Hilarious.
Don't worry -- we'll have Myles Garrett in a Pats uni with the 1/1 before we're done here.
2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
Don't worry -- we'll have Myles Garrett in a Pats uni with the 1/1 before we're done here.
Looking forward to turning Jimmy G into an impact player and Jake Butt (with the 3rd/4th we get as part of the package).
The X factor is that the Patriots could still franchise JG next offseason before trading him, like they did with Cassel. Obviously the QB franchise tag will be very high, which means that a team acquiring JG would have to give him a pretty big long contract to make it worth his while not to just play under tag, all of which works against the value of the trade compensation they'd be willing to give the Patriots. But that was also true in 2009 (Cassel's tag was close to 15M, which was a lot in 2009 dollars) and the Patriots still got 33 overall in exchange for Cassel, which is obviously a lot better than a comp pick.
Right, I am kind of baking that in to the delta when I say it's likely to be at least a first. I think a lot of the time you'll be in a spot where you'd be tagging Jimmy even though he took few, if any meaningful snaps in 2017. Others, he might get into a few games, but he won't have the same prep advantages he did in 2016. Even if people like him, he'll have way less of a track record than Cassell, who played a full year.
I doubt we'll ever get to find out, but my guess is you would get a low 2nd or a 3rd for him with the tag, on average. Better or worse depending on who's in the market and whether he does anything. One advantage this year is you have several teams with weaker FOs in the market for a QB and few great options in the draft. That could happen again next year, but it's no lock.
Arizona had a pretty good defense (#2 yardage defense) and Miami ended up making the playoffs, so these weren't performances against weak sisters. And as far as the offensive talent, Garoppolo didn't have Gronk, and for Week 1 he didn't have Solder. And he was very impressive. I don't place much stock in "ample prep time" - he had the same amount of prep time he would have in a new spot, or that Brady would have had if he was starting. It's still a fairly small sample size, but it was an encouraging display.
Is there a specific reason to think Washington would not be interested in Garoppolo? They seem pretty close to competing and they have to know what they have with Colt McCoy. I don't think Jimmy G's skill set would be incompatible with Gruden's O.
Miami did end up making the playoffs, but week 2 Miami was nowhere near as good as end of season Miami. Like night and day difference.
Jimmy G was fantastic for a quarter and change against them though.
Miami's offense improved as the year went on, but the D was probably better early. They gave up 30 points in each of their last 3 games (including playoffs), but the 31 Jimmy G / Brissett hung on them was the most until Week 13.
They were damn close to beating the Seahawks in Seattle in week 1 and pushed the Pats to the limit in Foxboro in week 2. They were real.
I must be misremembering. The week 2 game against Miami that Jimmy G started was a pretty easy for the Pats until the Dolphins scored 14 points in the 4th.
The same defense that gave up 24 to the Browns the following week (week 3) and 30 points to the Titans (week 5)?
Jimmy G is a good quarterback. I am just saying that the Dolphins got better later in the year and the Cardinals were better in the beginning.
The week after the Titans game, the Dolphins held the Steelers to 15. The defense was pretty Jekyll-and-Hyde, both early in the year and later. It wasn't bad, wasn't good either.
FWIW, the Browns had a pick-six in that game, so only 17 points on O. Which still isn't great, because Browns, but better.
Peter KingVerified account@SI_PeterKing
Going on record now (and it won’t be the first time I’m wrong, as you know): I don’t believe Pats will trade Garoppolo. For any price.
Going on record now (and it won’t be the first time I’m wrong, as you know): I don’t believe Pats will trade Garoppolo. For any price.
Well, that's straight BS, because if the price is right he'll definitely trade him. Now, perhaps they've decided that they're not really interested in it, but the "for any price" is a qualifier that isn't needed.
I'm still in the camp that they are banking on Brady not becoming P. Manning next year and that they are not particularly calculating for 'catastrophic mid-season injury'.
They will be looking to maximize chance of success during Brady's window more than chance of success in a Brady-or-backup-QB window. This is because winning it all with Brady is a more likely scenario than any other.
A first round pick accomplishes this better than JG-as-backup does. If JB has to sub in for in a non-catastrophic-injury scenario, so be it. As long as they think JB is at least adequate as a stop-gap, they'll trade JG for a 1st and a nth, and they'll draft another QB in the 3rd or 4th round (maybe even 2nd).
They will be looking to maximize chance of success during Brady's window more than chance of success in a Brady-or-backup-QB window. This is because winning it all with Brady is a more likely scenario than any other.
A first round pick accomplishes this better than JG-as-backup does. If JB has to sub in for in a non-catastrophic-injury scenario, so be it. As long as they think JB is at least adequate as a stop-gap, they'll trade JG for a 1st and a nth, and they'll draft another QB in the 3rd or 4th round (maybe even 2nd).
This sums up where I am too. I would keep Jimmy if they can't good value but from all the rumors it sounds like he will at least fetch a mid first rounder this year that they Pats really can't pass on.
If the league hadn't taken a first rounder for Deflategate it may be a different story, but the Pats need more talent to continue to maximize SB opportunities.
Is there a chance the 4 games off helped Brady be fresh and healthy at the end of the season?
Is there a time they play Jimmy for a quarter up big a few times?
Is there a time they play Jimmy for a quarter up big a few times?
Well beyond the fact that everything leaks here -- EVERYTHING -- and JG has not come up ...
He would not come cheaply. To be sure, his next contract (if he agrees to extend), will be less expensive than Cousins'. But they would have surrender significant draft choices -- unless JG (wisely in my view) refused to extend in DC, in which case he probably would not be dealt here, and WA would not be interested. One year rental does not do much for them.
They need their draft ammo to improve the defense, add a running back, and so forth.
Parting with Cousins would represent a decision to go cheap at the position and try to get the next Dak, Russell Wilson and so forth. It's very risky -- arguably, borderline delusional -- but almost every team has a smartest kid in the class.
They screwed up last year when they failed to sign Cousins to a contract that right now would look very favorable.
Cousins wasn't their guy, right? How they feel about Cousins might not reflect how they feel about Garoppolo. You're certainly more aware of the rumor mill there than I am, but it wouldn't be surprising to me for a team to feel like Cousins is just a guy but Jimmy G could be more than that.
There is no WA thread, but this seems at least tangentially related to this thread. Armchair thoughts on Cousins based on some solid reporting and having a field box seat to a circus that will be entering its 19th year in May:
1. McCloughan did not draft Cousins, and that's often a ticket to divorce. But 2 years ago, McCloughan, Jay Gruden and Bruce Allen had an "intervention" with Snyder, persuading him to pass the torch from RGIII to Cousins, who has put up two very productive seasons. Had the intervention not succeeded, all of them except Snyder would probably be gone. To that limited extent, Cousins is McCloughan's guy. He definitely is Gruden's guy. Allen -- ?
2. McCloughan's reservations, if any, stem from being a "value" guy -- and fear of paying a good QB elite money. He's not stupid, so he knows that's what the market commands because of fear of being in the QB abyss. But he has sufficient self confidence to believe he probably can do better than this.
3. They screwed up last season by failing to offer Cousins anything approaching a viable long term contract. They demanded that he "show" them. He did, so Cousins now will like pocket close to $44 million in guaranteed money by being franchised in consecutive years.
4. They like Cousins but don't love him. At the very least Snyder does not love him -- Cousins is a breathing everyday reminder of the catastrophe of RGIII. Owners, NFL owners especially, hate being wrong, and emotional considerations like this often drive decision making.
5. Because Cousins has been treated shabbily by the team, and because the organization is unstable, I do not see him signing here long term. He would require a premium to sign a long term deal, and I'm doubtful they will offer FMV (see above) much less a premium.
6. They will tag him because Cousins represents an asset even at the franchise price. From there there are two likely paths -- tag and trade, tag and move on after 2017 while trying to find a successor in the meantime. Don't know which one they will take; that will likely depend on the trade market.
7. What you suggest -- move on from Cousins, trade for JG -- is of course theoretically possible. The goal would be to use the draft compensation from the Cousins deal to acquire JG, who would be signed to a sub-Cousins contract. But it would be quite the chess challenge, requiring bold, swift moves on several fronts, and there are no Ben Cheringtons here.
8. Even if it could be pulled off, it would be risky. Everyone knows the fortunes of former Patriot QBs. Everyone knows he has zero experience in Gruden's offense, which is quite different from the Patriots' system. And I'll reiterate a point made before -- I would not sign a long term deal here if I were JG, for the same reasons Cousins won't barring a ridiculous overpay. A fail by JG here -- quite possible if given only a year -- would land everyone on the street. The owner has an unrealistic sense of what it takes to succeed, has little patience and is still immature.
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I think it comes down to the alternatives. Washington's picking 17th, so even if they like one of the top quarterback prospects, there's no guarantee he is available. This is a pretty shallow QB draft so the next tier of guys doesn't look that appealing. So they can a) pay top dollar for Cousins, b) franchise Cousins again and basically punt the "QB of the future decision" until next year, c) hope the guy they want falls to them at 17, d) pay a king's ransom to move up for the guy they want, e) trade for Jimmy G, f) some other stopgap option (Cutler? Romo? Ride with Colt?), g) some other longish-term option that will still cost (Tyrod Taylor, Glennon, Kaepernick, AJ McCarron). That's not a terrific set of options; I think you can argue Garoppolo offers the best combination of floor, value, and upside. Like a lot of the teams in the Jimmy G sweepstakes, it's going to come down to how they evaluate Garoppolo relative to the draft options.
None of the college QBs are going to have experience in Gruden's offense, either. Garoppolo might be coming from a different system, but he still figures to be better-prepared in year one than any of the rookies. Washington made the playoffs in 2015 and finished 9-7 last year; are they really going to want to take a step back in 2017?
As for Garoppolo's contract, Washington has some leverage, given that he's got one year left at about a million and then can be franchised. And they can make a long-term deal a precondition of the trade.
Given the surrounding talent, how many NFL QBs perform better than Cousins did last year?
I understand the Snyder-centric reasons why it might happen, but I think moving on from Cousins in search of greener pastures is pretty nuts.
I understand the Snyder-centric reasons why it might happen, but I think moving on from Cousins in search of greener pastures is pretty nuts.
Hey ... remember Jimmy Garoppolo?
Is it a "perfect storm" for Patriots?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785384/article/garoppolo-trade-could-be-perfect-storm-for-patriots
While Josh McCown sings his praises
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785185/article/mccown-garoppolo-has-potential-to-carry-a-franchise
Is it a "perfect storm" for Patriots?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785384/article/garoppolo-trade-could-be-perfect-storm-for-patriots
While Josh McCown sings his praises
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000785185/article/mccown-garoppolo-has-potential-to-carry-a-franchise
The problem is he's showed them he's like a (shorthand)10th-to12th best quarterback. He's not super young, so what you see is what you get. He's in an offense that's good for him, but is going to start getting very expensive to keep together this offseason. Oh, and the defense is a tire fire so its not like this is a title contender as is, resources are needed elsewhere
So I think the most likely outcome from moving on from Cousins is the team gets worse, I can certainly see the case for finding an alternative to not paying Cousins a zillion dollars if the goal is championship or bust. The most likely outcome of inking Cousins is medicority.
So I think the most likely outcome from moving on from Cousins is the team gets worse, I can certainly see the case for finding an alternative to not paying Cousins a zillion dollars if the goal is championship or bust. The most likely outcome of inking Cousins is medicority.
Not very many, and he's expert tuning out the franchise dysfunction, which is a definite plus.
This year he had the benefit of an improved, reasonably healthy, good but not great o-line.
And you have to love his pass catching options.
But not his running backs and certainly not that defense, which puts unremitting pressure on the whole team.
Keep everything constant and swap in a QB who is worse, you are looking at a bottom quadrille team. They cannot afford this.
Which is why it's a good bet they keep him at $24 this year while ISO "the answer". Conceivably, they could transition tag him for $28 in "18 if that answer does not appear. He is professional -- you don't have to worry about pouting, not getting his best, whatever.
Of course, if I pulled down $72 million over three years, or $44 over two, because my team lost a game of "show me!" and then doubled or tripled down on it, I would not be complaining much.
(I really like JG. I hope we do not trade him. But I'm surprised anyone thinks that 2+ games in the books is much of a warranty. Cassel had 15. Of course, I'm old enough to remember Scotty Mitchell too).
It is starting to feel that way. It helps that the 3 teams that desperately need a QB pick 1,2, 3 and 12. Not to mention teams like Houston that may start bidding. The Patriots have all the leverage in the situation and there isn't a clear supply change that'll occur to bring it down. All we need is one team to overbid.
Keep in mind the Pats could also switch firsts and get additional picks in '17/'18. That's before BB flips a top '12 pick into other picks.
Keep in mind the Pats could also switch firsts and get additional picks in '17/'18. That's before BB flips a top '12 pick into other picks.
If he can't, they won't be trading him. I think it's either the 12 pick plus another high round pick or something like a top 3 pick and a 3rd/future 2nd for Jimmy and the 32nd.
So I say yes, and it will happen within 3 weeks.
Edit - Beaten by seconds!
The crowd at the ballgame will let him know through their adoration of the kings
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I do think he'll go for at least a first. I'm not sure I'm following?
Edit - OHHHHH...I'm a dummy lol. Nice.
Yup, pretty much, except IMO the Ravens were a little better set up for '13-'14
Quarterback rating, all QBs who started at least one game in 2016:
1, Matt Ryan 117.1
2. Jimmy Garoppolo 113.3
3. Tom Brady 112.2
.
.
.
28. Eli Manning 86.0
29. Trevor Siemian 84.6
30. Jacoby Brissett 83.9
31. Joe Flacco 83.5
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm
1, Matt Ryan 117.1
2. Jimmy Garoppolo 113.3
3. Tom Brady 112.2
.
.
.
28. Eli Manning 86.0
29. Trevor Siemian 84.6
30. Jacoby Brissett 83.9
31. Joe Flacco 83.5
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm
Was gonna post
*To be fair Joe Flacco (and 29 others ahead of him) didnt play one game with only one hand.
Then actually looked it up....
Crazy that JB was actually better (86.2) in his second "one handed" start then in his win (72.9)
*To be fair Joe Flacco (and 29 others ahead of him) didnt play one game with only one hand.
Then actually looked it up....
Crazy that JB was actually better (86.2) in his second "one handed" start then in his win (72.9)
Just had another thought that seems to have gotten lost in this debate.
In any other universe where Tom Brady is Mortal, BB is a (even greater) genius. In said universe we would have probably moved on from our 38 or 39yo QB who went the away of Elway and retired at the top after SB49. Meanwhile the Patriots would have their "Young or Rodgers" and the Winning train would have just kept on keeping on.
Basically BB planned for having a shitty Brady in 2015 or 2016. Which is an absolutely sage and reasonable thing to have thought about a 38 yo Qb. He planned for it, he took steps to mitigate it. And those Steps look to have resulted in very good results. The Patriots just find themselves not needing to utilize that contingency.
One more reason In Bill we trust.
In any other universe where Tom Brady is Mortal, BB is a (even greater) genius. In said universe we would have probably moved on from our 38 or 39yo QB who went the away of Elway and retired at the top after SB49. Meanwhile the Patriots would have their "Young or Rodgers" and the Winning train would have just kept on keeping on.
Basically BB planned for having a shitty Brady in 2015 or 2016. Which is an absolutely sage and reasonable thing to have thought about a 38 yo Qb. He planned for it, he took steps to mitigate it. And those Steps look to have resulted in very good results. The Patriots just find themselves not needing to utilize that contingency.
One more reason In Bill we trust.
I know it can never be proved or disproved, but I don't think the Pats win SB50 or SB51 with Jimmy G in place of Brady.
BB is amazing and definitely had backup plans in place, but I am not sure he thought Brady would suck in 2015 and 2016.
Edit for clarity - I realize the Pats only won SB51 with Brady.
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It occurs to me that we may be looking at the idea of trading Jimmy G backwards. IOW, instead of thinking, what will another team give up, look at it as what might BB want that he can use Jimmy G to acquire.
Maybe BB wants a top 3 pick. Maybe Jimmy G is not the prize of the trade, but rather a key component to get that top 3 pick. So maybe it's JG + #32 + #96 for #2. Maybe because BB really wants Player X who would only be there at #2.
Or something similar.
Maybe BB wants a top 3 pick. Maybe Jimmy G is not the prize of the trade, but rather a key component to get that top 3 pick. So maybe it's JG + #32 + #96 for #2. Maybe because BB really wants Player X who would only be there at #2.
Or something similar.
My point wasnt (and isnt) so much that Jimmy G gives us (or would give us in a hypothetical universe) Wins in 50 or 51.
My point was that many teams find themselves at the end with a star player and not having made arrangements for life after. Either through lassitude or "bad luck".
While the rest of us were happily enjoying Brady in his 35th and 36th year BB was already thinking "there is a good chance that he sucks soon.....we need to draft a GOOD and probable Heir QB". That in and of itself isnt genius. Its pretty damn smart but not genius.
They fact that he has seemingly hit on a top15 QB (or better) at the exact time that he *Should have needed one is pretty damn telling. Especially when 75% of the league cant get it right.
My point was that many teams find themselves at the end with a star player and not having made arrangements for life after. Either through lassitude or "bad luck".
While the rest of us were happily enjoying Brady in his 35th and 36th year BB was already thinking "there is a good chance that he sucks soon.....we need to draft a GOOD and probable Heir QB". That in and of itself isnt genius. Its pretty damn smart but not genius.
They fact that he has seemingly hit on a top15 QB (or better) at the exact time that he *Should have needed one is pretty damn telling. Especially when 75% of the league cant get it right.
Schefter sums up the common-sense state of things:
Speaking on Mike & Mike this morning, ESPN Insider Adam Schefter suggests that despite whatever reservations the Patriots might have on moving Garoppolo, they may eventually get an offer too good to turn down.
"There are different people in the Patriots organization that have different schools of thought there. I talked to one person a month ago who said he would be floored if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo," Schefter said. "[But] I just think there's going to be too much interest, and somebody's eventually going to offer enough to pry him loose."
http://www.espn.com/blog/nfl/rumors/post/_/id/31040/nfl-rumor-central-will-pats-get-an-offer-they-cant-refuse-on-garoppolo
Speaking on Mike & Mike this morning, ESPN Insider Adam Schefter suggests that despite whatever reservations the Patriots might have on moving Garoppolo, they may eventually get an offer too good to turn down.
"There are different people in the Patriots organization that have different schools of thought there. I talked to one person a month ago who said he would be floored if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo," Schefter said. "[But] I just think there's going to be too much interest, and somebody's eventually going to offer enough to pry him loose."
http://www.espn.com/blog/nfl/rumors/post/_/id/31040/nfl-rumor-central-will-pats-get-an-offer-they-cant-refuse-on-garoppolo
Fair point. And to further demonstrate BB's planning when he realized TB12 wasn't falling off a cliff on the exact timeline he drafted another potential QB in round 3 in case he needed to trade the probable heir apparent.
I think I'd file this under the "I'd do anything for you, Coach. Anything..." that Edelman said to BB after the Super Bowl.