I'll stick my neck out and predict Tiger fades today, quite possibly out of the top 10. He hasn't been properly in contention on Sunday for ages, and the way this normally works for a good golfer rounding back into form is that first you struggle on Thursday and Friday, then you do well through 36 but struggle on Saturday, and then you do well through 54 but struggle on Sunday. Tiger is no longer a superhuman force who can bend space, time and the field to his will; he felt the nerves on Saturday at the Greenbrier, and he's really going to feel it all day today. Plus, the winner is going to have to go low today - if this were a tougher course and the leaders were at -7 and Tiger was at -5 or something like that, I'd fancy him more to shoot a steady 68 to compete than I fancy him to go low with the 64 or better he's going to need to win. (There are 19 players within three shots of Tiger in either direction, so you have to go low or go out, and I think it's too soon in this mini-revival for Tiger to really go low on Sunday when it matters.)
What Tiger really needs is reps - and the best place to get them would be in the Fall Finish or whatever they call they're calling the wraparound season at the end of the year these days. I wonder if he'll swallow his pride and actually play in three or four of these tournaments while the NFL is on; among other things, some solid work there might give him the playoff points he needs this time next year to not have to win the Wyndham to qualify.