ESPN's Mr. Belding has tweeted "Based on what I heard from people inside Patriots at SB and those familiar with their approach, I'm not expecting (Jimmy Garropolo) to be traded."
2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
It's no more or less valuable than this:
"There are different people in the Patriots organization that have different schools of thought there. I talked to one person a month ago who said he would be floored if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo," Schefter said. "[But] I just think there's going to be too much interest, and somebody's eventually going to offer enough to pry him loose."
(emphasis added). It's all spit-balling.
"There are different people in the Patriots organization that have different schools of thought there. I talked to one person a month ago who said he would be floored if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo," Schefter said. "[But] I just think there's going to be too much interest, and somebody's eventually going to offer enough to pry him loose."
(emphasis added). It's all spit-balling.
Regardless of how this turns out, it's been funny. Here, a Cleveland reporter twists himself into knots
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/02/pretend_jimmy_garoppolo_doesnt.html
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/02/pretend_jimmy_garoppolo_doesnt.html
If Chicago offers #3 and #35, is he confident the Pats don't deal him? I'll hang up and listen, Ed.
Seriously, if a few teams see him as 'the guy' and pony up primo picks he's gone.
Seriously, if a few teams see him as 'the guy' and pony up primo picks he's gone.
As he should be.
3 and 35 could be a couple of impact players within a year or two. Or be 3 or 4 players, if BB trades down.
Anything that reinforces the chances of another TB12 Super Bowl appearance in the next few years only serves to cement BB's legacy further.
Jacoby Brissett, 2021!
Or rather: 2nd round pick in 2017, 2021!
I will be surprised if the Patriots get a first-round pick for Garoppolo. Three years ago, no one thought he was worth a first - he was chosen in the late second (pick 62). Now he is three years older and only has one year left on his rookie deal. Sure, he looked great in three halves earlier this year, but that's a small sample size and shouldn't move anyone off their draft evaluation significantly. Why is he worth significantly more now than he was three years ago even though his contract is less favorable?
I get the chatter that this QB draft class is weak, but then why not find a stopgap this year and try again in the 2018 draft? It just doesn't make any sense to me - and I like Garoppolo.
I get the chatter that this QB draft class is weak, but then why not find a stopgap this year and try again in the 2018 draft? It just doesn't make any sense to me - and I like Garoppolo.
If they don't get a 1st they need to keep him. Insurance and a future 3rd round comp is worth more than a 2nd or 3rd this year imo.
All it takes is one team to pay a ransom. But let's face it -- if JG were on another team and there was talk of a ransom based on six quarters of impressive play in games that meant something, we would be greatly amused. I don't want him dealt. He could be very good. But on paper and game film and in the stat book Steve Young he's not.
Nah. Part of the reason there's this level of interest is that the quarterbacks in this draft aren't well-regarded. Go for a vet backup, and hope Brissett beats that guy out during the year
I can't easily see the scenario that it makes economic sense for both JG and the Pats where he re-ups on a long-term deal assuming Brady plays 2-3-4-5 more years. They're not going to carry $40MM for 2 QBs and JG is going to want his own team.
It was more a joke on how unpredictable BB is in drafting. No one saw the Jimmy G pick coming either.
A good point. Do the GMs potentially involved here have a two or three year timeline to do that though?
You don't think his performance and the overall command of the offense he displayed in those three halves do anything to alleviate some of the main criticisms people had of him coming out of college (footwork, his ability to grasp an NFL offense, adapting to taking snaps under center, poor reaction to pressure)? Honestly, that half against the Dolphins was one of the most impressive displays of quarterbacking the Patriots had this season, Brady included. I know it's a small sample size, but I believe it absolutely could be enough for a team to significantly overhaul their impressions of Jimmy, especially considering he had some good games in the preseason as well.
The fact that the Patriots felt absolutely 100% confident in him being the starter for the first 4 games of the season, not bringing in a veteran at any point, with Belichick even using the word "seamless" when describing the transition from Brady to Jimmy, are also indications that they believe he's at a point in his development where they'd be comfortable having him as the starter for a significant period of time. I don't think there were any "let's praise the kid to up his trade value in the offseason" considerations at play there.
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Given that the Patriots could still be playoff threats with Garoppolo replacing an injured Brady I agree with M.A.T. that trading him for less than a high pick isn't worth it.
If he ended up playing well for a few games next year could they still do the franchise tag/trade that they did with Cassell? Or have the rules changed?
If he ended up playing well for a few games next year could they still do the franchise tag/trade that they did with Cassell? Or have the rules changed?
The new ones in SF and LA, certainly. A QB move THIS offseason in LA is practically impossible. That would leave Chi and Cleve.
Um...because he was very good in a college program where he basically called his own plays, showed enough to get drafted pretty high anyway, and then showed the capability to run one of the league's most complicated systems DESPITE his previous lack of experience in an offensive system, then looked very comfortable, sharp and productive in regular season NFL action? And, oh yeah, served his apprenticeship under Bill Belichick and at the knee of Tom Brady for three years, so what he's been asked to do, and had expected of him and lived up to has been a rather high standard? Besides THAT stuff, you mean?
I think it does something to alleviate some of those criticisms (and one you didn't list, concern over the level of competition he faced in college). But I have a hard time believing that it moves the needle so far in the other direction that it not only balances out three fewer years of control, it makes him drastically more valuable now. And we also have to consider that the reality that he couldn't make it two games before getting hurt might be a flag to teams.
His preseason was kind of spotty, honestly, at least this year. His best preseason year was probably his rookie year. And of course, preseason. He was great against Miami, and very good against Arizona.
They didn't bring in a vet when Cassel was the backup either, or Hoyer, or Mallet. I don't think they're terribly keen on the kind of value to be hit in the free agent market for backup quarterbacks.
I will not be surprised at all if they get a first round pick. I mean, why wouldn't Houston trade a late 1st round pick to get a young QB with his potential? Their biggest issue is at QB and he has a low salary while their cap is clogged by Osweiler. Then, if it works out, the Osweiler money is re-allocated to Jimmy.
Or there's a team like Cleveland that has the #12 pick in addition to the top pick. If you like Jimmy, you're adding the top player in the draft and a potential franchise QB. That would be a great day.
If Jimmy gets traded, I think the Pats get a first rounder or a bevy of 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2017-2018.
Or there's a team like Cleveland that has the #12 pick in addition to the top pick. If you like Jimmy, you're adding the top player in the draft and a potential franchise QB. That would be a great day.
If Jimmy gets traded, I think the Pats get a first rounder or a bevy of 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2017-2018.
I think the reports out of SF, CLE and CHI, while requiring grains of salt and all that, do seem to indicate a serious and high level of interest in Jimmy G. I'd be pretty surprised if he's not dealt for a #1, although a high first rounder would likely mean we swap the #32 overall as part of the deal. I think the place I've seen the most skepticism about the Pats landing a first rounder for JG is here at SOSH.
OK, but all this was true three years ago (and is true for a lot of guys), when he was only worth #62.
He looked great ... in a tiny sample.
This means nothing to me - it also applied to Mallett, Hoyer, Cassel, Matt Gutierrez, Rohan Davey, not to mention guys in analogous situations like Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, Matt Flynn, and Scott Tolzien.
Houston does kind of make sense, because O'Brien runs a similar system and because of the salary cap situation you mention. I'm dubious that the Texans will go back to that well, however, so soon after the Osweiler disaster. Could you imagine if they give that huge contract to Brock and he flops, and then they trade a first for Jimmy and he flops? Yikes.
Yeah, but why trade for Jimmy when you can draft one of the top guys in the draft and have five years of control instead of just one? Or if you don't like any of this year's class, why not ride with RGIII / Kessler for another year and take another crack in 2018? You're going to suck this year anyway; what does Jimmy give you that's worth #12?
Look at the Bears for a moment. They're in a spot where they might think they can improve next season, to the point where their 2018 first-rounder won't be a top three pick. Chicago offering a second (and-or a third) this year and a 1 in 2018 might be the best deal of all. 2017 is a deep draft, we've been told, and we know that NE likes depth in the draft (and Kraft never used to like paying first-round prices).
A 2018 first rounder seems a more likely scenario outside of getting anything better than Cleveland's pick at 12 ... and that's not even a certainty
A 2018 first rounder seems a more likely scenario outside of getting anything better than Cleveland's pick at 12 ... and that's not even a certainty
Teams are under such pressure to win, even the Browns, that I think rational thinking kind of goes away. I mean, why would the Rams give up all that for Goff? Or the Vikings for Bradford? We're in February so the pressure isn't really on yet but come April that noose tightens and teams start to panic a bit.
Jimmy is certainly far from a sure thing but he did look really good in his 1.5 games. Do we really think he would have nosedived at some point this year if Brady hadn't come back? Plus, he's handsome, which certainly counts for something.
No matter where you land on this issue, one thing is important to keep in mind, and I'm not joking:
A lot of NFL teams are pretty dumb and reactive. I don't necessarily think it would be either dumb OR reactive to trade a 1st rounder for Jimmy G and his six quarters of excellent performance, but I do think it's noteworthy, how poorly so many teams strategize in terms draft, free agency, fan reaction, etc...
Edit fuck you autocorrect. Fuck. You. Also, clarification.
A lot of NFL teams are pretty dumb and reactive. I don't necessarily think it would be either dumb OR reactive to trade a 1st rounder for Jimmy G and his six quarters of excellent performance, but I do think it's noteworthy, how poorly so many teams strategize in terms draft, free agency, fan reaction, etc...
Edit fuck you autocorrect. Fuck. You. Also, clarification.
Yeah, a 2018 first would make more sense (or even like a 2018 conditional that's a 2nd if he doesn't start 10 games or a first if he does). I think something like two twos or a two and a three is more likely. FWIW, Garoppolo probably played his best preseason game this year against the Bears and the Pats did joint practices with them, so they have more information than most teams (for better or worse).
Bradford was a panic trade, for sure, but under unusual circumstances. When I go around the league and try to put myself in other teams' shoes, I have a hard time making the case for the value here trading a first for Garoppolo. You can't rule out someone being kinda dumb, but you can't count on it, either, and I think teams might be especially leery of looking dumb trading with Belichick.
VERY handsome.
Then Jimmy G gets hurt in Game 3 for 6-8 weeks leading to a 6-10 season and a top 8 pick in 2018 for the Patriots.
Queue the Embedded Patriot posts!
I, too, see a 2018 first as a more likely possibility than CLE's #12. With that said, if Cleveland likes JG, what's stopping them from trading down from 12, picking up an extra pick or 2 and then swapping that pick to NE?
A lot of the talk has been about 1 (or 2) and a 4. But wouldn't that 4 get Goodell'd if it came this year, assuming it is higher in the round than Seattle's?
Unless the NEP are somehow down on JG, getting a 2018 1st makes no sense...wait until next year to trade him if you have to...if Brady gets hurt in 2017 then JG gets to play (and perhaps save the season and enhance his value). If not, then his value diminishes a bit, but it seems as if the risk / reward is worth taking.
Then it only makes sense if it is in the Houston range. I could be talked into the Brown's two second round picks and something next year that could escalate from 4->2 depending on games started.
Next year his value doesn't diminish a bit. It could very well evaporate if he sits on the bench, considering his contract will run out.
This is mainly in response to Super Nomario's points about what has changed to improve other teams' impression/valuation of Jimmy G:
We know that this league is a QB league.
We also know that drafting a QB is a crapshoot. For every Matt Ryan (drafted #3 overall), there are multiple Goffs, Bartles, etc -- high picks who crapped out.
For every high pick that crapped out, there are almost an equal number of later picks (2nd round or later) who have proven to be quality: Prescott, Carr, Wilson, etc.
So if I'm a team without a quality QB, and there are a lot of teams in that boat, and I look at what my options are for upgrading that position, I am comparing Jimmy G to a weak batch of draft picks, and a mediocre batch of veterans. In that comparison, Jimmy G looks pretty good. 6 quarters is a small sample size, for sure, but its more than any college kids have on their resumes.
Maybe the opportunity cost of JG is higher, but if he works out, no one will be concerned about that.
We know that this league is a QB league.
We also know that drafting a QB is a crapshoot. For every Matt Ryan (drafted #3 overall), there are multiple Goffs, Bartles, etc -- high picks who crapped out.
For every high pick that crapped out, there are almost an equal number of later picks (2nd round or later) who have proven to be quality: Prescott, Carr, Wilson, etc.
So if I'm a team without a quality QB, and there are a lot of teams in that boat, and I look at what my options are for upgrading that position, I am comparing Jimmy G to a weak batch of draft picks, and a mediocre batch of veterans. In that comparison, Jimmy G looks pretty good. 6 quarters is a small sample size, for sure, but its more than any college kids have on their resumes.
Maybe the opportunity cost of JG is higher, but if he works out, no one will be concerned about that.
The other element here is that some of these teams may just wait us out -- by us, I mean teams like the NEP and Washington if it wishes to move Cousins.
The Bears seem determined to move on, but with Cleveland, who knows? I can definitely see both the Rams and 49ers, with new HCs and new GMs, marking time, and it's really difficult to see how the Rams throw the towel in on Goff after one year.
All it takes is one, ideally two, but we may be talking about two max (Houston, like LA, has problems, notably problems with money already sunk in the position.) NYJ and Bills are non-starters as trade partners, I think, for a guy who may stick for 10 years, and torture you twice a year if he does.
The Bears seem determined to move on, but with Cleveland, who knows? I can definitely see both the Rams and 49ers, with new HCs and new GMs, marking time, and it's really difficult to see how the Rams throw the towel in on Goff after one year.
All it takes is one, ideally two, but we may be talking about two max (Houston, like LA, has problems, notably problems with money already sunk in the position.) NYJ and Bills are non-starters as trade partners, I think, for a guy who may stick for 10 years, and torture you twice a year if he does.
You can't "wait us out" if there are multiple suitors, wherein the first one to strike a deal with Belichick wins the kewpie doll (really, he's so handsome). Once Cousins signs somewhere, I think we see Jimmy's market form and the rumors start to fly and we see action - or final confirmation of no trade - within a week or so. But I wouldn't rule out seeing a deal even before FA starts, just because teams get desperate and new (or in-the-hot-seat) GMs want to make a splash.
This is my issue, essentially. For Garoppolo, you're threading the needle where he's a long-term option (as opposed to more established players Cutler, Romo, Taylor, etc.), but figures to be more ready than the rookies. How many teams need a QB of the future but also need to win now? Bottom-dwellers like CLE, SF, JAX, can wait - they can draft a rookie, or plug in a stop-gap and go for a 2018 rookie. Teams with aging starters (NYG, Chargers, ARI, NO, KC, PIT) would almost certainly prefer a rookie to develop behind the starter. Rams, HOU, PHI, DEN just invested heavily in QB, and it's hard to imagine the Patriots trading to a division rival. Most of the other teams are set? Who's left? Chicago? I'm just having trouble seeing a fit.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/
This PFF article is a week old, but didn't see it referenced above. It offers a mostly reasoned/sober evaluation of reasonable offers that might be expected from the leading suitors for Garropolo, starting with the contention that his value is roughly that of a late first round pick:
BROWNS:
Pats receive the 12th pick in 2017 for Jimmy G and #32, or...
Pats receive the 50th (mid second round) pick in 2017 and a Browns second-rounder in 2018 for Jimmy G and a 2018 third rounder.
NINERS:
Pats receive Niners 2nd, 4th and 5th picks in 2017 for Garropolo
BEARS:
Pats receive a 2017 4th and a 2018 2nd for Garropolo.
PFF likes the chances of the Bears scenario best, although that one feels way too light to me for the Pats not to hang onto Garropolo and just collect a comp pick if he leaves after 2017. That hypothetical Bears offer falls way short of the Browns and Niners scenarios, so I can't figure out if it's missing something,
This PFF article is a week old, but didn't see it referenced above. It offers a mostly reasoned/sober evaluation of reasonable offers that might be expected from the leading suitors for Garropolo, starting with the contention that his value is roughly that of a late first round pick:
BROWNS:
Pats receive the 12th pick in 2017 for Jimmy G and #32, or...
Pats receive the 50th (mid second round) pick in 2017 and a Browns second-rounder in 2018 for Jimmy G and a 2018 third rounder.
NINERS:
Pats receive Niners 2nd, 4th and 5th picks in 2017 for Garropolo
BEARS:
Pats receive a 2017 4th and a 2018 2nd for Garropolo.
PFF likes the chances of the Bears scenario best, although that one feels way too light to me for the Pats not to hang onto Garropolo and just collect a comp pick if he leaves after 2017. That hypothetical Bears offer falls way short of the Browns and Niners scenarios, so I can't figure out if it's missing something,
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The Bears one doesn't make sense since they would fall from the Bears slot to Seattle's slot in the 4th this year
Agreed, those are bad deals, none of which I can see the Patriots doing. It's not as if the Patriots do not get a good pick if they let Jimmy leave after next season. I could see Patriots doing Jimmy G and a late round pick for Browns #12, but there is plenty of depth on the defensive side and swapping first rounders plus jimmy is never happening
There's great value in keeping Jimmy, even if it's only for 2017. Definitely would need a first to give that up, IMO.
Plus $50M or so in guarantees...