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2018 NBA offseason thread

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by DrewDawg, May 30, 2018.

  1. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Well, since everyone here says they're not watching the finals, here's a thread to discuss trade and FA rumors and news.

    I'll start:

    Chris Paul has already started recruiting Lebron:

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles...star-being-recruited-to-rockets-by-chris-paul

     
  2. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    I am probably missing something, but how would Houston have the cap room to sign LeBron and still be a top team in the West? According to Spotrac they have a maximum of around $21 million even if they renounce their cap holds, which isn't even close to the max, and that doesn't even factor in having to re-sign Chris Paul.

    At an absolute minimum you obviously have to move Ryan Anderson, which could be pretty costly especially since teams will know the Rockets are desperate to move him. But even that is not enough so they would likely have to move Eric Gordon as well. And since they would also need to essentially renounce all their free agents (Ariza and Capela, most notably), even if they could get LeBron they'd be left with an absolute shell of a team with no bench to speak of.

    I don't really see how that would make the Rockets any better than just basically rolling back the team they had this year.
     
  3. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    Just like the Heat and the Cavs when LeBron joined those squads; I’m sure they are not worried about acquiring role players once they have the team of stars in place. They will rely on buyout guys and veterans willing to take a pay cut for a shot at the ring.
     
  4. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    12,011
    You get LeBron to opt-in, and then trade Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon for him (along with picks to make it worth the Cavs' while). You then re-sign Ariza and Capela.
     
  5. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    And you get a team of Paul, Harden, Tucker, Lebron, Ariza, and Capela with a collection of minimum guys and one mini mid level guy. That's a good team.
     
  6. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Houston doesn't have picks to make that worthwhile.

    They have no extra picks, and their own wouldn't be worth much with Harden/Lebron/Paul on the team.

    I'd rather let Lebron walk than pay Anderson/Gordon almost 70M combined over the next two years on a non-contender.
     
  7. PedroKsBambino

    PedroKsBambino Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If you were Cleveland wouldn't you just take Houston's number one out, say, 4 years? That's a reasonable shot to be a useful pick. Gordon could certainly be flipped for assets. Anderson is a sunk cost.

    I agree it's not certain Cleveland would do it, but if you're them and your choice is nothing or eating Anderson and getting two assets, I think you'd take the latter---Anderson helps you hit salary floor at least.
     
  8. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    If he wants to win, isn’t Boston the place? There are a number of ways to make it happen via sign and trade. Boston ships the Memphis or Sac pick with Kyrie or Horford. Lineup of LeBron/Horford/Tatum/Hayward/Brown. Or switch out Horford for Kyrie. Beat that anywhere else.
     
    #8 Ed Hillel, May 30, 2018
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
  9. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    If you are Cleveland you ask for a Nets deal package. If you are Houston, you answer yes.
     
  10. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I'd say no.

    And Cleveland doesn't have to worry about hitting the salary floor, which has no penalty anyway you just pay your current players. Even if Lebron walks for nothing Cleveland will be over the cap with their garbage contracts. Don't need to add another one.
     
  11. PedroKsBambino

    PedroKsBambino Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    My guess (and it is only that, of course) is they work hard to dump salary if Lebron leaves---they've been writing big checks and can't imagine they want to do so in order to not compete. Love and Korver are easy to move, but you're right that Hill, Smith (almost surely immovable), Thompson (maybe someone will take him, but he's hugely overpaid), Clarkson likely aren't going anywhere....which gets them to the floor even before picks and filling out the roster. I also don't think teams care about the floor, but it is something Ryan Anderson helps you achieve and that's a pretty short list!
     
  12. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I’ve always wondered why he’s never shown much interest in joining the Celtics. From a pure basketball standpoint, he can’t do any better and would basically be guaranteed 3-4 additional shots at a title. He also seemingly likes Tatum and he loves Stevens.

    So, what’s the deal, LeBron? Why aren’t we pretty enough for you?
     
  13. Scoops Bolling

    Scoops Bolling Member SoSH Member

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    What amount of picks is worth that though? Anderson's got another $41 million coming to him and is functionally useless at this point, and Gordon's got $27 million and while he has some value, as someone who lived in New Orleans and watched him, he's still an injury prone bench player. Maybe you can deal Gordon for a pick without taking back salary, but unloading Anderson would take a couple of 1sts, and even then I'm not sure anyone would be interested. So unless the Rockets are going to give up something like three 1sts and a couple 1st round swaps, I'm not sure why the Cavs would even consider this when letting LeBron walk might be comparatively better for the franchise. I just don't see how the Rockets can possibly make a trade work with the assets they have.
     
  14. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Of course Houston says yes, they get Lebron.

    And Cleveland would get an awful pick for sure in 2019, likely another bad one in 2021, then hope you're better than them in 2022 for a swap and/or Houston stinks in 2023, by which point Koby Altman is very likely long gone from Cleveland?

    The Nets deal package doesn't exist because Houston wouldn't be acquiring 37 year old KG and 35 year old Paul Pierce to add to Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. They'd add robot Lebron who is apparently ageless to 29 year old James Harden. The Nets swindle is so unlikely to happen again. I'd bet that Cleveland ends up with three non-lottery picks for the pleasure of paying Ryan Anderson 41 million bucks.

    No thanks.
     
  15. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    Kyrie.
     
  16. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    So ship him back to Cleveland as part of the deal. Needs to be either him or Horford.
     
  17. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Ryan Anderson and either Eric Gordon or after July 1st with Anderson and a re-signed Clint Capela.
     
  18. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I read, or heard on SIRIUS/XM NBA Radio that Lebron has designs of going somewhere that has an actual PG so he doesn't have to worry about ball handling as much as he has this year.
     
  19. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    He may say that but LeBrons going to have the ball in his hands as much as possible.
     
  20. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I read that as well.
    I think he understands he's only got so much of this left in him and (probably correctly) has an idea that moving to a less ball dominant role will give him more years.
    He might have a year or two of this left or five plus of a less taxing role.
     
  21. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    Lebron is signing with my Nuggets:

    1. They're biggest (only) weakness is at the wing/3.
    2. He'd still be the unchallenged alpha dog, but with a better supporting cast.
    3. The young players will get better as he ages, helping him ease into his latter years.
    4. They will compete immediately and in the coming years: A starting 5 of Murray, Harris, Lebron, Milsap, and Jokic.
    5. Who doesn't want to play with Jokic?
    6. He's good friends with Josh Kroenke, having vacationed with him on his yacht a few years ago.

    Okay, I don't really believe Lebron will be a Nugget, but it's fun to think about and it would be a great fit for him and the team.
     
  22. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Obviously, the odds of getting the actual set of picks the nets ended up having traded is really unlikely. And, the package doesn't necessarily look exactly the same, for example, maybe it extends further and doesn't involve swap rights, but the basic idea of trading a set of unprotected firsts that stretches far out into the future holds. If you are Cleveland, I don't think you can say no to those long term lottery tickets when they just cost money. That's especially true because with LeBron gone and their current cap mess, their next step is to tear everything down, live through a few years of clearing the salaries that have no trade value, and start rebuilding. A core of Love, Hill, and Thompson isn't getting them to the playoffs. They are stuck with no real salary flexibility for the next couple years whether or not they add Anderson to the mix.
     
  23. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    They'd have to trade off a lot of salary to make it work as they are capped out.
     
  24. Sox and Rocks

    Sox and Rocks Member SoSH Member

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    Faried and Chandler are on expiring deals at $12-14 million (too lazy to look up exact numbers). Arthur is expiring at around $7. They can package Plumlee with a pick and dump if needed.

    They won't get Lebron, but it won't be because of the cap.
     
  25. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    How does Lebron feel about having a GM that attacks him anonymously on twitter via burner accounts?
     
  26. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The future past the next couple years for Houston would have so much variance that they be idiots to turn down 3 unprotected first round picks. Even the chance that the 2023 pick would be high is way more than most teams get when a player walks, and is easily worth paying Ryan Anderson for.

    Remember, after the Nets trade some people were mad about paying Gerald Wallace.
     
  27. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    I randomly landed on the Nuggets the other day as I was mentally scanning the best pure basketball fits with LeBron. Harris and Murray — deadly sharpshooters with secondary ballhandling skills — seem like much better complements to him than ball-dominant bricklayers like Simmons and Fultz (assuming Philly is or was actually as high on his list as the pundits say). That lineup you posted would be ridiculously good and ridiculously fun to watch. Imagine the passing on a team with LeBron and Jokic?

    Vaguely on topic: what's the read in Nuggets Nation on Will Barton? He's my #1 MLE binky for the Warriors this offseason, even ahead of Tyreke: 6'-6" wing who does everything well (and has always killed the Warriors). Also seems like a great target for the Celtics — basically, I think the Ws and Cs will be sniffing around all the same players, in free agency and the draft. Do you get the sense he's staying in Denver or moving on?
     
    #27 Sam Ray Not, May 31, 2018
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  28. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    In terms of pure basketball fit, the Celtics are the best fit for LeBron.

    --Strong front office who will make the right moves to build a winning team
    --Brad Stevens is a coach that LBJ has a ton of respect for. You think he'd rather play for Brett Brown or Mike D'Antoni if he had the choice?
    --His philosophy of making the right basketball play is in line with how Brad Stevens likes to play.
    --They have a defensive system that is much better than anyone else's. He won't have to guard the best player on the other team.
    --He'll have 2 of Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford to join forces with.
    --Jayson Tatum is the best young player he'd have a chance to play with.
    --As a fan of basketball history, winning titles in Boston should appeal to him. LA has that advantage too, but Boston is much closer to winning than them.
    --The Celtics with him are the most likely team to knock off the Warriors than any other team in the NBA.
     
    #28 RedOctober3829, May 31, 2018
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  29. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    He's slot in pretty well in the Iguodala role on the Warriors, too. :)
     
  30. MainerInExile

    MainerInExile Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The Celtics, with him, would be favored over GSW. But so would the Rockets with him.
     
  31. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    The thing about LeBron's history is that he hasn't gone to teams that were already very good and made them title contenders. He has actually gone to mediocre teams, but during the same off-season he signs with them, re-shapes the makeup of the team to turn them into a title contender (in addition to himself joining the team). He hasn't just latched on to an already great team; like he would by going to Houston in Boston. Given his history, it is more important for a team to have a lot of cap room + young assets that can be traded for top players than it is for them to actually have good players on the roster and a solid foundation.
     
  32. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    When he left Cleveland, he went to an organization that had a solid foundation with Pat Riley and a star in D-Wade. They went and added Bosh, kept a few players from the previous team, and added veteran depth. At this point in his career, it would be advantageous to re-think his strategy. Even though he's looked superhuman this postseason, he'd welcome not carrying the entire team going forward. Boston's situation is as good as it gets in terms of having the mix of top end and young talent, a good organizational structure, assets to make changes, and a coach who can get everyone on the same page. Houston is a good situation as well, but he'd have a tougher road just to get to the WC Finals to face Golden State than if he was in the East.
     
  33. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    I like his fit on the Celtics much better than on the Rockets, tbh. Harden + CP3 + LeBron feels like an awkward, ball-pounding-palooza on offense; and on the other end of the floor, some combo of Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Smart could cover the 34 y.o. King's defensive deficiencies much better than Harden could. With LeBron and Harden as your primary wings, you risk getting pretty badly lit up on the perimeter.

    Depending somewhat on the rest of the rosters shook out, I'd think the Warriors could wreck the CP3-Harden-LeBron Rockets, but have much tougher time v. LeBron on these Celtics.

    Heck, I think next year's Celtics as currently composed (assuming Smart sticks around) could give the Warriors significantly more problems than a team built around 34 y.o. LeBron, 34 y.o. Paul, and the Beard.
     
  34. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    We can keep talking about this, but there's obviously a very good reason (from his POV) that we've never heard Boston mentioned.

    Maybe we can get him in a trade along with Larry Fitzgerald.
     
  35. pjheff

    pjheff Member SoSH Member

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    It's money. The rumor is that LBJ will no longer sign for less than a max salary after his Miami experience.
     
  36. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Is there anyway for Cleveland to clear money to sign Chris Paul? After all, Cleveland can offer Lebron a quarter billion.
     
  37. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, they could trade Hill, Smith, and Clarkson to a team (like Chicago) with a ton of empty cap space. They would have to send like a dozen first round draft picks to make it work, though.
     
  38. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Could send Love somewhere pretty easily. Thompson could be moved too, although not as easily as Love
     
  39. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    If the goal is contending w/Paul, I don't see what moving Love or Thompson gets them.
     
  40. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    I would not be shocked to see Lebron go to Golden State in a trade for Klay.

    Edited for clarity.
     
    #40 Lazy vs Crazy, Jun 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  41. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Who? Lebron? Chris Paul? Love?

    And if it is any of those three, it would be shocking
     
  42. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Much funnier would be Durant opting in followed by the Warriors dealing him to Cleveland for LBJ.
     
  43. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I know where Vegas thinks he’s going.

     
  44. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, they clearly think he’s going to Philly if they’re favoring the Sixers over the Celts after the epic beat down the short handed Celtics put on Philly.
     
  45. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    He seems somehow factored into Cleveland, Lakers and Heat (20-1).....but mostly Philly. I suppose other FAs/Leonard are part of that mix.

    Ed: I mean, without LeBron (or some other star) the Cavs Lakers and Heat are more like 100-1.
     
  46. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    30-1 for Cleveland feels like a hedge. If Lebron goes back, 30-1 is the steal of the century. If he doesn't, rip the ticket up in July.
     
  47. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    8:1 payout for Celtics is juicy
     
  48. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I think it is way more factored into the Laker # than Philadelphia. Lakers have zero shot at a championship without LeBron. Zero. PHI could still have a decent chance with a Paul George signing or a Kawhi trade.
     
  49. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    Boston can pay him as much as anyone after a sign and trade.
     
  50. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The Celtics picked up a useful player (Zeller) and a future first round pick (used in the IT deal and eventually became Skal Labissiere) for absorbing a $10 million cap hit in order to help Cleveland squeeze Lebron in under the cap. I don't think Cleveland really deserves anything "for Lebron" in this kind of scenario, but they ought to be adequately compensated for taking on salary and flushing their next couple of seasons down the metaphorical toilet.
    I don't see the Celtics as having available minutes for any of these guys, assuming players are back healthy. I don't think moving from Smart to Evans or Barton would necessarily be an upgrade, as next year's Celtics won't be short of guys who can score.
    I think the issue is less about whether the Celtics are a fit for Lebron, and more about whether Lebron is a fit for the Celtics. There's no place in Boston for GM Lebron or coach Lebron, and bringing him in (even if the Celtics were assured that coach-GM Lebron were staying behind) would mightily fuck up their salary cap situation (no to mention costing them some of their elite young talent).

    I'd probably do it anyway, whatever the cost, if I was 100% certain that coach-GM Lebron was not coming, but I don't think that kind of certainty exists.
     

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