2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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I don't know that much about Camargo but both of those proposed deals seem like NY would have to add more. Profar I thought was TEX's 3B with Beltre retired, guys like Gennett or Schoop are a better match for Gray (plus a prospect or two) as both are somewhat pricy, in the final year of their deals and have young guys behind them who their teams want to open up a spot for.
 

jon abbey

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Also I keep reading that first sentence from the Sherman tweet and still not understanding it. I think ATL wants Camargo to be their Marwin Gonzalez and play all over the field, filling in where needed.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Also I keep reading that first sentence from the Sherman tweet and still not understanding it. I think ATL wants Camargo to be their Marwin Gonzalez and play all over the field, filling in where needed.
I think he's implying that teams know Camargo is an extra piece for Atl, thus you might expect his price to drop. But then he says it wouldn't "even losing 3b."

He basically made up an argument then argued against it in a poorly worded sentence.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, I see, essentially 'even though Camargo isn't their 3B anymore, he's still a big piece for them'. Thanks!
 

jon abbey

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Didn’t Donaldson only sign for one year? That doesn’t even make sense.
I mean, it is a very good situation for him (veteran leader for a ton of exciting young talent) and I can see them trying to sell it to him as a redo of his 2018 (same salary, $23M) since he put up 36 bWAR the 5 years before that (I can't get over this number, so impressive) and then had his one dud year in his FA year. He wasn't going to get more than that for this season, so he is betting on himself.

But fully agreed it seems like very odd timing for him to come off the board before Machado, but they have the same agent and it is a terrible conflict of interest. It'd make a little more sense if he would be the clearly best 3B next winter, but Arenado and Rendon are both still potentially out there, 6 and 5 years younger respectively.
 

jon abbey

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Gleyber's defensive versatility is making Cashman's job easier this winter, as he can cover any of 2B/SS/3B defensively if needed (2B ideally as his best asset is his range in all directions), so many ways he can go with adding infielders.
 

jon abbey

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This could change, but right now this is what I'm hoping for (for numbers, I am consulting the Fangraphs estimates although not using them exactly, https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/):

Machado-10/280
Corbin-5/110
Ottavino-3/36
Robertson-2/24

I think that puts them around $245M not counting Gray, and they still need an infielder, maybe Schoop if he is non-tendered. If they end up in the 250s, it might be worth it for Cashman to package prospects along with Ellsbury in order to get back under $246M.
 

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Do the Yankees lose a 1st rounder by signing Corbin? I know that the system has changed over the past few years.
 

jon abbey

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Do the Yankees lose a 1st rounder by signing Corbin? I know that the system has changed over the past few years.
Good question, I had to hunt down the answer and this is the one that applies here:

"A team that neither exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period."

Also if they go over $246M (as BOS did last year and very likely will again), their 1st round pick drops 10 places. I thought there was an additional international penalty here also, but I don't see that.
 

chawson

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Gleyber's defensive versatility is making Cashman's job easier this winter, as he can cover any of 2B/SS/3B defensively if needed (2B ideally as his best asset is his range in all directions), so many ways he can go with adding infielders.
Is Gleyber well regarded defensively? I had always thought he was fine, but just looked at his positional breakdown last year and saw that he had a -16.7 UZR/150 at 2B and -21.5 UZR/150 at short, albeit in 150 innings.
 

jon abbey

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He did not look good in limited time at SS but I think the metrics are wrong when it comes to him at 2B. He did make too many errors on really routine plays (chalking that up to a lack of focus at 21) but his range is remarkable and he looks like he should be a major defensive asset if he stays there. As a prospect everyone expected him to stick at SS, hence his top 5 overall ranking.
 

DanoooME

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Good question, I had to hunt down the answer and this is the one that applies here:

"A team that neither exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period."

Also if they go over $246M (as BOS did last year and very likely will again), their 1st round pick drops 10 places. I thought there was an additional international penalty here also, but I don't see that.
I believe this is what you are looking for per MLBTR

  • If the signing team contributes to revenue sharing but didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). If this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give up its third-highest pick for the second signing and so forth, though it doesn’t appear as if that team would lose any additional international pool money would also be involved.
  • If the signing team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, if this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give its up third-highest and sixth-highest picks for the second signing, and so forth. Five teams look to be paying the luxury tax this season (fake edit - written in 2017) — the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Nationals.
I have that page bookmarked.
 

jon abbey

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I believe this is what you are looking for per MLBTR

  • If the signing team contributes to revenue sharing but didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). If this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give up its third-highest pick for the second signing and so forth, though it doesn’t appear as if that team would lose any additional international pool money would also be involved.
  • If the signing team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, if this team signed more than one QO free agent, it would give its up third-highest and sixth-highest picks for the second signing, and so forth. Five teams look to be paying the luxury tax this season (fake edit - written in 2017) — the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Nationals.
I have that page bookmarked.
Yeah, it's good to reference. Actually I already posted the relevant part of that in the post you quoted, my question was if there is additional international money lost if a team goes over the top limit (this year it's $246M) but from what I could find, there is not.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Would you take Cano if it means getting Diaz?

That would at least make me think about it, but I'd still rather they both go to the Mets and nowhere else in the AL.
 

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Would you take Cano if it means getting Diaz?

That would at least make me think about it, but I'd still rather they both go to the Mets and nowhere else in the AL.
It all depends on the money. No team is going to want to take on much of the salary of a steroid user who is 36 years old. If we can outright sign a reliever, it might just make more sense to do that. Diaz is going to cost something we probably would be unwilling to give up.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'd still say no on Cano. Those last couple of years could be brutal. Diaz is great, but I have plenty of confidence in Cashman and his crew being able to develop and/or acquire RP talent as necessary. One of the front office's greatest areas of success has been with developing/signing/trading RP both for the team's bullpen use and to acquire young talent for the farm system.
 

jon abbey

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Fangraphs suggests that Cano for Ellsbury works pretty well on its own:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/making-a-robinson-cano-trade-work/
Not their best work, they compare the three guys NY signed the same winter as Cano to Cano and conclude that they should have signed Cano instead, but really it couldn't have been more clear both then and now that the right decision was to not sign any of them.

"The relevant question isn’t what should have been done five years ago (give Cano the money) or whether the Yankees would have been better off with Cano (they would have)."

No and no, their cost-controlled 21 year old 2B Torres says hello, somehow not mentioned once in this piece.

So from a pure negative value perspective, Cano for Ellsbury is probably pretty close, but given the alternatives it makes no sense for NY. If Segura or Diaz is included, then I think something could be worked out, but then again I don't know Cashman's plan for the rest of this winter.
 

jon abbey

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I haven't heard much about it in recent days but I'm still expecting NY to sign Didi to one additional year rather than offering him arb in his final season, it just makes too much sense all around. So instead of NY paying him $10-$12M for a year he'll miss much or all of and then losing him to free agency, a 2/20 deal would seem to make sense for all parties, unless Didi insists on FA next year in which case I'd non-tender him and figure it out.
 

jon abbey

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Also, pour one out for Ronald Torreyes, officially traded to the Cubs today (for cash or a PTBNL). Everyone sing:

Bye bye Ronald Torreyes
Miss you in the saddest fashion
Bye bye Ronald Torreyes
You’re 5000 candles in the wind

 

jon abbey

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Since we seem to be stuck as far as actual news, let me go back to that Cano reexamination article and what it leaves out...

Ellsbury has certainly been a massive (predictable) bust but McCann and Beltran were solid signings, and also NY got prospects for both when they were eventually moved:

Albert Abreu (NY's #3 prospect currently) and Jorge Guzman (the main piece traded for Stanton) for McCann.

Dillon Tate (the main piece traded for Britton), Erik Swanson (the secondary piece traded for Paxton) and Nick Green (3.32 ERA in 132 innings in high A/AA this year at 23) for Beltran.

Cano is looking like the opposite, a net negative including his contract.
 

moondog80

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Cano is likely a net negative for the rest of his deal, but he has been a net positive so far. If he hits the relatively modest targets for the next 5 years (8.6 WAR total), the deal as a whole will be positive by about 1.5 million.
 

jon abbey

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Cano is likely a net negative for the rest of his deal, but he has been a net positive so far. If he hits the relatively modest targets for the next 5 years (8.6 WAR total), the deal as a whole will be positive by about 1.5 million.
I was adding another component to the performance calculus, NY got five prospects when moving their guys signed that winter, and SEA looks like they may be sending Diaz to the Mets to get rid of Cano’s (Passan reporting a few minutes ago).
 

moondog80

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I was adding another component to the performance calculus, NY got five prospects when moving their guys signed that winter, and SEA looks like they may be sending Diaz to the Mets to get rid of Cano’s (Passan reporting a few minutes ago).
Passan reports that the Mariners will pay 10 mil per year in additon to sending Diaz. If that's all there is, they are getting hosed. 70 mil for 5 years of Cano is a decent enough deal on its own, certainly not an overpay that requires Diaz to balance the scales.
 

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I was adding another component to the performance calculus, NY got five prospects when moving their guys signed that winter, and SEA looks like they may be sending Diaz to the Mets to get rid of Cano’s (Passan reporting a few minutes ago).
Another "Mets" move. I just don't understand that organization. Obviously we need to see the full details of the potential deal but I just don't understand why they couldn't get this production out of the FA market. I would bet my left foot that in year or two, they are packaging one of their starters with Cano to re-offload that contract.

Edit: Hrm...maybe changes if they are only paying $70m for Cano
 

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I don't understand why these rebuilding teams are so hot to shed salary rather than using it to buy prospects. It didn't make any sense at all for Miami to trade Stanton for basically nothing and it doesn't make any sense for Seattle to do the same for Cano. Those players still have value. It would make the most sense to pay for most of their deals and get the best prospects you can.
 

jon abbey

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Sherman is reporting that Passan's reporting is very premature.
 

jon abbey

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Passan reports that the Mariners will pay 10 mil per year in additon to sending Diaz. If that's all there is, they are getting hosed. 70 mil for 5 years of Cano is a decent enough deal on its own, certainly not an overpay that requires Diaz to balance the scales.
Kiley McDaniel tweets:

"Cano’s contract is about $45M underwater as @craigjedwards showed this week. Edwin Diaz is something like a $60M asset. If it’s just those 2 w/no money, our prospect asset values say a 45+/50 FV bridges that gap (NYM’s 4th-7th best prospect). money from SEA would buy more prospects"
 

jon abbey

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I don't understand why these rebuilding teams are so hot to shed salary rather than using it to buy prospects. It didn't make any sense at all for Miami to trade Stanton for basically nothing and it doesn't make any sense for Seattle to do the same for Cano. Those players still have value. It would make the most sense to pay for most of their deals and get the best prospects you can.
Stanton was different because he had a full no-trade and would only accept a deal to a few teams, only one of which actually wanted him and his deal. Cano also has a full no-trade but seems happy to waive it although no one has actually asked him yet. I agree with you in general but it depends on the specific situation too.
 

moondog80

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Kiley McDaniel tweets:

"Cano’s contract is about $45M underwater as @craigjedwards showed this week. Edwin Diaz is something like a $60M asset. If it’s just those 2 w/no money, our prospect asset values say a 45+/50 FV bridges that gap (NYM’s 4th-7th best prospect). money from SEA would buy more prospects"
That seems in the ballpark. If the reports are true that the Mariners are giving Diaz AND paying 50 mil, then the market is badly underestimating how good Cano still is, and I'm mad the Red Sox aren't somehow taking advantage of this. But most likely, the reports are not true.
 

chawson

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I could see Cespedes coming back over Bruce, unless the M's wanna make Bruce a full-time first baseman. Whatever it is might be setting up a Syndergaard trade with the Padres (or wherever).
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, it's funny how many of the top FAs this winter seem to prefer NY for different reasons, the agents can't be thrilled about that part of it.
 

jon abbey

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Ken Rosenthal‏Verified account @Ken_Rosenthal 10h10 hours ago

Very interesting 27-year-old second baseman could hit open market tomorrow. Sources indicating strong possibility #Brewers will non-tender 2017 All-Star Jonathan Schoop. Team evaluating all options, including trade. Schoop projected for $10.1M in arbitration, per @mlbtraderumors.

Bumping my own Jonathan Schoop post from a few days ago, I could see 1/9 or 1/10 if this is the guy Cashman wants happening very quickly.

I still think NY needs to bring in two infielders with Didi out for the bulk of the year and a question mark after that and with Andujar ideally a DH. The non-tender deadline is Friday and one guy to keep an eye on is Jonathan Schoop, who is supposed to make $10-$11M in his final year of arb if MIL actually offers it to him.
Schoop wasn't very good last year but in 2017 in his age 25 season he had a 5.2 fWAR season in the AL East, 32 HRs and 105 RBIs and a .841 OPS. Scooter Gennett is in a similar position (last year of team control at around $9-$10M and younger cheaper options behind him), he is probably a better option but he would cost more in terms of talent probably and Schoop has the AL East experience already, plus he has known Didi since they grew up together in Curacao and of course he has played with Machado for years if he ends up here. Just a thought...
 

jon abbey

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I don't think this has changed for a bit despite the Temptation of Edwin Diaz, but I am still hoping for:

Machado
Corbin
Ottavino
Robertson
Schoop

Trade Gray and Cessa and a few others, and let's get it on. I think that would put NY roughly around $257M, above the top limit. If they need to get under $246M, they could presumably staple Ellsbury and Clint Frazier somewhere, but that seems like a waste.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Stark says the Yankees are interested in Corbin and Happ or Eovaldi.

A six-man rotation of Corbin, Paxton, Happ, Severino, Tanaka and Sabathia would be awesome.
 

jon abbey

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Stark says the Yankees are interested in Corbin and Happ or Eovaldi.

A six-man rotation of Corbin, Paxton, Happ, Severino, Tanaka and Sabathia would be awesome.
Yeah, I was wondering if they'd consider that, interesting. That would probably mean they only sign one reliever, not two.
 

jon abbey

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A little surprised there's no discussion of the Sanchez-for-Realmuto rumor, unless you all just think it's so unlikely as to not merit any further discussion.
https://fancredsports.com/articles/jon-heyman-astros-dodgers-yankees-all-showing-in
I don't honestly believe either team would do that, so yeah, didn't think it was worth discussing. I do wish they'd pair Sanchez with someone better than Romine, but I wished for that all last winter too and here we are.
 

jon abbey

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Jonathan Schoop has officially been non-tendered so he is a free agent.