Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

[OptimusPapi]

Taken in a vacuum, sure. That's perfectly consistent with the idea that Cespedes is a somewhat above average corner outfielder, not a franchise cornerstone. Yet people here think it was a great trade and several are looking to extend the guy for $15 to $20 million a season.

To the specifics of how to make lineup next season. The plan put forward was to have a rookie with what might by the end of the winter be 200 professional at bats outside of Cuba in CF, backed up by a guy with a career OPS in the mid-500s over a full season of plate appearances. Combined with a catching tandem that is OPSing below 600 this year. Combined with a $7 million 25th man who can't hit and whose best defensive position is DH. I'd say you're going to need lots of above average contributions to compensate for that.

Third, OPS over rates SLG and underweights OBP, so naturally a professional out maker like Cespedes looks better by that metric.

If you chicks could look past the long ball, it's not like Cespedes is the team's only option in LF. Under a scenario where Castillo is in center and Betts in RF. If Victorino is healthy, it is far from clear that Cespedes would out produce a platoon of Victorino vs lefties and Nava vs. righties. And it's far from clear that Cespedes should play over Nava against righties if they're both on the team with Betts and Castillo living up to the hype.

Of course that assumes Castillo and Betts avoid the Bradley/Bogaerts syndrome. Far from clear.

Ben Cherington is the worlds bestest GM though, I'm sure he's got a plan to avoid missing the playoffs for the 5th time in 6 years in 2015. It'll be an interesting offseason.

First off last time I checked I am a guy. I also don't think that referring to woman as chicks is a bit degrading. But to your larger point I wasn't just looking at the power I was looking at the ops. Assume the lineup for next year looks something like this
Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
Cespedes
Castillo
Bogearts
Sandoval/Headley/ someone we haven't thought of
Vazquez
We have no idea what we are getting from Betts. Many players have had a good first few months in the majors and amount to nothing more then four A players, but whats the alternative? Sign or trade for an aging veteran and not give the rookies a shot? Pedroia is a career 810 ops player. It is a concern how much he seems to have decline this year. I personally think it was due to injury but there is also the possibility this is the beginning of a long decline. So do we trade for Chase Utley and stash him in the minors in case of decline to Pedroia? Ortiz has been good for an ops in the 800 to 900 and there really is no back up option. Whoever suggested Napoli is a part time player I would love what you are smoking. Napoli should be good for an ops right around 800. Cespedes will be in the 750 to 800 range. Bogearts and castillo are both question marks, but in the case of the former he is only 21 and deserves more then a full season to show what he can do. In the case of the latter its imperative the Sox are willing to take a shot on international players in order to be competitive and not turn into the yankees. As for Vazquez if he can put up a 700 ops he will be massively valuable when it is combine with his defense. As for backups We we have Swihart, Checchini, Marrero, Holt, WMB, JBJ, and possibly Nava or Victorino. That lineup is not just effective if it is combine with decent pitching but we also have pretty good depth. Of course there are questions. There is always going to be questions but the pure bad luck the team experience this year will hopefully not repeat itself.

 

[snowmanny]

Taken in a vacuum, sure. That's perfectly consistent with the idea that Cespedes is a somewhat above average corner outfielder, not a franchise cornerstone. Yet people here think it was a great trade and several are looking to extend the guy for $15 to $20 million a season.

To the specifics of how to make lineup next season. The plan put forward was to have a rookie with what might by the end of the winter be 200 professional at bats outside of Cuba in CF, backed up by a guy with a career OPS in the mid-500s over a full season of plate appearances. Combined with a catching tandem that is OPSing below 600 this year. Combined with a $7 million 25th man who can't hit and whose best defensive position is DH. I'd say you're going to need lots of above average contributions to compensate for that.

Third, OPS over rates SLG and underweights OBP, so naturally a professional out maker like Cespedes looks better by that metric.

If you chicks could look past the long ball, it's not like Cespedes is the team's only option in LF. Under a scenario where Castillo is in center and Betts in RF. If Victorino is healthy, it is far from clear that Cespedes would out produce a platoon of Victorino vs lefties and Nava vs. righties. And it's far from clear that Cespedes should play over Nava against righties if they're both on the team with Betts and Castillo living up to the hype.

Of course that assumes Castillo and Betts avoid the Bradley/Bogaerts syndrome. Far from clear.

Ben Cherington is the worlds bestest GM though, I'm sure he's got a plan to avoid missing the playoffs for the 5th time in 6 years in 2015. It'll be an interesting offseason.

 
It is interesting, because of the seven players on the roster who might be considered in play to be 2015 Red Sox outfielders Cespedes probably has the highest median predicted performance level for 2015 (I'd rank them Cespedes, Betts, Victorino, Castillo, Bradley, Nava, Craig) but this and his favorable contract make him the most tradable (apart from Betts). It wouldn't surprise me if he was gone.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
It is interesting, because of the seven players on the roster who might be considered in play to be 2015 Red Sox outfielders Cespedes probably has the highest median predicted performance level for 2015 (I'd rank them Cespedes, Betts, Victorino, Castillo, Bradley, Nava, Craig) but this and his favorable contract make him the most tradable (apart from Betts). It wouldn't surprise me if he was gone.

For protection for Ortiz, I think Cespedes is very important. Even if Ortiz wasn't here, I'd keep him for his power. Ben can't afford to risk having another lousy offensive club.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Taken in a vacuum, sure. That's perfectly consistent with the idea that Cespedes is a somewhat above average corner outfielder, not a franchise cornerstone. Yet people here think it was a great trade and several are looking to extend the guy for $15 to $20 million a season.

To the specifics of how to make lineup next season. The plan put forward was to have a rookie with what might by the end of the winter be 200 professional at bats outside of Cuba in CF, backed up by a guy with a career OPS in the mid-500s over a full season of plate appearances. Combined with a catching tandem that is OPSing below 600 this year. Combined with a $7 million 25th man who can't hit and whose best defensive position is DH. I'd say you're going to need lots of above average contributions to compensate for that.

Third, OPS over rates SLG and underweights OBP, so naturally a professional out maker like Cespedes looks better by that metric.

 
2014 average AL OBP by batting order position:
327, 319, 344, 330, 315, 301, 304, 311, 286
 
Ortiz (356), Napoli (370), Cespedes (300) will be a well above average 3-4-5. You said Cespedes needs to be not treated like a middle of the order bat, maybe you could produce evidence to support that? The A's batted him lower than 5th seven times.  There are pieces of the lineup that need fixing - Cespedes ain't one of them.
 

 
 
What's the average OPS by batting order position of playoff teams?

 
I don't know, but the teams in the hunt right now are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 10th and 12th in runs scored, so I don't know why that's material. You're welcome to do your own homework, though, if you think that's a better metric by which we judge Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the lineup as a major problem for Cherington to solve this winter.

 

[Plympton91]

And the average OPS for an AL LFer is .725 this season. 

So they traded John Lester for the privilege of paying $14 million for slightly above average production in LF when they had a perfectly good platoon of Nava and Gomes providing slightly above average production in LF (with a much higher OBP) for less than half that. But, God forbid we give Lester more than 4 years, that might possibly perhaps result in an overpayment 5 years from now. Much better to definitely overpay for a LF now than maybe possibly perhaps overpay for a semi-ace pitcher later, I guess.

When people quote these, " but the average , blah blah blah" stats at me, I think of the old parental cliche, "if your friends all jumped off a bridge would you follow them?"

Or a better way of saying it would be, " What's the average team's payroll?"

 

[OptimusPapi]

So they traded John Lester for the privilege of paying $14 million for slightly above average production in LF when they had a perfectly good platoon of Nava and Gomes providing slightly above average production in LF (with a much higher OBP) for less than half that. But, God forbid we give Lester more than 4 years, that might possibly perhaps result in an overpayment 5 years from now. Much better to definitely overpay for a LF now than maybe possibly perhaps overpay for a semi-ace pitcher later, I guess.

When people quote these, " but the average , blah blah blah" stats at me, I think of the old parental cliche, "if your friends all jumped off a bridge would you follow them?"

Or a better way of saying it would be, " What's the average team's payroll?"

I agree with Plympton91. BC and co need to stop worrying about the future. All they should care about is the present year. And statistics and science are stupid. What have they ever done for humanity?

 

[OptimusPapi]

Stupid phone

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't think Cespedes will end up being "the no. 5 hitter"... I think more likely they will bring in some 3rd baseman through trade they will be more of a middle lineup threat and Cespedes will end up around 7.  Hell.... if Xander keeps hitting like he's been hitting recently he'd end up a great no. 5 lineup guy.
 
Mookie
Dustin
Ortiz
Nap
3rd base FA?
X
Cespedes
Castillo
Vaz

 

[Plympton91]

 
2014 average AL OBP by batting order position:
327, 319, 344, 330, 315, 301, 304, 311, 286
 
Ortiz (356), Napoli (370), Cespedes (300) will be a well above average 3-4-5. You said Cespedes needs to be not treated like a middle of the order bat, maybe you could produce evidence to support that? The A's batted him lower than 5th seven times.  There are pieces of the lineup that need fixing - Cespedes ain't one of them.
 .

Of course, they can pay $14 million for a slightly above average OPS with a below 300 OBP. They are the best front office in major league history after all. Two last place finishes in the past 3 years notwithstanding, there's no reason to question anything at all.

I might point out that Cespedes OPS is 722 with Boston, that Fenway is a better hitters park than Oakland, and that after the first half of his rookie year he's been nothing special. I'd also point out that Billy Beane was the guy the Red Sox initially wanted to hire, with good reason. The last time he made a trade with the Red Sox, they got Andrew Bailey.

 

[Plympton91]

I don't think Cespedes will end up being "the no. 5 hitter"... I think more likely they will bring in some 3rd baseman through trade they will be more of a middle lineup threat and Cespedes will end up around 7.  Hell.... if Xander keeps hitting like he's been hitting recently he'd end up a great no. 5 lineup guy.
 
Mookie
Dustin
Ortiz
Nap
3rd base FA?
X
Cespedes
Castillo
Vaz

This is my hope as well. Continued awesomeness from Betts combined with a healthy Pedroia and a MLE consistent Bogaerts should push Cespedes down. And if Betts and Castillo hit while Nava remains on the roster, the appropriate role for Cespedes is Nava's platoon partner. Cespedes is a great guy to have given all the uncertainty around the rest of the roster, but if things work out well they've got to be willing to hit him lower in the order and sit him and his sub 300 OBP on the bench against righties.

 

[Harry Hooper]

This is my hope as well. Continued awesomeness from Betts combined with a healthy Pedroia and a MLE consistent Bogaerts should push Cespedes down. And if Betts and Castillo hit while Nava remains on the roster, the appropriate role for Cespedes is Nava's platoon partner. Cespedes is a great guy to have given all the uncertainty around the rest of the roster, but if things work out well they've got to be willing to hit him lower in the order and sit him and his sub 300 OBP on the bench against righties.

 
 
That will go over well with the Cespedes camp in his salary-drive season.

 

[LostinNJ]

So they traded John Lester for the privilege of paying $14 million for slightly above average production in LF when they had a perfectly good platoon of Nava and Gomes providing slightly above average production in LF (with a much higher OBP) for less than half that. But, God forbid we give Lester more than 4 years, that might possibly perhaps result in an overpayment 5 years from now. Much better to definitely overpay for a LF now than maybe possibly perhaps overpay for a semi-ace pitcher later, I guess.

They traded Lester and Gomes for a guy with some value and a draft pick, and then they can still sign Lester if they want. I don't see what's to gripe about. If they'd let them walk, all they'd have is a draft pick.

 

[Plympton91]

They traded Lester and Gomes for a guy with some value and a draft pick, and then they can still sign Lester if they want. I don't see what's to gripe about. If they'd let them walk, all they'd have is a draft pick.

I wonder if they could have gotten Matt Kemp instead. Looks like the Dodgers knew what they were doing in not selling low, but John Lester wouldn't be selling low.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
 
That will go over well with the Cespedes camp in his salary-drive season.

Yeah about as well as dropping him to 7th in the order vs lefties.

 

[LostinNJ]

I wonder if they could have gotten Matt Kemp instead. Looks like the Dodgers knew what they were doing in not selling low, but John Lester wouldn't be selling low.

Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu . . . the Dodgers didn't need Lester more than Kemp.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I wonder if they could have gotten Matt Kemp instead. Looks like the Dodgers knew what they were doing in not selling low, but John Lester wouldn't be selling low.

Who's John Lester?

 

[Rasputin]

 
 
The issue is there's too many prospects approaching their "Sell By" dates not to pursue multiple trades.

 
Like who?
 
I think we're all assuming RDLR is in the 2015 and Workman is in the 2015 bullpen. That pretty much means Webster is the only pitcher with two years at AAA and it's entirely possible that the Sox only bring in one starter and go with a rotation of X, Buchholz, RDLR, Kelly, Webster, and if they don't, he's the first guy they tab when injuries hit.

 

[nvalvo]

They traded Lester and Gomes for a guy with some value and a draft pick, and then they can still sign Lester if they want. I don't see what's to gripe about. If they'd let them walk, all they'd have is a draft pick.

 
Except there is no draft pick. Cespedes' contract calls for him to be released after four years. 

 

[soxhop411]

 
Except there is no draft pick. Cespedes' contract calls for him to be released after four years. 

We got a comp round B pick from the A's I believe.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Of course, they can pay $14 million for a slightly above average OPS with a below 300 OBP. They are the best front office in major league history after all. Two last place finishes in the past 3 years notwithstanding, there's no reason to question anything at all.

I might point out that Cespedes OPS is 722 with Boston, that Fenway is a better hitters park than Oakland, and that after the first half of his rookie year he's been nothing special. I'd also point out that Billy Beane was the guy the Red Sox initially wanted to hire, with good reason. The last time he made a trade with the Red Sox, they got Andrew Bailey.

 
You have gone completely off the rails. The Red Sox didn't need additional outfield depth because they had Nava and Gomes? You mean the LF platoon that was part of this year's offense? The one that, had they followed a perfect L/R platoon (since Farrell seems pretty likely to start doing that) could have had a 116 OPS+ (1 pt lower than Cespedes' career)? Sure maybe that's what the front office should aim for, but what happens if one of them gets hurt and they're forced to lose the platoon and Nava has to start hitting against lefties? When did that get to be enough OF depth for you?
 
I guess we might also point out that Jonny Gomes' OPS is 549 with Oakland, that he's going to be 34 next year, and that he's had an above average OPS twice since 2009. Billy Beane must be the best GM in the game to have won the trade deadline so commandingly like he did. The A's have looked great since August 1. 
 
There are plenty of places in the lineup the Red Sox need to upgrade. Cespedes is one of the top 50 hitters in the majors and you preferred a Nava/Gomes platoon. 

 

[CaskNFappin]

Maybe it's a bit of an intangible, but "striking fear into the pitcher's heart" is something Cespedes has in spades over Nava and/or Gomes.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
You have gone completely off the rails. The Red Sox didn't need additional outfield depth because they had Nava and Gomes? You mean the LF platoon that was part of this year's offense? The one that, had they followed a perfect L/R platoon (since Farrell seems pretty likely to start doing that) could have had a 116 OPS+ (1 pt lower than Cespedes' career)? Sure maybe that's what the front office should aim for, but what happens if one of them gets hurt and they're forced to lose the platoon and Nava has to start hitting against lefties? When did that get to be enough OF depth for you?
  

Bryce Brentz? OPS vs LHP in minors.....

2014 - 1.039
2013 - .786
2012 - .997
2011 - .970

 

[Sprowl]

Bryce Brentz? OPS vs LHP in minors.....

2014 - 1.039
2013 - .786
2012 - .997
2011 - .970

 
It's true. Brentz' hamstring injury cost him a lost year and the Red Sox valuable outfield depth. Brentz was Victorino's backup.

 

[Plympton91]

 
You have gone completely off the rails. The Red Sox didn't need additional outfield depth because they had Nava and Gomes? You mean the LF platoon that was part of this year's offense? The one that, had they followed a perfect L/R platoon (since Farrell seems pretty likely to start doing that) could have had a 116 OPS+ (1 pt lower than Cespedes' career)? Sure maybe that's what the front office should aim for, but what happens if one of them gets hurt and they're forced to lose the platoon and Nava has to start hitting against lefties? When did that get to be enough OF depth for you?
 
n. 

You're partly right about going off the rails. I have gone too far from my initial point that Cespedes is no Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz, or even a healthy Allen Craig, down to arguing to replace him outright in the lineup.

I'm glad he's here limiting downside risk in 2015. To that extent I agree the team has obvious holes to fill that demand much more attention than upgrading Cespedes. But I wouldn't be looking to extend him and his three year decline in OPS for 4 more years at $15+ million per. And, I wouldn't hesitate to play "good Nava," if he shows up in 2015, over him pretty regularly against righties.

 

[MakMan44]

Cespedes has a .780 OPS against RHP this season. Nava's around that too, but I bring up the point because Cespedes really isn't an obvious platoon candidate like you make him out to be. 

 

[JakeRae]

So, this is a bit of a crazy concept, but how would people feel about trying to work out a Cespedes for Beltre swap/upgrade? This would solve the positional balance issues on the roster (although not the handedness issues) and would be an upgrade in talent. Cespedes and Beltre fill similar lineup roles but Beltre adds OBP ability to his power. This would also put a player who is, probably, still a plus defensive 3B next to Bogaerts, which probably has extra value that traditional views of value might not capture.
 
The lineup, in this scenario, would look something like:
 
Betts (CF/LF)
Pedroia (2B)
Beltre (3B)
Ortiz (DH)
Napoli (1B)
Bogaerts (SS) 
Castillo (RF/CF)
Victorino (RF)
Vazquez (C)
 
Bench:
Holt
Craig
Nava
Catcher
 
I'm not sure exactly what would need to be added to Cespedes to make this work, but I'd think Middlebrooks and one of our MLB-ready pitchers might be a good starting point. (Middlebrooks probably still has some trade value as a reclamation project but a second pitcher would quite possibly be necessary.) In this scenario, Nava platoons with Victorino when he is healthy, Craig when Victorino isn't, and someone like Brentz or Hassan if neither is. Bradley provides depth while he tries to find himself in AAA. The infield has solid depth in Marrerro and Cecchini plus the ability of Betts to move back into the infield midseason.
 
I get that people like Cespedes, and this isn't an anti-Cespedes proposal but a pro-Beltre one coupled with trying to think outside the box as to ways to acquire him without selling the farm. 

 

[MakMan44]

I think it's an interesting idea, actually. I don't think it'll actually happen but I agree that it's a pretty good idea. 

 

[LostinNJ]

Beltre would be a terrific solution to a big problem, and Middlebrooks is from Texas, so, um, he'll probably play better there. I don't know if the Rangers wold be interested in Cespedes, but there is a good deal for both teams here somehow.

 

[Plympton91]

Cespedes has a .780 OPS against RHP this season. Nava's around that too, but I bring up the point because Cespedes really isn't an obvious platoon candidate like you make him out to be. 

Why are people continuing to focus on OPS when it is universally accepted that it over weights slugging and Cespedes has an OBP that is borderline unacceptable?

 

[jhogan88]

The team needs to find a FA 3B and with all the financial resources available we could use a top of the rotation starter obviously. Why not pay for two of the high end starters? What I would like to see to start 2015:
 
1. Betts--RF
2. Pedroia--2B
3. Ortiz--DH
4. Yoenis--LF
5. Napoli--1B
6. Hanley Ramirez--3B
7. Xander--SS
8. Castillo--CF 
9. Vazquez--C
 
Lester
Shields
Buchholz
Kelly
RDLR
 
We have the money, why not go out and get our ace back, splurge on Shields, who can eat innings at the very least as his age gets up there, and bring back Hanley (dude has injury concerns but he can actually hit).
 
Time to spend some money!

 

[Rasputin]

The team needs to find a FA 3B and with all the financial resources available we could use a top of the rotation starter obviously. Why not pay for two of the high end starters? What I would like to see to start 2015:
 
1. Betts--RF
2. Pedroia--2B
3. Ortiz--DH
4. Yoenis--LF
5. Napoli--1B
6. Hanley Ramirez--3B
7. Xander--SS
8. Castillo--CF 
9. Vazquez--C
 
Lester
Shields
Buchholz
Kelly
RDLR
 
We have the money, why not go out and get our ace back, splurge on Shields, who can eat innings at the very least as his age gets up there, and bring back Hanley (dude has injury concerns but he can actually hit).
 
Time to spend some money!

 
And I thought I was being ridiculous suggesting we could get both Lester and Shields.
 
You really think this team is going to spend a lot of money to lock up a third baseman for a long time when the shortstop should probably be playing third already?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Agree completely with Grey Eagle. Is there team with a bottom five farms system and a player the Red Sox need? That would be a match where the Red Sox might be able to make a case for quantity over quality. Can you trade the Reds Coyle, Renaudo, Johnson, and Britton for one of their 4 free agent to be pitchers?

If the Phillies aren't bottom 5 they are pretty damn close. The issue is Ruben Amaro. A normal rebuilding franchise would want to deal someone like Hamels for 1 or 2 top prospects. Some type of deal like Owens and Swihart or Owens and Johnson etc...the problem here is that with Amaro that's the price for Marlon Byrd! In order to get Hamels or Lee or maybe even Papelbon any team will have to give up 4 top prospects! Which is why the Phillies are in the situation they are in now.

Marlins have a solid system but in some ways it mirrors the Sox with the emphasis on pitching as opposed to power bats. Braves do not have a top 10 system as guys like Teheran Wood Heyward all graduated in the last few years. I believe Bethancourt is probably the top prospect in that system now.

Those are three often talked about trade partners and the only one Boston will have a reasonable chance of making a deal with is Atlanta.

The team needs to find a FA 3B and with all the financial resources available we could use a top of the rotation starter obviously. Why not pay for two of the high end starters? What I would like to see to start 2015:
 
1. Betts--RF
2. Pedroia--2B
3. Ortiz--DH
4. Yoenis--LF
5. Napoli--1B
6. Hanley Ramirez--3B
7. Xander--SS
8. Castillo--CF 
9. Vazquez--C
 
Lester
Shields
Buchholz
Kelly
RDLR
 
We have the money, why not go out and get our ace back, splurge on Shields, who can eat innings at the very least as his age gets up there, and bring back Hanley (dude has injury concerns but he can actually hit).
 
Time to spend some money!

No thanks on Hanley. If for whatever reason the Rangers want to move Beltre though I would welcome him back with open arms! Just don't pat him on the head. I also like Shields but not for the 20 million and years he will command. I mean hell if you're going to sign a free agent SP then Lester makes the most sense. No draft compensation and knows what it takes to pitch here. I wouldn't rule out the Sox going nuts and bringing in Mad Max I just hope that if they do go that route that they don't give him a 7 year deal.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yeah about as well as dropping him to 7th in the order vs lefties.

I think his general offensive skills would determine where he ends up in the lineup and I can't imagine that his agent would get upset if he was hitting .800 but hitting 7th or 8th if there was a bunch of .850 OPS hitters in front of him....

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The Rangers best prospect is a 3B. They are locked into Fielder at 1B. What interest would they have in WMB except if it was a straight salary dump?

I'd be all for bringing Beltre back but I don't think Wombat is doing much for that cause.

Obvious solution for the Rangers is to turn Fielder into what he should be:  a DH!  And that allows them to turn WMB into a first baseman, no?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Obvious solution for the Rangers is to turn Fielder into what he should be:  a DH!  And that allows them to turn WMB into a first baseman, no?

Except he cant hit well enough to be a SS

 

[MakMan44]

Why are people continuing to focus on OPS when it is universally accepted that it over weights slugging and Cespedes has an OBP that is borderline unacceptable?

Because you yourself went on a very long tangent in another thread about how the Red Sox should have an above average player by OPS at every position? 
 
You tend to shift your priorities from thread to thread, and it makes it very hard to have a productive conversation with you.
 
EDIT: FWIW, his .310 OBP against RHP isn't that far off the mark. AL LF average is .320, but that's against all pitching. I think you take a little bit below average OBP when his SLG is nearly .070 points higher than the AL LF average. 
 
EDIT2:And again, I only bring all this up because I'm just pointing out that Cespedes isn't an obvious platoon candidate. 

 

[jhogan88]

 
And I thought I was being ridiculous suggesting we could get both Lester and Shields.
 
You really think this team is going to spend a lot of money to lock up a third baseman for a long time when the shortstop should probably be playing third already?

Dont get me wrong, Shields would be expensive; however, given current market values for top end talent, why not shift our collective "fiscal responsibility" mindset so we can actually build a respectable rotation? Im not sure any of our prospects' ceilings even project them as a #1 or #2 starter. Im beginning to get concerned we are so focused on pinching pennies we are forgetting that you need pitching to compete in this league and you have to pay for it.

My argument for Hanley is less thought out than my argument for signing two top FA pitchers--just really curious what it feels like to have actual production from our third baseman.

If signing guys like Shane for 3/39, Drew for 10, or even Rusney for 72.5 is the organizations approach, why cant we justify dropping the whole cheap, cost control act to get great pitching? You may be overpaying once Lester and Shields reach their mid to late 30s--why not leverage younger arms at that point in time? Id rather overpay for ace starters than run Webster, Workmam, RDLR, anthony or Barnes out there just hoping one can consistently shore up the 5th spot.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think his general offensive skills would determine where he ends up in the lineup and I can't imagine that his agent would get upset if he was hitting .800 but hitting 7th or 8th if there was a bunch of .850 OPS hitters in front of him....

I don't disagree if this were actually true and not something you just dreamed up.....now where are all these .850 OPS hitters coming from because the lineup I was referring to had a 21-year old .650 guy and a fictitious "free agent 3b" who many are assuming to be an obese .750 OPS player pushing Cespedes down in the lineup?

 

[Max Power]

Why are people continuing to focus on OPS when it is universally accepted that it over weights slugging and Cespedes has an OBP that is borderline unacceptable?

 
The Red Sox as a team are last in the league in runs scored, last in slugging, and a bit below average in OBP. It's very difficult to score runs when you need three straight hits to do it. Trading some OBP at a couple lineup positions for a lot of SLG would almost certainly make the lineup more productive.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
The Red Sox as a team are last in the league in runs scored, last in slugging, and a bit below average in OBP. It's very difficult to score runs when you need three straight hits to do it. Trading some OBP at a couple lineup positions for a lot of SLG would almost certainly make the lineup more productive.

 
That entirely depends on how much OBP you're trading for how much slugging.  In no lineup is 100 points of slugging better than 100 points of OBP.  
 
That being said, I don't see any way Cespedes is here next year and sitting against RHP.  For his career he is an above average hitter against RHP.  It would be a complete waste to keep him and start him on the bench 100 games a year. 

 

[lexrageorge]

I'm not convinced it's "universally accepted" that OPS is less reliable than OBP.   But, as has been stated, Cespedes is hardly the automatic out against RHP's that Nava is against LHP's.  And Cespedes is regarded as a better fielder.  Seems like a reasonable compromise to sacrifice some OBP points to have better defense and lineup flexibility.  
 
One of them is likely traded in any event.  At this point in time, I'm basically agnostic as to who gets traded among those two; it really depends how the rest of the lineup looks.  

 

[Plympton91]

OPS overweights SLG and underweights OBP; that's different from saying OBP is superior to OPS. It means that for high SLG, very low OBP players you need a different metric.

I think Nava could easily fit as a LH 4th OF and backup 1B on this team. It might be his best role actually. But the problem is that they've again imported a "name" player who used to be good and clogs up the 25 man roster. The most likely scenario is that they keep Craig and his guaranteed contract to be the 2015 version of Sizemore (now down to .256 w/PHI as babip normalizes).

 

[The Celtbot]

What are people's opinion on Ceccini?  Will we package him off for a starter?

 

[Rasputin]

What are people's opinion on Ceccini?  Will we package him off for a starter?

 
Are people supposed to be clairvoyant now?
 
He's a good prospect who had a bad season. At his best, he's probably not going to have the kind of power we want from a corner infielder and he's really not all that good at the fielding thing anyway so the best thing that we can hope for from him is to be a contributing player on a good team.
 
It just so happens that the Sox want to be a good team in 2015 and they have a hole at third base.
 
I'd kinda like to keep him.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What are people's opinion on Ceccini?  Will we package him off for a starter?

He strikes me as a AAAA type.  I don't think he's in the Sox future and he needs another season at AAA to rebound his value.

 

[seantoo]

He strikes me as a AAAA type.  I don't think he's in the Sox future and he needs another season at AAA to rebound his value.

 Based on what exactly? There really isn't anything to base that on. He's raked through the minors until AAA and even then he has finished strong after experiencing his first professional struggles.

 

[gryoung]

What about Clay B?   He continues to be inconsistent.  He has great stuff, but once someone gets on 1st he starts to unravel.  For every stretch where he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy, there are more where he looks like a Jekyl or Hyde type.
 
Do the Sox move him in the offseason?

 

[MakMan44]

Those are all things other teams know, so they're going to price him accordingly. It doesn't make sense to move him for pennies, as his salary is entirely reasonable for next season. As of right now, I don't see any way the Sox move him. 

 

[LeoCarrillo]

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have ... a No. 3 starter.
 
At least for planning purposes. If he gives you more, great. If he gives you less, at least you weren't planning on him as a 1 or 1A and are only paying him $12M (or less than "Dempster money").

 

[gammoseditor]

What about Clay B?   He continues to be inconsistent.  He has great stuff, but once someone gets on 1st he starts to unravel.  For every stretch where he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy, there are more where he looks like a Jekyl or Hyde type.
 
Do the Sox move him in the offseason?

 
That entirely depends on what they can get for him.  I think one trade that works is him, Cespedes, and a lesser third piece for Cole Hamels.  Bud I think plan A for an ace is to trade for either Cueto or Sale.