AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup

bigq

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When was the last time the Pats lost to an offensive juggernaut?
The Eagles last season had the 3rd best scoring offense in the league and were only one point behind the Patriots for 2nd in the league. I guess juggernaut may mean league’s best scoring offense in which case I think you have to go back to 2013 Broncos.
 

PseuFighter

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I booked (refundable) travel + hotel back in November thinking this game was going to happen. And here we are.

My luck, 1-2 feet of snow and I have no way of getting there.
 

Saints Rest

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I’d assume any team in in a conference game would make preemptive travel plans for SB. I’m sure Pats have as well. It’s easy enough to cancel.
Was my allusion to the Steelers not obvious? Or are you too young to remember the 2001 playoffs? (That’s not a dig, and this could easily be in the Celebrating What Is thread, but’s it’s possible that one could be a serious, regular poster here at SOSH and still be young enough not to remember that team.)
 

Deathofthebambino

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Google says 14 at 7 PM. Plus it looks like they are getting snow on Saturday. Think that helps the Patriots if it stays that way. Might subdue the crowd.
It will certainly quiet the crowd. One of the things Pats fans have been accused of over the years is not making enough noise, but as someone who has been in the stadium hundreds of times, I can tell you a big reason is because when it gets cold, people wear gloves, and when you clap with gloves on, it's like a tree falling in the forest. Clapping is a big part of crowds making noise. The colder the better next week. Just gotta make sure someone remembers to pack Brady's SCUBA suit for him.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Best team in the NFL arguably at home. Mediocre to worse when they played on the road.

Kind of makes you wonder how they would look if they played on a neutral field.

I hope we get to find out.
 

genoasalami

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Dry and very cold. 10 to 15 degrees seems reasonable, but it is still a week away. It certainly will not be warm.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Was my allusion to the Steelers not obvious? Or are you too young to remember the 2001 playoffs? (That’s not a dig, and this could easily be in the Celebrating What Is thread, but’s it’s possible that one could be a serious, regular poster here at SOSH and still be young enough not to remember that team.)
I certainly remember it, I was a senior in college but I was living in dc so that’s an anecdote that I wasn’t aware of as I wasn’t immersed in local media. Apologies.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I mentioned it in the other thread, but believe it or not, the Patriots have not won a playoff game on the road in 12 years, excluding neutral site Super Bowls. The last one was in 2007 against San Diego, so hopefully, there is some kind of "full circle," coincidence nonsense going on this year, coming off a win against San Diego this week. In fairness, the Pats haven't really had to win a lot of games on the road since 2007. They lost at Indy, and twice at Denver during that time. Of course, they've also been to 5 Super Bowls.
 

BaseballJones

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The Patriots simply have to take advantage of KC's awful defense. They must punish them. Expose their glaring weakness.
 

BaseballJones

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KC has the 2nd worst rush defense in football, giving up 5.0 yards per carry. NE is 3rd worst at 4.9. The Rams are dead last at 5.1.

Until yesterday, in their five previous games, KC had allowed 171, 194, 119, 210, and 127 yards on the ground, losing 2 of those 5 games. In Foxboro earlier in the year they allowed 173 rushing yards (and 327 passing yards). Meanwhile, in their past 3 games, NE has allowed 18-72, 23-104, and 10-19 (total: 51-195, 3.8 avg) on the ground. So NE's rush defense has been trending right, while KC's has been trending wrong until yesterday.

But.....I think KC will be able to run effectively using Mahomes and the RPO action. Reid gives Belichick fits from a scheme point of view and I see no reason why that will change next week. The key is making a few big plays on defense, maybe stiffening in the red zone and forcing FGs instead of TDs, and the offense needs to have a big, big day. I think they'll need 35+ to win, as I don't see them keeping KC in the 20s.
 

RedOctober3829

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KC has the 2nd worst rush defense in football, giving up 5.0 yards per carry. NE is 3rd worst at 4.9. The Rams are dead last at 5.1.

Until yesterday, in their five previous games, KC had allowed 171, 194, 119, 210, and 127 yards on the ground, losing 2 of those 5 games. In Foxboro earlier in the year they allowed 173 rushing yards (and 327 passing yards). Meanwhile, in their past 3 games, NE has allowed 18-72, 23-104, and 10-19 (total: 51-195, 3.8 avg) on the ground. So NE's rush defense has been trending right, while KC's has been trending wrong until yesterday.

But.....I think KC will be able to run effectively using Mahomes and the RPO action. Reid gives Belichick fits from a scheme point of view and I see no reason why that will change next week. The key is making a few big plays on defense, maybe stiffening in the red zone and forcing FGs instead of TDs, and the offense needs to have a big, big day. I think they'll need 35+ to win, as I don't see them keeping KC in the 20s.
If they aren’t in zone, there won’t be as many holes forMahomes to throw off the RPOs. Hopefully Wise will be back because he’s done a good job setting the edge on his side.
 

Red Averages

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This just feels like a game the Patriots should win. They should be able to run the ball effectively, and the cold air should benefit the Patriots style over the Chiefs style. The defense advantage should favor the Patriots considerably, though Berry's status will be worth following. I fully expect the Patriots D to show up with some new wrinkles given the Chiefs will be playing the Pats for a 2nd time, and they've had 11 games since then. We'll probably know within 2-3 drives how this one will go.

If the Patriots can play like they did today, they'll win this one by 10+.
 

TFisNEXT

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KC has the 2nd worst rush defense in football, giving up 5.0 yards per carry. NE is 3rd worst at 4.9. The Rams are dead last at 5.1.

Until yesterday, in their five previous games, KC had allowed 171, 194, 119, 210, and 127 yards on the ground, losing 2 of those 5 games. In Foxboro earlier in the year they allowed 173 rushing yards (and 327 passing yards). Meanwhile, in their past 3 games, NE has allowed 18-72, 23-104, and 10-19 (total: 51-195, 3.8 avg) on the ground. So NE's rush defense has been trending right, while KC's has been trending wrong until yesterday.

But.....I think KC will be able to run effectively using Mahomes and the RPO action. Reid gives Belichick fits from a scheme point of view and I see no reason why that will change next week. The key is making a few big plays on defense, maybe stiffening in the red zone and forcing FGs instead of TDs, and the offense needs to have a big, big day. I think they'll need 35+ to win, as I don't see them keeping KC in the 20s.
All 3 of those games for the Patriots were at home where their defense has been light years better. I expect the Patriots defense to be a complete dumpster fire next week. The key will be getting a turnover or two and a couple red zone stops, but I don't expect more than 1 or 2 punts by KC. They will simply need to not blow their couple chances at INTs....Mahomes will likely have a couple that get away and they can't drop them.

It will mostly be up to the offense...which I think most agree on. Offense will have to finish in the red zone and chew clock with long drives. Basically like aganst the Chargers in the first half.
 

DJnVa

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I booked (refundable) travel + hotel back in November thinking this game was going to happen. And here we are.

My luck, 1-2 feet of snow and I have no way of getting there.
The game is in 7 days---were you leaving tonight?
 

brandonchristensen

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Totally. Even Mark Sanchez has fewer INTs in Conference Championship games!



The Pats never lost to the Ravens in the Divisional Round, if I’m reading you right?

Unless you’re willing to accept last year’s Super Bowl — those Eagles were pretty great on offense, even with Foles — I’d say the answer to your “offensive juggernaut” question is the 2013 Broncos, and that crappy AFCCG in Denver where Talib got hurt early and the Broncos were up 23-3 at one point.
Yeah, that one sucked.

Not Divisional Round, sorry, it was the Wild Card round. Crazy. Been so long.
 

The Mort Report

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I know this is why he does it but Im recording first take tomorrow (today?) because I can wait to hear Max talk about how the only reason Brady had good numbers was because of the running game and BB and he was actually below average for the game throwing the ball
 

soxin6

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I know this is why he does it but Im recording first take tomorrow (today?) because I can wait to hear Max talk about how the only reason Brady had good numbers was because of the running game and BB and he was actually below average for the game throwing the ball
Max Kellerman is proof that an Ivy League education doesn't mean that you can't be on TV and demonstrate that you are a moron on a daily basis.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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Game plan is simple, run the ball down their throats and set up the play action pass. Win the TOP battle and keep KC off the field. If our lines played like they did yesterday, we will win this game.
 

wilked

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Game plan is simple, run the ball down their throats and set up the play action pass. Win the TOP battle and keep KC off the field. If our lines played like they did yesterday, we will win this game.
Agreed with one more point - win the turnover battle. Need to be +1 or +2
 

mauf

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Was my allusion to the Steelers not obvious? Or are you too young to remember the 2001 playoffs? (That’s not a dig, and this could easily be in the Celebrating What Is thread, but’s it’s possible that one could be a serious, regular poster here at SOSH and still be young enough not to remember that team.)
The 2001 Steelers turned in a dominant performance against the defending champion Ravens in the divisional round, while the Pats snuck past the Raiders in the “tuck rule” game. Goes to show the folly of drawing sweeping conclusions based on a single week’s games. Neither the Pats nor the Chiefs gets to bottle this week’s dominance and serve it up next week.
 

DJnVa

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High temp Sunday has changed from 20 degrees---to 15 degrees.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Wish I could share the confidence that others seem to have. They have been generally awful on the road this year, against much lesser teams, with the exception of the Bears game. If the Pats play like they did yesterday they can absolutely win. They have not shown the ability to play that way on the road this year, though.
 

Captaincoop

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The Pats have a very tall task in front of them this week. Look at the playoffs so far - again and again, teams that looked like world beaters one week have looked like tomato cans the next. The only change? They've gone on the road.

When was the last time a home team lost one of these conference championship games? I would imagine home teams have won at least the last 10.

Edit: exactly the last ten...no road team has advanced since the 2012 season.
 

genoasalami

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High likelihood of a major snow storm Sunday in New England. Would have made for an interesting game at Foxborough....at least they are in...
 

BigSoxFan

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Wish I could share the confidence that others seem to have. They have been generally awful on the road this year, against much lesser teams, with the exception of the Bears game. If the Pats play like they did yesterday they can absolutely win. They have not shown the ability to play that way on the road this year, though.
I tend to agree. The Pats absolutely can win but I don’t think it’s particularly likely given what we’ve seen in road games this year. They just haven’t executed very well and this upcoming game will be in a much tougher environment.

With that said, it does look like the Pats have found their identity on offense since the departure of Gordon. The running game has been very good and play action is working well. If the running game remains strong on Sunday, this game is basically a toss up that will be decided by red zone execution, turnovers, lucky bounces, etc. If the running game gets shut down, the path to winning is incredibly narrow. The defense has given up way too many big plays against KC. Can't have any easy TDs like that in the AFCCG and expect to win.

The fan boy in me really wants to see Gronk with one last career-defining game.
 

johnmd20

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I tend to agree. The Pats absolutely can win but I don’t think it’s particularly likely given what we’ve seen in road games this year. They just haven’t executed very well and this upcoming game will be in a much tougher environment.

With that said, it does look like the Pats have found their identity on offense since the departure of Gordon. The running game has been very good and play action is working well. If the running game remains strong on Sunday, this game is basically a toss up that will be decided by red zone execution, turnovers, lucky bounces, etc. If the running game gets shut down, the path to winning is incredibly narrow. The defense has given up way too many big plays against KC. Can't have any easy TDs like that in the AFCCG and expect to win.

The fan boy in me really wants to see Gronk with one last career-defining game.
What does not particularly likely mean? A Bill Belichick team is very likely to be well positioned to compete in this game. They are on the road and 3 point underdogs. They are almost just as likely to win as they are to lose.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Wish I could share the confidence that others seem to have. They have been generally awful on the road this year, against much lesser teams, with the exception of the Bears game. If the Pats play like they did yesterday they can absolutely win. They have not shown the ability to play that way on the road this year, though.
Yep.

First time they’ve been a dog since visiting Denver for the 2013 AFCCG.

I think they’ve only been a playoff dog a handful of times: ‘06 AFCCG at Indy, ‘13 AFCCG at Denver, ‘01 AFCCG at PIT, ‘01 SB vs STL.

Not shockingly, three of those games were on the road. I’d say the ‘13 Broncos were flat out better than the version of the Pats that trotted into Denver, with homefield arguably a key factor in the ‘15 and ‘06 losses.
 

Van Everyman

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It’s crazy how the Chris Harper fumble almost singlehandedly prevented the 2015 team from getting to the super bowl that season.

Okay, that and some of the most bogus OPI calls in the history of the game against Gronk.
 

DJnVa

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Wish I could share the confidence that others seem to have. They have been generally awful on the road this year, against much lesser teams, with the exception of the Bears game. If the Pats play like they did yesterday they can absolutely win. They have not shown the ability to play that way on the road this year, though.
I don't think it's straight "we're definitely gonna win" confidence. It's that the last 2 games they have played probably the 2 most complete games of the season. And are healthy.
 

Captaincoop

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It’s crazy how the Chris Harper fumble almost singlehandedly prevented the 2015 team from getting to the super bowl that season.

Okay, that and some of the most bogus OPI calls in the history of the game against Gronk.
A week from now we may be talking about how a 70-yard, multi-lateral TD with time expired cost the Pats a trip to the Super Bowl.
 

johnmd20

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A week from now we may be talking about how a 70-yard, multi-lateral TD with time expired cost the Pats a trip to the Super Bowl.
Or maybe we'll be talking about the fact that the Patriots could win 3 Super Bowls in 5 years, 13 years after they won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.
 

BigSoxFan

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What does not particularly likely mean? A Bill Belichick team is very likely to be well positioned to compete in this game. They are on the road and 3 point underdogs. They are almost just as likely to win as they are to lose.
This team went 3-5 on the road this year with 2 of those wins coming against the Jets and Bills. They just haven't played well on the road this year. Now they're facing the #1 team in the conference with the best QB in the league in an even tougher environment. For whatever reason, they have not been good on the road this year. I obviously hope that changes on Sunday.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I don't think it's straight "we're definitely gonna win" confidence. It's that the last 2 games they have played probably the 2 most complete games of the season. And are healthy.
I hear you, but both games were at home. I don't know why they struggled so badly on the road this year but they did, hopefully they can figure out why between now and Sunday. I'm not saying they can't win, but I'm not expecting it.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This team went 3-5 on the road this year with 2 of those wins coming against the Jets and Bills. They just haven't played well on the road this year. Now they're facing the #1 team in the conference with the best QB in the league in an even tougher environment. For whatever reason, they have not been good on the road this year. I obviously hope that changes on Sunday.
I hear you, but both games were at home. I don't know why they struggled so badly on the road this year but they did, hopefully they can figure out why between now and Sunday. I'm not saying they can't win, but I'm not expecting it.
I guess its just a question of what inference do we draw from their road record this year. Many of the key players (and obviously, coaches) are the same as the last few years and this team went 15-1 on the road over the course of 2016-17.

Unless there's a specific theory about why the Patriots were amazing on the road for two years (indeed, better on the road than at home) than suddenly a poor team on the road this year, our default assumption should be to chalk it up to variance and shit happening.

That's not to say that its not a disadvantage to be on the road but reading too much into a few games, when there is no longer trend beyond this year and no convincing theory (at least that I've heard) about why a change would occur, is a mistake IMO.
 

Mooch

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The Colts utter refusal to try to run the ball on Saturday is still completely baffling to me. I know that they got down early but the second series three and out with three Luck incompletions showed me that they didn't have the right game plan against the Chiefs. I think the Patriots will be far more disciplined on Sunday.
 

Red Averages

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What are we thinking for a defensive plan? Chip/slow down Kelce at the line every play, double Hill and force Damien Williams/Sammy Watkins to beat you? At the least, you'd expect that would slow down KC and ideally force them into some 3rd and medium/long situations.
 

BaseballJones

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There are two ways to look at it, I think. One is to point to their usual road success and say that this year was an aberration, and each game has it's own "excuse":

- at Jax: This was back when Jax was good and this was their Super Bowl. Early in the year, when NE is still figuring things out. No Jules. No Gordon.

- at Det: Facing Matt Patricia, who knows the Pats inside and out. Still no Jules. No Gordon.

- at Ten: Facing Mike Vrabel, who knows the Pats inside and out. Ten at that point had the league's stingiest defense.

- at Mia: Traditional house of horrors for NE, but they lost on the flukiest, weirdest, once-in-a-lifetime plays ever.

- at Pit: A place where they normally play well, they played Pit even. Brady made a key mistake. The Pats had every chance to win that game, something they normally pull out.

Ok, so that's one way to look at it. The other is to simply say, yeah, they were bad on the road this year. Look at the raw numbers (be ready to avert your eyes...these are ugly):

Points per game: 20.4 (three times held to 10 points)
Points allowed per game: 24.0
Yards per game: 356.3 (boosted by one huge game against the Jets)
Yards allowed per game: 398.9

Look at the caliber of opponent and their final records:

L at Jax (5-11)
L at Det (6-10)
W at Chi (12-4)
W at Buf (6-10)
L at Ten (9-7)
W at NYJ (4-12)
L at Mia (7-9)
L at Pit (9-6-1)

Three wins against opponents with a combined record of 22-26.
Five losses against opponents with a combined record of 36-43-1.

So really, they struggle on the road this year big-time. Add to that the Chiefs' dominance at home, and there's every chance that this could be a KC blowout win.


So it depends on how you want to look at it. I think the Pats absolutely can win this game, but this is one game where I fear KC could really throttle the Patriots.
 

BigSoxFan

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I guess its just a question of what inference do we draw from their road record this year. Many of the key players (and obviously, coaches) are the same as the last few years and this team went 15-1 on the road over the course of 2016-17.

Unless there's a specific theory about why the Patriots were amazing on the road for two years (indeed, better on the road than at home) than suddenly a poor team on the road this year, our default assumption should be to chalk it up to variance and shit happening.

That's not to say that its not a disadvantage to be on the road but reading too much into a few games, when there is no longer trend beyond this year and no convincing theory (at least that I've heard) about why a change would occur, is a mistake IMO.
I think this position is fair. To be clear, I think the Pats are certainly very capable of a 2001/2004 AFCCG performance. How they did in Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee earlier in the year is probably less relevant than how the team has looked over the past few games, which is quite good. I'm not sure if they're "better" without Josh Gordon on offense but the unit as a whole appears to be more cohesive now with him gone. On offense, I think they've found their identity a bit and the defense has looked much better lately, mostly because the front 7 is generating consistent pressure. The secondary has been pretty consistently good all year.

I remain fascinated by this matchup. If the game were in Foxboro, I'd be very confident. Now that it's in KC, I think it's going to be a very tough game to win. And that's mostly because Mahomes is so good and we've had little success in stopping their offense lately. The obvious counterpoint to that is that the same can be said with KC's defense and Brady.

I would love to see this team jump out early and force Mahomes into some rookie mistakes.
 

BaseballJones

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Patrick Mahomes is an absolute beast. His overall stats this year are off the charts, and obviously they're great at home. Here are his 9 home games (including playoffs):

vs SF: 24-38, 326 yds, 6 td, 0 int, 154.8 rating
vs Jax: 22-38, 313 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 62.7 rating
vs Cin: 28-39, 358 yds, 4 td, 1 int, 123.7 rating
vs Den: 24-34, 303 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 125.0 rating
vs Ari: 21-28, 249 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 125.4 rating
vs Bal: 35-53, 377 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
vs LAC: 24-34, 243 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 110.3 rating
vs Oak: 14-24, 281 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 109.9 rating
vs ind: 27-41, 278 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 85.2 rating
TOT: 219-329 (66.6%), 2,728 yds, 21 td, 6 int, 105.8 rating

So yeah, he's tremendous at home (everywhere, really). When looking for a weakness, nothing really sticks out. He can make every throw. He can throw from the pocket. He can throw on the run. He can go through progressions, and he can improvise. He can run and is a great athlete, but he doesn't take crazy risks with his legs (i.e., he's not run happy - he's first and foremost a passer). He attacks both zone and man defenses. PFF graded Mahomes as the best QB in the NFL under pressure, especially on third down.

So where's the weakness? Well, there isn't really one. Part of it is Mahomes is just a generational talent. But part of it is the quality of his skill players. Hill is phenomenal. Kelce is a great receiver. And even without Kareem Hunt, they still have lots of talent in the backfield, with Damien Williams stepping in and averaging 5.1 yards per carry (a half yard more than Hunt!). Plus they have Sammy Watkins, who's pretty good too.

In their four losses, here were the scores:
L, 43-40 at NE
L, 54-51 at LAR
L, 29-28 vs LAC
L, 38-31 at Sea

So in their losses, they're still averaging 37.5 points a game. Unreal. But in their four losses, they're giving up 41.0 points a game. So you seemingly HAVE to just roll their pretty bad defense to have a chance.

One thing that's interesting to note is that in Mahomes' four worst passing games (by passer rating...admittedly not always a totally accurate measure of a QB's performance in any given game), they were all among his top 8 games with the most passes.

So perhaps taking away the run and making Mahomes throw - despite him being a GREAT passer - is actually the way to making him perform worse, as he is prone to make a few mistakes.
 

Harry Hooper

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Can the OL cope with the crowd noise and avoid pre-snap penalties and confusion on blocking assignments? A few ill-timed penalties or sacks to kill drives could sink the Pats.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Can the OL cope with the crowd noise and avoid pre-snap penalties and confusion on blocking assignments? A few ill-timed penalties or sacks to kill drives could sink the Pats.
If they pull a repeat of the Pitt game and have a pile of presnap penalties, I'm going to lose it. Especially if its WR's false starting, which is inexcusable.
 

TFP

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Can the OL cope with the crowd noise and avoid pre-snap penalties and confusion on blocking assignments? A few ill-timed penalties or sacks to kill drives could sink the Pats.
It's scheduled to be as low as -5 on Sunday in KC. I would imagine that would depress a lot of the crowd noise, as it's hard to clap when you're bundled up.