Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

[grimshaw]

I think the Sox have the financial advantage to slow down the Santana market too while Boras waits on other teams best offers on JDM.

I don't think it will become a case where they are on plan C or D. Obviously Santana is a large step down, but it sounds as though DD isn't having any of Boras initial asking price and won't do something insane.
You have to figure the other teams can't beat the Sox' best offer on a free agent they are targeting.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Man I’d love to add Machado. Won’t happen, but it’s fun to dream.

 

[MikeM]

I think the Sox have the financial advantage to slow down the Santana market too while Boras waits on other teams best offers on JDM.

I don't think it will become a case where they are on plan C or D. Obviously Santana is a large step down, but it sounds as though DD isn't having any of Boras initial asking price and won't do something insane.
You have to figure the other teams can't beat the Sox' best offer on a free agent they are targeting.

IDK, on the flip side that kind of hangs on a surface assumption we've all been running with that the Sox are ultimately ok with *any* significant bump in payroll.

There is always the behind the scenes possibility of that not actually being the case. I mean for reminders sake, the jump from $197m the last 2 years to $230m+ in 2018 isn't exactly a small one.

 

[SydneySox]

Man I’d love to add Machado. Won’t happen, but it’s fun to dream.

Well, not to entirely copy another post, but David Price is also a good example here.

We aren't likely to get him directly from Baltimore (Tampa Bay) and he doesn't seem to really like us (David Price) but here he is a year or so later.

 

[nvalvo]

If DD can pry Votto out of Cincinnati and sign Martinez that would settle a lot of concerns ... He'd have to shed about $20-25 million in payroll to stay under the 237 cap and still have room to sign Nunez and a pen arm.

Votto sounds serious about not waiving his no-trade clause. Nuñez isn't coming here; we can't guarantee him playing time.

 

[SydneySox]

Well we could if we had to trade Devers and he got to play third.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Nuñez isn't coming here; we can't guarantee him playing time.

If he's healthy, we can guarantee Nunez plenty of time at 2nd base til Pedey returns. Thereafter, Pedroia will undoubtedly need some days off, as will X and Devers. There may be no other teams guaranteeing him a starting job and even if so, he may value playing for a contender more than playing for a rebuilding team. Money will also be a factor. It'll be interesting to see where he signs and for how much.

 

[ehaz]

If he's healthy, we can guarantee Nunez plenty of time at 2nd base til Pedey returns. Thereafter, Pedroia will undoubtedly need some days off, as will X and Devers. There may be no other teams guaranteeing him a starting job and even if so, he may value playing for a contender more than playing for a rebuilding team. Money will also be a factor. It'll be interesting to see where he signs and for how much.

Even if we can't get Nunez, there are enough veteran middle infielders on the market that they should get someone. Jose Reyes, Howie Kendrick, Chase Utley, etc., are less desirable than Nunez, but better than Hernandez + pray Pedroia doesn't have a setback.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Sounds like Ohtani has a damaged UCL.

 

[grimshaw]

If he's healthy, we can guarantee Nunez plenty of time at 2nd base til Pedey returns. Thereafter, Pedroia will undoubtedly need some days off, as will X and Devers. There may be no other teams guaranteeing him a starting job and even if so, he may value playing for a contender more than playing for a rebuilding team. Money will also be a factor. It'll be interesting to see where he signs and for how much.

Admittedly I haven't heard a peep about teams linked to Nunez, but DD has already said they were likely to fill Pedey's hole internally. Guessing that means Marco Hernandez, Lin or a hopefully no longer concussed Holt

I bet he can make himself at least 15-20 million over two years if not a 3rd year. Hard to see him taking a lot less to stay in Boston for his one big payday.

The Braves, Royals or Mets could be a fit. The O's and Jays may have 3b holes in the near future too.

 

[nvalvo]

My guess is back to SF to replace Panda.

 

[chawson]

Don’t think Nunez is our guy. I’d like to see what’s really up with Marco, but it’s risky if he busts and Pedroia isn’t the same.

Kinsler is 35 and coming off what looks to be a pretty unlucky year. Had a .244 BABIP, yet made more hard contact than any year in his career. The end is coming for him sometime, but he could be a sneaky 60 xbh guy in 2018 playing second, first, and DH and a good hedge against Pedroia trying to rush back.

The Mets and Angels has reported interest and GM Al Avila indicated they were close to moving him. He’s cheap at $7M or so against the AAV.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I did, mistakenly. X is not a fringe SS.

However, SS pretty much was abysmal around the league last year. If the Sox planned to keep Machado at SS and extend him, that could be a great way to upgrade long-term.

Other than CF and 3B, SS was the third highest WAR position in MLB last year on average. You have to get down to slot 16 to get to 0.2, 17 to go negative. I’m not sure where you’re getting it was abysmal. If anything there’s more good and young SSs in the league now than perhaps ever.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Don’t think Nunez is our guy. I’d like to see what’s really up with Marco, but it’s risky if he busts and Pedroia isn’t the same.

Kinsler is 35 and coming off what looks to be a pretty unlucky year. Had a .244 BABIP, yet made more hard contact than any year in his career. The end is coming for him sometime, but he could be a sneaky 60 xbh guy in 2018 playing second, first, and DH and a good hedge against Pedroia trying to rush back.

The Mets and Angels has reported interest and GM Al Avila indicated they were close to moving him. He’s cheap at $7M or so against the AAV.

I’d take Kinsler as a dump in a heartbeat and have said that since the offseason started. He’d be a great fill in and then find a role for him when Pedroia comes back. I don’t see any reason why Detroit would want to hold him hostage and not save their money.

 

[turnthe2]

I’d take Kinsler as a dump in a heartbeat and have said that since the offseason started. He’d be a great fill in and then find a role for him when Pedroia comes back. I don’t see any reason why Detroit would want to hold him hostage and not save their money.

I believe Kinsler has a limited no trade clause. Last off-season, I recall him to be holding Detroit hostage wanting to only waive it if he received an extension. Not sure where that stands at the moment.

It would be interesting having Kinsler and Pedroia on the same MLB team given their history together at ASU.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I believe Kinsler has a limited no trade clause. Last off-season, I recall him to be holding Detroit hostage wanting to only waive it if he received an extension. Not sure where that stands at the moment.

It would be interesting having Kinsler and Pedroia on the same MLB team given their history together at ASU.

Not sure what you’re referencing about last season, but Cots doesn’t list any kind of no trade clause (http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/) nor does spotrac (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/detroit-tigers/ian-kinsler-880/). Also not sure where the $7M AAV figure came from above - it’s $15M - but they could possibly get a subsidy and if they’re blowing out for a year, why not?

 

[turnthe2]

Not sure what you’re referencing about last season, but Cots doesn’t list any kind of no trade clause (http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/) nor does spotrac (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/detroit-tigers/ian-kinsler-880/). Also not sure where the $7M AAV figure came from above - it’s $15M - but they could possibly get a subsidy and if they’re blowing out for a year, why not?

What I gather from the article after reading it again, he has a 10 team limited NTC.

From November 2016:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/ian-kinsler-no-trade-clause-wont-waive-without-extension-dodgers-tigers-trade-rumors.html

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

That’s weird, those sites are usually pretty accurate. Wonder what the 10 team list looks like if it’s true. I’d assume Sox are on it as those usually are big market team focused.

 

[chawson]

Also not sure where the $7M AAV figure came from above - it’s $15M - but they could possibly get a subsidy and if they’re blowing out for a year, why not?

There’s something weird about Kinsler’s 2018 salary where the Rangers and Tigers already paid for the buyouts, so it’s only $6M against the luxury tax, actually. I think Speier had it at some point but Tim Britton covers it here: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20171109/what-red-sox-should-do-this-offseason

Makes him even more compelling. Kinsler would be additionally helpful to us because by the time Pedroia comes back, we’ll know whether we want to keep playing Hanley or cut him to keep his option from vesting.

 

[Devizier]

After five years of MLB ball and more than 2500 PA his OPS+ is 100 and his BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average is -28.

He is not the problem with the Sox, but he is what he is and that is not a star.

He's 25 and his last 3 years he's posted WRC+ of 111, 115, and 96.
His three year WRC+ is sixth among shortstops (behind Seager, Correa, Lindor, Cozart, and Cabrera).
His three year fWAR is 4th in baseball, behind Lindor, Seager, and Correa.

That is a ludicrous definition of fringe.

 

[chawson]

Hazen trying to unload Greinke’s 34-37 seasons (4/$127M) so they can throw more money at JDM.

Would be a brutal thing for Cashman to do if that’s how he wanted to spend the money.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Hazen trying to unload Greinke’s 34-37 seasons (4/$127M) so they can throw more money at JDM.

Would be a brutal thing for Cashman to do if that’s how he wanted to spend the money.

I can’t find the list specifically, but I’m certain NY is a team on his no-trade list.

I did find that he also has a $2m bonus if he’s traded.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2586013-zack-greinke-to-diamondbacks-latest-contract-details-comments-reaction.amp.html

 

[BuellMiller]

Question, wrt to players with 1 year left on their deal like Machado and qualifying offers: The MLB glossary on QOs says to be eligible "That player spent the entire season on that team's roster (in-season acquisitions are ineligible)." I'm assuming that means starting opening day? Does that give the seller (e.g. the Orioles with Machado) a little more leverage now (coupled with getting a full regular season of MM, instead of just two months, or is it still better to wait until July 31 and see who will try to push all the chips in then.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

Question, wrt to players with 1 year left on their deal like Machado and qualifying offers: The MLB glossary on QOs says to be eligible "That player spent the entire season on that team's roster (in-season acquisitions are ineligible)." I'm assuming that means starting opening day? Does that give the seller (e.g. the Orioles with Machado) a little more leverage now (coupled with getting a full regular season of MM, instead of just two months, or is it still better to wait until July 31 and see who will try to push all the chips in then.

If Machado is traded this week, whichever team gets him will be able to give him a qualifying offer at the end of the 2018 season, and of course receive draft pick compensation if he leaves. The O's would receive a larger package for him now, as opposed to at the trade deadline anyway. So yes, Baltimore has way more leverage now.

 

[sean1562]

The NYY seem like exactly the kind of team Grienke would reject a trade to.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Hard pass, please

 

[moondog80]

I'm OK if he's plan C. Hit .213 last year but a ridiculously high walk rate gave him a .344 OBP. Could be the next Napoli.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I'd love to grab Greinke just to be able to groom him for his future career in the front office. But it's hard to see how it would make sense for us to pick up that contract.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

 

[MikeM]

Todd Frazier?

Somebody interviewing DD needs to ask more about his thoughts on the 2018 budget beyond a willingness to go over the LT (which we could never avoid without a pure subtraction approach anyway).

 

[Puffy]

Hard pass, please

Frazier could give them some defensive flexibility, I guess. I don't even really see him as an offensive upgrade over Moreland. If they are thinking someone to cover 1B and 3B for spells during Devers first full season, and don't want to go the Nunez route, I'd rather a better all around player like Neil Walker, who has played some 1B, 2B, and 3B. He could start 2018 at 2B and then shift around depending on his health. If he ends up getting multiple years, he could be insurance for Devers if he needs to move to 1B.

 

[chawson]

Cards "making progress" on an Ozuna trade, per Rosenthal.

Very interested to see what goes back to the Marlins.

 

[pinkunicornsox]

The Red Sox aren't guaranteed they will nab Martinez. Having backup plans is not a bad idea. Despite what some Soshers think, DD might not want to sacrifice the future by signing Hosmer, Moose or Santana. If that is the case then that puts DD in the market for Frazier, Lomo, or Alonso to name a few.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

and that's fine, but LoMo and even Alonso are better options than Frazier (and some embedded Yankee bias is showing here admittedly, but please, just no).

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Frazier could give them some defensive flexibility, I guess. I don't even really see him as an offensive upgrade over Moreland.

I'd be curious what you're basing that on. Frazier has a career wRC+ of 111, Moreland of 98. That's not exactly a yawning chasm, but it's not a trivial difference either. Frazier has been the better hitter of the two in six of the seven years they've been in the league together, and in the other year they were essentially the same (Frazier 116 wRC+, Moreland 117). Frazier walks more, hits the ball in the air more, and is a better baserunner. They're more or less the same age, so it's not as if Frazier is likely to decline sooner. I'm not sure how he could be anything but an offensive upgrade over Moreland.

 

[Devizier]

One thing Frazier has going for him is that he's a massive pull flyball hitter.

For a (relatively) small contract he would be a good get. I figured he'd be more expensive than the 1B/DH types on account of his ability to play a premium defensive position, but maybe not by much? Or perhaps the Sox want to be able to rest Devers/move him to 1B occasionally.

 

[grimshaw]

Hazen trying to unload Greinke’s 34-37 seasons (4/$127M) so they can throw more money at JDM.

Would be a brutal thing for Cashman to do if that’s how he wanted to spend the money.

I don't understand this at all. Unless they think they can sign a good pitcher along with Martinez, how are the D-Backs better after moving Greinke?

 

[grimshaw]

Cards "making progress" on an Ozuna trade, per Rosenthal.

Very interested to see what goes back to the Marlins.

Cameron is speculating Alcantara and Flaherty.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-you-pay-more-for-ozuna-or-machado/

 

[chawson]

I don't understand this at all. Unless they think they can sign a good pitcher along with Martinez, how are the D-Backs better after moving Greinke?

It's curious, yeah. But they're probably right that Greinke's 34-37 seasons aren't worth $137.6M. Even a straight salary dump would work for them.

 

[moondog80]

I don't understand this at all. Unless they think they can sign a good pitcher along with Martinez, how are the D-Backs better after moving Greinke?

This gets into the discussion that crops up here every so often about whether player opt-outs are good for the team, but maybe it makes sense to always try and shop a long term deal if the first few years go well, and then reallocate the money into another long term deal? So instead of all six years of Zack Geinke's deal, you get the first two years of Greinkie's deal, first two of JDs, and the first two of the next guy's deal, etc. In theory, it makes them better simply because is 4 years younger than Greinke.

 

[chawson]

Cameron is speculating Alcantara and Flaherty.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-you-pay-more-for-ozuna-or-machado/

Wow, that would give the Cards eight major league outfielders.

 

[MikeM]

If Machado is traded this week, whichever team gets him will be able to give him a qualifying offer at the end of the 2018 season, and of course receive draft pick compensation if he leaves. The O's would receive a larger package for him now, as opposed to at the trade deadline anyway. So yes, Baltimore has way more leverage now.

You have to also note that any 2018 LT offender that trades for him now only receives a post 4th round pick there under the new CBA. Which leaves non-projected offenders, who get a post 1st, a little extra incentive to be more aggressive with their offer.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Red Sox have reached out to the Orioles about trading for Manny Machado.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/13/red-sox-called-orioles-about-manny-machado/ZrkJG1dOgHga6dinuG9snN/story.html?camp=bg:brief:rss:feedly&rss_id=feedly_rss_brief&s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:twitter&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

 

[RedOctober3829]

moved to News Only thread

 

[MikeM]

Well, you can probably confirm Bour being up for trade grabs now after seeing Ozuna get dealt.

Might come cheap'ish too I guess given the surrounding market considerations.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Red Sox have reached out to the Orioles about trading for Manny Machado.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/13/red-sox-called-orioles-about-manny-machado/ZrkJG1dOgHga6dinuG9snN/story.html?camp=bg:brief:rss:feedly&rss_id=feedly_rss_brief&s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:twitter&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

Due diligence. Nothing more.

 

[chawson]

Well, you can probably confirm Bour being up for trade grabs now after seeing Ozuna get dealt.

Might come cheap'ish too I guess given the surrounding market considerations.

I have no idea why anyone would trade for Justin Bour with this many first basemen available cash only.

 

[MikeM]

I have no idea why anyone would trade for Justin Bour with this many first basemen available cash only.

Because he goes cheap'ish for the same reason, and you end up liking him more overall then any of those FA alternatives?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Because he goes cheap'ish for the same reason, and you end up liking him more overall then any of those FA alternatives?

While true, it doesn't fall within chawson's established narrative.

I can see more than a few cash-conscious teams getting in on Bour

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Edit: too slow