X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

[Jimbodandy]

It strikes me as fairly ironic that we're having a discussion about X rebounding from a wrist injury that has been plaguing him for more than a year, driving down his slugging percentages (which were already declining), when the discourse on this website not even a month ago included an argument that Story would never play shortstop again after having his elbow repaired. I mean, even if Xander's BABIP were more like .330, you're still looking at a guy who has just turned 30, and is slugging about .420 after slugging .450 the year before that, .493 before that, and .500 before that. That's still a very good player at shortstop, but only if he sticks at shortstop for the next ten years, and only if this decline in slugging stops at around .400, which it is absolutely not guaranteed to.

Xander's wrist injury, for what it's worth, is the definition of a reoccurring injury that indicates he could be injury prone. He might not be missing time for his wrist, but the fact that he hasn't had surgery to repair it and is just "managing" it, all while his ISO numbers decline year-over-year -- that's a gigantic red flag to me. I would not bet on a rebound for him unless he gets that wrist repaired in some fashion. Getting a cortisone shot is also a red flag to me. You don't do that unless the pain is intense and you feel like surgery isn't a good option, right? I really don't know.

"Wrist injury" is a broad designation, so your inference from his not getting surgery may not be right. The reports that I've seen are that it's tendonitis, which has completely different treatment and outcome bands from say, a hamate fracture. That's not to say that it will or won't be a recurring, problematic thing. Just that it's hard to draw a lot of inferences absent a good ortho diagnosis. For example, cortisone shots are pretty standard procedure for tendonitis and are generally pretty awesome at calming things down.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Watching the Padres and Xander while in San Diego, and he appears to have put on some weight..really shows up in his face. He still seems to be quick enough at short though. Still, Ha-Seong Kim is a wizard at whatever fielding position they put him at and at some point they want to use him at short.

 

[Fishy1]

"Wrist injury" is a broad designation, so your inference from his not getting surgery may not be right. The reports that I've seen are that it's tendonitis, which has completely different treatment and outcome bands from say, a hamate fracture. That's not to say that it will or won't be a recurring, problematic thing. Just that it's hard to draw a lot of inferences absent a good ortho diagnosis. For example, cortisone shots are pretty standard procedure for tendonitis and are generally pretty awesome at calming things down.

Fair enough. I shouldn't speak with any certainty on this as I really don't have the expertise or the information. But it does seem concerning even regardless of the wrist that his slugging percentages are down year over year heading into his 30s.

 

[Archer1979]

It strikes me as fairly ironic that we're having a discussion about X rebounding from a wrist injury that has been plaguing him for more than a year, driving down his slugging percentages (which were already declining), when the discourse on this website not even a month ago included an argument that Story would never play shortstop again after having his elbow repaired. I mean, even if Xander's BABIP were more like .330, you're still looking at a guy who has just turned 30, and is slugging about .420 after slugging .450 the year before that, .493 before that, and .500 before that. That's still a very good player at shortstop, but only if he sticks at shortstop for the next ten years, and only if this decline in slugging stops at around .400, which it is absolutely not guaranteed to.

An "I told you so..." post would be so much more effective if it accurately reflected what the argument was.

To the bolded, the argument was not that he'd ever play shortstop again, but rather that counting on him to not only play shortstop, but to stay on the field, was risky. Story has been back all of twelve days and has had played better shortstop defensively than the parade of stone gloves that had been trotted out there on a regular basis this season... so far, so good. However, he is getting frequent breaks at shortstop having been pencilled in four of his eleven games at DH and is currently batting .186 largely on the strength of a 4 - 4 day against KC.

Obviously, we're all hoping he turns into peak-Nomar, and hopefully he can get settled in at the plate. Until then, the jury is still out.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Watching the Padres and Xander while in San Diego, and he appears to have put on some weight..really shows up in his face. He still seems to be quick enough at short though. Still, Ha-Seong Kim is a wizard at whatever fielding position they put him at and at some point they want to use him at short.

They should be using Kim as SS, but I think X has been pretty much what he's always been over there. Limited range, arm isn't great, but makes the plays that are hit to him. I've watched nearly every Padres game this year and he's never jumped out to me as a liability using the good old eye test.

The wrist has to be the issue at the plate though. He looks nothing like the guy we've all watched play for the Sox. A lot of weak contact (low BABIP), struggling against fastballs (a pitch he's always hit pretty well). I didn't expect the back end of the contact to work out for the Padres, but never did I expect year 1 to be so rough.

 

[Kliq]

Xander is quietly working his way back up to a more respectable season. He's up to 18 homers on the season, and his slugging is still at a disappointing .425, but he has hit .301 since the ASG and is hitting .462 in September. He's up 3.6 WAR on the season, which would have him second on the Red Sox behind Bello.

 

[jbupstate]

Xander is quietly working his way back up to a more respectable season. He's up to 18 homers on the season, and his slugging is still at a disappointing .425, but he has hit .301 since the ASG and is hitting .462 in September. He's up 3.6 WAR on the season, which would have him second on the Red Sox behind Bello.

I’m sure the Padres are rallying around his leadership.

 

[Bleedred]

Great guy, miss him a bit, but this contract will not age well and the Padres had to have expected more, a lot more, from Xander, and this is only year one.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Padres season seems inexplicable. +64 run differential but 9 games under….0-11 in extras and 6-22 in one run games is just absurd. Run differential of an 80 win team…yet they have 68 wins. Will be interesting to see what they do but this seems like one of the strangest seasons of recent memory.

 

[donutogre]

The Padres season seems inexplicable. +64 run differential but 9 games under….0-11 in extras and 6-22 in one run games is just absurd. Run differential of an 80 win team…yet they have 68 wins. Will be interesting to see what they do but this seems like one of the strangest seasons of recent memory.

It really is, and it kills me as they're my NL team (wife is from SD). Really wish they could have made some noise this year.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

$280 million just put him so far in the stratosphere, that it just kind of eliminated any serious discussion of what the Sox should or shouldn't have done.

What's surprising to me, though, is that I would have thought that the rule changes would have actually made that contract a better deal than it first appeared, while making some of the closer to two-outcome guys' deals worse. Merloni talked about this during the series this weekend -- how the teams that were positioned with toolsy guys who can run and put the ball in the play are getting more value for their dollar than the Yankees' grip and rip types.

Xander is a toolsy type, and while he's never been super fast, he'll swipe a base for you and go first to third. He plays a premium position and he puts the ball in play, so you would have thought going into this year that what might have seemed like a ridiculous contract was maybe actually a better contract than it might have seemed before a pitch clock, no shift world.

Which brings me to what I think is the most surprising Xander stat and one of the reasons why this year has been a disappointment. He has always been a fantastic two strike hitter. Not so this year. His 2-strike OBP is .267 and SLG is .532. Compare that to last year (.362/.687) and career (.291/.639).

He's getting on base far less with two strikes and he's doing less when he puts it in play. In a year when you would have thought that 2 strike hitting would be up for contact good-eye guys. It's really weird. But it's also a small sample, and the contract is 11 years.

My recollection of that day was that Chaim was in a really good mood, to the point that writers called it out. Now he had just closed the deal on Yoshida, but perhaps he also believed that the Padres overpay would mean he wouldn't look as bad for retaining Bogaerts at a more reasonable number.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Xander is quietly working his way back up to a more respectable season. He's up to 18 homers on the season, and his slugging is still at a disappointing .425, but he has hit .301 since the ASG and is hitting .462 in September. He's up 3.6 WAR on the season, which would have him second on the Red Sox behind Bello.

Not for nothing, but they're paying him an AAV of roughly $25.5M per season and he's been worth $28.75M this year (per FanGraphs). Maybe they expected more, but he's outperformed the value of his contract this year, at least if you think FanGraphs valuations are legitimate.

I also think he's the kind of hitter that will age pretty well and still be a valuable player when he moves off shortstop. I suppose the question will be where he ends up (the bat is obviously more valuable at 2b than it would be in LF), but when it's all said and done, I think they're going to get something like $240M out of value for a $280M contract and a guy you feel good about marketing to your fanbase.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

My recollection of that day was that Chaim was in a really good mood, to the point that writers called it out. Now he had just closed the deal on Yoshida, but perhaps he also believed that the Padres overpay would mean he wouldn't look as bad for retaining Bogaerts at a more reasonable number.

I don't think that's true at all. The Globe's Julian McWilliams said that Bloom asked the beat writers for a minute(s) when he found out the Bogaerts signed with the Padres. He then reported that Bloom went into a hallway (or something--away from the press but in their view), looked visibly shaken , composed himself before coming back to give a "trembling" statement.

Bloom was probably happy that he didn't pay that much money/years to Bogaerts but after him and Kennedy telling the fan base that signing Bogaerts was "their number one priority" for that offseason in the fall, I doubt that he was in a really good mood to tell the assembled press that Bogaerts was gone.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I don't think that's true at all. The Globe's Julian McWilliams said that Bloom asked the beat writers for a minute(s) when he found out the Bogaerts signed with the Padres. He then reported that Bloom went into a hallway (or something--away from the press but in their view), looked visibly shaken , composed himself before coming back to give a "trembling" statement.

Bloom was probably happy that he didn't pay that much money/years to Bogaerts but after him and Kennedy telling the fan base that signing Bogaerts was "their number one priority" for that offseason in the fall, I doubt that he was in a really good mood to tell the assembled press that Bogaerts was gone.

Perhaps my recollection was pre-Bogaerts signing when they thought they had both players?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Perhaps my recollection was pre-Bogaerts signing when they thought they had both players?

No doubt.

Bogaerts isn’t having his best year in SD but anything he would have done this year is so much better than the production we got from shortstop this year.

 

[chawson]

I don't think that's true at all. The Globe's Julian McWilliams said that Bloom asked the beat writers for a minute(s) when he found out the Bogaerts signed with the Padres. He then reported that Bloom went into a hallway (or something--away from the press but in their view), looked visibly shaken , composed himself before coming back to give a "trembling" statement.

Bloom was probably happy that he didn't pay that much money/years to Bogaerts but after him and Kennedy telling the fan base that signing Bogaerts was "their number one priority" for that offseason in the fall, I doubt that he was in a really good mood to tell the assembled press that Bogaerts was gone.

When I read that report, all I could think was how that all seemed like normal behavior for someone trying to summon a response on the fly to a shocking turn of events regarding a beloved public figure while being watched by reporters incentivized to dissect every gesture. Yet the broader takeaway was that Bloom was caught flat-footed, foolish and one-upped.

I’ll always be an X fan and I’m glad he salvaged much of his first season, but I really think that deal is going to be ghastly before it’s half done.

 

[jbupstate]

When I read that report, all I could think was how that all seemed like normal behavior for someone trying to summon a response on the fly to a shocking turn of events regarding a beloved public figure while being watched by reporters incentivized to dissect every gesture. Yet the broader takeaway was that Bloom was caught flat-footed, foolish and one-upped.

I’ll always be an X fan and I’m glad he salvaged much of his first season, but I really think that deal is going to be ghastly before it’s half done.

For crying out loud… who wasn’t caught flat-footed? Everyone thought and thinks the contract was foolish. One-upped?

San Diego didn’t overpay for Xander for this type of season. They paid to win the World Series.

For the Bloom haters out there, it’s the only thing you can 100% say he did the right thing.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

For crying out loud… who wasn’t caught flat-footed? Everyone thought and thinks the contract was foolish. One-upped?

San Diego didn’t overpay for Xander for this type of season. They paid to win the World Series.

For the Bloom haters out there, it’s the only thing you can 100% say he did the right thing.

Bloom was definitely caught flat footed, there’s no two ways about it. Which isn’t a great look for your President of Baseball Ops whose primary job is to be knowledgeable about what ever MLB team is doing.

If you don’t think that’s a big deal, I don’t know what to tell you. But it’s not a great look. Dan Duquette didn’t need a minute when Clemens left.

And what was Bloom right about? He wanted Bogaerts. He and Kennedy said that signing X was their “number one priority” last offseason. Those aren’t my words, that’s an exact quote. They didn’t accomplish their number one goal.

And BTW they were right.The team needs Bogaerts this year, no doubt about it. Would they want him in 11 years? Probably not but the issue isn’t 2035, it’s 2023. And the 2023 Red Sox could’ve used Bogaerts to plug up the black hole that is shortstop this year.

 

[jbupstate]

Bloom was definitely caught flat footed, there’s no two ways about it. Which isn’t a great look for your President of Baseball Ops whose primary job is to be knowledgeable about what ever MLB team is doing.

If you don’t think that’s a big deal, I don’t know what to tell you. But it’s not a great look. Dan Duquette didn’t need a minute when Clemens left.

And what was Bloom right about? He wanted Bogaerts. He and Kennedy said that signing X was their “number one priority” last offseason. Those aren’t my words, that’s an exact quote. They didn’t accomplish their number one goal.

And BTW they were right.The team needs Bogaerts this year, no doubt about it. Would they want him in 11 years? Probably not but the issue isn’t 2035, it’s 2023. And the 2023 Red Sox could’ve used Bogaerts to plug up the black hole that is shortstop this year.

I couldn’t disagree more. The contract wasn’t 1 year. Same as Eovaldi or Wacha. Xander alone wasn’t getting the Sox anywhere this year.

The second Xander went to free agency BLOOM knew there was a great chance he could leave. And WTF are they going to say when asked about Xander?

Here’s a question for you to answer for Bloom. Did you know Xander played injured and was taking efforts to manage such injury?

 

[scottyno]

I couldn’t disagree more. The contract wasn’t 1 year. Same as Eovaldi or Wacha. Xander alone wasn’t getting the Sox anywhere this year.

The second Xander went to free agency BLOOM knew there was a great chance he could leave. And WTF are they going to say when asked about Xander?

Here’s a question for you to answer for Bloom. Did you know Xander played injured and was taking efforts to manage such injury?

Instead of being 73-71 and unlikely to make the playoffs they'd be around 77-67 and slightly more likely to make the playoffs while being on the hook for a huge contract that would likely end badly. I'm sure everyone would have been thrilled with that. And they'd either be over the tax in another missed playoff season or they wouldn't have guys like Jansen and Martin, so they might not even be that much better.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I couldn’t disagree more. The contract wasn’t 1 year. Same as Eovaldi or Wacha. Xander alone wasn’t getting the Sox anywhere this year.

The second Xander went to free agency BLOOM knew there was a great chance he could leave. And WTF are they going to say when asked about Xander?

Here’s a question for you to answer for Bloom. Did you know Xander played injured and was taking efforts to manage such injury?

What else were they going to say about Bogarts? I don’t know how about, “we’re going to make every effort sign Bogaerts and keep him as. a Red Sox for his career.”

You don’t say signing Bogaerts is the “number one priority” of the off-season because it sets a level of expectations for your fanbase.

That is an incredibly loaded statement for the FO to make.

Let’s focus on this season, do you think Bogaets makes the 2023 Boston Red Sox better or worse?

And I’m not sure what you mean by your last question.

 

[Kliq]

For the 100th time, isn't the argument about re-signing Bogey based around not signing him to a compartivley moderate extension before he hit FA, as opposed to arguing the Sox should have matched the SD deal? I don't think anyone really on here was advocating for the Sox to match the SD offer.

 

[moondog80]

For the 100th time, isn't the argument about re-signing Bogey based around not signing him to a compartivley moderate extension before he hit FA, as opposed to arguing the Sox should have matched the SD deal? I don't think anyone really on here was advocating for the Sox to match the SD offer.

How would you feel right now if they had done that and they were looking at 6 more years at 160 million?

 

[Kliq]

How would you feel right now if they had done that and they were looking at 6 more years at 160 million?

Pretty good? Would you not like that deal?

 

[Ale Xander]

No doubt.

Bogaerts isn’t having his best year in SD but anything he would have done this year is so much better than the production we got from shortstop this year.

Furthermore, Petco is a huge pitchers park and Fenway is a hitters/doubles park.

 

[moondog80]

Pretty good? Would you not like that deal?

I would not. He's been good this year and obviously would have been an upgrade to what the Sox got from SS. But he's 30 years old, his SLG has dropped 5 years in a row, and the Padres are talking about moving him to 1B or LF. "We'll worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes" is how you build the Angels (or the 2025 Padres).

 

[scottyno]

Furthermore, Petco is a huge pitchers park and Fenway is a hitters/doubles park.

Good thing we have park adjusted stats to tell us he's having by far his worst offensive year since 2017 then. And that he's hit far worse on the road than at home.

 

[Rovin Romine]

For the 100th time, isn't the argument about re-signing Bogey based around not signing him to a compartivley moderate extension before he hit FA, as opposed to arguing the Sox should have matched the SD deal? I don't think anyone really on here was advocating for the Sox to match the SD offer.

They did sign him to a comparatively moderate extension before he hit FA.

April 1, 2019. The Sox signed Bogaerts to a six-year contract extension worth $132 million; the deal included an opt-out clause that Bogaerts could exercise after the 2022 season.

Which he did. Because he wanted more money, leveraged by his becoming a FA.

 

[8slim]

Pretty good? Would you not like that deal?

Same. I’d rather have him than Story, that’s for sure.

I’ll keep saying until I’m blue in the face… just because X had a less than stellar year in SD doesn’t mean he would have put up the exact same numbers here. That’s not how reality works. Everything is context dependent.

 

[jbupstate]

Sox fall off and the Xander, Betts stuff starts back up. At least it’s not the Eovaldi, Wacha and JDM. But add in the anti Bloom shit for signing Devers to replace losing out in Schwarber the Great.

Feels like the team is heading in a positive direction. A few really nice break through players this year. Some very good progress in the minors with players getting to AA and above. Healthy pitching is still a problem but that’s true for most teams in MLB.

 

[jbupstate]

Instead of being 73-71 and unlikely to make the playoffs they'd be around 77-67 and slightly more likely to make the playoffs while being on the hook for a huge contract that would likely end badly. I'm sure everyone would have been thrilled with that. And they'd either be over the tax in another missed playoff season or they wouldn't have guys like Jansen and Martin, so they might not even be that much better.

Serious question. How does WAR relate to team wins/losses?

The above references a positive four game swing with Xander. I look on Baseball Reference and the total WAR for Sox is around 33 for batters and pitchers.

So what would a team record be for a team of replacements?

 

[MFYankees]

Serious question. How does WAR relate to team wins/losses?

The above references a positive four game swing with Xander. I look on Baseball Reference and the total WAR for Sox is around 33 for batters and pitchers.

So what would a team record be for a team of replacements?

Oakland?

 

[scottyno]

Serious question. How does WAR relate to team wins/losses?

The above references a positive four game swing with Xander. I look on Baseball Reference and the total WAR for Sox is around 33 for batters and pitchers.

So what would a team record be for a team of replacements?

A 0 war team would average about 48 wins over an infinite sample size. Obviously it's not a perfect correlation to say "the war difference between X and the Sox shortstops is about 4 war so they'd have 4 wins", but it's a decent estimate. If we look at what he's really done X has actually been terrible for the Padres this year because he's been so bad in the clutch with a -1.8 win probability added, but I wouldn't assume that to carry over to Boston since it's likely just sample size noise.

 

[teddywingman]

Is it fair to say that Boston shortstops have lost at least 5 games this season by terrible defense?
I haven't even watched that much but I'm confident in that statement.

Add to that a complete lack of competitive hitting. I would like to wager that Red Sox short stops have seen less pitches than any other team's short stops all year.

WAR is so dumb. In ten years we'll laugh about it.

 

[moondog80]

Same. I’d rather have him than Story, that’s for sure.

I’ll keep saying until I’m blue in the face… just because X had a less than stellar year in SD doesn’t mean he would have put up the exact same numbers here. That’s not how reality works. Everything is context dependent.

I guess that’s true on some level but it also makes it impossible to evaluate any transaction. Maybe Babe Ruth would have become a slap hitter had he stayed in Boston, so actually that was a pretty good deal.

I know that’s an extreme example…in this case, Xander’s year has been squarely in line with his career trajectory (good contact, declining SLG) so while it’s possible staying in Boston would have caused something different to happen (which could have been a worse outcome too, this has to work both ways), I think the most reasonable guess is that he would have had more or less the same season.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

WAR is so dumb. In ten years we'll laugh about it.

Some have laughed at it FOR ten years.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Same. I’d rather have him than Story, that’s for sure.

I’ll keep saying until I’m blue in the face… just because X had a less than stellar year in SD doesn’t mean he would have put up the exact same numbers here. That’s not how reality works. Everything is context dependent.

And it's one thing to overpay for a player like X and get a .764 OPS and 3.7 WAR. You're not getting $25 million worth but at least you're getting some production.

The Sox let X walk which given the size and length of the deal is debatably OK. The issue is that they replaced him with a player that has a 36 OPS+ this year after missing most of the season while earning $20 million. Which one is the bigger waste of money? Which would you rather have?

I am not saying it would have been wise to give X that deal here in Boston. At the same time, instead of overpaying a lot and getting some production, the Sox have overpaid a bit and gotten nothing.

If you're going to let a big name player walk you must get replacement production somehow. SO FAR, that switch has not worked. Long way to go on both deals.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

And it's one thing to overpay for a player like X and get a .764 OPS and 3.7 WAR. You're not getting $25 million worth but at least you're getting some production.

The Sox let X walk which given the size and length of the deal is debatably OK. The issue is that they replaced him with a player that has a 36 OPS+ this year after missing most of the season while earning $20 million. Which one is the bigger waste of money? Which would you rather have?

I am not saying it would have been wise to give X that deal here in Boston. At the same time, instead of overpaying a lot and getting some production, the Sox have overpaid a bit and gotten nothing.

If you're going to let a big name player walk you must get replacement production somehow. SO FAR, that switch has not worked. Long way to go on both deals.

No, they're not getting $25m worth - if FanGraphs is seen as reputable in terms of their valuations (and I haven't seen anything on the board to suggest otherwise, but forgive me if I missed it) they're actually getting more. Currently he's been worth about $28m this year, per FG. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/xander-bogaerts/12161/stats?position=SS

Also, for some of us at least, this really has nothing to do with the Sox struggles the last two weeks. Some of us wanted Bogaerts resigned very badly in the off-season. I was one of them.

My main reasons were that I think the team needed a core bat from the right hand side, not only for the 2023 team but for the ostensibly contending window in 2025 or whenever the idea is that the team will actively try to do better than possibly make the 3rd wild card. I also didn't like the idea of punting the non-Story middle infield spot while waiting on Yorke and / or Mayer until 2025 (using Sox Prospects ETA) and hoping Mayer is more Julio Rodriguez than Jared Kelenic. This isn't revisionist history or a reaction to a couple of bad weeks, but something some of us were talking about in the off-season threads.

For the record, I'd assuredly take Bogaerts on a hypothetical 6yr / $146m deal (which I do believe he'd have taken at multiple points in time), and I think even as late as last October in their exclusive window just after the WS they probably could have gotten him for something like 7/$185m (which I'd have done as well). Once it got to the open market, the Sox (and everyone else) were blown away by the Padres after they lost out on Judge. But it didn't need to get to that point.

I think of this one as a Lester redux, and it was equally botched, at least in my opinion.

 

[rodderick]

I guess that’s true on some level but it also makes it impossible to evaluate any transaction. Maybe Babe Ruth would have become a slap hitter had he stayed in Boston, so actually that was a pretty good deal.

I know that’s an extreme example…in this case, Xander’s year has been squarely in line with his career trajectory (good contact, declining SLG) so while it’s possible staying in Boston would have caused something different to happen (which could have been a worse outcome too, this has to work both ways), I think the most reasonable guess is that he would have had more or less the same season.

His ISO is slighly higher than last year, any loss in slugging has been entirely BABIP based, if you took "declining SLG" to mean a loss in power that hasn't really manifested itself, even with all the wrist issues.

 

[moondog80]

His ISO is slighly higher than last year, any loss in slugging has been entirely BABIP based, if you took "declining SLG" to mean a loss in power that hasn't really manifested itself, even with all the wrist issues.

Fair enough, but I think the point stands that the default position has to be that this more or less the year he likely would have had if he had stayed in Boston.

 

[LoLsapien]

The first years of a free agency contract are expected to provide value far exceeding the average salary of the long term deal. The final years are expected to provide value that is less than the average salary, if normal aging curves are assumed. If a newly signed free agent does not provide significant excess value in the first years of a contract, this is highly concerning unless there's reason to anticipate a bounce back (ie. BABIP gods hated the player, freak injury that's unlikely to recur or having nagging effects, etc).

Prior to Xander's free agency there were lots of concerns expressed here about his future lack of viability at short. Difficult for me to see how this player would have fit into the team's future plans in the middle (story is superior defensively at either SS or 2nd) or corners (Devers and Casas bats have that covered) of the diamond at this salary, and we already have a defensive liability in left field.

 

[dhappy42]

The first years of a free agency contract are expected to provide value far exceeding the average salary of the long term deal. The final years are expected to provide value that is less than the average salary, if normal aging curves are assumed. If a newly signed free agent does not provide significant excess value in the first years of a contract, this is highly concerning unless there's reason to anticipate a bounce back (ie. BABIP gods hated the player, freak injury that's unlikely to recur or having nagging effects, etc).

Prior to Xander's free agency there were lots of concerns expressed here about his future lack of viability at short. Difficult for me to see how this player would have fit into the team's future plans in the middle (story is superior defensively at either SS or 2nd) or corners (Devers and Casas bats have that covered) of the diamond at this salary, and we already have a defensive liability in left field.

Pre-Yoshida, wasn't the idea that Bogaerts would slide over to 3B when Devers became a more-or-less FT DH. with Story paying SS until Mayer (presumably) got called up?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Pre-Yoshida, wasn't the idea that Bogaerts would slide over to 3B when Devers became a more-or-less FT DH. with Story paying SS until Mayer (presumably) got called up?

It was for me. I also think that if / when Mayer forced the issue, Bogaerts skill set and body type would have allowed him to learn over the years to become a decent enough LF, especially in Fenway Park had Devers been sticking at 3b and Yoshida moving to DH.

Maybe not (see Ramirez, Hanley) but Bogaerts - even with his defensive limitations, I think his solid fundamentals and ability to make plays when he got to the ball would have translated to a competent enough LF in 81 games a season at Fenway Park.

 

[jbupstate]

What makes anyone think Xander was going to sign with the Sox (for any amount) to move off shortstop?

He signed with the Padres and is playing shortstop while better shortstops play other positions. And they have a top tier prospect who is… a shortstop.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

What makes anyone think Xander was going to sign with the Sox (for any amount) to move off shortstop?

He signed with the Padres and is playing shortstop while better shortstops play other positions. And they have a top tier prospect who is… a shortstop.

Because you'd have been talking about 2025 if and when Mayer forced the issue. Maybe he'll still be playing SS in San Diego in 2025, who knows.

Not for nothing, but he's graded out as a decent enough SS this year. FanGraphs has Bogaerts at 6.3 for SS while Kim is 6.5 at 2b. Tatis they moved off SS before Bogaerts arrived, ostensibly to reduce the wear and tear on his body, but that happened in August of 2021 while Bogaerts still had a year and a half left in Boston.

 

[LoLsapien]

A huge amount of Bogies WAR value come from his ability to play shortstop. If his batting stats stay the same and you move him to a different position, his WAR drops. I'm not sure what the adjustment is (might try to look this up in a bit).

If we move X off shortstop and assume he is mediocre at best at his new position, and his batting value drops by a few percent per year, this contract is deeply underwater with years to go and we'll be blasting the now-former GM for signing this anchor of a contract and having no concept of effective team construction.

Story is playable with a questionable bat (though I'm bullish on his bat) because he is fantastic defensively at premium positions. Bogie does not have this valuable skill to fall back on. I'd much rather have Verdugo for $15M/year than X at $25 as Dugie plays high quality defense in RF, and due to their respective ages I wouldn't be shocked if their batting value looks similar over the next 5 years.

 

[scottyno]

A huge amount of Bogies WAR value come from his ability to play shortstop. If his batting stats stay the same and you move him to a different position, his WAR drops. I'm not sure what the adjustment is (might try to look this up in a bit).

Depends where he moves, and I think bref and fangraphs have slightly different adjustments, for bref it's (1 war is about 10 runs):

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

1. C: +9 runs
2. SS: +7 runs
3. 2B: +3 runs
4. CF: +2.5 runs
5. 3B: +2 runs
6. RF: -7 runs
7. LF: -7 runs
8. 1B: -9.5 runs
9. DH: -15 runs

 

[LoLsapien]

Awesome, thanks! Also, it turns out Dugie probably has a better bat than Xander already. His wOBA and xwOBA are higher each of the past two years.

 

[jbupstate]

Dugie plays high quality defense in RF,

Probably for another thread…

Verdugo played just over 100 games in LF in 2022 and graded poorly on defense. This year he had played well in RF per the eye test and the numbers.

That said… we know the metrics are funky with LF in Fenway. But people keep saying how atrocious Yoshida is in LF. How much of that could be attributed to the Monster? Is he really just a DH?

I’m not saying Yoshida is a good fielder. He is not but I’ve seen many players have adventures in LF.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What makes anyone think Xander was going to sign with the Sox (for any amount) to move off shortstop?

He signed with the Padres and is playing shortstop while better shortstops play other positions. And they have a top tier prospect who is… a shortstop.

I think this is an oft-overlooked factor in the negotiations. A player with his offensive profile is worth one thing at SS (probably more) and another as a LF or 3B or DH (probably less). The Sox were likely factoring an eventual position change into their offers while Bogaerts was looking (hoping?) to get paid like a SS for the entire length of his deal. Then the Padres came in and paid him "like a shortstop" and clearly didn't give a shit about what position he would play in two or ten years. Hard to compete with that sort of carefree spending.