were unwilling to go more than $20m or add the extra year for Corbin, it could mean that they are going to go hard after Machado + another pitcher who might be cheaper or safer than Corbin. I think there is a budget and the budget is somewhere under the 2nd tax threshold.
     
  10. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I do think there’s been enough talk about it that the Indians will actually move one of their SPs, but the Dodgers seem like by far the best fit, not NY. Verdugo and one of their many catcher prospects are both big areas of need and pre-arb, and CLE gets him out of the league.

    Andujar and Florial and Abreu for Kluber ($17M, 3 years left), who says no? CLE wanted Sheffield/Florial++ before, Cashman wouldn’t do it.
     
  11. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Rosenthal said the Indians may want to attach a bad contract like Kipnis to any Kluber or Bauer trade.
     
  12. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I say that's too much. I still agree that we should consider trading Andujar to get a top of the rotation guy but why do we also need to dump Florial and Abreu? Yikes
     
  13. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I’d take Kipnis. He can play the Neil Walker role.
     
  14. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Kipnis isn't making all that much money, I doubt he would move the needle too much.

    2019 Contract Status: Signed thru 2019, 6 yrs/$52.5M (14-19) & 20 team option
     
  15. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah, he has to prove he's worth the deal this year because last year was so out of character with the rest of his career, not just in the majors, but in the minors too. I'm not convinced he's worth ace money.

    Yankees may end up being very happy not signing him.
     
  16. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Missed this today but Boone was on Kay for 10 mins. He essentially says what I said yesterday on here, that the team is trying to improve on the margins and can probably be as good as anyone else on paper today.

     
  17. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    That's what they were saying last year then Giancarlo Stanton showed up. They're not out of any big player until that player is signed elsewhere and they could trade for most any player at any time.
     
  18. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Nobody is saying they're done. It's commentary about the state of the current roster. Depth is needed more than impact players are.
     
  19. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    And there isn't a person on this website that believes that they're going to take that approach
     
  20. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Agreed. I just think it means that Cashman isn't worried about losing out on players like Eovaldi or Keuchel. It's likely going to be Happ or someone much bigger than that via trade. It'll be Machado or it'll be a couple fillers.
     
    #520 crow216, Dec 5, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Cashman said again today that they were going after multiple relievers, I think one has to be Ottavino because of the Kahnle factor I mentioned before (best buds from COL and a big analytics guy), Kahnle is out of options and was a top 20 reliever in all of baseball coming into 2018, so if Ottavino could somehow get him back to 2017 form, that makes his undoubtedly pricy salary a way better deal.

    Ottavino and Miller would be pretty amazing, but there are a lot of options, including maybe getting a cost-controlled guy he likes in exchange for Sonny Gray (I have seen Lou Trivino suggested, for instance) so in Cashman I trust.
     
  22. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    18,697
    Signing a guy because he was pals with one of your pitchers and you think he could help fix him is a stretch. That better not be more than 1% of the point behind signing him.
     
  23. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Right, I think the next group behind Kimbrel, Ottavino/Britton/Robertson/Miller, is pretty interchangeable and different teams probably have different preferences.

    Really I'm just waiting on Cashman like the rest of us, did I mention Ottavino grew up in Park Slope as a Yankee fan? :) Here he is with his dad in 1995:

    [​IMG]

    https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/06/adam-ottavino-new-york-state-of-mind/
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Dear Brian,

    It's my birthday on Friday, so here is my latest gift wish list. You don't have to get them all right away, but something this week would be nice. Also, if you can do better than this, please do.

    Yr pal,
    Jon

    ================================

    As before, numbers are estimates/guesses using the Fangraphs projection list as a guideline (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/):

    Machado 10/280
    Morton 2/30
    Miller 2/24

    Trade Andujar, Adams and Abreu for Kluber, throw in one of the high ceiling teenagers if needed.
    Trade Gray and a prospect for Gennett.
    Trade Ellsbury and Clint Frazier for Carlos Santana plus $24M (Ellsbury is owed $47M, Santana $41M, so Dipoto would essentially be buying Clint for $30M).

    I think that would put NY roughly around $239M, so below the second tax threshold. It's really going for it, but if not now, when?

    Kluber
    Paxton
    Severino
    Tanaka
    Morton
    CC

    German
    Holder
    Kahnle
    Green
    Miller
    Betances
    Chapman

    Hicks CF
    Judge RF
    Machado 3B
    Stanton LF
    Santana 1B
    Sanchez C
    Torres SS
    Gennett 2B
    Voit DH
     
  25. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I'm still skeptical about paying for a 6th starter. If the options are 6th starter vs 2nd big reliever, what do you choose? I go for the starter but would be weary of the experiment.
     
  26. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    14,676
    JA, you'd be better off using MLBTR's projections, as they've been a lot closer so far. Fangraphs' have seemed ridiculously low, although they will probably end up being closer for Machado and Harper because the very top of the market is always going to be restricted to a degree by the CBT.

    Edit: I'd say take MLBTR's and add 10%-15% for good measure.
     
  27. hbk72777

    hbk72777 Member SoSH Member

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    Well, the Yankees won 100 games with Tanaka missing time, German and Gray pitching awful most of the time and Severino imploding in the second half.

    Paxton takes over for for the Montgomery slot, sign Happ and trade Gray, and everyone else stays healthy,it wouldn't be the worst thing to not add a 6th this year.

    Maybe wait for next year, with Cole and Sale available , and see if Baumgartner bounces back this year.. Montgomery also comes back as CC retires next year (if all goes well)



    (And I can't believe the crybaby Yankee fans on twitter. Cashman gets Paxton, but they're flipping out over not signing Eovaldi. 2 months and a nice postseason, and they think he's the second coming)
     
  28. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I don’t think having six starters means that you need to use a six man rotation, it’s a way to keep innings down if everyone is healthy, phantom DL stints like the Dodgers have used a lot in recent years.
     
  29. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Wouldn’t a Michael Brantley be an easier and cheaper alternative at 1st than Carlos Santana?
     
  30. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    20,802
    Can he play there? I love his hitting approach. He is exactly the kinda hitter the Yankees need. I’d also see if Markakis is open to grabbing a first place glove.
     
  31. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    16,225
     
  32. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Santana is actually a good defensive 1B, which is why I have him bumping Voit to DH above. It's nice that agents think everyone can magically play competent 1B with no experience there (Harper too), but that's not the case in reality.
     
  33. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Schoop seems to be signing with MIN for 1/7, damn.
     
  34. JohntheBaptist

    JohntheBaptist Member SoSH Member

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    You forgot to ask Brian for him on your birthday wish list.
     
  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I have Gennett there instead, figured I might as well go for it. Seven hours until my big day, Brian!
     
  36. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Torre-YES also signing with the Twins
     
  37. curly2

    curly2 Member SoSH Member

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    I thought he would be a Yankee. Could that be an indication Machado is in the works?
     
  38. RIrooter09

    RIrooter09 Member SoSH Member

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    4,211
    Or they just didn't like Schoop.
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I think it's this more than anything, I think Machado is in the works either way but they still need a stopgap for one season until Didi is back.

    Someone like Hechevarria or Iglesias might be a better fit than moving Gleyber to SS because I think he is much better defensively at 2B than SS (the metrics had him as quite bad at both positions last year but I am certain he will be a great defensive 2B this year or next if he is allowed to keep playing there).
     
  40. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I guess I keep forgetting the possibility of them leaving Andujar at 3B because that is so obviously not going to work, but I guess I can see them only signing Machado and going with Andujar/Machado/Gleyber at 3B/SS/2B until Didi is back, but I'd much rather the Andujar 3B experiment be over now, especially if they end up with three lefties in the rotation.
     
  41. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    38,649
    Also they may be holding the spot open for Kipnis who CLE would like to dump in a Kluber or Bauer deal.
     
  42. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    This offseason is torture.
     
  43. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    The Yankees have shown fiscal restraint, haven’t given up key assets, and remain in position to land the best player on the market (Machado).

    Like Cashman said, it’s hard to improve a 100 win team.
     
  44. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    And they might have already gotten the best pitcher to switch teams this offseason
     
  45. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I like your subtle way of implying Eovaldi is better than Paxton
     
  46. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I didn't read it like that, there is a lot of uncertainty on both those guys but they can be unhittable aces at their best. I personally love Paxton, he was the guy I was most scared about potentially facing in the 2017 wild card.

    Great job by DD filling in holes on the fly with him and Pearce and now keeping them both and going for it again, Cashman has his work cut out. Not many guys have been ridden as hard as Eovaldi was in the postseason though, it will be interesting to see if that impacts his start, but he obviously has a special arm.
     
  47. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I find it hard to believe that CLE will actually trade Kluber or Bauer to NY if at all possible, as opposed to the much more obvious Dodgers or Braves or any other NL team that would offer something close to NY's top package. Unless they like Andujar or Florial that much, I guess...
     
  48. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    It was more like not wanting to start a whole debate.
     
  49. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    No one thinks of Sheffield as an asset?
     
  50. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Sheffield is of course an asset, I hesitate to speak for Semper but maybe he means Sheffield was likely not going to be a big impact guy for NY for a year or two, still 22 and not great control.

    Sheffield and Florial + 1-2 other pieces might have gotten them Kluber, Cashman is trying to hold onto Florial (hence the Paxton deal which did not require Florial) but his options are shrinking.
     

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