2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma

[nothumb]

I don't think anyone is counting on Brady to be good, or even available in 2018. I'm saying you won't know otherwise soon enough to justify the opportunity cost of keeping Jimmy.

Say Brady plays well to start the year but injures his throwing shoulder in week 11. Jimmy steps in and plays fine, makes the playoffs let's say. At the end of the year, Brady is rehabbing and plans to return. Jimmy wants a long term deal and a starting job. What do you do? Franchise and trade him? Franchise him and wait to see how Brady recovers, totally wrecking your cap and FA prospects? Let him walk?

The problem with keeping him is that even if you successfully hedge against a Brady health issue or decline, you may not be in a position to reap the benefits because of the decision window.

I think IF Brady noticeably declines in 2017, it's more likely to be a somewhat ambiguous or unpredictable situation going into the offseason, not a clear cut thing where you drop him and keep Jimmy. Sure, he could fall off a cliff or wreck his ACL in week 17 and you would be fairly sure you need Jimmy in 2018, but for every time that happens, you probably have two or three others where it's a much more marginal call, and you can't keep both.

 

[DourDoerr]

Seems like 1st rounder or bust seems to simplistic an approach when it's possible there is more value elsewhere.

Agreed. Should have said 1st or the equivalent in value.

In the wake of a JG trade, Brissett is the next guy up, of course, but I expect BB to draft at least 1 quarterback this draft to push Brissett as well as up the odds of finding the Brady replacement.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

I think the skepticism here is fair, but we aren't even talking two years from now. If the Pats keep Jimmy this offseason, one year from now they will be facing the decision whether to tag him, extend him or let him walk. And in exchange for that year of evaluation (and JG as a backup) they will be giving up a first round pick and more.

Caveats about old QBs aside, the likelihood that you would get such a definitive decline from Brady in that span that you know you are moving on is very low. Even if he gets hurt he will probably say he plans to come back.

Go and take a look at the quarterbacks who have played in this age range (37?+) - they fall apart FAST. Manning went from an MVP candidate to the worst quarterback in the league in less than a year (and was out of the league the next). Favre did the same thing. So did Marino. Palmer was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, and was a borderline starter this year.

"Not even two years out" is an eternity for an NFL player of this age.

Again - this hinges on them thinking JG is a probowl level player - but if he is, the consequences of letting him walk are way higher than the lost opportunity cost of a first round pick.

Say Brady plays well to start the year but injures his throwing shoulder in week 11. Jimmy steps in and plays fine, makes the playoffs let's say. At the end of the year, Brady is rehabbing and plans to return. Jimmy wants a long term deal and a starting job. What do you do? Franchise and trade him? Franchise him and wait to see how Brady recovers, totally wrecking your cap and FA prospects? Let him walk?

No, you don't let your 26 year old good quarterback walk to keep your 40+ year old quarterback with the hurt shoulder. No way, no how.

Yes, Brady is fantastic. He's the goat. But the franchise will exist after he's gone, and you don't hamstring it for 5+ years to give him another year.

 

[heavyde050]

Go and take a look at the quarterbacks who have played in this age range (37?+) - they fall apart FAST. Manning went from an MVP candidate to the worst quarterback in the league in less than a year (and was out of the league the next). Favre did the same thing. So did Marino. Palmer was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, and was a borderline starter this year.

"Not even two years out" is an eternity for an NFL player of this age.

Again - this hinges on them thinking JG is a probowl level player - but if he is, the consequences of letting him walk are way higher than the lost opportunity cost of a first round pick.




No, you don't let your 26 year old good quarterback walk to keep your 40+ year old quarterback with the hurt shoulder. No way, no how.

Yes, Brady is fantastic. He's the goat. But the franchise will exist after he's gone, and you don't hamstring it for 5+ years to give him another year.

The Brady to Manning comparison isn't fair as Manning had three neck surgeries.
Also to be fair Jimmy G has just an extensive injury history as Brady and he has played about 14 less seasons.
Aside from blowing out his knee, Brady is an ironman.
I agree they should keep Jimmy if they can work out the real deal and no one blows them away with a trade offer but the pessimism on Brady seems to be a little too much using the examples above.

 

[nothumb]

Go and take a look at the quarterbacks who have played in this age range (37?+) - they fall apart FAST. Manning went from an MVP candidate to the worst quarterback in the league in less than a year (and was out of the league the next). Favre did the same thing. So did Marino. Palmer was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, and was a borderline starter this year.

"Not even two years out" is an eternity for an NFL player of this age.

Again - this hinges on them thinking JG is a probowl level player - but if he is, the consequences of letting him walk are way higher than the lost opportunity cost of a first round pick.




No, you don't let your 26 year old good quarterback walk to keep your 40+ year old quarterback with the hurt shoulder. No way, no how.

Yes, Brady is fantastic. He's the goat. But the franchise will exist after he's gone, and you don't hamstring it for 5+ years to give him another year.

The Patriots are known for being very rational about this kind of thing, but I can't see them realistically dropping Brady if he's still playing well and coming off a treatable injury. Unless Jimmy steps in and makes a deep run / plays at an All Pro level, which, even if he's got a bright future he might not do on limited prep.

And that's actually one of the easier scenarios. A decent portion of the time, Brady will make it thru 2017 healthy, you won't see anything additional with Jimmy and you'll need to make the same call.

I agree with being ready for Brady to fall off a cliff, but I think you also have to consider that he is in a very different place medically than any other comparable old QB. He could still shit the bed, but the fact that nobody else has played that long isn't completely determinitave. Guys like Favre and Manning were physically shot by the end. Their performance dropped off a cliff, but the medical issues that drove them off were known 2-3 years in advance, they just hadn't overwhelmed their abilities yet.

Both believing that Brady can play forever AND believing he can't play another 3-4 years due to comps are logical fallacies. The people with the best info to make an educated guess at the truth are TB himself and the Pats medical team. If they think he's a decent bet to end 2017 healthy and in uniform, trading Jimmy makes a lot of sense.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Both believing that Brady can play forever AND believing he can't play another 3-4 years due to comps are logical fallacies. The people with the best info to make an educated guess at the truth are TB himself and the Pats medical team. If they think he's a decent bet to end 2017 healthy and in uniform, trading Jimmy makes a lot of sense.

Of course they're logical fallacies - they're also arguments no one is making.

Its possible he's still playing in 2020. It's just vanishingly unlikely.

 

[BigJimEd]

So HS are you fine with letting JG walk next off-season and getting a comp pick? Or are you looking to trade Brady next year?

I think the chances of both being on the roster come March 2018 are pretty slim.

 

[Saints Rest]

No one seems to be considering the possibility that if the Pats were to trade JG in this off-season, they could sign a veteran as backup.

Jimmy G is worth a lot more to a team who needs him to play every game in 2017 (and forward) than he does to the Patriots, unless and until TB12 goes down for the season. A short-term injury to Brady would not alter that equation much. Hell, the Pats went 1-1 this year in games that JB started. So maybe you think JB needs some more time to be ready, go sign whoever the 2017 equivalent of Damon Huard, or Jim Miller, or Vinny Testaverde.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

The Patriots are known for being very rational about this kind of thing, but I can't see them realistically dropping Brady if he's still playing well and coming off a treatable injury. Unless Jimmy steps in and makes a deep run / plays at an All Pro level, which, even if he's got a bright future he might not do on limited prep.

And that's actually one of the easier scenarios. A decent portion of the time, Brady will make it thru 2017 healthy, you won't see anything additional with Jimmy and you'll need to make the same call.

I agree with being ready for Brady to fall off a cliff, but I think you also have to consider that he is in a very different place medically than any other comparable old QB. He could still shit the bed, but the fact that nobody else has played that long isn't completely determinitave. Guys like Favre and Manning were physically shot by the end. Their performance dropped off a cliff, but the medical issues that drove them off were known 2-3 years in advance, they just hadn't overwhelmed their abilities yet.

Both believing that Brady can play forever AND believing he can't play another 3-4 years due to comps are logical fallacies. The people with the best info to make an educated guess at the truth are TB himself and the Pats medical team. If they think he's a decent bet to end 2017 healthy and in uniform, trading Jimmy makes a lot of sense.

Just to throw yet another variable in the mix, even if you subscribe to the theory that a medically healthy, forty-year old Brady can compete physically, you're starting to push up against the onset of normative cognitive decline. He certainly has an enormous bank of learned experience and knowledge to draw on, but he's at an age where you'd assume that things start moving a little bit faster and adjustments on the fly become a little bit more difficult to make.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Brady is not showing any signs of aging yet. He moves as well in the pocket as he ever has and his passes are as crisp as ever. He even seems to be good on the deep passes (not as good as 2007 when he had Moss, but very passable). If he's this good at 39, why wouldn't he be damn close at 40 which is just 2 1/2 percent older? And then 41. I do think it's time to start calling him a freak. An ageless one. He's also smarter than ever, as knowledge from game experience is cumulative.

 

[pappymojo]

Warren Moon made the Pro Bowl at 41.

Just saying.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Warren Moon made the Pro Bowl at 41.

Just saying.

If the Pats hold onto JG and Brady puts up Moon's '97 line next year, Brady is finishing his career in Buffalo.

 

[soxhop411]

“@MaryKayCabot: Not only will the #Browns pursue #Patriots Garoppolo, they have the picks to pull it off https://t.co/6YFOHClujj

HOUSTON, Tex. - The Browns will try to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade with the Patriots, as multiple sources have told cleveland.com, and they have the ammunition to pull it off.

They have the No. 1 and No. 12 overall picks in the first round, and the No. 33 and No. 52 picks in the second round. All told, they have five picks in the first 65.

In a perfect world, they'd keep both of their first round picks, but that might not be possible. Multiple teams are expected to pursue Garoppolo, which could drive up the price.

The Patriots are also looking to start the bidding at a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Garoppolo is also the Bears' No. 1 offseason priority, according to Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports. He said Chicago might "engage in talks on Garoppolo at the combine later this month, or sooner if need be." The Bears have the No. 3 overall pick in the draft and No. 36 in the second round.

In addition, Kyle Shanahan, who's set to become head coach of the 49ers after the Super Bowl, could express interest in Garoppolo, and the 49ers have the No. 2 and No. 34 picks.

Shanahan admitted at the Super Bowl this week that he really liked Garoppolo coming out of the draft in 2014, and the second-rounder appreciated it.

 

[Ed Hillel]

This is awesome, they're gonna get a haul. I'm thinking 12th pick this year and either the Browns 3rd in 2017 or 2nd in 2018, something like that. This is what Trent Dilfer gets for fucking with Adam Schefter.

 

[bankshot1]

This is awesome, they're gonna get a haul. I'm thinking 12 and the Browns 3rd or 2nd next year, something like that. This is what Trent Dilfer gets for fucking with Adam Schefter.

We need Vontae Mack too.

 

[nothumb]

Just to throw yet another variable in the mix, even if you subscribe to the theory that a medically healthy, forty-year old Brady can compete physically, you're starting to push up against the onset of normative cognitive decline. He certainly has an enormous bank of learned experience and knowledge to draw on, but he's at an age where you'd assume that things start moving a little bit faster and adjustments on the fly become a little bit more difficult to make.

Cognitive decline in the early 40s tends to be very gradual and also varies widely among individuals. The gap between an elite QB and an average one is likely much larger than the typical decline one might see even over a multi-year period. And the scouting on Brady seems to be that he's sharper than ever.

So, I guess you could see the mental side deteriorate, but I think it would be a lower risk, and much more gradual, than the typical physical decline.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Cognitive decline in the early 40s tends to be very gradual and also varies widely among individuals. The gap between an elite QB and an average one is likely much larger than the typical decline one might see even over a multi-year period. And the scouting on Brady seems to be that he's sharper than ever.

So, I guess you could see the mental side deteriorate, but I think it would be a lower risk, and much more gradual, than the typical physical decline.

Variance in the rate of decline is understood, of course. I'm not sure I agree with the bolded. The gap between an elite and ordinary QB in terms of what is commonly referred to as "crystalized" intelligence (alternatively, savvy or experience) is almost certainly large. I'd be surprised to see large differences in basic functions such as reaction time, rapid pattern detection, etc. among quarterbacks good enough to play in the NFL. Those are the capacities I was thinking of, and the former can cover for the latter just so long.

 

[Reverend]

I hate this argument.

Brady's plans are only marginally important here. He'll be 40 before next season starts.

He could very well plan to be playing in 2020, and be a non-viable starter by game 10 next year. When older QBs fail, they fail rapidly. Injuries heal slower (or don't heal completely), little issues get exacerbated by decreases in flexibility, strength, speed, etc. Things snowball, because after the problems start, teams notice them, and start taking advantage. Yes, he's still playing at a fantasticly high level, but the chances of that being true two years from now are low.

The Patriots shouldn't be making any decisions at this point based on the assumption that Tom Brady will be able to start two years from now.

They are not marginally important. They are a precondition. As such they are essential.

There are two key variables: 1) How long will Brady be effective (great/good/OK/sucky); 2) How long is he willing to play.

Given Brady's age and ability, (2) comes up in weird ways. He's in the rare category where it is imaginable that he might decide to stop playing before he ceases to be effective. Knowing what he might decide to do is therefore relevant.

Just because that doesn't happen often doesn't mean it's not relevant in some circumstances.

 

[Valek123]

The real question is who are the qb sleepers in this draft in the late 3rd or 4th round? Those will likely be the selection if we trade Jimmune G to push JB, so is there an outlier?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Warren Moon made the Pro Bowl at 41.

Just saying.

To be fair, he was named as an injury replacement for Elway.

And, to be fair, he was MVP of that game.

 

[BigJimEd]

The real question is who are the qb sleepers in this draft in the late 3rd or 4th round? Those will likely be the selection if we trade Jimmune G to push JB, so is there an outlier?

I'm not so sure about that. If there is one they really like they'll draft him but otherwise I could see them waiting a year or two.

 

[Curt S Loew]

If the Pats hold onto JG and Brady puts up Moon's '97 line next year, Brady is finishing his career in Buffalo.

Nah. I would go with SF.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

The real question is who are the qb sleepers in this draft in the late 3rd or 4th round? Those will likely be the selection if we trade Jimmune G to push JB, so is there an outlier?

Here's the list on the QB's in this years draft. Kaaya is in the range your talking about, but I don't know much about any of these guys absent the top 3, Kaaya, and Kelly. I think it would be really cool if we trade Jimmy G for someone's first or early second rounder and grab one of the top 3 guys. I could handle Watson throwing to Renfrow in Pats uniforms in 3-4 years.

2017 NFL Draft QB Prospect Rankings

 

[EricFeczko]

With regards to the last part of the thread where people were making unsubstantiated claims regarding aging: horseshit.

Cognitive decline is not a singular trajectory. Speed of information processing (e.g. measures of abilities like working memory, covert/overt orienting, task switching) decline once you hit 30.
Crystallized knowledge increases as you age, and there is little evidence that healthy aging degrades memory (in fact, such evidence is how we dissociate unhealthy from healthy aging).

WRT to QBs, I must've posted this at least twice a year.
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/08/how-quarterbacks-age.html?m=1

When you examine the data, QB aging does not appear to have a central tendency (and possibly no trajectory).
The last year of every QB's career, on average, is within 66 percent of a QB's seasonal performance (i.e. is not an outlier -- despite the typo in the article). Removing the last year eliminates the downward trend entirely. It is far more likely that, on average, QBs retire before they "suck".

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

With regards to the last part of the thread where people were making unsubstantiated claims regarding aging: horseshit.

Cognitive decline is not a singular trajectory. Speed of information processing (e.g. measures of abilities like working memory, covert/overt orienting, task switching) decline once you hit 30.
Crystallized knowledge increases as you age, and there is little evidence that healthy aging degrades memory (in fact, such evidence is how we dissociate unhealthy from healthy aging).

WRT to QBs, I must've posted this at least twice a year.
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/08/how-quarterbacks-age.html?m=1

When you examine the data, QB aging does not appear to have a central tendency (and possibly no trajectory).
The last year of every QB's career, on average, is within 66 percent of a QB's seasonal performance (i.e. is not an outlier -- despite the typo in the article). Removing the last year eliminates the downward trend entirely. It is far more likely that, on average, QBs retire before they "suck".

Assuming you're addressing my post, if you want to point out where I made a "claim" of any sort as to what was going to happen to TB, highlight it. If you're suggesting that the potential for cognitive decline in a 40 yo QB playing a very fast game isn't even in the mix as a variable: horseshit.

 

[EricFeczko]

Assuming you're addressing my post, if you want to point out where I made a "claim" of any sort as to what was going to happen to TB, highlight it. If you're suggesting that the potential for cognitive decline in a 40 yo QB playing a very fast game isn't even in the mix as a variable: horseshit.

Oh, neither. Actually, yours was one of the posts I liked.


Sorry about that, I was more ticked by HS, and notthumb talking about decline periods and getting them completely wrong. Cognitive decline, defined by speed of information processing inferred from executive function tasks, already starts declining when you reach 30.
It's a fast decline that asymptotes in your late 40s.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Oh, neither. Actually, yours was one of the posts I liked.

Sorry about that, I was more ticked by HS, and notthumb talking about decline periods and getting them completely wrong. Cognitive decline, defined by speed of information processing inferred from executive function tasks, already starts declining when you reach 30.

No worries. Ignore my tirade.

This has been another episode of "when neuropsychologists collide."

 

[EricFeczko]

No worries. Ignore my tirade.

This has been another episode of "when neuropsychologists collide."

Yeah. Its 9:30 where I am, and I'm just waking up. I should've done some multiquoting

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Another consideration is if Brady can play another two years I believe Matt Ryan is then a free agent. I think he would be a worthy successor and might be motivated to be Brady's heir by more than money especially if he doesn't win a Super Bowl in the next year or two. I would trade Jimmy if the right deal comes along.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Another consideration is if Brady can play another two years I believe Matt Ryan is then a free agent. I think he would be a worthy successor and might be motivated to be Brady's heir by more than money especially if he doesn't win a Super Bowl in the next year or two. I would trade Jimmy if the right deal comes along.

No offense, but this post makes zero sense. First off, why would Ryan want to follow Brady? And even if he wanted to leave Atlanta, the organization could just franchise him for two years. Secondly, the Falcons are already discussing extending him and making him the highest paid QB in football.

Quarterbacks like Matt Ryan never see free agency in their prime years. Ever.

 

[mauf]

I haven't read the thread, but are we assuming tomorrow isn't the last game of TB12's career?

I mean, I don't think it will be either, but should we just dismiss the possibility that he'd choose to ride off into the sunset with his fifth SB win, his mind intact (as far as we know), and spend the coming years raising his three young children? It's certainly not as though he and Gisele need the money.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I haven't read the thread, but are we assuming tomorrow isn't the last game of TB12's career?

I mean, I don't think it will be either, but should we just dismiss the possibility that he'd choose to ride off into the sunset with his fifth SB win, his mind intact (as far as we know), and spend the coming years raising his three young children? It's certainly not as though he and Gisele need the money.

He said just the other day that he 'isn't going anywhere', so take that FWIW.

 

[Red Averages]

"You know what my favorite ring is? The next one."

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Yesterday Gronk was asked if he thought Brady might be contemplating retirement. His response was “I’m around Tom Brady all the time and he talks about playing forever.”

 

[Ed Hillel]

Jack Brady is more likely to take over for Tom in 2035 than Tom is to retire after tomorrow.

 

[Tony C]

This is awesome, they're gonna get a haul. I'm thinking 12th pick this year and either the Browns 3rd in 2017 or 2nd in 2018, something like that. This is what Trent Dilfer gets for fucking with Adam Schefter.

They are gonna get a haul. What people haven't gotten is that this isn't about an analysis of Brady's future or what the consensus is on JG's future. If one team thinks JG is the answer -- and by all smoke and his limited performance we can be quite confident more than one team will think that (even if plenty of other teams won't) -- then a 1st rounder is just a starting point. Once you have that belief you don't go to fall back option - I could get Mike Glennon -- you go all in: the QB position is most important, if you think you have the possibility of getting your guy you have to be all in. Cleveland. Chicago. Maybe SF. That's all the competition you need for a haul.

The rest is noise.

 

[Reverend]

Assuming you're addressing my post, if you want to point out where I made a "claim" of any sort as to what was going to happen to TB, highlight it. If you're suggesting that the potential for cognitive decline in a 40 yo QB playing a very fast game isn't even in the mix as a variable: horseshit.

This post broke new grounds in the area of paranoid kneejerk defensiveness, which is impressive on the internet.

I assume the poster is in R&D.

 

[Reverend]

I haven't read the thread, but are we assuming tomorrow isn't the last game of TB12's career?

I mean, I don't think it will be either, but should we just dismiss the possibility that he'd choose to ride off into the sunset with his fifth SB win, his mind intact (as far as we know), and spend the coming years raising his three young children? It's certainly not as though he and Gisele need the money.

The only way I could imagine Brady doing this would be if it was with a statement that he simply didn't want to deal with Goodell anymore--Socrates style.

But as cool as that might be, I don't think Brady works like that. I think he just really, really likes football. He has an amazing life outside of football, but I think he connects that, in large measure correctly, to football. That may be too simplistic philosophically, but it's that simple approach that got him all that he has, so it would seem that it has served him well.

So yeah, beautiful wife, beautiful life, wonderful kids... it's all football.

 

[johnmd20]

The only way I could imagine Brady doing this would be if it was with a statement that he simply didn't want to deal with Goodell anymore--Socrates style.

But as cool as that might be, I don't think Brady works like that. I think he just really, really likes football. He has an amazing life outside of football, but I think he connects that, in large measure correctly, to football. That may be too simplistic philosophically, but it's that simple approach that got him all that he has, so it would seem that it has served him well.

So yeah, beautiful wife, beautiful life, wonderful kids... it's all football.

Well, it is safe to say that if the handsome Tom Brady was in middle (or upper) management at IBM or Cisco, he wouldn't be married to Giselle or have kids with Bridget Moynihan, either.

So it is all football. Which is good, keep that head straight Tom. It is all football, so keep it up for as long as you can.

 

[Reverend]

Well, it is safe to say that if the handsome Tom Brady was in middle (or upper) management at IBM or Cisco, he wouldn't be married to Giselle or have kids with Bridget Moynihan, either.

So it is all football. Which is good, keep that head straight Tom. It is all football, so keep it up for as long as you can.

 

[dcmissle]

They are gonna get a haul. What people haven't gotten is that this isn't about an analysis of Brady's future or what the consensus is on JG's future. If one team thinks JG is the answer -- and by all smoke and his limited performance we can be quite confident more than one team will think that (even if plenty of other teams won't) -- then a 1st rounder is just a starting point. Once you have that belief you don't go to fall back option - I could get Mike Glennon -- you go all in: the QB position is most important, if you think you have the possibility of getting your guy you have to be all in. Cleveland. Chicago. Maybe SF. That's all the competition you need for a haul.

The rest is noise.

All we have is noise and stupid noise at that. What Cleveland has to gain by leaking that it's targeting JG and has the ammo to get him eludes me completely. A smart team would just keep mouths shut and make its move at the appropriate time.

There could be an auction, but there may be more than one QB in it.

I'll be interested in deeds, not words, and will note in the meantime that any "big haul" would require the cooperation of the QB in terms of agreeing to an extension.

 

[bankshot1]

It comes down to one of the fundamental concepts that drives human behavior and markets:
supply and demand

It appears there is a lack of good available young QBs, and JG appears to be available for the right price.

and it appears there are at least 3 willing buyers

we have the makings for an auction.

we just don't know the Pat's reserve price.

 

[Average Reds]

All we have is noise and stupid noise at that. What Cleveland has to gain by leaking that it's targeting JG and has the ammo to get him eludes me completely. A smart team would just keep mouths shut and make its move at the appropriate time.

There could be an auction, but there may be more than one QB in it.

I'll be interested in deeds, not words, and will note in the meantime that any "big haul" would require the cooperation of the QB in terms of agreeing to an extension.

The only possible way the Browns could see this benefiting them would be to create a perception that it is useless to go up against them in the bidding and drive other teams away. (A pre-emptive strike.)

The more likely explanation is that this is a head-fake to mask their true intentions. Or that they are colossal idiots.

 

[bankshot1]

or a writer took a comment and turned it into an article.

 

[RetractableRoof]

The only possible way the Browns could see this benefiting them would be to create a perception that it is useless to go up against them in the bidding and drive other teams away. (A pre-emptive strike.)

The more likely explanation is that this is a head-fake to mask their true intentions. Or that they are colossal idiots.

I hope you are wrong... but I think you are correct. It's a head fake to maximize their draft intentions. If someone else needing a QB outbids them, then their approach in the draft potentially is cheaper to execute.

It is Cleveland though, right?

 

[soxhop411]

“@RapSheet: #Patriots will look to extend QB Tom Brady next offseason, source says. Clear indication they believe his proclamation to play into his 40s.”

 

[InstaFace]

“@RapSheet: #Patriots will look to extend QB Tom Brady next offseason, source says. Clear indication they believe his proclamation to play into his 40s.”

Also because his cap hit after next year is ~$22M, right?

They do this dance every other year or so, because Tom Brady is awesome and likes to save his team some money to get more talent on the roster. Here's a fawning, hagiographic article that provides more detail.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Some sports book makes the Bears the favorite to land Jimmy G. at 3:2 odds.

Chicago: 3:2
Patriots: 5:2
49ers: 25:2
Browns: 15:1
NY Jets: 20:1
Texans: 25:1
Broncos: 30:1

Seems to relatively undervalue the Browns vs. the rumors I've been seeing.

http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25773626/chicago-bears-favored-to-land-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?ttag=splnnlheadline102072017

Edit: Jimmy G, not Tommy B. Duh...

 

[johnmd20]

Some sports book makes the Bears the favorite to land Brady at 3:2 odds.

Chicago: 3:2
Patriots: 5:2
49ers: 25:2
Browns: 15:1
NY Jets: 20:1
Texans: 25:1
Broncos: 30:1

http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25773626/chicago-bears-favored-to-land-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?ttag=splnnlheadline102072017

Man, I didn't think Brady was on the market. What the hell Belichick? Dude just won his 5th with you and now he's on the market?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Some sports book makes the Bears the favorite to land Brady at 3:2 odds.

Chicago: 3:2
Patriots: 5:2
49ers: 25:2
Browns: 15:1
NY Jets: 20:1
Texans: 25:1
Broncos: 30:1

http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25773626/chicago-bears-favored-to-land-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?ttag=splnnlheadline102072017

Brady in a Jets uniform is a horrible image.