I don't bet on sports so maybe I have it backwards... but wouldn't making Denver less of an underdog serve to entice more bets on Denver? If Vegas felt there was too much money on NE and they want more bets on Denver, then they would reduce the spread on NE's win, wouldn't they?My initial post had it backwards--it moved from Pats -5 to Pats -3 since yesterday. That means either something happened such as an injury, which I didn't see (in fact, from yesterday to today, it seems the injury news got slightly better for NE), or a bunch of money came in on Denver. Now, is that early public money or was it the sharps?
It opened at -5.5 on Monday. Dobson/Amendola hurt Monday night. Line adjusted to -3 on Tuesday morning.
You've got it backwards I think. Think of it this way - at NE -5, NE has to win by more than 5 to win the bet for you. If a lot of money is coming in on Denver, moving the line to NE -3 would entice those on the fence to sway towards NE, because now they only have to win by 3+ to win the bet.I don't bet on sports so maybe I have it backwards... but wouldn't making Denver less of an underdog serve to entice more bets on Denver? If Vegas felt there was too much money on NE and they want more bets on Denver, then they would reduce the spread on NE's win, wouldn't they?
maybe I'm wrong
day dawns on marblehead... that makes sense, thanks.You've got it backwards I think. Think of it this way - at NE -5, NE has to win by more than 5 to win the bet for you. If a lot of money is coming in on Denver, moving the line to NE -3 would entice those on the fence to sway towards NE, because now they only have to win by 3+ to win the bet.
This is reminiscent of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, complete with the implicit insult to the immediate predecessor.
The Brock era has begun...
This is reminiscent of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, complete with the implicit insult to the immediate predecessor.
I'm not sure about the insult, but you can certainly argue that others were more deserving of AFC Offensive Player of the week. Brock had 250 yards and 2 TDs against the Bears. Dalton had 315 yards and 2 TDs against the Cardinals. Yes, a worse completion percentage but also greater yardage totals and against better competition. Dalton also had 34 yards rushing (versus 4 yards for Brock).
yeah its no plom costanza she even wore steel toe bootsWell shit, I take back my snark. I have a relative that worked in an Amazon fulfillment center, it's no joke physically.
for me as a razorback/broncos fan in college he beat the razorbacks awful so a lot of other qb lol but it was the 2003 2004 wild card games i am still pissed off about esp the 2004 game but basicy its media worship i mean only 1 SB win and NE shouild had won that year in all his playoff games he had the batter team in 60 % of the games and still lostWatching you turn on Denver quarterbacks when you're tired of them is fascinating.
(note: I just made a Tebow joke in V&N, so it's on my mind)
I don't see how you can say the Pats schedule is "easy" if they're without Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, Hightower and Collins for the next few weeks.Battle for the 1 seed is officially on. Pats have a slim lead (but have very easy schedule- vs. Phi, @ Hou, vs. Ten, @ NYJ, @ MIA) compared to Denver and Cincinnati (who have to play each other in what will likely be a playoff bye elimination game.
But dude, he looked at the records of the upcoming teams and then compared it to the Pats record. Are you looking for him to go beyond that? Let's be reasonable.I don't see how you can say the Pats schedule is "easy" if they're without Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, Hightower and Collins for the next few weeks.
You have got to be kidding me.I suggest renaming this thread to "2015 Broncos: better to be lucky than good"
Huh? I'm looking at the quality of opponents on their schedule. Even if Gronk and Hightower don't play again in the regular season, the Pats will be favored in each of these games. Every team they play from here on out is worse than 3 of the 5 teams the Broncos have left (Cincinnati, Oakland, Pittsburgh). There not guaranteed victories, and winning the games will be more difficult w/ a depleted team, but each team they are playing from here on out ranges from mediocre to bad.But dude, he looked at the records of the upcoming teams and then compared it to the Pats record. Are you looking for him to go beyond that? Let's be reasonable.
I don't share the same optimism. This is not the All-World Pats team of earlier this season, on either side of the ball. The Texans, Jets and Dolphins @ MIA could all give the current NE team a scare. Meanwhile, the winner of CIN @ DEN could run the table. I'm more worried about holding on to the bye than HFA at this point.Battle for the 1 seed is officially on. Pats have a slim lead (but have very easy schedule- vs. Phi, @ Hou, vs. Ten, @ NYJ, @ MIA) compared to Denver and Cincinnati (who have to play each other in what will likely be a playoff bye elimination game.
I'm not saying they're close to a lock to get the #1. I'm just saying that, given the choice, I'd rather they play their slate of teams instead of Denvers 10/10.I don't share the same optimism. This is not the All-World Pats team of earlier this season, on either side of the ball. The Texans, Jets and Dolphins @ MIA could all give the current NE team a scare. Meanwhile, the winner of CIN @ DEN could run the table. I'm more worried about holding on to the bye than HFA at this point.
So, um, ... go Steelers! (just threw up in my mouth a little there).
Two things:The running attack looked very good tonight. I don't know what the hell was wrong with CJ Anderson earlier in the season, but he looks pretty legit these days. Was Peyton really so bad that he sucked down the entire offense?
The "vaunted Denver defense" you mention played almost all of last night without starters DE Demarcus Ware, DT Sylvester Williams and SS T.J. Ward. If those guys are back for a rematch I think both sides of that matchup will be much stronger.Patriots fans have to feel pretty good about playing that Denver team again if we have two of Edelman, Gronkowski, and Amendola back and the game is in Foxboro. Really moved the ball well against the vaunted Denver defense despite an incredible disparity in breaks that went against NE.
I think he has a future at least as a below-average starter/journeyman type. That might sound like I'm damning him with faint praise but few guys reach even that level. Whether he can be even better and settle in as a Top 15 or even Top 10 guy for the next 6-7 years is really impossible to say at this point.Curious to hear what Pats fans thought of Osweiler.
My take (after the admittedly small samples size of snaps, granted):
The Bad: I think his worst tendency is the hold the ball a little too long and not throw it away when he has no open receivers and is about to get sacked (the play early when he took the sack that pushed them out of FG territory is a prime example), but that's not exactly an uncommon trait in your QBs. His INT last night was the result of the tipped pass and then bad luck with the bounce going to the defender, but he had several other balls get tipped at the line of scrimmage too, so that's something they need to work on (the OL bears some responsibility there for not making their blocks, of course). He also threw behind receivers in some key spots and lacked accuracy on some short/intermediate routes that hurt the offense. Needs work throwing accurately when he's under impending pressure.
The Good: He seems to have the mental ability to roll with what the game gives him and not get flustered. Even when plays failed, he had the team right back in the huddle and working on the next play. He seemed to avoid shrinking when the stakes got higher. He didn't get totally flustered by NE's defensive schemes (he spoke in the post-game interview about how NE came out and showed him looks that he did not recognize from tape and that they had to work them out as the game wore on). He audibled a few key times (including the final TD play in OT). Mechanically I like the way he throws the ball (good spiral, keeps the nose of the ball pointed down a lot like Brady does in the short passing game) and his deep balls were well thrown and a few were perfectly placed.
In general, I'm feeling pretty good about his potential. If he can keep up the quality of play for several more weeks, I think Denver will do what they can to re-sign him and hand him the team in 2016. The impending rebuild purgatory after Manning might not be all that bad if what we have seen in Brock these last 2 weeks is his true talent level.
I think that's a good upside comparison.I've said this in the past, but having 2 full games to watch him in action has cemented it: I think Osweiler's ceiling is Joe Flacco. I don't expect him to be able to be Montana or Favre, but a guy like Flacco seems like his top potential.
You can win a lot of football games with a guy like Flacco under center. Especially if you pair that with a good defense. If he can grow into that type of play, I'm happy.
Yeah, he has a bit of a 3/4 side arm angle and you're right that he effectively gives away a foot of his height. I wonder if that's correctable or if tinkering with that does more damage than good.Aside from holding the ball too long which might be correctable with experience, the one knock i would have is that his release sort of negates his height advantage. At 6'8" he shouldn't be getting balls batted at the line but there were a few last night. Again, with experience he might be able to see routes and shuffle himself into a window to get passes unobstructed.
Especially when the batter is Branch, who is 6'6" himself.6' 8" of course is really tall, but aren't a ton of other QBs almost that height? Brady's 6'4, Flacco's 6'6, Bledsoe was 6'5,
Roethlisberger is 6 '5. I'm not sure an extra inch or two makes a huge difference in the ability to avoid batted balls.
I've said this in the past, but having 2 full games to watch him in action has cemented it: I think Osweiler's ceiling is Joe Flacco. I don't expect him to be able to be Montana or Favre, but a guy like Flacco seems like his top potential.
You can win a lot of football games with a guy like Flacco under center. Especially if you pair that with a good defense. If he can grow into that type of play, I'm happy.
Well, they spent their "referee aided miracle/robbery in the snow" game last night. That leaves them with the "incredible special teams domination" and "stupid opposing coach refuses to use his hall of fame player" miracle games to playIt will sort of be good enough. Brady in '01 needed a series of minor miracles to win the Super Bowl, this year's Broncos team with that kind of QB probably will as well.
I refer to that game as the "what a party" game, because in the NFL highlights there is a Jets fan dancing and laughing it up with the Jets up 13-0 at halftime. Then Vinny was Vinny and threw two second half picks.I don't know how to label whatever the road win over the Jets was where I think Fred Coleman had a big 60 yard catch, but that still remains to me one of the most improbable wins of the BB/Brady era.
What a great season.
EVERY SINGLE TIME a post like this happens next to your avatar, I just lose it. I know. I'm like, 12.Well, they spent their "referee aided miracle/robbery in the snow" game last night. That leaves them with the "incredible special teams domination" and "stupid opposing coach refuses to use his hall of fame player" miracle games to play
Clady is either cut or restructured into a much smaller cap hit deal. The guy just can't stay healthy enough to eat up that cap.This is exactly what I was thinking last night. Flacco is a great comparison. He will learn to get rid of the ball quicker and he is tough for one guy to bring down with his size and good feet.
Are you willing to cut Clady & Ware this offseason to keep him? If he plays at last night's level the rest of the year he is going to earn a Kaepernick type deal at $12-15M per year. You already have to use the tag on Von Miller, so other cuts are going to have to happen.
Any news on Ward or Williams?Two things:
1. CJ had a toe injury and I think it's now clear that he was hampered by it a lot.
2. Kubiak's system works best for the ground game with the QB taking snaps under center (which Brock is doing). Manning took 90% of his snaps from shotgun or pistol. I think it has had a huge impact.
The "vaunted Denver defense" you mention played almost all of last night without starters DE Demarcus Ware, DT Sylvester Williams and SS T.J. Ward. If those guys are back for a rematch I think both sides of that matchup will be much stronger.
Both have high ankle sprains are day-to-day.Any news on Ward or Williams?