Damn, sometimes I hate this app.
I will add though. I have doubts whether Brissett will ever be a good starting QB in this league, so if they trade Jimmy I think they need to still look for Brady's replacement down the road.
2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
I will add though. I have doubts whether Brissett will ever be a good starting QB in this league, so if they trade Jimmy I think they need to still look for Brady's replacement down the road.
Any team acquiring him has him for one year and about a million bucks. They can let him play that out and worry about franchising him end of year if he plays well or they can leverage that year to get a much more friendly long term deal than guaranteeing $50M. If he doesn't pan it, it cost them the pick(s), yes, but if you need a qb, want one this season and evaluate him highly, it's still better than using a top pick on the dredge coming out this year that you'd have to guarantee $15-$18M.
If you're right about Brissett - and I wonder what you base that on - they have to look for Brady's replacement either way. Short of Brady retiring/completely shitting the bed/suffering career ending injury next season, JG is gone at end of year. One thing they absolutely will not do is franchise him to sit on the bench behind an effective TB12 in case they need him next the year at the tune of $22M+. That's just not how this organization operates with regards to roster or salary cap.
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Neither would I. If that's his value, I'm keeping him.
If we're not getting #12 from CLE, I'd want something like both of the #2's they own this year plus a 3rd or 4th this or next year. That would allow Bill to add a lot of talent in the first 3 rounds and plenty of ammo to move around to get the guys he wants. If they can't get something like that, just walk away.
That proposed Bears deal is awful, by the way. A '18 2nd is like a '17 3rd. So a 3rd and a 4th for JG? No thanks.
Cousins is providing a timely and delicious example of how a QB can bend a team over a table playing franchise tag roulette. The QB does not have to be great -- just good, durable and self confident.
You are not coming correct with a long term offer? Fine, tag me and I'll take your $20 million. Want another taste? Tag me again, and I'll take your $24. Transition tag for 2018 you threaten? Ok, I'll take your $28. So we're up to $72 million over 3 years -- every dollar counting against the cap for that year.
It's beautiful from my perspective -- to see the franchise tag shoved down the throats of these 32 assholes this way. It can only happen with the QB position. But don't think this is lost on them.
We're not getting full value unless Jimmy G agrees to extend with his new team. And we're almost certainly not getting a first round pick if he doesn't.
You are not coming correct with a long term offer? Fine, tag me and I'll take your $20 million. Want another taste? Tag me again, and I'll take your $24. Transition tag for 2018 you threaten? Ok, I'll take your $28. So we're up to $72 million over 3 years -- every dollar counting against the cap for that year.
It's beautiful from my perspective -- to see the franchise tag shoved down the throats of these 32 assholes this way. It can only happen with the QB position. But don't think this is lost on them.
We're not getting full value unless Jimmy G agrees to extend with his new team. And we're almost certainly not getting a first round pick if he doesn't.
Cousins certainly offers a lesson, but I think there's a lot of history and dynamics involved there that might not come into play in normal situations. He doesn't seem to want to be there and they don't seem to want him, despite being pretty damn good, if not great.
I wouldn't either, but the Browns' offer is fairly close. #12 alone probably overvalues him, so we either need to send a player over or do some pick-swapping to even things out. I'd do #12 and #52 for #32 and Jimmy G. Maybe #65 instead of #52. But in that ballpark.
In terms of other teams' prior evaluations, there's a possibility of an owner pushing a team to trade for Jimmy G. As an owner, I may second guess my own guys (and some of these FOs are completely different now anyway) now that I've seen BB use a 2nd round pick on him, develop him, and then seen him look above average in real games.
Matt Bowen of ESPN put together a great in-depth ITP-style breakdown of Jimmy G's tape to discuss specific skills and areas for development.
e.g.:
He concludes Garoppolo is the real deal, and well worth trading a lot for.
e.g.:
He concludes Garoppolo is the real deal, and well worth trading a lot for.
Adam Schefter talks with Garoppolo about trade rumors, etc
http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=18731725
http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=18731725
Oh Browns...
@OptimumScouting
In 2014, #Browns coaches wanted Jimmy Garoppolo over Manziel. That Offensive Staff: #49ers HC Shanahan (then OC) + #Bears OC Loggains (QBC).
@OptimumScouting
In 2014, #Browns coaches wanted Jimmy Garoppolo over Manziel. That Offensive Staff: #49ers HC Shanahan (then OC) + #Bears OC Loggains (QBC).
It's astonishing how jinxed they've been, and sad that a full generation has no clue about respectable Browns football and a proud tradition. Heartbreaking yes -- the fumble, the drive - but they were solid and one of the centerpieces of the League for a long time. They got their team back, but it's blend of the worst years of Sullivan/Kiam for them ever since. Even though they've had some solid guys rotate through there in key positions.
Manziel is the poster boy because they should not have wanted him and certainly didn't need him. People in Cleve will pack the stands, just give them something decent to root for.
Respectable Browns Football(tm) moved to Baltimore. The current team was created in 1999, of course, and they may have inherited the name and colors and rights to talk about the history as being theirs, but none of the institutional structure that creates a club culture - like what BB talks about about the Giants, how the only people who aren't there today from when he was there are the ones who died - stayed preserved.
They need their Kraft first, before they can attract their next Belichick. Jimmy Haslam can't stay out of the news with the FBI. Romeo Crennel wasn't put in a position to succeed, for all his manifest talents.
They need their Kraft first, before they can attract their next Belichick. Jimmy Haslam can't stay out of the news with the FBI. Romeo Crennel wasn't put in a position to succeed, for all his manifest talents.
On recent Simmons podcast, Lombardi posits that a.) NFW is Garropolo worth less than the Browns #12 pick, and b.) he doesn't expect he will be traded.
I get the sense that Lombardi really loves Jimmy G.
I will venture out on a limb (as a Pats fan) and say the odds of TB12 winning another SB as a starting QB are higher than Jimmy G ever winning won as a starter.
To me that should pretty much end the debate about trade or no trade. I am not saying move Jimmy for a 4th round pick, but if they can get a first and a mid round this year plus maybe a high mid round next year the Pats should probably move him.
It is incredibly difficult to win in the NFL and want Brady and BB have done is not the norm.
Jimmy G is not Steve Young nor is he Aaron Rodgers. He is a really good QB that would prevent the Pats from becoming the Browns when Brady retires.
The odds of Jimmy leading the Pats to another 5 titles after Brady are incredibly small I would think.
That was kind of the point. It is obvious that this level of success won't last forever so it would probably be best to maximize the current window.
I don't get why Lombardi keeps proclaiming how bad it would be to trade Jimmy.
He should know from working with BB that it seems like BB will just maximize the value and do what is best for the Pats.
Edit - which could mean keeping Jimmy if they only get lowball offers.
Eh if not trading Jimmy means finding a way to sign him for another few years and have the Pats still be in the playoff hunt for the foreseeable future after Brady retires, I am good with keeping him. But not sure how they would structure such a contract
I was just giving you shit opportunistically. I generally agree with your broader post.
I was thinking about this the other day and I decided it would only be possible if there was a very firm (and relatively quick) agreement with Brady about him retiring (or leaving the Pats) after 2019 at the latest.
In that case, the offer you make to Jimmy is basically this:
We give you a three year fully guaranteed deal for 3/33M that runs 2017-2019 and replaces your current contract. In total value, this will be close to what you'd make over that window if you played out 2017 with the Pats for peanuts and then left for another team where you'd get a big contract. The disadvantage is that you will probably have to wait two extra years to become a starter, although if you can beat out a declining Brady for the job in 2018 or 2019 that is fair game. The advantage is that you get financial security now - rather than taking the risk of either getting hurt in 2017 or getting an opportunity to play and then stinking up the joint, hurting his future value as a FA - and you get to stay with a winning franchise that knows how to make use of your talents (eventually) rather than potentially going to a trainwreck franchise like the Browns or 49ers. Would Jimmy do that? Maybe.
If the cap hits were evenly distributed over this deal for JG, the total Brady+JG cap expenditures for the three years would be 25M, 33M, 33M. That sounds like a lot but its actually pretty doable, particularly given the Patriots' current cap situation for 2017 and likely ability to roll a substantial amount of cap space over into 2018.
Yeah, I agree with this line of thinking.
Also, there have been rumblings about a Brady extension / re-work, so the 2018-2019 figures could change.
How would we know? The number of red flags in Jimmy G's performance - between multiple preseasons, a few odd drives in blowouts, and 6 quarters of meaningful action - are limited to one: Kiko Alonso slammed him to the ground and damaged his AC joint. He says he's all better now. The film study I posted above shows him doing above-average NFL QB things, but also not being perfect and having some room to grow in terms of decision-making and reading the defense. He has not yet shown himself unlikely to develop the skills necessary to be a career-long starter, and may very well be on his way to having the skills of a star QB. That assessment (of a 25-year-old, mind you) ought to give a near-majority of NFL GMs raging boners for the guy.
If Jimmy were to sign a contract to remain as Brady's backup - even if it's at starter's money - then I'd say he's not the guy we think he is. To put it another way, would Brady have signed a three year contract at starter's money if he felt Bledsoe had another three years in him? I don't think so. The attractions of playing for a great coach and organization are undeniable, but being a starter trumps all. Jimmy's a two-time Super Bowl champ and nobody thinks he feels the same about those rings as Brady.
There's going to be a good team that just needs a decent QB when Jimmy's a FA. If he's any kind of competitor - and the guy many of us think he is - then he's going to want to make his own mark. It's too bad for the Pats that the timing's off by a couple of years, but that's life.
There's going to be a good team that just needs a decent QB when Jimmy's a FA. If he's any kind of competitor - and the guy many of us think he is - then he's going to want to make his own mark. It's too bad for the Pats that the timing's off by a couple of years, but that's life.
I never said he wasn't good. I just said I don't think he is a hall of fame level based on 6 quarters last year.
People say that Aaron Rodgers is the best thrower of the football ever. I don't think Jimmy G will be that.
We can't know for sure until careers are done.
I love the Pats and trust BB's judgment, but I just don't get the love for Jimmy when the Pats still have Brady.
In a perfect world, Jimmy is happy being a backup (better paid) until Brady retires after two more titles.
I just don't assign a high probability to that outcome.
But to be fair the Pats just came back against 99% plus win expectancy in the Super Bowl, so strange things have happened.
The Steve Young comparisons are inapposite. When Bill Walsh switched out of Montana, he had a hell of a lot more on Steve Young than the Pats have or ever will have on JG - a year in the USFL, two years in Tampa, several years filling in very impressively as Montana's backup.
On the other hand, when Walsh flipped the switch, Joe was 37, not 40.
I don't think any of this is easy or clear cut. You'd be a fool to value JG as Steve Young. You'd also be a fool to expect that TB can sustain his level of play until he's 45.
My wag on this is the Pats will have to be overwhelmed to pry him loose -- a middle to high first round pick +.
We'll see soon enough unless TB channels his Lonborg on the ski slopes.
On the other hand, when Walsh flipped the switch, Joe was 37, not 40.
I don't think any of this is easy or clear cut. You'd be a fool to value JG as Steve Young. You'd also be a fool to expect that TB can sustain his level of play until he's 45.
My wag on this is the Pats will have to be overwhelmed to pry him loose -- a middle to high first round pick +.
We'll see soon enough unless TB channels his Lonborg on the ski slopes.
Doug KyedVerified account@DougKyed 17h17 hours ago
Mike Lombardi says he's not shilling for Belichick when praising Garoppolo, which is exactly what someone shilling for Belichick would say.
Mike Lombardi says he's not shilling for Belichick when praising Garoppolo, which is exactly what someone shilling for Belichick would say.
Jimmy G wants to play football. He wants to be a starting NFL QB. He has said so. He's not going to sign a long term deal to be Brady's backup for SIX YEARS TOTAL (including these first 3). He'll either be dealt this Spring or franchised-then-dealt next Spring or walk away. My expectation is that he will be dealt for a first rounder, possibly including the Pats #32, sometime in the next six weeks.
Edit clarity and typos, as always
Edit clarity and typos, as always
Again with the going out on a limb.
(and we agree as far as what actions the organization should take)My point is that even with the limited amount of information available on him, the range of probable outcomes for his skill level is still centered quite high. More time spent playing does not necessarily translate into a higher expected performance level, it just narrows the error bars. You'd probably prefer Jimmy G (based on what we know of him now) over Osweiler from a year ago (based on what we knew about him from the 2015 season), even though the latter had more reps and we were more sure what kind of player he was.
What we've seen doesn't eliminate the possibility of Garoppolo being an elite NFL QB - not Rodgers, but someone capable of carrying a team to a super bowl. He doesn't have to have a high probability of being all-pro. The standard for trade partners considering big offers is, is he a better bet of being an all-pro than a high 1st-round pick in most years would be? I'd say yes, based on what we've seen.
Good point. I think that is where I differ on most people's view of Jimmy. I don't think he can carry a team to a Super Bowl.Again with the going out on a limb.
My point is that even with the limited amount of information available on him, the range of probable outcomes for his skill level is still centered quite high. More time spent playing does not necessarily translate into a higher expected performance level, it just narrows the error bars. You'd probably prefer Jimmy G (based on what we know of him now) over Osweiler from a year ago (based on what we knew about him from the 2015 season), even though the latter had more reps and we were more sure what kind of player he was.
What we've seen doesn't eliminate the possibility of Garoppolo being an elite NFL QB - not Rodgers, but someone capable of carrying a team to a super bowl. He doesn't have to have a high probability of being all-pro. The standard for trade partners considering big offers is, is he a better bet of being an all-pro than a high 1st-round pick in most years would be? I'd say yes, based on what we've seen.
He could be a Joe Flacco or 2015 Peyton. Maybe his ceiling is Big Ben where he really helps get the team to a SB.
I think carry a team is a super low probability. You are correct that the possibility hasn't been eliminated, but I would be very surprised if he ever carried a team to a SB.
That isn't a knock on Jimmy though. In the AFC, only Brady and Peyton have really carried a team to a SB in the last 15 years.
This is where I am.
He's simply not going to sign anything here if he knows Brady is here for more than 1 more season. He turns 26 next season, the guy is not going to wait to get his chance until he's 27/28 years old.
He may be here next year, but that's gonna be it outside of some surprise announcement by Brady.
This is where I am too. He is a good young QB with the potential to be really good/great, and he will want an opportunity to prove that sooner rather than later.
He has earned that right, but unfortunately he plays behind one of the greatest ever that also happens to still be better than he is.
No, he plays behind THE greatest ever! I'm ready for the honorable discharge of Jimmy G. I want the asset(s) that would come in a trade but I also really want to see him start somewhere (in the NFC). He looked really damn good in the short time he got this year and I think he really does have Top 10 QB potential.
Oh sure, NOW you want the assets. Just remember: You won't be able to trade them for LeBron or Durant
As a reminder/comparison, Aaron Rodgers sat behind FAHV-ruh for three years and that was considered long.
My prediction is that JG goes to the Browns as part of a multi-player/multi-pick deal. I think there will be one more current Patriot player going with JG, as well as possibly a NEP pick. Coming back will be multiple CLE picks.
Interestingly, using the old Jimmy Johnson Draft Value chart, which I know is only partially useful, the Cleveland #12 pick is almost exactly equal to the combined value of Cleveland's next 3 picks, which are 2/1 (33 overall), 2/20 (52), and 3/1 (65).
My recollection is that there is a new value chart out there, but the only one I could find was this one on Football Perspective and I don't know how esteemed that site is.
So I'm thinking JG + veteran (Nink?) + Pats 3rd (96 overall) for Cleveland's 2nd 1st (#12 overall) and their 6th (or for Cleveland's two 2nds and their first 3rd).
Interestingly, using the old Jimmy Johnson Draft Value chart, which I know is only partially useful, the Cleveland #12 pick is almost exactly equal to the combined value of Cleveland's next 3 picks, which are 2/1 (33 overall), 2/20 (52), and 3/1 (65).
My recollection is that there is a new value chart out there, but the only one I could find was this one on Football Perspective and I don't know how esteemed that site is.
So I'm thinking JG + veteran (Nink?) + Pats 3rd (96 overall) for Cleveland's 2nd 1st (#12 overall) and their 6th (or for Cleveland's two 2nds and their first 3rd).
That would be a big overpay. At least with Jimmy G the Niners could still dream big. The league knows what Cousins is.
I have a good friend that is a Washington fan and he would LOVE to flip Cousins for the 2nd pick. Add in a #1 next year and you can almost reverse the RG3 debacle.
Ok, let's say you're SF. Do you take Cousins/17 for #2, an '18 1st and more? Or do you trade #2 for Jimmy G?
The error bars on Cousins' performance level are also far smaller than those on Jimmy G. You may "know what Cousins is", in that sense, but what he is isn't shit. Last year he was #7 in passer rating, #4 in ANY/A (behind only Ryan, Brady and Prescott), #3 in passing yards, etc etc. He throws more interceptions than the league's truly elite QBs but there are probably a lot of people who'd rather have him than Roethlisberger, Brees or Romo right now. He'll be 29 by the time next season starts, not young but plenty young enough to give a long contract to. So while I'm a huge Jimmy G booster, let's all remember: Cousins is certainly the best QB that a team might plausibly acquire this offseason. Whether he's the best deal to be had, or the best long-term investment, is a fairer question, but a team trying to turn things around in a hurry (and certainly that's SF) ought to see him as their best savior.
I agree that Cousins is probably the best QB option. It was more the rumored deal that I thought was bad.
I felt the deal was bad mostly due to cheaper and younger options with similar upside.
I think you did a great job pointing out the contrast of best QB available vs best deal/long term investment.
I don't know. In that trade it was 3 #1s and a #2. In this one they're only netting a #1 pick next year and moving up 15 slots this year--AND they'll be going with Colt McCoy or DeShaun Watson.
Don't get me wrong, that's nice, but not quite the same. Plus, are we sure the Skins will make those picks work?
That trade (or something of similar value...IE 2 #1s) is fine with me.
Doesnt that Set the JG bar at a Number 1 and Something else "close to that high"?
Like JG, 32 and a 6th for 12, 33 and a 3rd?
BB then turn thats in 24th, 50th, 96 and 98 and a 3rd next year or something crazy.
Doesnt that Set the JG bar at a Number 1 and Something else "close to that high"?
Like JG, 32 and a 6th for 12, 33 and a 3rd?
BB then turn thats in 24th, 50th, 96 and 98 and a 3rd next year or something crazy.
In terms of established NFL performance level, Cousins would probably be one of the best prime-age QBs any team has acquired via trade since the league became much more passing oriented with the late 1970s rule changes. The competition is really thin: Drew Brees, Jim Everett, Jay Cutler, Trent Green, Drew Bledsoe?* You don't get many opportunities to trade for QBs in their prime that have established they can play at a high level. In SF's place, I would make the previously mentioned trade in a second.
*I'm not counting guys traded before establishing a high level of play at the NFL level like Elway, Favre, and Young, who obviously turned out much better.