2016 Miami Dolphins: Amazing Gase
- Thread starter sodenj5
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Right now Oakland is 1/2 game behind from the 1 seed and they play Houston tonight.
I wouldn't anticipate a huge dropoff from any of the AFC West teams or New England running away with the 1 seed. I'm guessing New England runs their starters out there in Week 17.
Denver plays KC next week, which is a net win for Miami regardless of the outcome.
Handle SF and Miami is in a tie for a wild card spot next week.
Oakland still has road games at Denver, SD, and KC, plus home games vs. Carolina, Buffalo, Indy, and tonight's game. I will be surprised if they do any better than 5-2, which would give them 4 losses.
KC has both Denver games left, @ Atlanta, @ SD, vs. Oakland, and vs. Tennessee. They already have 3 losses. Again, I would be surprised if they lose only 1 or 2 more games. Their best case is 11-5 IMO.
Denver has the easiest schedule of the three, but still has both KC games, @ Tennessee, vs. NE. They have the best chance to get to 12 or even 13 wins. But if the Pats win there in week 15 then it will be highly likely the Pats have the 1 seed wrapped up prior to week 17.
I'm actually rooting for you guys, I like Gase, I would like to see another AFC East team make the playoffs. It's going to take at least 10 wins, maybe 11, but you can get there.
Thanks. I still think Miami needs to do whatever it has to do to get everyone as healthy as possible for Baltimore. Having head to head victories against both Baltimore and Pittsburgh would be huge.
I know you can't overlook any opponent, but if there's ever a game where I would feel decent with Miami starting 3 backups on the O-Line, it's this week. San Fran has the 31st ranked run defense according to DVOA. Rest Pouncey, Tunsil, and Albert. Give Landry a series or two off, he's banged up. Give Suh and Wake a series or two off. Scratch and claw out a W however possible. Just win and gear up for a big game at Baltimore.
Dolphins are a dangerous team that scares any Pats fan and I suspect that 10-6 will be their final record, although it will probably come up a bit short against 11-5 KC and Oakland for wild cards.
I assume you mean from a conference perspective because if Miami finishes tied with the loser of the Baltimore/Pittsburgh race, they're not going to the playoffs.
Agreed. At this point, any game against an AFC opponent is big for Miami. Having head to head victories against the other teams that are in the hunt is gravy and sort of locks them into that next-in-line playoff position.
If I had to pick a team that's going to skid down the stretch and open the window for Miami, it's KC. @Denver, @Atlanta, vs Oakland is a very tough three game stretch for them coming up.
All of this is irrelevant if Miami doesn't keep winning. Beat SF. End of story.
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The game tonight takes on some surprising significance. Finally a Monday night game I'm excited to watch for something other than fantasy purposes. If Houston can pull out a win, suddenly you have 3 AFC West teams vulnerable to Miami passing them down the stretch rather than just 2. Miami is already guaranteed an opportunity to gain a game on either Den or KC next week, but an Oak loss tonight guarantees Miami at least two more opportunities (three if you count the 2nd Den/KC matchup) to tie or move ahead of whichever team(s) succumb to attrition in the West.
If Miami takes care of business against the 3 teams it absolutely should handle (SF, Bal, NYJ), they just need 1 out of 3 of the other games to get to 10. Based on a glance at the rest of the schedule among conference contenders, I think 10 does it.* All that said, I'm glad the Dolphin coaches aren't allowing the players to look beyond next week like we are. And frankly, we should all know better. But what fun is that?
*The Baltimore game is clearly a must-win in this scenario.
If Miami takes care of business against the 3 teams it absolutely should handle (SF, Bal, NYJ), they just need 1 out of 3 of the other games to get to 10. Based on a glance at the rest of the schedule among conference contenders, I think 10 does it.* All that said, I'm glad the Dolphin coaches aren't allowing the players to look beyond next week like we are. And frankly, we should all know better. But what fun is that?
*The Baltimore game is clearly a must-win in this scenario.
Baltimore also held Zeke Elliott and the Cowboys stud-filled offensive line to under 100 yards. They might not be great, but they're pretty damn good at stopping the run and Miami is playing them on the road. If Miami is still missing Albert and/or Tunsil and/or Pouncey, be prepared for another ugly slogfest like we just witnessed. I think this game, @Buffalo, and NE in Week 17 are the three remaining games that worry me the most.
Go Texans.
The game @ BUF is the toughest remaining on the schedule for sure. House of horrors, in the dead of winter. I'd be shocked if they win that game.
I'm hoping they will be able to rest Pouncey, Albert and Tunsil for the 49ers game and head to Baltimore with a healthy O line.
I get a little uneasy with folks talking about hoping the majority of the offensive line sits out until after the San Fran game. I get it, but lest we forget how this team played vs. the Tennessees, Cincinnatis, and Clevelands of the world prior to that unit's return to full strength (and we should probably include St. Louis for 56 minutes). There is little margin for error for Miami in the remainder of their schedule, especially if they hope to avoid a must-sweep scenario versus Buffalo and NE the last two weeks of the season.
We could debate whether or not they should be in all hands on deck/win at all costs mode already, but a hiccup vs. the Niners means they'd have to go 4 - 1 down the stretch with a schedule whose most favorable matchup is arguably a December prime time road game vs. an historically difficult divisional nemesis, and even that wouldn't guarantee a playoff spot.
We could debate whether or not they should be in all hands on deck/win at all costs mode already, but a hiccup vs. the Niners means they'd have to go 4 - 1 down the stretch with a schedule whose most favorable matchup is arguably a December prime time road game vs. an historically difficult divisional nemesis, and even that wouldn't guarantee a playoff spot.
Ian Rapoport hasn't been doing well recently on injury news though. Take solace in the fact that his errors usually have been on the report being wrong for claiming a more severe injury than actually occurred.
But you never know.
But you never know.
Saw a great stat on Twitter this morning. In 2016, no QB has more games with a 50+ yard completion than Ryan Tannehill. He has 6 such games this year.
IMO, Miami should be able to handle SF with their reserves. SF is very bad at defending the run. Control the clock and the game. Pound the ball with Ajayi. It doesn't need to be a blowout to be a win. Steen and Urbik are decent run blockers. According to PFF, Albert is one of the worst run-blocking tackles in the league this year, which I don't fully buy.
I don't think Pouncey and Albert are going to be ready to go regardless, and I would hold Tunsil out or make him an emergency backup just in case. Miami will absolutely need these guys against Baltimore. Why risk further injury or a setback in a game they don't absolutely need and should still win?
Also, Dion Jordan is returning to practice today. Is it crazy to think that with all the good that Gase and Joseph have done this year that they might actually find a way to use Jordan effectively? Probably.
IMO, Miami should be able to handle SF with their reserves. SF is very bad at defending the run. Control the clock and the game. Pound the ball with Ajayi. It doesn't need to be a blowout to be a win. Steen and Urbik are decent run blockers. According to PFF, Albert is one of the worst run-blocking tackles in the league this year, which I don't fully buy.
I don't think Pouncey and Albert are going to be ready to go regardless, and I would hold Tunsil out or make him an emergency backup just in case. Miami will absolutely need these guys against Baltimore. Why risk further injury or a setback in a game they don't absolutely need and should still win?
Also, Dion Jordan is returning to practice today. Is it crazy to think that with all the good that Gase and Joseph have done this year that they might actually find a way to use Jordan effectively? Probably.
My thoughts are more in line with dwaimw. Considering the injuries, I don't consider any game a "gimme". Thankfully, it looks as though Tunsil's going to play tomorrow.
My biggest concern in this game is Kaepernick. I know he's not a great QB, but he's mobile, and he's proven he's capable of making big plays down the field. Miami's defensive line feasts on QB that stay in the pocket, while more athletic QB (Tyrod and Mariota) have posed problems.
Albert was recently quoted as saying that once he can grab again, he'll play. Just for fun, I google'd "dislocated wrist recovery time", and came up with this:
"Treatment for a dislocated wrist. Carpal dislocations usually require surgical treatment by a specialist wrist and hand surgeon. He or she will put the bones back in place and repair any ligament and soft tissue damage. The wrist is then immobilized in a cast for 8 weeks to allow time for the injury to heal."
How sure are we that he's playing again this season?
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Tunsil out today. Oh boy.
They are either lucky that three o linemen are hurt when they are playing two of the worst teams in the league or....
They are either lucky that three o linemen are hurt when they are playing two of the worst teams in the league or....
WWWWWW
It's wasn't pretty. The run game couldn't get going. Kapernick gashed the defense for big runs at critical times. But a W is a W is a W.
Tannehill made some fantastic throws this game. Hopefully Parker is able to play next week. The guy is so good when he's right and Tannehill trusts him to put the ball up and let him go get it. Fingers crossed for Pouncey and Tunsil back next week. Albert might still be a no-go. We'll see.
It's wasn't pretty. The run game couldn't get going. Kapernick gashed the defense for big runs at critical times. But a W is a W is a W.
Tannehill made some fantastic throws this game. Hopefully Parker is able to play next week. The guy is so good when he's right and Tannehill trusts him to put the ball up and let him go get it. Fingers crossed for Pouncey and Tunsil back next week. Albert might still be a no-go. We'll see.
Still trying to shake the sense of dread that descended over me for the last 10 minutes of that game, so I'll just avoid commenting about anything other than 7 - 4. Which leads to.....
.....now I can allow myself to think about tonight's game. Who to root for? KC is already at 5 wins in the conference, so we don't want them getting to 6. Plus, when they play again Week 17, it'll be the Chiefs with home field. By my math, that = Go Denver!
.....now I can allow myself to think about tonight's game. Who to root for? KC is already at 5 wins in the conference, so we don't want them getting to 6. Plus, when they play again Week 17, it'll be the Chiefs with home field. By my math, that = Go Denver!
IMO, definitely root for Denver. KC has a brutal stretch coming up. I think they're most likely to drop a game or two in the next three.
Mission accomplished in terms of winning without Albert, Tunsil, and Pouncey. I think if Miami is playing Baltimore this week instead of next week, Tunsil plays. They made the right call keeping him out. Let him rest up because there's a decent chance he plays LT next week in Baltimore.
Big game for Miami next week. We've talked about it for about two weeks now. Saw on twitter, Parker's injury looks to be minor. Decent chance he plays against Baltimore. The offense looks so much better when he is out there at 100%.
I agree with several points already made:
1) F-ck style points; just win. With Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey ... and then Parker, Drake out, Miami got the job done. Onto Baltimore.
2) I also think that Tunsil would have given it a go this week vs. the Ravens. Instead, the coaching staff opted to be cautious and give him another week to rest up, confident they could still get the win vs the (now) 1-10 49ers in Miami.
3) Parker needs to play next week. Suck it up, kid!
The Ravens are going to be tough match-up on the road. I'm most concerned with their pass rush, with covering Steve Smith being a close second. I know there will be a lot of Wallace talk leading up to Sunday, but Smith's the type of shifty wide-out Miami's struggled bottling up in the past. The good news? Flacco hasn't been very good this year. He stays in the pocket, takes sacks, and has just 11 TD with 10 interceptions.
1) F-ck style points; just win. With Albert, Tunsil, Pouncey ... and then Parker, Drake out, Miami got the job done. Onto Baltimore.
2) I also think that Tunsil would have given it a go this week vs. the Ravens. Instead, the coaching staff opted to be cautious and give him another week to rest up, confident they could still get the win vs the (now) 1-10 49ers in Miami.
3) Parker needs to play next week. Suck it up, kid!
The Ravens are going to be tough match-up on the road. I'm most concerned with their pass rush, with covering Steve Smith being a close second. I know there will be a lot of Wallace talk leading up to Sunday, but Smith's the type of shifty wide-out Miami's struggled bottling up in the past. The good news? Flacco hasn't been very good this year. He stays in the pocket, takes sacks, and has just 11 TD with 10 interceptions.
Also in other AFC news, basically every other team won, so Miami gets no added breathing room.
This game vs Baltimore is as close as we're going to get to a playoff game in the regular season. Huge playoff implications. Baltimore trailing Miami by a game. Baltimore is an experienced, seasoned veteran team that is well coached and solid in all three phases. This will be a good litmus test for Miami. SD and Buffalo were big wins for Miami, but they were far out of the playoff picture then. It will be interesting to see how they respond to this game.
This game vs Baltimore is as close as we're going to get to a playoff game in the regular season. Huge playoff implications. Baltimore trailing Miami by a game. Baltimore is an experienced, seasoned veteran team that is well coached and solid in all three phases. This will be a good litmus test for Miami. SD and Buffalo were big wins for Miami, but they were far out of the playoff picture then. It will be interesting to see how they respond to this game.
As of this morning, thanks to a doinked FG, Miami would be the 6th and final seed in the playoffs. If they don't beat Baltimore or Buffalo, that will be pretty meaningless, but nevertheless, Miami is relevant in December for the first time in a long time. Also, if Miami loses this week's game, that would mean they pretty much MUST win in Buffalo, which could have disaster written all over it. Let's all agree to root for the Raiders this week against the Bills.
Looking ahead to Baltimore, they have the 30th ranked offense in terms of DVOA (28th in passing offense and 27th in rushing offense) but the 4th best defense (#1 against the run) and the 8th best special teams. This game might end up looking a lot like the Rams game. A slogfest that might have to be won in the 4th quarter. Ryan Tannehill may have to win this game for Miami.
Everyone keep your fingers crossed for a return of at least Tunsil and hopefully Parker. If Pouncey comes back, awesome. I think Albert is doubtful for this week. All hands on deck for this one.
Looking ahead to Baltimore, they have the 30th ranked offense in terms of DVOA (28th in passing offense and 27th in rushing offense) but the 4th best defense (#1 against the run) and the 8th best special teams. This game might end up looking a lot like the Rams game. A slogfest that might have to be won in the 4th quarter. Ryan Tannehill may have to win this game for Miami.
Everyone keep your fingers crossed for a return of at least Tunsil and hopefully Parker. If Pouncey comes back, awesome. I think Albert is doubtful for this week. All hands on deck for this one.
Ryan Tannehill was PFF's 7th best player in the league yesterday.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-10-best-players-from-sundays-week-12-nfl-action/
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-10-best-players-from-sundays-week-12-nfl-action/
Early media speculation is that both Tunsil and Albert will play Sunday, with Pouncey being the least likely. I think Parker will be a full go. Haven't seen any mention of Howard yet.
On a separate note, I have a question: Was Kiki Alonso's contract situation ever confirmed? I remembered reading about a contract extension in several places; one can be found here:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/sfl-dolphins-restructure-byron-maxwell-and-kiko-alonsos-contract-after-trade-20160310-story.html
"Alonso, who was set to earn just under a million dollars for this season, agreed to a one-year extension that actually gives him a raise. The often-injured linebacker, who has missed the bulk of the last two seasons because of knee injuries, signed a two-year deal that is worth $2.8 million."
That, of course, would make him a FA after next season, not this season. I hope that's the case.
I could see the Fins' FO wanting to keep him in Miami longer than that. He's turned into a really nice addition on defense.
There was just recently a story about the Philly trade and they pointed out that Kiko will be a RFA at the end of the year, not a UFA, because he was injured training outside of football. He would carry a second round tender, so Miami could hypothetically have him on the cheap again next year, but I think they try and lock him up if he makes it through this season unscathed health wise.
The step up in play from Kiko this year, who looks like he's finally at 100% after battling injuries the last two years, over the corpses of Kia Misi and Kelvin Sheppard from last year is gigantic. That might be the single largest area of improvement from 2015 to 2016 on this team.
The step up in play from Kiko this year, who looks like he's finally at 100% after battling injuries the last two years, over the corpses of Kia Misi and Kelvin Sheppard from last year is gigantic. That might be the single largest area of improvement from 2015 to 2016 on this team.
Over the Cap still has him under his rookie deal with no extension for 2017. It's not the be-all, end-all, but they are pretty good.
The Ravens are pretty damn high on the unlikeable franchise list. The way they closed out last week's game is just another prime example. Is it illegal? Not technically. Is it kind of cheesey, bordering on cheap? Probably.
Franchises that look to exploit every loophole and technicality rub me the wrong way. Just win by winning and being the better team. Don't use a technicality that basically eliminates the other team from the final play of the game.
Franchises that look to exploit every loophole and technicality rub me the wrong way. Just win by winning and being the better team. Don't use a technicality that basically eliminates the other team from the final play of the game.
Well as I am sure you are aware it was the Ravens bitching about the Pats formations in the playoffs two years ago
Which is why the Ravens are even more annoying.
They complain the loudest about the stuff they pull themselves.
They complain the loudest about the stuff they pull themselves.
Exactly. They want to cry foul when something doesn't go their way, but then they pull that play out of the book, something that the players said they practice every week. They also attempted to do the exact same thing to close out the Super Bowl, but the punter was pushed out of bounds with a few seconds left on the clock. This one was "better executed" if you can call it that, leaving the Bengals with no time left and ending the game.
So the Ravens run defense isn't just good, it's on pace to be historically good.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2016/week-12-dvoa-ratings
What will be interesting to see is if they stack the box to stop Ajayi. Tannehill has come alive the last few weeks and is hitting big plays down the field when teams have been loading up the box. Will Baltimore employ a more balanced defense and trust their guys to stop the run and limit the potential for the big throw from Tannehill? I think this is a game where they're going to have to grind it out on the ground, even if it's unsuccessful, if only to set up the big play action eventually.
I think this is going to be basically a carbon copy of the Rams game. I'm not worried about Miami's D stopping the Ravens offense. I'm concerned with Miami's ability to move the ball on a very good defense on the road.
It's actually every year. http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Intentional-Safety-Was-Even-Better-Than-Super-Bowl-Trick--In-Execution/5a46ceb1-1839-48cb-b809-08368f66b5f1.
Key to the game will be if Jimmy Smith plays. Ravens D is pretty good without him but have little CB depth. I think they have potential to be special if he plays at high level.
We will probably find out today which of the unicorns is playing this week. Probably not Pouncey. Hopefully Parker plays and is healthy.
The D has to hold them to 20 points or less me thinks.
Hey, it's fun having meaningful football to talk about in DECEMBER!
The D has to hold them to 20 points or less me thinks.
Hey, it's fun having meaningful football to talk about in DECEMBER!
I think Parker is a major key, maybe more than Pouncey or Albert. The offense looks so different when he's out there at 100%. He's been flashing his speed and deep ball ability the last few weeks and Tannehill has a lot of faith in him. I would hate to see him out there at 80% again and basically a decoy.
My guess is Tunsil and Albert are in, Parker plays, but how good he'll be remains to be seen. Pouncey is out.
FiveThirtyEight confirming what we all knew: Miami's game this week is very important. Miami winning would give their playoff chances a 34% point swing.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dolphins-ravens-is-the-biggest-game-of-week-13/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dolphins-ravens-is-the-biggest-game-of-week-13/
The Ravens are getting healthy at the right time; Jimmy Smith was back at practice today. This game's setting up to be a real good one. For the first time in ... ever? ... I believe this Miami team is as tough, if not tougher than this Ravens team. (The '08 team was close.)
At this point, I'd be mildly surprised if Tunsil and Albert don't play. I'm also with you, Sod'. If Parker can't go, that's a huge blow. The Fins' offense doesn't appear to be nearly the same without him.
At this point, I'd be mildly surprised if Tunsil and Albert don't play. I'm also with you, Sod'. If Parker can't go, that's a huge blow. The Fins' offense doesn't appear to be nearly the same without him.
Gase also said there's definitely the possibility of Xavien Howard coming back this week. I think Lippett still gets the start over Howard, but it's good to have depth back there. I guess the downside of having guys that are big press corners is you can't easily slide on of them into the slot to get your best 3 corners on the field at the same time. Bobby McCain is pretty much their slot guy.
Maxwell is currently PFF's 18th best corner and Lippett is 30th. I don't think Miami could have hoped for much better out of those two this year.
Bacarri Rambo has been a very good, quiet addition by Miami mid-season once Jones went down. He and IAQ have been doing a good job back there.
Sounds like PArker had a good day, practiced and team is more optimistic he can play. Maybe posturing, but I thought he had no chance on Thursday
Edit: he didn't practice but he ran and used the bike and isn't ruled out yet
Edit: he didn't practice but he ran and used the bike and isn't ruled out yet
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Schefter just tweeted that Parker is likely out today. Huge bummer
Edit: Alive! Parker will be active today. When was last time Schefter was wrong? and why would he tweet that at 4:20am and not wait until the players arrived at the stadium?
Edit: Alive! Parker will be active today. When was last time Schefter was wrong? and why would he tweet that at 4:20am and not wait until the players arrived at the stadium?
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Wow, I was holding out hope, but I wasn't expecting him to play at all. Of course, that's huge. It'll be interesting to see how effective he'll be.
On paper, this should end up being a really good game today.
Schefter said he was likely out. Rappaport said he was going to try and run this morning to make a case for playing. He's apparently a go. Big for Miami.
Parker has come a long way this season in his maturity and accountability.
Excellent news, although let's just see how much he actually plays and how effective he is. Getting Albert and Tunsil back out there is just as encouraging, if not more so.
So what are we looking at today, 9 - 6? 12 - 9? Wouldn't be surprised to see a D/ST touchdown or two inflating the score--or let's hope they can find a way to get Tanny to keep his deep ball streak going. I'd say buckle up, but somehow that doesn't quite seem to fit the slogfest we're likely in for.
So what are we looking at today, 9 - 6? 12 - 9? Wouldn't be surprised to see a D/ST touchdown or two inflating the score--or let's hope they can find a way to get Tanny to keep his deep ball streak going. I'd say buckle up, but somehow that doesn't quite seem to fit the slogfest we're likely in for.
Good job, good effort.
Completely unprepared on D. Guys wide open everywhere. No pressure.
Not ready for prime time yet I guess. Let's see how they respond
Completely unprepared on D. Guys wide open everywhere. No pressure.
Not ready for prime time yet I guess. Let's see how they respond