2018 NBA offseason thread

[Sam Ray Not]

Pretty crazy how fallow the market for traditional centers has become, especially ones like Monroe who don’t really defend the rim or switch.

Defensive shortcomings notwithstanding: Monroe is 28, long and strong, extremely durable, a (seemingly) high character guy, and coming off a season in which he averaged 18 pts per 36 on .600 ts / 12 reb / 4 ast. Those facts alone used to command a whole lot more than the vet min. I would gladly have taken him on the Warriors at that price if we had struck out on Boogie and Kyle O’Quinn. His passing skills in particular would have made him a pretty nice fit alongside Steph/Klay/KD for 10-12 mpg.

Another sweet move for the Masai and the Raps, who needed to bolster their C rotation with the loss of Poetl. To me they’re right there with Boston for best roster in the NBA outside of GS.

 

[slamminsammya]

One time Al Jefferson was a centerpiece to get KG. Does Al Jefferson cerca 2007 have any trade value in 2018?

 

[nighthob]

Pretty close to zero given Jefferson's defensive shortcomings.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Pretty close to zero given Jefferson's defensive shortcomings.

Yep. It's bad enough to be a center that hurts spacing, due to a lack of an outside shot. But if you also provide no rim protection or switchability, you're a hole on both ends.

 

[Sox Puppet]

In other words, you're Jahlil Okafor

 

[Jimbodandy]

In other words, you're Jahlil Okafor

Not exactly, but close. Monroe and Al at least have/had the ability to throw in some post points. That's not something to build a team around anymore, but it's better than nothing. And Monroe is a sneaky good passer.

 

[Big John]

Old Georgetown centers never die, they just fade away. Roy Hibbert retired a few months ago and no one noticed.

 

[the moops]

Sam Dekker to CLE for nothing but a trade exception. Good deal for CLE - sort of

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Not exactly, but close. Monroe and Al at least have/had the ability to throw in some post points. That's not something to build a team around anymore, but it's better than nothing. And Monroe is a sneaky good passer.

Okafor's offensive per36 numbers were in the same career range, actually slightly higher, as both Monroe and Jefferson. The one skill he does/did have was to score the ball.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Okafor's offensive per36 numbers were in the same career range, actually slightly higher, as both Monroe and Jefferson. The one skill he does/did have was to score the ball.

Fair point on the per36. Hard to see him that way with all of 1700 career points to his name but it's true.

 

[bowiac]

Not to rehash the Okafor wars, but his offensive metrics were even worse than his defensive ones.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Yeesh, you know it's bad when you're a 22 year-old #3 pick and people are tired of talking about you and speak about you in the past tense when they do.

Jahlil seems like a fairly good comp for Monroe, though Monroe has the two saving graces of (1) being a willing and able passer; and (2) being (I think) mature enough to understand his limitations in today's NBA, and willing to do his best to fit into a limited 0-15 mpg role.

 

[bowiac]

Agree on Monroe's passing being his saving grace. The three pillars of success as a modern big in the NBA are passing, spacing, and rim protection. The difference between Monroe and Okafor is Monroe contributes in at least one of those categories.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Per Shams, Melo's officially signing with the Rockets, so I guess I can officially predict them 3rd or 4th in the West. For entertainment purposes only...

1. GSW
2. OKC
3. UTA
4. HOU
5. NOP
6. DEN
7. LAL
8. POR

 

[LondonSox]

Not to rehash the Okafor wars, but his offensive metrics were even worse than his defensive ones.

It's almost like looking at points per 36 isn't very useful.

And re the west I don't fully understand why the Spurs who didn't have kwahi all last year and essentially added DeRozan are expected to be significantly worse than last year.
I'm not a huge fan at all, but he not utter trash

 

[lovegtm]

It's almost like looking at points per 36 isn't very useful.

And re the west I don't fully understand why the Spurs who didn't have kwahi all last year and essentially added DeRozan are expected to be significantly worse than last year.
I'm not a huge fan at all, but he not utter trash

I was also surprised at their early over/under...is the expectation that there will be fewer horrible teams for them to beat up on?

 

[LondonSox]

I was also surprised at their early over/under...is the expectation that there will be fewer horrible teams for them to beat up on?

i can only assume the assumption is the general level has improved but seems to really undervalue pop etc.

 

[bowiac]

The Spurs number is driven by the fact that the Spurs lost Kyle Anderson and Danny Green, which probably outweighs adding DeRozan on the face of it. Add in some generic age-related decline from Aldridge and Gasol, and you have a mid 40s win projection.

 

[ifmanis5]

The NBA will announce the Xmas games tomorrow, here is the likely lineup:
Marc Stein‏Verified account @TheSteinLine
A vintage dose of Celtics/Sixers, Giannis and the Bucks at MSG against the Knicks and (you guessed it) LeBron's Lakers in Oakland to face the Warriors are the highlights of the NBA's Christmas Day schedule that will be announced Wednesday afternoon, league sources tell @NYTSports

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Sometimes there's a point such that, even if you don't believe in evil cosmic forces, it may still make sense to wonder if they believe in you.

It’s the Phila Sixers. Of course evil cosmic forces, or maybe just karmic forces, are in play.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Note on SAC I just learned: last year they went 9-4 in games decided by three points or less or went to overtime and 7-0 in games decided by one point or in overtime. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/08/06/why-vegas-is-high-on-the-knicks-low-on-the-rockets-and-other-nba-over-under-best-bets/.

 

[tims4wins]

Note on SAC I just learned: last year they went 9-4 in games decided by three points or less or went to overtime and 7-0 in games decided by one point or in overtime. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/08/06/why-vegas-is-high-on-the-knicks-low-on-the-rockets-and-other-nba-over-under-best-bets/.

That bodes...well.

 

[ifmanis5]

Good spot for him...
Adrian Wojnarowski‏Verified account @wojespn 4m4 minutes ago
Free agent center Jahlil Okafor has agreed to a deal with New Orleans, league sources tell ESPN.

 

[RedOctober3829]

It's official. Sixers at Celtics 8 pm TNT opens the 2018 season followed by Thunder at Warriors at 10:30.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[cheech13]

It's almost like looking at points per 36 isn't very useful.

And re the west I don't fully understand why the Spurs who didn't have kwahi all last year and essentially added DeRozan are expected to be significantly worse than last year.
I'm not a huge fan at all, but he not utter trash

It's not necessarily an indictment of Derozan. First, the West's middle class is deeper and better than it was a year ago. In addition to last year's playoff teams you have LAL and Denver in the mix, plus a much improved Dallas, Memphis and LAC. That's just fewer wins to go around because more teams are going to be competing for a playoff spot, at least initially.

Second, it's somewhat erroneous to say that it's last year's Spurs teams plus Derozan. Kyle Anderson and Danny Green were second and fourth in minutes last year, respectively. Effectively you're replacing those minutes with Derozan and Bellinelli and when you factor in the defensive downgrade and lack of continuity I don't think it's crazy to expect a moderate regression.

 

[Royal Reader]

Why are all the other teams referred to by nicknames and the Cs as 'Boston?' Weird.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Those who are bored may find this article on a redditor named SEAinLA that apparently has been the first to report several NBA transactions, such as Kevin Love extension, the Embiid extension, the hiring of Budenholzer, and the Smart extension, even beating Wojnarowski. https://deadspin.com/meet-the-reddit-user-who-keeps-beating-powerful-nba-rep-1828172044

SEAinLA isn’t an agent or a media member and he doesn’t work for an NBA team. He’s just a basketball junkie with friends in high places, and agreed to talk under the condition of anonymity in order to keep his online life separated from his personal life, where he works as an attorney in California. “My work is in no way connected to the sports industry at all,” he explained. “I just go way back (multiple decades in some cases) with certain friends who ended up working and rising in various corners of the industry.”

SEAinLA, who is in his early 30s, said that he talks with his friends in the industry about sports on a daily basis and occasionally they share inside information with him. For instance, before the public knew that Kyrie Irving was going to be traded to Boston last summer, SEAinLA received a text about the impending trade a day-and-a-half before it was announced. ​

 

[Big John]

I'm always curious about how sports books fix their lines. I'm sure they've got any army of guys with computers in the back room projecting based on proprietary analytics. But isn't the goal to create a line with equal amounts bet on both sides, so that the book always makes money? Is the likely betting action figured in? Suppose the analytics produce a line that generates many more bets on one side than the other. Are the bettors so sophisticated that it will never happen?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Why are all the other teams referred to by nicknames and the Cs as 'Boston?' Weird.

"Boston" is gonna run out a garbage-time unit of Rozier, Betts, Gronkowski, Zdeno Chara, and Mark Wahlberg, to keep the Christmas crowd entertained.

 

[Royal Reader]

"Boston" is gonna run out a garbage-time unit of Rozier, Betts, Gronkowski, Zdeno Chara, and Mark Wahlberg, to keep the Christmas crowd entertained.

I hope they do More Than A Feeling for the encore.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Celtics will play Friday October 19th at Toronto on ESPN at 8 pm. So their first 2 games are home vs. Philly and at Toronto.

 

[JCizzle]

When is the full schedule dropping?

 

[djbayko]

I'm always curious about how sports books fix their lines. I'm sure they've got any army of guys with computers in the back room projecting based on proprietary analytics. But isn't the goal to create a line with equal amounts bet on bot sides, so that the book always makes money? Is the likely betting action figured in? Suppose the analytics produce a line that generates many more bets on one side than the other. Are the bettors so sophisticated that will never happen?

Yes, betting tendencies are factored into the line, so the line doesn't always represent what the lines makers believe the true win probability to be. Equal action on both sides is the goal. If you talk to people in the industry, they will tell you that they are sometimes willing to shade lines and take on more risk when they feel strongly that the public sentiment is on the wrong side, and I've read at least one study which indicates that this is likely true. But I think that's probably less common then they'd like you to believe, and some books are likely more willing to accept such risk than others. One extreme example of this being obviously true was the McGregor vs. Mayweather fight, where you could get Conor at -300 at some books on fight night.

This is based on my observation and what I've read, so I'm sure someone here who is more closely connected to Vegas will tell you I'm wrong

 

[Spelunker]

Yes, betting tendencies are factored into the line, so the line doesn't always represent what the lines makers believe the true win probability to be. Equal action on both sides is the goal. If you talk to people in the industry, they will tell you that they are sometimes willing to shade lines and take on more risk when they feel strongly that the public sentiment is on the wrong side, and I've read at least one study which indicates that this is likely true. But I think that's probably less common then they'd like you to believe, and some books are likely more willing to accept such risk than others. One extreme example of this being obviously true was the McGregor vs. Mayweather fight, where you could get Conor at -300 at some books on fight night.

This is based on my observation and what I've read, so I'm sure someone here who is more closely connected to Vegas will tell you I'm wrong

And, well, lines move.

 

[ifmanis5]

This seems like a pain in the ass...
Adrian Wojnarowski‏Verified account @wojespn 10m10 minutes ago
NCAA declares that USA Basketball will be burdened with choosing which elite high school players can hire agents -- a responsibility USA Basketball neither agreed upon or wants. Story on ESPN:

 

[LondonSox]

The Spurs number is driven by the fact that the Spurs lost Kyle Anderson and Danny Green, which probably outweighs adding DeRozan on the face of it. Add in some generic age-related decline from Aldridge and Gasol, and you have a mid 40s win projection.

I forgot Danny green went too (I forget for the raptors too!). Good point. I don't really get why they didn't match on Anderson

 

[Big John]

I believe that matching on Anderson would have put the Spurs over the luxury tax line. Then too, Memphis arguably overpaid for a guy who is jack of all trades but master of none and who is slow afoot. The offer sheet also reportedly contained a trade kicker that would have made Anderson difficult to move.

The Spurs may miss Green, but I doubt if they will miss Anderson very much. Poeltl replaces his rebounding and Belinelli will take his shots.

 

[DJnVa]

This seems like a pain in the ass...
Adrian Wojnarowski‏Verified account @wojespn 10m10 minutes ago
NCAA declares that USA Basketball will be burdened with choosing which elite high school players can hire agents -- a responsibility USA Basketball neither agreed upon or wants. Story on ESPN:

Are you telling me the NCAA fucked something up?

I'm sorry, I don't believe you.

 

[DJnVa]

 

[the moops]

haha. That is brilliant

 

[cheech13]

I believe that matching on Anderson would have put the Spurs over the luxury tax line. Then too, Memphis arguably overpaid for a guy who is jack of all trades but master of none and who is slow afoot. The offer sheet also reportedly contained a trade kicker that would have made Anderson difficult to move.

The Spurs may miss Green, but I doubt if they will miss Anderson very much. Poeltl replaces his rebounding and Belinelli will take his shots.

The numbers say Anderson is an elite defensive player, but the Spurs probably think that's as much about coaching and system as it is about Anderson the player. I was kind of shocked that they let him go for the MLE, but good teams don't overpay for role players and he's unlikely to be anything more than a role player long-term with his unique skill-set. I was similarly surprised they let Simmons walk last year and that already looks like a good decision.

 

[Big John]

Well, the numbers are what they are, but I don't think Anderson has the lateral mobility to guard quick forwards, and frankly I don't see him being a good fit in Memphis either.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Wardell Stephen Curry III shoots 71 (one over) at the EllieMae Classic, including 3 under on his his last 7 holes.

(Not sure if this belongs in the PGA, NBA offseason, or Warrior threads, or in V&N under "Steph officially calls out POTUS as racist, then crushes it at his favorite sport.")

 

[LondonSox]

Sometimes there's a point such that, even if you don't believe in evil cosmic forces, it may still make sense to wonder if they believe in you.

Uh-huh

 

[PedroKsBambino]

And, well, lines move.

This question comes up on the board somewhere every year or so. The consensus is (based on what is published) the initial line-setting is done purely via projection of the game results, and that the adjustment of the line after that is about evening out the money.

The reason for this is that if the initial line were not 'straight' (e.g. a projection of results) the sharps would bet huge early on it and the books wouldn't be able to manage the risk on the other side---keep in mind most games are not the Super Bowl in terms of volume.

Most things I've read and seen suggest also that books are wiling to 'take a side' and have uneven overall bets, though risk tolerance on that varies by book (as you'd expect). But that too is about the adjustment of the line only.

 

[Spelunker]

This question comes up on the board somewhere every year or so. The consensus is (based on what is published) the initial line-setting is done purely via projection of the game results, and that the adjustment of the line after that is about evening out the money.

The reason for this is that if the initial line were not 'straight' (e.g. a projection of results) the sharps would bet huge early on it and the books wouldn't be able to manage the risk on the other side---keep in mind most games are not the Super Bowl in terms of volume.

Most things I've read and seen suggest also that books are wiling to 'take a side' and have uneven overall bets, though risk tolerance on that varies by book (as you'd expect). But that too is about the adjustment of the line only.

Exactly - my post was basically in response to Big John's initial question: what do they do when the line is set and lots of money comes in on one side.

They move. The question sort of made it sound like once a line was set they stayed that way, and bookmakers were stuck with their initial projection. And we know that isn't the case.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yup. And here's the simple way to recognize that must be the case: if the linesmakers did anything other than start with their best guess at who would win, all they'd really be doing is betting on their own prediction of the public preference. And knowing the books, don't we know they don't like to actually take a risk they don't need to?

Far wise to start at the best assessment of 'middle' they can (their estimate of actual score) and then let the public push the line.

 

[Big John]

Many thanks for the responses on betting lines. What I take away is that if a line is out of whack, those who get their bets in early will be rewarded.

 

[lovegtm]

Wardell Stephen Curry III shoots 71 (one over) at the EllieMae Classic, including 3 under on his his last 7 holes.

(Not sure if this belongs in the PGA, NBA offseason, or Warrior threads, or in V&N under "Steph officially calls out POTUS as racist, then crushes it at his favorite sport.")

It kind of defeats the point of V&N to repeatedly use the construct "not sure if this belong in V&N but [X statement that pretty obviously belongs in V&N]."