Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Obviously there is lots of risk with an extension too but you don't get many chances to sign Top 15-20 pitchers long-term at market or market-friendly rates at age 27.
Is Latos a top 15-20 pitcher, though? Depends on what metric you use.
Among 182 qualifying starters over his five full seasons in the majors:
SIERA: 29th
FIP-: 30th
xFIP-: 42nd
ERA-: 35th
It's true he's been 19th in fWAR, but that's partly because he's been pitching for all five of those years, and not everybody else on the list has been. His fWAR rank season by season has been:
2014: did not qualify
2013: 14th
2012: 32nd
2011: 38th
2010: 25th
So he's been a top-15 pitcher exactly once. Most of the time, by most measures, he's a tier-two guy, somewhere in the 20-to-40 range.