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Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by SemperFidelisSox, Nov 1, 2018.
I don’t know. Reds might be interesting.
They will help for a year, but yeah by my math they took on 8-10 million in total for 3 players who walk in a year and gave up
2 good prospects.
They can of course flip all of these in July, which might make it a net positive in the long run.
sure seemed like the Reds wanted to get rid of Homer.
I kinda feel bad for Kemp. resurgent for a bit with the Dodgers the second time around, but now jettisoned to Reds in a bad contract swap.
Dodgers (correctly) determining that Puig / Wood are not that good. I'm curious to follow Puig's career now that he's out of the limelight of LA.
Rosenthal suggests that Reds were probably going to release Bailey anyway. So for a few extra million, they get a couple pieces that can be flipped mid-season and didn't give up any of their best prospects.
Puig and Kemp could have huge years in GAB.
If the Reds added one more good starting pitcher (which I guess would be Keuchel or a trade), I think they could be in the Wild Card conversation.
Who plays centerfield next year?
I don't hate this for the Reds. All three of those guys will probably be average-ish at positions where the Reds were horrible last year, which can go a long way for a team that's reaching the 'turnaround' phase in its rebuild. The problem, though, is that it's not like they can reasonably expect the Brewers, Cubs, or Cardinals to be bad, and even Pittsburgh won't be terrible.
Or both, what about Keuchel and Sonny Gray?
Even if they do add Keuchel, they’re still the worst team in that division and probably 10th best in the NL. Seems a ridiculous bet to be gunning for a Wild Card when there are four powerhouses in the NL East.
the guy who claimed Bryce to Dodgers was a sure thing is claiming now that Kluber to Dodgers is the next move, then Bryce. FWIW.
Chris Camello @Chris_Camello 57m57 minutes ago
According to my source, #Dodgers next move will be to get Corey Kluber from #Indians with a POSSIBLE “Verdugo package.” Then they will shift focus to Bryce
Think he’ll improve on his “not that good” career 127 OPS+?
That was my thought as well. Puig and Wood are very valuable to a stretch run. And they’re also talking to Clevand about Kluber still. Cleveland was rumored to have interest in Puig earlier in offseason, weren’t they?
Why wouldn't the Dodgers make that trade themselves in that case? I suspect this is tacit confirmation that Kluber's staying put (watch him get traded to, like, Milwaukee or something now).
Fangraphs likes it for CIN short-term:
“As for the Reds, they just got a three-win upgrade in the outfield, to go with a one or two win upgrade in the rotation, while only adding about $7 million in payroll and not giving up any of their top prospects. It sounds crazy to say, but right now, the Reds are pretty close to the Phillies and Brewers on paper. The team is in a really tough division, and face a competitive NL Wild Card field as well, but they aren’t that far away from having a chance at a playoff spot. The team still needs more starting pitching, but the Reds aren’t as far away as last season’s 95 losses make them seem.”
Milwaukee trades Santana to Seattle for a 4th outfielder and a relief pitching prospect.
Talk about selling at the Nadir of value. Great trade for the Mariners. What the hell is Milwaukee thinking.
Robbie Scott designated for assignment.
Coming off a 97 win season and needing to sell the Oakland area population and politicians on their new stadium plan at Howard Terminal.
Anyone follow the Dodgers really closely? I know it's not Friedman's style, but it seems like this deal allows them to really go for it if they want, trade for Kluber and/or Realmuto and sign Harper. Not sure if they have the minor league talent to make both those deals, but the prospects they got today help.
In the past few years, the Dodgers have traded significant pieces for Yu Darvish, Josh Reddick, Rich Hill, Logan Forsythe, and Manny Machado, they've also graduated Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager from their system, and perhaps a few other guys I'm not aware of. Do they have a bottomless farm system?
It seems like it doesn’t it?
They can convert Verdugo+ into one of Kluber/Realmuto. Not sure beyond that. If they are smart they’d sell high on Muncy.
I think like the Yankees in recent years they have poured a ton of money into scouting on every level, and it's why they keep coming up with guys like Muncy and Chris Taylor, blossoming out of nowhere into big contributors when they were never top prospects even. Every one of those you get pushes everyone else down a notch, so that helps build the system too.
Also I don't remember them ever giving up that much in any of those deals, quantity usually more than quality. Willie Calhoun was highly rated but always had bust potential, scouts have always been mixed on him, he is 5'8" and he is no Mookie.
While we discuss their bottomless farm system, let’s also remember that a bunch of people in the Dodgers’ FO may be indicted for FCPA violations.
They clearly think that 2017 season is an outlier. I could see the argument for it. I think they get an extra year of control out of Hamel as well and probably at a cheaper rate.
While looking at Santana's salaries on BBRef, I noticed this little tidbit.
July 30, 2015: Traded by the Houston Astros with Josh Hader, Adrian Houser and Brett Phillips to the Milwaukee Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez and cash.
Can you imagine the Astros having Hader right now? Hoo-boy!
So, were Dodgers staff bribing government officials? I had to look up FCPA to see what that is and it's a law against bribing foreign gov't officials. Did they get the inside track to some players that way?
I'm sure as hell glad they didn't have him in the ALCS, especially when Jackie Bradley Jr. was up in all those big spots.
Hader was an Orioles draft pick originally, moved in 2013 for Bud Norris.
The allegation is that they were, yeah.
Mike Fiers and The A's agree to a two year deal worth $14-$15 million.
Indians apparently in serious talks to trade Kluber, especially with Padres, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers according to MLB network.
Joel Sherman is not treating the Indians well for this.
Dunno his exact criticism but CLE is almost certainly going to win the division with or without Kluber, so it's at least worth exploring getting some young position players in return, especially outfielders and a catcher. It's also worth at least noting that Kluber has been absolutely shelled in the last two postseasons, a 10.64 ERA in three starts. Not saying that's predictive, but if you're going to win the division anyway...
I think his perspective was that it's really hard for a small market club to build up to be this close to winning it all. So, once you get there (to a position of definitely contending) how can you choose to move back or sideways at best without it being financially required?
Re the postseason, he was excellent in 2016 so it's not as though he's always failed in the postseason.
I think what you really can't afford as a small market club is to let your best assets walk with no return, and since CLE would still be close to locks to win the division without Kluber, and they still would have Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger for a postseason rotation, it might make sense to move Kluber for a package including Verdugo (long-term OF replacement), one of their stud C prospects and Julio Urias (who could be the 4th man in CLE's postseason rotation).
That kind of deal might make sense both ways, the Dodgers have so much depth and could use more consolidation deals for stars. And if Kluber has another top 10 AL SP season and then gets shelled in the playoffs for the third straight season, he will be a lot less valuable next winter, one year less of control and a third straight bad postseason.
It's partly dependent upon how you value completely different things and often opposed interests, the need to keep a continuing base of talent in the future and the need to win NOW.
In support of the idea of trading him, Bauer was probably even better than him last year.
There's also a possible element in the trade of any pitcher of the team trading him knowing something about the wear and tear on him. For all the shit the Mets rightly got for trading Tom Seaver in 1977, for example, they pretty much did hit the end of the time when he was TOM SEAVER. Other teams have done it, too. The Phillies traded Jim Bunning right as he fell off. Anyways, you always have to wonder if the team trading a top pitcher knows something about his condition and whether he can still be THAT guy any more. Maybe that's not part of this at all but it could be for all anyone on the outside knows. He could fall off a little and go to the NL and look just as good or better with the weaker lineups.
Love that deal for CLE if it could be had.
small market teams will have smaller windows.
they arguably would have won it all in 2016 if their rotation wasn't in shambles come playoff time (particularly Carrasco... Bauer was not that good / "droned up" at the time). Terry took that team as far as it could go, and it was really close. Kipnis was still good at this time, Lindor was just beginning.
2017 they were a truly elite team... and chose the wrong time to lose all their offense, in a short series with the Yanks. Lindor asserts himself as top 3 SS in the game, Ramirez comes on the scene, but Kipnis falls off and none of their young OF pan out.
2018... bottom falls out on the bullpen. Miller has an injured year, Greg Allen becomes a true tire fire. Kluber is still great, but a year older and seems more worn down towards the end. Lindor still great, Ramirez a MVP candidate. They are clearly only a good team, and the Astros destroy them in 3 games. Kipnis is now an albatross, and they still have nobody in the OF. Now they're going to try Jake Bauers out there.
KC ended up having basically a two-year window too, which they maximized into being 1-1 in the WS. Unfortunately losing a 2-0 ALDS lead to the Yanks in 2017 might have been their last chance with their core. They are right to look to retool right now and see if they can make another run while Lindor & JRam are still cheap.
I could probably get behind a Verdugo, Urias, catching prospect package from the Dodgers, but the group the Padres are rumored to be pushing is a flaming pile of garbage. Renfroe, Margot and Hedges should be met with a few choice words from Chris Antonetti and a hangup. If they're going to give up a 2-time Cy Young winner it can't just be to fill a few spots with warm bodies, they need to get a potential star in return. Renfroe's power comes at the expense of everything else, and Cleveland already has good defensive catchers and center fielders who can't hit.
I'm still not sure what Cleveland's approach really is this winter. They've cleared over $20M in 2019 payroll, so they should no longer need to deal Kluber or Bauer to save payroll. However, the problem seems to be that there aren't many interesting mid-tier free agents at their positions of need. Trading Yan Gomes looked like a bad salary dump, but then trading Encarnacion and Diaz for Santana and Bauers looked to improve the team both on the field and financially. Trading Kluber to the Padres without getting either of their top two prospects would leave no doubt that the only goal is to maximize Dolan's profit margin.
Maybe Kluber's knee is going to be a chronic issue, but honestly I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned this winter. He went from being a top candidate for the Cy Young during the first two months to being an innings-eating mid-rotation starter after it put him on the DL in late June, mixing a few excellent performances in with a few of the worst starts of his career. Now we're left to assume the knee isn't a problem going forward, and if it was, I'd think the teams wanting to acquire him would have an inkling of that.
I don't recall Kluber's exact problem in October 2017, but it was mechanical. It doesn't show up in the box score, but if I remember, it surfaced during his last start of the regular season and was a topic of discussion heading into the ALDS.
Cruz goes to Twins. 14M this year, 12M club option next year with 300k buyout.
Wow. I wonder what their offer was for a clean one year deal that giving them the option to cut his pay if he has another good season was the better deal?
I know he’s pushing 40 but that seems like even more evidence that the market for above average starting players is experiencing a severe correction this season. Seems like they are getting and accepting smaller deals following on the correction for average players last season, which saw several go unsigned until a take it or leave it market developed in March, and others like Brandon Phillips relegated to minor leaguers.
Baseball’s owners are really exploiting profit boost provided by the lack of a minimum payroll or other incentive to be competitive in the last deal.
I wasn't sure the Twins should really be buyers, but if I squint enough, I can see where with a healthy dose of optimism they might think they can compete in the AL Central after plugging holes with CJ Cron and Jonathan Schoop. Really though, the Cruz deal makes sense either way, because the 2020 buyout is so insignificant. Even if they're on their way to a 90-loss season, that contract should make Cruz attractive at the trade deadline as long as his career doesn't nosedive.
Again, the issue isn't that exactly, it's that signing OK veterans hurts roster flexibility, one less spot you can option someone down if they're not performing. The money helps too, but the roster flexibility is a big issue that is hurting the veterans it's designed to protect.
I can see that incentive at play and it is enhanced by the lack of a penalty for being uncompetitive. If there were a penalty for losing more than 95 games, say, then the cost - benefit of that roster flexibility changes. The stability provided by a veteran innings eater or strong DH is worth more.
I have been turning around the idea in my head of giving an extra $xxx in international bonus money and draft money to teams that finish .500 or better but don’t make the playoffs or exceed the luxury tax, and deducting a similar amount of international money (but not draft money) from teams that lose 95+ games. That would make it easier to “take the next step” if you’re close to contention (you can trade the bonus money and draft picks for help now if you want), thus providing an incentive for teams like the Mariners not to dismantle themselves, and harder to rebuild by totally tanking, so that losing all the time is rewarded less. Maybe the calibration of the $xxx above is something like the difference between the slot money for the 3rd pick and the 10th pick or something like that.
I think the problem is you're equating 'spending money' with being competitive and I'm not sure they're so connected anymore (again, the quotes in my sig are relevant as always). Personally I'd say if anything too many teams are going for it as opposed to a full rebuild, but what there's no question about is that the current CBA is awful awful awful for players. They need to be paid a lot more earlier in their careers (if they are very productive) because you can't force teams to overpay solid players after they hit free agency when so many of them end up not performing up to the level of their contracts.
Really? Looking through the current list of free agents and taking the Cruz and Ramos contracts as baseline for solid veteran position players, I bet I could easily put together a team for less than $125 million that would finish .500. I guarantee it wouldn’t lose 100 games.
I also don’t see how you’re going to pay players a lot more early in their careers unless you Uber-Ize the first two years with a bunch of large, automatic bonuses in the rookie and second year contracts. Say $1 million for ROY and $750k for ROY runner up, and $500k for an all star selection or something like that.
Those two guys coat $24M just by themselves, so you have $101M left for 23 players and zero roster flexibility. Good luck with your pitching staff.
There are many ways younger players could get paid more, but few that would be acceptable to ownership and veteran players. You could decrease years of control (either reduce them or age cap it), make arbitration apply earlier (either years earlier or fiddle with Super 2 rules), reduce options, etc. All of these, however, would result in increased payouts from owners, so would need something to be traded back for them, and it's unlikely for the veteran players to be willing to do that.
I tried it.
I think it would cost somewhat more than $125 million AAV; my budget here is 150. Assuming 30 WAR is .500, and fudging/optimistically-adjusting WAR values and costs for projected usage and market, here's a roster that if you squint you could imagine reaching .500 if a few players have bounce-back seasons, but that is more likely to land in the mid 70s in terms of wins:
Rotation | $56m AAV, 7 projected WAR
1 Dallas Keuchel 3/$54 – 18 AAV | 3 projected WAR
2 Wade Miley 2/$28 – 14 AAV | 1.5 projected WAR
3 Edwin Jackson 1/$14 – 14 AAV | 1 projected WAR
4 Jason Hammel 2/$12 – 6 AAV | 1 projected WAR
5 Adam Warren 1/$4 – 4 AAV | .5 projected WAR
Bullpen | $23m AAV, 4.5 pWAR
CL Cody Allen 2/$12 – 6 AAV | 1 pWAR
SU Ryan Madson 2/$8 – 4 AAV | 1pWAR
SU Brad Boxberger 1/$4 – 4 AAV | .5 pWAR
MR Justin Wilson 1/$3 – 3 AAV | .5 pWAR
MR Alex Wilson 1/$3 – 3 AAV | .5 pWAR
MR Hunter Strickland 1/$1 – 1 AAV | 0 pWAR
SW Drew Pomeranz 1/$2 – 2 AAV | 1 pWAR
Lineup | $60m AAV, 14 pWAR
C Martin Maldonado 2/$16 – 8 AAV | 2 pWAR
1B Logan Morrison 1/$7 – 7 AAV | 1.5 pWAR
2B Jed Lowrie 1/$14 – 14 AAV | 3 pWAR
3B Yangervis Solarte 2/$6 – 3 AAV | 1 pWAR
SS Jose Iglesias 2/$8 – 4 AAV | 2 pWAR
OF Avisail Garcia 2/$12 – 6 AAV | 1.5 pWAR
OF Carlos Gonzalez 2/$14 – 7 AAV | 1.5 pWAR
OF Carlos Gomez 1/$4 – 4 AAV | .5 pWAR
DH Lucas Duda 1/$7 – 7 AAV | 1 pWAR
Bench | $11 AAV, 3.5 pWAR
C Matt Wieters 2/$4 – 2 AAV | 1 pWAR
IF Brandon Phillips 1/$1 – 1 AAV | 0 pWAR
OF Cameron Maybin 1/$2 – 2 AAV | .5 pWAR
UT Josh Harrison 3/$18 – 6 AAV | 2 pWAR
Roster Totals: $150 AAV, 28 pWAR
(The lineup: CarGo L; Garcia R; Duda L; Lowrie S; Morrison L; Gomez R; Solarte S; Maldonado R; Iglesias R; with like 600 PA of Josh Harrison sprinkled in, and more innings of Brandon Phillips and Yangervis Solarte at SS than anyone is happy about.)
Not to derail, but holy shit, Edwin Jackson is still in the league?
Edit: and seemingly headed to his 14th team. Wow.