Xander Bogaerts and patience

[soxhop411]

ALEX SPEIER writes about the amount of patience required between the Sox and  Xander Bogaerts in regards to his struggles at the plate
 
SEARCHING FOR THE X-FACTOR: The Red Sox need Xander Bogaerts to hit this year or else they could face some undesired dilemmas with the 22-year-old. After just two games, the team is betraying subtle signs of anxiety about a player for whom patience is both required but also something other than endless.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/04/09/only-two-games-but-xander-bogaerts-struggles-hard-overlook/hrlVBFe89GqvKkVotEUDKK/story.html

 

[nattysez]

We can debate all day whether the position change impacted him last year, but the fact is that X started last year as the starting SS, got moved to 3b, then got moved back to SS.  Now, AFTER TWO GAMES, they are messing with him again -- talking about him being too anxious and that he's being moved down in the order because of this.  I really hope they stick him in the 8-hole and leave him there until June.  Continuing to jerk him around in one way or another is bad for his development and mental state.  Enough already. 

 

[luckysox]

I think the "It's Only Two Games..." tells the story right now. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We can debate all day whether the position change impacted him last year, but the fact is that X started last year as the starting SS, got moved to 3b, then got moved back to SS.  Now, AFTER TWO GAMES, they are messing with him again -- talking about him being too anxious and that he's being moved down in the order because of this.  I really hope they stick him in the 8-hole and leave him there until June.  Continuing to jerk him around in one way or another is bad for his development and mental state.  Enough already. 

 
I think bumping him down one spot from one game to the next, with the pitcher hitting and two player changes from game 1 (Ortiz and Victorino down, Nap and Nava in)...thus the overall dynamic of the lineup was different...is nothing to read into whatsoever.

 

[Al Zarilla]

OK, I'll establish the other side of the argument. I think you could move Mookie, for example, anywhere in the lineup and he'd play the same. Bogaerts has to just concentrate on hitting (and fielding, etc.). He's lucky to be starting on a prime franchise team with devoted fans, etc. at the age of 22. In fact, has it come out that he gets frustrated when he gets jacked around? I think he did say something last year. Just concentrate on your game, kid. 
 
I see from Lucky's and Red's posts there's already another side anyway. In the old days, you'd say "fake edit". 

 

[nattysez]

 
I think bumping him down one spot from one game to the next, with the pitcher hitting and two player changes from game 1 (Ortiz and Victorino down, Nap and Nava in)...thus the overall dynamic of the lineup was different...is nothing to read into whatsoever.

 
I think you should read the linked article, where Farrell makes a comment along the lines of "the batter's performance dictates where he hits" (I'd provide the exact quote, but the article is not accessible to me anymore) as a means of explaining why AFTER ONE GAME X was moved down in the order.  

 

[curly2]

Quote from Chili Davis in the story.
 
 

“He’s still a little jumpy, but not as bad [as in the spring],” said Davis. “The jumpiness is not really bad. It’s just when he goes to land, there’s a little jar that sometimes I think might speed the ball up and give it a little life that I don’t think it has. But it doesn’t bother him. He says he sees the ball well. I’m just trying to help him be more precise when he makes contact. … It’s just something that if we catch it now, take care of it – we tried to do it throughout the spring, it’s going to help him have a much better year offensively.”

 
I think Davis knows he has a project on his hands, and I think he can really help Xander. It helps that, besides Mookies, the Sox have a veteran lineup, so Chili will have a lot of time to work with Xander while others guys don't need much instruction.
 
I still think having one big game would help Xander immensely. It doesn't have to be a Fred Lynn 5-for-6 with 3 homers and 10 RBI game (showing my age here), but a 4-hit or 4-RBI game -- neither or which he's ever had -- might do wonders for him.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I think you should read the linked article, where Farrell makes a comment along the lines of "the batter's performance dictates where he hits" (I'd provide the exact quote, but the article is not accessible to me anymore) as a means of explaining why AFTER ONE GAME X was moved down in the order.  

 
I read the article, and I heard Farrell make those comments during the pre-game show yesterday.  I still don't think there's much to read into, and I really don't think moving X down one spot in the order in game 2 of the season means anything in the long run.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

It strikes me as indicative as a potential lack of patience with X that I find troublesome. Just let the guy be and his talent will emerge. I predict he will be batting no lower than 5th by next year.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

It is really annoying to hear people refer to him as too anxious when THEIR lineup-changing and behavior appears to be the embodiment of "too anxious."

Edit: P.S. Bases-clearing triple.

Edit 2.0: 3-4 with 3 RBI and on base four times.

 

[Sprowl]

Now OPSing 1.007 on the season. I'm embarrassed for Speier, who oughta know better than write this kinda reactionary crap.

 

[Rice4HOF]

 
I still think having one big game would help Xander immensely. It doesn't have to be a Fred Lynn 5-for-6 with 3 homers and 10 RBI game (showing my age here), but a 4-hit or 4-RBI game -- neither or which he's ever had -- might do wonders for him.

How about a 3-hit 3-RBI game?

 

[charlieoscar]

Now OPSing 1.007 on the season. I'm embarrassed for Speier, who oughta know better than write this kinda reactionary crap.

 
1.007? What's that? Based on 13 PA?

 

[Adrian's Dome]

 
1.007? What's that? Based on 13 PA?

Reactionary response to a reactionary article/thread.

Can we please wait for a larger sample size when it comes to Xander?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I think you're missing the point.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

Not to be a debbie downer but that triple wasn't exactly a rope. It was fortunately placed and slightly misplayed. I'm as high on X as anyone, and still view him as a future star, but this game (and any single game) doesn't say much of anything. Looking forward to watching him develop this season.

 

[Sprowl]

1.007? What's that? Based on 13 PA?

 
It's based on 4 more PA than Speier's freakout piece, and is therefore 1.44 times more reliable.   :c070:
 

I think you're missing the point.

 
Thank you. I thought the oughta and kinda woulda given it away. In the future I'll use more emoticons.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

 
It's based on 4 more PA than Speier's freakout piece, and is therefore 1.44 times more reliable.   :c070:
 
 
Thank you. I thought the oughta and kinda woulda given it away. In the future I'll use more emoticons.

We understood. I'm just irritated that articles as such are popping up about a player the same age as a lot of prospects in AA. Patience isn't the forte of your average fans (and writers,) I suppose.

 

[The Filthy One]

I'd like to see a few games where he's not wearing a sock on his head before we make any real judgements about what he's going to do this year.

 

[dbn]

Oh please, he has ONE good game at the plate (with a lucky triple!!!) and people think he still has a chance to be a valuable piece to the future of the Boston Red Sox? He's already one year removed from his 21-year old season and still hasn't proven he has the gentle eyes necessary to play SS in the AL East.

 

[curly2]

How about a 3-hit 3-RBI game?

 
That's not bad. 

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm worried about Mookie now.  After a great opening day he looks lost!  Remember JBJ's opening day 2 seasons ago!??!?!?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Drop. Mookie. To. Eighth. (It totally worked with Xander! He's roping TRIPLES now!)

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

How about a 3-hit 3-RBI game?

 
Maybe he just prefers hitting 8th?

 

[grimshaw]

It is an odd article given Speier's spotless track record, but Bogaerts hasn't really been driving the ball consistently since the first few games of spring training.
It's nice to see him trying to go opposite field, and I think he'll be a stud but the scout's observations are matching what we're seeing.
 
Still - let the damn kid play.

 

[YouDownWithOBP?]

I was more impressed with his last AB then anything else yesterday. Was down 0-2 to the lefty (forget the name) throwing 96. Gets an outside fastball, while high in the zone it was still a tough pitch at that speed, and takes it the other way into right field for a hit. He didn't pull off and ground to short, didn't swing thru it like he did vrs Harang. He stayed back and went oppo. Good sign IMO.

 

[drbretto]

I don't have a problem with moving him to 8th, or with Farrell's comments. I guess I see them differently and I fill in different blanks for how the conversation went down in the clubhouse. If he's telling Bogaerts that he's seeing him looking lost at the plate so he's going to bump him down in the order so he can relax and focus on just playing, not trying to carry the team, then this whole thing is a non-issue. That line about people putting themselves in in the batting order based on how they're hitting is just the truth.
 
Xander isn't a kid anymore. He's not a prospect, either, and he doesn't need to be coddled. He responded positively to it, too. He looked like a different player from the start of the game to the end of it and sometimes all it takes is a few key bloops to get the confidence back up. 

 

[Max Venerable]

I don't have any worries about Xander at the moment.  This lineup (and bench) is so deep that he doesn't need to be a stud to make a difference, and as a SS the bar to clear to be a plus player at the position is very low, assuming he can provide average defense.  All the hand wringing about X not living up to the hype of a generational bat, at least in the short term, should have died down when we added Hanley and Sandoval.  With those two and Betts added to our prior core, X should be batting low in the order and taking things in stride.  If he has a smattering of days like he had last night, he's going to be a great boost to our offense, no pressure this year to be an All-Star (though I wouldn't rule it out that he can be one).

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Xander isn't a kid anymore. He's not a prospect, either, and he doesn't need to be coddled. He responded positively to it, too. He looked like a different player from the start of the game to the end of it and sometimes all it takes is a few key bloops to get the confidence back up. 

 
In baseball terms, he absolutely is. If he stays in the lineup all year, he is likely to become just the fourth Red Sox player since 1961 to accumulate 1000 PA at age 22.
 
I don't know that he needs to be "coddled," but we do need to temper our expectations with the realization that most players are considered to be progressing nicely if they've sniffed AAA by his age.

 

[drbretto]

That may be true, but I still feel like it's time to treat him like a regular. He doesn't need to be treated any differently. Letting him work out his kinks while batting 8th, then moving him back up once he's consistent is a perfectly justifiable move. Sooner or later, he's going to have to be in a situation where he needs to not take it personally if he gets moved down in the order. He hasn't shown any signs of being hurt by it and it seems to be paying off so far, so it's a good thing.

 

[lexrageorge]

Seems like a tempest in a teapot.  Xander struggled a bit in the spring, and the coaches saw something in his swing or approach at the plate they didn't like. So they moved him down in the order.  Seems like a very reasonable approach.  

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Seems like a tempest in a teapot.  Xander struggled a bit in the spring, and the coaches saw something in his swing or approach at the plate they didn't like. So they moved him down in the order.  Seems like a very reasonable approach.  

 
For sure it's an over-reaction...but my guess is that the Globe Sports Dept will direct Speier to write more of these "hard-hitting" pieces to fill up column space than Bradford demanded he do at WEEI.com. 
 
Sigh.

 

[Reverend]

Not to be a debbie downer but that triple wasn't exactly a rope. It was fortunately placed and slightly misplayed. 

 
I think I heard the fielder shout, "Hodor!! Hodor!!" while trying to run it down.
 
I'm a little concerned that some of the ironic and parody posts are being misplayed here. I guess it takes awhile for the board to get into mid-season form as well.

 

[joe dokes]

I don't have a problem with moving him to 8th, or with Farrell's comments. I guess I see them differently and I fill in different blanks for how the conversation went down in the clubhouse. If he's telling Bogaerts that he's seeing him looking lost at the plate so he's going to bump him down in the order so he can relax and focus on just playing, not trying to carry the team, then this whole thing is a non-issue. That line about people putting themselves in in the batting order based on how they're hitting is just the truth.
 
 

I think this is more likely and I trust Farrell to handle the interpersonal part of this.  (as opposed to, say, the guy Farrell succeeded.)
 

I'm a little concerned that some of the ironic and parody posts are being misplayed here. I guess it takes awhile for the board to get into mid-season form as well.
 

You're just overreacting a small sample size of posts.

 

[LesterFan]

FWIW, Alex Speier tweeted this out yesterday:
 
 

Alex Speier @alexspeier

The story wasn't suggesting 2 games as a sufficient sample to glimpse struggle. Instead, meant to offer window into some of the conversations happening around Bogaerts and potential dilemmas presented by the possibility of sustained struggle.

 

 
I was also surprised Alex was behind this story. He's better than this. For as "lost" as Bogaerts has looked at the plate he only struck out 6 times in spring training and walked 8 times. And so far has walked twice and struck out twice. Such small sample sizes that it's meaningless, though.

 

[gryoung]

Sox fans expected the second coming of Manny Machado with X. So far that has not happened and there is the usual Sox fan concern (panic).

 

[Granite Sox]

He's not tearing the cover off the ball, but he is laying off sliders that he was all-too-happy to lunge at last year.  I'm actually heartened by what (little) I've seen thus far.

 

[touchstone033]

I didn't read the piece the way most of you are interpreting it -- it's not just two games here, it's an entire season and spring training behind it, too. XB had issues at the plate last year that he was working through, and that work continues. Hitting mechanics are reflected by stats, but you don't always need stats to see that someone's mechanics are messed up. Obviously the coaching staff saw something in the first two games -- likely related to his previous struggles -- that concerned them. Speier's point -- as I saw it -- was that he's not going to get another full season in MLB to mature, especially if the Sox are in contention. 
 
That said, a 3-for-4 night early in the season -- even is his triple owes a debt to the Phillies' fielding -- might be the thing to give the kid confidence and to just hit the damn ball already.

 

[grimshaw]

So basically Xander, Owens, Brian Johnson and Swihart for Tulo and Rosario

 

[joyofsox]

In his 108 Stitches post today, he explained himself at length. In part:
 

1) I value the feedback – I genuinely appreciate the idea that anyone who takes the time to read something I wrote feels strongly enough to share their views. I try to respond to as many emails and tweets as I can, though given the pure volume of feedback on this subject (and the similarity of the subject matter), I figured it made sense to address many of your questions here.
 
2) I didn’t write an opinion piece, nor was I dabbling in the strange Twitter-spawned medium of hashtagged HotTakez. I reported on the dialogue that exists both within the Red Sox and elsewhere in baseball surrounding not only Bogaerts’ early search for offensive form, but also the consequences if he slumps.
 
3) Two games didn’t change the Sox’ evaluation, nor did it change anyone else’s. But after a year in which Bogaerts couldn’t extricate himself from a slump for a period of nearly three months, the Sox have to prepare for the possibility of proceeding differently than they did in 2014 – when their out-of-contention status permitted them to keep him in the lineup – if he experiences a prolonged downturn.
 
4) Team officials have to prepare for worst-case scenarios. Though it is premature to commit to Plan B or C, the sight of Bogaerts’ spring struggles at the least raised questions and acted as conversation-starters: What if he does slump again? How long can he stay in the lineup while struggling? What would it take for him to go to the minors? Are the in-house alternatives sufficient if Bogaerts isn’t what the team thinks he can be and will be?
 

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletter

 

[Rasputin]

I think everyone who took that piece as a freakout piece pretty clearly read it very wrong.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I never had an issue with Speier writing the piece. I think he's one of the best. As I stated earlier, my concern is what it may say about Farrell's lack of patience with young players.  How Xander performed last year shouldn't have any bearing on this year, until there is a decent sample size for analysis. One game is clearly not enough so I was surprised by his quotes that "the player tells you where he should bat". I guess they put more weight into Spring Training ABs than I do.

 

[drbretto]

You don't need stats, or a huge sample, to see that a player is pressing or wide-eyed and flailing at the plate. 

 

[TigerBlood]

You don't need stats, or a huge sample, to see that a player is pressing or wide-eyed and flailing at the plate. 

Maybe not, but you need stats and a large enough sample to make informed decisions. Two games of being less than a perfectly polished hitter is a very, very reasonable place for him to be.

Pedroia has gone 0-7 in the last two games with 3 Ks - worse than Xander's first two games, he's been late on some fastballs, pulling weak grounders. Where's today's article about how we're probably never going to see 2008 Pedroia again, he is probably still dealing with some wrist weakness, only 1 homer in spring training, etc.? Where's the suggestions that the team is looking into plan B for second base? Its about as valid a concern as anything with Bogaerts, but because he hit two homers in the opener he gets a pass. Sports "journalism".

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Sox fans expected the second coming of Manny Machado with X. So far that has not happened and there is the usual Sox fan concern (panic).

 
Not sure about this. From the sound of Speier's story, the "panic" is coming from the Red Sox. The "fans" (well, many of them, judging from this thread and the response Speier got) are the ones saying to take it easy.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Not sure about this. From the sound of Speier's story, the "panic" is coming from the Red Sox. The "fans" (well, many of them, judging from this thread and the response Speier got) are the ones saying to take it easy.

 
No, from the sound of Speier's story, the Sox were talking about what to do if Bogaerts continued to struggle. That's not panic, that's responsible. That's even more true when you consider the fact that the answer isn't remotely obvious.

 

[drbretto]

Maybe not, but you need stats and a large enough sample to make informed decisions. Two games of being less than a perfectly polished hitter is a very, very reasonable place for him to be.

Pedroia has gone 0-7 in the last two games with 3 Ks - worse than Xander's first two games, he's been late on some fastballs, pulling weak grounders. Where's today's article about how we're probably never going to see 2008 Pedroia again, he is probably still dealing with some wrist weakness, only 1 homer in spring training, etc.? Where's the suggestions that the team is looking into plan B for second base? Its about as valid a concern as anything with Bogaerts, but because he hit two homers in the opener he gets a pass. Sports "journalism".

 
This isn't about 2 games. It's ridiculous how many people honestly believe that it is, too. No one is giving up on him either. If anything, moving him down in the order just means they're putting him in a lower pressure situation until he's confident enough to stand on his own.
 
I'm still working on my fallacies, but isn't your whole argument basically the definition of a straw man? 

 

[joe dokes]

Maybe not, but you need stats and a large enough sample to make informed decisions. Two games of being less than a perfectly polished hitter is a very, very reasonable place for him to be.

Pedroia has gone 0-7 in the last two games with 3 Ks - worse than Xander's first two games, he's been late on some fastballs, pulling weak grounders. Where's today's article about how we're probably never going to see 2008 Pedroia again, he is probably still dealing with some wrist weakness, only 1 homer in spring training, etc.? Where's the suggestions that the team is looking into plan B for second base? Its about as valid a concern as anything with Bogaerts, but because he hit two homers in the opener he gets a pass. Sports "journalism".

 
Do you really think the decision to move him down a spot or 2 in a lineup in which he wont be batting much higher anyway was only based on 2 games?  Or isn't it more likely that Farrell and Davis (among others) think that what he's doing in those 7AB's was looking a lot like what he was doing in ST and BP and that they think taking him further away from the middle of order might take some pressure off.
 
EDIT:: I really shouldve read drbretto's.  didnt mean to pile on.

 

[TigerBlood]

 
Do you really think the decision to move him down a spot or 2 in a lineup in which he wont be batting much higher anyway was only based on 2 games?  Or isn't it more likely that Farrell and Davis (among others) think that what he's doing in those 7AB's was looking a lot like what he was doing in ST and BP and that they think taking him further away from the middle of order might take some pressure off.
 
EDIT:: I really shouldve read drbretto's.  didnt mean to pile on.

You both are misunderstanding me. I completely get that Bogaerts is a work in progress and I think dropping him was defensible and a well informed decision. I'm more just annoyed by the fact that Speier's article treats his demotion as though its a sign that management is "losing patience" with him. It feels to me like Speier is making the point that you think I am making.

 

[charlieoscar]

I thought it was decided fairly early on that Betts was going to bat lead-off with Pedroia in the second spot and the catcher ninth. That left Ortiz, Ramirez, Napoli, Sandoval in some order for 3-6, which leaves 7/8 for Victorino/Bogaerts.