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Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by SemperFidelisSox, Nov 1, 2018.
The Dodgers have extended Clayton Kershaw’s opt out deadline to Friday at 4pm.
That's interesting. It's probably reading too much into it, but it kinda sounds like they are looking for more time to convince him to stay.
Or working out extension details. That’s my prediction.
As I understand it they mutually agreed to extend the deadline. That means to me that they recognize that they're making good progress on a deal, but recognize that it might take an extra 24 hours to hammer out the other important details.
One of the things I find very interesting about guys' pages at baseball-reference. com are the salaries. Look up most any player who was good for several or even just a few years in the 1950's or 1960's, for example. You see a whole lot of guys who get paid BIG money for the time, on short term deals well after it's clear they've lost it. Players used to get paid, sort of irrationally, for what they'd done not what they were going to do.
Is that Kershaw now? His fastball dropped a couple mph this past year to probably below average. He still had a good year though with some DL time off. Would you want to put $30 million per year out there on a bet that he won't continue to get hurt and won't lose any more velocity?
Aren't there a lot of parallels to the Cardinals and Albert Pujols situation where the Cards could see that Alberts OPS had gone down something like 4 straight years and now he was a certain age annnnnnd they had to at least look like they were seriously trying to keep him. But did they really want to re-sign him?
Yeah, this is why I don't think he hits the market, he is worth more to LA than he is to anyone else and vice-versa. Since they are already on the hook for 2/70, an extension to 4/110 or 4/120 probably makes sense both ways, Kershaw's number comes down a bit and he gets two more years.
the Cubs have decided to keep Hamels for another year with his club option, and dumped Drew Smyly to the Rangers to make room.
Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.
Sources: The Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw are nearing a deal that would keep him in Los Angeles. One source said it's "very close." The expectation was that he would stay, and as the 4 p.m. ET deadline nears, it's looking like a reality.
D-backs intend to extend the qualifying offer to aj pollock as well as Patrick Corbin
Kershaw and Dodgers reach new deal. 3/$93 million. No opt outs.
I know his velocity is down but I’m genuinely shocked it’s only an additional year. That’s really weird.
He's had a lot of back problems too and missed time each of the last three seasons, averaging around 160 innings.
$4m per year in GS incentives. $1m at 24, 26, 28, and 30. $1.5m to win the Cy Young, $500k for second or third. Probably could have gotten more years elsewhere, more AAV in Los Angeles. Good deal for both sides, clearly wanted to remain a Dodger.
I’m glad he stuck with them.
I like career players like that. Will make him be remembered for generations.
The diminished velo is a red flag to me. Kershaw doesn't look like the same guy. Maybe the cheese comes back, maybe it doesn't. $93 Million is a lot to risk. I'm curious to know what kind of money other clubs would have put up had he opted out. While he's still young, he has thrown 2250 IP regular season and post combined.
Even with a 90MPH fastball, his ERA was below 3 and his FIP was still very good. Clearly even with diminished stuff, he’s an ace. I think it’s a really safe contract for the Dodgers given that he’s showed that he can still be an ace with diminished stuff.
But the Dodgers aren’t risking that. The last two years and $65 MM on the original deal are replaced, so the additional investment in him is $28 MM. From the sounds of this, he wasn’t going anywhere and I can’t say that I blame him. Seems like a win-win.
I mean, if he wasn't going anywhere, then he had no leverage, and they could have just kept him for the 2 years on his original contract and resigned him for whatever's he's worth then. Which will most likely be less than 28 mil per year. But I've always loved watching him, so hopefully his body holds up and he regains his dominance. But I fear we're looking at mid-2000s Pedro.
No leverage except for that whole opt-out thing that prompted the re-negotiation in the first place. His leverage was that he could walk away and sign somewhere else.
The 7 free agents who received qualifying offers:
Dallas Keuchel, L
Patrick Corbin, LHP Ari
AJ Pollock, CF, Ari
Yasmani Grandal, C, LAN
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, LAN
Bryce Harper, RF, Was
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Bos
Does any of this change the FA landscape? If you go with 1 WAR = $8 million, all these guys were worth the $17.9M qualifying offer this past season except for Harper, but he expects to sign somewhere for the next decade, so obviously he's not accepting it. Kimbrel's value was right at the QO, but as the top closer on the market, he can probably expect to get something around that amount for at least 3 years. Ryu needed an unsustainably good half season to reach that value. With his long injury history, I'd think he has the worst free agency outlook of this group. However, if he feels a multi-year deal is a safe bet, he should probably go that route, even if it's a bit less annually. If he would take the QO, but then fail to pitch 150 innings for a 5th year in a row, he'd be unlikely to ever approach $18M/yr again.
walk away to where? Who's paying him anything close to 34 mil?
Unless he expects to retire at 33, it’s total package, not aav, that he’d most likely be concerned about. I’m pretty sure he could have gotten more than $93M. To your direct question I’m also pretty sure the Yankees would have given him close to that. But, as fallback, there’s always one dumb team or GM trying to save his job out there.
He most certainly had the leverage and I don’t find it at all weird to be surprised by him only getting one year tacked on. He was still worth well that much his last three truncated seasons if you put any merit into what on WAR costs now.
Shouldn't this be reversed? If he's not going to retire at 33, then he can get another contract after this so AAV should be more important.
Not if he burns out or has a career ending injury. Grab the most money you can while you can, when you can. If he left, let’s say, 5/$140 (which is still way low imo) on the table elsewhere and then his back gives out or he goes Lincecum, he’s left a lot of money in the table.
I don’t think he’s planning on that, but I also think he could have gotten a better total package elsewhere. He’s not going to get another big deal in his career, I would have imagined he’d grab the biggest one he could and I don’t think that’s a rare view of it. I’m not sure how many people weren’t surprised he only extended for one year.
Cubs announced today that Maddon's not getting extended this off-season. Cubs Twitter thinks Theo has his eye on Girardi.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi of the Seibu Lions will be posted this offseason and has hired Boras as his agent. He's been the most heavily scouted Japanese pitcher this year, so this is no surprise. He's 27, and looks likely to slot in as a decent #3 or so if he stays healthy.
A reminder on the current posting system rules (clipped from the article):
Jeff Passan says Seattle is strongly considering blowing it up. Him and Heyman say they want to keep Haniger, Diaz, and Gonzalez while everyone else is available.
is there anyone besides Paxton that would fetch any real value?
Haniger, Segura, Cano (if they're willing to eat a ton of salary). Gonzalez, Diaz, and Leake should draw some interest on the pitching side.
as mentioned, Haniger, Diaz and Gonzalez are off-limits.
Leake is fungible... Segura I guess still has value, yes.
Ahh...I should really read the preceding posts.
Harper rejected an “aggressive” offer from the Nats late in the season that included no opt-outs but was less than $400 million.
Farhan Zaidi leaves the Dodgers front office to take the Giants GM job, that seems like a really big deal with him going to their main rivals.
To get around the fancy titles which have caused confusion around here before, Zaidi has essentially left a glorified assistant GM job for a GM job. (Officially, he left his job as the Dodgers' general manager under their President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman to become the Giants' President of Baseball Operations.)
Boras signaled a switch to first base in a radio interview with mlb radio. No surprise. His outfield defense has deteriorated markedly, his legs are not what they were.
Is anyone actually going to pay $400 million for a decade of a first baseman whose offense has been boom and bust? Especially when it's an admission of physical decline at just 26 years old? When the final contract is signed, I think he's going to regret turning down the $300 million guarantee from Washington unless he has no intention of staying there.
I wouldn’t, but all it takes is one, recognizing that teams seem to be getting smarter.
Effectively, I think the Nats have made their first, best and last offer. They are not going to wait around and play the Boras game of pushing this well into the offseason.
I think it was maybe a PR move that they knew he wouldn't accept, I bet if he circles back to them they will offer less. They have Soto, Robles and Eaton in the OF, Ryan Zimmerman at 1B for $18M for one more year, and no DH in the NL.
Impossible to prove, but I think they want him. He’s a foundational player for this franchise. Assuming he doesn’t transition to 1B next year, it would free them to trade Robles for other needs, esp SP.
But Rizzo is not going to play the Boras game. So unless he is undercut by ownership, we’re probably done.
I do think they leaked the offer, a quite respectable offer, for PR purposes.
I am happy the Red Sox have neither the need nor the resources to fish in these waters.
Any chance Cashman would try to spin off Stanton and go after Harper?
Is there a GM that is more in Boras’ pocket than Rizzo? I think he’s a very good GM but there a pretty long track record there.
I mean, it's possible, the Dodgers have a ton of catching depth and NY could really use one or two of those guys, but Stanton is signed with an $22M/year AAV and is a better defensive OF than Harper by all accounts. NY could certainly use a big lefty bat in the middle of all of those righties but that seems like a risky upgrade for a lot more money (let's assume it is 10/$350 for the sake of this discussion and that might be low).
Is the bolded true? I thought Stanton was generally considered to be a butcher in the field. I’m terrible at looking up advanced defensive stats/ratings, so I may be way off base here.
No, he's always been solid to good and had surprisingly good UZR numbers last year, look at the UZR and UZR/150 numbers here:
This is why Cashman chose him over going after JD Martinez last year, he thought they were comparable offensively and Stanton was a much better OF option.
Also Harper was horrendous this past season by defensive metrics, maybe a bit of a fluke but pretty scary if you are the team signing the $300-$400M deal.
It isnt Rizzo that is in Boras' "pocket" but the ownership team. I would not be surprised to see him going straight to the LErners to keep the Nats in it all offseason
This is true.
For example, a couple of years ago Rizzo was pleading for more $ to bolster the bullpen. The Lerner’s answer — “so much and no more; we don’t have the money for what you want.”
Out of the blue, Boras gets to the Lerners and Matt Wieters winds up with $21 million for two years. Rizzo was not pleased, but he’s a pro so he said nothing. Fans here were apoplectic.
That’s typical. I’m a little surprised Rizzo re-upped here. I am not surprised he did so at a high pay rate but short years.
Rizzo certainly has made mistakes but he’s very good. He’s particularly good at trying to make things work. When weird stuff happens here, look to the owner’s box.
Sources: The Mariners are working to finish a trade that would send catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia to the Rays in exchange for outfielder Mallex Smith. Deal could be finalized in the next day.
Thanks for the info. I had no idea.
CBS thinks it was more like $350m.