2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
I don't think this is a totally serious question, but Cashman has done an amazing job closing the gap between NY and HOU/CLE/BOS that existed in August 2016, all of those teams had a bunch of young core guys in place already then and NY had literally none. The only thing that has really gone wrong with the plan (not counting Didi's injury which is hopefully something he'll fully recover from, we'll see) is Jose Fernandez's death (otherwise he'd be a FA this winter and had already talked about ending up with Stanton in NY someday).
So Cashman really couldn't have positioned the team much better but now this final* stage is different, it involves adding long-term commitments and players that you can't easily demote or trade if they don't work out. If you trade for Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks or Luke Voit and they aren't good, they're easy to jettison (hello Dustin Ackley), but that's not the case for big money FA deals. I am slightly worried about Cashman's ability to finish* building this team, but I also know that he knows that a good bit of his career's reputation will end up stemming from what he decides to do the next month or two, and while it's risky to go for it and easier to wait for the 'perfect' move/s, sometimes you need to go all in*.
*The asterisks are because of course GMing a baseball organization is an ongoing thing, it's not really ever final or finished or even 'all in', but you get my point.
I just don't see this as being THAT difficult. They have plenty of money to spend, a ton of young assets, and the team is already terrific. Sign Machado. Trade for Greinke, who is still really really good. They have plenty of chips to make that kind of deal.
The team would then have essentially added Machado, Paxton, and Greinke to a 100-win team. That's a significantly improved team that could win 108+.
The team would then have essentially added Machado, Paxton, and Greinke to a 100-win team. That's a significantly improved team that could win 108+.
I agree, as long as Hal has given the go-ahead to put the payroll into BOS territory (what a strange sentence that is to write), I think this team will end up amazing, with 4-5 more additions from here. I'm just a bit nervous currently and pointing out that this is a different phase of the rebuild.
Yeah, totally, but there was a lot of owner interference along the way too, especially with the way they handled trying to get under the cap and reset the tax originally in 2013-2014. The 2014 FA debacle, where they were out of the market until they realized (1-2 years too late) that they were not realistically going to get under and they needed to just go for it, was largely owner-driven as best I can tell.
This on the other hand is pure Cashman, this is the plan he talked Hal into in August 2016 and it is close to being finished with a handful of acquisitions (some pricy) to fill holes this winter.
NY's 2012 team was pretty good, they made the ALCS before getting obliterated there by the Tigers. Cashman clearly decided after that that the team was too old, and he went about dismantling it as quickly as possible, within reason. You can definitely ding him for execution between then and summer 2016 but I think ownership was a big obstacle for the first part of that.
I've had mixed feeling about Cashman for years. YES (sic) he has delivered a consistently above average team for years, and generally a post-season team, and his trading/shuffling the bullpen pieces a few years ago to get a largely empty farm system re-stocked with good young players was a slick piece of work and worthy of kudos. But putting aside the heavy lifting done by Stick and Watson in assembling the 1996-2000 teams, if the yardstick is rings, Cashman, with all the advantages he has had to work with, with 1 ring in the past 18 years, I think it fair to say he comes up a little short.
Cashman was part lucky and part very smart with Chapman in the 2015-16 offseason. Lucky that the Reds foolishly felt they HAD to deal him at all costs immediately instead of letting him reestablish his value, and smart in apparently being the first one to come with with a Michael Corleone pitch of "My offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally."
The three Chapman deals -- getting him for nothing, trading him for something (and something really good) and reacquiring him for nothing -- really helped make the 2017 and beyond Yankees.
Well, they got Gleyber out of that, but that's really it. Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Andujar, Betances, all of those guys are 'homegrown' (I hate this word because it sounds like teams raise them from infants, but there's not really a better one).
The Chapman deal was one piece. Cashman is a trade opportunist and constantly finds value for very little. Didi, Hicks, Voit, and Stanton are all good examples.
I agree with that Greinke/Machado is the best play. Unless he has a secret Arenado plan.
Cashman has been really good but of course ultimately he needs a title from this group to be an unqualified success, just as he needed a title after 2008's spending spree. Similarly, the Red Sox created a pretty clear window that ends after 2019 (and then they will have to reconfigure to some degree); if Dombrowski had come away from that stretch with three or four division titles and no pennants it would have looked OK but very different.
What Cashman has already done is get to the ALCS and the ALDS in the two years BEFORE the window was really supposed to open.
I'm really rooting for him to screw it all up.
Cashman has been really good but of course ultimately he needs a title from this group to be an unqualified success, just as he needed a title after 2008's spending spree. Similarly, the Red Sox created a pretty clear window that ends after 2019 (and then they will have to reconfigure to some degree); if Dombrowski had come away from that stretch with three or four division titles and no pennants it would have looked OK but very different.
What Cashman has already done is get to the ALCS and the ALDS in the two years BEFORE the window was really supposed to open.
I'm really rooting for him to screw it all up.
Didi was a steal, but no one foresaw what he turned into, I highly doubt Cashman did; he was acquired as a stopgap. Hicks was underrated and a great move. Voit I think the jury is still out on - he could be an Aaron Small or could turn out to be a Millar type. Stanton was a gift from CI.
Cashman is a very good GM who can probably blame a lot of his mistakes on ownership, but it’s pure speculation on which where his fault or not. And he’s got a pretty big margin of error. I’m shocked he’s been there so long to be honest, only because of meddling and that I think he’d want a bigger challenge. I have a good friend that went to college with him and she tells me how intelligent he is and how good a guy he is. Nothing but high regards for him, albeit while acknowledging his circumstances.
Last edited:
I don't think Greinke is a real possibility for NY, even if ARI was wiling to take Ellsbury as part of the return. I don't see it on a quick search, but Cashman went out of his way a few weeks ago to say that over the years when they have brought in FAs to talk to, only twice did he/they think immediately 'this is not a fit that will work' and one of those was Greinke (he didn't name the other one).
I was playing with the Steamer projections for 2019 on Fangraphs yesterday, very interesting for context. It helped me see why (possibly) Cashman didn't want to commit to six years for Corbin when the similarly projected Happ would be available for three years, and also make it even more clear that Kluber should be the target if at all possible:
https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d
Paxton is very high on that list, FWIW, tied with Snell and Bauer.
https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d
Paxton is very high on that list, FWIW, tied with Snell and Bauer.
What specifically do you mean? That list has him as the 10th best starter in the AL by WAR next year.
I thought I answered that pretty clearly already: "when the similarly projected Happ would be available for three years".
Fair enough, I misread to think you were saying Corbin wasn't projected well. Though, these obviously say nothing beyond 2019.
Grienke also has that no trade clause, and there has always been speculation that he would be a terrible fit in NY.
I just did a search and found this article, quoting Heyman:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/624846-greinke-tried-to-talk-yankees-into-trading-for-him
To be fair, it is from 2010, a lot can change in 8 years
I just did a search and found this article, quoting Heyman:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/624846-greinke-tried-to-talk-yankees-into-trading-for-him
To be fair, it is from 2010, a lot can change in 8 years
Yeah, his depression issues would not work with the NY rags.The 'go for the jugular' back covers alone would crush his spirit
It wasn’t depression it was social anxiety. And whether between meds or counseling he’s overcome them. He’d be fine.
OK, I found it, this is from a 11/30 NY Post story on Corbin:
“As he prepares for his 21st season on the job, Cashman said he has experienced two face-to-face meetings in which “I walked out going, ‘We are crossing that one off the list. That’s not a fit for us in any way, shape or form.’” One of those was Corbin’s Diamondbacks teammate Zack Greinke, whom Arizona would like to trade.”
“As he prepares for his 21st season on the job, Cashman said he has experienced two face-to-face meetings in which “I walked out going, ‘We are crossing that one off the list. That’s not a fit for us in any way, shape or form.’” One of those was Corbin’s Diamondbacks teammate Zack Greinke, whom Arizona would like to trade.”
I'm probably the only one, but I want no part of Machado. When he sneezes, it's a headline. When he doesn't run out a ground ball, it's a huge headline. He doesn't want to play third base. And that's on top of the expense.
I'd rather spend the money on someone like Keuchel, plus bringing back Robertson and Britton.
I'd rather spend the money on someone like Keuchel, plus bringing back Robertson and Britton.
This is what I want to happen and since there is no news, I'll waste bandwith.
Trade Ellsbury and Frazier to the M's for Santana
Trade Andujar and two other studs for Kluber
Sign Machado to play third, sign Harper to play right/left, move Stanton to DH
Sign Happ, Robertson, Miller
Trade Gray for a minor leaguer or two
Lineup
Hicks CF
Judge RF
Harper LF
Stanton DH
Machado 3B
Sanchez C
Santana 1B
Torres 2B
Hechevarria SS
Bench: Gardner, Romine, Wade
Kluber SP
Severino SP
Paxton SP
Tanaka SP
Happ SP
Sabathia SP
Chapman RP
Betances RP
Holder RP
Robertson RP
Miller RP
Kahnle RP
A man can dream ...
Trade Ellsbury and Frazier to the M's for Santana
Trade Andujar and two other studs for Kluber
Sign Machado to play third, sign Harper to play right/left, move Stanton to DH
Sign Happ, Robertson, Miller
Trade Gray for a minor leaguer or two
Lineup
Hicks CF
Judge RF
Harper LF
Stanton DH
Machado 3B
Sanchez C
Santana 1B
Torres 2B
Hechevarria SS
Bench: Gardner, Romine, Wade
Kluber SP
Severino SP
Paxton SP
Tanaka SP
Happ SP
Sabathia SP
Chapman RP
Betances RP
Holder RP
Robertson RP
Miller RP
Kahnle RP
A man can dream ...
I've been saying 10/280 for a while, I also have always expected PHI to outbid NY for him, so we'll see if 8/240 or 10/280 is enough.
It’s pretty ridiculous as a whole because it would put NY into the highest penalty level for years to come, zero flexibility. If you dropped Santana and Happ and got someone to still take Ellsbury’s money, I think it would maybe enter the fringe of possible, that would be around $250-$260M.
I wouldnt be surprised if NY gets neither. I can easily see the Phillies giving Manny 10/300 plus and the CWS giving Harper whatever. If they arent going 300 mil for Machado, I cant see them doing it for Harper. And Harper already had a 300 mil deal on the table
That would be bad for the Yankees IMO because the FA market isn’t great next year. This market has the best set of young players for a long time. They should overspend now. Why hold their firepower? They should get Machado, no matter what, IMO.
I don't think it's about only about payroll for this or next year, it's about losing flexibility to sign big players who might pop up for the next 5-10 years. Is the team willing to have two players on the roster committed to for the next 9 years? Will they be able to give Judge, Sanchez, and Severino contracts if they get Machado or Harper?
This I don’t think is much of a consideration, those guys are all pre-arb still. It’s a question of how much they’re comfortable with overpaying, 10/280 would still be one of the couple biggest deals ever.
Their window is open for the next 4-6 years. They can contend with the current roster but they wouldn’t be favourites. If they spend money, they would be the prohibitive favourites every year. What’s the point in having a lot of cost-controlled players if you don’t fill out the roster with the best FAs? Especially when you’re the Yankees and you can afford to go way over the cap for 4-5 years in a row.
Cashman has been setting things up for this offseason. It would be a huge waste of opportunity if they didn’t spend.
All of that is true, but it's also possible that there is a better overall use of the money than on Machado or Harper depending on how pricy they end up being. I agree that if they don't end up at at least $230-$240M this year, it will be a massively wasted opportunity and will quite likely impact my level of fandom going forward.
I mean, how high should Cashman go on Machado? Is 15/450 too much? 10/280 seems like a good general place to draw the line.
Machado is projected to produce something like 4-5 win per year for the next 5 years. Even given a discounted rate of $8m per win, he’s worth $30m a year. I think you’ll have to do something like 10/$320m and it’d be worth the risk given your situation.
Ken Rosenthal today, Gennett would be a nice fit for NY as I've said a bunch of times this winter:
"Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett averaged 25 home runs and an .859 OPS the past two seasons, but projects to earn $10.7 million in his final year of arbitration before hitting the open market.
The Reds, sources say, would like to move him.
A trade of Gennett would open second base for top prospect Nick Senzel and also create other possibilities, such as the signing of free agent Josh Harrison, a Cincinnati native who can play both infield and outfield.
The problem for the Reds in trying to deal Gennett is the free-agent market is flooded with second basemen, from DJ LeMahieu to Jed Lowrie to Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy to Ian Kinsler to Neil Walker."
"Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett averaged 25 home runs and an .859 OPS the past two seasons, but projects to earn $10.7 million in his final year of arbitration before hitting the open market.
The Reds, sources say, would like to move him.
A trade of Gennett would open second base for top prospect Nick Senzel and also create other possibilities, such as the signing of free agent Josh Harrison, a Cincinnati native who can play both infield and outfield.
The problem for the Reds in trying to deal Gennett is the free-agent market is flooded with second basemen, from DJ LeMahieu to Jed Lowrie to Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy to Ian Kinsler to Neil Walker."
I'm sure Cashman doesn't want to bid again himself. I'll be a little surprised if he doesn't match the high offer from Philly or whoever for Machado.
Can't post from Twitter right now but Joel Sherman saying Cashman is asking the Reds for top prospects in return for Gray. Reds not biting.
This doesn't bode well for the Yankees since the Indians reportedly aren't interested in reacquiring Clint Frazier.
Morosi:
Source: #Indians interested in #Dodgers OF Alex Verdugo as part of Corey Kluber trade talks. Cleveland is looking for outfield bats, and Verdugo is the Dodgers' top prospect, according to @MLBPipeline. @MLB @MLBNetwork
Morosi:
Source: #Indians interested in #Dodgers OF Alex Verdugo as part of Corey Kluber trade talks. Cleveland is looking for outfield bats, and Verdugo is the Dodgers' top prospect, according to @MLBPipeline. @MLB @MLBNetwork
Is that arrogance or some kind of 4D negotiating strategy? There is no case to be made that a guy who has performed as poorly as Gray—and was effectively (entirely?) benched in the playoffs—should fetch anything near “top prospects.”
You must not be aware of the Cashman trade strategy with the Reds. We'll give you garbage prospects for a top closer but will give you garbage for your top prospects.
Can't blame him for trying that with the morons who run the Reds.
There’s a lot of demand for him actually, his FIP was much better than his ERA and his road numbers were very strong.
He got spooked by pitching in a bandbox. Why would the Reds, who also play in a bandbox, be comforted by his road numbers?
11 different teams have supposedly inquired about him. Why are we getting indignant about the latest rumor here?