2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?

HomeRunBaker · Apr 4, 2015

Blacken said:
I'd concur with this, though "near flawless" is a bit much. He has a great motion when it works; sometimes you see a bit of a hitch, and those have correlated with some bad misses. I think he'll iron that out, though.

I've been saying all season that Towns is a lot like Anthony Davis in that he has a beautiful perimeter stroke and release (evident at the FT line and in his few perimeter attempts) but I didn't realize he hit 127 3-pointers in HS prior to being restricted by the UK system.

Erik Hanson's Hook · Apr 4, 2015

Great thread. One of the (many) reasons I lurk this board. Hope Ainge reads all this

Jed Zeppelin · Apr 4, 2015

Need to make a reality show out of next year's practices. Kaminsky vs. Olynyk 1v1 would be some sad, can't miss television.

Basically just hoping for a role player at this point. Maybe you grab RHJ to build up the D some more and take more of a flier on upside with the LAC pick.

tims4wins · Apr 6, 2015

Can we discuss Okafor a bit? I'm a Duke fan. Have watched basically every minute he has played at the collegiate level. His feet and hands are unlike any freshman that I've ever seen. He has some serious offensive game. But his defense is, at best, poor, and his rebounding isn't nearly as dominant as you'd think. I'm pretty sure Winslow has outrebounded Okafor in the tournament.

Are these weaknesses things that can be improved at the next level, or is Okafor's upside just somewhat limited given that he is a liability on the defensive end? I wouldn't be surprised - at all - if Winslow turns into the better pro. If given the choice between them I might even take Winslow.

LondonSox · Apr 6, 2015

There are some crazy close protected picks to clear up very late.
The Sixers are going to be looking at lottery balls for the Lakers pick (top 5 protected) but Miami is now at 11 and that's top ten protected and okc are 18 and their pick is top 18 protected. Man I can't remember one team having 3 top 20 picks right AT the protection point so late.

Conigliaro's Potential · Apr 7, 2015

tims4wins said:
Can we discuss Okafor a bit? I'm a Duke fan. Have watched basically every minute he has played at the collegiate level. His feet and hands are unlike any freshman that I've ever seen. He has some serious offensive game. But his defense is, at best, poor, and his rebounding isn't nearly as dominant as you'd think. I'm pretty sure Winslow has outrebounded Okafor in the tournament.

Are these weaknesses things that can be improved at the next level, or is Okafor's upside just somewhat limited given that he is a liability on the defensive end? I wouldn't be surprised - at all - if Winslow turns into the better pro. If given the choice between them I might even take Winslow.

He's also a 51% free throw shooter. Personally, I'd rather have a slightly worse player and not have to worry about Hack-a-Shaq (or just "Choke Oak") strategies against my team - I don't want to watch that crap - but maybe that's just me.

EL Jeffe · Apr 8, 2015

ConigliarosPotential said:
He's also a 51% free throw shooter. Personally, I'd rather have a slightly worse player and not have to worry about Hack-a-Shaq (or just "Choke Oak") strategies against my team - I don't want to watch that crap - but maybe that's just me.

I'd be very surprised if Okafor doesn't turn into a 70%+ free throw shooter down the road. His face-up game and touch are too good for him not to be able to develop into being solid at the stripe.

Conigliaro's Potential · Apr 8, 2015

Fair points, well made.

Max Venerable · Apr 9, 2015

So I'm asking this as a pretty casual Celtics fan, and a recently fired up Badgers fan/alumnis.

Is there any realistic possibility that the Celtics are able to pick up Frank Kaminsky in the draft? Would it make sense to do so? Some have compared him to Olynyk, which I suppose proves that there might be some organizational interest in that type of player, but would two of them be too many?

With good defensive guards around in Bradley and Smart, I could see the logic in loading up on plus shooting bigs, though Kaminsky looked like a pretty astute defender and rebounder to me in the tournament as well. I would assume he has more upside than Olynyk in most regards just based on his more established college pedigree.

TheRooster · Apr 9, 2015

I can't imagine the Tank and KO logging many minutes together. Throw Zeller into the rotation and you've really got defensive issues. I actually think the two guys are quite similar and I think both will be solid 14-7 guys for a number of years.

ALiveH · Apr 9, 2015

btw, WalterFootball's scouting report for Kaminsky, actually lists KO as his closest NBA comp, citing his size, offensive versatility & defensive and athletic deficiencies.

nighthob · Apr 9, 2015

Frye isn't much of a post defender either. Maybe Brad Miller? Both strong guys that can hold position in the paint, though Kaminsky's defense still needs work. I'd definitely rather Kaminsky than Olynyk, though, as I think Kaminsky has the capacity to be an asset as an NBA starter.

Cellar-Door · Apr 9, 2015

I've made the Kaminsky/Frye comp too.
He's big, but not a good defender (I think he's better than Olynyk was in college, probably not better than Olynyk is now) whose best contribution will be in pick and roll situations.
He's probably better offensively on the block than Frye, but has less range.

For the Celtics he'd be a terrible pick I think. He doesn't give you any better D at C, and Olynyk is actually probably more suited offensively to the system Stevens wants to run. You definitely can't play them together, as Olynyk is much better at the 5 than the 4, and Kaminsky can't play the 4 either.

bowiac · Apr 9, 2015

Kaminsky is probably a significantly better prospect than Olynyk was, but I'd still want to aim higher than a 22 year old with questionable defensive upside.

Of the guys projected to be available at 15+, I think Kevon Looney is my current favorite, but I'd also be happy with Caris LeVert if he comes out. Levert is probably the higher upside of the two, but he may well return to Michigan for his senior year in hopes of being a lottery pick.

soxhop411 · Apr 9, 2015

ALiveH · Apr 9, 2015

I agree. I'm a strong believer that a rebuilding team picking in that range should be biased towards potential (boom-or-bust) rather than high-floor, low-ceiling.

I'm a fan of Myles Turner if he's available (or could package our 1s to move up for him) - lots of similarities to Avery Bradley (defense-first, highly recruited prospect that wasn't optimally utilized in Texas).
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Myles-Turner-72850/

Booker is not that physically / athletically impressive, but was highly recruited as well & could be interesting as a pure shooter.

Cellar-Door · Apr 9, 2015

ALiveH said:
I agree. I'm a strong believer that a rebuilding team picking in that range should be biased towards potential (boom-or-bust) rather than high-floor, low-ceiling.

I'm a fan of Myles Turner if he's available (or could package our 1s to move up for him) - lots of similarities to Avery Bradley (defense-first, highly recruited prospect that wasn't optimally utilized in Texas).
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Myles-Turner-72850/

Booker is not that physically / athletically impressive, but was highly recruited as well & could be interesting as a pure shooter.

I always assume anyone coached by Rick Barnes will be better than they showed in College.

nighthob · Apr 9, 2015

Unless Turner turns up with physical concerns during the pre-draft camp he's going top 12. Unfortunately Boston's going to be picking from the leavings, which aren't very good.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 9, 2015

ALiveH said:
I agree. I'm a strong believer that a rebuilding team picking in that range should be biased towards potential (boom-or-bust) rather than high-floor, low-ceiling.

I'm a fan of Myles Turner if he's available (or could package our 1s to move up for him) - lots of similarities to Avery Bradley (defense-first, highly recruited prospect that wasn't optimally utilized in Texas).
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Myles-Turner-72850/

Booker is not that physically / athletically impressive, but was highly recruited as well & could be interesting as a pure shooter.

I like Turner too. Booker is a very low-upside guy who can't create offensively and has very limited defensive ability as a wing with one of the worst wingspan-to-height ratios at his position we'll see at the combine.

The X Man Cometh · Apr 9, 2015

So what's the deal with Trey Lyles? He can shoot, he looks like a power forward, he's got good offensive moves, he's got some floor game that stood out in Kentucky's games. Is he not going to defend well enough to start in the NFL? Or is his ranking on DX more a reflection of how dime-a-dozen a "traditional PF" is nowadays?

Cellar-Door · Apr 9, 2015

The X Man Cometh said:
So what's the deal with Trey Lyles? He can shoot, he looks like a power forward, he's got good offensive moves, he's got some floor game that stood out in Kentucky's games. Is he not going to defend well enough to start in the NFL? Or is his ranking on DX more a reflection of how dime-a-dozen a "traditional PF" is nowadays?

Most scouts put him as an average at best athlete on the NBA level, he doesn't defend the rim well, or defend that well in space. Also he can't stretch the floor much (he's been abysmal from the college 3 line). He'll go mid to late 1st because he has some polished offense, but his upside seems limited.

Edit- Basically the problem is this: He's a 4, who is probably going to struggle with stretch 4's taking him off the dribble, and with strong 4s abusing him in the post. On Offense unless he develops a lot more range he's an inside 12 feet player, but his strength is a concern against bigger 4s (he doesn't have the bulk right now, and getting it might cost him agility). So he could be really good in a role, but inside the lottery you are hoping for someone who can become a star.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 9, 2015

Lyles hasn't really defined himself but has some intersting NBA skills. I agree he's not an impact player but could make it in the league.

The one guy who hasn't declared that I find interesting and DOES have elite NBA athleticism is Alex Poythres coming off his ACL. He's worth a mid-2nd flier should he declare.

The X Man Cometh · Apr 10, 2015

Thanks for all the intel on Lyles. He does look pretty narrow. I read he comes from a basketball family, which is something that always scares me with prospects - if they've been playing their whole life and receiving the best coaching/advice then how much room is there for growth? The flip side is his shot looks good, I don't see why he can't stretch it out to the corner.

HomeRunBaker said:
Lyles hasn't really defined himself but has some intersting NBA skills. I agree he's not an impact player but could make it in the league.

The one guy who hasn't declared that I find interesting and DOES have elite NBA athleticism is Alex Poythres coming off his ACL. He's worth a mid-2nd flier should he declare.

Poythress seems like the type of player Philly will scoop up. Lots of defensive potential but limited offensive potential.

amfox1 · Apr 10, 2015

Still waiting to hear from the following US players of significance:

D'Angelo Russell
Justise Winslow
Stanley Johnson
Jacob Poeltl
Bobby Portis
Kris Dunn
Tyus Jones
Christian Wood
Buddy Hield
Caris LeVert
Demetrius Jackson
Justin Anderson

As of today, Boston would be picking 15/16 (depending on coin flip), 25/26 (depending on coin flip), 33 and 45/46 (depending on coin flip). With three 1st rounders and five 2nd rounders next year, Boston might be well-served if players defer to next year, strengthening next year's draft.

Vegas Sox Fan · Apr 10, 2015

Does anyone have any opinions on Christian Wood? I thought he would be gone for sure so I'm curious on why he hasn't declared yet. I've seen a few mocks that have him somewhere around the 20s.

amfox1 · Apr 10, 2015

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 53s54 seconds ago
Virginia junior Justin Anderson leaning toward entering NBA Draft, sources tell Yahoo. Final decision soon. Strong candidate for 1st round.

amfox1 · Apr 10, 2015

Vegas Sox Fan said:
Does anyone have any opinions on Christian Wood? I thought he would be gone for sure so I'm curious on why he hasn't declared yet. I've seen a few mocks that have him somewhere around the 20s.

He's an "upside" guy. He's got length, athleticism and talent but hasn't put the package together consistently. He can shoot from the outside and can drive to the hoop; however, he's not always aggressive on the floor and tends to "float" at times. He could probably use another year in school, but may come out if he has a first-round grade. Rumor is that he's leaning toward the NBA.

He's not ready to contribute and would need to do a James Young/D-League redshirt year. He's only 19 years old and likely will have a higher ceiling than others in the late-first/early-second round area.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 10, 2015

amfox1 said:
Still waiting to hear from the following US players of significance:

D'Angelo Russell
Justise Winslow
Stanley Johnson
Jacob Poeltl
Bobby Portis
Kris Dunn
Tyus Jones
Christian Wood
Buddy Hield
Caris LeVert
Demetrius Jackson
Justin Anderson

I should have some intel on the Providence kid later tonight on where he is leaning.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 11, 2015

Completely mum on Dunn aside from him loving being at Providence, wanting to graduate, and it being 100% his decision.

From sounds of this I suspect he's staying put which along with the return of Bullock, growth of Bentil and Chukwa, should make for an interesting winter.

RedOctober3829 · Apr 11, 2015

amfox1 said:
Still waiting to hear from the following US players of significance:

D'Angelo Russell--will declare
Justise Winslow--will declare
Stanley Johnson--will declare
Jacob Poeltl--will stay
Bobby Portis--will stay
Kris Dunn--will stay
Tyus Jones--will declare
Christian Wood--will stay
Buddy Hield--will stay
Caris LeVert--will stay
Demetrius Jackson--will stay
Justin Anderson--will declare

As of today, Boston would be picking 15/16 (depending on coin flip), 25/26 (depending on coin flip), 33 and 45/46 (depending on coin flip). With three 1st rounders and five 2nd rounders next year, Boston might be well-served if players defer to next year, strengthening next year's draft.

My guesses

amfox1 · Apr 13, 2015

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 2m2 minutes ago
Yahoo Sources: Virginia junior Justin Anderson plans to enter the 2015 NBA Draft. http://yhoo.it/1CAXXDk

nighthob · Apr 13, 2015

Given how awful this draft looks outside the top 10, Boston should probably look at LeVert. Not great, he's basically Evan Turner v1.2 if he pans out. Not quite as good a shot creator, but a better shooter and can play without the ball. After that Upshaw and Alexander as swing for the fences gambles because their last three picks are in the Rocky Horror Show tier of the draft.

ALiveH · Apr 13, 2015

Looking at guys available in mid-late 1st...

surprised how down a lot of people seem to be on Harrel. Watching him play a bit, he's a better rim protector than the other 4s on our roster. Plays bigger than his height b/c of his great wingspan. And, his hustle & energy are off-the-charts. Reminds me a lot of Manimal coming out of college with his rebounding, solid build & effort.

Tyus Jones seems to be under the radar a bit. This is a kid who was a top-5 prospect out of HS by every recruiting service. The questions are his all around physical tools & defense, but would provide much-needed shooting.

George Lucas is exactly the type of high-upside physical freak we should be taking shots on in the late 1st.

My top choice would be to package our firsts if we can get a shot at Turner or Poeltl (whichever danny thinks is better).

nighthob · Apr 13, 2015

Latest indications are that Poeltl and Stanley Johnson are on the fence about entering the draft with the odds in favour of them returning for another year. Lowe seemed to think that Boston could move Bradley for a late lottery pick, and that's pretty much the only way to do it. Teams trading lottery picks want players or a promise of a higher pick these days. If Boston could deal Bradley for Kelly Oubre I think they'd have to consider it, as Oubre looks to have the frame to play at 220-230 without sacrificing athleticism, but obviously he's a long term project.

nighthob · Apr 13, 2015

I should also say that I'll be interested in seeing just how Lucas tests out athletically at the combine. His length seems pretty unholy, and if the athleticism is there he'd be another lottery ticket they could take a flyer on.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 13, 2015

ALiveH said:
Looking at guys available in mid-late 1st...

surprised how down a lot of people seem to be on Harrel. Watching him play a bit, he's a better rim protector than the other 4s on our roster. Plays bigger than his height b/c of his great wingspan. And, his hustle & energy are off-the-charts. Reminds me a lot of Manimal coming out of college with his rebounding, solid build & effort.

Tyus Jones seems to be under the radar a bit. This is a kid who was a top-5 prospect out of HS by every recruiting service. The questions are his all around physical tools & defense, but would provide much-needed shooting.

George Lucas is exactly the type of high-upside physical freak we should be taking shots on in the late 1st.

My top choice would be to package our firsts if we can get a shot at Turner or Poeltl (whichever danny thinks is better).

Undersized energy guys don't typically go high 1st. One analogy would be that of today's NFL RB......why use a high pick on a role player without upside when you can get a similar level player on the scrap heap pretty much whenever you want.

I attribute so many busts in the high teen range to this strategy of swinging for the fences here once you get outside that Top-5 range or so rather than using it as a guy like Harrell.

nighthob · Apr 13, 2015

HomeRunBaker said:
I attribute so many busts in the high teen range to this strategy of swinging for the fences here once you get outside that Top-5 range or so rather than using it as a guy like Harrell.

I think Harrell and LeVert are safe picks in that they both project out as quality roleplayers. It probably behooves Boston to play it safe at 15/16 and take their gambles with the other three picks.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 13, 2015

nighthob said:
I think Harrell and LeVert are safe picks in that they both project out as quality roleplayers. It probably behooves Boston to play it safe at 15/16 and take their gambles with the other three picks.

Right our situation is unique with having multiple picks behind our first. Ainge has a track record of selecting an upside guy with a older safer role players when he has two or more picks.

Jefferson - Delonte and Allen
Gerald Green - Gomes and Orien Greene
Bradley - Harangody
Melo - Sullinger

ALiveH · Apr 13, 2015

Avery & Sullinger (and maybe others I'm forgetting) - Ainge also seems to like the kids who were top-5 coming out of HS but saw their draft stock slip after a subpar college career.

TheDeuce222 · Apr 14, 2015

I agree that moving up for a Poeltl or Turner is probably what Ainge should and will be looking to do if the price is not prohibitive. But if they stay at the 15/16 spot and take a player, the player I'd like them to look long and hard at is Bobby Portis from Arkansas, who declared this afternoon. He's a pretty athletic 6'10/6'11, is a good rebounder and a decent shot blocker (17.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 1.4 BPG last year on 53% shooting). He is not and will never be a center, but he has some upside as a modern power forward, has an NBA body, looks like he can contribute defensively and on the glass, and can shoot it from outside a bit.

nighthob · Apr 14, 2015

Trading up into the top 10-11 will require something like one of the Brooklyn picks, and probably isn't worth it.

TheDeuce222 · Apr 14, 2015

nighthob said:
Trading up into the top 10-11 will require something like one of the Brooklyn picks, and probably isn't worth it.

Doubt it. Last year, #16 and #19 was the price for Chicago to move up to #11. An unprotected future #1 on a bad team is worth considerably more than #19, so if they want to move up to the 10-12 range, I think #16 and the Mavs pick would probably do it. Maybe, but probably not, they could get it done with #16, the Clippers pick (around #26) and the Philly second rounder (around #33).

RedOctober3829 · Apr 14, 2015

Jeff Goodman ‏@GoodmanESPN 17s17 seconds ago
Duke releases that Justise Winslow is headed to the NBA. Not exactly earth-shattering news. Likely Top 10 pick.

nighthob · Apr 14, 2015

TheDeuce222 said:
Doubt it. Last year, #16 and #19 was the price for Chicago to move up to #11.

In a draft where the talent drop started around 8. If you're saying that Boston could trade up higher within the crapshoot bracket, sure. If the top 10-11 guys that look like NBA starters are gone I'm sure that teams after that would be happy to deal out. But, no, you're not getting Myles Turner for the pupu platter of suck.

Smokey Joe · Apr 15, 2015

nighthob said:
In a draft where the talent drop started around 8. If you're saying that Boston could trade up higher within the crapshoot bracket, sure. If the top 10-11 guys that look like NBA starters are gone I'm sure that teams after that would be happy to deal out. But, no, you're not getting Myles Turner for the pupu platter of suck.

I think you are overrating the 2015 draft compared with the 2014 draft. Porzingis was mocked at about pick 15 last year when he was pulled out by his handlers because they thought he could do better this year. This year he is showing up at #8.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 15, 2015

Smokey Joe said:
I think you are overrating the 2015 draft compared with the 2014 draft. Porzingis was mocked at about pick 15 last year when he was pulled out by his handlers because they thought he could do better this year. This year he is showing up at #8.

Porzingis has taken a huge leap from last year and likely will go higher than 8.

In other news, I'm hearing it's close to certain now that Dunn is staying put at Providence. I kinda like this move for him with so much uncertainty in the middle round.

ivanvamp · Apr 15, 2015

Let's say you're Boston sitting at #15, and you have the following guys to pick from. Who do you take and why?

C Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
C/F Myles Turner, Texas
PG Tyus Jones, Duke
SG Devin Booker, Kentucky
PG Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
PF Montrezl Harrell, Louisville

I like the C's at the G position right now with Bradley, Thomas, and Smart. But I wouldn't mind adding Grant, who could probably play either position. I also would love a big, strong, athletic F like Harrell. I know some here don't like him as a pro but his improved jump shot makes him an enticing option. He has WAY more athleticism and a mean streak than Sullinger.

But how would you turn down Kaminsky, who, though not a rim protector, is still 7 feet and has all kinds of pro ability. His shooting range would make him a prototypical shooting big man, would it not?

EL Jeffe · Apr 15, 2015

The only way Turner lasts to 15 is if it's a Sully situation and the medicals don't check out. It would be a worthwhile gamble for a team like Boston in that case, but it would be very surprising for him to drop that far.

I like Grant for his size. You could play him alongside Bradley, Smart and IT4 and he'd compliment each of them fairly well. I think his size, skills and athletic ability all play at the NBA level, but I'm not sure he ever becomes more than a 3rd or 4th guard in the league.

Kaminsky is fine. Does a lot of Olynyk things but seems to have better agility/lateral quickness (but really, who doesn'?). He fits the offensive system Boston is trying to run and he seems like a good enough kid. But he doesn't help with Boston's defensive issues and he's not going to rebound in traffic at the next level. He's a solid, safe pick at 15/16 but I'm not sure if he'll be there.

Booker does nothing for me. One dimensional, and I'm not sure his shot is even all that special.

Harrell's offensive game is pretty crappy and has a limited upside. He's an energy big off the bench who isn't all that big. I'd rather roll the dice on Cliff Alexander later in the draft; he could be Tristan Thompson in a few years, and that ain't bad.

Jones is kind of interesting. He's small and he won't be able to guard anyone, but the intangibles are off the charts and he's fairly skilled offensively. I can't see him as a starting PG in the league because of his limitations, but he could be a nice backup PG.

So with all that being said, from your list, I'd EASILY take Turner 1st (but he won't be there) and Kaminsky 2nd (decent chance he won't be there either, but I'd rather go with the 7' role player over smaller role players...)

2015 NBA Draft Thread-Choke For Oak?

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