Wk. 1 Pre-Game Thread: vs. Steelers

soxfan121 · Sep 7, 2015

ITP has set up a Q&A with a Steelers expert. If you have any questions about the Steelers and what to expect, please post 'em here, send me a PM or find a carrier pigeon. The piece will be published Thursday morning, just in time for your pregame enjoyment. Thanks for reading, everyone.

RedOctober3829 · Sep 7, 2015

Will Allen is the safety starting opposite Mike Mitchell. This Steelers secondary is truly awful.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2015-nfl-regular-season-pittsburgh-steelers-new-england-patriots-tickets-predictions-streaming-time-how-to-watch/2015/9/6/9269141/steelers-will-start-will-allen-at-ss-thursday-vs-the-patriots-not

lambeau · Sep 7, 2015

As the best receiver in football, Antonio Brown should provide an early stress test for the secondary. Without Bell, Ben will be throwing early and often.
We'll learn a lot about how vulnerable we are at CB. I suspect he'll line up all over. Will they target anyone in particular?

TheoShmeo · Sep 7, 2015

Good point, Lambeau. But I think we will learn about our new corners, and how those safeties look without Revis and Browner in the backfield, against all of the Pats' early opponents.

I might be guilty of being lulled into contentment by the pre-season performance of the corners -- and that's rarely a good idea -- but the offensive line worries me a lot more going into this game than the corners. All of the QBs were under pressure all pre-season long, and it appears that Stork missed practice on Saturday and may be suffering some concussion issues. The Pats' season last year turned around when the O-Line got better, as we know.

That they are starting off without four important pieces from last year's skill group also concerns me. None of Vereen, LaFell, Blount or Develin by himself is a show stopper. That all four will not be there (and of course Verreen is gone for good) on Thursday means that Tom will be working with a bunch of different parts, which could compound whatever problems the line might present.

Saints Rest · Sep 7, 2015

With all the hullaballoo over DG, I wonder if the actual play on the field for the Pats has been overshadowed. I have a lot of concerns about our won Patriots this week, regardless of the opponent:

How will the team deal with the general hangover form the euphoria of the SB win? How will they handle the specific celebration of Opening Night combined with raising the banner, etc?
This is the first Opening Game since 2003 without Big Vince Wilfork on the DLine. How will the new folks do in the middle?
Is Malcolm more than a one-hit wonder (admittedly, that one hit being one of the biggest single plays in NFL history)? Even beyond him, how does the rest of the secondary shake out past him and DMC? Can an improved pass rush makeup for a fall-off from last year's secondary's coverage abilities? (will there even be an improved pass rush?)
Who carries the rock? Does it matter as the OLine has looked awful so far in preseason?
Who catches the ball? Can Edelman step in with no ill effects from no pre-season? Who steps into LaFell's spot?
Can the OLine improve on their preseason performance? Who is the OLine between the tackles this season?
Can Brady improve on his preseason performance now that DG is off the docket (for now)?

nattysez · Sep 7, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
Will Allen is the safety starting opposite Mike Mitchell. This Steelers secondary is truly awful.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2015-nfl-regular-season-pittsburgh-steelers-new-england-patriots-tickets-predictions-streaming-time-how-to-watch/2015/9/6/9269141/steelers-will-start-will-allen-at-ss-thursday-vs-the-patriots-not

Which I think makes Stork's apparent injury that much more concerning. I think the Steelers' path to victory is to pressure Brady to help protect their secondary, and a weak o-line will play right into that strategy. The Pats are going to need a big game out of the RBs, which will make Blount's absence hurt that much more.

On the defensive side, I assume the Pats will do the same thing I just said the Steelers will do -- pressure Big Ben to make his rush his throws in order to protect the secondary and hope the backup RBs aren't overly effective.

Edited to add: Stork's not at practice again today. Hard to imagine he's going to be able to start in three days.

DaveRoberts'Shoes · Sep 7, 2015

No Stork at practice today... bleah

ShaneTrot · Sep 7, 2015

Really interested to see the whole offense together. Chandler and Gronk will be fun to watch.

This is the best set of NE pass rushers since 2003. Really deep, I am interested to see how much they play Nink and Jones with all these good back ups. They played those two way too much the last few years. Easley is not the typical Pats DT but he has looked like a beast rushing the passer in the pre-season. This could be a 50+ sack team that always generates good pressure.

How much will Mayo play? I wonder if they play 2 LBs and 3 safeties in their base defense.

Will the special teams be as dominant after the coaching change? I assume so because the core group of players remains the same.

Ed Hillel · Sep 7, 2015

Fwiw:

@jeffphowe: Bryan Stork still plans to play Thursday, per source. He has missed the last two practices, though.

crystalline · Sep 7, 2015

Saints Rest said:
<p>

With all the hullaballoo over DG, I wonder if the actual play on the field for the Pats has been overshadowed. I have a lot of concerns about our won Patriots this week, regardless of the opponent:

How will the team deal with the general hangover form the euphoria of the SB win? How will they handle the specific celebration of Opening Night combined with raising the banner, etc?

This is the first Opening Game since 2003 without Big Vince Wilfork on the DLine. How will the new folks do in the middle?

Is Malcolm more than a one-hit wonder (admittedly, that one hit being one of the biggest single plays in NFL history)? Even beyond him, how does the rest of the secondary shake out past him and DMC? Can an improved pass rush makeup for a fall-off from last year's secondary's coverage abilities? (will there even be an improved pass rush?)

Who carries the rock? Does it matter as the OLine has looked awful so far in preseason?

Who catches the ball? Can Edelman step in with no ill effects from no pre-season? Who steps into LaFell's spot?

Can the OLine improve on their preseason performance? Who is the OLine between the tackles this season?

Can Brady improve on his preseason performance now that DG is off the docket (for now)?

I don't have as many worries as you.
Basically, I want to see what both lines look like. I think the team this year goes as the lines go.

I'm optimistic about the secondary and the WR playing well, and I have no concerns about Brady if he is healthy and gets protection.

I am hoping Gronk+Chandler gives the Pats a more TE-based offense than we saw last year. That could be fun to watch if they get it going.

lambeau · Sep 7, 2015

This is White's big chance--they must have some confidence in him or they wouldn't have cut Gray, but if he sucks Lewis is right there to leapfrog him.

ScubaSteveAvery · Sep 7, 2015

Ed Hillel said:
Fwiw:

@jeffphowe: Bryan Stork still plans to play Thursday, per source. He has missed the last two practices, though.

Stork currently going through concussion protocol per Breer. Availability for Thursday unclear.

Edit: This is really from Rapaport. Saw Breer RT - so take it for what it's worth.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/640938711933431808

dynomite · Sep 7, 2015

Can't believe it's already time for one of these. Time flies when you're Super Bowl champions and in the midst of a Kafka-esque faux scandal.

One for the thumb!!!!!

SeoulSoxFan said:
Week 1 version of the Steelers is incomplete. They have two huge offensive pieces missing in Martavis Bryant & Le'Veon Bell.

Don't forget that the Steelers are also without Pouncey, their All-Pro Center.

As Patriots fans saw while Stork was out at the beginning of last year, even good offenses can look pedestrian when the offensive line is in flux. Even worse for the Steelers, the Patriots front 7 looked very good at times this preseason and could be an explosive unit.

I'm going to be looking for Patricia to test the middle of the Steelers offensive line right away on passing downs, perhaps bringing Mayo or Collins up the middle.

mulluysavage · Sep 7, 2015

In recent seasons, the Pats have often taken a let's-see-who-can-have-success approach to RB. If someone isn't gaining yards (or holding onto the ball), they put someone else in. I wouldn't be surprised to see them start Bolden, given BB's trust of vets, and just start shuffling through until the run is working. That is, if they don't just rely on the pass if it's working and the run game isn't. We've also seen them totally abandon the run in games.

Tony C · Sep 7, 2015

TheoShmeo said:
Good point, Lambeau. But I think we will learn about our new corners, and how those safeties look without Revis and Browner in the backfield, against all of the Pats' early opponents.

I might be guilty of being lulled into contentment by the pre-season performance of the corners -- and that's rarely a good idea -- but the offensive line worries me a lot more going into this game than the corners. All of the QBs were under pressure all pre-season long, and it appears that Stork missed practice on Saturday and may be suffering some concussion issues. The Pats' season last year turned around when the O-Line got better, as we know.

That they are starting off without four important pieces from last year's skill group also concerns me. None of Vereen, LaFell, Blount or Develin by himself is a show stopper. That all four will not be there (and of course Verreen is gone for good) on Thursday means that Tom will be working with a bunch of different parts, which could compound whatever problems the line might present.

Not worried, either, about the DBs -- Big Ben and that offense have the skill to put that worry back in, but the Pats are fortunate that they're missing a few key offensive parts. I love the Pats' defensive front and think the whole D will be a lot of fun to watch.

On the offensive side, my worries are less about the OL -- the preseason repped nothing in that regard, as guys are just now coming back. Missing Stork would suck, but I think that'll be fine. I worry more about the skill positions -- a potentially overhyped up Brady, a depleted receiver corps, and neither Blount nor Gray. Edelman and Amendola having big days will be key -- I suspect the Steelers will swarm Gronk.

lambeau · Sep 7, 2015

They say Ryan Shazier is their tight end-killer--the fast LB that can stay with them--but two TE's?

I think Markus Wheaton will be in the slot, maybe with Brown on him; and outside they'll start Sammie Coates, the Amari Cooper clone from Auburn.

amarshal2 · Sep 7, 2015

lambeau said:
They say Ryan Shazier is their tight end-killer--the fast LB that can stay with them--but two TE's?

I think Markus Wheaton will be in the slot, maybe with Brown on him; and outside they'll start Sammie Coates, the Amari Cooper clone from Auburn.

Sammie Coates is not like Amari Cooper. He plays much bigger and is not a very polished route runner but he can go vertical and contest. Amari is the most polished route runner to come out of college in a decade. He's not much shorter than Coates but he plays smaller.

Ed Hillel · Sep 7, 2015

lambeau said:
They say Ryan Shazier is their tight end-killer--the fast LB that can stay with them--but two?

Shazier is 6 foot 1. He could cover them and still not stop them.

RedOctober3829 · Sep 7, 2015

amarshal2 said:
Sammie Coates is not like Amari Cooper. He plays much bigger and is not a very polished route runner but he can go vertical and contest. Amari is the most polished route runner to come out of college in a decade. He's not much shorter than Coates but he plays smaller.

Coates also has terrible hands.

cornwalls@6 · Sep 7, 2015

Echoing others here, really interested in watching this front seven play, and seeing how they are deployed/in what combinations in a real game plane situation. Excited to see Jones and Collins hitting their early prime years. With Easley and Sheard also in the mix, along with Nink, they should have the depth and versatility to be very aggressive and creative with their fronts and blitz packages. As concerned about the secondary as I also am, I'm cautiously optimistic they can grow into an effective, complimentary unit., with the kind of pressure they should consistently get up front. And BR et al should provide a stiff first test. I cannot wait to watch this game.

lambeau · Sep 7, 2015

It will be equally fascinating to see the offense evolve--more two TE's, or more two RB's? More Amendola, or Travaris Cadet? Will Dobson step up? So many unknowns. What'll work?

tims4wins · Sep 8, 2015

Given LaFell's absence, really hoping Chandler is 100% healthy

Saints Rest · Sep 8, 2015

tims4wins said:
Given LaFell's absence, really hoping Chandler is 100% healthy

I would say that given Lafell's absence, I am really hoping that we can see even moderate improvement form Aaron Dobson. Dobson's 2013 stats were actually pretty decent: 37 rec, 519 yes, 4TD, long of 81. This numbers are not far from Lafell's averages before becoming a starter with NE.

KiltedFool · Sep 8, 2015

The Steelers' OL is significantly improved, they've been together for an extended span, even the backups (Chris Hubbard and Cody Wallace have time in service with the Steelers, Doug Legursky has started a Super Bowl in place of an injured Pouncey before. Mike Munchak has been working his OL Whisperer role with them for over a year now. The line should be at the least decent.

Darius Heyward-Bey will see more action than Coates. He's a more polished route runner, a special teams guy, and a willing blocker and is more familiar with the system and Big Ben. Coates is very raw, but may take some Martavis Bryant spots (Go routes or red zone where he can maximize his size).

There are signs of a lot more hybrid roles within the defense, the drafting choices and personnel give a whiff that the long-running 3-4 will also sometimes morph to more of a 4-3 based on situation. There are signs of Cover 2 concepts being installed (with attendant mistakes and resulting massive yards and points during preseason) in th ebackend. Recall Tomlin comes from Tampa 2, he didn't displace Lebeau's Cover 3 when he arrived initially, but he was seen actively coaching Cover 2 techniques during training camp this year. And what is one thing you need to make a Cover 2 work? Fast as hell inside linebacker(s).

The Steelers defense has looked atrocious, though there have been very few snaps all preseason that had the starting defense on the field. There's going to be a lot of learning and acclimating for the Steelers this season on that side of the ball, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brady carved the hell out of them. Like most teams that gel over time, this game is likely to be the weakest game for the defense, so you couldn't catch them at a better time.

LeBeau's defenses used to give cushions and tackle the catch, knowing most teams couldn't sustain 15 play drives without making a mistake that would kill the drive. Brady and the Patriots can run a drive like that while reading a novel and drinking coffee. The times the Steelers have been successful was when they did more press and jamming of the receivers. Don't know if they have the personnel to do that, I doubt it.

I'll be interested to see how Cameron Heyward fares against the line, he's their best DL. Stephon Tuitt has a lot of talent, we'll see if he can make the traditional second year jump.

Warren Sapp dubbed the Steelers old and slow many years ago, now they're young and fast as hell, but they're also pretty green.

Oh and Harrison can still eat someone every once in a while. He's still a beast just on a limited snap count.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Sep 8, 2015

I'm curious to know (for other purposes) from people who follow the Pats pretty closely.

Does the 7 point spread seem high to you? Given that the Pats are the highest favorite on the board this week, it doesn't seem that the general public seems that confident that the Pats will win.

Thoughts?

Ed Hillel · Sep 9, 2015

Looks like it's going to rain all day and pour tomorrow night. Wish Blount was healthy.

Mr. Littlejeans · Sep 9, 2015

Just got back from my daughter's basketball game. Tip-off was at noon, February 2, and the game ended this morning. Anything interesting happen in the offseason while I was gone? Anyway, looking forward to the game tomorrow!

jablo1312 · Sep 9, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
I'm curious to know (for other purposes) from people who follow the Pats pretty closely.

Does the 7 point spread seem high to you? Given that the Pats are the highest favorite on the board this week, it doesn't seem that the general public seems that confident that the Pats will win.
Thoughts?

Seems about right, considering a couple of elements:

-Pats are at home, where they've been incredible the last 15 years, even after accounting for HFA (I believe Brady is 90-15 at home as a starter).
-The Steelers are missing Bell, arguably the best running back in the league, and certainly right up there with Charles and Forte as the most dynamic pass catching RB in football. Additionally, they're missing Martavis Bryant, expected to be the 2nd or 3rd WR, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey.
-So you'd expect the Steelers offense to be somewhat limited, although still solid with Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown around. Their defense is obviously not as strong a unit (30th in DVOA last season) and will be facing one of the leagues best offenses. That offense, in an interesting coincidence, will also be missing starters at WR (LaFell), RB (Blount) and center (Stork, who hasn't practiced all week and is very doubtful to play). The difference being (and this is certainly arguable) that the Pats success on offense is more scheme than player dependent and not having Blount + Lafell will hurt them less than not having Bell + Bryant will hurt the Steelers. I can't say which team will miss their starting center more, though I'd lean toward the Pats considering that they'll be starting several rookies on the interior OL.

With both teams at full strength, and the Pats at home, I'd predict the spread would be closer to 5.5 or so. 7 seems pretty reasonable considering what we know; it opened closer to 6 at most books and has moved between 6.5 and 7.5 since the Brady news came down last weekend. The fact that it's the highest spread this week is mostly a scheduling quirk, with a lot of similarly rated teams playing each other, and several match-ups where the superior team is playing on the road.

Wk. 1 Pre-Game Thread: vs. Steelers

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